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mrg
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RE: Tentor: A400M No Competitors For The Next 10 Years

Sun Aug 11, 2013 2:35 pm

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 47):
Which standards are those? Where and when has it proven itself in the 'field' or in a combat zone?

It's quite simple really. You take a desired payload and fly it somewhere. You measure the fuelburn. This then allows you to calculate range. It's within spec or it isn't. Then you find yourself an unprepared strip with a desired rating- let's say CBR 6. You make multiple passes and then inspect the strip for degradation. Either the results meet or exceed minima or they don't.
A Stryker with slat armour doesn't suddenly weigh more in times of conflict. A 1000 Metre runway doesn't suddenly shrink in times of crisis. An airframe doesn't suddenly become less rugged in wartime.

The A400M will behave in times of war just as it behaved during troop trials. No worse and no better.

With the possible exception of AAMs and ABMs I can't think of a piece of equipment that cannot be adequately trialled prior to actual combat so as to obviate unexpected performance shortfalls.
 
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RE: Tentor: A400M No Competitors For The Next 10 Years

Sun Aug 11, 2013 3:52 pm

Quoting 11Bravo (Reply 48):
It may not have any serious competition for the next decade. Then again, there may not really be any market for the next decade either. Where are the customers?

I think that has to be a major worry for the program. Even the original orders have been cut back by the "rich" European nations and South Africa has cancelled. You will probably get some orders for a few frames from "aspiring" nations but not likely to sum up to carry the program long term. Thus you get the plausible yet not particularly relevant if not despirate comment from people like Tentor. Given that Airbus lost the claim they launched about Boeing's misleading statements on the 747-8i, it seems the new norm is that all involved agree we should just accept bull droppings posing as facts without complaint, but I think I'll remain a loyal dissenter.
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mrg
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RE: Tentor: A400M No Competitors For The Next 10 Years

Sun Aug 11, 2013 5:22 pm

Given that Germany and Spain together will be actively seeking to place a combined total of around 25 of their own commitments with other airforces the chances for any real export orders beyond those achieved already are slim.
I'm probably alone in thinking that some C-17 customers, having recognised the benefits of being able to transport outsize cargo yet mindful of the limitations imposed by turbofans, may well go for a few A400Ms that Germany and Spain will be offloading- or at least trying to.
 
sweair
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RE: Tentor: A400M No Competitors For The Next 10 Years

Sun Aug 11, 2013 9:04 pm

I still think EU-air forces should buy the last 10-15 C17s off the FAL to pool like NATO does. That would give this continent a bit more power behind its words. If we can waste 100s of billions on the banks..
 
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RE: Tentor: A400M No Competitors For The Next 10 Years

Sun Aug 11, 2013 11:05 pm

Quoting Bogi (Thread starter):

Best opportunities for export?

None.   
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RE: Tentor: A400M No Competitors For The Next 10 Years

Tue Aug 13, 2013 11:59 am

Quoting Revelation (Reply 17):
Not sure of what to make of such a statistic. One interpretation could be that A400M carries 100% of NATO's bicycles and 0% of NATO's main battle tanks.
Quoting mrg (Reply 27):
The A400M from a European perspective: we don't have any ambition to transport MBTs to distant parts of the world.

The European nations are buying an a/c that does have the capability to transport the majority of their military vehicles, for me the bigger question is where? Intra Europe trains are much cheaper and the participation in NATO projects in distant regions of the world after Afghanistan is going to be virtually nill, at least from a political perspective, ditto the USA asking for help, odds are that the only receptive participant would be NATO in which case since the US Government wil be picking up the bulk of the cost, the US Air Force will be doing the job.
It does however, open up a big quid pro quo issue, European nations purchase additional A400M's available to the US, or the US Air Force purchase them to ensure European participation.

Quoting wingman (Reply 46):
The thing that's so nice about the A400 is that for the first time in a long time it will allow some role reversal in future allied military operations. The US will largely be left in the role of intercontinental freight lifter where we get the goods to the theater of action, secure major points of entry, and then hand over the nasty bit of getting personnel and equipment to the front lines to Germany, The UK, Spain, and France. That's what this plane is for and this is what it's going to mean. I think that suits everyone's capabilities almost perfectly.

Except the political one which is actually what will drive such a confrontation, now France has virtually gone it alone in Africa save for the fact that they needed a few UK C-17's for airlift, as more A400M's enter their fleet they will be more independent, note sure how valuable that is since no one seemed to have had any questions or concerns on French involvement to attempt to hold back or negotiate logistical assistance.
 
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RE: Tentor: A400M No Competitors For The Next 10 Years

Wed Aug 14, 2013 4:18 pm

Quoting sweair (Reply 53):
I still think EU-air forces should buy the last 10-15 C17s off the FAL to pool like NATO does

That's a a lot planes to keep busy. Three C-17s and two AN-124s would be enough.

Quoting par13del (Reply 55):
for me the bigger question is where?

North Africa mostly. The Arab Spring is getting nowhere quick. That, coupled with internal strife in other countries south of the Mahgreb means that sooner or later an Anglo-French led intervention is quite likely. Although extremely unlikely it is not impossible that at some point we'll have to support a Turkish led Intervention in Syria to create a safe haven.
 
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RE: Tentor: A400M No Competitors For The Next 10 Years

Wed Aug 14, 2013 4:52 pm

Quoting GDB (Reply 11):
I don't think that the USAF will ever buy the A400M, or that they need to.

If the A400M line stays open for the foreseeable future (meaning beyond the ~180 orders garnered so far), I could see the USAF ordering some eventually. There are a number of C-17s that have been flown pretty hard over the past decade and with Boeing's FAL shutting down eventually, when it comes time to replace those 17s the easy option may be to grab some of the 400s.

Also, I see a lot of trashing of the A400 still going on with regards to how it could serve the EU's interests. But if we look at it closely, this plane was a clean-sheet design intended to serve the EU's military requirements. We can't say the plane comes up short compared to the C-17. The C-17 was designed to fill a role in the U.S.'s military lift requirements which are, after all, different from the EU's. Perhaps the A400 is way over budget and has incurred massive delays, but has there been ANY major defense procurement program in recent years that hasn't incurred those issues?
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RE: Tentor: A400M No Competitors For The Next 10 Years

Wed Aug 14, 2013 8:31 pm

Quoting redflyer (Reply 57):
If the A400M line stays open for the foreseeable future (meaning beyond the ~180 orders garnered so far), I could see the USAF ordering some eventually. There are a number of C-17s that have been flown pretty hard over the past decade and with Boeing's FAL shutting down eventually, when it comes time to replace those 17s the easy option may be to grab some of the 400s.

In this day and age of defense budget squeeze in the tune of $1/2 T in next decade, chances of the USAF ever buys the A400M is practically zero. Keep in mind it's not the USAF who decides what to buy; it's the US Congress to decide, predominantly the House of Reps. It would be very tough, if not political suicide, for a congressman to go back to his district to tell voters: by the way, we closed down the Boeing line, and now we are going to buy that European Airbus kits. Would go over too well, I predict! That congressman would be out of the perks being in Congress before too long. Even if A400M is the only game in town, which I doubt. It's all politics, and would be ever more political when money was tight. It's not about engineering or cost.
 
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RE: Tentor: A400M No Competitors For The Next 10 Years

Wed Aug 14, 2013 8:57 pm

I see where you are coming from and to varying degrees have argued some of the same points in the past.

I think it's good to put yourself into the mindset of the earliest days of the program in the early 1990s and consider the mindset back then. It seems to me the main focus of the program was intra-Europe or northern Africa type scenarios, for example Kosovo. The heavy use of the IED and the resulting need to up-armor even the more modern vehicles hadn't happened yet.

Quoting par13del (Reply 55):
Intra Europe trains are much cheaper

But vulnerable / risky to use in wartime since you may not control the places the trains run and of course you can't easily change that.

Quoting par13del (Reply 55):
participation in NATO projects in distant regions of the world after Afghanistan is going to be virtually nill

That's a hard statement to make. No one was really predicting 9/11/2001 and it happened, and that led (rightly or wrongly) to Afghanistan. No one can say which adventures the A400M will or will not be sent on.

Quoting par13del (Reply 55):
since the US Government wil be picking up the bulk of the cost, the US Air Force will be doing the job.

Many of our a.net posters will point out that a major goal of A400M was to preserve European technical/manufacturing capabilities, thus you have the A400M, regardless of cost. Note that the customers had the ability to shut down the program only a few years ago, but these same customers were also major Airbus stakeholders and making Airbus fulfill their obligations would have been a severe blow to Airbus, so it just wasn't going to happen.

Quoting redflyer (Reply 57):
If the A400M line stays open for the foreseeable future (meaning beyond the ~180 orders garnered so far), I could see the USAF ordering some eventually. There are a number of C-17s that have been flown pretty hard over the past decade and with Boeing's FAL shutting down eventually, when it comes time to replace those 17s the easy option may be to grab some of the 400s.

I don't. Congress has been ordering frames that the USAF doesn't want for quite a while now. Plus we got 160 or so 767 tankers coming along that can pitch in with the hauling if/when needed.

Quoting redflyer (Reply 57):
Perhaps the A400 is way over budget and has incurred massive delays, but has there been ANY major defense procurement program in recent years that hasn't incurred those issues?

Not sure why we should accept overruns just because they happened in the past. Seems then we can just not bother with budgets and let the contractor present the bill when they decide the project is done. Note that when US contractors deal with non-US contracts they actually do end up paying penalties - see Wedgetail for an example.
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RE: Tentor: A400M No Competitors For The Next 10 Years

Wed Aug 14, 2013 11:42 pm

Quoting Revelation (Reply 59):
Congress has been ordering frames that the USAF doesn't want for quite a while now.

I'm not so sure the USAF didn't want them as much as they weren't a priority for the USAF in an era of tight budgets. They seem to have put them to good use nonetheless and have worked them quite hard. Imagine if they had ordered 20% fewer frames how much harder the rest of the fleet would have been worked.

Quoting Revelation (Reply 59):
Quoting redflyer (Reply 57):
Perhaps the A400 is way over budget and has incurred massive delays, but has there been ANY major defense procurement program in recent years that hasn't incurred those issues?

Not sure why we should accept overruns just because they happened in the past.

We shouldn't. I was just commenting that many people have stated that the A400M should have been canceled because of budget overruns and delays. If that is the sole criteria that is to be used then many programs in the modern era, starting with the F-14 and every major aircraft since, should have been cancelled.

Anyway, I jumped into this thread when someone said the USAF would never order the A400M. Perhaps. But I could also see a scenario, which I elucidated, that could conceivably see the A400M in USAF markings.

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kanban
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RE: Tentor: A400M No Competitors For The Next 10 Years

Thu Aug 15, 2013 12:32 am

Quoting redflyer (Reply 60):
I'm not so sure the USAF didn't want them

Like every military, they want anything that might give them an edge.. the question is do they need them.. and that answer in today's environment is no.
 
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RE: Tentor: A400M No Competitors For The Next 10 Years

Thu Aug 15, 2013 4:23 am

Quoting Beta (Reply 58):
t would be very tough, if not political suicide, for a congressman to go back to his district to tell voters: by the way, we closed down the Boeing line, and now we are going to buy that European Airbus kits.

Not sure that's the situation we're considering. A short while after the C-17 line closes, it can't be economically resurrected, just like the 757 line. Right now we know Boeing is ordering long lead time parts on its own dime. Some say this is because they know they have export orders, other say it's because they are hoping for export orders. This means the line will be open for orders through 2014. What happens if none materialize no one knows, but a year or two after no orders materialize the line will be as dead as the 757 is now.

My feeling is that the US will keep fixing what it has till replacement becomes a priority, and then buy something US made again, ala KC-46A. The transition may be ugly, but it won't be the first time the transition is ugly...

Quoting redflyer (Reply 60):
If that is the sole criteria that is to be used then many programs in the modern era, starting with the F-14 and every major aircraft since, should have been cancelled.

Yet A-12 and VH-71 were cancelled. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nunn%E2%80%93McCurdy_Amendment has raised the heat. VH-71 survived one Nunn-McCurdy hearing but not a second.
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kanban
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RE: Tentor: A400M No Competitors For The Next 10 Years

Thu Aug 15, 2013 4:33 pm

Quoting Revelation (Reply 62):
Right now we know Boeing is ordering long lead time parts on its own dime.

Before the real estate bust, the property was worth more to Boeings bottom line than continuing low rate production.. I think the long lead materials buy not only covers possible foreign orders, but allows the property market to recover. When the line shuts down, the property will be sold.

Different than the 757 case, I think Boeing will contract with the Air Force to retain and maintain the tooling (which is government owned) for another 20 years in case reopening the line elsewhere is deemed necessary. The 757 tooling was Boeing owned and since they had no plans to further market the plane, all was scrapped except those items needed for spare parts manufacture.
 
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RE: Tentor: A400M No Competitors For The Next 10 Years

Mon Aug 19, 2013 10:50 am

Rafael Tentor, Airbus Military's senior vice president program dreams or sees?

http://www.aviationweek.com/Blogs...no-competition-for-400m-even-in-the-us
 
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RE: Tentor: A400M No Competitors For The Next 10 Years

Mon Aug 19, 2013 12:11 pm

I found the following bits interesting:

Quote:

Ian Elliott, head of defense capability marketing, undertook the interesting exercise of imagining that the French Air Force -- which will receive the first A400M in June -- had already been able to use it in the on-going operation in Mali. He said it would have enabled outsize and heavy equipment to be delivered from France directly to Northern Mali unpaved airstrips; it would have given France independence from reliance on allies to provide airlift; and would have been safer as it avoided the need for the highly vulnerable ground convoys set up to get the equipment from a port in Senegal or the paved airstrip at Bamako (Mali's capital) to the point of need in Northern Mali 900 kms away.

Anyone else find it ironic that Airbus Marketing is using as an example a military operation A400M should have participated in if Airbus hadn't screwed up the program so badly?

I'm not so sure his scenario would roll out that way even if A400Ms would have been available in numbers. Sure you "can" land an A400M on an unpaved runway in Northern Mali, but the question is would you risk the asset without being damn sure the airfield was under your control?
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RE: Tentor: A400M No Competitors For The Next 10 Years

Wed Aug 21, 2013 9:53 am

The A400M will feature operating costs similar to the C-130 while lifting more cargo, flying it faster and further.

It has the most advanced avionics package of any military transporter, it will feature lower maintenance costs trough high CFRP percentage and other technologies.

It has the most modern and efficient turboprops, excellent maneuvrability and flight characteristics.

A highly integrated and automated selfdefense system, similar to the system of the Typhoon. It can refuel jet's and choppers, once in full production.. NOT for a second Mr. Tentor is dreaming.

Rather the detractors dream this plane to be a failure.
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RE: Tentor: A400M No Competitors For The Next 10 Years

Thu Aug 22, 2013 12:44 am

Quoting autothrust (Reply 66):
The A400M will feature operating costs similar to the C-130 while lifting more cargo, flying it faster and further.

It has the most advanced avionics package of any military transporter, it will feature lower maintenance costs trough high CFRP percentage and other technologies.

It has the most modern and efficient turboprops, excellent maneuvrability and flight characteristics.

A highly integrated and automated selfdefense system, similar to the system of the Typhoon. It can refuel jet's and choppers, once in full production.. NOT for a second Mr. Tentor is dreaming.

Rather the detractors dream this plane to be a failure.

I don't think there is much criticism aimed at the technical capabilities or quality of the A400M. Rather the "detractors", as you term them, are pointing out that there is hardly any market for this aircraft.

Spain and Germany combined have reduced their requirements by 26 airframes. Before new orders are placed someone needs to buy those aircraft. I have great difficulty imaging who will buy those aircraft let alone who might place orders for even more beyond that.

This is not an issue regarding a flawed product. It is an issue of a product with without additional customers.
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autothrust
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RE: Tentor: A400M No Competitors For The Next 10 Years

Thu Aug 22, 2013 6:58 am

Quoting 11Bravo (Reply 67):
Spain and Germany combined have reduced their requirements by 26 airframes. Before new orders are placed someone needs to buy those aircraft.

The reason why Spain and Germany reduced the order has only to do with the financial crisis. Anyone who claims anything else is just plain wrong.

The production has barely begun, the first frame isn't even delivered and you guys claim it won't find any customers?

It's the same like with the A380 or 787 or Cseries. Only when the delays and technical problems are solved, output and availability is guaranteed customer will place orders.


But it's of course easier to dismiss and tag it as crap.
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RE: Tentor: A400M No Competitors For The Next 10 Years

Thu Aug 22, 2013 11:01 am

Quoting 11Bravo (Reply 67):
Before new orders are placed someone needs to buy those aircraft.

Why does someone need to buy those aircraft, many nations would rather deal with Airbus directly rather than buy brandnew secondhand transports from Germany or Spain.
 
jollo
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RE: Tentor: A400M No Competitors For The Next 10 Years

Thu Aug 22, 2013 2:13 pm

Quoting autothrust (Reply 68):
But it's of course easier to dismiss and tag it as crap.

Aw, c'mon, nobody dissed the a/c per se *in this thread*, at least not yet.

As for Aribus marketing, I do agree it sounds a bit lame. No competitors? The design was aimed squarely to the middle of the capability gap between the C-130 and the C-17: it would be a monumental fail if it had direct western competition before IOC.

Even the line about how France could have benefited from a full complement of A400Ms in Mali draws sounds funny: if the French didn't need the kit, they wouldn't have 50 on order. Truth is, A400M deliveries would probably have been too late to make a significant difference in Mali even by the original schedule (without the 2-year delay).
 
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RE: Tentor: A400M No Competitors For The Next 10 Years

Thu Aug 22, 2013 3:02 pm

Do they have a target customer list? China may be. India is looking to replace 55 x AN32s. But it will not before another decade. They seem to very happy with C130J/C17 mix. A400M maximum operational ceiling may be an issue for both India and China.

It appears those who wanted already ordered. How many countries in the world capable of waging a far away. Long range air lifters are only one piece of the equation. You got to have remote air bases or aircraft carriers.

Quoting autothrust (Reply 66):
The A400M will feature operating costs similar to the C-130 while lifting more cargo

Double the procurement cost of C-130/C-130J.
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kanban
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RE: Tentor: A400M No Competitors For The Next 10 Years

Thu Aug 22, 2013 4:10 pm

there is a long history of both countries and manufacturers designing and building to anticipated requirements that failed to develop or took longer to develop than anticipated and the mission disappeared. The A400M may be in that category and it may not if we were to look back 50 years from now. It's already doing better than the Breguet 760 series.

I suspect part of the arguments are about instant success versus long term success. Does it matter? Are we/you stockholders? They are committed to build so many units. If economics shut the line down sooner, that's a possibility, if no sales develop and the shut it down,that's a possibility; or if sales develop and more are manufactured.. it's going to happen because some countries feel it's the right size for their needs.. other countries may find it an odd duck and avoid it. To only see it in terms of 'I win/you lose' arguments is fruitless.
 
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RE: Tentor: A400M No Competitors For The Next 10 Years

Fri Aug 23, 2013 2:36 pm

If I were Tentor, I'd stick to something along the lines of:

Dear customer, when you buy our A400M instead of a C-130J you pay double the procurement price but you get:
* three times the cargo volume
* double the max payload
* double the range with the same payload
* 40% better operational ceiling
* 30% better cruise speed
* the same soft field take off distance with the same payload and fuel
* the same operational costs (that's what makes life cycle cost)
* a bunch of additional capabilities (tanker for fast jets and helos alike, advanced self-defence package, terrain following, etc.)
* and, if you can live with a limited strategic airlift capability, you might even avoid buying a few C-17s...

I'm not saying the A400M is selling itself just on merits, but for any air force looking for flexibility those should be valid arguments.
 
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RE: Tentor: A400M No Competitors For The Next 10 Years

Fri Aug 23, 2013 3:23 pm

I bet there are plenty of folks in the US Air Force that would LOVE to have 100 of these things, or more. And probably 250 Typhoons too.
 
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RE: Tentor: A400M No Competitors For The Next 10 Years

Fri Aug 23, 2013 4:26 pm

Quoting DTW2HYD (Reply 71):


It appears those who wanted already ordered.

I would bet on it that New Zealand will place an order for 4-5 A400's, the LEP program for the C130's only gave them a few additional years, the NZ Govt know they have to have a replacement on the way by 2018.
 
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RE: Tentor: A400M No Competitors For The Next 10 Years

Fri Aug 23, 2013 5:21 pm

Quoting jollo (Reply 73):

Is Airbus planning a civilian version of A400M? Sounds like a great candidate for developing world without infrastructure.

Quoting wingman (Reply 74):
I bet there are plenty of folks in the US Air Force that would LOVE to have 100 of these things

USAF is a great candidate, but any one of our congressmen can pull out the patriotic card killing the deal. There are 435 of them.
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RE: Tentor: A400M No Competitors For The Next 10 Years

Fri Aug 23, 2013 6:12 pm

Quoting wingman (Reply 74):
I bet there are plenty of folks in the US Air Force that would LOVE to have 100 of these things, or more. And probably 250 Typhoons too.

If given an option, those folks would most likely prefer 100 C-17s or a mix of 100 C-17s and C-130Js. And we'd probably take F-15SEs or F-22s over the Typhoon as long as we're dreaming.  

I'm not trying to bash European products but the USAF made a good pick with the C-17.
 
mrg
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RE: Tentor: A400M No Competitors For The Next 10 Years

Sat Aug 24, 2013 2:59 pm

Quoting DTW2HYD (Reply 71):
Double the procurement cost of C-130/C-130J.

The Indians paid $1.1 Billion for their six-plane aquisition. $183 Million per plane
The Canadians- already c130 user- paid $1.4 Billion for 17 planes.
The Iraqis paid $1.5 Billion for their six-plane programme. $250 Million per plane. The next four cost $293 Million.

The Spanish budgeted roughly €5.5 Billion for 27 planes.
 
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RE: Tentor: A400M No Competitors For The Next 10 Years

Sat Aug 24, 2013 10:57 pm

Quoting jollo (Reply 73):
I'm not saying the A400M is selling itself just on merits, but for any air force looking for flexibility those should be valid arguments.
Quoting KiwiRob (Reply 75):
I would bet on it that New Zealand will place an order for 4-5 A400's,

Agree, for smaller nations who will only choose one aircraft for their transport fleet the A400 is a great choice. Saying that, a few CN-235s might also be useful for the smaller pacific islands.
 
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RE: Tentor: A400M No Competitors For The Next 10 Years

Sun Aug 25, 2013 6:01 am

Quoting cargotanker (Reply 77):

If given an option, those folks would most likely prefer 100 C-17s or a mix of 100 C-17s and C-130Js. And we'd probably take F-15SEs or F-22s over the Typhoon as long as we're dreaming.

I'm not trying to bash European products but the USAF made a good pick with the C-17.

Thing is, they are all superb Aircraft, It's interesting that in this era we have a surplus of incredibly capable tactical and strategic transports separated by such small margins:


C27, C130J, A400,C17 and the C5M.


They are all so capable in their own particular envelopes its hard to choose.



I'll take one each please..
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par13del
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RE: Tentor: A400M No Competitors For The Next 10 Years

Sun Aug 25, 2013 12:25 pm

Quoting Revelation (Reply 59):
But vulnerable / risky to use in wartime since you may not control the places the trains run and of course you can't easily change that.
Quoting Revelation (Reply 59):
Many of our a.net posters will point out that a major goal of A400M was to preserve European technical/manufacturing capabilities, thus you have the A400M, regardless of cost.

I am one of them, so since the a/c was not conceived with actual war in Europe as its defining features, moving vehicles around the EU by train in peacetime will certainely be cheaper.

The 777W was unmatched by Airbus as a large twin for a number of years, Airbus did just fine. We can agree that the A400M is in a league of its own, its the way it was designed, folks can go above for a short time while the C-17 is still in production or they can go lower with teh C-130, how large the fleets will be may come down to the OEM's and how many a/c they want to sell. The C-130 should be much chepaer than the A400M, but so far the prices appear to be closer than expected, if the OEM's believe folks have no where else to go they will charge a premium, so time will tell.
 
dtw2hyd
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RE: Tentor: A400M No Competitors For The Next 10 Years

Sun Aug 25, 2013 12:48 pm

Quoting mrg (Reply 78):
The Indians paid $1.1 Billion for their six-plane aquisition. $183 Million per plane

Agreed, but as part of this deal LM producing C130 center wing box in India. India always want ~30% content sourced within the country, just like Chinese want detailed drawings of every component.

I am sure A400M will be a contender when India replaces its aging 100 x AN32s.
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RE: Tentor: A400M No Competitors For The Next 10 Years

Sun Aug 25, 2013 2:22 pm

Quoting par13del (Reply 81):
I am one of them, so since the a/c was not conceived with actual war in Europe as its defining features, moving vehicles around the EU by train in peacetime will certainely be cheaper.

From what I've read, it was conceived with thoughts of the Balkans conflicts in mind. In that case it makes a lot of sense: emphasis on short field performance and FOD resistance as opposed to heavy lifting and range.
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kanban
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RE: Tentor: A400M No Competitors For The Next 10 Years

Sun Aug 25, 2013 4:54 pm

Quoting Max Q (Reply 80):
Thing is, they are all superb Aircraft, It's interesting that in this era we have a surplus of incredibly capable tactical and strategic transports separated by such small margins:


C27, C130J, A400,C17 and the C5M.


They are all so capable in their own particular envelopes its hard to choose.

Agreed, however in today's "win/lose" world there is no room for rational statements such as yours.
 
jollo
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RE: Tentor: A400M No Competitors For The Next 10 Years

Mon Aug 26, 2013 8:38 am

Quoting DTW2HYD (Reply 76):
Is Airbus planning a civilian version of A400M? Sounds like a great candidate for developing world without infrastructure.

Not that I know. However, the plane is already civilian-certified (bringing the engine's FADEC up to civilian certification documentation standards cost the program almost 1 year delay, big time screw-up but it's over and done with now), so a civilian version is possible. A bit of an overkill for a developing world nation, though: even stripped of all the military-specific features, the acquisition cost alone would buy a fair bit of infrastructure...

I think it'll be more likely to see a new two-engined civilian transport equipped with a TP400 variant.
 
Bogi
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RE: Tentor: A400M No Competitors For The Next 10 Years

Sat Aug 31, 2013 3:18 pm

Quote:
Airbus sees the A400M as a competitor to the Lockheed-Martin C-130J, which is somewhat smaller, and the larger Boeing C-17, which is more expensive to operate.
http://www.aviationweek.com/Blogs.as...e78645-824a-48ae-9c3c-e2e3d8062bd9
 
mrg
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RE: Tentor: A400M No Competitors For The Next 10 Years

Fri Sep 20, 2013 1:12 pm

I read with interest on defenseindustrydaily.com that the average flyaway unit cost of the C17 over the entire programme is $201 Million rising to a weapon system cost per unit of $267 million.
 
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kanban
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RE: Tentor: A400M No Competitors For The Next 10 Years

Fri Sep 20, 2013 4:30 pm

Quoting mrg (Reply 87):
I read with interest on defenseindustrydaily.com that the average flyaway unit cost of the C17 over the entire programme is $201 Million rising to a weapon system cost per unit of $267 million.

kind of a moot point now that the C-17 is going out of production..
 
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RE: Tentor: A400M No Competitors For The Next 10 Years

Fri Sep 20, 2013 9:36 pm

Quoting kanban (Reply 88):
kind of a moot point now that the C-17 is going out of production..

I suppose, but given that France is now considering dropping their A400M order from 50 to 35-40, I do not think Trentor will be in a mood to celebrate.

Ref: French Military Procurement Plan 2014-19 (by breiz Sep 20 2013 in Military Aviation & Space Flight)
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kanban
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RE: Tentor: A400M No Competitors For The Next 10 Years

Sat Sep 21, 2013 1:20 am

maybe the French should sell then as sweetheart deals to former colonies
 
mrg
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RE: Tentor: A400M No Competitors For The Next 10 Years

Mon Sep 23, 2013 7:35 pm

Quoting Revelation (Reply 89):
but given that France is now considering dropping their A400M order from 50 to 35-40, I do not think Trentor will be in a mood to celebrate.

You may be right  
 
bigjku
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RE: Tentor: A400M No Competitors For The Next 10 Years

Mon Sep 23, 2013 8:20 pm

Quoting kanban (Reply 90):
maybe the French should sell then as sweetheart deals to former colonies

It will be interesting to see what impact the various resold A400m's will have on the market. I don't think France can cut their order so much as they have to take their order then resell it (that is what Spain and Germany are doing). A bunch of for sale cheap A400m's out there could be good or bad on the export marketability of the program overall. I am not really sure.

On the one hand you could use it to spice interest in other deals. Kind of a buy 1 off the line get one already built model for a discounted price type thing.

On the other you could have Airbus being forced to compete with governments looking to unload assets at almost any cost simply to be rid of them.

Not really sure how that will play out in the end.
 
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RE: Tentor: A400M No Competitors For The Next 10 Years

Tue Sep 24, 2013 3:41 am

Quoting BigJKU (Reply 92):

It will be interesting to see what impact the various resold A400m's will have on the market. I don't think France can cut their order so much as they have to take their order then resell it (that is what Spain and Germany are doing). A bunch of for sale cheap A400m's out there could be good or bad on the export marketability of the program overall. I am not really sure.

I doubt they will be all that 'cheap'. The selling nations aren't going to want to lose tons of money on them: the whole point of not taking them up is to save money. I recall reading that Airbus would be marketing the white tail frames which helps Airbus retain some pricing power, but in return the white tail frames were to be sold before any more new builds. This lets Airbus do the sing and dance routine for as long as the frames being taken up are on the line, but after that point it all can turn to muck in a hurry if they don't find customers for not only the white tail frames but also new order frames to keep the line running too.

If not, Trentor may find himself with a bunch of white tells to sell yet no way to make any more frames, the very definition of a 'fire sale'...

Yes, the C-17 was a fiasco in its early days, but at least it had the benefit of USG knowing it had to replace the C-141s and knowing that once C-17 was sorted they had a way to lift a few M1 Abrams into places that can make others uncomfortable. Yes, I know that most M1s would go by sea or rail, but still, C-17 was/is a heck of a C-141 replacement, and the USAF will have 223 frames to run into mush and insist they all need to be replaced in 20 years time (good luck with that!).

And with regard to A400M having no competitor for the next 10 years, one wonders if the main worry should not be that, but perhaps it should be that one can't count on the A400M being available 10 years from now.
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RE: Tentor: A400M No Competitors For The Next 10 Years

Wed Sep 25, 2013 3:38 pm

Food for thought: did France perhaps do too good a job dealing with the Mali situation?

They pretty much proved that for a just cause they could get a lot of help from a lot of friends.

So with there own 35-40 and with DE and UK having sizeable fleets as well as UK having its C-17s one can move a lot of stuff, not to mention leasing commercial lift.
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blrsea
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RE: Tentor: A400M No Competitors For The Next 10 Years

Tue Oct 29, 2013 5:19 am

Quoting mrg (Reply 78):
The Indians paid $1.1 Billion for their six-plane aquisition. $183 Million per plane

The C130Js that India procured were the special forces version, not the base version. I believe the standard version is much cheaper compared to the the special forces version.

Quoting DTW2HYD (Reply 82):
I am sure A400M will be a contender when India replaces its aging 100 x AN32s.

For replacing AN-32s, India has signed an agreement with Russia to jointly develop and produce 20 tonnes category planes. But that work has been pushing better part of a decade now. If it fails, they might start looking around. Would be better to go in for more C130s as it would maintain commonality, and might be cheaper than A400s too.
 
neutronstar73
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RE: Tentor: A400M No Competitors For The Next 10 Years

Tue Nov 05, 2013 4:50 am

Quoting BigJKU (Reply 26):
The reality of the situation is that the vast majority of the time the A400M will land at the same place C-17's are landing.

How about ALL THE TIME? Remember with big loads you need some way to offload it. Getting to the APOD is one thing; getting your gear off and getting to the fight is another thing altogether. And no one will really want to risk a limited pool of A400Ms to being down for maintenance after landing on those unimproved strips.

Quoting wingman (Reply 74):
I bet there are plenty of folks in the US Air Force that would LOVE to have 100 of these things, or more. And probably 250 Typhoons too.

HAHAHA.....No. I think the Air Force would break its collective neck to be able to buy more F-15Es (if it were available) or C17s for the cash they'd shell out buying 100 A400Ms or 250 Typhoons. I mean, look at the scoreboard: no one is exactly clamoring for Typhoons right now, even though it is a good piece of gear.
 
mrg
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RE: Tentor: A400M No Competitors For The Next 10 Years

Wed Nov 06, 2013 5:37 am

Quoting NeutronStar73 (Reply 96):
Remember with big loads you need some way to offload it.

The vehicles that the A400M was designed to carry deploy themselves. APCs and wheeled armed vehicles can travel hundreds of kilometers. Tanks cannot, but then the A400M wasn't designed to transport MBTs.

Quoting NeutronStar73 (Reply 96):
more F-15Es (if it were available)or C17s

I seem to remember that some years ago Congress was effectively forcing the USAF to commit to further C17 that they basically didn't want.

Quoting NeutronStar73 (Reply 96):
And no one will really want to risk a limited pool of A400Ms to being down for maintenance after landing on those unimproved strips.

The A400M was designed to land on CBR6 strips. In the same way that you don't send a C130 or C160 to the depot after every tactical landing, you won't be sending an A400M to the depot either.
 
Bogi
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RE: Tentor: A400M No Competitors For The Next 10 Years

Wed Jan 08, 2014 2:37 pm

Continuous optimism:

Quote:
... a potential sale of the A400M tactical airlifter to the Pentagon. “We are beginning to deliver actual operational aircraft. I firmly believe that within a year or two years of watching that aircraft perform ... that is going to change the interest level and that is going to change the dynamic and debate” in the U.S., O’Keefe says. “We are going to find ourselves in demand.”

Sean O’Keefe, once the head of EADS North America (renamed Airbus Group), is stepping down from his post. Allan McArtor, chairman of Airbus Americas, will assume the role of CEO of Airbus Group in North America, with oversight of operations in the U.S., Canada and Latin and South America.
http://www.aviationweek.com/Article....l/awx_01_07_2014_p0-652340.xml&p=2
 
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RE: Tentor: A400M No Competitors For The Next 10 Years

Wed Jan 08, 2014 2:58 pm

Quoting Bogi (Reply 98):
Continuous optimism:

What do you expect from the retiring head of EADS North America? A statement saying that Boeing's ability to get the KC-46A business shows that Airbus has little chance of ever getting a major order from the US DoD? A statement saying that DoD's massive commitments like F-35 and its relatively young fleet of C-17s and C-130s means that it'll be decades before the DoD is interested in new tactical airlifters? That the DoD doesn't even have a notional program in place to investigate a need to add tactical airlifters, never mind a set of defined requirements that Airbus could bid on? That the DoD will be purchasing a new fleet of heavy bombers before it even considers replacement tactical airlifters? That EADS North America's biggest A400M customer is more likely to be Guatemala or El Salvador rather than the United States?

Sorry, but the US DoD is not a place for Airbus to be looking for A400M customers. Airbus is much better served spending their time looking for emerging customers in EMEA. A400M is up and flying and I'm sure will prove to be a good product but that has not very much to do with the US DoD ever purchasing any.

[Edited 2014-01-08 07:47:08]
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