Given the current sanctions I think its safe to say Iran wont get a gattling gun - leave alone fighters from anyone any-time soon. Even prior to this the last major Russian fighter sale to Iran was way back in 92-93 and even the now aborted S-300 deliveries were held up for 10+ years.
Anyway this technology is thoroughly compromised - It is safe to assume that any technology given to Chinese client states like Pakistan has already been compromised .... as has technology that has been indirectly given to Pakistan via KSA and UAEAF (since they hire large numbers of Pakistani contract pilots - by some estimates 70% of their fighter core) ............ This basically means that All F-16s up-to the Block 50/52 are directly compromised - and that the Chinese have a very good understanding of the capabilities of the Mirage 2000-9, F-15E(S), F-16E (Block 60) and Eurofighter Typhoon.
By comparison a basic C/D model sale can hardly constitute a breach.
Since the current shia government is basically a puppet controlled by the ayatollahs in Qom and the IRGC in Tehran - i dont think we'll even have to wait for a war for these to be flown across the border.
Me thinks the day the final US battalion steps off Iraqi soil - we'll witness a grand cross border flypast
|Quoting Lumberton (Reply 7):|
It is still capable of putting ordnance on target, and will be for the foreseeable future.
So are Mig-17, 19s, Canberra bombers, and gloster meteors.......................... that doesn't mean one has to factor them as seriously - especially given the sophistication of electronic warfare these days.
Remember the Syrian reactor strike by Israel (last year?) ? They used a suter like computer attack programme not just to fool Syria's Russian supplied Pantsyr and TOR-M systems - but also US supplied Turkish radars and fighters - especially given that the areas of Turkey flown over have a heavy military deployment owing to the Kurdish majority of that region.
If Israel can fool US made equipment sold to a NATO ally - I think its safe to assume they can fool and equipment sold to a second rung ally.
|Quoting Fridgmus (Reply 8):|
but do they have enough competent personnel to fly these high performance aircraft?
Simple answer - NO - emphatically NO!!!!
ever since Rumsfeld- Paul Bremers extremely ill-advised disbandment of the Iraqi military and ba'ath party - the old sunni dominated army - went underground and is dead set against the new shia dominated government.
|Quoting Jetjack74 (Reply 10):|
Sure, I think they have probably many intellectually capable individuals. I'm sure there are some Iraqis around the world who might consider returning Iraq to serve in the armed forces there.
|Quoting Jetjack74 (Reply 10):|
There are millions of Iraqi's who are attending higher education in Europe and here in the US.
Again no disrespect meant - but in this case there is much truth to John Kerrys remarks during his failed presidential bid "Study hard and get good marks or you'll be drafted off to Iraq".
Tell me what makes you think that Iraqi families who can afford or have scraped enough to put their children through an exorbitantly costly US college education would allow them to go off to serve in the military? they will probably return for a lot of reasons - but serving in the military will most certainly not be one of them. ................... especially given that the army was the primary tool of terror and repression.........and was the primary reason most of them left Iraq in the first place.
Since all top doctors, academics, scientists, and military people - had to - compulsorily - be part of the Ba'ath party - its is safe to assume that till the laws preventing former Ba'ath officials from joining the government are revoked - the old core of intellectual/entrepreneurial/military capital cannot return to the fold even if they want to.
Before 1990 Iraq was way ahead of India in virtually every human development indices - per capita income/ infant mortality..... you name it. Iraq was also the only country in the ME outside of Israel to have an indigenous health care system comparable to any in the first world.................... and more per capita research output that the entire Indian sub-continent put together.
But since the de-baathification order of 2004 if anyone expects these people to come back and work without rancour / agenda / bitterness - dream on - especially given that these former intellectuals now form the core of the sunni resistance/Al-Qaeda.
Forget India - it'll be a miracle if they manage to catch up with Rwanda any-time soon.