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kingairta
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RE: F-15E Down In Lybia

Wed Mar 23, 2011 7:26 pm

Quoting jasp25 (Reply 48):
Quoting KingairTA (Reply 45):
Maybe the freindly locals can take this as a lesson don't bum rush a guy just after he landed in a parachute.

That sounds quite arrogant given the pilot was parachuting in a foreign land. I am sure those rebels are not stupid to point their guns at him.

I don't get what you mean by arrogant. Assuming people can learn? If you and your buds seen some people injured cause their group rushed a down pilot would you continue to rush towards downed pilots? If you have half a brain you'd stay away or do it in a more cautious manner.

An angry mob without guns can be just as dangerous as angry mob with guns. And from a couple thousand feet up it's hard to tell if a mob is joyous or vengful as they rush towards your friend.
 
LMP737
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RE: F-15E Down In Lybia

Wed Mar 23, 2011 7:36 pm

Quoting rfields5421 (Reply 46):
Yes they did on several occasions, especially at night when you cannot tell if the people approaching the downed aircraft were civilians or German soldiers.

Given the capabilities of aircraft in WWII trying to destroy wreckage of a downed aircraft at night in Central European weather would seem a bit suicidal. Also with the amount of planes going down trying to do so would have required a 24/7 operation.

[Edited 2011-03-23 12:39:38]
Never take financial advice from co-workers.
 
kingairta
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RE: F-15E Down In Lybia

Wed Mar 23, 2011 7:55 pm

Quoting LMP737 (Reply 51):
Given the capabilities of aircraft in WWII trying to destroy wreckage of a downed aircraft at night in Central European weather would seem a bit suicidal. Also with the amount of planes going down trying to do so would have required a 24/7 operation.

I wonder how often it was even attempted to go and destroy the downed aircraft.
 
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bikerthai
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RE: F-15E Down In Lybia

Wed Mar 23, 2011 8:02 pm

Quoting KingairTA (Reply 52):
I wonder how often it was even attempted to go and destroy the downed aircraft.

Well, it would seem that the Germans were technologically more advanced in air plane technology than the Allies. There would be no need to deprive them of the outdated technology would there?   

bikerthai
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rfields5421
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RE: F-15E Down In Lybia

Wed Mar 23, 2011 8:12 pm

Quoting jasp25 (Reply 48):
I am sure those rebels are not stupid to point their guns at him.

Uh, they shot down their own fighter. That doesn't speak well of their unit fire control discipline.

These rebels are not trained, efficiently led military units. They are just a bit more than an out of control rabble. They don't have unit command and control, leadership or training to be involved with rescuing downed pilots. They obviously don't have the friend or foe recognition signals down. They don't have a proper military communications network.

I would not trust my life to them knowing the aircraft was a US F-15 rather than one of the government MIGs - would you put your life on the line trusting in that distinction, at night with people who are fighting for their very lives and the lives of their families.

Quoting KingairTA (Reply 52):
I wonder how often it was even attempted to go and destroy the downed aircraft.

Early In WWII almost every US aircraft with the Nordon bombsight was the subject of efforts to ensure complete destruction of the aircraft wreckage.
Not all who wander are lost.
 
dragon6172
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RE: F-15E Down In Lybia

Wed Mar 23, 2011 9:37 pm

Quoting jasp25 (Reply 48):
That sounds quite arrogant given the pilot was parachuting in a foreign land. I am sure those rebels are not stupid to point their guns at him.
Quoting rfields5421 (Reply 54):
I would not trust my life to them knowing the aircraft was a US F-15 rather than one of the government MIGs

The rebels interviewed said at first they thought it was one of Ghadaffi's MiGs, so it is perfectly sensible that they could have been approaching the pilot with weapons drawn.
Phrogs Phorever
 
LMP737
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RE: F-15E Down In Lybia

Thu Mar 24, 2011 12:05 am

Quoting rfields5421 (Reply 54):
Early In WWII almost every US aircraft with the Nordon bombsight was the subject of efforts to ensure complete destruction of the aircraft wreckage.

Those early missions often resulted in heavy loss rates for the bombers involved due to the lack of fighter escort. The second raid over Schweinfurt resulted in the loss of sixty B-17's. What were the chances they could find and destroy all of them, especially when the Luftwaffe still held air superiority over Germany at the time.
Never take financial advice from co-workers.
 
jasp25
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RE: F-15E Down In Lybia

Thu Mar 24, 2011 6:42 am

Quoting KingairTA (Reply 50):
An angry mob without guns can be just as dangerous as angry mob with guns. And from a couple thousand feet up it's hard to tell if a mob is joyous or vengful as they rush towards your friend.

"I am angry because I was trying to help the pilot and see if he needed any medical attention," said Ahmed Abdulati Mohamed, a 50-year-old farmer who had been woken by the crash, as he lay in a hospital ward the next day. Bandages on his right leg, dressings on his chest and a strapped ankle showed where the bullets had ricocheted into his body. "

--- I guess that's what that 50-year old farmer get for trying to help! It's a very sad turn of event.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...nite-...-then-the-bullets-fly.html

The other pilot was taken to a hotel, given a suite, a doctor was called to take care of him, and gave him flowers.

--- It sucks when things like these happen, when you accidently hurt or shoot the people you are there to help.

http://www.frumforum.com/libyan-rebels-picked-up-u-s-pilot
-peace and chicken grease!
 
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USAF336TFS
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RE: F-15E Down In Lybia

Thu Mar 24, 2011 8:28 am

Quoting BlueSky1976 (Reply 38):
Some find it very convenient to forget, so allow me to refresh your memory.

And some spin... My understanding is that the 117 was "spotted" by simple human intelligence... A guy sitting in a mountain top listening for aircraft in a known pathway towards targets in Serbia. My memory is just fine, thank you. Having served as a former F-15E WSO, there are facts that I can not disclose nor comment on. But whether or not you wish to believe it, that 117 was probably brought down by nothing more sophisticated then a lucky shot. And I believe that's what the DoD finally admitted to. If you know otherwise, then perhaps you have sources that the AF's intelligence officers would love to talk to.
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chuchoteur
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RE: F-15E Down In Lybia

Thu Mar 24, 2011 8:49 am

Quoting rfields5421 (Reply 54):
Quoting jasp25 (Reply 48):
I am sure those rebels are not stupid to point their guns at him.

Uh, they shot down their own fighter. That doesn't speak well of their unit fire control discipline.

Given that celebrations involve firing whatever weaponry you have (up to and including AA guns - cf news footage), it's a bit difficult to tell friend from foe...

And nobody's got a uniform or a recognisably identifiable vehicle. Tricky.
 
HaveBlue
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RE: F-15E Down In Lybia

Thu Mar 24, 2011 8:54 am

Quoting USAF336TFS (Reply 58):
And some spin... My understanding is that the 117 was "spotted" by simple human intelligence... A guy sitting in a mountain top listening

Thank you for your input, I believe that's closer to the truth than most accounts.
 
Eagleboy
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RE: F-15E Down In Lybia

Thu Mar 24, 2011 10:05 am

Quoting Spacepope (Reply 49):
Don't worry, compensation will be paid and people will forget the incident before you know it.

Well all is forgiven then. What about the report that a guy's son will have to have his leg amputated after being hit by shrapnel?

Quoting jasp25 (Reply 57):
"I am angry because I was trying to help the pilot and see if he needed any medical attention," said Ahmed Abdulati Mohamed, a 50-year-old farmer who had been woken by the crash, as he lay in a hospital ward the next day. Bandages on his right leg, dressings on his chest and a strapped ankle showed where the bullets had ricocheted into his body. "
Quoting USAF336TFS (Reply 58):
My understanding is that the 117 was "spotted" by simple human intelligence... A guy sitting in a mountain top listening for aircraft in a known pathway towards targets in Serbia.

That is my memory of the incident too.
 
hercppmx
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RE: F-15E Down In Lybia

Thu Mar 24, 2011 11:39 am

Quoting ptrjong (Reply 29):
Not so tough actually, as you are implying yourself. The primary aim of the whole operation is supposedly to protect the population. One of your pilots comes down in what is not even likely to be an 'enemy' area, and when coming to rescue him you shoot at everything that moves? You simply need to use restraint in such as situation, even if that does increase the risk for the pilot and the rescuers themselves.

The AV-8B's saw people moving toward the downed airman, They proceeded to drop (2) 500 pound bombs BETWEEN THEM. To allow A MV-22 to land. They did not drop the bombs on the people, even more so they did not open fire with their 25 mm cannons on people. The additional QRF Marines were not deployed outside the Aircrafts. THIS IS RESTRAINT. The people could not be verified friend or foe, that is why they weren't targeted. It was a warning to stay away. Now is it sad that innocent people were injured, yes. You can only use the tools provided to you. Until a banner that says "stay away" is added to the AV-8B's arsenal, The bombs would have to do.
After the 1993 Battle of Mogadishu You can understand why the Marines were ordered to protect pilots downed in unfriendly territory,
Even if the area is "not even likely to be an enemy area" you plan for the worst and pray for the best.
Now in hindsight was it all done perfect? no, you can always improve. As someone who just left active duty, I believe that this was a very fortunate outcome. I applaud that both of the aircrew were recovered so quickly.
C-130; it's a love-hate relationship
 
GPHOTO
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RE: F-15E Down In Lybia

Thu Mar 24, 2011 1:20 pm

Quoting USAF336TFS (Reply 58):
My understanding is that the 117 was "spotted" by simple human intelligence... A guy sitting in a mountain top listening for aircraft in a known pathway towards targets in Serbia.

Sometimes the simple solutions are the best.

The Mark 1 Eyeball and Mark 1 Ear'ole are still very useful detection tools, even today. Dumb bullets are not fazed by stealth, ECM, chaff or flares.

Put the two together and you can still score a success at times, if the circumstances are right.

Best regards,

Jim
Erm, is this thing on?
 
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bikerthai
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RE: F-15E Down In Lybia

Thu Mar 24, 2011 1:54 pm

Quoting Eagleboy (Reply 61):
Well all is forgiven then. What about the report that a guy's son will have to have his leg amputated after being hit by shrapnel?

What would have happened if the Western forces did not step in. Who's to say the son and father would have survived the battle for Benghazi? All is relative my friend, and I'm sure even a Libyan farmer can see the big picture.

bikerthai
Intelligent seeks knowledge. Enlightened seeks wisdom.
 
BMI727
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RE: F-15E Down In Lybia

Thu Mar 24, 2011 2:26 pm

Quoting USAF336TFS (Reply 58):
And some spin... My understanding is that the 117 was "spotted" by simple human intelligence... A guy sitting in a mountain top listening for aircraft in a known pathway towards targets in Serbia. My memory is just fine, thank you. Having served as a former F-15E WSO, there are facts that I can not disclose nor comment on. But whether or not you wish to believe it, that 117 was probably brought down by nothing more sophisticated then a lucky shot.

Like the F-16 lost over Bosnia, the routes taken were becoming predictable, which allowed the spotters armed with cell phones to be in a good position. Also, I think the Serbs modified their radars to work on a lower frequency to allow them brief glimpses of the F-117, and if I remember correctly, the weather was not particularly favorable at the time as well. Between all of that, the Serbs got a good enough shot to hit the Nighthawk.
Why do Aerospace Engineering students have to turn things in on time?
 
jasp25
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RE: F-15E Down In Lybia

Fri Mar 25, 2011 3:23 am

Quoting hercppmx (Reply 62):
Now in hindsight was it all done perfect? no, you can always improve.

Agreed. I understand most soldiers are not out to kill people. Bad luck happens, and they sure suck when they do, that's why they're called accidents. If the marines wanted to hurt the villagers, there would have been a fatality, but there's none.

Thanks for the service, herc.
-peace and chicken grease!
 
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BlueSky1976
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RE: F-15E Down In Lybia

Fri Mar 25, 2011 7:00 am

Quoting USAF336TFS (Reply 58):
But whether or not you wish to believe it, that 117 was probably brought down by nothing more sophisticated then a lucky shot.

I would certainly call a shot that brought down the F-117 more than mere "lucky".
Like other follow-on posters remarked, it was a combination of factors, one of them being the predictable routing of the air raids for the F-117. But the fact remains that US DoD conveniently declined all claims that Nighthawk was brought down by AA fire for over a month at that time. It was only after the numerous of eyewitness accounts of the event were revealed by the European media that the truth was finally admitted by USAF.

That being said, I'm holding onto my opinion regarding lost Strike Eagle in Libya.
The queen of the skies is dead.
 
tu204
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RE: F-15E Down In Lybia

Sat Mar 26, 2011 11:31 am

Quoting BlueSky1976 (Reply 67):
I would certainly call a shot that brought down the F-117 more than mere "lucky".
Like other follow-on posters remarked, it was a combination of factors, one of them being the predictable routing of the air raids for the F-117. But the fact remains that US DoD conveniently declined all claims that Nighthawk was brought down by AA fire for over a month at that time. It was only after the numerous of eyewitness accounts of the event were revealed by the European media that the truth was finally admitted by USAF.
Quoting USAF336TFS (Reply 58):
And some spin... My understanding is that the 117 was "spotted" by simple human intelligence... A guy sitting in a mountain top listening for aircraft in a known pathway towards targets in Serbia. My memory is just fine, thank you. Having served as a former F-15E WSO, there are facts that I can not disclose nor comment on. But whether or not you wish to believe it, that 117 was probably brought down by nothing more sophisticated then a lucky shot. And I believe that's what the DoD finally admitted to. If you know otherwise, then perhaps you have sources that the AF's intelligence officers would love to talk to.

Here's what happened.
The aircraft were using the same route, the captain of the missile battery moved his unit to almost right under the flight path. Then, as you said, "some guy" (spotter) reported that the aircraft were coming his way. He then readied the battery and fired the missile WITHOUT first turning on the targeting radar. This meant that the missile was fired blindly, however, this also meant that the Nighthawk was not painted and was not aware an attack was taking place and thus could not take evasive action. The commander of the battery then activated the targeting radar, painting the target which the missile was more than happy to lock on to. This only gave the enemy aircraft several seconds to realise he was painted and under attack by a radar-tracking missile. Oh, and then - boom.
I would not call that a lucky shot, I would call that excellent use of resources at your disposal. With the outdated equipment and facing an enemy with superior firepower, that is geniusly superb tactics that paid off.
I believe that the F-16 was brought down in a similar manner.

Now my source comes from the "firing" end of that shootdown. So I would call it reliable. Another interesting fact is that I have seen a piece of that F-117 in the company museum of the place where my wife works, it was given by the Serbs as a thank-you gift.  
I do not dream about movie stars, they must dream about me for I am real and they are not. - Alexander Popov
 
AirRyan
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RE: F-15E Down In Lybia

Sat Mar 26, 2011 3:21 pm

Why does the chAir Force jump to conclusions right off the bat and assume it was "mechanical failure," as in the mechanics maintaining the aircraft were ultimately the root-cause for the crash? Would seem to me to be as inappropriate as saying the pilot erred which may very well prove to be the case, but just not something that can be readily concluded (at least to the public,) in the first few days after the crash?

All I know is that F-15E's don't have a habit of falling out the sky, particularly so in a low-threat environment.

I like how the British Guardian jumps to the perspective of a "botched recovery." All those Marines on the rescue effort doing the firing knew at that time was that an F-15 went down (again, F-15's don't have a habit of just falling out of the sky,) and you can't readily tell friendly's from un-friendlies on the ground from the air.

Libya: Six injured as US team botches rescue of downed airmen
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/mar/22/libya-downed-airmen-rescue
 
BMI727
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RE: F-15E Down In Lybia

Sat Mar 26, 2011 8:38 pm

Quoting AirRyan (Reply 69):
Why does the chAir Force jump to conclusions right off the bat and assume it was "mechanical failure,"

Because that's what was in the reports about the incident? Of course, if you would rather have everyone ignore the reports and jump to their own conclusions...

Quoting AirRyan (Reply 69):
as in the mechanics maintaining the aircraft were ultimately the root-cause for the crash?

That isn't necessarily the case at all. What if it was something along the lines of a birdstrike?
Why do Aerospace Engineering students have to turn things in on time?
 
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Spacepope
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RE: F-15E Down In Lybia

Sat Mar 26, 2011 8:42 pm

Quoting BMI727 (Reply 70):
That isn't necessarily the case at all. What if it was something along the lines of a birdstrike?

Sure, or an engine failure/fire taking out the other one...

Nah, could never be that simple. Let's instead indulge in conspiracy theories and completely ignore all other evidence.
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BMI727
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RE: F-15E Down In Lybia

Sat Mar 26, 2011 9:21 pm

Quoting Spacepope (Reply 71):
Sure, or an engine failure/fire taking out the other one...

Nah, could never be that simple. Let's instead indulge in conspiracy theories and completely ignore all other evidence.

I'm not suggesting that as an actual cause, just pointing out that "mechanical failure" does not necessarily mean blaming the mechanics in charge of maintaining the plane.
Why do Aerospace Engineering students have to turn things in on time?
 
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USAF336TFS
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RE: F-15E Down In Lybia

Sun Mar 27, 2011 12:35 pm

Quoting BlueSky1976 (Reply 67):

I would certainly call a shot that brought down the F-117 more than mere "lucky".
Quoting tu204 (Reply 68):
I would not call that a lucky shot, I would call that excellent use of resources at your disposal. With the outdated equipment and facing an enemy with superior firepower, that is geniusly superb tactics that paid off.

I guess it comes down to your perspective then, whether it was a lucky shot or not. I call it lucky because it happened once, and I see it as extraordinarily lucky. Perhaps if that "resource" you mentioned was spotted by an A-10 he wouldn't have had such a "superb" tactically, lucky day.... Perhaps that day could have turned into a day were his pieces would be the ones being searched for...

Talk about luck...

[Edited 2011-03-27 06:25:14]
336th Tactical Fighter Squadron, 4th Fighter Wing, Seymour Johnson AFB
 
chuchoteur
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RE: F-15E Down In Lybia

Sun Mar 27, 2011 2:04 pm

Quoting USAF336TFS (Reply 73):
I guess it comes down to your perspective then, whether it was a lucky shot or not.

You make your own luck, by placing his unit underneath a well-flown corridor the battery commander increased his probabilities of firing at an aircraft...

In the same way, would you say it was "unlucky" for the aircraft to be continually flying down the same routes?
A few lessons were learnt on both sides...
 
tu204
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RE: F-15E Down In Lybia

Sun Mar 27, 2011 10:04 pm

Quoting chuchoteur (Reply 74):
You make your own luck, by placing his unit underneath a well-flown corridor the battery commander increased his probabilities of firing at an aircraft...

Exactly, he analysed all his data, his capabilities and chose the proper course of action giving him the "best luck" (highest probability of success). If I was fighting a war I would want to have this guy on my side, whether he was firing "lucky" (calculated) shots with a slingshot or blasting away Patriot or S-400 missiles. Technology isn't everything, there is a HUGE human factor involved.
I do not dream about movie stars, they must dream about me for I am real and they are not. - Alexander Popov
 
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spudh
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RE: F-15E Down In Lybia

Mon Mar 28, 2011 11:45 am

The F-15 'none shot down' record is in Air to Air combat, an exchange rate of 100+ for zero losses.

Not air to ground, so that conspiracy theory is out, this is not going to put anyones nose out of joint.

You can expect some spin promoting the JSF out of this in the same way there was when an F-14 was lost to ground fire over Iraq. The top brass in the Navy started jumping up and down about the urgent need to replace the F-14 with the more survivable F18 E/F.

You'll see some claims later that the stealth features of the JSF would likely have reduced the risk of a shooting down if thats what it turns out to be.
 
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BlueSky1976
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RE: F-15E Down In Lybia

Wed Mar 30, 2011 2:38 am

Quoting USAF336TFS (Reply 73):
I guess it comes down to your perspective then, whether it was a lucky shot or not. I call it lucky because it happened once, and I see it as extraordinarily lucky.

I suggest you read the below quote then:

Quoting tu204 (Reply 68):
The aircraft were using the same route, the captain of the missile battery moved his unit to almost right under the flight path. Then, as you said, "some guy" (spotter) reported that the aircraft were coming his way. He then readied the battery and fired the missile WITHOUT first turning on the targeting radar. This meant that the missile was fired blindly, however, this also meant that the Nighthawk was not painted and was not aware an attack was taking place and thus could not take evasive action. The commander of the battery then activated the targeting radar, painting the target which the missile was more than happy to lock on to. This only gave the enemy aircraft several seconds to realise he was painted and under attack by a radar-tracking missile. Oh, and then - boom.

Brilliant tactics. Kudos and respect to the team that brought down the Nighthawk for a job well done.
The queen of the skies is dead.
 
LMP737
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RE: F-15E Down In Lybia

Wed Mar 30, 2011 2:43 am

Quoting spudh (Reply 76):
The top brass in the Navy started jumping up and down about the urgent need to replace the F-14 with the more survivable F18 E/F.



I still have not figured out what makes it more survivable.
Never take financial advice from co-workers.
 
LMP737
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RE: F-15E Down In Lybia

Wed Mar 30, 2011 2:48 am

Quoting BlueSky1976 (Reply 77):
Brilliant tactics. Kudos and respect to the team that brought down the Nighthawk for a job well done.



Aided an abetted by the stupidity of the people planning the missions.
Never take financial advice from co-workers.
 
rfields5421
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RE: F-15E Down In Lybia

Wed Mar 30, 2011 3:36 am

Quoting LMP737 (Reply 79):
Aided an abetted by the stupidity of the people planning the missions.



Never underestimate the power of human stupidity.

The military forces of many nations are frequently given limitations and requirements for such things as attack routes which result in a very predictable flight path and schedule. Not just from the politicians. Frequently the worst enemy of the combat pilot / soldier / sailor is the REMFs in their own chain of command.

While some might be unhappy with having a Commander in Chief who never has been on the receiving end of a shot fired in anger, there are way too many generals and admirals in the five sided monument to government efficiency who also have never been there either.
Not all who wander are lost.
 
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USAF336TFS
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RE: F-15E Down In Lybia

Wed Mar 30, 2011 7:44 am

Quoting BlueSky1976 (Reply 77):
Quoting USAF336TFS (Reply 73):
I guess it comes down to your perspective then, whether it was a lucky shot or not. I call it lucky because it happened once, and I see it as extraordinarily lucky.

I suggest you read the below quote then:

Quoting tu204 (Reply 68):
The aircraft were using the same route, the captain of the missile battery moved his unit to almost right under the flight path. Then, as you said, "some guy" (spotter) reported that the aircraft were coming his way. He then readied the battery and fired the missile WITHOUT first turning on the targeting radar. This meant that the missile was fired blindly, however, this also meant that the Nighthawk was not painted and was not aware an attack was taking place and thus could not take evasive action. The commander of the battery then activated the targeting radar, painting the target which the missile was more than happy to lock on to. This only gave the enemy aircraft several seconds to realise he was painted and under attack by a radar-tracking missile. Oh, and then - boom.

Brilliant tactics. Kudos and respect to the team that brought down the Nighthawk for a job well done.
Quoting BlueSky1976 (Reply 77):
Quoting USAF336TFS (Reply 73):
I guess it comes down to your perspective then, whether it was a lucky shot or not. I call it lucky because it happened once, and I see it as extraordinarily lucky.

I suggest you read the below quote then:

Quoting tu204 (Reply 68):
The aircraft were using the same route, the captain of the missile battery moved his unit to almost right under the flight path. Then, as you said, "some guy" (spotter) reported that the aircraft were coming his way. He then readied the battery and fired the missile WITHOUT first turning on the targeting radar. This meant that the missile was fired blindly, however, this also meant that the Nighthawk was not painted and was not aware an attack was taking place and thus could not take evasive action. The commander of the battery then activated the targeting radar, painting the target which the missile was more than happy to lock on to. This only gave the enemy aircraft several seconds to realise he was painted and under attack by a radar-tracking missile. Oh, and then - boom.

Brilliant tactics. Kudos and respect to the team that brought down the Nighthawk for a job well done.

And that means what???? You interpret the tactics as "brilliant". I don't. They saw a pattern that military planners didn't bother changing, which I call anything but brilliant and took advantage of it. I think you're trying to imply that the technology of the F-117 was defeated by the lolly Serbs. I'm saying that is false.
336th Tactical Fighter Squadron, 4th Fighter Wing, Seymour Johnson AFB
 
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bikerthai
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RE: F-15E Down In Lybia

Wed Mar 30, 2011 1:51 pm

Quoting USAF336TFS (Reply 81):
You interpret the tactics as "brilliant". I don't.

I would agree. The tactics performed by the Serb should be considered "Standard Practice".

- Use your "Intelligence" to determine scope out the tactic of your opponent.
- Put your assets in place to counter your opponents action.
- Execute. (And cross your fingers)

So the tactics may not be "brilliant" but it was executed brilliantly because it DID bring down the F117. The same can not be said to the USAF planners.

Don't forget, there was an overall plan by the Serb to counter (fool) NATO air superiority. I never got the final tally on how much of the Serb forces NATO managed to destroy. Last I heard, NATO bombed a bunch of decoys. Was this a myth?

bikerthai
Intelligent seeks knowledge. Enlightened seeks wisdom.
 
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spudh
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RE: F-15E Down In Lybia

Wed Mar 30, 2011 2:47 pm

Quoting USAF336TFS (Reply 81):
And that means what???? You interpret the tactics as "brilliant". I don't. They saw a pattern that military planners didn't bother changing, which I call anything but brilliant and took advantage of it. I think you're trying to imply that the technology of the F-117 was defeated by the lolly Serbs. I'm saying that is false.

With all due respect, how exactly would you define the shooting down of an aircraft if it's not defeating its technology. The F117's primary defence technology is designed to defeat radar guided missiles. It was brought down by a radar guided missile.

This F117 wasn't brought down with a flak barrage where you had thousands of pieces of shrapnel for the aircraft to run into with enough 'dumb luck'. It was brought down with a missile aimed at it. This is two pieces of machinery travelling 500mph+ meeting at the same place and time in 3 dimensional space. Even if it was one missile of a ripple fire it's still quite a piece of work to bring it down.

The success rate for AIM7 missiles fired in Vietnam was of the order of less than 10% (its a good bit less but I don't have the actual figure to hand). The pilots got themselves into firing solutions but they still missed over 90% of the time. Do you define that the successful hits were lucky shots? Were the US aces just the result of dumb luck, I think not.


On this particular intercept, the missile battery operators maneuvered themselves into a firing position based on a predicted flight path, calculated a firing solution based on data from available sensors (mark 1 human ear), Fired a missile using mid course guidance (i.e. ballistically using a calulated intercept point) and then switched on their radar within the correct parameters to provide final homing signal to a successful shootdown but outside the parameters of a retaliatory strike. All done, on the fly, in the field without the computing power of a cray supercomputer to hand.

I fail to see what part of that firing solution is dumb luck.

IMHO this was a masterclass in tactical thinking and maximising available resources.

You should not allow pride or patriotism to cloud your judgement and be unable to see the significance of what happened. It very much reminds me of the Swedish intercepts of the SR-71 Blackbird but at least the Blackbird operators had the tactical nous to recognise the skill involved in a successful intercept and duly awarded the Viggen crews the recognition for any successful intercept. And more importantly the SR-71 crews learned from the intercepts and refined their tactics accordingly.

If you are unable to recognize the capabilities of your adversary then you will not be able to formulate tactics to counter them (simple in this case). The same 'dumb luck' that has brought down 'great' military leaders in the past will continue to befall any leader who makes this mistake.

[Edited 2011-03-30 07:49:45]
 
chuchoteur
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RE: F-15E Down In Lybia

Wed Mar 30, 2011 5:48 pm

Quoting USAF336TFS (Reply 81):
I think you're trying to imply that the technology of the F-117 was defeated by the lolly Serbs. I'm saying that is false.

... the technology of the F-117 was defeated by bad planning from the home side.

The serb commander was brilliant in recognising a defect in tactical planning that a few hundred (or more) "expert" planners in a 5-sided building (as well as elsewhere) failed to identify. That puts him in the top percentile of tactically minded people there at the time (comparative, vs. objective - I agree there's little merit in being the smartest out of a bunch of dumb people, but still!).

Lessons are sometimes learnt the hard way...

This being said, I know a senior swiss military radar controller who routinely painted F117 and B2 aircraft.
He recognised the refuelling patterns around his borders, and managed to get returns on the aircraft being refuelled, as well as being able to track them due to their predictable inbound/outbound trajectories. And they (apparently) often took an (unapproved) shortcut across Switzerland.

He believes he could have scored hits if he'd wanted to.

Obviously the USAF isn't at war with Switzerland, and in real operations you probably wouldn't be able to track those aircraft (he could only do so knowing their point of origin or destination), but it shows again that if you're predictable, you're in a heap of trouble. Lesson learnt after that F117 went down I'm sure!
 
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bikerthai
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RE: F-15E Down In Lybia

Wed Mar 30, 2011 6:46 pm

Quoting chuchoteur (Reply 84):

This being said, I know a senior swiss military radar controller who routinely painted F117 and B2 aircraft.

Interesting info.

So if the radar controller see a "sparrow" (the bird) flying at Mach .6, in an area near a tanker, then he can assume it's a stealth  

bikerthai
Intelligent seeks knowledge. Enlightened seeks wisdom.
 
chuchoteur
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RE: F-15E Down In Lybia

Wed Mar 30, 2011 7:08 pm

Quoting bikerthai (Reply 85):
Interesting info.

So if the radar controller see a "sparrow" (the bird) flying at Mach .6, in an area near a tanker, then he can assume it's a stealth

Well, when you know what you're looking for and your search area has been seriously narrowed down, you eventually find them  

To be fair, he only started off finding them when he could see tankers up and nothing behind them. And then once you start getting an idea of the signature and you know where they're coming from or going to, well...

Apparently they tracked them across Swiss airspace without significantly increasing the signal strength to paint them in order to keep things on a "normal" level. He believes that if he'd really lit up he'd have had a firm lock, I'm not so sure it'd be enough for a kill, but certainly the first pilot to get the treatment would have had little reaction time.

Everybody knew what was going on, but it was altogether more convenient for all parties to look the other way (the USAF took the shortcut, the Swiss took another chunk of chocolate and a coffee, perfect).
 
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bikerthai
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RE: F-15E Down In Lybia

Wed Mar 30, 2011 8:40 pm

Quoting chuchoteur (Reply 86):

To be fair, he only started off finding them when he could see tankers up and nothing behind them. And then once you start getting an idea of the signature and you know where they're coming from or going to, well...

So the US planners should now know not to have stealthy planes tank up where hostile radar can spot the tanker.   

bikerthai
Intelligent seeks knowledge. Enlightened seeks wisdom.
 
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USAF336TFS
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RE: F-15E Down In Lybia

Wed Mar 30, 2011 9:33 pm

Quoting bikerthai (Reply 82):
I would agree. The tactics performed by the Serb should be considered "Standard Practice".

- Use your "Intelligence" to determine scope out the tactic of your opponent.
- Put your assets in place to counter your opponents action.
- Execute. (And cross your fingers)

So the tactics may not be "brilliant" but it was executed brilliantly because it DID bring down the F117. The same can not be said to the USAF planners.

Don't forget, there was an overall plan by the Serb to counter (fool) NATO air superiority. I never got the final tally on how much of the Serb forces NATO managed to destroy. Last I heard, NATO bombed a bunch of decoys. Was this a myth?

I generally agree with your points. However, I was commenting on the posters assertions that the DoD "propagandized" the 117s downing, and gave the Serbs some kind of master warrior status in the process. My guess is that it could have easily been an F-16 or Tornado that was downed in that moment, because the attack patterns were well known. Most of the land-based NATO aircraft originated from Aviano and had a predictable attack vector.
Did the Serbs take advantage of that? Absolutely. Did they have a secret weapon that could distinguish a 117 from ground clutter or from a small bird? Not to my knowledge... I share the feelings of those who criticized NATO leadership for "politicizing" the avenues of attack which allowed the downing of not only the 117 but other NATO aircraft.
In 91, Iraq had a far more sophisticated air defense system which was rendered useless, to a large extent because of it's inability to counter the 117.
336th Tactical Fighter Squadron, 4th Fighter Wing, Seymour Johnson AFB
 
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BlueSky1976
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RE: F-15E Down In Lybia

Thu Mar 31, 2011 3:36 am

Quoting USAF336TFS (Reply 88):
I generally agree with your points. However, I was commenting on the posters assertions that the DoD "propagandized" the 117s downing, and gave the Serbs some kind of master warrior status in the process.

I strongly suggest you reading my posts again, then:

Quoting BlueSky1976 (Reply 67):
US DoD conveniently declined all claims that Nighthawk was brought down by AA fire for over a month at that time. It was only after the numerous of eyewitness accounts of the event were revealed by the European media that the truth was finally admitted by USAF.
Quoting BlueSky1976 (Reply 38):
For more than a month after that event, the US DoD tried to convince the general public worldwide that the Nighthawk was lost due to the technical failure and that it was hit by AA fire after it broke down and the pilot ejected. This turned out to be false and the US finally admitted that F-117 was indeed detected and shot down, some believe with help from the mobile "Tamara" radar.

DoD did "propagandize" the event in a negative way, as shown above. They denied the fact of shooting down the Nighthawk even after it was proven by other (non - US) sources the plane was intentionally and successfully shot down.

Regarding the Serbian master warrior status: I give credit where it's due, and in the case of the F-117 shootdown over Serbia, the defenders of Serbia did a brilliant job - whether you like it or not. You may argue with my opinion, but you cannot argue with the facts.
The queen of the skies is dead.
 
rheinwaldner
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RE: F-15E Down In Lybia

Thu Mar 31, 2011 7:21 am

Quoting chuchoteur (Reply 84):
He believes he could have scored hits if he'd wanted to.

With what? Rapiers, Bloodhounds?
Many things are difficult, all things are possible!
 
tu204
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RE: F-15E Down In Lybia

Thu Mar 31, 2011 7:57 am

Quoting LMP737 (Reply 79):
Aided an abetted by the stupidity of the people planning the missions.

It takes some brains to realise that and then some more brains to turn that into your advantage and act on it. In this case, the planners didn't have the brains to realise their mistake, and the Serb commander had the brains to realise the weakness, turn it to his advantage and then act on it.

Quoting USAF336TFS (Reply 81):
And that means what???? You interpret the tactics as "brilliant". I don't. They saw a pattern that military planners didn't bother changing, which I call anything but brilliant and took advantage of it. I think you're trying to imply that the technology of the F-117 was defeated by the lolly Serbs. I'm saying that is false.

I beg to differ, and there's a bit of wreckage to prove that point. However you want to put it, it got shot down using effective tactics. I agree that it could have been any aircraft that night, but point remains, it was a F-117 and it was downed.

Quoting USAF336TFS (Reply 88):
In 91, Iraq had a far more sophisticated air defense system which was rendered useless, to a large extent because of it's inability to counter the 117.

The Iraqis failed miserably because they had horrible commanders who wouldn't know good tactics if it bit them in the face. Its one thing to have good equipment and a whole other thing to be able to use it properly and to coordinate your actions. Something the Serbs were good at doing with the limited equipment that they had.


Heres another example for you that actually has something to do with Libya: Sometime in the 80's a pair of F-14's shot down a pair of Libyan MiG-25's. The main factor here was that the Libyans were coming in high, the F14's dropped down to near sea level and then both acted. Since the MiGs were painted against a clear sky, they stood out like two bright flashlights in the dark (in terms of radar) while the F14's were painted against the ocean (i.e. one solid object near another). Obviously the F14s had a better lock and scored two hits.
Now using your logic, they got lucky. I say: good tactics on part of the Americans and miserable tactics on the Libyan's parts.
I do not dream about movie stars, they must dream about me for I am real and they are not. - Alexander Popov
 
chuchoteur
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RE: F-15E Down In Lybia

Thu Mar 31, 2011 9:03 am

Quoting rheinwaldner (Reply 90):
Quoting chuchoteur (Reply 84):
He believes he could have scored hits if he'd wanted to.

With what? Rapiers, Bloodhounds?

At the time, would have been Bloodhounds, I'm pretty sure the USAF didn't cut the corner so much as to be within Rapier range... I don't necessarily agree he could've got a hit, as if he'd lit up I'm pretty sure the ECM reaction on the B2/F117's would have been interesting, however the point is, they were very predictable in their trajectories therefore he could "see" them  
 
kingairta
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RE: F-15E Down In Lybia

Thu Mar 31, 2011 1:13 pm

Thread hi-jack

I propose we get a new thread or get back on track.
 
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spudh
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RE: F-15E Down In Lybia

Thu Mar 31, 2011 1:31 pm

Quoting tu204 (Reply 91):
Heres another example for you that actually has something to do with Libya: Sometime in the 80's a pair of F-14's shot down a pair of Libyan MiG-25's

At the risk of pedantry, they were MiG-23's, not 25's, largely immaterial to your point though.
 
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bikerthai
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RE: F-15E Down In Lybia

Thu Mar 31, 2011 1:59 pm

Quoting BlueSky1976 (Reply 89):

DoD did "propagandize" the event in a negative way, as shown above.

In war there is always "propaganda" by all side. The DOD would not be doing their job if they did not put out mis-information (to the public) for any reason. Now if they provided mis-information to the "Congress" then there be laws broken.

Quoting USAF336TFS (Reply 88):
My guess is that it could have easily been an F-16 or Tornado that was downed in that moment,

But didn't someone here said that an F-16 WAS brought down in a similar manner?

Quoting KingairTA (Reply 93):
Thread hi-jack

True, but I did learn something about stealth and the F117 incident. Thanks for the conversations.

bikerthai
Intelligent seeks knowledge. Enlightened seeks wisdom.
 
chuchoteur
Posts: 610
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RE: F-15E Down In Lybia

Thu Mar 31, 2011 4:24 pm

Quoting bikerthai (Reply 95):
But didn't someone here said that an F-16 WAS brought down in a similar manner?

I guess that's the F16C flown by Scott O'Grady?

Spent almost a week hiding in the bushes, eating ants and making friends with a cow before the area he'd fallen in was safe enough for the CSAR team to fly in and pick him up if I remember correctly.

As I recall it was an SA6 shot fired "blind", he didn't realise he was being targeted until they lit up and his F-16 became 2 separate bits...
 
tu204
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RE: F-15E Down In Lybia

Fri Apr 01, 2011 4:12 am

Quoting bikerthai (Reply 95):
But didn't someone here said that an F-16 WAS brought down in a similar manner?
Quoting chuchoteur (Reply 96):
As I recall it was an SA6 shot fired "blind", he didn't realise he was being targeted until they lit up and his F-16 became 2 separate bits...

Yes, almost the same manner, different SAM commander though. Also different SAM system used the one that shot down the F16 (Kub) is a a more mobile close range unit while the one used for the F117 (Neva) is more of a longer range, more powerful and less mobile machine. The two are not related and are made by different companies, but the radar is made by NIIP...who's museum I had the privilege of visiting because my wife has the burden of working there  
Quoting spudh (Reply 94):
At the risk of pedantry, they were MiG-23's, not 25's, largely immaterial to your point though.

My bad.  

Edit: What I have posted is not information classified by the Russian Federation and I do not have any Form of security clearance. The information is available to the public, you just have to know a bit of Serbian and Russian and dig very deep to verify it.

[Edited 2011-03-31 21:21:45]
I do not dream about movie stars, they must dream about me for I am real and they are not. - Alexander Popov
 
BMI727
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RE: F-15E Down In Lybia

Fri Apr 01, 2011 4:52 am

Quoting chuchoteur (Reply 96):
As I recall it was an SA6 shot fired "blind", he didn't realise he was being targeted until they lit up and his F-16 became 2 separate bits...

Again, it was effective tactics. But, those tactics were effective in large part because of the mistakes made by the Americans. Both incidents were more an example of people screwing up and giving up the advantage of their technology.
Why do Aerospace Engineering students have to turn things in on time?
 
chuchoteur
Posts: 610
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RE: F-15E Down In Lybia

Fri Apr 01, 2011 7:32 am

Quoting BMI727 (Reply 98):
Again, it was effective tactics. But, those tactics were effective in large part because of the mistakes made by the Americans. Both incidents were more an example of people screwing up and giving up the advantage of their technology.

O'Grady was on station, patrolling the no-fly zone (remind you of anything?), therefore his position was very predictable and there was nothing he could do about it!

From what I recall he felt protected because he was high up, above a layer of cloud cover, and nothing was showing on his ECM. It was a high-risk environment nonetheless, and it must've been uncomfortable for him to go from king of the world to behind ennemy lines...

Technology can't do everything, sometimes you get hit.

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