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Faro
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RE: Canada F-35 Order Facing Scrutiny

Tue May 03, 2011 9:41 am

Quoting Oroka (Reply 99):
Well, the Conservatives now have a majority government, Canada will be getting its CF-35s

Indeed, with a comfortable majority! Congrats to all the pro-F-35 a.netters, you will have your fighter for better or worse...

Faro
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Powerslide
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RE: Canada F-35 Order Facing Scrutiny

Tue May 03, 2011 10:15 am

Quoting Oroka (Reply 99):

Not just a great day for Canada, but a great day for the Canadian Military. Finally they'll get the equipment they deserve.
 
connies4ever
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RE: Canada F-35 Order Facing Scrutiny

Tue May 03, 2011 1:05 pm

Quoting Oroka (Reply 99):
Well, the Conservatives now have a majority government, Canada will be getting its CF-35s
Quoting faro (Reply 100):

Indeed, with a comfortable majority! Congrats to all the pro-F-35 a.netters, you will have your fighter for better or worse...
Quoting powerslide (Reply 101):
Not just a great day for Canada, but a great day for the Canadian Military. Finally they'll get the equipment they deserve.

There's no doubt the F-35 program will now go ahead. I'll leave any political considerations for the Non-Av forum, but I'll hold you to the "get what they deserve" aspect. We'll see in time how this thing turns out. If it isn't good, there'll be a price to pay.
Nostalgia isn't what it used to be.
 
krisyyz
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RE: Canada F-35 Order Facing Scrutiny

Fri Mar 30, 2012 2:28 pm

the Canadian Federal Budget is silent on what those new fighters will be...

"The budget document only says the government will buy “an affordable replacement” for the aging CF-18 fighter jets."
http://www.torontosun.com/2012/03/29/stealth-budget-cuts-in-defence

Just last week, the Harper government reaffirmed their commitment to the F-35, but then the junior Defence Minister stated that Canada is possibly look at alternatives to replace the CF-18 fleet. Yesterday the new budget came out and the F-35 was not mentioned once by name. Is this the beginning of the end for the Canadian procurement of the F-35?

What are the alternatives? Super Hornets until the F-35 cost and capabilities are more clear? I personally doubt Canada would seriously consider the Gripen or the Eurofighter.

KrisYYZ
 
Powerslide
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RE: Canada F-35 Order Facing Scrutiny

Fri Mar 30, 2012 9:25 pm

Quoting krisyyz (Reply 103):

I don't know how you got a CF-35 cancellation out of that little blurb of an article. All it says is an "affordable replacement" for the CF-18's, this means it could very well be the F-35. There is nothing substantial to say the CF-35 won't happen, unless someone says for sure that "Canada is looking for an F-35 alternative". Until then, news media puppets just make things up to sell their toilet paper.
 
krisyyz
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RE: Canada F-35 Order Facing Scrutiny

Fri Mar 30, 2012 11:26 pm

Quoting Powerslide (Reply 104):
Quoting krisyyz (Reply 103):


I don't know how you got a CF-35 cancellation out of that little blurb of an article. All it says is an "affordable replacement" for the CF-18's, this means it could very well be the F-35. There is nothing substantial to say the CF-35 won't happen, unless someone says for sure that "Canada is looking for an F-35 alternative". Until then, news media puppets just make things up to sell their toilet paper




Easy there... I was merely commenting on the fact that the 2012 Federal Budget didn't name the F-35 by name as replacement on the CF-18 fleet. The Harper govt has been dropping hints that they are becoming less committed to the F-35. We will probably see the F-35 in Canada, but I do think the best approach would to order Super hornets as a stop gap measure and wait until the F-35s unit price and performance capabilities are firmed.

However I would agree that the Toronto Sun is toilet paper  

KrisYYZ
 
Powerslide
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RE: Canada F-35 Order Facing Scrutiny

Sat Mar 31, 2012 1:47 am

Quoting krisyyz (Reply 105):

I didn't mean for my post to come across as aggressive, sorry if you took it that way. In my opinion it doesn't make sense to spend $Billions on a throw-away fighter just to turn around and spend the same on the F-35. We are either buying the F-35, and only the F-35, or not. We cannot afford to buy something else just to wait for it to possibly become cheaper. We don't have the manpower to train on two fighter types in today's economy and budgets in such a short period of time. Just the transition from the CF-18 to the F-35 will be a shit show manpower wise.
 
connies4ever
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RE: Canada F-35 Order Facing Scrutiny

Sat Mar 31, 2012 5:33 am

Quoting Powerslide (Reply 106):
I didn't mean for my post to come across as aggressive, sorry if you took it that way. In my opinion it doesn't make sense to spend $Billions on a throw-away fighter just to turn around and spend the same on the F-35. We are either buying the F-35, and only the F-35, or not. We cannot afford to buy something else just to wait for it to possibly become cheaper. We don't have the manpower to train on two fighter types in today's economy and budgets in such a short period of time. Just the transition from the CF-18 to the F-35 will be a shit show manpower wise.

No question a couple of good points:
a) can't afford to buy two types of a/c
b) transition will be a real PITA

That said, given the projected (and still theoretical) cost of full production F-35s, we won't even have enough cash to acquire 65. This is assuming Harper's (or Flaherty's) knife to the DoD budget continue - and in the budget it was stated that this would be so. So if we purchase say 50 is that even a viable force strength ?

See attached article: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/...-buying-a-warplane/article2388012/

It's important to assess what types of missions we are likely to be involved in. As indicated in the article, the mission the F-35A is really meant for is deep strike against a hard target. Canada is not going to be involved in anything like this over your or my lifetime. Which begs the question: why buy the F-35 when something else can do a reasonable job in the roles we're likely to be involved in: medium strike against a 2nd-level or 'soft' target (Libya, Bosnia, etc). So let's look realistically at what will do the most likely missions, not the least likely one.

So look at alternative platforms to perform the missions we're more likely to be involved in.

As for the Russians coming over the Pole: fantasy. Not going to happen. They're not even sending Bear nuisance missions down the Atlantic coast anymore. If we want to patrol the Arctic, we can acquire 3-4 Global Hawks. Or use a satellite in a highly elliptical orbit, which would make it 'hang' over the northern regions for a large part of the day.

Interoperability argument is a red herring. Look at the diverse types of platforms involved in Libya. No interoperability issues there. Discussed in current issue of AIR International, if you care to read it.
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Oroka
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RE: Canada F-35 Order Facing Scrutiny

Sat Mar 31, 2012 1:54 pm

Quoting connies4ever (Reply 107):
So if we purchase say 50 is that even a viable force strength ?

No. I cant find the link at the moment, but I read a quote from some high general that 65 was the minimum number the airforce could operate an effective force with.
 
krisyyz
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RE: Canada F-35 Order Facing Scrutiny

Sat Mar 31, 2012 2:04 pm

Quoting Powerslide (Reply 106):
I didn't mean for my post to come across as aggressive, sorry if you took it that way. In my opinion it doesn't make sense to spend $Billions on a throw-away fighter just to turn around and spend the same on the F-35. We are either buying the F-35, and only the F-35, or not. We cannot afford to buy something else just to wait for it to possibly become cheaper. We don't have the manpower to train on two fighter types in today's economy and budgets in such a short period of time. Just the transition from the CF-18 to the F-35 will be a shit show manpower wise.
Quoting connies4ever (Reply 107):
No question a couple of good points:
a) can't afford to buy two types of a/c
b) transition will be a real PITA

Good point. I would also add the global move towards unmanned vehicles, no doubt that is well into the future.
The training, maintenance and cost of spare parts for the Super Hornet would be significant, AFAIK the Super Hornet is a vastly different beast than the F-18.

Canada needs a fighter for it's NORAD mission first and foremost. We need a long-range, multi-engine fighter that would be able to operate in both hot and high environments and the deep frozen north.

As you have pointed out, the increasing cost of the F-35 could result in Canada buying fewer jets. We all know how troubled some of Canada's military equipment procurement have been (same with the US). My main concern is that the CF-18 fleet will be barely operational by the time we have enough F-35s to live up to our NORD and NATO commitments.

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connies4ever
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RE: Canada F-35 Order Facing Scrutiny

Sat Mar 31, 2012 2:16 pm

Quoting Oroka (Reply 108):
No. I cant find the link at the moment, but I read a quote from some high general that 65 was the minimum number the airforce could operate an effective force with.

Yes, that was my thought as well. So if we have less cash to spend, what can we acquire that achieves the 65 a/c threshold ? F-18E/F ? F-15 as configured for Saudi Arabia or Singapore ? Typhoon or Rafale outside chance.

Going back to Arctic patrols, 2-3 satellites in elliptic orbits would give you 24/7 coverage. If a manned platform is insisted on, we could approach the RAF about their Sentinel R.1s which will be out of service in 2014, without too many hours on them. But I think Global Hawk is the better choice, and avoids sending whatever aircraft is selected on a mission it was likely not designed for, and avoids having to provide infrastructure in the Arctic.

On the patrol topic, CF need to be thinking about an Aurora replacement. We will have 10 available until around 2025, even after all the wing work. P-8 Poseidon will be pretty expensive, what are the alternatives and how much will all this cost ?

With a reduced military capital budget, there will be a lot of infighting over which branch gets what slice. The submarines, joke that they are, will continue to gobble up a fair slice.
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Powerslide
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RE: Canada F-35 Order Facing Scrutiny

Sat Mar 31, 2012 4:35 pm

Quoting connies4ever (Reply 107):
See attached article: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/...8012/

What the hell is "easy" bombing? This guy doesn't get it.

The only failure in this entire program is the PR campaign and the governments inability to sell this thing to the public.
 
connies4ever
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RE: Canada F-35 Order Facing Scrutiny

Sat Mar 31, 2012 5:13 pm

Quoting Powerslide (Reply 111):
What the hell is "easy" bombing? This guy doesn't get it.

That would be bombing an essentially undefended target. Like Libya.

Quoting Powerslide (Reply 111):

The only failure in this entire program is the PR campaign and the governments inability to sell this thing to the public.

The real failure is the inability of both the government and military to justify to the public why Canada needs a "tip of the spear" weapon system when we all know the CF are not that type of force. With all due respect to the men and women enlisted, they are a support force.
Nostalgia isn't what it used to be.
 
Powerslide
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RE: Canada F-35 Order Facing Scrutiny

Sat Mar 31, 2012 7:31 pm

Quoting connies4ever (Reply 112):
With all due respect to the men and women enlisted, they are a support force.

With all due respect, you need education on some facts. Take Libya for example, we contributed a disproportionate amount compared to the small size of our Air Force. We were right behind the Brits and France in sorties with only 6 fighters, 3 A/A refuelers and 2 reconnaissance aircraft. As usual, we "punched above our weight". Only the US is capable, maybe Britain, of invading another country. We don't need a lot of "stuff" to be effective.

Quoting connies4ever (Reply 112):
why Canada needs a "tip of the spear" weapon system when we all know the CF are not that type of force.

There are a handful of countries buying the F-35 with the reason NOT being aggression.
 
connies4ever
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RE: Canada F-35 Order Facing Scrutiny

Sat Mar 31, 2012 10:24 pm

Quoting Powerslide (Reply 113):
With all due respect, you need education on some facts. Take Libya for example, we contributed a disproportionate amount compared to the small size of our Air Force. We were right behind the Brits and France in sorties with only 6 fighters, 3 A/A refuelers and 2 reconnaissance aircraft. As usual, we "punched above our weight". Only the US is capable, maybe Britain, of invading another country. We don't need a lot of "stuff" to be effective.

I am very aware of the disproportionate contribution Canada made attacking a soft target.

Quoting Powerslide (Reply 113):

There are a handful of countries buying the F-35 with the reason NOT being aggression.

Yes, Japan being an example, which is engaged in a long-term strategic dance with China. The probability of hostilities there is non-zero. In fact there already have been naval confrontations, particularly over the Paracel Islands.
Also Netherlands and likely Norway.

Italy ? No real need for them, other than to justify their smallish aircraft carrier. Can't afford them anyway given the recently imposed austerity program.
Turkey ? They will attack Kurdistan given any incentive, and keep a close watch on Syria, Iraq, and Iran. So from their p.o.v. a deep strike system is a good option. But even they are having second thoughts due to a) cost, and b) refusal of the US to release source code.
Oz ? They admit they can't defend their country from attack (assuming Indonesia) so not really sure about the justification, the F-35 couldn't possibly reach Indonesia other than West Irian w/o huge tanker support. And are rethinking purchase.
UK ? They will use them in blind support of the US.
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Powerslide
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RE: Canada F-35 Order Facing Scrutiny

Sun Apr 01, 2012 4:29 pm

Quoting connies4ever (Reply 114):
attacking a soft target.

This is based on your experience in the operation or sitting at home getting news from the tube?
 
connies4ever
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RE: Canada F-35 Order Facing Scrutiny

Sun Apr 01, 2012 4:48 pm

Quoting Powerslide (Reply 115):
Quoting connies4ever (Reply 114):
attacking a soft target.

This is based on your experience in the operation or sitting at home getting news from the tube?

This is based on my knowledge that the Gadhaffi regime (or what was left of it due to defections in the military) had no effective command and control structure. Without a brain, the weapon systems aren't of much value.

I live about 10 clicks from CFB Petawawa and have a number of friends and/or contacts in the forces. They were frequently updating me on "the situation".

I'm sure you have an opinion on nuclear power and the incident at Fukushima in Japan. Is this based on actual hands-on experience with nuclear power or do you get your intel by sitting in front of the tube ?

Your condescension is impressive.   

[Edited 2012-04-01 10:00:05]

[Edited 2012-04-01 10:01:03]
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Powerslide
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RE: Canada F-35 Order Facing Scrutiny

Sun Apr 01, 2012 7:38 pm

Quoting connies4ever (Reply 116):
I live about 10 clicks from CFB Petawawa and have a number of friends and/or contacts in the forces. They were frequently updating me on "the situation".

Ah, so you live 10km from an Army base that pretty much had nothing to do with OP MOBILE. Your friends or contacts got their info from the same sources you did. The media.

Quoting connies4ever (Reply 116):
I'm sure you have an opinion on nuclear power and the incident at Fukushima in Japan. Is this based on actual hands-on experience with nuclear power or do you get your intel by sitting in front of the tube ?

I don't have an opinion on nuclear power because I don't know enough about the topic. To say that nuclear power is dangerous without knowledge on the subject would be ignorant, much like Canadians commenting on the JSF program who think they know more than paid professionals in the field.
 
connies4ever
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RE: Canada F-35 Order Facing Scrutiny

Sun Apr 01, 2012 8:33 pm

Quoting Powerslide (Reply 117):
Ah, so you live 10km from an Army base that pretty much had nothing to do with OP MOBILE. Your friends or contacts got their info from the same sources you did. The media.

But they are in contact with those in OP MOBILE. You make a lot of assumptions, about the above AND the worthiness of the F-35.

Quoting Powerslide (Reply 117):
I don't have an opinion on nuclear power because I don't know enough about the topic. To say that nuclear power is dangerous without knowledge on the subject would be ignorant, much like Canadians commenting on the JSF program who think they know more than paid professionals in the field.

So then can I take it that a) you are not in the 21-25 age range ? (very few "qualified professionals" in that age bracket, in my 35+ years of experience. I wouldn't have called myself a "qualified professional" until I was in my mid-30s) and b) "in the field" - does this imply you actually ARE in the Forces ? If you are, why not man up and put it in your profile ?Further, by assuming that those at Petawawa get their info from the media implies that you have some special access that is not public, ergo the military.

I have never said I think I know more. But I do have an opinion. As do you. As does Bill Sweetman, for that matter. What neither of has a right to is our own facts. And I will bet dimes to dollars that neither of us know all the facts.
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connies4ever
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RE: Canada F-35 Order Facing Scrutiny

Tue Apr 03, 2012 10:40 am

Back to the actual issue of the F-35 purchase (or not).

Due to DND's dishonest activities regarding disclosure of information to Parliament re the true cost of the F-35, Harper et al are restructuring the whole procurement process:

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/...ditor-generals-report-sources-say/

Generally the military will be very unhappy about civilians being in direct control of military procurement, but it appears this sort of behavior has also occurred re the Chinooks and the Cyclones: low ball the cost to Parliament to get the program through, then come back and ask for more money. Well, based on the latest budget, there will be less money going forward.

If DND can't be forthcoming about the actual program costs, then responsibility for the program should be stripped from DND. It's called accountability. What appears to these eyes to be the case is that DND officials seem to think the money is theirs, when in fact it's ours.
Nostalgia isn't what it used to be.
 
connies4ever
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RE: Canada F-35 Order Facing Scrutiny

Tue Apr 03, 2012 4:08 pm

It just gets worse for the overall F-35 program and those associated with it. Some highlights directly from the Auditor-General himself:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/stor...02/f35-auditor-general-report.html

I cannot but predict that this entire fiasco will end several careers (and rightly so). Several people will likely be given menial desk jobs that will, shall we say, "encourage" them to file for early retirement, with consequent penalties. Good. Trying to do an end run on the House Defense Committee and Parliament itself is unethical to say the least.

Given the statement from the Minister of Public Works that the procurement budget is frozen and that the actual cost of this thing is around $148M, not the $75M that DND presented to Parliament, this implies that DND, if it goes ahead at all, will only be ably to acquire 30-35 frames, not 65. Hardly a viable force, ergo: what's the point ?
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Oroka
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RE: Canada F-35 Order Facing Scrutiny

Tue Apr 03, 2012 4:50 pm

Im just waiting the day when a RCAF jet encounters a PLAAF J-20. If we dont get F-35s, it WILL be F/A-18E/Fs, if you are going to nickel and dime your fighter purchase might as well get something you are familiar with.

Pretty much, with the Rhino it will be the Canadian flying along, then all of a sudden the J-20 fires up its radar, showing the Rhino there is a jet in a perfect kill position and if there was conflict the Rhino would be dead. There will also be a PLAAF pilot laughing his ass off as an oblivious Canadian breaks hard in a panic when said radar is turned on.

Maybe we should invite Russia's T-50s over for the next Maple Flag... see how well that goes over. Today, a Super Hornet will suffice, but this fighter will have to last 30-40 years... a Hornet will not do so well in 15 years time.


Giving the fighter procurement to a civilian committee will simply get you the same results, with someone else hung out to dry in the end. How can you pin down a price when there is no final price yet, and people are constantly rolling 50 years of operation costs into the purchase price? I dont remember being quoted 20 years worth of parts, gas, and maintenance when I bought my car...

We should still be flying our old Chinooks, and the Cyclones should have been Merlins some time in the mid 90s. That is what you get when you let civilians run military purchases. Give the CAF money, let them buy what they want with it.
 
connies4ever
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RE: Canada F-35 Order Facing Scrutiny

Tue Apr 03, 2012 5:07 pm

Quoting Oroka (Reply 121):
Im just waiting the day when a RCAF jet encounters a PLAAF J-20.

A scenario that will never occur. Any future op scenario for a CF-18E/F will be to shoot up and/or bomb some Tuareg encampment in Mauretania, a return to Libya to deal with future 'issues', Bosnia (again) or, most likely, nothing.

China's strategic vision is to dominate the East China/Yellow Sea regions, to be the primus inter pares, and to have influence over both South Korea and Japan, and slowly ease the US out of it's protective role for Taiwan.
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tommytoyz
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RE: Canada F-35 Order Facing Scrutiny

Tue Apr 03, 2012 7:09 pm

The report also shows that DND estimated the total cost of the F-35 program at $25 billion over 20 years when the decision was made internally to go forward with it in 2010. But in 2011, when DND responded to a report by Parliamentary Budget Officer Kevin Page, officials said the cost would only be $14.7 billion.

In other words, they lied.
 
Powerslide
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RE: Canada F-35 Order Facing Scrutiny

Tue Apr 03, 2012 8:35 pm

Quoting tommytoyz (Reply 123):
In other words, they lied.

Or the report did, which has the program over 36 years @ $25b vs. the DND's estimate of $15b over 20 years. So in actuality, the AG report is CHEAPER than the DND estimate.

Quoting connies4ever (Reply 119):
What appears to these eyes to be the case is that DND officials seem to think the money is theirs, when in fact it's ours.

Even if you have a competition it is still the DND who writes the competitive parameters, not the politians, so the military still wins. In the end nothing has changed, the DND might get a light slap on the wrist and the CF-35 is still the aircraft of choice. Carry on.....
 
connies4ever
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RE: Canada F-35 Order Facing Scrutiny

Tue Apr 03, 2012 8:47 pm

Quoting Powerslide (Reply 124):
Even if you have a competition it is still the DND who writes the competitive parameters, not the politians, so the military still wins.

If the competitive parameters are written in such a way that ONLY the F-35 qualifies, then it's a sham process. Unethical in any sense, in case you've heard of ethics. See the FWSAR effort. The military should never win, they should do as they're told, otherwise you have a dictatorship.

Quoting Powerslide (Reply 124):
In the end nothing has changed, the DND might get a light slap on the wrist and the CF-35 is still the aircraft of choice.

We'll see. But if there is no money, how many can they actually buy ?

By the time the government indicates they will go for a contract, it might not be a Conservative government. I pray, anyway. Even Mulcair would be an improvement over the hypocrisy and thuggishness of Harpo et al. Maybe we can get young Justin to punch out McKay (for effect, of course).
Nostalgia isn't what it used to be.
 
bennett123
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RE: Canada F-35 Order Facing Scrutiny

Tue Apr 03, 2012 9:09 pm

Oroka

I take you mean give them CAN$xBN.

If they can get 65 fighters then good, if not, then they get less.

IMO, the notion put around that the military decide what they want, then simply give US the bill may have worked in the past, but not any more.
 
Powerslide
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RE: Canada F-35 Order Facing Scrutiny

Tue Apr 03, 2012 9:13 pm

Quoting connies4ever (Reply 125):
If the competitive parameters are written in such a way that ONLY the F-35 qualifies, then it's a sham process.

So if the DND, or whomever, writes the requirements and only the F35 qualifies it's a sham? I think its a sham that only the F35 meets the requirements of the future fighter jet for many countries. I don't see the Super Hornet meeting any requirements recently....

Quoting connies4ever (Reply 125):
We'll see. But if there is no money, how many can they actually buy ?

The $9B or so is already allocated into the budget for the fighter purchase and operation. Norway is getting theirs for $75million per, so there is no reason why we can't get the same price. I just hope they cut CBC funding altogether and this entire project will have more than enough money.
 
connies4ever
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RE: Canada F-35 Order Facing Scrutiny

Tue Apr 03, 2012 10:52 pm

Quoting Powerslide (Reply 127):
Quoting connies4ever (Reply 125):
If the competitive parameters are written in such a way that ONLY the F-35 qualifies, then it's a sham process.

So if the DND, or whomever, writes the requirements and only the F35 qualifies it's a sham? I think its a sham that only the F35 meets the requirements of the future fighter jet for many countries. I don't see the Super Hornet meeting any requirements recently....

Quoting connies4ever (Reply 125):
We'll see. But if there is no money, how many can they actually buy ?

The $9B or so is already allocated into the budget for the fighter purchase and operation. Norway is getting theirs for $75million per, so there is no reason why we can't get the same price. I just hope they cut CBC funding altogether and this entire project will have more than enough money.

The $9B or so is already allocated into the budget for the fighter purchase and operation. Norway is getting theirs for $75million per, so there is no reason why we can't get the same price. I just hope they cut CBC funding altogether and this entire project will have more than enough money. Nobody believes this price, not even Lockmart, actually. If you do, I'd ask what you're smoking. Come on, more like $148M per.

Basically it comes down to what you define your posture to be. That is a derivative of your foreign policy, it does not stand by itself. Foreign policy, in case you had not noticed, is driven by civilians, not the military (that must hurt, eh?). Once foreign policy is defined, only then can a specific military posture be set. Since foreign policy is subject to a number of jigs and jags in politics, it is never going to be an exact science. Therefore, military posture needs to be as flexible as it can be, given the financial means available.

Given that, and I what I would think to be a reasonable threat assessment looking forward, despite anyone's wet dream, the CF are not going to be staring down the PLAAF in our lifetime. As I have said, a great 2nd tier force, useful for cleanup or for leading against a softer target. Any large engagement will be between the USAF and whomever.

You also need to look at China's issues: rampant inflation that may choke off growth, huge civil unhappiness, and huge resource deprivation, which is why they are trying to buy up as much of Africa as possible.

At the end of the day, DND can write the specs and make a recommendation. Fine. And Parliament will come back to them and say "this is what you can have" in terms of dollars. Make it fit. I've had to do this more than once, and it is painful to scale down your ambitions, but when you live off the public teat, that's always what you have to do.

Suck it and see.
Nostalgia isn't what it used to be.
 
Powerslide
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RE: Canada F-35 Order Facing Scrutiny

Tue Apr 03, 2012 11:07 pm

Quoting connies4ever (Reply 128):
Suck it and see.

Awww, getting upset are we. Fact of the matter is, unless something drastic happens, like the US cancelling the program for good, the F35 will happen in Canada regardless of what the media or any non-conservative voter says or believes. That is the nice thing about a majority, the opposition can whine and complain, but can't do much besides that.
 
ThePointblank
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RE: Canada F-35 Order Facing Scrutiny

Wed Apr 04, 2012 12:28 am

Quoting tommytoyz (Reply 123):
The report also shows that DND estimated the total cost of the F-35 program at $25 billion over 20 years when the decision was made internally to go forward with it in 2010. But in 2011, when DND responded to a report by Parliamentary Budget Officer Kevin Page, officials said the cost would only be $14.7 billion.

In other words, they lied.

If you actually read the AG's report (and not just news pieces), it presents a more clear picture of what the AG actually said verses soundbites:
http://www.oag-bvg.gc.ca/internet/En...sh/parl_oag_201204_02_e_36466.html

Basically they suggest that DND manipulated process and did not undertake a proper competition around 2009~2010. Its not the worst thing to say, DND does this frequently but with different tactics (like the C-130J, C-17, CH-47F, etc, etc, etc).

Of course this is being portrayed as negligence, when the AG report suggests that this was a function of the involvement in the development program.


Also the report states that, "while ministers were told that the 2006 MOU did not prevent Canada from having a competition in the future, they were not told of the practical limitations of doing so. For example, as a partner in the development of the F-35, National Defence’s long-standing relationship with and access to proprietary data from one of the prime contractors, coupled with the unique benefits offered only to partners, meant that other potential aircraft manufacturers would be disadvantaged from competing fairly."

[Edited 2012-04-03 17:38:12]
 
tommytoyz
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RE: Canada F-35 Order Facing Scrutiny

Wed Apr 04, 2012 1:07 am

Quoting ThePointblank (Reply 130):
If you actually read the AG's report (and not just news pieces), it presents a more clear picture of what the AG actually said verses soundbites:



http://www.oag-bvg.gc.ca/internet/En...rl_oag_201204_02_e_36466.html#hd5k

Did you read it? Look at the dates and figures above taken from the report. It is clear who lied to whom and when. Unless, you are saying the Auditor is lying. Is that what you are saying?
 
ThePointblank
Posts: 3566
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RE: Canada F-35 Order Facing Scrutiny

Wed Apr 04, 2012 1:32 am

Quoting tommytoyz (Reply 131):



http://www.oag-bvg.gc.ca/internet/En...rl_oag_201204_02_e_36466.html#hd5k

Did you read it? Look at the dates and figures above taken from the report. It is clear who lied to whom and when. Unless, you are saying the Auditor is lying. Is that what you are saying?

You deliberately are making misleading statements.

Look at the figures involved more closely. The DND has also calculated costs that are associated with the F-35, including DND personnel costs. Different set of costs with different set of assumptions made. You, much like everyone else so far, has not managed to grasp the concept that how one calculates costs and what type of assumptions and factors made, will drastically affect one's 'cost'. In order to truly understand costing, you need to have a total picture and understanding of how one reached that cost.

Looking at the cost breakdown, the figures for each line (except for where there is no figure) are SIMILAR. For example, the DND estimated in 2010 internally that the total capital costs for buying F-35's is $6 billion dollars. They reached and presented the same number in 2011.

The biggest difference is that the DND cost in 2010 includes things like Operating costs, Contingency, and National Defence personnel, while the 2011 Public cost didn't.

Both sets of costs are TRUE and CORRECT, but how one reached those costs are NOT THE SAME METHOD. In short, you are comparing apples to oranges. While they are both 'fruit', they are still totally different from each other in composition, etc.

Just this morning, I yelled at my costing analysts for making the same mistake you are making when they were buying raw materials. So I know what's going on in how one arrives at costs.

[Edited 2012-04-03 18:34:09]
 
tommytoyz
Posts: 1195
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RE: Canada F-35 Order Facing Scrutiny

Wed Apr 04, 2012 1:42 am

Quoting ThePointblank (Reply 132):
Looking at the cost breakdown, the figures for each line (except for where there is no figure) are SIMILAR.

That is true. The lie is in the excluded figures.

2.68 Exhibit 2.6 illustrates two cost estimates developed by National Defence: the first was used for decision making in June 2010; the second was presented to Parliament in response to the March 2011 report of the Parliamentary Budget Officer




Of course both estimates are correct for what they reflect. I am not saying otherwise, nor did I. Let me put it another way. The estimate presented to Parliament was misrepresented as being something it wasn't. It was not the total F-35 costs over 20 years, yet Parliament was led to believe that is was.

[Edited 2012-04-03 18:49:36]
 
ThePointblank
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RE: Canada F-35 Order Facing Scrutiny

Wed Apr 04, 2012 2:00 am

Quoting tommytoyz (Reply 133):
That is true. The lie is in the excluded figures.

2.68 Exhibit 2.6 illustrates two cost estimates developed by National Defence: the first was used for decision making in June 2010; the second was presented to Parliament in response to the March 2011 report of the Parliamentary Budget Officer

However, both set of costs ARE correct. What's misleading (and you are guilty of this), and that you looked at the final total without understanding the entire picture. Even then, comparing to the PBO's costing estimates, you are comparing apples to oranges to banana's, and the devil lies in the details as to how one arrived at such costs.

In order to truly cost things out in a equivalent manner, one will have to develop a standardized costing formula where the exact same assumptions are made between the two costs. No one has done that yet, and that's why I don't take stock in the various 'costs' that are floating around until I've had a chance to closely examine the figures to see the methodology and assumptions made.
 
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RE: Canada F-35 Order Facing Scrutiny

Wed Apr 04, 2012 5:47 am

Quoting Powerslide (Reply 127):
Norway is getting theirs for $75million per, so there is no reason why we can't get the same price.

Latest about Norway,s F-35 purchase......
The plan is to buy the 4 training aircraft in 2015, instead of 2016. That’s later than the originally-envisaged full buy of 48 from 2014-2018, but the F-35’s schedule has changed, too.

The rest of the buy would be stretched. Norway is considering 2017 as the start date for orders of the remaining 42, and the final procurement year could be as late as 2023-2024. That makes for an average buy of 5-6 planes per year, though Norway could also choose to buy fewer in early years and more in the later years, if that means lower prices. The final 6 operational aircraft would be a separate decision, after the main set of 4 training + 42 fighters had been ordered. That effectively turns them into a financial buffer, making them vulnerable to budget cuts or fighter cost increases.
http://www.defenseindustrydaily.com/...ntinued-dogfights-in-norway-03034/

Now,is there any details such this regarding Canadas purchase??

[Edited 2012-04-03 22:50:35]
It's not what u do,it's how u do it!
 
Centre
Posts: 321
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RE: Canada F-35 Order Facing Scrutiny

Wed Apr 04, 2012 5:49 am

This subject came up in the last election and the conservatives lied/hidden information from the public about the cost of the F-35.
If those figures were presented to the public their chances of wining would have been very slim.
Harper and his government should be thrown out of Ottawa.
disgusting indeed.
I have cut 4 times, and it's still short.
 
tommytoyz
Posts: 1195
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RE: Canada F-35 Order Facing Scrutiny

Wed Apr 04, 2012 6:32 am

Definition - "Full Life-cycle Cost"
Sum of all recurring and one-time (non-recurring) costs over the full life span or a specified period of a good, service, structure, or system. In includes purchase price, installation cost, operating costs, maintenance and upgrade costs, and remaining (residual or salvage) value at the end of ownership or its useful life.

Read more: http://www.businessdictionary.com/de...life-cycle-cost.html#ixzz1r39aSVCM

Now from the report:

Full life-cycle costs were understated in the estimates provided to support the government’s 2010 decision to buy the F-35.

The definition of "Full Life-cycle Cost" includes the cost line items that the DND excluded. When they said their full life-cycle cost estimate was $14.7 Billion, that was a lie. Their own estimate for that was really $25 billion at that time.

It's very simple.Now you are saying, ah mamamia, it's all a misunderstanding? That's what criminals say when they're caught red handed.

[Edited 2012-04-03 23:35:52]
 
connies4ever
Posts: 3393
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RE: Canada F-35 Order Facing Scrutiny

Wed Apr 04, 2012 1:14 pm

Quoting Powerslide (Reply 129):
Awww, getting upset are we. Fact of the matter is, unless something drastic happens, like the US cancelling the program for good, the F35 will happen in Canada regardless of what the media or any non-conservative voter says or believes. That is the nice thing about a majority, the opposition can whine and complain, but can't do much besides that.

Actually, this doesn't even have to have any sense of logic (your way or mine) anymore, it has entered the realm of politics vs public opinion. Not sure which one the Tories value more.

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/...lex-to-never-retreat-or-apologize/

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/...es-by-fighter-jets/article2391501/

Quoting Centre (Reply 136):
This subject came up in the last election and the conservatives lied/hidden information from the public about the cost of the F-35.
If those figures were presented to the public their chances of wining would have been very slim.
Harper and his government should be thrown out of Ottawa.
disgusting indeed.

   Welcome to Canada, sir !

Remember: the only good Tory is a suppository.
Nostalgia isn't what it used to be.
 
Powerslide
Posts: 581
Joined: Sun Oct 03, 2010 2:24 am

RE: Canada F-35 Order Facing Scrutiny

Wed Apr 04, 2012 4:11 pm

Quoting Centre (Reply 136):
If those figures were presented to the public their chances of wining would have been very slim.

Incorrect. Fact is the public in Canada doesn't care about this issue, its only the media who like to blow things out of proportion. Those who seem to dislike all things Conservative seem to be the loudest and most vocal. It's like a crying child who didn't get what he/she wanted. They will make all sorts of noise and clatter but no one really cares what they have to say until they show some maturity. This is the pathetic situation of the opposition parties in Canada.

Quoting connies4ever (Reply 138):
Actually, this doesn't even have to have any sense of logic (your way or mine) anymore, it has entered the realm of politics vs public opinion.

Perhaps. However IMO the general public has no right to say what we buy. They can complain about the price all they want since it's their money, what the DND does with this money is a whole different matter. The public doesn't care about what vehicles or guns the Army buys or what ships the Navy gets. Why is it that when it comes to fighter jets every joe blow thinks he knows what's best for the Air Force. The DND doesn't make decisions based on Ace Combat video game results, the public on the other hand seems to.
 
connies4ever
Posts: 3393
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RE: Canada F-35 Order Facing Scrutiny

Wed Apr 04, 2012 5:23 pm

Quoting Powerslide (Reply 139):
Perhaps. However IMO the general public has no right to say what we buy.

Actually, since we pay your salary and pay for everything you use, we do. There's an old saying "who pays the piper calls the tune". Get used to it.

Quoting Powerslide (Reply 139):
Incorrect. Fact is the public in Canada doesn't care about this issue

Much more so than you realize in your bubble.

Quoting Powerslide (Reply 139):
Those who seem to dislike all things Conservative seem to be the loudest and most vocal

Who represent the majority of Canadians. Don't forget Harp et al got elected with about 38% of the vote.
Nostalgia isn't what it used to be.
 
Centre
Posts: 321
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2010 11:37 pm

RE: Canada F-35 Order Facing Scrutiny

Wed Apr 04, 2012 8:34 pm

Quoting Powerslide (Reply 139):
Incorrect. Fact is the public in Canada doesn't care about this issue, its only the media who like to blow things out of proportion. Those who seem to dislike all things Conservative seem to be the loudest and most vocal. It's like a crying child who didn't get what he/she wanted

And because of such attitude the conservatives feel they have a blank cheque to do whatever they want?
As a liberal, I see conservatism nothing but a disease that need to be dealt with 
Makes you wonder where does Jesus fall in the midst of all of these lies.

Quoting Powerslide (Reply 139):
Perhaps. However IMO the general public has no right to say what we buy. They can complain about the price all they want since it's their money, what the DND does with this money is a whole different matter. The public doesn't care about what vehicles or guns the Army buys or what ships the Navy gets. Why is it that when it comes to fighter jets every joe blow thinks he knows what's best for the Air Force. The DND doesn't make decisions based on Ace Combat video game results, the public on the other hand seems to.

I give you this one, it was the fault of the public to put such incompetent government in the office... And whoever voted for them deserve such a treatment from those like you with the attitude that the government owns the people, and not the other way around.
It's just the pockets of everyone else that has to foot the bill.

The only reason Harper's government still surviving is because there is no unified opposition. They too need to get their act together and throw the Tories out of office once and for all.
I have cut 4 times, and it's still short.
 
Powerslide
Posts: 581
Joined: Sun Oct 03, 2010 2:24 am

RE: Canada F-35 Order Facing Scrutiny

Wed Apr 04, 2012 8:57 pm

Quoting connies4ever (Reply 140):
Actually, since we pay your salary and pay for everything you use, we do. There's an old saying "who pays the piper calls the tune". Get used to it.

Nice try, but you don't get to decide what uniforms we wear or what type of equipment we need for specific missions. You are just there to provide the cash after we make our list of requirements. Get used to it. Whether or not we get that cash is another story, like with the F35 buy.

Quoting connies4ever (Reply 140):
Much more so than you realize in your bubble.

Truth hurts doesn't it. You are quick to make personal attacks in your posts when proven wrong. It's a trend I see.



Quoting connies4ever (Reply 140):
Who represent the majority of Canadians. Don't forget Harp et al got elected with about 38% of the vote.

Unfortunately or political system isn't based on the majority vote. While maybe more people, individually, might have voted against the Conservatives, they still won based on our voting system. Get used to it. Unless the Liberals get their collective heads our of their asses, I can see a Conservative majority happening next election. The NDP are just....off in their own little world and have no clue how to run a country.

Quoting Centre (Reply 141):
As a liberal, I see conservatism nothing but a disease that need to be dealt with

Much like I see the United States in the world picture, but that is for another topic. Stay on this one. If you don't want to discuss the F35 purchase in Canada, run along.
 
connies4ever
Posts: 3393
Joined: Sat Feb 25, 2006 10:54 pm

RE: Canada F-35 Order Facing Scrutiny

Wed Apr 04, 2012 9:23 pm

Quoting Powerslide (Reply 142):
Nice try, but you don't get to decide what uniforms we wear or what type of equipment we need for specific missions. You are just there to provide the cash after we make our list of requirements. Get used to it. Whether or not we get that cash is another story, like with the F35 buy.

Well, when you see the budget going forward, get used to it. Actually, I come from an Air Force family, father 3 uncles. My brother is Army. I am well connected to the DND world.

Actually, we do get to decide what uniforms you wear. Because we have the purse strings. Don't forget it. Whether green jeans in older days or the separate uni's today is a different argument.

Quoting Powerslide (Reply 142):
Truth hurts doesn't it. You are quick to make personal attacks in your posts when proven wrong. It's a trend I see.

Oh, so sorry. Didn't know you were so sensitive. I'll try to pull some punches. But no promises.
Nostalgia isn't what it used to be.
 
Powerslide
Posts: 581
Joined: Sun Oct 03, 2010 2:24 am

RE: Canada F-35 Order Facing Scrutiny

Wed Apr 04, 2012 10:27 pm

Quoting connies4ever (Reply 143):
Actually, we do get to decide what uniforms you wear. Because we have the purse strings.

I don't ever recall the DND asking the public whether or not we should choose the J model herc or wait for the A400M. Same thing for the C17, there was never a public opinion poll held. Civies may have approved the cash, but not the equipment. You can't seem to grasp the difference.

Back on topic. Measuring the total cost of the program is stupid at this stage. When you buy a car, do you also calculate the total cost of gas, maintenance, accident repairs, registration costs, insurance, etc? Your $30,000 mrsp car now costs you $50,000. Imagine that. If we added in maintenance and upgrade cost to every thing we have (house, car, boat, bike, etc) then yes the total cost over its expected life will always seem staggering. Nice propaganda trick that the uneducated public eats up like a fat guy in a buffet.

Here is a nice article from Dec that applies to this situation.

http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2011/12/f-22-real-cost/

Quote:
The 196th and final F-22 Raptor has rolled out of Lockheed Martin’s factory in Marietta, Georgia. That means yesterday marked an end to more than 14 years of production for what’s widely considered the most fearsome jet fighter in history. And also one of the costliest.

So what’s the cost? As little as $137 million per jet and as much as $678 million, depending on how and what you count. The thing is, the best way of calculating the F-22′s cost may be the most abstract. But any way you crunch the numbers, the world’s best dogfighter has also been one of the most expensive operational warplanes ever.

Over the years, the Raptor’s cost has been the subject of intense debate in the Pentagon, the White House, Congress and the media. But advocates and critics tend to quote different figures to serve their various agendas. Fans of the twin-engine fighter usually refer to the “flyaway cost” — that is, how much Lockheed charged the government to piece together each Raptor after all development has been paid for. In other words, just construction spending.

By that reckoning, each of the last 60 F-22s set the taxpayer back $137 million, only slightly more than the roughly $110 million apiece Americans pay for a new F-35 Joint Strike Fighter — a plane specifically designed to be “affordable,” whatever that means. (All figures are in roughly constant dollars.)


Haters cite “unit cost,” which includes development and production spending divided by the number of jets built. F-22 production and development, including currently approved upgrades, totals $74 billion, resulting in a unit cost of $377 million.

And just because the last Raptor left the Marietta factory doesn’t mean the unit cost is fixed at $377 million. If the Air Force ever gets around to adding a long-planned-for datalink, the unit cost could increase slightly. Tweaks to prevent future groundings — like those that occurred this year — would also push the unit cost up.

By contrast, the F-35′s unit cost should stabilize at around $157 million, owing to a massive 2,443-plane production run. That’s assuming the Joint Strike Fighter doesn’t get canceled or curtailed following revelations of new design flaws.

There’s a third way to calculate the F-22′s burden on the taxpayer. “Lifecycle cost” adds up the price of fuel, spare parts and maintenance during the jet’s projected 40-year lifespan. The Government Accountability Office estimates it will cost $59 billion to fix and fly the F-22s until they retire. If you add unit cost and per-plane lifecycle cost, you get the total amount the United States spends to design, produce and operate a single Raptor: a whopping $678 million.

F-35 lifecycle plus unit cost, assuming nothing else goes wrong? $469 million, according to Air Force figures quoted by the GAO.

The fourth and final approach to calculating the Raptor’s price takes into account its effectiveness. It’s a trickier measurement. But it might be the best one to consider. It asks: How much value does the U.S. government get from its investment in F-22s?

While it’s undetectable in isolated flyaway, unit and lifecycle cost figures, value is inarguably important. A cheap used car that never leaves the driveway is, in a real sense, more expensive than a car you pay sticker price for and drive every day.

So consider this: since the F-22 entered service in 2005, every other operational warplane in the U.S. arsenal has seen action in Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya or other conflict zones. But the tiny fleet of pricey F-22s, optimized for ultra-rare dogfighting missions, missing key upgrades and frequently grounded, hasn’t flown a single combat sortie.

That should be the real source of buyer’s remorse.


In the end, calculating total cost of the entire program is ridiculous without knowing everything. I'd like you to find out how much the entire F-15 program cost, from first drawings to today. Make sure to include everything from fuel costs, to salaries for the support crew and coffee in the unit break room. Until we have a standardized method for calculating fighter programs, these and all the subsequent cost projections are asinine.
 
TheCol
Posts: 1857
Joined: Wed Jan 03, 2007 9:30 am

RE: Canada F-35 Order Facing Scrutiny

Thu Apr 05, 2012 5:07 am

Quoting Centre (Reply 136):
This subject came up in the last election and the conservatives lied/hidden information from the public about the cost of the F-35.

According to the AG report, DND mislead the government.

Quoting Centre (Reply 136):
Harper and his government should be thrown out of Ottawa.

We'll decide the fate of the Harper government, thank you. Last time I checked, you have your own election to be concerned about.

Quoting connies4ever (Reply 138):
Remember: the only good Tory is a suppository.

The cards are down, eh?  
Quoting connies4ever (Reply 128):
Basically it comes down to what you define your posture to be.

  

The F35 was never going to happen to begin with. Why? Because the chances of the current government sticking around until 2021 are very slim. Then the Maritime Helicopter Project would repeat itself all over again. The only difference here is that the F-35 plan is dead now, instead of a few years down the road There will be no order coming from a government that's in damage control. The sad part about all of this is that they've thrown the CAF completely under the bus, instead of cleaning house at DND, to save their own asses. Since the average Canadian's view on foreign policy and the military hasn't changed since Trudeau was PM, the CAF is going to be "public enemy #1" again. Until the Canadian public comes to the realization that we require more than a token force, which will be too late at that point, nobody will be willing to spend more than what we did between unification and 9/11. No F-35, and if we're lucky we might get the CF-18's replaced by 2020.
No matter how random things may appear, there's always a plan.
 
connies4ever
Posts: 3393
Joined: Sat Feb 25, 2006 10:54 pm

RE: Canada F-35 Order Facing Scrutiny

Thu Apr 05, 2012 9:44 am

Quoting Powerslide (Reply 144):
I don't ever recall the DND asking the public whether or not we should choose the J model herc or wait for the A400M. Same thing for the C17, there was never a public opinion poll held. Civies may have approved the cash, but not the equipment. You can't seem to grasp the difference.

Going to Parliament with an RFA IS "consulting the public". In case you hadn't noticed.

Quoting Powerslide (Reply 144):
Back on topic. Measuring the total cost of the program is stupid at this stage. When you buy a car, do you also calculate the total cost of gas, maintenance, accident repairs, registration costs, insurance, etc? Your $30,000 mrsp car now costs you $50,000.

Actually, going through the mental exercise right now about a new vehicle. Do I lay out the cash or not ? The life cycle costs represent a lot of taxi rides. I know you are so shocked that a cwivilian can think in such an advanced manner.
Nostalgia isn't what it used to be.
 
Oroka
Posts: 1135
Joined: Sat Dec 09, 2006 4:37 am

RE: Canada F-35 Order Facing Scrutiny

Thu Apr 05, 2012 2:59 pm

Quoting connies4ever (Reply 122):
A scenario that will never occur.

Until China starts selling them to Pakistan, Iran, and any other country what would like a low cost stealth option. What will the Canadian public be saying when the RCAF is senting out dated jets against stealth fighters and the DND says they are simply out classed and it is too dangerous to go into those areas?


The order for the F-35 is not for right now, it is for the future. You dont know what is going happen in 15-20 years. It wouldnt take much for a second cold war to flair up with China.

You know that if the DND does not get thier 65 F-35s, it will be 65 of something inferior, we will not get an increased number. Anything less than the F-35 will be a further decrease in RCAF operational capacity.
 
Centre
Posts: 321
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2010 11:37 pm

RE: Canada F-35 Order Facing Scrutiny

Thu Apr 05, 2012 3:23 pm

Quoting TheCol (Reply 145):
According to the AG report, DND mislead the government.

Isn't DND part of the government?
So it's either the government is lying or the government is incompetent and has no idea what's going on in its backyard

Quoting TheCol (Reply 145):
We'll decide the fate of the Harper government, thank you. Last time I checked, you have your own election to be concerned about.

As a dual citizen, I'm as much Canadian as you are, and have been voting while you were still training on how to kick a ball.
And has been paying taxes through personal and business for almost 2 decades.
This is our money, our hard working money, and it's been abused with no accountability, running the country as if they are running a farm, even a farmer will do a much better job.
I have cut 4 times, and it's still short.
 
connies4ever
Posts: 3393
Joined: Sat Feb 25, 2006 10:54 pm

RE: Canada F-35 Order Facing Scrutiny

Thu Apr 05, 2012 9:06 pm

Quoting Oroka (Reply 147):
Until China starts selling them to Pakistan, Iran, and any other country what would like a low cost stealth option. What will the Canadian public be saying when the RCAF is senting out dated jets against stealth fighters and the DND says they are simply out classed and it is too dangerous to go into those areas?


I am willing to lay a large amount of $$$ on the notion that there will be NO foreign deployments in the foreseeable future. I think Afghanistan has pretty much worn out the CF, at least for now. Notwithstanding a humanitarian deployment to a place like Haiti.

Quoting Powerslide (Reply 149):
Quoting Oroka (Reply 147):
You know that if the DND does not get thier 65 F-35s, it will be 65 of something inferior, we will not get an increased number. Anything less than the F-35 will be a further decrease in RCAF operational capacity.

Most Canadians are too cheap and stupid to realize this.

What a great way to encapsulate your warm and collegial feelings towards your fellow citizens. I am proud to have you as a fellow Canadian.
Nostalgia isn't what it used to be.

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