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KarelXWB
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Russia To Quit ISS And Will Create New Station

Thu Feb 26, 2015 9:04 am

Moscow says it will extend participation in the International Space Station to 2024, after which it plans to disengage three modules from the Russian segment of the orbiting outpost and use them to develop a national space station in low Earth orbit.

Quote:
The plan, according to a Feb. 24 statement issued by space agency Roscosmos, is to develop a “Russian space base on the basis of separated ISS modules.” The new space station would be configured to incorporate Russia's multipurpose laboratory module, nodal module and scientific power module, leading to “a promising Russian space station that meets the challenges of providing secure access to space.”

Source
http://aviationweek.com/space/russia...quit-iss-2024-build-space-base-leo

Interesting development. Taking some outdated parts from the ISS to create your own space station. What could go wrong?

[Edited 2015-02-26 01:04:47]
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TheSonntag
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RE: Russia To Quit ISS And Will Create New Station

Thu Feb 26, 2015 9:14 am

I think the good news is that Russia is committed to the ISS until 2024.

IMHO, I still hope political tensions will ease by then and there will be future missions between Russia and Europe/US. But if not, I wonder which parts could still be useful. Zwezda and Zarya will be more then 24 years old by then.

Also the other modules are old by 2024. Not talking about financing at all.
 
MadameConcorde
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RE: Russia To Quit ISS And Will Create New Station

Thu Feb 26, 2015 10:28 am

Quoting TheSonntag (Reply 1):
But if not, I wonder which parts could still be useful. Zwezda and Zarya will be more then 24 years old by then.

Soyuz capsules are old equipment. They work very well and are extremely reliable.
There would be no human transport to the ISS without Soyuz. They will be used until end off 2017 that is if the SpaceX and Boeing capsules are proven 100% safe to fly humans by then.
There was a better way to fly it was called Concorde
 
TheSonntag
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RE: Russia To Quit ISS And Will Create New Station

Thu Feb 26, 2015 10:35 am

Quoting MadameConcorde (Reply 2):
Soyuz capsules are old equipment. They work very well and are extremely reliable.
There would be no human transport to the ISS without Soyuz. They will be used until end off 2017 that is if the SpaceX and Boeing capsules are proven 100% safe to fly humans by then.

That is all true, but my point is that if russia wants to use some ISS modules for a new station, they are using modules which were in space for more than 2 decades for a new station. So the point is not that Soyuz is old technology - it is, but the capsules are new builts. My point is that I have doubts that 20+ year old modules have lots of life left in space, even if they have learned a lot from MIR.
 
ZaphodHarkonnen
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RE: Russia To Quit ISS And Will Create New Station

Thu Feb 26, 2015 10:47 am

Quoting MadameConcorde (Reply 2):

The current Soyuz capsules are hardly the same model that flew decades ago. They're fairly up to date with only the basic structural design getting long in the tooth.

Quoting TheSonntag (Reply 3):

I'd be interested to see how much stress they've been put under. They've been under a nice constant 1 atm of pressure the whole time and probably have minimal to no corrosion issues. I could see the modules lasting more than long enough to provide the seed for a new Russian station. It's my understanding the US is entertaining the same idea, take the US modules and use them to start a US station.


As for the OP. I believe this now matches what the US has promised so unless something changes both countries will jointly maintain the ISS until 2024. Personally I hope things do change and the joint project continues.
 
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Aesma
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RE: Russia To Quit ISS And Will Create New Station

Thu Feb 26, 2015 6:45 pm

By then I hope we'll have the promised private space hotels and ISS will be disassembled !
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
zanl188
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RE: Russia To Quit ISS And Will Create New Station

Thu Feb 26, 2015 10:00 pm

Quoting ZaphodHarkonnen (Reply 4):

By 2024 I think ISSs problems will be systems related vs structural.

I'll be very surprised if Russia is able to reuse their modules.
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Stitch
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RE: Russia To Quit ISS And Will Create New Station

Thu Feb 26, 2015 10:26 pm

Quoting ZaphodHarkonnen (Reply 4):
It's my understanding the US is entertaining the same idea, take the US modules and use them to start a US station.

Maybe we can finally get Space Station Freedom, even if 40 years late (the original proposal was launched by President Reagan in 1984). 
 
Scruffer
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RE: Russia To Quit ISS And Will Create New Station

Thu Feb 26, 2015 10:58 pm

Quoting ZaphodHarkonnen (Reply 4):

Quoting MadameConcorde (Reply 2):

The current Soyuz capsules are hardly the same model that flew decades ago. They're fairly up to date with only the basic structural design getting long in the tooth.

Quoting TheSonntag (Reply 3):

I'd be interested to see how much stress they've been put under. They've been under a nice constant 1 atm of pressure the whole time and probably have minimal to no corrosion issues. I could see the modules lasting more than long enough to provide the seed for a new Russian station. It's my understanding the US is entertaining the same idea, take the US modules and use them to start a US station.


As for the OP. I believe this now matches what the US has promised so unless something changes both countries will jointly maintain the ISS until 2024. Personally I hope things do change and the joint project continues.

I am curious if the new US would abandon (deorbit) the old modules and send new equipment up at a better inclination. Afterall, the ISS is located at a much more favourable 51 degrees for Russia vs the ideal for the US at 28 degrees.

I think this will sour international co-operations going forwards between the US and Russian agencies.

Quoting MadameConcorde (Reply 2):
They will be used until end off 2017 that is if the SpaceX and Boeing capsules are proven 100% safe to fly humans by then.

That is not that far off. If the programs are sped up you might see incredible progress made in a very short amount of time.
 
nomadd22
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RE: Russia To Quit ISS And Will Create New Station

Fri Feb 27, 2015 9:40 am

Neither Boeing, SpaceX or any other capsule will ever be proven 100% safe. That's not possible.
Zarya doesn't belong to Russia. NASA owns it.
There are structural considerations, mostly with welding certifications, that makes 2028 a likely drop dead date for the western side of the station. They could probably push that further out if new analysis shows it's not a problem.
Russia will need to make and produce a decent power module or modules before they can start isolating their part of the station, and they haven't shown much sign of doing that yet.
The main thing the Russians need to do to start the new station is to get the Uzlovoy, or docking module launched to the ISS. That will be the basis for a separate Russian station no matter what old modules they reuse.
Anon
 
TheSonntag
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RE: Russia To Quit ISS And Will Create New Station

Fri Feb 27, 2015 11:18 am

Quoting Scruffer (Reply 8):
I am curious if the new US would abandon (deorbit) the old modules and send new equipment up at a better inclination

The question remains whether there will be a budget for a new US space station, since the SLS programme and probably Mars might be on the Agenda for the 2020s, 2030s.

IMHO, future cooperation between russia, Europe and the US remains a favourable option. Despite the tensions, isn't it quite positive to see how well the cooperation in space is going on?

My feeling is that we might see more Chinese-Russian joint projects in the future instead.
 
Scruffer
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RE: Russia To Quit ISS And Will Create New Station

Fri Feb 27, 2015 10:29 pm

Quoting TheSonntag (Reply 10):
The question remains whether there will be a budget for a new US space station, since the SLS programme and probably Mars might be on the Agenda for the 2020s, 2030s.

IMHO, future cooperation between russia, Europe and the US remains a favourable option. Despite the tensions, isn't it quite positive to see how well the cooperation in space is going on?

My feeling is that we might see more Chinese-Russian joint projects in the future instead.

Unless there is a major shift in the cost of access to space then I dont think Mars will ever be on the agenda. Not with the lack of money and political will. That goes for another station as well.

However, I am of the opinion that SpaceX and other commercial companies will bring down the cost to launch mass into space significantly over the next 5-10 years. I think SLS will have a very limited life.

Technology seems to follow a pattern of near stagnation then sudden jumps in capability. I am hoping we are nearing that point in space access.
 
aviationaware
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RE: Russia To Quit ISS And Will Create New Station

Sat Feb 28, 2015 12:27 am

The ISS has been a massive waste of money that could have been better spent elsewhere. No real breakthrough experiments have been performed up there, only vanity stuff.

I hope that after 2024, we will not build another Space Station but move on to more promising things beyond Low Earth Orbit.
 
TheSonntag
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RE: Russia To Quit ISS And Will Create New Station

Sat Feb 28, 2015 8:16 pm

Quoting AviationAware (Reply 12):
The ISS has been a massive waste of money that could have been better spent elsewhere. No real breakthrough experiments have been performed up there, only vanity stuff.

This can be debated, of course, but at least technology-wise this is certainly incorrect. In terms of long-term automation and self-reliance, there was a lot that could be learned from the ISS.

Of course, we can discuss whether this was technology for technologies sake, or whether this has any real practical purpose.

Apart from that, the political achievement to have a cooperation between so many different space nations is still remarkable.
 
jollo
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RE: Russia To Quit ISS And Will Create New Station

Mon Mar 02, 2015 2:54 pm

Quoting TheSonntag (Reply 13):
there was a lot that could be learned from the ISS

I agree: sooner or later, we need to learn how to live and work in space, and ISS does just that. Problem is, it does *only* that (have a look at ISS-related scientific papers: just a quick peek at the titles will confirm there's hardly anyting other than self-referential stuff). There's no question that, tactically, the money spent on ISS could have worked wonders for robotic exploration and would have yielded "sexier" results ("we lived to spend another day in LEO" headlines don't sell well), but strategically the truth is that we need *both* capabilities (human operators *and* robotic exploration), and globally there's not enough budget capacity to bring both along at a significant pace.

The operational word here is *globally*: it's clear (to me, at least) that space is too big for any one nation (and for any state/private dichotomy), and meaningful efforts *need* to be multi-national public/private joint-ventures. Here ISS played an essential role as the biggest international joint-venture ever: future joint-ventures on "serious" robotic exploration will undoubtly benefit from the experience. If we can't afford to do both, doing ISS first, then robotic exploration is fine with me.

It's really a pity that Russia is kicking itself out of space cooperation: Russian contributions have been essential, and would have been very useful in the future as well. Alas, western democracies cannot afford to joint-venture with anybody invading militarly neighbouring nations and murdering political opposers (and getting away with 80+% internal consent). Luckily, we are on the verge of getting over past dependence on Russian hardware and know-how, so a Russian exit wil not be the show stopper it would have been in the 90'.
 
TheSonntag
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RE: Russia To Quit ISS And Will Create New Station

Mon Mar 02, 2015 4:51 pm

Quoting jollo (Reply 14):

It's really a pity that Russia is kicking itself out of space cooperation: Russian contributions have been essential, and would have been very useful in the future as well.

True. Whatever one thinks about them, the russians were very reliable partners on the ISS, and continue to do so. If Freedom had been built with the US favourable orbit, it would have been dead once columbia was destroyed.

I still hope the russians one day get the government that they deserve.
 
aklrno
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RE: Russia To Quit ISS And Will Create New Station

Tue Mar 03, 2015 6:30 am

Quoting AviationAware (Reply 12):
The ISS has been a massive waste of money that could have been better spent elsewhere. No real breakthrough experiments have been performed up there, only vanity stuff.

I hope that after 2024, we will not build another Space Station but move on to more promising things beyond Low Earth Orbit.

That is exactly what I was going to say

Quoting jollo (Reply 14):
I agree: sooner or later, we need to learn how to live and work in space, and ISS does just that.

Yes, we learn to live and work in space so we can have people on ISS. We have ISS so we can learn to live and work in space. A nice circle of astronomical (    ) amount of wasted money. I was thinking of some other kind of circle, but it may be a violation of a.net usage policy.

We can get a lot more science done with robots. We have put how many rovers on mars? We have landed on a comet! China wants to send people to the moon. What will they do that a robotic spacecraft can't do? Put on a good show to tell the world that China plays in the big leagues. Europe, the US and Russia have already proven that. Let it go.
 
rwessel
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RE: Russia To Quit ISS And Will Create New Station

Tue Mar 03, 2015 11:37 am

Quoting aklrno (Reply 16):
We can get a lot more science done with robots. We have put how many rovers on mars? We have landed on a comet! China wants to send people to the moon. What will they do that a robotic spacecraft can't do? Put on a good show to tell the world that China plays in the big leagues. Europe, the US and Russia have already proven that. Let it

It's not that humans aren't going to be much better at the exploration/science task in many cases, it's just that they're so impossibly expensive to send that the payback relative to dollars spent ends up being terrible. It's even worse when we're spending all that money on something like ISS, whose mission is largely defined as having ISS. And the whole "learning to live and work in space thing" is only a modest extension of what we did on Skylab, and the Soviets/Russians on their seven space stations before ISS.
 
TheSonntag
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RE: Russia To Quit ISS And Will Create New Station

Tue Mar 03, 2015 12:50 pm

Fortunately, there IS a BEO-perspective now. I do not like the Asteroid mission, but right now, the SLS is funded, Orion is funded, so the hardware to leave LEO is on track and on schedule.

There is no funding for a mission, that is true. But once ISS is abandoned, there will be funds available.
 
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moo
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RE: Russia To Quit ISS And Will Create New Station

Tue Mar 03, 2015 3:14 pm

Quoting AviationAware (Reply 12):
I hope that after 2024, we will not build another Space Station but move on to more promising things beyond Low Earth Orbit.

I hope that the ISS has given us enough experience to be able to stop treating space stations as "proof of concepts" and instead build something to do a job - we need a permanent outstation in earth orbit, one which can handle twenty or thirty occupants at a minimum, and one which can act as a build station for a reusable outer planets shuttle bus.

In other words, we need to get past the Wright Flier stage and onto the 747 stage.
 
jollo
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RE: Russia To Quit ISS And Will Create New Station

Tue Mar 03, 2015 4:21 pm

Quoting aklrno (Reply 16):
Yes, we learn to live and work in space so we can have people on ISS. We have ISS so we can learn to live and work in space.

Exactly. Just like in school or university: you study and sweat and bleed money to ... spend another year in instruction! And when you're through, your diploma doesn't mean you know it all: just that you know enough to move on to real stuff .

Quoting aklrno (Reply 16):
We can get a lot more science done with robots.

Almost true: we can *afford* a lot more science done with robots. Good news is that robotic exploration is not only better than nothing, it's also pretty effective. But, as a race, we *also* need to learn how to effectively operate in space in person (although at a lot shorter range than robotic probes can reach). And we *really* need to learn how to pool resources and cooperate globally.

Quoting rwessel (Reply 17):
And the whole "learning to live and work in space thing" is only a modest extension of what we did on Skylab, and the Soviets/Russians on their seven space stations before ISS.

Aw, I don't think that's fair: yes, it's still the same game, but to a completely different level (in terms of reliability, durability, efficiency, operational capabilities, etc.). Perhaps more importantly, it's the biggest ever international joint venture, with a private sector share getting more and more significant. That's priceless in my opinion.
 
TheSonntag
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RE: Russia To Quit ISS And Will Create New Station

Tue Mar 03, 2015 4:38 pm

Quoting jollo (Reply 20):
Almost true: we can *afford* a lot more science done with robots

Indeed. If you look at how many kilometres Opportunity and MSL have made in 10 years/3 years, and compare it to the distance Apollo astronauts have covered in a few days, it is pretty clear that robots achieve remarkable results, but trained humans would certainly achieve much more. The robots are limited to what they were designed for on earth.

Finding and picking up orange soil on the moon is an example of what humans can achieve.

Judging ISS science by the time from 1998 to 2010 is probably not so fair, since construction wasn't finished then and the columbia accident severely hampered the ISS mission in the first years.

I think we shall wait till 2024 to get a critical acclaim of the science results of the ISS, compared to the overall cost. So far, it reminds me of the A380NEO discussion: The costs to build the ISS are sunk costs. Now where it is in orbit, lets use it till 2024.
 
jollo
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RE: Russia To Quit ISS And Will Create New Station

Tue Mar 03, 2015 9:50 pm

Quoting moo (Reply 19):
In other words, we need to get past the Wright Flier stage and onto the 747 stage.

I would happily settle for the DC-3 stage ... But even the DC-3s of the solar system (robotic or crewed) will be built in LEO, from materials mined and processed in space (except for the, let's say, 5% of mass representing the highest tech components, that will keep on being launched form the surface). That's why we need to learn how to live and *work* in space: exploration can be robotic, not so manufacturing. Why LEO? Because people working in space FALs will need to have (relatively) frequent breaks on the planet, and anywhere else would be too expensive.
 
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Francoflier
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RE: Russia To Quit ISS And Will Create New Station

Wed Mar 04, 2015 8:02 am

I doubt the ISS was going to get funding until much past 2024 anyway. The Russians are just starting to look at life post-ISS, as should all other partners.

There might be a political message in saying they will disengage the modules and recycle them into something Russo-Russian. Frankly, It's anybody's guess what state Russia will be in by 2024, especially if Putin stays in power, and he doesn't seem to want to let go.
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KarelXWB
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RE: Russia To Quit ISS And Will Create New Station

Thu Mar 05, 2015 8:47 am

Quoting moo (Reply 19):
we need a permanent outstation in earth orbit

Do we? I'm not so sure ... I'd be happy to understand why we really need a space station.
What we leave behind is not as important as how we've lived.
 
aviationaware
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RE: Russia To Quit ISS And Will Create New Station

Thu Mar 05, 2015 2:01 pm

Quoting moo (Reply 19):
we need a permanent outstation in earth orbit

For what?
My personal view is that those involved should move from generalist ideas such as 'Let's build a space station for international cooperation' to utility, as in get going on researching possibilities of creating gravity-esque forces in space, shield long range spacecraft from solar radiation and so on.

I would consider myself a futurist, and with all the fatalists out there I just don't think that will happen. Let's say a rotational device to research artificial gravity - all the technical difficulties aside, such as the immense size that device would need to be, I doubt we would see anyone want to try if there was a chance the astronauts involved would die.
There is a lack of risk taking mentality, especially where the funds are allocated, and that certainly wasn't such an issue for the last, terrestrial wave of exploration of Magellan and Columbus etc.

I am only a financial analyst and unfortunately lack the scientific knowledge to completely assess many of the developments in space, but from my amateur position as a space enthusiast it is a massive disappointment how the space programs basically came to a dead stop after the Apollo program. The Shuttle program was a failure of epic dimensions, it completely failed to do what it was supposed to do and (the gap between Apollo and STS aside) since it first flew, there has basically nothing been happening in space that would carry any significance in itself.
It's only recently that private entities, of which (but that again is personal opinion) I only consider SpaceX to have promising and potentially groundbreaking ideas and the guts and monetary support to execute on them, have begun to get back on track.

One more slightly negative indication on the economy until 2024 and I could even see all public space efforts being cut, that's how bad I think it is by now.
Space has always been excessively expensive and this is not a new phenomenon. The Apollo-program cost a fortune and even back then, there were significant protests against the use of tax payer money for it instead of helping the poor or spending it on other public budgets. Just back then, nobody cared and the pace of achievements made generated an opinion environment in which it wasn't too terribly hard to pass such spending, and we lost that.

Sorry, rant over. Don't even know if I stayed on topic but this had to get out of me.
 
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Francoflier
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RE: Russia To Quit ISS And Will Create New Station

Sat Mar 07, 2015 11:44 am

Quoting AviationAware (Reply 25):

I agree with your views, unfortunately...

There is simply no basic need for mankind to be in space yet, apart from launching communication or GPS satellites.
Scientific research is unfortunately under an ever-tightening budgeting belt, and until clear monetary value can be found up there, there will be little drive to fund space ventures other than whatever scientists can get from their government.

The Apollo program, while fantastic, was really little more than political chest-thumping. Nothing since has managed to create widespread interest.

The problem is that until there is a relatively cheap and safe way to get humans up there, there will be few to try commercial ventures, but we won't find a cheap and easy way to orbit unless we fund a lot more missions...
The space deadlock.

That's why I wish Space-X and other commercial ventures the best. The hope is that they might create the technology needed to jump start commercial ventures in space before they run out of government funds.
I'll do my own airline. With Blackjack. And hookers. In fact, forget the airline.
 
rwessel
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RE: Russia To Quit ISS And Will Create New Station

Sat Mar 07, 2015 8:49 pm

Quoting francoflier (Reply 26):
There is simply no basic need for mankind to be in space yet, apart from launching communication or GPS satellites.
Scientific research is unfortunately under an ever-tightening budgeting belt, and until clear monetary value can be found up there, there will be little drive to fund space ventures other than whatever scientists can get from their government.

And that's one of the reasons I so dislike ISS. That $100B came out of the already too small science budget. It's not that there are no science returns from the manned program, it's just that they're thin, and incredibly expensive.

I'm not opposed to manned spaceflight per-se, but if you're doing it for reasons of international cooperation or national pride, fund it out of the State Department or Vainglory budgets.
 
zanl188
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RE: Russia To Quit ISS And Will Create New Station

Sat Mar 07, 2015 11:05 pm

Quoting rwessel (Reply 27):
That $100B came out of the already too small science budget

lol. That makes it sound like there was $100B in the science budget to begin with..... not...
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