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LAXintl
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Argentina To Lease Sukhoi Su-24s

Tue Dec 30, 2014 3:45 am

In a swap of beef and wheat for aircraft, Argentina and Russia have agreed on a deal that would see 12 Sukhoi Su-24 supersonic all-weather attack aircraft leased to Argentina.

Russia to Lease Bomber Jets to Argentina. Deal Spooks UK
http://russia-insider.com/en/2014/12/28/2166

=

Well if the Brits want to block Gripen purchase via Brazil, then I suppose Argentina will do well pursuing such opportunities with Russia instead.
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alberchico
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RE: Argentina To Lease Sukhoi Su-24s

Tue Dec 30, 2014 4:33 am

What do they need a ground attack aircraft like the SU-24 for ? The Su-27 or Mig-29 would have been a better suited aircraft for Argentina's needs.....
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L-188
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RE: Argentina To Lease Sukhoi Su-24s

Tue Dec 30, 2014 5:12 am

Quoting alberchico (Reply 1):
What do they need a ground attack aircraft like the SU-24 for ?

Its apparently got the legs to reach the Falklands. So theywould use them to take out British assets on the Falklands and the civilians on the island.

But it doesn't change the fact that is a forty year old design.
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ThePointblank
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RE: Argentina To Lease Sukhoi Su-24s

Tue Dec 30, 2014 5:49 am

Quoting L-188 (Reply 2):

But it doesn't change the fact that is a forty year old design.

One will wonder what condition the airframes will be in. The Russians have grounded the Su-24 fleet multiple times recently due to a variety of incidents, all surrounding the age of the airframes, along with many airframes retired due to age concerns. This is not an aircraft that has done well with age.
 
bunumuring
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RE: Argentina To Lease Sukhoi Su-24s

Tue Dec 30, 2014 8:53 am

How fast can the Brits recall some Harriers?

If Argentina is serious about the Falklands, the gap between a Harrier-less RAF/RN and the arrival of the F-35B is finite and the best possible time to attack...

Hopefully nothing will come of this. Maybe it is designed to put pressure on the British over the Gripen, somehow?

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ThePointblank
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RE: Argentina To Lease Sukhoi Su-24s

Tue Dec 30, 2014 9:28 am

Quoting bunumuring (Reply 4):
How fast can the Brits recall some Harriers?

If Argentina is serious about the Falklands, the gap between a Harrier-less RAF/RN and the arrival of the F-35B is finite and the best possible time to attack...

Biggest difference is that the UK is more prepared in the Falklands, as they do have an air strip that can handle fighters and large aircraft, plus a beefed up naval presence (at the time, the UK only had one icebreaker stationed in the Falklands, today the UK has an icebreaker, a patrol ship, plus a regular Royal Navy warship). The Argentinians are less well prepared, with their military in an extremely poor state of readiness (many Argentine Navy ships rarely sail due to lack of spare parts, weapons, and money to afford fuel and salaries). In times where there is a need to escalate the presence, the UK has the ability to send more fighters quickly to the islands.

Quoting bunumuring (Reply 4):

Hopefully nothing will come of this. Maybe it is designed to put pressure on the British over the Gripen, somehow?

Unlikely that a dozen Su-24's will change anything. No. 1435 Flight RAF will make sure of that.
 
spectre242
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RE: Argentina To Lease Sukhoi Su-24s

Tue Dec 30, 2014 5:26 pm

Quoting bunumuring (Reply 4):
How fast can the Brits recall some Harriers?

They can't. The remaining UK Harriers and their Pegasus engines were sold to the USMC to provide an extra source of spares for their own fleet.

Not that it matters really, air defence is what the permanently stationed four-ship Typhoon flight is there for. Besides, the UK Harrier GR9s were not very capable in air to air combat anyways, given a lack of radar.
 
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alberchico
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RE: Argentina To Lease Sukhoi Su-24s

Tue Dec 30, 2014 6:29 pm

this post on another military forum sums up the island's defenses:

"OK, I have to ask here, in your scenario, you have blatantly neglected the RN Frigate or Destroyer that patrols the waters around the Falklands and more importantly between Argentina and the Falklands, also the RN has the HMS Clyde permanently assigned ( at least until 2018) also capable of detecting any incoming Argentinian aircraft. the RN also may have at any one time a Trafalgar Class Nuclear Sub in the area as well... NOW any of such could detect an incoming Argentinian "raid", far further away than your assumed 50 km's out...leaving far more time for the Typhoons to scramble and then your SU - 24M2's fly into a kill zone and everyone gets splashed.....so WHY leave them out?

OR, another neglected feature is that the UK are smart enough to have placed Rapier 2000 AA systems on the island...how many?...not sure...Where?..don;t know....but I do know that the Rapier systems have been upgraded, and the newer 2000 series has the DAGGER Radar as well as the Blindfire and Optical trackers.....why did you neglect to mention that your incoming Argentinian SU-24M2's would also be facing AA missiles from said batteries?...they would in all likely hood also be fore warned of the approaching aircraft etc......again WHY?

And despite the fact that Argentina would like to imagine that their pilots are good and their equipment OK....reality is that they neither have SU - 24M2's NOR are their pilots in any way equal to the RAF. Any A2G Missiles that Argentina might actually possess would be old designs and likely would need to be fired from well inside the defended radius of the islands....again necessitating the fact that any Argentinian aircraft assigned to such a foolish mission would be splashed, likely at 100% casualty rate.

Sitting here prophesising about what a Plane could do without looking at factors such as the RN, the AA Missile defenses, linked communications and generally a technological superiority of at LEAST a decade or more is literally ridiculous.

Bottom line, Argentina will NEVER get a plane or ship or troops anywhere close to the Falklands again. The Islands are certainly not going to be "surprised" like they where in 1982. And the current state of the Argentinian Military on a whole is no where NEAR what it was during the Junta. The Navy is falling apart and rusting away, the Army is ill equipped and ill trained, and the Air Force?...well it essentially has not improved at all since the 1982 war.

Lets look at things realistically, or at least try to include realistic features in your scenarios.


Here is just another simplistic theory to add...lets say that your SU -24 M2 Squadron does make a run at the Falklands....between the RAF EF's and the AA Defense Missile batteries 5 - 6 of the SU-24's get shot down......with the attack on the Falklands, the UK would in all likelihood declare a state of war against Argentina fairly rapidly this time around, as it would be a premeditated and deliberate attack. SO , that said, Comms being what they are nowadays, the RN's Trafalgar Class sub sitting in the waters somewhere around Argentina get the flash to retaliate ...the Cruise Missiles go in, and in a matter of minutes the Argentinian Military capabilities start to take serious depletion, from a hidden sub, and they would have NO means of defending from it nor engaging it. So, said SU-24's may be able to return to their base only to get smashed in strikes against the airfield......so really, why are speculative scenarios played out without covering the bases?...

In NO way is Argentina ever going to win such a situation....the relations between Argentina and the US has declined substantially since the 1980's, NATO is far more tightly knit with all the conflicts etc that they are cooperatively engaged in.....In all honesty, the UK may not be alone in dealing with another attack the second time around.....did you consider that?.....perhaps a US carrier group in the area would be a possibility?...then how does it play out?....''
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mercure1
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RE: Argentina To Lease Sukhoi Su-24s

Tue Dec 30, 2014 9:04 pm

The logic is as follows:

The more money Argentina cost Britain to waste in defending the islands, the better.

This is not a military 1:1 match up, but an economic and practical one.
Argentina gains by simply making the cost of holding on the island rise for the UK. Whether it means deployment of more aircraft, ships, men etc... It well know the UK military budget is stretched very thin so pulling further at the strings is a political move.
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GDB
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RE: Argentina To Lease Sukhoi Su-24s

Tue Dec 30, 2014 11:39 pm

Quoting mercure1 (Reply 8):
The more money Argentina cost Britain to waste in defending the islands, the better.

This is not a military 1:1 match up, but an economic and practical one.
Argentina gains by simply making the cost of holding on the island rise for the UK. Whether it means deployment of more aircraft, ships, men etc... It well know the UK military budget is stretched very thin so pulling further at the strings is a political move.

That would be the logic of the Argentine government, as least the current one, given their record, economically, militarily, not a great track record.
While the UK is under budget strain, they have to do very little to enhance the Falklands, even if you discount the reality of the real military situation as outlined in the linked article above.
No problem, at little cost, to add more Typhoons, maybe if thought needed, deploy an E-3D, make sure the RN guardship is a Type 45 Destroyer - which has been done before - that on it's own, stationed where an attacking force would have to approach to hit strategic targets would likely disrupt the attack and take a toll of the attackers.

Whereas the other side has to regenerate their military from the bottom up.
Few serviceable warships, the one sub left useless, no amphibious transport any more, no modern fighters, an army that is way less able to deploy and fight compared to 1982.
So if Argentina wants to make a threat credible enough to cause extra spending for the UK, it's them who have to do the heavy financial and military lifting. And Argentina is in a way worse economic situation to try this.
 
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moo
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RE: Argentina To Lease Sukhoi Su-24s

Wed Dec 31, 2014 10:43 am

Quoting mercure1 (Reply 8):
This is not a military 1:1 match up, but an economic and practical one.
Argentina gains by simply making the cost of holding on the island rise for the UK. Whether it means deployment of more aircraft, ships, men etc... It well know the UK military budget is stretched very thin so pulling further at the strings is a political move.

We managed to sustain involvement in two wars, both of which in the end required us to purchase and operate fairly decently sized fleets of custom vehicles for over a decade - vehicles we wouldn't have purchased otherwise.

So we will continue to look after the Falkland Islands because its treated as a standard posting, so in effect everything we would do to beef up security of the Islands short of actually deploying a full expeditionary force is already budgeted for. We regularly detach Eurofighter flights to foreign locations, an extra 4 to the Falkland Islands would just be one of those regular detachments etc.

The only time it would actually cost real unbudgeted money would be if we had to actually protect against an actual invasion force, until then its money already budgeted.
 
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RE: Argentina To Lease Sukhoi Su-24s

Wed Dec 31, 2014 4:14 pm

Quoting LAXintl (Thread starter):

In a swap of beef and wheat for aircraft, Argentina and Russia have agreed on a deal that would see 12 Sukhoi Su-24 supersonic all-weather attack aircraft leased to Argentina.

Wasn't one of the first batches of ?Indonesian SU-30s paid for in shrimp back in the day?
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Ozair
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RE: Argentina To Lease Sukhoi Su-24s

Wed Dec 31, 2014 9:36 pm

Quoting mercure1 (Reply 8):
The logic is as follows:

There isn't much logic to the argument.

Argentina haven't operated any previous Russian aircraft and Russia aren't exactly known for their stellar post sale/lease customer service. Good luck to them integrating a completely different nationality and philosophy when it comes to military aviation, let alone an airframe that was always the poor cousin to the Tornado and F-111, both of which have left or are on the way out of service.

Quoting Spacepope (Reply 11):
Wasn't one of the first batches of ?Indonesian SU-30s paid for in shrimp back in the day?

Palm oil is the more common payment method for Indonesia.

the Indonesians only signed a letter of intent for eight additional jets, with part of the payment to be in commodities, mainly palm oil, the source said
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/sitema...ll-buy-48-fighter-jets/238840.html

Malaysia also paid for some of their MiG-29s with palm oil.

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/a...lm-oil-for-planes-deal/211994.html
 
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RE: Argentina To Lease Sukhoi Su-24s

Thu Jan 01, 2015 8:33 am

Quoting mercure1 (Reply 8):
The logic is as follows:

The more money Argentina cost Britain to waste in defending the islands, the better.

This is not a military 1:1 match up, but an economic and practical one.
Argentina gains by simply making the cost of holding on the island rise for the UK. Whether it means deployment of more aircraft, ships, men etc... It well know the UK military budget is stretched very thin so pulling further at the strings is a political move.

And you think it is not going to cost Argentina any $$$ in engaging in any conflict. Last time I checked Argentina effectively defaulted on their debt obligations so not sure they are exactly in a great position economically to deal in any "economic' warfare. Any such action would also likely attract some sanctions...
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tommy1808
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RE: Argentina To Lease Sukhoi Su-24s

Thu Jan 01, 2015 11:18 am

Quoting Ozair (Reply 12):
the poor cousin to the Tornado and F-111, both of which have left or are on the

The German Tornados have at least 11 more years in front of them and are currently significantly upgraded. A Su-24M2 also isn't bad at all in its niesche either.

But of course not even close enough to changing the balance of power down there.

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GDB
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RE: Argentina To Lease Sukhoi Su-24s

Thu Jan 01, 2015 1:36 pm

Quoting tommy1808 (Reply 14):
The German Tornados have at least 11 more years in front of them and are currently significantly upgraded. A Su-24M2 also isn't bad at all in its niesche either.

True, however the RAF fleet has been in almost constant operational deployments since 1990.
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L-188
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RE: Argentina To Lease Sukhoi Su-24s

Thu Jan 01, 2015 6:01 pm

Quoting GDB (Reply 9):
And Argentina is in a way worse economic situation to try this

True but it was economic and political considerations that gave them the bright idea to invade 32 years.....wait new year 33 years ago.

Quoting GDB (Reply 15):
Quoting tommy1808 (Reply 14):The German Tornados have at least 11 more years in front of them and are currently significantly upgraded. A Su-24M2 also isn't bad at all in its niesche either.
True, however the RAF fleet has been in almost constant operational deployments since 1990.
Gulf War 1 and the air policing aftermath, Kosovo, Gulf War 2, Afghanistan 2009-2014, Libya, Iraq - again.

True, more wear and tear on equipment but that is where operational experience comes from. The Argentinians really haven't seen action as far as I know since 1982. That and they are for the most part still running the same equipment they had back then.
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GDB
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RE: Argentina To Lease Sukhoi Su-24s

Fri Jan 02, 2015 6:49 am

Quoting L-188 (Reply 16):
True, more wear and tear on equipment but that is where operational experience comes from. The Argentinians really haven't seen action as far as I know since 1982. That and they are for the most part still running the same equipment they had back then.

Yes and they have far less of it than in 1982.
I bet flying hours per year between UK aircrews and Argentina are very different too.
Some time ago I read that their army has very low levels of ammo and other stockpiled material.
The navy puts to sea far less too so if follows the air force is probably in a similar situation.

I doubt this SU-24 deal will happen.
 
ThePointblank
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RE: Argentina To Lease Sukhoi Su-24s

Fri Jan 02, 2015 7:14 am

Quoting GDB (Reply 17):
Yes and they have far less of it than in 1982.
I bet flying hours per year between UK aircrews and Argentina are very different too.
Some time ago I read that their army has very low levels of ammo and other stockpiled material.
The navy puts to sea far less too so if follows the air force is probably in a similar situation.

I doubt this SU-24 deal will happen.

Basically, from what I've read, the Argentine military is essentially starved of funds. Their submarine fleet has spent all of 6 hours sailing under the water in a year, one destroyer has actually sunk in harbour while laid up, and the missiles and ammunition for their ships have all expired.
 
jumpjet
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RE: Argentina To Lease Sukhoi Su-24s

Sat Jan 03, 2015 11:02 am

Quoting ThePointblank (Reply 5):
Unlikely that a dozen Su-24's will change anything. No. 1435 Flight RAF will make sure of that.

To be terribly jingoistic and with more than a little sarcasm, so please forgive me, "come and have a go, if you think you're hard enough"!

              
 
L-188
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RE: Argentina To Lease Sukhoi Su-24s

Sat Jan 03, 2015 7:02 pm

Quoting ThePointblank (Reply 18):
one destroyer has actually sunk in harbour while laid up

Funny thing that was one of the two "Sheffield" destroyers that the British sold them in the late 70's before the war
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GDB
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RE: Argentina To Lease Sukhoi Su-24s

Sat Jan 03, 2015 7:17 pm

Quoting L-188 (Reply 20):
Funny thing that was one of the two "Sheffield" destroyers that the British sold them in the late 70's before the war

Very ironic, though the contract was signed and work well underway when Argentina did not have a military Junta running things.
Even so, late as 1981 the second ship was testing it's weapon systems, post completion, off the UK.

They may have helped, knowing the Sea Dart's engagement profile, the Argentine pilots but if it did, it seems only the naval A-4 aviators benefited.
The Air Force crews did not seem to, enough of their aircraft were brought down by it and perhaps more critically, caused them all to fly very low with all the problems of target identification, bomb fuzing, exposure to every other AA system and some collisions with the ground.
 
epten
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RE: Argentina To Lease Sukhoi Su-24s

Sun Jan 04, 2015 12:50 pm

Quoting alberchico (Reply 1):
Its apparently got the legs to reach the Falklands.

According to both English and Russian Wikipedia articles, Su-24 has a combat radius somewhere between 500 and 600 km, and that is with aux fuel tanks. Still, the distance between the closest paved runway and Port Stanley is more than 700 km. So, Su-24 would need at least one aerial refueling to reach it.

Air tanker is a big target, hard to miss.
 
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RE: Argentina To Lease Sukhoi Su-24s

Sun Jan 04, 2015 2:49 pm

Quoting epten (Reply 22):
According to both English and Russian Wikipedia articles, Su-24 has a combat radius somewhere between 500 and 600 km, and that is with aux fuel tanks. Still, the distance between the closest paved runway and Port Stanley is more than 700 km. So, Su-24 would need at least one aerial refueling to reach it.

Those figures are for low-level missions. If you fly at high levels, range increases considerably.
Exceptions confirm the rule.
 
rtfm
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RE: Argentina To Lease Sukhoi Su-24s

Sun Jan 04, 2015 4:05 pm

Quoting A342 (Reply 23):
If you fly at high levels, range increases considerably.

But just means that they will be detected earlier and shot down earlier..... A loaded Su24 is going to be no match for a Typhoon.
 
L-188
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RE: Argentina To Lease Sukhoi Su-24s

Mon Jan 05, 2015 2:00 am

Quoting RTFM (Reply 24):
Quoting A342 (Reply 23): If you fly at high levels, range increases considerably.

But just means that they will be detected earlier and shot down earlier..... A loaded Su24 is going to be no match for a Typhoon.

Well you still have a High-Low-High profile available.
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ThePointblank
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RE: Argentina To Lease Sukhoi Su-24s

Mon Jan 05, 2015 4:36 am

Quoting L-188 (Reply 25):

Well you still have a High-Low-High profile available.

Problem is that the British have significantly upgraded the defence of the Falklands, adding Rapier missile batteries and long range radar as well. Also, if tensions are especially high, they can deploy a Type 45 destroyer as well to enhance the air picture around the islands, and flights of E-3's flying from Ascension Island can provide additional air picture coverage.

And it's not like if any of the Su-24's survived all of that would have a airfield to fly back to; it is also very likely that the British would have either a Trafalgar class sub or an Astute in the area to launch an immediate retaliatory strike with Tomahawk missiles, followed up by Tornado's carrying Storm Shadow missiles from the UK, or flying from Ascension.
 
GDB
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RE: Argentina To Lease Sukhoi Su-24s

Mon Jan 05, 2015 6:53 am

Quoting ThePointblank (Reply 26):
Tornado's carrying Storm Shadow missiles from the UK, or flying from Ascension.

If they ever did buy an aircraft like the SU-24, by the time they are operational the Typhoons will also be carrying Storm Shadow.
 
jumpjet
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RE: Argentina To Lease Sukhoi Su-24s

Mon Jan 05, 2015 3:56 pm

As in 1982, there's no way that Argentina could do anything to the Falklands without action by special forces troops first. Any obvious air or sea threat would be rebuffed in the strongest terms by the UK. However, were submarine launched Buzos Tácticos to attack the airport at Mount Pleasant to disable the RAF Typhoons prior to any other form of attack, that could have a different outcome couldn't it?

However, again as in 1982, accurate intelligence beforehand would prevent any nasty surprises. Shame it was largely ignored back then.
 
GDB
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RE: Argentina To Lease Sukhoi Su-24s

Mon Jan 05, 2015 8:15 pm

Quoting jumpjet (Reply 28):
However, were submarine launched Buzos Tácticos to attack the airport at Mount Pleasant to disable the RAF Typhoons prior to any other form of attack, that could have a different outcome couldn't it?

They only have sub left. It's day at sea, or just submerged, were measured more in minutes last time it actually did any such thing at all.
It's effectively non operational.

I agree about the intel back then, it was not ignored in 1977 however.
 
bennett123
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RE: Argentina To Lease Sukhoi Su-24s

Tue Jan 06, 2015 12:19 am

Even if Mount Pleasant was hit by Special Forces, Cruise Missiles launched by the RN are still as serious option.
 
ThePointblank
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RE: Argentina To Lease Sukhoi Su-24s

Tue Jan 06, 2015 3:00 am

Quoting jumpjet (Reply 28):
As in 1982, there's no way that Argentina could do anything to the Falklands without action by special forces troops first. Any obvious air or sea threat would be rebuffed in the strongest terms by the UK. However, were submarine launched Buzos Tácticos to attack the airport at Mount Pleasant to disable the RAF Typhoons prior to any other form of attack, that could have a different outcome couldn't it?

The Typhoons are parked in hardened aircraft shelters, and there are close to 1,200 British Army personnel permanently stationed in the Falklands, plus a company from the Falklands Islands Defence Force. Any Argentine attack using a small number of special forces is a suicide attack for very little gain.
 
Pyrex
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RE: Argentina To Lease Sukhoi Su-24s

Tue Jan 06, 2015 7:02 am

Quoting LAXintl (Thread starter):
12 Sukhoi Su-24 supersonic all-weather attack aircraft leased to Argentina.

Leased, not sold? Uh oh... if I was the Russians I would make sure the Argentinians got comprehensive insurance coverage with a low deductible - something tells me those planes are coming back to the owner in lots of little boxes.

The logic of this potential move baffles me, but then again so does most things the Argentinian government does. Let's say that somehow they were able to recruit 12 pilots for what would undoubtedly be a suicide mission, and that after providing them with enough flight hours for training all 12 of the planes are somehow still serviceable. You launch your glorious incursion one fine morning only to have a couple of pilots chicken out a few minutes in and fake a technical problem to return to base, a la Italian Tornados. Another one develops actual technical problems and the pilot is forced to ditch onto the South Atlantic Ocean. A couple of hundred miles out, at least, (if not as soon as they took off from their air base) British forces would become aware of this and dispatch the QRA Typhoon, which would make at least 2 or 3 splashes, with the Rapier batteries and ship-borne systems taking out at least another 2 or 3. Now imagine that, by some miracle, 3 of the Su-24s actually managed to drop any ammunition on the Falkland Islands, and one of them actually managed to hit anything other than sheep (the same one that somehow managed to escape the wrath of the other Typhoons on its way out while low on fuel). By the time this one, solitary pilot finally manages to make it back on base, for what he no doubt believes will be a hero's welcome, a UK attack submarine has single-handedly sank in its harbor whatever is left of the entire Argentinean Navy, as a retaliation / preventative measure. What has Argentina gained militarily with this?
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Marcus
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RE: Argentina To Lease Sukhoi Su-24s

Tue Jan 06, 2015 4:36 pm

Quoting Pyrex (Reply 32):
What has Argentina gained militarily with this?

Lip service for internal consumption...
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Pyrex
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RE: Argentina To Lease Sukhoi Su-24s

Wed Jan 07, 2015 1:36 pm

Quoting Marcus (Reply 33):
Lip service for internal consumption...

But they can always use the drumbeat of the Falklands for that, no need to go and actually do something that stupid.
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Marcus
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RE: Argentina To Lease Sukhoi Su-24s

Wed Jan 07, 2015 9:15 pm

Quoting Pyrex (Reply 34):
But they can always use the drumbeat of the Falklands for that, no need to go and actually do something that stupid.

Agreed, but with these "new" weapons they can claim they are doing "something" about it, I'm not saying these planes will be used in combat or that they are the first stage of a bigger plan, it's all just mind games and photo ops for internal consumption, you see that alot all over Latin America.
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Ozair
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RE: Argentina To Lease Sukhoi Su-24s

Wed Jan 07, 2015 9:36 pm

Quoting tommy1808 (Reply 14):
The German Tornados have at least 11 more years in front of them and are currently significantly upgraded.

Without getting the thread off on a tangent the Tornado is not the pillar of modern attack aircraft, even after the current upgrade is completed.

Work conducted under the upgrade includes adding a Saab radar warning receiver below the forward fuselage, a digital moving map sourced from the Eurofighter Typhoon programme, a digital video and data recorder, and a Saturn radio.

A new display also enables the pilot to see imagery from the aircraft's targeting pod for the first time. Crucially, it also introduces the hardware and basic software for the Multifunctional Information Distribution System (MIDS)/Link 16 datalink.

http://www.flightglobal.com/news/art...-track-as-laser-jdam-tests-376386/

It is 2015 and the German Tornado only now has the ability to see imagery from a targeting pod, is having the monochrome displays in the rear seat replaced, gaining MIDS and a dual purpose 500lb bomb...

That is not significantly upgraded, that is bringing the airframe to a capability most other attack and multi-role aircraft have had since the late 90s.
 
tommy1808
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RE: Argentina To Lease Sukhoi Su-24s

Thu Jan 08, 2015 9:49 am

Quoting Ozair (Reply 36):
That is not significantly upgraded, that is bringing the airframe to a capability most other attack and multi-role aircraft have had since the late 90s.

The update program doesn´t end with ASSTA 3.0 and there where an ASSTA 1 and 2 too before that as well.
However, you are correct that it "just" brings up the planes to late 90s standards, but those didn´t improve by much air2ground wise and coming from 1980s technology i would consider that a significant update.

Quoting Ozair (Reply 36):

It is 2015 and the German Tornado only now has the ability to see imagery from a targeting pod,

Nah, they had that a long time. The pilot couldn´t see, the WSO obviously could since a targeting point was introduced. Embarrassingly late as it was.
That the radar remained the same for 40 years...... oh my.

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Nicoeddf
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RE: Argentina To Lease Sukhoi Su-24s

Thu Jan 08, 2015 12:13 pm

So, having read all the different scenarios on how and why Argentina could engage the Falklands again I can't help but wonder, if leasing of combat aircraft is more a sign of a "nothing will happen at all" scenario.

If Argentina really wanted to engage the Islands, with the known risk of the Sukhois being shot down, why wouldn't they buy the A/C right away? I can't imagine a scenario, where Russia would not want any provisions in the contract for financial compensation in the contract for a loss of the aircraft.

The only plausible scenario for me for no such provisions would be, if Russia intentionally made the deal to force the UK to strengthen the South Atlantic defense and with such action weakening the Europe presence...
...but that seems far fetched...
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moo
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RE: Argentina To Lease Sukhoi Su-24s

Thu Jan 08, 2015 12:25 pm

Quoting nicoeddf (Reply 38):
I can't imagine a scenario, where Russia would not want any provisions in the contract for financial compensation in the contract for a loss of the aircraft.

Buy == pay a lot now, no pay no aircraft.

Lease == pay a little now, promise to pay a lot later if aircraft are lost, default on promises when asked to deliver on them.

Just because Russia wants compensation for any loss or damage doesn't mean Argentina would actually pay.
 
Nicoeddf
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RE: Argentina To Lease Sukhoi Su-24s

Thu Jan 08, 2015 1:52 pm

Quoting moo (Reply 39):
Buy == pay a lot now, no pay no aircraft.

Lease == pay a little now, promise to pay a lot later if aircraft are lost, default on promises when asked to deliver on them.

Yeah, well, thanks, I understand the basic concept of buying vs. leasing!  
Quoting moo (Reply 39):

Just because Russia wants compensation for any loss or damage doesn't mean Argentina would actually pay.

So, what you are saying is: Argentina is risking not only war with the UK and its allies but also at the same time angering the block leader of the countries which is not pro-western aka UK and its allies?

Doesn't sound very plausible for me, given we are talking 12 relatively cheap, relatively old tech aircraft with little residual value.

Despite all the claims of Argentina being broken, we are still talking billions of USD in state budget - no problem to outright buy those aircraft if need be.
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moo
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RE: Argentina To Lease Sukhoi Su-24s

Thu Jan 08, 2015 2:34 pm

Quoting nicoeddf (Reply 40):
Yeah, well, thanks, I understand the basic concept of buying vs. leasing!

The point of that was rather the "promises are made to be broken" aspect. Promises aren't hard currency...

Quoting nicoeddf (Reply 40):
So, what you are saying is: Argentina is risking not only war with the UK and its allies but also at the same time angering the block leader of the countries which is not pro-western aka UK and its allies?

I don't think its as well thought out as that, more "what happens, happens - but at least we have something to wave around now".

Quoting nicoeddf (Reply 40):
Despite all the claims of Argentina being broken, we are still talking billions of USD in state budget - no problem to outright buy those aircraft if need be.

Why spend the money if you can get them on the never-never.
 
bennett123
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RE: Argentina To Lease Sukhoi Su-24s

Thu Jan 08, 2015 2:55 pm

Given that these aircraft are over 20 years old, Russia is unlikely to be too upset about there loss.

It is not clear if these aircraft are currently active, or being taken from storage.
 
Nicoeddf
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RE: Argentina To Lease Sukhoi Su-24s

Thu Jan 08, 2015 3:38 pm

Quoting moo (Reply 41):
I don't think its as well thought out as that, more "what happens, happens - but at least we have something to wave around now".

I hear what you are saying - but I don't buy the "Argentina is stupid" theory either. They won't buy/lease/acquire combat aircraft on the basis of what happens, happens.

Quoting moo (Reply 41):
Why spend the money if you can get them on the never-never.
Quoting bennett123 (Reply 42):
Given that these aircraft are over 20 years old, Russia is unlikely to be too upset about there loss.

Why supply the aircraft to Argentina in the first place?
There is always a reason for things - sensible reasons or not. Russia is not supplying aircraft, being from storage, worthless or anything else for no reason. And Argentina is not acquiring, whatever the terms be, for no reason.

So, Russia calculating the loss in, which won't be a big financial loss, I concur, must than have strategical reasons.

Or simply, General Ivan Randomowitsch and General Pedro de Casualmente are being best buddies since, like ever, and thats the basis for the deal!  
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moo
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RE: Argentina To Lease Sukhoi Su-24s

Thu Jan 08, 2015 4:18 pm

Quoting nicoeddf (Reply 43):
I hear what you are saying - but I don't buy the "Argentina is stupid" theory either. They won't buy/lease/acquire combat aircraft on the basis of what happens, happens.

They issued debt on that basis...
 
Nicoeddf
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RE: Argentina To Lease Sukhoi Su-24s

Thu Jan 08, 2015 4:27 pm

Quoting moo (Reply 44):
They issued debt on that basis...

No, they did not. Or is the same true for every other broken organization/country/institution?

Anyway, I feel we are at the end of a useful discussion here!
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moo
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RE: Argentina To Lease Sukhoi Su-24s

Thu Jan 08, 2015 4:49 pm

Quoting nicoeddf (Reply 45):
No, they did not.

We will have to agree to disagree on that point.

Quoting nicoeddf (Reply 45):
Or is the same true for every other broken organization/country/institution?

How many other broken organization/country/institution issue debt and then complain loudly about "vultures" when called to honour it?
 
Nicoeddf
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RE: Argentina To Lease Sukhoi Su-24s

Fri Jan 09, 2015 11:14 am

Quoting moo (Reply 46):
We will have to agree to disagree on that point.

Fair deal!

Quoting moo (Reply 46):
How many other broken organization/country/institution issue debt and then complain loudly about "vultures" when called to honour it?

Are you asking for a guess? Then my guess is thousands in all parts of the world.

Are you asking for proof? Then I am seriously too lazy to prove a point where simple common sense dictates, Argentina is surely not the first, the only, or even the last entitiy to complain about the terms of debts at payback time.

Aynway, pretty of topic, therefore...

Quoting nicoeddf (Reply 45):
Anyway, I feel we are at the end of a useful discussion here!

Have a safe & peaceful day.
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SYDSpotter
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RE: Argentina To Lease Sukhoi Su-24s

Fri Jan 09, 2015 12:29 pm

Quoting nicoeddf (Reply 47):
Are you asking for proof? Then I am seriously too lazy to prove a point where simple common sense dictates, Argentina is surely not the first, the only, or even the last entitiy to complain about the terms of debts at payback time.

In this case Argentina hasn't just complained, it has effectively defaulted on its debt obligations. In the commercial world, one can complain all they want, at the end of the day, either you pay or face the consequences. There is big difference between complaining and defaulting.

If a company defaults on it's debts, worst case scenario is it gets wound up/liquidated; employees lose their jobs/benefits, creditors/lenders lose money and shareholders lose their equity.

If a country defaults, the economy goes bust, the country has to cut spending, millions of citizens suffer the impacts of austerity. If the company then wishes to borrow in the future, you can bet lenders are going to demand some pretty high % rates --> higher interest payments --> less money for the government to spend (the vicious cycle continues).

In this case, Argentina has decided to 'lease' some attack aircraft paying using agricultural goods which it could've otherwise been sold on the market and earned some cash (maybe pay off some debt, pay off some interest, social welfare....). If they 'leased' some "fighters" one could understand it's motives (air defence), but attack aircraft? Unfortunately the President is simply brewing up war rhetoric/nationalism to distract the population from the real issues, the economy!
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Nicoeddf
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RE: Argentina To Lease Sukhoi Su-24s

Fri Jan 09, 2015 1:35 pm

Quoting SYDSpotter (Reply 48):

In this case Argentina hasn't just complained, it has effectively defaulted on its debt obligations. In the commercial world, one can complain all they want, at the end of the day, either you pay or face the consequences. There is big difference between complaining and defaulting.

If a company defaults on it's debts, worst case scenario is it gets wound up/liquidated; employees lose their jobs/benefits, creditors/lenders lose money and shareholders lose their equity.

If a country defaults, the economy goes bust, the country has to cut spending, millions of citizens suffer the impacts of austerity. If the company then wishes to borrow in the future, you can bet lenders are going to demand some pretty high % rates --> higher interest payments --> less money for the government to spend (the vicious cycle continues).

In this case, Argentina has decided to 'lease' some attack aircraft paying using agricultural goods which it could've otherwise been sold on the market and earned some cash (maybe pay off some debt, pay off some interest, social welfare....).

I don't argue against that. Not at all. I am just saying that singleing out Argentina as the only one to ever default on debt or the only one of finding back doors of financing other stuff while at the same time defaulting on debt is hardly credible.
We are not talking morale - but political games.

Quoting SYDSpotter (Reply 48):
If they 'leased' some "fighters" one could understand it's motives (air defence), but attack aircraft?

"attack" aircraft is misleading. When the international coalition "defended" our freedom in various places of the world, they used CAS aircraft, which are "attack" aircraft by your definition. So acquiring military hardware (maybe apart from coastal guns) is always useable offensively and defensively.

Quoting SYDSpotter (Reply 48):
Unfortunately the President is simply brewing up war rhetoric/nationalism to distract the population from the real issues, the economy!

True - a very popular mean of obscuring domestic problems is drumming the war drum.

But you know what: That makes my point from the beginning, which was NOT defaulting on debt or not. Leasing combat aircraft is the cheapest way to drum the war drum and by that distracting your population. Going to war altogether? No, hardly likely.

Edited for a brain fart

[Edited 2015-01-09 05:36:22]
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