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TheSonntag
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RE: India's Struggle With Rafale Continues

Tue Mar 03, 2015 2:42 pm

Quoting BarfBag (Reply 149):
It would be nice if people who appreciate technology and what it takes to build technological capability show some regard for what was accomplished *technologically* here.

People do that in this forum. It is just that they come (rightfully so) to the conclusion that

1. LCA is not good enough for a new airplane in 2015.
2. LCA however was a v e r y important milestone for future projects.

Nothing more and nothing less. I am very sure the planes built on the LCA heritage will be capable.

Quoting BarfBag (Reply 147):
* relaxed stability airframe
* quad redundant digital FBW
* extremely high composite content

Well you could put FBW and composites on a ME-262 but it would still be a Me-262. I do not say LCA is a ME-262, of course not. But I still fail to see what it does better than the F-16.
 
ZeeZoo
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RE: India's Struggle With Rafale Continues

Tue Mar 03, 2015 4:30 pm

Quoting TheSonntag,reply=1501. LCA is not good enough for a new airplane in 2015.:

That is not fair and is completely made out of context. By the very same notion, if India were to purchase Typhoons or Rafale they wouldn't be "good enough buys in 2015" considering (a) the years required for induction/build up strength stretching into the 2020s, (b) the AMCA and (c) the fact that China/Pakistan will soon be operating J-20s/J-31s in significant numbers.

The Mk.1 version? Possibly not. The Mk.2 version is a significant improvement (hopefully the internal fuel is increased by a significant amount) and will be a very handy fighter, not to mention that the platform has scope for a Mk.3 version (I suspect this will be realised) if not at the very least, scope for further improvements/upgrades. Cheap to build, easy to produce, easy to maintain, quick to produce and Tejas II looks to be on paper a formidable fighter.

You cannot expect all fighter jets to be brought to the same standard as the F22. And what is lost here is that the focus wasn't to produce a Rafale/Eurofighter but a replacement for the MiG-21.
 
BarfBag
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RE: India's Struggle With Rafale Continues

Tue Mar 03, 2015 8:42 pm

Quoting TheSonntag (Reply 150):
1. LCA is not good enough for a new airplane in 2015.

By your argument you should throw away your Rafales and EF2Ks because the Raptor is better and you should just buy that. Heck, go back in time (a piece of logic used here often) and you can also ask for Airbus Industrie to be shut down. Why did you make your own planes ? Just buy Boeing/MDD/Lockheed. Were your first efforts better than the cutting edge of the time ? No. Did you stop because of that ? No. So why are you offering us that logic ?

The LCA is comparable at induction time to what the Rafale or Gripen was at induction time, airframe technology-wise, and in terms of basic armaments testing. Hot/high testing done. Coal soak done. High altitude testing done. Missile and gun tests done. Naval variant STO jump tests done, AR testing next. The basket of IOC coverage tests is comparable to that of those being compared. If something's missing, that's simply because there's no standard IOC set - it is what the customer AF says it is.

If you want to talk about 2015, here's what 2015 looks like: LCA Mk.1 IOC done, FOC done once Cobham finally ships the radome and IFR they should have sent months ago. The Rafale ? EF2K ? F16 ? F/A-18? I'm sure they're flying elsewhere, but none of them are in IAF service, and Rafale won't be in IAF service even if the deal is signed tomorrow - the F3Rs that are being negotiated won't be ready until 2017-18 . Their capabilities today are entirely moot because they're not either being inducted or in service today, and won't be, while the LCA is being inducted now.

Quoting ZeeZoo (Reply 151):
You cannot expect all fighter jets to be brought to the same standard as the F22. And what is lost here is that the focus wasn't to produce a Rafale/Eurofighter but a replacement for the MiG-21.

   The Rafale or EF2K's original requirement is what they built. The LCA's original requirement looks nothing like even Mk.1, much less Mk.2. A comparable sequence would be the EF2K consortium starting out to make an AlphaJet update and then having the design requirement morph into that of the Typhoon along the way.

The reason for this is that in 1990 no one had any confidence they could build the LCA to the claimed spec. Probably half the flight test personnel were unsure it would clear the runway on first flight, considering the Gripen's FBW accidents. The Swedes have been building planes for 70 years and if they couldn't get a digital FBW working, it wasn't looking good for us. But it worked.

The scope creep is a direct result of continuous first time project development realization that 'wow, we can actually do better than originally planned, so let's do it'. The Americans or Europeans have prior experience to tell them what they can aim for. We had no reference, never having built something like this before. We figured out along the way that we could aim higher, rather than put aside the idea (and perhaps lose the capability by not applying it), even at the cost of an elongated timeline.

There's a tradeoff involved in both: get the plane out quickly and the plane is out, but with the lost opportunity cost involved in trying to aim for a higher technological or capability standard. I'm a researcher, and I understand this tradeoff. It's a really hard one, where there's no 'right answer'. You can either choose to freeze technological standard and manufacture or keep aiming higher, for a given level of funding and project commitment. Delinking the two is not an answer in India - a research project will die on the vine unless it delivers. So they did both at once.
 
ZeeZoo
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RE: India's Struggle With Rafale Continues

Tue Mar 03, 2015 10:39 pm

It'll also be interesting to see the development of the Tejas too. The Mk.2 is quite a significant improvement/change from the Mk.1, I feel that there most likely will be a Mk.3 but that will very much depend on the development of the AMCA too. In terms of upgrades, will it not be new territory for HAL/DRDO/ADA?

I know the Su-30MKI upgrades are done with the help of the Russians, Mirage-2000 upgrade carried out by Dassault.
 
BarfBag
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RE: India's Struggle With Rafale Continues

Thu Mar 05, 2015 5:49 am

Quoting ZeeZoo (Reply 153):
It'll also be interesting to see the development of the Tejas too. The Mk.2 is quite a significant improvement/change from the Mk.1, I feel that there most likely will be a Mk.3 but that will very much depend on the development of the AMCA too. In terms of upgrades, will it not be new territory for HAL/DRDO/ADA?

Depends on what you mean by 'upgrades'. Despite the Mk.2. designation, it's a different plane just as far as airframe is concerned. It's 1m longer, has a smaller wingspan, and a bigger tail. The reason it's so much bigger is the realization that the design is capable of a lot more than the original intention of a Fishbed replacement, and it's now essentially an MRCA hedge in the form of Mk2.

The reason it's just called Mk.2. is that a new project will require fresh funding, which is politically hard to accomplish. Easier to just make a very different plane and call it the Mk.2. The ISRO did the same thing with GSLV Mk.3, which clearly is a VERY different rocket from the Mk.1/Mk.2.

As for upgrades, the current avionics are Indian. The Mk-1's Israeli EL/M2032 radar will be replaced with the Uttam AESA from DRDO's LRDE. It was prominently exhibited at Aero India a week ago. The Astra BVRAAM is due to be tested soon; it's already been tested off an MKI.
 
queb
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RE: India's Struggle With Rafale Continues

Thu Mar 05, 2015 1:29 pm

Eric Frappier, Dassault Aviation ceo, is very confident to close the deal before year end.

In french: http://www.usinenouvelle.com/editori...n-deuxieme-contrat-en-2015.N317537

Quote:
L'armée de l'air indienne est extrêmement satisfaite avec les définitions techniques. Nous avons finalisé nos accords industriels avec le grand partenaire industriel HAL qui doit fabriquer une grande partie des avions localement, assure le dirigeant. Nous avons un partage contractuel des tâches sur lequel nous nous sommes mis d'accord. Maintenant il nous faut finaliser le contrat avec le ministère indien de la défense.

Translation

Quote:
The Indian Air Force is extremely pleased with the technical definitions. We have finalized our industrial agreements with the largest industrial partner HAL, which must manufactured a large part of aircraft locally. We have a contractual sharing of tasks on which we agreed. Now we have to finalize the contract with the Indian Ministry of Defence.
 
TheSonntag
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RE: India's Struggle With Rafale Continues

Thu Mar 05, 2015 3:51 pm

Quoting BarfBag (Reply 154):

The reason it's just called Mk.2. is that a new project will require fresh funding, which is politically hard to accomplish. Easier to just make a very different plane and call it the Mk.2.

Comparable to Super Hornet vs Hornet, or will the changes be even bigger?
 
Ozair
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RE: India's Struggle With Rafale Continues

Thu Mar 05, 2015 7:55 pm

Quoting queb (Reply 155):
The Indian Air Force is extremely pleased with the technical definitions. We have finalized our industrial agreements with the largest industrial partner HAL, which must manufactured a large part of aircraft locally. We have a contractual sharing of tasks on which we agreed. Now we have to finalize the contract with the Indian Ministry of Defence.

We are now over 3 years from the Rafale being identified as the winner and it appears finally at the point for actual price negotiation. It will be interesting to see what happens with reports Dassault underbid or are now offering the F3R version opposed to the standard F3. How strict will the Indian MOD be to the contract specifications or will they accept a better version of the Rafale at potentially a higher price? Are France and Dassault using India to fund the F3R upgrade?
 
BarfBag
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RE: India's Struggle With Rafale Continues

Fri Mar 06, 2015 5:24 am

Quoting Ozair (Reply 157):
The Indian Air Force is extremely pleased with the technical definitions.

The IAF's opinion, at this point, are meaningless. The problem is that they're on the wrong side of a very concerted political push to indigenize defense procurement. Modi attended Aero India last week, and targeted 70% domestic defense procurement, and elimination of the imports of finished products, restricting imports only to components that comprise domestic products, in 5 years.

The Navy has been far better at building locally, and is getting substantial funds as a result. They're building one carrier, fixed the design of the second, and over the next 5 years will build or finish work on 5 P15A/B DDGs, 7 P17A FFGs, the Scorpenes, 6 SSNs and 3 SSBNs including the Arihant, which is undergoing sea trials. All those will keep Mazagoan Docks, Garden Reach Shipyards, Hindustan Shipyard and Cochin Shipyard all very busy. The P15Bs are being built startlingly fast - recent photos show two hulls halfway done, when it was assumed work on just one had barely begun.

It's fairly clear that the Defence Minister is not a huge fan of this deal. Modi himself obliquely criticized it by asserting domestic procurement over imports. His style is to indirectly convey a message and try to get people to fall in line. If they fail, they get removed unceremoniously. The DRDO's much decorated head was removed that way recently. There's some talk that the deal may be finalized in time for Modi's Paris visit next month, but I've no idea how credible that is.

Quoting Ozair (Reply 157):
We are now over 3 years from the Rafale being identified as the winner and it appears finally at the point for actual price negotiation.

It's not the price alone being negotiated. The French want to sell us F3Rs for a higher price. We want F3s, which they apparently no longer wish to sell. We don't want to pay more for F3Rs, and we want them to guarantee HALs work. Is that unreasonable ? Maybe, but when one side doesn't like the deal, it's one way to screw it over.

Quoting TheSonntag (Reply 156):
Comparable to Super Hornet vs Hornet, or will the changes be even bigger?

Hard to tell. Besides dimensions, not many details of the Mk.2 are out. It'll have the GE F414 and the Uttam AESA. There are also going to be different Mk2s for IAF and IN, which I think is bananas. The Navy version sounds better on paper, partly because the Navy has been much more heavily involved in its development lately.
 
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seahawk
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RE: India's Struggle With Rafale Continues

Fri Mar 06, 2015 2:05 pm

Quoting BarfBag (Reply 148):

No, we went through something far worse - more than a decade of economic sanctions, from the same worthies who now desperately want to sell us arms because all of a sudden they consider themselves 'friendly' (and remind us about our toilets when we decline them, of course, like one guy did above). DRDO was only removed from the US entities list in 2011. Heck, the German government placed sanctions on us. The LCA was thrice set back, in the late 1980s, and the early 1990s, and again in the late 1990s, due to coalition governments falling, compounded by western sanctions.

I think this is not worse when it comes to money. In fact the sanctions were a good reason to go with the LCA and the Kaveri engine.
 
BarfBag
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RE: India's Struggle With Rafale Continues

Fri Mar 06, 2015 6:05 pm

Quoting seahawk (Reply 159):
I think this is not worse when it comes to money. In fact the sanctions were a good reason to go with the LCA and the Kaveri engine.

They set us back a lot. Yes, they had the paradoxical affect of infuriating us and ensuring we ultimately got much further on our own much sooner, but that's primarily an unintended consequence.

The sanctions themselves are an ironic reflection of your original claim that German budget cuts were a significant factor effecting EF2K etc; on our part we never had enough funds to begin with, and the sanctions made it worse.

Further, those sanctions were a significant reason why the Americans and EF consortium lost the MRCA deal.
 
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seahawk
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RE: India's Struggle With Rafale Continues

Sat Mar 07, 2015 8:11 am

Quoting BarfBag (Reply 160):
They set us back a lot. Yes, they had the paradoxical affect of infuriating us and ensuring we ultimately got much further on our own much sooner, but that's primarily an unintended consequence.

The sanctions themselves are an ironic reflection of your original claim that German budget cuts were a significant factor effecting EF2K etc; on our part we never had enough funds to begin with, and the sanctions made it worse.

Further, those sanctions were a significant reason why the Americans and EF consortium lost the MRCA deal.

I was talking about delays to put the plane into service and to bring it up to full capabilities. EF program was in the air for 2-3 years until the final numbers for the partner nations were decided and all nations decided to go with a slow capability growth allowing them to spent less money on the program.

EF and Rafale were held back by money only, there were no technical problems. In fact if you wanted to, you could have a EF with conformal fuel tanks, thrust vectoring and AESA radar in 12 months. In 24 months you could get a serious RCS reduction as well. It is all designed already.
 
BarfBag
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RE: India's Struggle With Rafale Continues

Sat Mar 07, 2015 6:51 pm

Quoting seahawk (Reply 161):
I was talking about delays to put the plane into service and to bring it up to full capabilities.

It was delayed, one way or the other, eh. Whether it's lower budget by choice or force, the end result is the same - longer timelines. EF2K doesn't have an AESA yet. CAPTOR-E is due to be integrated only this year, and LCA's Uttam AESA is pretty much done too, for fielding on the Mk2. In that regard too, the LCA is making comparable timelines as the MRCA contenders.
 
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sturmovik
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RE: India's Struggle With Rafale Continues

Thu Apr 09, 2015 9:16 pm

http://nitinagokhale.blogspot.in/201...fale-deal-likely.html?spref=tw&m=1

Tweeted by livefist, a prominent defence blogger. Apparently India may buy 60 flyaway Rafales at lower price instead of 126 with ToT.
'What's it doing now?'
 
Max Q
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RE: India's Struggle With Rafale Continues

Fri Apr 10, 2015 3:00 am

Better 60 than none !
The best contribution to safety is a competent Pilot.


GGg
 
angad84
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RE: India's Struggle With Rafale Continues

Fri Apr 10, 2015 7:32 am

Quoting sturmovik (Reply 163):
Tweeted by livefist, a prominent defence blogger. Apparently India may buy 60 flyaway Rafales at lower price instead of 126 with ToT.

If this ends up being true, India will simply lose all credibility as far as procurement is concerned. They'd be making a mockery of their own processes, and of course, it would be a huge slap in the face for PM Modi's 'Make in India' programme (assuming the licence production clause is scrapped - as is likley for a paltry 60 aircraft).

I would personally be surprised if they actually approve this half-assed plan. It would be very out of character for a government that's been making some smart (if over-cautious) moves until now.

Cheers
Angad
 
Ozair
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RE: India's Struggle With Rafale Continues

Fri Apr 10, 2015 9:10 am

Quoting angad84 (Reply 165):
They'd be making a mockery of their own processes, and of course, it would be a huge slap in the face for PM Modi's 'Make in India' programme (assuming the licence production clause is scrapped - as is likley for a paltry 60 aircraft).

Agree, it would be opposite to what both Modi and the Defence Minister have been saying since the election. 60 is not enough for India to replace falling squadron numbers nor is it enough of a fleet size to gain real economies of scale. Would we see additional Tegas and Su-30MKI orders to make up the numbers? About the only country this does help is France who can continue to manufacture Rafales for a couple more years.

If this does happen, it shouldn't affect Egypt's order but would have ramifications for both Qatar and Malaysia who are actively looking at the jet. India and Egypt would consume most of the low production rate Rafale is at (12 a year I think) probably preventing additional deliveries in the next 3-4 years. Malaysia and Qatar between them could order 36-48 jets.
 
angad84
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RE: India's Struggle With Rafale Continues

Fri Apr 10, 2015 1:41 pm

Quoting angad84 (Reply 165):
I would personally be surprised if they actually approve this half-assed plan. It would be very out of character for a government that's been making some smart (if over-cautious) moves until now.

Happy to eat crow. Word on the street is that a 60-odd aircraft deal (G2G) is indeed happening. No word on offsets/licence production. Or the contentious liability clause. Or on whether HAL is to be the India producer or if that's changed now that the tender is being bypassed.

I'm dealing with some family stuff, so I haven't been able to spend any time in South Block over the last few days. Getting info by text/tweets/calls. Not ideal.

Links:

http://twitter.com/livefist/status/586494841539862528

http://twitter.com/manupubby/status/586484811318988801

Both are reliable, neither is known to stick his neck out for a dodgy story. It's 1900 IST, I guess we'll know for sure in 2-3 hours. Whatever happens, India gets the short end of the stick, but they DESERVE it. From the IAF downward, they've made a hames of this whole affair.

Cheers
Anga
 
dtw2hyd
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RE: India's Struggle With Rafale Continues

Fri Apr 10, 2015 1:57 pm

I guess India trying to keep both France and Russia happy.
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angad84
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RE: India's Struggle With Rafale Continues

Fri Apr 10, 2015 2:02 pm

Quoting dtw2hyd (Reply 168):
I guess India trying to keep both France and Russia happy.

... and f**k themselves, which is quite typical really.

Cheers
Angad
 
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WingsFan
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RE: India's Struggle With Rafale Continues

Fri Apr 10, 2015 3:22 pm

Wan't ToT the whole point of the lengthy procurement process? If ToT is out of the picture, is Rafale still the better option among all the airplanes that initially competed ? Or have the French managed to navigate the process to essentially do a very successful 'bait and switch' to land this contract that might have gone to someone else?
 
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sturmovik
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RE: India's Struggle With Rafale Continues

Fri Apr 10, 2015 4:11 pm

Quoting WingsFan (Reply 170):
Or have the French managed to navigate the process to essentially do a very successful 'bait and switch' to land this contract that might have gone to someone else?

I wondered about that, too.. Would the EF consortium do anything?
'What's it doing now?'
 
queb
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RE: India's Struggle With Rafale Continues

Fri Apr 10, 2015 5:10 pm

it's 36

 
dtw2hyd
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RE: India's Struggle With Rafale Continues

Fri Apr 10, 2015 5:44 pm

Quoting queb (Reply 172):
it's 36

Unless India want to use these just for airshows, what is the plan here? May be ToT is still cooking.

HAL and French are perfect partners. One is outright lazy and one won't answer "emergency" cell phone after business hours. With the time difference between two countries, at best they have to work couple of hours a day.

I don't see any issue here.

[Edited 2015-04-10 10:45:28]
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sturmovik
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RE: India's Struggle With Rafale Continues

Fri Apr 10, 2015 5:52 pm

Apparently the MMRCA negotiations are separate from this deal (at least according to what I see on twitter). Hopefully that is true. If 126 fighters weren't enough to fill the squadron shortfall, I fail to see what 36 alone can do. Unless this is an endgame to bury the whole sorry MMRCA tale and buy more Sukhois instead.
'What's it doing now?'
 
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WingsFan
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RE: India's Struggle With Rafale Continues

Fri Apr 10, 2015 6:48 pm

Quoting sturmovik (Reply 174):
Unless this is an endgame to bury the whole sorry MMRCA tale and buy more Sukhois instead.

That will be a PR fiasco even this government can't handle. I doubt the govt' will let it come to that. A lot more needs to be achieved just to save face on this issue. Let's wait and see.
 
dtw2hyd
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RE: India's Struggle With Rafale Continues

Fri Apr 10, 2015 7:11 pm

Quote from Indo-France Joint Statement

Quote:
Government of India conveyed to the Government of France that in view of the critical operational necessity for Multirole Combat Aircraft for Indian Air Force, Government of India would like to acquire [36] Rafale jets in fly-away condition as quickly as possible. The two leaders agreed to conclude an Inter-Governmental Agreement for supply of the aircraft on terms that would be better than conveyed by Dassault Aviation as part of a separate process underway; the delivery would be in time-frame that would be compatible with the operational requirement of IAF; and that the aircraft and associated systems and weapons would be delivered on the same configuration as had been tested and approved by Indian Air Force, and with a longer maintenance responsibility by France.


If I read between lines, India is buying older version of Rafale.

[Edited 2015-04-10 12:43:14]
All posts are just opinions.
 
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Devilfish
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RE: India's Struggle With Rafale Continues

Fri Apr 10, 2015 7:49 pm

Defense News report on the deal.....

http://www.defensenews.com/story/def...ale-fighters-from-france/25581985/

Quote:
"Paris — Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said on Friday he had asked France to supply his air force with 36 Rafale fighter jets, after years of wrangling over the deal.

'I asked the President (Francois Hollande) to supply us with 36 Rafale jet fighter planes, the ready-to-fly models,' Modi said at a joint news conference at the Elysee Palace.

'France has always been a reliable supplier for India from jet fighters to submarines,' said Modi.

'We want the terms and conditions to be negotiated on this issue, and our civil servants are going to debate these aspects in depth and press ahead with the negotiations,' added the Indian prime minister."



Anyone cares to hazard a guess on how long this "terms and conditions" negotiation would take?      

[Edited 2015-04-10 12:56:08]
"Everyone is entitled to my opinion." - Garfield
 
Max Q
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RE: India's Struggle With Rafale Continues

Fri Apr 10, 2015 11:18 pm

From 126 to 36, whats next ?  Wow!
The best contribution to safety is a competent Pilot.


GGg
 
queb
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RE: India's Struggle With Rafale Continues

Sat Apr 11, 2015 12:26 am

Quoting Max Q (Reply 178):
From 126 to 36, whats next ?

or
 
Max Q
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RE: India's Struggle With Rafale Continues

Sat Apr 11, 2015 5:29 am

Quoting queb (Reply 179):
or

Effectively, the total number of Rafales being negotiated now is 144:
36 (Flyaway) + 108 (Original number to be license-built by HAL.
— Livefist (@livefist) 10 Avril 2015


How do they get around the issue with Dassault's unwillingness to 'warranty' Indian built' copies ?



Seems insurmountable to me !
The best contribution to safety is a competent Pilot.


GGg
 
dtw2hyd
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RE: India's Struggle With Rafale Continues

Sat Apr 11, 2015 11:22 am

So if I understand correctly

36 x F2s in fly away condition delivered in two years
108 x F3s will be built by HAL.

At some point in (Indian Standard) time continuum 36 x F2 will be upgraded by someone with French government's guarantee.

In other news Pakistan and China issued a joint statement "for heaven sake order something".

Quoting Max Q (Reply 180):
How do they get around the issue with Dassault's unwillingness to 'warranty' Indian built' copies ?

Dassault's issue is more with schedule, now with 36 in fly away condition, that risk is mitigated.
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Devilfish
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RE: India's Struggle With Rafale Continues

Sat Apr 11, 2015 1:44 pm

Quoting dtw2hyd (Reply 181):
In other news Pakistan and China issued a joint statement "for heaven sake order something".

                 
"Everyone is entitled to my opinion." - Garfield
 
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Aesma
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RE: India's Struggle With Rafale Continues

Sat Apr 11, 2015 3:13 pm

Quoting dtw2hyd (Reply 181):
Dassault's issue is more with schedule, now with 36 in fly away condition, that risk is mitigated.

No I think the manufacturing guarantee is a big deal. There is also the ability to carry nuclear weapons that is contentious.

To me the deal for 36 Rafales is a show of commitment from India to the plane and to Dassault, after years and years of negotiations that led nowhere.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
dtw2hyd
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RE: India's Struggle With Rafale Continues

Sat Apr 11, 2015 7:51 pm

Quoting Aesma (Reply 183):
I think the manufacturing guarantee is a big deal

Yes, in terms of schedule. What India wants is expedited delivery which Dassault cannot guarantee with HAL. Now with 36 in fly-away condition, both Dassault and HAL have breathing room to setup and ramp up production in India. In this scenario India gets the hardware and Dassault is not the hook, so it doesn't need to bump up the price.

Quoting Aesma (Reply 183):
There is also the ability to carry nuclear weapons that is contentious.

I have no idea whats India's position on this. If India wants and French doesn't offer, Russia is always there.

Just to give an example, US supposed get $28 Billion civil nuclear energy order from India. Every other country signed contracts with India, we are still waiting on India to deregulate. I see that Areva signed an MoU this week.

Like John Kerry said, India is a bride with many suitors.
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ThePointblank
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RE: India's Struggle With Rafale Continues

Sun Apr 12, 2015 4:47 am

In short, this purchase could mean the end of India's plans for FGFA. I don't see how they will have the money to procure the Rafale and the FGFA unless they push the FGFA back until at least 2025 before even accepting deliveries.

With the Russians stalling PAK FA development, FGFA would have no chance of entering service in 2020, just from a development stand point.

In short, if the Indians ditched the Rafale, the IAF becomes an almost all-Russian fleet, and the Indians are betting their entire future force structure on an aeroplane that is almost solely a paper proposal right now. If they stick with the Rafale, they get a known commodity that works right now, but they can forget about having an advanced stealth(y) fighter in the near future.
 
angad84
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RE: India's Struggle With Rafale Continues

Sun Apr 12, 2015 6:01 am

Quoting ThePointblank (Reply 185):
In short, if the Indians ditched the Rafale, the IAF becomes an almost all-Russian fleet, and the Indians are betting their entire future force structure on an aeroplane that is almost solely a paper proposal right now. If they stick with the Rafale, they get a known commodity that works right now, but they can forget about having an advanced stealth(y) fighter in the near future.

Aye, sounds about right.

Cheers
Angad
 
ZeeZoo
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RE: India's Struggle With Rafale Continues

Sun Apr 12, 2015 8:51 pm

India's economy is clearly rising and so too will its defence budget.
 
angad84
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RE: India's Struggle With Rafale Continues

Mon Apr 13, 2015 6:18 am

Quoting ZeeZoo (Reply 187):
India's economy is clearly rising and so too will its defence budget.

Not likely. Or not in any way that would have substantial impact. The GDP may finally be going up again (growth rate has been positive but slowing for a few years) but in a nation of a billion people, the Government inevitably runs into the 'guns vs butter' issue.

Sure, the budget tends to be linked to GDP, so any upward trend in the latter bodes well for the former, but the allocation is so small (
 
ZeeZoo
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RE: India's Struggle With Rafale Continues

Mon Apr 13, 2015 12:05 pm

The difference here is that it's a BJP government, the "make in India" hype is still rising, India will learn further technology by proceeding with this project, the Su-30MKI will need to be replaced as India's prime fighter, money and time has already been invested, if they pass up on this opportunity then Russia will look elsewhere to sell technology/fighter ie. Pakistan and China, China and Pakistan will both field the J31 in the 2020s

The PAK FA/FGFA will happen. Will it be a success? I suspect so, with Russia's success with the Flanker series and India's success with upgrading the Su-30 to the MKI standard and now the Super-Sukhoi standard ALONG with incorporating French/Israeli systems means that the outlook for the FGFA is very good indeed. It is a matter of commitment and that the fighter's future engines will deliver.

Any "press reports" about dissatisfaction with the jet are pure bullsh*t, just the same with the EF/Rafale fiasco and people chatting utter turd and being paid off (Eurofighter and F35).
 
angad84
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RE: India's Struggle With Rafale Continues

Mon Apr 13, 2015 3:04 pm

Quoting ZeeZoo (Reply 189):
The difference here is that it's a BJP government, the "make in India" hype is still rising, India will learn further technology by proceeding with this project

Doesn't matter. MMRCA is dead. Defence Minister said so this evening. Guess I was equal parts right and wrong all along...

Quoting ZeeZoo (Reply 189):
if they pass up on this opportunity then Russia will look elsewhere to sell technology/fighter

Doesn't matter. I feel (hope?) that the days of throwing good money after bad are over under the new administration. The PAK-FA is not a great aircraft, the Indians don't want it as built, they want their own config, which the Russians seem unable or unwilling to deliver. After the debacle that MMRCA and Su-30MKI have been, the IAF and MoD are going to take their next steps very carefully indeed, and that means not happily accepting whatever bullshit the Russians are peddling.

It is widely known, sometimes on the record and sometimes off, that the MMRCA was just as much a hedge against the LCA turning out deficient as it was against the horrifically problematic Su-30MKI fleet. That is how a simple light fighter programme to replace hundreds of MiG-21s and MiG-27s morphed into this unwieldy behemoth that has finally been taken out behind the shed and shot.

Quoting ZeeZoo (Reply 189):
Any "press reports" about dissatisfaction with the jet are pure bullsh*t

I must respectfully disagree. I have personally heard enough (sadly, only off the record) to suggest that the T-50 is in serious trouble as a platform. And I'm not the guy anybody would bother paying to do a hit piece.

The Russian Air Force was complaining bitterly as far back as 2013 that the aircraft was a solution in search of a problem and not worth the effort and money. It has made it this far for prestige and political reasons, not because the Russian military has been driving it.

A Russian directly linked to the programme said that the cost of the programme and production does not come close to justifying the modest performance improvements. The compromises made for stealth have only pissed the RuAF brass off, and the avionics, sensor fusion and MMI are modest improvements at best. Apparently, the brain drain is real and they have huge problems with software. And the fractured and political nature of the Russian industrial houses (UAC, KRET etc) makes effective deployment of talent and resources impossible. The lack of a definitive powerplant at a point where 5 prototypes are flying and production numbers (admittedly laughable) are being discussed is just the icing on a very, very, broken cake.

Ok, so all this is potentially fixable. The problem is, like last time, the Russians want the Indians to (over)pay to bring the programme to the home stretch. I don't think that's going to fly anymore.

Cheers
Angad
 
ap305
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RE: India's Struggle With Rafale Continues

Mon Apr 13, 2015 3:41 pm

Today is a great day for our domestic defense development.... Parrikar seemingly making it clear that the tejas is the only way out for the IAF as far as the mig-21 replacement goes. The tejas mk1 and mk2 need to be bought in substantial numbers and the platform needs constant development if India is to avoid the technological drought that occurred with the end of the marut. The Rafale has it's place in the IAF but this cannot be at the expense of the lca.
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angad84
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RE: India's Struggle With Rafale Continues

Mon Apr 13, 2015 3:55 pm

The trouble with the LCA is ADA and HAL. Putting bureaucrats in charge was the biggest mistake, because instead of being result-oriented, they've turned it into a science project that doubles as a jobs programme (with the usual government job security to boot).

Every attempt by the IAF or MoD to put an Air Staff Officer at the apex of the LCA programme has been stonewalled, because nobody wants someone up top that can actually crack a whip.

Also, the Mk.II doesn't exist. They can talk all they want about F414 power and Uttam AESAs, but unless they address the fundamental flaws of the basic LCA design - weight, intake geometry, fineness ratio etc - the Mk.II will be as bad or perhaps even worse than the Mk.I

Cheers
Angad
 
ap305
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RE: India's Struggle With Rafale Continues

Mon Apr 13, 2015 4:11 pm

Quoting angad84 (Reply 192):
Every attempt by the IAF or MoD to put an Air Staff Officer at the apex of the LCA programme has been stonewalled, because nobody wants someone up top that can actually crack a whip.

Having an air staff officer at the helm is not the solution. No matter how highly we think of our defense staff, aircraft design and development is still about pure engineering competence and requires someone who understands concepts at the detail levels. I agree however that the IAF should have been on board in greater depth.

Quoting angad84 (Reply 192):
Also, the Mk.II doesn't exist. They can talk all they want about F414 power and Uttam AESAs, but unless they address the fundamental flaws of the basic LCA design - weight, intake geometry, fineness ratio etc - the Mk.II will be as bad or perhaps even worse than the Mk.I

There are no fundamental flaws known in the public domain apart from armchair aerospace engineering talk. The pilots who have flown it clearly state that it's on par with the mirage 2000 if not better(not able to find the exact reference for this now but it was in the public domain). Does it meet every single one of the ambitious air staff requirements? Probably not. This is the legacy of the marut program and the gap that followed its end. There is no easy way to aircraft design competence. Time and Money...... We have to be patient.

[Edited 2015-04-13 09:16:40]
Racing, competing, is in my blood. It's part of me, it's part of my life; I've been doing it all my life. And it stands up before anything else- Ayrton Senna
 
mffoda
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RE: India's Struggle With Rafale Continues

Mon Apr 13, 2015 5:21 pm

Here is another view on what the 36 a/c buy means the larger order...


"India order for two Rafale squadrons casts doubt on larger deal"


By Sanjeev Miglani and Frank Jack Daniel


NEW DELHI (Reuters) - Any future Indian purchase of Rafale jets will come through direct talks with the French government, the defense minister said on Monday, suggesting that commercial negotiations for a larger deal with Dassault Aviation have been shelved.

India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Friday announced a plan to buy 36 planes from Dassault through the government-to-government route, after three years of price negotiations for local assembly of the aircraft produced no results.

Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar said Modi's decision came after the commercial negotiation went into a "vortex" although he stopped short of saying the government had scrapped the negotiation for a contract with Dassault for 126 planes worth up to $20 billion.

"This had to be done to break the vortex," he said, adding that the preferred method was now to talk directly to the French government, rather than return to commercial negotiations.

"Instead of going through the RFP (Request For Proposal bidding process) where there is lot of confusion, chaos, it is now the situation that 36 will be procured ready to fly. What is to be done with the rest will have to be discussed," Parrikar said.

A decision to abandon commercial talks would mean the end for what had been touted as one of the world's biggest defense deals, and could give hope to rival manufacturers, experts said.

“The government has bought time now," said Muthumanickam Matheswaran, a former Air Marshal in the Indian Air Force, adding that future purchases "could be that aircraft, or it could be another aircraft.”

"That is an indication that the RFP that has been hanging for more than 3 years, is finished," said Matheswaran, who advises Hindustan Aeronautics.

Under the original plan, India's Air Force was to buy 126 Rafale fighters with 108 of them produced at a state-run Hindustan Aeronautics plant in Bengaluru as part of India's efforts to build a domestic military industrial base.

But the two sides could not agree on the terms.

The value of the deal was estimated to have grown to about $20 billion from an initial $12 billion in the meantime.



http://news.yahoo.com/india-says-fut...government-130733320--finance.html
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Revelation
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RE: India's Struggle With Rafale Continues

Mon Apr 13, 2015 5:25 pm

Interesting article: AvWeek: India Nears Deal For 36 Dassault Rafale Fighters - it'd be interesting to read what posters here think of it.

Quoting dtw2hyd (Reply 184):
What India wants is expedited delivery which Dassault cannot guarantee with HAL.

As per timeliness, the above link says:

Quote:

As much as this appears to be good news for both France and India, trouble awaits Modi back home. A national executive member of Modi’s party, Subramanian Swamy, has threatened to go to court if the government decides to buy the Rafale aircraft.

“If the prime minister for some other ‘compulsion’ decides to go ahead with the deal, I will have no option but to approach the court to get it set aside,” Swamy said.

so it might get tied up in court? Is that a serious possibility?

Quoting angad84 (Reply 190):
Doesn't matter. MMRCA is dead. Defence Minister said so this evening. Guess I was equal parts right and wrong all along...

Interesting. Any link to that kind of statement?

The AvWeek report says:

Quote:

DELHI—Three years after India opted to purchase the Dassault Aviation Rafale for its Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft (MMRCA) program in a deal that was to have all but 18 of 126 aircraft produced in India, the nation is now on the verge of finalizing the purchase of an additional 36 French-built Rafales.

In a statement issued April 10 during Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s state visit to Paris, the Indian premier said New Delhi would purchase 36 Rafale jets in fly-away condition “as quickly as possible,” though both the Indian and French governments said further negotiations are still underway.

Modi and French President Francois Hollande agreed to conclude an intergovernmental agreement to supply the 36 Rafale aircraft under a deal that is separate from a three-year-old negotiation between Paris and New Delhi over the sale of 126 Rafale fighters under the MMRCA tender, which calls for 108 of the combat jets to be produced by Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd. (HAL) in India.

The joint statement said delivery of the 36 Rafale aircraft would occur according to a timeframe compatible with operational requirements of the Indian air force (IAF), and that the aircraft and associated systems and weapons would be supplied in the same configuration as those already tested and approved by the IAF under the MMRCA tender, albeit “with a longer maintenance responsibility by France.”

... so it's being reported as being an "additional" order.
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Revelation
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RE: India's Struggle With Rafale Continues

Mon Apr 13, 2015 5:29 pm

Quoting mffoda (Reply 194):
Here is another view on what the 36 a/c buy means the larger order...

Your post was made right before mine, but it seems to address:

Quoting Revelation (Reply 195):
Any link to that kind of statement?

I also found:

http://www.livefistdefence.com/2015/...rce=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

but as per my post, this thing might be headed to court.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
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dtw2hyd
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RE: India's Struggle With Rafale Continues

Mon Apr 13, 2015 5:40 pm

I think the previous RFP process of MMRCA is dead. Rest 108 will be ordered thru a G2G order.
All posts are just opinions.
 
angad84
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RE: India's Struggle With Rafale Continues

Mon Apr 13, 2015 6:30 pm

Quoting ap305 (Reply 193):
Having an air staff officer at the helm is not the solution. No matter how highly we think of our defense staff, aircraft design and development is still about pure engineering competence and requires someone who understands concepts at the detail levels. I agree however that the IAF should have been on board in greater depth.

It shortens the decision chain and adds an element of actual management to the programme. I have a fairly low opinion of Air HQ in general, but it's still higher than my opinion of the w**kers at DRDO and HAL.

Quoting ap305 (Reply 193):
The pilots who have flown it clearly state that it's on par with the mirage 2000 if not better

Sure, and would they say otherwise? NOBODY in a position of actual knowledge will ever go the record in India with anything negative. Particularly a programme test pilot, who is basically a nobody in the grand scheme of things. Gp Capt Krishna is a lovely man (he's responsible for the quote you're trying to recall the source of) and he's genuinely fascinating to talk to. But at the end of the day, he's not going to bite the hand that feeds.

To be fair, because nobody worth listening ever talks in India there's a lot of crap information floating around. But apply a little common sense in sorting the wheat from the chaff and it's not too difficult to figure out what's what. In the case of the Mk.I to Mk.II evolution, it's mostly physics.

Quoting ap305 (Reply 193):
Does it meet every single one of the ambitious air staff requirements

No. It fails to meet some, and actually vastly exceeds others. The point is that lack of competent, result-oriented management led to this — they turned it into some sort of capability building laboratory experiment. Which is all right by itself, except they want men and women to take it into battle. That's incredibly callous.

Quoting ap305 (Reply 193):
There is no easy way to aircraft design competence

This is 100% true. India has a long way to go and there are thousands of reasons why. However, they were asked to build something like a JF-17 and ended up failing to deliver something worse than a Gripen. Which outcome would have been preferable?

Quoting mffoda (Reply 194):
“The government has bought time now," said Muthumanickam Matheswaran, a former Air Marshal in the Indian Air Force, adding that future purchases "could be that aircraft, or it could be another aircraft.”

Precisely. Hell, now that MMRCA is dead, they could scrap the whole Rafale buy.

"Sorry, MMRCA is gone and the terms for the 36 flyaways were simply untenable."

And then do a G2G deal for a more viable aircraft (Gripen? MiG-35? Whatever).

Quoting Revelation (Reply 195):
so it might get tied up in court? Is that a serious possibility?

No. Swamy is a lot of talk. Also, he's a BJP party member. Here's his latest on the issue -> http://twitter.com/Swamy39/status/587491719660183552

Note "sanction to prosecute" — effectively handing responsibility to the party president, who is far from likely to go ahead.

Quoting Revelation (Reply 195):
Interesting. Any link to that kind of statement?

Nothing formal yet, but per his words, it's over.

Quoting dtw2hyd (Reply 197):
I think the previous RFP process of MMRCA is dead.

Yes.

Quoting dtw2hyd (Reply 197):
Rest 108 will be ordered thru a G2G order.

Probably not. Parrikar didn't sound too upbeat about the whole order.

"But the minister did not specify how many additional Rafales would be acquired after the first 36 Rafales are inducted directly from France, which itself is likely to take well over two years. But the number now will certainly not be as much as 126 fighters, with Parrikar holding it would "financially be a very steep slope to climb"."

Source: http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/i...-scrapped/articleshow/46910444.cms

Again, while I'm completely speculating here, this whole thing could be a convenient way to wriggle out of buying any Rafales at all, because 36 is a stupidly small number and there is no way they will get favourable commercial terms or tech transfer arrangements for such a small number of initial flyaways. If the total purchase is piecemeal and/or less than 126 a/c then simple mathematics based on economies of scale would dictate that Dassault cannot offer better terms that they already are — and that is deadlocked. The only way to close this out quickly is to abandon offsets and 'Make in India,' but that would be political suicide.

Cheers
Angad
 
Pihero
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RE: India's Struggle With Rafale Continues

Mon Apr 13, 2015 7:49 pm

Quoting angad84 (Reply 198):
The only way to close this out quickly is to abandon offsets and 'Make in India,' but that would be political suicide.

But there is a big problem you failed to address : the urgency of replacing India's front line fighters.
IIRC, the Air Force has said that they needed 42 fighter squadrons fully operational in order to be able to meet their air defence needs.
AFAIK, the IAF only has 34 squadrons, 10 of them would be disbanded in the next five or six years - due to ultimate obsolescence - and most of them only have a 60 to 65% dispatch reliability.
It's well and dandy to promote national industry and know-how but it looks to me as a rather suicidal way of getting organized.

Two contracts signed with India in as many weeks ! WOW ! : A330 AEWs and Rafales ! WOW! WOW !

Problem is, from this side of the fence a lot of amusement : When has India ever been a reliable partner ?

We remember :
1:- A contract won by Eurocopters for 195 Fennecs........ cancelled
2:- 40 Alphajets, contract that was being discussed for....22 years...... cancelled
3;- A330MRTT won in 2004.... cancelled in 2007...revived in 2010.... still ongoing ?
4;- Development of the SR-SAM with... HAL.... discussions still going on after six years
5;- A330 AEW.... still pending but don't hold your breath
6;- Rafales .... market for 126 originating in 2011.... being discussed (especially Dassault guaranteeing quality    of Indian built... Option taken of 36 out of the 63 included in the talks.... now the deal is off and the contract for the French-built 36 isn't signed... (yet ? but don't hold your breath !)

I am sure there is a lot more.

This saga has already passed the point of obscene ridicule.

Gash it all .
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