GDB wrote:

Aesma wrote:

I guess the SCAF/FCAS will be French only, then.

Don't see why, other F-35 users have projects going forward. This is for a specific need with some urgency.
They still have all those Typhoons to eventually replace, as France eventually will also need for Rafale.
Certainly the situation in Ukraine and the big changes in German defence policy has driven this forward, they might have picked it anyway but politically that would have been difficult.

Because they will sink dozens of billions in the F-35, and have no money left for anything else. And no urgency either, whereas there is more urgency for France now.

Just read that Pentagon is requesting 33 fewer F-35s next budget year. Wonder if these will be slotted to Germany so they can get their frames earlier. Also reduce the pressure for more pilot training. Gotta save those training slots for the German pilots.

bt

Aesma wrote:

GDB wrote:

Aesma wrote:

I guess the SCAF/FCAS will be French only, then.

Don't see why, other F-35 users have projects going forward. This is for a specific need with some urgency.
They still have all those Typhoons to eventually replace, as France eventually will also need for Rafale.
Certainly the situation in Ukraine and the big changes in German defence policy has driven this forward, they might have picked it anyway but politically that would have been difficult.

Because they will sink dozens of billions in the F-35, and have no money left for anything else. And no urgency either, whereas there is more urgency for France now.

So.. 600 million to a billion USD per aircraft? Again: that the nuclear sharing Tornados will be replaced with a US type has been clear for years. And the 35x F35 are going to be a good deal cheaper than 45x F18E/F/Gs plus B61 integration. So there is more money available for FCAS, even without considering the 400 or so billion EUR more that are going to be on the defense budget until 2040.

Best regards
Thomas

https://www.wiwo.de/unternehmen/industr ... 1647523092

Interesting article. Airbus believes the Tornados will be replaced on a 1:1 base and expects more EF Orders.

TheSonntag wrote:

https://www.wiwo.de/unternehmen/industrie/aufruestung-eurofighter-ein-weiteres-leben-fuer-den-totgesagten/28170528.html?social=facebook&utm_medium=social&utm_source=Facebook#Echobox=1647523092

Interesting article. Airbus believes the Tornados will be replaced on a 1:1 base and expects more EF Orders.

Unless the Luftwaffe is waiting to see how the F-35 performs in service. But since this deal predates the Russian CF, they both did not price more EFs into this order, and might have thought they might be able to weasel out of more airframes (a now by-gone notion.)

TheSonntag wrote:

https://www.wiwo.de/unternehmen/industrie/aufruestung-eurofighter-ein-weiteres-leben-fuer-den-totgesagten/28170528.html?social=facebook&utm_medium=social&utm_source=Facebook#Echobox=1647523092

Interesting article. Airbus believes the Tornados will be replaced on a 1:1 base and expects more EF Orders.

This is indeed the interesting part, I think this would mean more Tranche 4 "Quadriga" aircraft, which would make sense considering the recent developemnts in my opinion.

Looks like the Germans are expecting to have the first F-35 by 2025:

https://twitter.com/Team_Luftwaffe/stat ... 8597155841

Die #F35 wird den #Tornado ersetzen. Der neue Jet wird in den USA gebaut und genau dort erkundigte sich gestern der Inspekteur der Luftwaffe, Generalleutnant Ingo Gerhartz über die Abläufe. „Ich hoffe, dass wir die ersten Maschinen 2025 auf dem Hof stehen haben.“ @LockheedMartin

Translation:

The #F35 will replace the #Tornado . The new jet is being built in the USA, and that's where the Air Force Inspector, Lieutenant General Ingo Gerhartz, inquired about the processes yesterday. "I hope that we will have the first machines in the yard in 2025." @LockheedMartin

A further comment also indicates that the bulk of the order will be delivered from the Italian production line.

According an article in "der Spiegel" the German Luftwaffe will get about 40 Billion Euros of the 100 billion modernization funding:

"Luftstreitkräfte – 40,908 Milliarden Euro
Der größte Posten ist für die Luftwaffe vorgesehen, seit Jahren ein Sorgenkind der Truppe. Von den knapp 41 Milliarden Euro sollen neue Eurofighter und ein neuer Transporthubschrauber angeschafft werden. Zudem soll der altersschwache »Tornado« ersetzt werden, unter anderem durch F35-Jets aus den USA.

Die Kampfbomber aus den USA können ebenso wie der »Tornado« auch US-amerikanische Atombomben tragen. Hinzu kommen weitere Wünsche der Luftwaffe wie neue Seefernaufklärer, die Modernisierung der Luftverteidigung und das weltraumbasierte Frühwarnsystem »Twister« "

Deepl translates this to:

"Air force - 40.908 billion euros
The largest item is earmarked for the air force, for years a problem child of the force. Of the nearly 41 billion euros, new Eurofighters and a new transport helicopter are to be purchased. In addition, the ageing "Tornado" is to be replaced, among other things by F35 jets from the USA.

Like the Tornado, these U.S. fighter-bombers can also carry U.S. nuclear bombs. In addition, the Air Force has other wishes, such as new maritime reconnaissance aircraft, the modernization of air defense and the space-based "Twister" early warning system."

This article has some current info on the Eurofighter's Long Term Evolution plan, which seems to refer to platform updates available to all EF customers:
https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news ... ght-future

Not sure about the credibility of the info, but it looks like short-term updates mainly concern software for improved weapons capabilities, the German electronic warfare variant, and AESA radar integration.
Aerodynamic modification kit slated for 2027/2028.
Longer-term considerations include new cockpit interface and helmets.


Elsewhere I have read that engine upgrades are still being under consideration.

A recent report warns that both the F-35 and EF purchases might be scaled down due to financial difficulties.

"Since many projects run for five to seven years, inflation at the current magnitude creates a serious financial problem," said a person familiar with the proceedings. Among the projects on the back burner, he said, are [...] new Eurofighters for electronic warfare [...].

The acquisition of the F-35 fighter jet and the Chinook heavy transport helicopter are considered set. There is no turning back on the F-35, as the aircraft is considered indispensable for Germany's nuclear sharing. In addition, talks with the U.S. government on the acquisition of the aircraft from the manufacturer Lockheed Martin have already proceeded quite far.

However, the planned number of 35 F-35s is apparently up for discussion. One reason for this is that the German government calculated the purchase price with a dollar exchange rate of 1.1 to the euro, said a member of the governing coalition. The strong dollar makes imports from the USA more expensive. [...]

https://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/de ... 61788.html [German]

Ukraine has exposed just how useless 4 th gen AC are against even semi modern AD systems.

Planeflyer wrote:

Ukraine has exposed just how useless 4 th gen AC are against even semi modern AD systems.

Don't know about that. Even with a few 4th gen fighter and garage shop adapter for the HARMs, the Ukrainian is starting to peel back the semi modern AS system Russia fielded.

Sure, they can't fly high and can only make small sorties, but imagine what could be if they had full SEAD capabilities.

bt

It sounds like Germany is having a bit of buyer's remorse now that the Russians have been exposed for what they are. The economy hasn't changed "that" much in the last six months. A strong defense will temper any future Russian ambitions.

johns624 wrote:

The economy hasn't changed "that" much in the last six months.

Germany has been seeing 7-10% of inflation over the past year, with no sign of a return to "normal" levels in sight. On top of that, the exchange rate to USD has dropped by 10%.
Combine a sustained medium-to-high inflation over multiple years with a permanent devaluation of the Euro, and suddenly those €100B can only buy €70B worth of equipment (in terms of 2021 prices).

However, one should note that the proposed cuts don't just affect aviation; in fact most of them would affect the surface navy.

Training of course is critical but Ukraine only confirms what has been seen over and over recent red flag like exercises. 4th gen fighters have unacceptable combat losses against modern ad systems.

Think about Israel during Yom Kippir and the U S experience inVietnam. Both AF ‘s did not lack for training or flight time and suffered unsustainable losses.

Sure, an F4 is no match for modern 4th gen ac but missile Technolgy and electronics Have advanced dar more rapidly than ac technology.

Given Purim’s focus on Ukraine one wonders why they have not deployed their AF.

Many have suggested poor readiness but don’t discount that Russia Is holding back AC as they know full well that their best friend is their biggest risk and will need every pilot and ac if push ever comes to shove w China.

Planeflyer wrote:

...
Given Purim’s focus on Ukraine one wonders why they have not deployed their AF.
...

oh they have, you just might have missed it.
russian aviation message boards are full of stories of units sustaining losses higher than expected. Of pilots who make errors because of operational fatigue. Of "tired" kit. All that.
Look at recent losses. A few days ago, a plane from Chernigovka (that's near Vladivostok, on a border with China, and not far from North Korea) was successfully eliminated in Ukraine. That's the scraping of the barrel; maybe not the very bottom, but scraping nevertheless.

So yes, while russia might hold some stuff in reserve, they have deployed in some strength. Fortunately, good part of that strength is now scrap metal and organic fertilizer.

Ukraine has exposed just how useless 4 th gen AC are against even semi modern AD systems.

Though there is some truth to what you wrote, I do not think that it is that black and white. AS other have pointed out. The Russians are not exactly lavishly equipping or training their air forces over Ukraine.There really are no coordinated attacks, no mass, no counter measures. May of the aircraft are worn out and not well maintained and their pilots not well trained.

Sure stealth makes things a lot easier and can stack the odds in your favor but there is still plenty of room for modern, well trained 4.5 aircraft and aircrew on the battlefield. Not every target is going to be guarded by SA-400s and there are plenty of targets you can stand out of range of the AD and lob PGMS at.

I get it, unless you are in the market for new AC it may not make sense to scrap existing 4 th ac but if you are Germany or any other nation in an unstable area, then given the current cost of an F35 it simply makes no sense to expose your country to the risks of inferiority.

With all the advances taking place in electronics and drone technology air superiority has never been a more valuable deterrent.

I’m hoping the smart people in the AF and Navy shut downy more F18 and F15 buys and save the money for f35, ucav and 6 th gen programs.

Despite the poor performance exhibited by Russia so far Putin still has a lot of options to escalate w/o resorting to wmd. Don’t rule out boots on the ground from Syria, Iran, Belarus or NK.

mxaxai wrote:

johns624 wrote:

The economy hasn't changed "that" much in the last six months.

Germany has been seeing 7-10% of inflation over the past year, with no sign of a return to "normal" levels in sight. On top of that, the exchange rate to USD has dropped by 10%.
Combine a sustained medium-to-high inflation over multiple years with a permanent devaluation of the Euro, and suddenly those €100B can only buy €70B worth of equipment (in terms of 2021 prices).

However, one should note that the proposed cuts don't just affect aviation; in fact most of them would affect the surface navy.

Plus the fact that Germany is predicted to head into recession and a shrinking economy in 2023...
https://www.dw.com/en/economy-recession ... a-63444401

I get it, unless you are in the market for new AC it may not make sense to scrap existing 4 th ac but if you are Germany or any other nation in an unstable area, then given the current cost of an F35 it simply makes no sense to expose your country to the risks of inferiority.

For Germany it makes a lot of sense to continue buying Tiffies. It's a good 4.5gen plane that is superior to anything they are liable to come up against in Europe for the foreseeable future. Getting a small force of F-35s for nuclear deterrent also makes a lot of sense as they are needed to penetrate enemy airspace and actually drop iron (albeit nuclear) bombs. For the life of me I do not see Germany embarking on an offensive war. The Tiffies will do just fine playing defense and it supports their aerospace industry.

I’m hoping the smart people in the AF and Navy shut downy more F18 and F15 buys and save the money for f35, ucav and 6 th gen programs.

The AF and Navy have paid a huge price for waiting for the next best thing. What I wrote about Typhoon applies also to F-18s and F-15s. Perhaps less so the F-18 but that is because of it's lack of range which really is it's only deficiency now that the emphasis is on southeast Asia.They are both extremely potent and modern platforms able to cope with the vast majority of threats now and in the foreseeable future. They will also benefit from operating with a large force of F-35s and F-22s to help them break down the doors but they still have a huge role. F-35s cannot be built fast enough and you don't want to put all your fighter eggs in to one model.Right now the name of the game is numbers.

Typhoons, F15, F18 cost as much or more than F35 and will all waste the lives of front lines pilots which cannot be replaced in the timeframe needed.

Pick the mission and all these lose to The F35.

If we are smart we will instead invest in ucav’s tha can fight with and refuel F35’s.

Lastly, while a 4.5 gen ac may be most survivable in defensive mode flying over friendly territory this does not deter a prospective enemy anywhere near as much as ac that can counter strike into its territory .

Countries are invaded because the attacker see the rewards outweighing the risks. So far, thank goodness Putin miscalculated but Ukraine would be much better off if he hadn’t.

Ukraine just didn’t look prickly enough.

There’s a lesson for us.

Typhoons, F15, F1uch or more than F35 and will all waste the lives of front lines pilots which cannot be replaced in the timeframe needed.

While money should not be the sole arbiter of military procurement decisions I suggest you have a look at the following link which shows sustainment costs. It does an airforce no good if they cannot afford enough planes, keep them in the air, or provide their crew with training if they cannot afford to keep enough of them operational.

Pick the mission and all these lose to The F35.

There are more missions where a non stealth aircraft will get the job done than there are not. What happens when you have too many missions and not enough planes?

Lastly, while a 4.5 gen ac may be most survivable in defensive mode flying over friendly territory this does not deter a prospective enemy anywhere near as much as ac that can counter strike into its territory

You know this how?

Ukraine is a really really bad example. You had a corrupt government (yes Zelensky) coupled with provocative and frankly incompetent moves by the US administration.

I'm not anti stealth. Far from it but it is not needed in every instance and it is not affordable or realistic to have all stealth fleet. For a lot of reasons.

And, in most of those situations that don't call for stealth, you can use FAR cheaper airframes than any of the current 4.5 gen aircraft. A mix of F-35 and militarized T-7 red hawks or other current light fighters could cover all the low intensity conflicts you can think of while being sufficient for air policing. How much of the strike operations during the last 20+ years of the war on terror could have been done by something as cheap and simple as the militarized air tractors and super tucanos that are out there?

If you're talking about maximizing your value per flight hour, a light fighter plus F-35 mix seems likely to beat any mix of 4.5 gen fighters you can come up with, and if you throw a small fleet of cheap COIN plains in there, you can do even better.

Being seen puts you at risk of becoming a target. In Ukraine we are learning how easy it is to be seen.

Sensors and missile technology have advanced to the extent that even 4.9 gen AC can’t operate wo unsustainable losses.

Imagine if Ukraine had F35’s instead of MiG 29’s.

Following public criticism and internal discussion, a revised list of cut or deferred projects has been announced.

This list includes the previously already included surface navy cuts, and additionally omits the development of a new self-defence missile for submarines.
On the army side, self-propelled howitzers are now back on the list while light APCs have been cut.

For aviation, both the EF and F-35 as well as the CH-47 purchases are back on the list as initially planned. On the other hand, only 3 additional P-8 are now in the budget rather than the initial 7 (for a total fleet of now 8 rather than 12). In addition, the development and procurement of a mobile short-range UAV and cruise missile defence system for the army was removed.

Not all of these cuts are necessarily permanent, as there are other funds that could be used. But it most likely signals a delay to the affected projects.
https://augengeradeaus.net/2022/10/nach ... vermoegen/ [German]

mxaxai wrote:

Following public criticism and internal discussion, a revised list of cut or deferred projects has been announced.

This list includes the previously already included surface navy cuts, and additionally omits the development of a new self-defence missile for submarines.
On the army side, self-propelled howitzers are now back on the list while light APCs have been cut.

For aviation, both the EF and F-35 as well as the CH-47 purchases are back on the list as initially planned. On the other hand, only 3 additional P-8 are now in the budget rather than the initial 7 (for a total fleet of now 8 rather than 12). In addition, the development and procurement of a mobile short-range UAV and cruise missile defence system for the army was removed.

Not all of these cuts are necessarily permanent, as there are other funds that could be used. But it most likely signals a delay to the affected projects.
https://augengeradeaus.net/2022/10/nach ... vermoegen/ [German]

Has any funding besides that for the military been cut?

johns624 wrote:

Has any funding besides that for the military been cut?

Technically no funding has been cut. Instead, the additional €100B allocated earlier this year were simply found to be insufficient to cover everything the military initially wanted to buy.

The German government has approved funding for the development of a SEAD "Eurofighter EK" to replace the Tornado in this role, with contract signature for the upgrade (!) of 15 aircraft likely by end of the year. NATO certification of the variant is expected by ~2030. The EW suite will be supplied by Saab and integrated into the wingtips, missiles from NG.
https://www.flightglobal.com/defence/be ... 47.article

Later developments may add specialized and more powerful EW pods.