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FYODOR
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RE: Russian Jet Allegedly Shot Down In Turkey

Sat Nov 28, 2015 2:37 pm

Orthodox influence is strong indeed and increasing but I see not much conflicts. At least in my small village there are 4 Christian churches of 3 different confessions. I'd say generally the increasing of religion influence is the case for discussion especially in case of involvement to schools, attacks on science etc. I'm still on evolution theory side  

Russia is not easy place, could be complicated but we are part of Europe even if quite special one. I just happy you liked it and if you are next time here we could have beer or couple if the schedule will give us a chance  
 
WIederling
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RE: Russian Jet Allegedly Shot Down In Turkey

Sat Nov 28, 2015 3:40 pm

Quoting FYODOR (Reply 246):
Well I guess the problem is that you really hate Russia and Russians. Nothing new - you may have reasons for that. I've met many people form Europe with such approach but luckely I also saw a lot of opposite cases. Also in Sweden there I have a lot of friends and colleagues.

In my experience the most rabbid Russia haters never had any meaningful contact.
Earlier these people were commi haters with the same fervor ( surprising as those never had
substatial knowledge about what they hated either.)

After WWII quite a lot of Germans had a real fright over "Der Russe Kommt! Wir werden alle sterben".
Deep down they all knew that what they feared was Soviet _retaliation_ for the unspeakable evil
German troops had done on their march East and on their flight back into the West.

Thus I think "Haters" tell much more about themselves than they know about others.
Murphy is an optimist
 
MD11Engineer
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RE: Russian Jet Allegedly Shot Down In Turkey

Sat Nov 28, 2015 4:46 pm

Quoting WIederling (Reply 252):
In my experience the most rabbid Russia haters never had any meaningful contact.
Earlier these people were commi haters with the same fervor ( surprising as those never had
substatial knowledge about what they hated either.)

After WWII quite a lot of Germans had a real fright over "Der Russe Kommt! Wir werden alle sterben".
Deep down they all knew that what they feared was Soviet _retaliation_ for the unspeakable evil
German troops had done on their march East and on their flight back into the West.

Thus I think "Haters" tell much more about themselves than they know about others.

just look at the immigrant haters here in Germany. In which states is the highest concentration? In those with very few immigrants, like Saxony or Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. Those actually living and working e.g. next to Turkish neighbours or colleagues from abroad are much more relaxed (thisdoesn't mean that one has to tolerate real unconstitutional, sexist or racist behaviour though).

Jan
Je Suis Charlie et je suis Ahmet aussi
 
ThePointblank
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RE: Russian Jet Allegedly Shot Down In Turkey

Mon Nov 30, 2015 4:24 am

Quoting FYODOR (Reply 247):

Really? My experience in world politics tell me that there are two approaches to react on things you dislike: you have an ability to prevent something or you cannot. So let me suggest your 'goodwill' synonym is 'absence of actual ability'.

More of, the Russians don't have very many friends in the region, nor does the Russians have any reliable and friendly access route to Syria as well.

Think about it; the most direct sea route to Syria is through the Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits, through Turkish waters, and Turkey can close down that access route to all shipping from Russia if it deems them a threat according to the Montreux Convention. The only other routes is through the Strait of Gibraltar, which is controlled by the British and the Spanish, and the Suez Canal, which is controlled by the Egyptians, which aren't too pleased with the Russians right now.

By air, again, the countries that border Syria and thus having air access to Syria is through Turkey, Lebanon, Israel, Jordan, and Iraq. Turkey has closed off Turkish airspace to Russian overflights from the very beginning, there's no point flying through Israel or Lebanon for very obvious reasons each, Jordan is friendly with the US, and Iraq only permits limited overflights to Syria.

And in fact, the only route Russian aircraft have been flying to Syria is through Iraqi airspace via Iran. Publicly available flight data also supports this; the Russians are being forced to use a very circuitous route, essentially avoiding the Caucasus region, and flying over the Caspian Sea, to Iran and through Iraq, as it is very clear that Russia had been denied overflight by Georgia and Azerbaijan, with of course no access through Turkey, Bulgaria and Greece. That route can very easily be cut off if Iraq denies overflights, with the US backing up the Iraqi's if needed.

Russian escalation of the matter would not help the matters for Russia in the region; for example, cutting natural gas shipments to Turkey will severely harm the cash strapped Russian economy since 25% of Russian natural gas is exported to Turkey. And of course, the Russian fleet operating near Syria is supplied from the Black Sea via Turkish waters. No need to explain how further escalation by Russia will SEVERELY complicate logistics for the Russians in Syria.

[Edited 2015-11-29 20:27:45]
 
JJJ
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RE: Russian Jet Allegedly Shot Down In Turkey

Mon Nov 30, 2015 9:12 am

Quoting 1g (Reply 241):
Moving past the fact that Turkey and Greece are on good terms

Terms so good Turkey is the reason Greece has the largest military spending (as a % of GDP) in the EU? Cyprus?

Mock dogfights are apparently an almost daily occurrence, there was even an actual shootdown as late as 1996 . That's not "good terms" on any book.

You could say mutual NATO membership is a way to keep one off the other.
 
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bikerthai
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RE: Russian Jet Allegedly Shot Down In Turkey

Mon Nov 30, 2015 12:11 pm

Quoting FYODOR (Reply 247):
Mate, you think that you represent 'Superpowerwhichcandoeverything'. You right a lot - you are Superpower, stronger than Russia, than China, than India. But at the same time your Superpower sometimes stays helpless without versions what can it do. Like current case with ISIS. Think about that once.

Never thought Canadian considered themselves as a superpower. Don't they get insulted when they are referred as such?  

As a democracy, the choices are abundent. It is the matter of the willingness to pay the price. And if the will is there, the price will be paid. Don't be fooled when those here say it's Bush's war or Obama's war. When a democracy goes to war, it's the people's choice. Some times it's by the slimmest of majority and sometines it's misguided, but it's still their choice.

And as in the case of ISIS the choice is to let someone else do the fighting, for now. . .

Bt
Intelligent seeks knowledge. Enlightened seeks wisdom.
 
tu204
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RE: Russian Jet Allegedly Shot Down In Turkey

Mon Nov 30, 2015 5:54 pm

To those that think the shootdown was perfectly ok as it was a 17-second incursion into Turkey:

What would be your opinion of Russia shooting down a Turkish aircraft that might enter Syrian airspace?

By the way, this is the Israeli's response to a Russian jet accidentaly entering Israeli airspace:
http://www.nydailynews.com/news/worl...r-space-isn-shot-article-1.2450055

[Edited 2015-11-30 09:59:18]
I do not dream about movie stars, they must dream about me for I am real and they are not. - Alexander Popov
 
mbg
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RE: Russian Jet Allegedly Shot Down In Turkey

Mon Nov 30, 2015 8:33 pm

Quoting tu204 (Reply 256):

Reverse the question, what would Putin do if NATO landed a significant airforce and troops to Ukraine to aid her fight against the terrorists in the Eastern region.

Would he even wait for an incursion to start shooting?
 
trex8
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RE: Russian Jet Allegedly Shot Down In Turkey

Mon Nov 30, 2015 11:57 pm

Quoting tu204 (Reply 256):
By the way, this is the Israeli's response to a Russian jet accidentaly entering Israeli airspace:
http://www.nydailynews.com/news/worl...50055

Probably the most appropriate way to deal with such things and avoid unnecessary shootdowns but lets face it, the Israelis have no one to back them up if they are the over stepping. They are not going to take the Russians on. Turkey is part of NATO, they know they can get away with something and have NATO covering their back. The Israelis can only hope for the US to be sympathetic.
 
dfwjim1
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RE: Russian Jet Allegedly Shot Down In Turkey

Tue Dec 01, 2015 12:04 am

I do not see anything written in the article to indicate that Russia made repeated incursions into Israel's airspace and/or locked
their radar onto Israeli aircraft flying in Israeli airspace.

Quoting tu204 (Reply 256):
 
ThePointblank
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RE: Russian Jet Allegedly Shot Down In Turkey

Tue Dec 01, 2015 2:51 am

Quoting tu204 (Reply 256):
To those that think the shootdown was perfectly ok as it was a 17-second incursion into Turkey:

What would be your opinion of Russia shooting down a Turkish aircraft that might enter Syrian airspace?

By the way, this is the Israeli's response to a Russian jet accidentaly entering Israeli airspace:
http://www.nydailynews.com/news/worl...50055

The Turks had already warned Russia that further intrusions into their air space would be responded to. The Russians also KNEW that the Syrians have lost aircraft to the Turks for violating Turkish air space; the Syrian shootdowns by the Turks were reported in the media, and no doubt the Syrians would have told Russia about this.

So the Russians damned well knew that intrusions into Turkish air space could potentially be met with force, and yet they chose to violate Turkish air space...
 
angad84
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RE: Russian Jet Allegedly Shot Down In Turkey

Tue Dec 01, 2015 7:24 am

Quoting mbg (Reply 257):
Would he even wait for an incursion to start shooting?

Yes, because nukes/MAD. Hence the brinkmanship in the Ukraine. Nobody wants to be the first to escalate, because NATO v Russia is way higher stakes than Syria v Turkey (or whatever shitfest is the flavour of the month in the middle east today).

Quoting trex8 (Reply 258):
They are not going to take the Russians on.

Not because they don't have international backing, but because (a) they're not thick, and (b) they're not anti-Russia in the slightest. Israeli foreign policy is rarely dictated by the US/EU.

Quoting dfwjim1 (Reply 259):
I do not see anything written in the article to indicate that Russia made repeated incursions into Israel's airspace and/or locked their radar onto Israeli aircraft flying in Israeli airspace.

Maybe because Israel is not directly involved in the anti-Daesh ops in Syria? Maybe because they're not playing both sides in the most ham-handed manner possible?

Quoting ThePointblank (Reply 260):
So the Russians damned well knew that intrusions into Turkish air space could potentially be met with force, and yet they chose to violate Turkish air space...

I agree with most of what you've said. Turkey made their position clear and this was probably going to happen sooner or later. However, you choose to believe the violation was deliberate. I look at a 17 second incursion and 'deliberate' is the last thing that comes to mind. If someone said the Fencers were constantly looping into Turkish airspace after their strikes, not responding to radio calls, etc, I would buy the Turkish reaction. A shootdown after 17s, where the missile impacted outside Turkish airspace, sounds needlessly trigger happy.


Cheers
A
 
tu204
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RE: Russian Jet Allegedly Shot Down In Turkey

Tue Dec 01, 2015 10:35 am

Quoting mbg (Reply 257):
Reverse the question, what would Putin do if NATO landed a significant airforce and troops to Ukraine to aid her fight against the terrorists in the Eastern region.

Would he even wait for an incursion to start shooting?

My guess is he would supply the rebels/terorrists with some SAM's and let them do the shooting.
I doubt Russian aircraft would cross the border into Ukraine and go NATO-hunting.

Quoting ThePointblank (Reply 260):
The Russians also KNEW that the Syrians have lost aircraft to the Turks for violating Turkish air space; the Syrian shootdowns by the Turks were reported in the media, and no doubt the Syrians would have told Russia about this.

Well the Russians and everyone else for that matter also KNEW that Israel shot down a Syrian jet just last year.
Difference is that Israel decided it wasn't worth shooting down a jet that was of no threat and violated the border by a couple kilometers, Turkey decided it was worth it. Oh well...

Quoting ThePointblank (Reply 260):
So the Russians damned well knew that intrusions into Turkish air space could potentially be met with force, and yet they chose to violate Turkish air space...

Chose? How can you be so sure of that? Open a map and look at the area. For argument's sake, lets agree to the Turkish radar plot that the Su-24 flew exactly where they said it flew. Do you see that incursion as threatening in any way?

Again, for argument's sake the plane violated Turkish territory and they had a right to shoot it down. Is it worth the consequences for Turkey? My guess is it isn't.
Furthermore Syria should be happy as one of the outcomes of all of this is that Turkish jets won't be violating Syria's airspace for a while now. As Russia would be fully justified in shooting down anything Turkish that crosses into Syria for more than a couple seconds.
I do not dream about movie stars, they must dream about me for I am real and they are not. - Alexander Popov
 
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scbriml
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RE: Russian Jet Allegedly Shot Down In Turkey

Tue Dec 01, 2015 1:30 pm

Quoting tu204 (Reply 262):
My guess is he would supply the rebels/terorrists with some SAM's and let them do the shooting.

Hmm, we all know how that turns out.

Quoting tu204 (Reply 262):
I doubt Russian aircraft would cross the border into Ukraine and go NATO-hunting.

Are we talking about the Ukrainian part of Ukraine, or the parts that have been annexed by Russia?

Anyway, the question that was looking for an answer was "What would Putin do if NATO planes based in Ukraine were constantly making "accidental" incursions into Russian airspace?"
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
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flyingturtle
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RE: Russian Jet Allegedly Shot Down In Turkey

Tue Dec 01, 2015 1:32 pm



Hmm, are there international treaties that regulate the pursuit of a foreign aircraft in foreign air space?

Any way, it turns out nasty for Turkey because 60% of its natural gas comes from Russia... and I'm by no means a friend of Russia, acknowledging the land grabs in Ukraine and MH17...


David
Reading accident reports is what calms me down
 
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bikerthai
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RE: Russian Jet Allegedly Shot Down In Turkey

Tue Dec 01, 2015 2:50 pm

Quoting angad84 (Reply 261):
they're not anti-Russia in the slightest.

No, but they do need Russian cooperation in order to allow Russian Jews to continue to immigrate to Israel.

Quoting angad84 (Reply 261):

Maybe because Israel is not directly involved in the anti-Daesh ops in Syria?

No, but Israel do not like the Russian to continue to ship SAMs to Hezbollah via IRAN/Syria.
So they do intrude into and bomb Syria once in a while.

Now that Russian airplanes are in Syria, will the Israeli continue to go after those SAMs shipment? If yes, then they do want to make sure the Russians are not mad at them.

Quoting angad84 (Reply 261):
I look at a 17 second incursion and 'deliberate' is the last thing that comes to mind.

Never been in the military let alone privy to mission planning. But if you are going to plan a mission near the border after repeated warning and do not have a better way to hit the target without crossing that tiny spit of land, then your planners are either incompetent, the pilot is incompetent or the whole chain of command is arrogant. I for one do not believe the pilot or the planners as incompetent.

bt
Intelligent seeks knowledge. Enlightened seeks wisdom.
 
tu204
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RE: Russian Jet Allegedly Shot Down In Turkey

Tue Dec 01, 2015 3:12 pm

Quoting scbriml (Reply 263):
Are we talking about the Ukrainian part of Ukraine, or the parts that have been annexed by Russia?

Into Ukraine. As in Donetsk, Lughansk, Kharkiv regions that border Russia.

Quoting scbriml (Reply 263):
Anyway, the question that was looking for an answer was "What would Putin do if NATO planes based in Ukraine were constantly making "accidental" incursions into Russian airspace?"

Read mbg's question again, if you want to ask a question of your own, feel free:

Quoting mbg (Reply 257):
Reverse the question, what would Putin do if NATO landed a significant airforce and troops to Ukraine to aid her fight against the terrorists in the Eastern region.

Would he even wait for an incursion to start shooting?

Now to answer your question:
If these accidental incursions were NATO jets flying along the border, my guess is they would be intercepted and not shot down.
If the aircraft made a dash deep into Russian territory, like a North-South dash at Sevastopol, my guess is they would be brought down.

Quoting flyingturtle (Reply 264):
Hmm, are there international treaties that regulate the pursuit of a foreign aircraft in foreign air space?

Would be interesting to find out.
Also interesting is that now based on this, if Turkish F-16's decide to "probe" the border (enter for a minute and leave) that makes them fair game for let's say a S-400 to bring them down once they are already back inside Turkish airspace. As long as the missile is fired when they are in Syria I guess...

Quoting flyingturtle (Reply 264):
Any way, it turns out nasty for Turkey because 60% of its natural gas comes from Russia...

That isn't the only problem, and so far there hasn't been even any talk of disruptions to the gas.
Russian sanctions towards Turkey are:
Suspending visa-free travel for Turkish citizens starting Jan 1st,
Suspending sales of tours to Turkey,
Suspending import of produce,
Suspending issue of work permits to Turkish citizens.

The economic ties between Russia and Turkey went pretty far and were growing, there's also several hundred thousand Turks living in Russia and about 100,000 Russians living in Turkey.
The sooner this mess blows over, the better for both countries.
I do not dream about movie stars, they must dream about me for I am real and they are not. - Alexander Popov
 
ThePointblank
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RE: Russian Jet Allegedly Shot Down In Turkey

Tue Dec 01, 2015 3:42 pm

Quoting tu204 (Reply 262):
Well the Russians and everyone else for that matter also KNEW that Israel shot down a Syrian jet just last year.
Difference is that Israel decided it wasn't worth shooting down a jet that was of no threat and violated the border by a couple kilometers, Turkey decided it was worth it. Oh well...

Turkey shot down the Su-24 because it failed to respond to radio calls, over a channel the Russians said that they were monitoring to the Turks.

It's simply arrogance on the part of the Russians; they thought they could get away with continued overflights of Turkish territory, and ignore warnings over a radio channel they agreed that they would monitor to prevent such situations from happening.

And also, it has been reported that the Russians reportedly clear with the Israeli's any air operations close to the Israeli border; the Israeli's already know who's aircraft it is. The Turks didn't.

Quoting tu204 (Reply 262):
Chose? How can you be so sure of that? Open a map and look at the area. For argument's sake, lets agree to the Turkish radar plot that the Su-24 flew exactly where they said it flew. Do you see that incursion as threatening in any way?

The Russian ambassador to Turkey prior to this incident was dressed down by the Turkish government over the continued violations of Turkish territory by Russian aircraft!

And yes it is threatening; you have armed aircraft coming towards your border with unknown intentions. The aircraft fail to respond to calls over the radio... remember, one has the right to defend their own territory in such situations. Had the Russian pilot responded to the Turkish calls over the radio, he might still be alive.

Quoting tu204 (Reply 262):
Furthermore Syria should be happy as one of the outcomes of all of this is that Turkish jets won't be violating Syria's airspace for a while now. As Russia would be fully justified in shooting down anything Turkish that crosses into Syria for more than a couple seconds.

Russia has 34 aircraft in Syria, with a portion of them only ground attack aircraft. Turkey has over 236 F-16's and 47 heavily upgraded F-4 Phantom II's all right next door... Something tells me the scales are tipped towards Turkey, not Russia in such a situation.

Quoting flyingturtle (Reply 264):
Any way, it turns out nasty for Turkey because 60% of its natural gas comes from Russia... and I'm by no means a friend of Russia, acknowledging the land grabs in Ukraine and MH17...

Which makes up 25% of Russian natural gas exports... and the Russian economy is already cash strapped. Do the Russians feel like making a bigger hit to their economy?
 
tu204
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RE: Russian Jet Allegedly Shot Down In Turkey

Tue Dec 01, 2015 4:30 pm

Quoting ThePointblank (Reply 267):
And also, it has been reported that the Russians reportedly clear with the Israeli's any air operations close to the Israeli border; the Israeli's already know who's aircraft it is. The Turks didn't.

Russia notifies the U.S. coalition of sorties over Syria and the U.S. notifies Russia on it's allies flights over Syria. This was agreed upon several weeks after we started flying there.
So bad excuse.

Quoting ThePointblank (Reply 267):
you have armed aircraft coming towards your border with unknown intentions.

Look at a map.
Intentions are pretty clear from that flight path. Certainly is not an agressive manuever.

Quoting ThePointblank (Reply 267):
Russia has 34 aircraft in Syria, with a portion of them only ground attack aircraft. Turkey has over 236 F-16's and 47 heavily upgraded F-4 Phantom II's all right next door... Something tells me the scales are tipped towards Turkey, not Russia in such a situation.

I don't know where you are getting your idea that Turkey would for some reason throw their entire Air Force at the Russian contigent in Syria  
If there's going to be a Turkish violation of Syria's airspace, it would most likely be one or two aircraft.

I'll humor your statement a bit though: there's plenty of SAMs in addition to those 34 aircraft  
I do not dream about movie stars, they must dream about me for I am real and they are not. - Alexander Popov
 
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sturmovik
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RE: Russian Jet Allegedly Shot Down In Turkey

Tue Dec 01, 2015 5:45 pm

Quoting angad84 (Reply 261):
I agree with most of what you've said. Turkey made their position clear and this was probably going to happen sooner or later. However, you choose to believe the violation was deliberate. I look at a 17 second incursion and 'deliberate' is the last thing that comes to mind. If someone said the Fencers were constantly looping into Turkish airspace after their strikes, not responding to radio calls, etc, I would buy the Turkish reaction. A shootdown after 17s, where the missile impacted outside Turkish airspace, sounds needlessly trigger happy.

  

Quoting bikerthai (Reply 265):
hit the target without crossing that tiny spit of land,

So by your logic, I guess the Turkish AF is completely incompetent, what with their inability to plan to avoid what is well known to be disputed airspace with Greece. And they do that hundreds of times a year!
'What's it doing now?'
 
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bikerthai
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RE: Russian Jet Allegedly Shot Down In Turkey

Tue Dec 01, 2015 6:08 pm

Quoting sturmovik (Reply 269):
So by your logic, I guess the Turkish AF is completely incompetent,

No I would call it arrogance.

Quoting tu204 (Reply 268):
Look at a map.
Intentions are pretty clear from that flight path. Certainly is not an agressive manuever.

Doesn't matter whether the maneuver is aggressive or not. The intention is to cross over the tiny spit of land to hit the target on the other side and hope that Turkey would ignore the intrusion for a few seconds.

The alternative approach is to use a guided weapon that you can drop at stand off distance so you don't even have to approach the border or cross over that tiny spit of land. Perhaps they decided a few Turkmen hamlet are not worth the stand-off weapons.

We have a saying . . . "better to ask for forgiveness than to ask for permission". I guess in some case the saying does not work . . .

bt
Intelligent seeks knowledge. Enlightened seeks wisdom.
 
angad84
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RE: Russian Jet Allegedly Shot Down In Turkey

Tue Dec 01, 2015 7:58 pm

Quoting ThePointblank (Reply 267):
Turkey shot down the Su-24 because it failed to respond to radio calls

So they made the call to shoot the plane down within 17 seconds? Riiiiiiight.

"Hello? Hello? Hello?"

"... f*** it, Fox 2."

Try re-enacting this scenario in your head in 17 seconds to get a feel for how utterly daft it is.

Quoting ThePointblank (Reply 267):
It's simply arrogance on the part of the Russians; they thought they could get away with continued overflights of Turkish territory, and ignore warnings over a radio channel they agreed that they would monitor to prevent such situations from happening.

Yes it is. And overreacting to such arrogance is, in a word, idiotic. Neither side is blameless.

Quoting ThePointblank (Reply 267):
And also, it has been reported that the Russians reportedly clear with the Israeli's any air operations close to the Israeli border; the Israeli's already know who's aircraft it is. The Turks didn't.

So we should all shoot down aircraft willy-nilly. Great idea.

Remember how earlier this year Russian aircraft were screwing around in Europe with transponders switched off? Remember how NOBODY SHOT ANYBODY DOWN!?

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...dark-warplanes-are-spooking-europe

Funny how that works...

Quoting ThePointblank (Reply 267):
Russia has 34 aircraft in Syria, with a portion of them only ground attack aircraft. Turkey has over 236 F-16's and 47 heavily upgraded F-4 Phantom II's all right next door... Something tells me the scales are tipped towards Turkey, not Russia in such a situation.

You make me laugh. If Turkey threw their entire air force at the Russian detachment in Syria, the absolute thrashing they would receive in return from Russia-based assets would make the Battle of Vienna seem like a pleasant family vacation.

And now we know where NATO and the 'west' stand on the Russia v Turkey issue. That is, very firmly outside the ring.

Quoting ThePointblank (Reply 267):
Which makes up 25% of Russian natural gas exports... and the Russian economy is already cash strapped. Do the Russians feel like making a bigger hit to their economy?

Here you have the truth of it. Most of my Russian friends and colleagues are adamant that Russia will do nothing to upset the fragile economic situation. Money is a large part of the reason for Russia's restraint in the aftermath of this needless altercation, and Turkey can consider itself very fortunate. If the Russians decided that Su-30SM escorts were warranted for their strike aircraft, and elected to follow similar 'hot pursuit' rules of engagement as Turkey has demonstrated... well, I would not like to be in a THK fighter cockpit in the border regions.

Quoting bikerthai (Reply 270):
No I would call it arrogance.

Excellent. So both sides are arrogant. With that parity established, don't you think Turkey could have been a little less aggro?

Quoting bikerthai (Reply 270):
"better to ask for forgiveness than to ask for permission"

BT, you've got an American flag next to your username, so you've got to know by now that this strategy has not quite worked out very well for your country over the past half-century or so...

Cheers
Angad
 
ThePointblank
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RE: Russian Jet Allegedly Shot Down In Turkey

Wed Dec 02, 2015 9:33 am

Quoting tu204 (Reply 268):
Look at a map.
Intentions are pretty clear from that flight path. Certainly is not an agressive manuever.

Turkey has the right to defend their territory from foreign military intrusions. The Russians intruded, and by all accounts, they have regularly done so despite many warnings and an ultimatum not to.

And the Russians HAVE acted aggressively against Turkish aircraft in the past; for one instance, Russian Su-24's and Su-30's violated Turkish airspace, and the Su-30's proceeded to lock onto the Turkish F-16's with their radars for a good 5 minutes. In military terms, radar locking this long is considered an hostile act. The Russians claimed navigational error for violating Turkish airspace in the beginning, which makes no sense as the Su-30 does have fairly advanced navigation systems onboard...

Quoting tu204 (Reply 268):


I'll humor your statement a bit though: there's plenty of SAMs in addition to those 34 aircraft

You mean that single S-400 battery, a couple of SA-20 batteries, plus a Slava-class cruiser? You do realize that the Turks have stand-off weaponry capable of knocking out such systems from outside their engagement envelopes? That's beyond the fact that they don't have enough missiles to shoot down every aircraft, especially if you consider that the Turks also have extensive EW experience.

You are very naive thinking that deployment of S-400 will shift the balance toward's Russia favour. You have conveniently forgotten the Bekaa Valley events of 1982 when the most sophisticated SAMs (including S-200) were disabled by echeloned EW (including multiple decoy drones) and then were systematically destroyed by Israeli Air Force. No doubt Turkey has learned a thing or two about EW from the Israeli's through military exchanges and cooperation.

Quoting angad84 (Reply 271):
So they made the call to shoot the plane down within 17 seconds? Riiiiiiight.

"Hello? Hello? Hello?"

"... f*** it, Fox 2."

Try re-enacting this scenario in your head in 17 seconds to get a feel for how utterly daft it is.

How about the audio:

english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2015/11/25/-I-knew-it-was-going-to-happen-MEA-pilot-recalls-downing-of-Russian-jet.html

The recording was heard by the USAF and many civilian aircraft and ham radio operators in the region on the international UHF Emergency frequency 243.000 MHz. This warning was repeated multiple times over a period of 5 minutes. This particular recording was provided by a civilian pilot flying with MEA who recorded it on his phone flying out of Beruit. The pilot that provided the recording noted that Russian aircraft have been warned repeatedly like this and he had heard no responses in the past. The pilot noted that this time, the Turks seemed considerably more agitated and were shouting over the radio.

Quoting angad84 (Reply 271):
Yes it is. And overreacting to such arrogance is, in a word, idiotic. Neither side is blameless.

The Turks have warned in the past that according to their ROE, unidentified aircraft flying towards their airspace along the border with Syria would be warned, and if they ignored the warnings and crossed into Turkish territory, they would be immediately considered hostile and be potentially fired upon. The previous shootdowns of Syrian Air Force aircraft and a couple of unidentified drones showed that the Turks were very serious about this.
 
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flyingturtle
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RE: Russian Jet Allegedly Shot Down In Turkey

Wed Dec 02, 2015 1:42 pm

Quoting ThePointblank (Reply 272):
Turkey has the right to defend their territory from foreign military intrusions. The Russians intruded, and by all accounts, they have regularly done so despite many warnings and an ultimatum not to.

You're much interested and knowledgeable about military aviation. The right of Turkey to defend it's territory and air space is not in question - but what is questionable is defending that air space by hitting an aircraft flying outside that air space, or by firing a weapon outside that airspace, and hitting the aircraft inside your own airspace.

The large amount of warnings issued to the Russian pilots probably says that the Russians have been violating Turkish air space for a longer time...

To that question, I've googled but found nothing... but the interesting fact that there is a permanent flying prohibition above Disneyland - approved through a 2003 Congress spending bill!   


David
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bikerthai
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RE: Russian Jet Allegedly Shot Down In Turkey

Wed Dec 02, 2015 2:29 pm

Quoting angad84 (Reply 271):
BT, you've got an American flag next to your username, so you've got to know by now that this strategy has not quite worked out very well for your country over the past half-century or so...

History is can be a good teacher only if you are willing to learn. But then times changes and sometimes old lessons can be out dated.

As for the saying, at my company I've indoctrinated not to follow that saying and Indian companies that work with us are ask to do the same.

Quoting flyingturtle (Reply 273):
The large amount of warnings issued to the Russian pilots probably says that the Russians have been violating Turkish air space for a longer time...

The warning began when the plane approach the border. None of us here are arguing that the Russian aircraft was over Turkish territory for a long time. Even the Turk do not argue that.

bt
Intelligent seeks knowledge. Enlightened seeks wisdom.
 
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flyingturtle
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RE: Russian Jet Allegedly Shot Down In Turkey

Wed Dec 02, 2015 3:52 pm

Quoting bikerthai (Reply 274):
The warning began when the plane approach the border. None of us here are arguing that the Russian aircraft was over Turkish territory for a long time. Even the Turk do not argue that.

I know this, having read the letter to the UN Secretary General which says the violation took place for 17 seconds.

All I wish is an authoritative source saying if and when a country is allowed to shoot down a plane in the air space of another country...  


David
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bikerthai
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RE: Russian Jet Allegedly Shot Down In Turkey

Wed Dec 02, 2015 6:21 pm

Quoting flyingturtle (Reply 275):
All I wish is an authoritative source saying if and when a country is allowed to shoot down a plane in the air space of another country...

Yes, that would be nice 
Of course, this conflict has shown that what is "allowed" and "what is done" are often not the same.

Just recently heard a story on the news on the systematic bombing of hospitals . . . I wonder if you can find that written some where in the Geneva Conversion?

bt
Intelligent seeks knowledge. Enlightened seeks wisdom.
 
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TK105
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RE: Russian Jet Allegedly Shot Down In Turkey

Wed Dec 02, 2015 8:04 pm

Here is an interesting article on the subject published by Itallian Il Manifesto newspaper (you can use Google translate for English):

http://www.voltairenet.org/article189486.html
The future is in the skies.
 
bhill
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RE: Russian Jet Allegedly Shot Down In Turkey

Wed Dec 02, 2015 8:27 pm

Quoting tjh8402 (Reply 204):
Quoting tu204 (Reply 199):

How come during the 15 months of US-led intervention ISIS got control of over 50% of Syria, and why when in the 2 months that Russia stepped in and started bombing the place to shit that ISIS started to lose ground?

Maybe you guys were bombing the wrong places yourselves?

Because the "soldiers" we trained dropped their weapons and ran away?
Carpe Pices
 
wingman
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RE: Russian Jet Allegedly Shot Down In Turkey

Wed Dec 02, 2015 8:59 pm

Quoting TK105 (Reply 277):
Here is an interesting article on the subject published by Itallian Il Manifesto newspaper (you can use Google translate for English):

Or to save everyone the hassle: "It's all the USA's fault because Erdogan and the Turkish military are remote-controlled via a Sony Play Station from a nondescript brownstone in Georgetown".

When you add this to the pieces proving that the US is the main backer of ISIS it makes you wonder how we don't remote control China out of the South China Sea.
 
tu204
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RE: Russian Jet Allegedly Shot Down In Turkey

Wed Dec 02, 2015 9:27 pm

Quoting bhill (Reply 278):
Because the "soldiers" we trained dropped their weapons and ran away?

Everyone makes mistakes.

I suggest learning from them and not training guys that will (at best) drop their weapons for the terrorists and run away.

Unfortunately the "drop and run" is a best case scenario. The normal one is that they just join the terrorists. Weapons in hand.
I do not dream about movie stars, they must dream about me for I am real and they are not. - Alexander Popov
 
ThePointblank
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RE: Russian Jet Allegedly Shot Down In Turkey

Thu Dec 03, 2015 5:13 am

Quoting flyingturtle (Reply 273):

The large amount of warnings issued to the Russian pilots probably says that the Russians have been violating Turkish air space for a longer time...

The Russians have a history of playing loose and fast with air space violations in the past.

For example, the Russians have been criticized in the past for not employing their transponders in a civilian mode when operating in or near NATO airspace, so that they at least are deconflicted with local civilian air traffic.

More precisely, the Russians tended to like turning off their transponders, so that they are invisible to ATC, which you can imagine could create an air safety hazard for civilian aircraft in the same air space. There has been several close calls between civilian aircraft and Russian Air Force aircraft as a result of this practice by the Russians.

In comparison, NATO aircraft usually prefer to have their transponders on, even in international air space, except on combat or intelligence missions, because of the air safety risks involved.

I imagine that had this been the only incursion by the Russians into Turkish air space, the Turks would have just summoned the Russian ambassador and gave him an ear full. But repeat incursions is just asking for trouble, and perhaps the incursion by the Su-24 was just the straw that broke the camel's back for the Turks. Especially if you take that report by the MEA pilot who reported that he's heard multiple warnings calls from the Turkish military to the Russians over the emergency channel two or three times a week for the past month, all with no response from the Russians.
 
yyzala
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RE: Russian Jet Allegedly Shot Down In Turkey

Thu Dec 03, 2015 5:40 pm

Quoting ThePointblank (Reply 281):
The Russians have a history of playing loose and fast with air space violations in the past.

So do the Turkish. 114 times they have violated the Greek in the last few years. Greeks never shot their planes down. Russia was an ally in the war against ISIS. Why would you shoot your own down? Erdogan eventually back pedalled and stated that he didn't know it was Russian. So if a UFO is flying the protocol is to identify it first, before shooting it. You have ex nato generals going on record stating that this is the standard protocol for a NATO member. If the Turks are still not happy with Russia going into their airspace, there are economic and political ways to send a clear message. But shooting down an airplane is not one of them!

With S-400 now set up thanks to Erdogan, NATO and its allies have to coordinate with Russia on airstrikes. They can no longer bomb whoever they like. This means that Russia can take the lead on this campaign.

Quoting ThePointblank (Reply 272):
You mean that single S-400 battery, a couple of SA-20 batteries, plus a Slava-class cruiser? You do realize that the Turks have stand-off weaponry capable of knocking out such systems from outside their engagement envelopes?

You do know that would mean war? Just like closing the Bosphorous strait on Russia, that you seem to think Turkey can do. This would be considered an attack on Russia. NATO would not support Turkey as this Article 5 would not apply. Turkey would be on its own. Here is what would happen:

- Cruise missiles coming from caspian and black sea. These would be flying at military bases as the Air Force is the only viable threat from Turkey.
- Cruise missiles from Crimea coast destroying any Turkish ships in the black sea
- Cruise missiles from Long range bomber aviation
- More cruise missiles from land

These missiles would overwhelm the poor air defense system that Turkey has. The Hawk and Rapier would be obliterated. Patriot system only in operation by Spain in Turkey would not be operating as I mention again Article 5 does not apply if Turkey starts the war. And even if the patriots were in operation, nothing Russia can't handle. So no navy, no air force what would Turkey fight back with? This war would be quicker than the Georgian Conflict!

Quoting ThePointblank (Reply 272):
Turks also have extensive EW experience

Maybe against the EXPORT S-300 system that Slovakia and Greece had. But not against the S-400 operated by Russia. Not sure how much intel the Israeli's would share with Turkey. They themselves are scared sh*tless of it. Why do you think they don't want Iran getting this system? Russia's EW use is extensive something that USA themselves were not aware of. From http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/10/21/russia-winning-the-electronic-war/

Quote:
Faced with how the newly modernized Russian army is operating in Ukraine and Syria — using equipment like the Krasukha-4, which jams radar and aircraft — American military officials are being forced to admit they’re scrambling to catch up.
Quote:
Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, commander of U.S. Army units in Europe, has described Russian EW capabilities in Ukraine as “eye-watering.” Ronald Pontius, deputy to Army Cyber Command’s chief, Lt. Gen. Edward Cardon, told a conference this month that “you can’t but come to the conclusion that we’re not making progress at the pace the threat demands.”

ThePointblank, I really enjoy reading your posts, but you are so biased towards one side that you fail to acknowledge that you might be wrong as well. While Turkey might have had the right to shoot down that plane, it was a wrong move. It was short sighted and Erdogan will be paying for it in the long run - no more cheap oil from ISIS, economic sanctions and Russia will make sure Kurds get their own state.

[Edited 2015-12-03 09:45:46]

[Edited 2015-12-03 09:46:31]
 
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flyingturtle
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RE: Russian Jet Allegedly Shot Down In Turkey

Thu Dec 03, 2015 6:47 pm

Quoting yyzala (Reply 282):
and Russia will make sure Kurds get their own state.

The West has long lost the initiative by not supporting moderate rebels a few years ago. So we handed Daesh large swathes of Syria, we have handed Russia the opportunity to prop up another slaughterer, Assad, and now Russia has the upper hands in the Syria game. A sad development.

And Turkey is clinging to the EU by offering to hold back Syrian refugees (and is demanding money to the tune of 3 billion Euros for this "humanitarian" service - I wonder how much will actually end up for housing, feeding and treating the refugees!).

I'm amazed how Russia was able to improve its standing thanks to the Syria mess. Taking Crimea and eastern Ukraine was a PR disaster, but yes, thanks to Syria Russia will enjoy a political victory. Turkey can support Daesh only so long before it blows up in Mr. Erdogans own face.


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bikerthai
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RE: Russian Jet Allegedly Shot Down In Turkey

Thu Dec 03, 2015 8:29 pm

Quoting yyzala (Reply 282):
They can no longer bomb whoever they like.

The Western forces has not been targeting any where near the forces of Assad. So they should not have a problem staying away from those SAMs

Quoting yyzala (Reply 282):
Russia will make sure Kurds get their own state.

Only thru the Syrian negotiation table as Russia has no influence in Turkey or Iraq as those countries will have to agree to any Kurdish state. As for the US, they my support the Kurds now, they may not be there for Kurdish Statehood.

Quoting flyingturtle (Reply 283):
The West has long lost the initiative by not supporting moderate rebels a few years ago

It takes two to tango, much of the non-ISIS rebels do not wish to side with the US directly because of ideology and US refusal to attack Assad's forces. You can not support those who are not willing to accept the support. When they get desperate with the Russian forces joining the battle, they hold their noise and accept the US made TOWs through the Arab intermediary.

Quoting flyingturtle (Reply 283):
thanks to Syria Russia will enjoy a political victory.

Only in the eyes of Russians and their sympathizers. Those who follow this war knows enough NOT to declare any victory, political or otherwise.

bt

[Edited 2015-12-03 12:30:31]
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dfwjim1
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RE: Russian Jet Allegedly Shot Down In Turkey

Thu Dec 03, 2015 11:24 pm

Just curious about a couple of things:

1). Does Russia have command and control aircraft in the skies above Syria that control their aircraft? If so where they on
duty when the Russian fighter crossed into Turkish airspace?

2). Will the navigator on the SU-24 bear any responsibility for his aircraft entering into Turkish airspace?
 
Flighty
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RE: Russian Jet Allegedly Shot Down In Turkey

Thu Dec 03, 2015 11:40 pm

Quoting yyzala (Reply 282):
But shooting down an airplane is not one of them!

Why not? I tend to believe Putin will pay a lot more attention to what Turkey's defense ministers say in the future.

AFAIK they said they were mad at incursions and intended to shoot them down in the future. And did so. I think it went down in the wrong country and was incredibly high handed, but still. Threat delivered and threat should be listened to in future.
 
XT6Wagon
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RE: Russian Jet Allegedly Shot Down In Turkey

Fri Dec 04, 2015 4:04 am

Quoting yyzala (Reply 282):
So do the Turkish. 114 times they have violated the Greek in the last few years

You do know that Turkey and Greece have overlaping claims on many things including islands and the air/sea rights that go with it?

Its a much different situation between those two than Turkey and Russia. More so since Turkey is extremely sensitive about the issues with the Kurds. They have a real fear that they will have to give up the land the kurds occupy, and so are very pro-active in suppressing any move in that direction. Even when its counter productive.
 
ThePointblank
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RE: Russian Jet Allegedly Shot Down In Turkey

Fri Dec 04, 2015 4:05 am

Quoting yyzala (Reply 282):
So do the Turkish. 114 times they have violated the Greek in the last few years. Greeks never shot their planes down.

1. Turkey and Greece have an actual territorial dispute in the Aegean Sea. Russia actually violated what is Turkish territory.
2. Greece HAS shot down a Turkish fighter before. But the vast majority of the instances are just interceptions and bumping exercises.

Quoting yyzala (Reply 282):
With S-400 now set up thanks to Erdogan, NATO and its allies have to coordinate with Russia on airstrikes. They can no longer bomb whoever they like. This means that Russia can take the lead on this campaign.

Russia's deployment of the S-400 is more bark than bite. See what happened in Syria in 1982 in the Bekka Valley when a integrated SAM system complete with some of the best Soviet SAM's, being supported by Soviet advisers faced off against the Israeli Air Force. Hint: The Syrians lost.

The Turks are just as capable as the Israeli's in having stand off EW assets and SEAD capabilities, and just as competent.

Quoting yyzala (Reply 282):
- Cruise missiles coming from caspian and black sea. These would be flying at military bases as the Air Force is the only viable threat from Turkey.
- Cruise missiles from Crimea coast destroying any Turkish ships in the black sea
- Cruise missiles from Long range bomber aviation
- More cruise missiles from land

The Russians don't have that many cruise missiles... and the bulk of the Russian missile force is nuclear.

Quoting yyzala (Reply 282):
Maybe against the EXPORT S-300 system that Slovakia and Greece had. But not against the S-400 operated by Russia. Not sure how much intel the Israeli's would share with Turkey. They themselves are scared sh*tless of it. Why do you think they don't want Iran getting this system? Russia's EW use is extensive something that USA themselves were not aware of. From http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/10/21/...-war/

Turkey has deployed their KORAL EW system to the border with Syria, and they have stand off EW assets on standby as well. There's even talk of the USN deploying EA-18G Growlers to Turkey as well.

Those Russian SAMs are not something exclusively special and unavoidable. If you tracked the events in Ukraine last year - Russians were using all types of sophisticated medium range SAMs against Ukrainian Air Force, including TOR, BUK and Pansir systems. The Ukrainians don't have any effective EW capabilities, SEAD/DEAD and stand off capabilities compared to the Turks, so the Ukrainians immediately switched tactics flying nap of earth attacks, with last minute pop up attacks.

Furthermore, while S-400 is a modern, powerful and capable system, it's not something that US, Israeli or even the Turks can not prepare for or have experienced similar systems. The US Navy has just as capable systems operational in AEGIS and the US Army has Patriot and THAAD systems that can simulate S-400 in a number of capabilities. Israel has Patriot, Arrow and David's Sling to do the same.

Quoting Flighty (Reply 286):
Why not? I tend to believe Putin will pay a lot more attention to what Turkey's defense ministers say in the future.

AFAIK they said they were mad at incursions and intended to shoot them down in the future. And did so. I think it went down in the wrong country and was incredibly high handed, but still. Threat delivered and threat should be listened to in future.

Correct. This situation won't escalate any further, and Russia won't do anything more beyond some bluster and banning Turkish vegetable imports and tourism to Turkey. It serves no purpose for the Russians to directly mess with the Turks in any hostile manner.
 
1g
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RE: Russian Jet Allegedly Shot Down In Turkey

Fri Dec 04, 2015 7:12 am

Quoting yyzala (Reply 282):
no more cheap oil from ISIS

This just makes no sense.

If Turkey bought all of the oil ISIS was capable of producing daily, and that's a very big if, it would barely meet 5% of Turkey's energy consumption. Meanwhile, Russia supplies 60% of our natural gas. If this is all genuinely all about energy, not shooting that jet down would have been the best course of action for Turkey.

ISIS oil is usually sold inside of Syria because there are no alternatives, and this 'cheap' ISIS oil is probably sold at a premium above international rates since there are no alternatives. ISIS oil is also very low quality since a lot of the refineries in Syria are small scale amateur operations.

Also, the evidence released by Russia's MoD 'proving' Turkish officials are in the ISIS oil business is a total joke. The three border crossings mentioned by Russia's MoD are not even controlled by ISIS. Funnily enough, one of them are totally controlled by the Kurds (North Eastern crossing), the second one is controlled by Assad and the Kurds (Qamishli, central crossing) and the third one is messy mixture of Al Nusra, FSA and Kurdish control (North Western crossing).

That's not all, the MoD also claims the oil is refined in the city Turkish city of Batman. The refineries in Batman are owned by the 'Koç group' or alternatively the Koç family. The Koç family are not on the best of terms with Erdogan or the Turkish government, in fact their media outlets are highly critical of Erdogan and the government. Yet according to Russia, this wonderful family operated business of Erdogan is also cooperating with Koç that dislikes Erdogan in order to process that nice ISIS oil. The media outlets of Koç, which as I mentioned are critical of the government and Erdogan, didn't even cover the briefing by Russia's MoD because it implicated their refineries to be part of the illegal ISIS oil trade.

It's almost as if they told some Russian intern to research Syrian-Turkish border crossings and refineries in Turkey and told him to put together a power point.

Of course that's not to say there are absolutely no pockets of people in Turkey buying ISIS oil, there likely are people buying surplus ISIS oil. But of course this would be illegal trade not approved or condoned by the government. Just like how people buy cartel cocaine inside the United States, but of course no one is accusing the United States of buying cartel cocaine.

[Edited 2015-12-03 23:16:29]
 
ThePointblank
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RE: Russian Jet Allegedly Shot Down In Turkey

Fri Dec 04, 2015 7:37 am

Quoting 1g (Reply 289):

This just makes no sense.

Indeed, considering that the US Treasury Department is accusing Syrians of doing it:

http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-says...-oil-from-islamic-state-1448471418

Basically, one of the people blacklisted by the US Treasury Department, is a Syrian-Russian business person, who apparently was coordinating and facilitating the deal. Kirsan Ilyumzhinov, a Russian national is also implicated in the ISIL oil deal.
 
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RE: Russian Jet Allegedly Shot Down In Turkey

Sat Dec 05, 2015 1:21 pm

Murphy is an optimist
 
dfwjim1
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RE: Russian Jet Allegedly Shot Down In Turkey

Sat Dec 05, 2015 7:53 pm

What I find interesting in all this is that there have been no reported incursions by Russian aircraft into Turkish airspace
since the shoot down occurred.
 
yyzala
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RE: Russian Jet Allegedly Shot Down In Turkey

Sat Dec 05, 2015 8:47 pm

Quoting Flighty (Reply 286):

AFAIK they said they were mad at incursions and intended to shoot them down in the future. And did so. I think it went down in the wrong country and was incredibly high handed, but still. Threat delivered and threat should be listened to in future.
Quoting XT6Wagon (Reply 287):
Its a much different situation between those two than Turkey and Russia. More so since Turkey is extremely sensitive about the issues with the Kurds. They have a real fear that they will have to give up the land the kurds occupy, and so are very pro-active in suppressing any move in that direction. Even when its counter productive.

I will stand with what I said earlier. There are other ways to send a message. Does NATO want a member who is running around doing things that hurts them in the long run? Do the Turkish people want a leader like that? They have just poked the bear and others are starting to wake up. Just some news headlines, in the past 48 hours:

Quote:
Germany 'draws up plans to prevent sharing intelligence' with Nato ally Turkey
Quote:
Iraq orders Turkey to 'immediately' withdraw troops sent across border
Quote:
France insists Assad's departure not necessary before Syria transition
Quoting ThePointblank (Reply 288):
See what happened in Syria in 1982 in the Bekka Valley when a integrated SAM system complete with some of the best Soviet SAM's, being supported by Soviet advisers faced off against the Israeli Air Force. Hint: The Syrians lost.
Quote:
“Syrian SAM operators also invited disaster upon themselves. Their Soviet equipment was generally regarded as quite good; Syrian handling of it was appalling.

As noted by Lt Gen Leonard Perroots, director of the US Defense Intelligence Agency, “The Syrians used mobile missiles in a fixed configuration; they put the radars in the valley instead of the hills because they didn't want to dig latrines -- seriously.” The Syrian practice of stationing mobile missiles in one place for several months allowed Israeli reconnaissance to determine the exact location of the missiles and their radars, giving the IAF a definite tactical advantage on the eve of battle. Even so, the Syrians might have been able to avoid the complete destruction of their SAM complex had they effectively camouflaged their sites; instead, they used smoke to “hide” them, which actually made them easier to spot from the air. It is ironic that the Syrians, who have been criticized for their strict adherence to Soviet doctrine, chose to ignore the viable doctrine that emphasizes the utility of maneuver and camouflage. According to a 1981 article in Soviet Military Review, alternate firing positions, defensive ambushes, regular repositioning of mobile SAMs to confuse enemy intelligence, and the emplacement of dummy SAM sites are fundamental considerations for the effective deployment and survivability of ground-based air defenses.”
Quote:
The failure of Syrian and Iraqi missileers to follow Soviet operational doctrine, tactics and deployment technique indicates that the root cause of poor effectiveness in combat was deeply deficient training of missileers, and prima facie, also support personnel. The effectiveness of the very same SAM systems, operated by Soviet, Warsaw Pact and PAVN personnel, was vastly better, whether in the Middle East or South East Asia.

I think we can put that argument to rest.

Quoting ThePointblank (Reply 288):
The Turks are just as capable as the Israeli's in having stand off EW assets and SEAD capabilities, and just as competent.

I'd love to see them try. At least the Israelis have 50+ years of experience in various regional wars. What experience does Turkey have? I'm sure they would succeed in the end as this is not an integrated network like you would see over Moscow. The question is how many losses will they sustain? Regardless, any move by Turkey is considered war and there would be cruise missiles raining down on them.

Quoting ThePointblank (Reply 288):
The Russians don't have that many cruise missiles... and the bulk of the Russian missile force is nuclear.

Source? How many do you think Russia needs to wipe out every single airbase and navy ship in Turkey? I think it's more than enough.
 
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scbriml
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RE: Russian Jet Allegedly Shot Down In Turkey

Sat Dec 05, 2015 11:53 pm

Quoting dfwjim1 (Reply 292):
What I find interesting in all this is that there have been no reported incursions by Russian aircraft into Turkish airspace since the shoot down occurred.

That's hardly surprising. For all Putin's posturing, once you've been very publicly bitch-slapped, you tend to fall into line.
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BMI727
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RE: Russian Jet Allegedly Shot Down In Turkey

Sun Dec 06, 2015 1:41 am

Quoting dfwjim1 (Reply 292):
What I find interesting in all this is that there have been no reported incursions by Russian aircraft into Turkish airspace
since the shoot down occurred.

Putin, like most bullies, doesn't like it much when his victims hit back.
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ThePointblank
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RE: Russian Jet Allegedly Shot Down In Turkey

Sun Dec 06, 2015 5:53 am

Quoting yyzala (Reply 293):
What experience does Turkey have?

Turkey is a regular participant in Red Flag, and is the lead on the annual Anatolian Eagle exercises. They've also participated in Deliberate Force and Allied Force. It is generally accepted that the Turkish military in general is an extremely competent and well trained military.

The Turkish Air Force is extremely well equipped and trained for EW; 4 Boeing 737 AEW with ESM capability, and a number of C-160 and CN-235 SIGNIT and ELINT aircraft. Turkey also has on hand Elta's EL/L-8222 jamming pods and Exelis' ALQ-211v9 pods as well. Beyond that, Turkey also operates the IAI Harpy anti-radar drone, and the land based KORAL jammer.

Quoting yyzala (Reply 293):
Source? How many do you think Russia needs to wipe out every single airbase and navy ship in Turkey? I think it's more than enough.

Look at the available launch platforms; the recent Russian cruise missile launches from sea was from 4 ships of the Caspian Sea Flotilla, namely of the Gepard-class frigate and Buyan-M class corvettes.

The Russians only have 2 Gepard-class frigates and 3 Buyan-M class corvettes equipped with the UKSK vertical launch system capable of fielding long-range cruise missiles; the Russian Black Seas Fleet has no ships equipped with the UKSK VLS, and the only ship in the Black Seas Fleet capable of launching long range land attack cruise missiles is a single Improved Kilo submarine. Other than that, it's the Russian Baltic fleet that is equipped, with only 1 frigate capable of launching land attack cruise missiles, and another 6 either under construction or under trials.

Other than that, the Russian Air Force has the Kh-55 missile, of which there are about 600, some of which are nuclear tipped, and it's replacement, the Kh-101, which is in limited production since 2013. Both are launched on the Tu-95MS and Tu-160 bombers, which the Russians only have 55 Tu-95MS and 11 Tu-160's operational.

The Russians indicated that they wanted 1,500 cruise missile engines a year, but it's doubtful NPO Saturn can deliver on that large a number of engines annually; for one, they are just restarting, or in some cases, starting production from scratch when previously, such engines came from Ukraine (and are now cut off).

Realistically, it is very difficult to keep airfields destroyed and out of commission; you are going to need more than just a couple dozen cruise missiles in a single strike to keep an airfield out of commission for the long run. You will need constant follow up attacks, targeting repair capabilities. And, you are looking at 8 airfields you will need to knock out, plus an additional 5 other military airfields. Best example of how difficult it takes to keep airfields destroyed is during Allied Force; the Serbs still managed to put up fighters, preserved their fighter jet strength, and conduct ground attack missions in Kosovo even after intensive NATO air attacks on their airbases. Of course, that all changes if you go the nuclear route, but that would invite a strategic nuclear exchange with the US and NATO, so I doubt Putin is crazy enough to go that route...

The Turkish Navy? Similar story. Looking at 7 bases, and you are also dealing with moving targets, which means, trying to find the Turkish Navy at sea... not a easy proposition especially when the Russians don't have direct access to the Mediterranean Sea.

In addition, remember this: Supressing air defences (SEAD) is a much easier task than destroying enemy air defences (DEAD). Look at Serbia during Operation Allied Force; NATO launched hundreds of HARM's and conducted countless SEAD missions and still wasn't able to fully destroy all of Serbia's air defence systems. Most of the attrition suffered by the Serbs was primarily old early warning radars, and static sites that could be hit with cruise missiles. The bigger problem they faced was the jamming of their radars, of which the Serbs had no capability to work around.

Russia's projection of force has dropped dramatically since the 1980's. The Russian Black Sea fleet isn't a very modern fleet in general, and of course, Turkey controls the Straits; they can shut down traffic very easily and the strait is easily defendable. Ask the British that if you doubt it.

And I wonder how you want to avoid dragging NATO and the US into the conflict; remember Article V of the NATO Treaty, and there is an extensive US presence co-located in a number of Turkish Air Force bases. Even if Article V isn't invoked, the solidarity of NATO will look bad if Turkey is being beaten up alone by Russia, which will pressure many NATO states to join in regardless. Losing NATO would be the worst foreign policy disaster in US history, which will force the US to respond as well.
 
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bikerthai
Posts: 4083
Joined: Wed Apr 28, 2010 1:45 pm

RE: Russian Jet Allegedly Shot Down In Turkey

Mon Dec 07, 2015 2:36 pm

Quoting yyzala (Reply 293):
Does NATO want a member who is running around doing things that hurts them in the long run?

They had to endure US action for decades 
Quoting yyzala (Reply 293):
Do the Turkish people want a leader like that?

If they don't, they can vote him out the next election. Same goes for Russia 
Quoting ThePointblank (Reply 296):
4 Boeing 737 AEW with ESM capability

Oh, now that you mentioned it. I bet the Peace Eye was keeping an eye on the whole incident the whole time. This would be the second country to operate the 737 AEW&C in real combat situation (after the Wedgetail operation in Iraq). Of course they probably also used the AEW&C to support their bombing campaign against the Kurds . . .

bt
Intelligent seeks knowledge. Enlightened seeks wisdom.
 
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ptrjong
Posts: 4123
Joined: Wed Mar 02, 2005 9:38 am

RE: Russian Jet Allegedly Shot Down In Turkey

Mon Dec 07, 2015 6:53 pm

Quoting bikerthai (Reply 297):
If they don't, they can vote him out the next election. Same goes for Russia

That's even more doubtful for Russia than for Turkey.
The only difference between me and a madman is that I am not mad (Salvador Dali)
 
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flyingturtle
Posts: 6160
Joined: Mon Oct 31, 2011 1:39 pm

RE: Russian Jet Allegedly Shot Down In Turkey

Mon Dec 07, 2015 9:16 pm

I wonder if it has already been posted... http://harpers.org/blog/2015/12/mountain-ambush/

Harper's Magazine talks with Pierre Sprey, one of the F-16 developers, about the Su-24 shootdown.

David
Reading accident reports is what calms me down
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