Planeflyer
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Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Sun Dec 02, 2018 3:01 am

Cmon, target drones w highly trained pilots offer almost zero deterrence.
 
Planeflyer
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Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Sun Dec 02, 2018 3:04 am

Cmon, target drones w highly trained pilots offer almost zero deterrence.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Sun Dec 02, 2018 11:46 am

The only reason is to meet NATO requirements on paper. So a certain number of planes for a certain role. But preferably not of a quality that NATO would actually ask for them.
 
tommy1808
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Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Mon Dec 03, 2018 7:11 am

Planeflyer wrote:
Cmon, target drones w highly trained pilots offer almost zero deterrence.


Outside the first couple of days of the Yom Kippur war we are yet to see any conflict in which SAMs are more than an inconvenience and had any shot to influence the outcome of that conflict.
There is no credible air to air thread anywhere with the exception of our allies.

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Ozair
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Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Mon Dec 03, 2018 11:09 am

tommy1808 wrote:
Outside the first couple of days of the Yom Kippur war we are yet to see any conflict in which SAMs are more than an inconvenience and had any shot to influence the outcome of that conflict.

Disagree on the inconvenience. GW1 was a good example of a SAM threat that persisted and impacted operations. The first week saw seven aircraft downed by SAMs, two SA-2Es, one SA-3, One SA-6, one MANPADS and two undetermined SAMs. In the month that followed another 18 aircraft were shot down by various SAMs, ranging from MANPADS to SA-9 and 13 and numerous undetermined. The above losses are listed here http://www.rjlee.org/air/ds-aaloss/

While IR SAMS were the most significant factor in the later weeks of the air conflict aircraft were still being targeted and lost to radar guided SAMs over a month after the air war started.

I don't think any anti-air campaign has influenced the outcome of a conflict including Yom Kippur.

tommy1808 wrote:
There is no credible air to air thread anywhere with the exception of our allies.

Agree with this, certainly nothing that could realistically challenge Coalition/NATO air supremacy.
 
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Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Mon Dec 03, 2018 11:30 am

Ozair wrote:
Disagree on the inconvenience.


I meant it specifically in the "can change the outcome" way of inconvenience.

I don't think any anti-air campaign has influenced the outcome of a conflict including Yom Kippur.


Exactly. Yom Kippur may have become one, as the IDFs air support was fairly ineffective in the first days due to the SA-6 surprise. Alas ways to neutralize them where found rather quickly....

Agree with this, certainly nothing that could realistically challenge Coalition/NATO air supremacy.


Yeah, and probably not for a long time to come, and by the time someone can challenge that, it won´t be Russia, but rather China.

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Thomas
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Ozair
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Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Mon Dec 03, 2018 8:28 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
Ozair wrote:
Disagree on the inconvenience.


I meant it specifically in the "can change the outcome" way of inconvenience.

Okay, that makes sense and is clearer.

It is a difficult question to answer as to whether anti-air campaigns could realistically change an outcome. Considering the Balkans conflict, where the US spent vast sums of money protecting air assests from air defences. IIRC they launched over 750 HARMs at targets when clearly there were not that many Serb radars to target. That threat environement meant every Coalition operating window was covered with SEAD aircraft from start to finish, as well as EA-6Bs while a RAND study concluded that NATO never succeeded in actually neutralising the Radar guided SAM threat. https://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/MR1365.html
 
Planeflyer
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Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Tue Dec 04, 2018 10:04 am

The Vietnamese and the US pilots that flew there would strongly disagree with the above assessments.

And since then 4th gen AC have made only incremental gains against SAMs whereas missiles routinely intercept other missiles.

5 th gen is a paradigm shift against SAM systems and to borrow a phrase anyone who ignores this does so at their own peril.
 
rheinwaldner
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Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Tue Dec 04, 2018 4:25 pm

Planeflyer wrote:
And since then 4th gen AC have made only incremental gains against SAMs whereas missiles routinely intercept other missiles.

You forgot the beeka valley. 3rd gen AC knocked down 100% of a massive SAM defence at 0% loss rate.
Many things are difficult, all things are possible!
 
Planeflyer
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Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Wed Dec 05, 2018 4:55 am

rheinwaldner wrote:
Planeflyer wrote:
And since then 4th gen AC have made only incremental gains against SAMs whereas missiles routinely intercept other missiles.

You forgot the beeka valley. 3rd gen AC knocked down 100% of a massive SAM defence at 0% loss rate.



Ok fair I didn’t forget it but also understand that The Beeka valley is not comparable to what is in place today.

And Israel is buying F35’s to deal with current SAM systems
 
tommy1808
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Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Wed Dec 05, 2018 5:52 am

Planeflyer wrote:
rheinwaldner wrote:
Planeflyer wrote:
And since then 4th gen AC have made only incremental gains against SAMs whereas missiles routinely intercept other missiles.

You forgot the beeka valley. 3rd gen AC knocked down 100% of a massive SAM defence at 0% loss rate.



Ok fair I didn’t forget it but also understand that The Beeka valley is not comparable to what is in place today.


In deed, no one can afford to dot the landscape with that density of SAMs batteries these days...

And Israel is buying F35’s to deal with current SAM systems


Israel is buying F35. End of story. They buy all modern US fighters the moment they can.Look when they got their F15 and F16.

best regards
Thomas
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Planeflyer
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Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Wed Dec 05, 2018 11:07 am

Tommy, but they are buying F35’s and they know a fair bit up contested environments.

If they had not committed to the F35 your argument which essentially rests the idea that it is overkill would have some merit.

Germany because they are part of NATO can live w/o the F35 but w/o it they will depend on others who have it untill air defenses are degraded such that 4 th gen ac can operate

But Israel, who can least afford to make a mistake
 
vr773
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Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Wed Dec 05, 2018 3:22 pm

Let's do shots every time Planeflyer says "contested environment" ;)

Here is a hypothetical I was thinking about today: let's say Germany decides that it is indeed really important to get a bunch of F-35s to have the ability to drop bombs on Russian soil and let's also make the wild assumption that the F-35 is actually a fairly risk-free option to do so for years to come. -> What would be the earliest time Germany would actually be able to operate them to do that? Let's be super optimistic and say 2023. Let's also assume that this purchase wouldn't kill the FCAS program. What's the earliest time they would get those 6th gen systems? Let's say 2040.
If that's true, you're essentially asking the German taxpayer to pay $5+ billion just so that you're able to engage in a highly unlikely WW3 scenario for a time span of only 17 years. That would be politically and fiscally insane.
 
bigjku
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Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Wed Dec 05, 2018 4:05 pm

vr773 wrote:
Let's do shots every time Planeflyer says "contested environment" ;)

Here is a hypothetical I was thinking about today: let's say Germany decides that it is indeed really important to get a bunch of F-35s to have the ability to drop bombs on Russian soil and let's also make the wild assumption that the F-35 is actually a fairly risk-free option to do so for years to come. -> What would be the earliest time Germany would actually be able to operate them to do that? Let's be super optimistic and say 2023. Let's also assume that this purchase wouldn't kill the FCAS program. What's the earliest time they would get those 6th gen systems? Let's say 2040.
If that's true, you're essentially asking the German taxpayer to pay $5+ billion just so that you're able to engage in a highly unlikely WW3 scenario for a time span of only 17 years. That would be politically and fiscally insane.


FCAS won’t be in service in 2040 if they start today.

Eurofighter establishes a program office in 1986 for a fighter that entered service in 2003 that only did air to air. That’s 17 years so that is 2035 at best. Th Tranche 2 aircraft with a limited ground attack capability didn’t show up until 2013 so that is 27 years.

Eurofighter partners were fully defined in 1986. Any new fighter hasn’t even reached that stage yet.

Moreover you propose to skip a generation of both airframe and engine development and just hand waived away any issues with that. And then there is hope the thing will be ready to go in a timeframe comparable to the relatively unambtious Eurofighter?
 
tommy1808
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Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Wed Dec 05, 2018 6:00 pm

Planeflyer wrote:
If they had not committed to the F35 your argument which essentially rests the idea that it is overkill would have some merit.

Germany because they are part of NATO can live w/o the F35 but w/o it they will depend on others who have it untill air defenses are degraded such that 4 th gen ac can operate


When they got the F15 it was overkill too.

But Israel, who can least afford to make a mistake


Israel got ~200 nukes. The notion of them facing any conventional existential threat is no more realistic than someone seriously invading Russia or the US.

You know what the least survivable air asset in a contested environment is? Helicopters! They are slow, can't pull g's and have a radar return that is extremely distinct and pretty large. Yet every military is buying them, even those banking in stealth.
What was the last contested airspace helicopters operated in? The no-fly zone over Libya in 2011. The government used them quite a lot to ferry troops around and to attack rebels. So how many did they lose in that contested environment, enforced by the best fighters you can get his side of the F22, that had absolute air supremacy and could pick them off with impunity, had high PK weapons and about the best radars you can put on a higher? None. So many. Talking about non-stealthy aircraft being target drones....

bigjku wrote:
Eurofighter establishes a program office in 1986 for a fighter that entered service in 2003 that only did air to air. That’s 17 years so that is 2035 at best. Th Tranche 2 aircraft with a limited ground attack capability didn’t show up until 2013 so that is 27 years.


Multirole capabilities where added in 1992, where they design was also made bigger and heavier.

Eurofighter partners were fully defined in 1986. Any new fighter hasn’t even reached that stage yet.


However, the who, what, where and how many was not sattled before 1997.

And then there is hope the thing will be ready to go in a timeframe comparable to the relatively unambtious Eurofighter?


I think being more cost efficient in the air2air role than the F22 was in itself a quite ambitious goal, even if they airframe was just state of the art.

Moreover you propose to skip a generation of both airframe and engine development and just hand waived away any issues with that.


The Eurofighter was build by four nations, 3 had not developed an air superiority fighter in decades and one had developed a version with BVR missiles of a strike/interdiction aircraft....

vr773 wrote:
Let's do shots every time Planeflyer says "contested environment" ;)


Prost!

Best regards
Thomas
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mxaxai
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Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Tue Dec 11, 2018 5:25 pm

angad84 wrote:
Just spoke to a mate at one of the EF partner companies. Apparently the centreline was the easiest to integrate Litening, because it uses a pretty standard pylon. Putting it on one of the BVRAAM stations would have required some very complex engineering, because the recessed station dia is smaller than a Litening, and they would have to create a new bit of mounting hardware to either keep it flush (or thereabouts) or hold it out away from the fuselage. Airframe masking is an interesting point, but I hadn't seen these posts before I spoke to him, so didn't think to ask.

Anyway, centreline with two bags should suffice for most use cases. Just found it interesting that there is no planet on which a Typhoon can do self-designated A2G precision strike with three tanks. I guess they could do the work if someone funded it, but right now it looks like whoever is buying is fine with the centre station.

Just a follow-up on this:
The new Lockheed Sniper ATP, that will be equipped first on the Kuwaiti Eurofighters, was recently flight-tested in Germany. It too was mounted on the centreline pylon. It seems that they're okay with that position.
Apparently, all partner nations are involved in testing the Sniper, so we might see it as a standard feature on Block 4 Eurofighters (if that happens). I don't think all Block 3B EFs are delivered with it, though.
 
bigjku
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Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Tue Dec 11, 2018 6:04 pm

I think being more cost efficient in the air2air role than the F22 was in itself a quite ambitious goal, even if they airframe was just state of the art.


I don’t think you can say it’s more cost efficient as an air to air fighter. It’s cheaper. But efficiency has a performance metric to it. In combat against a relative peer (say someone with SU-35’s or any other advanced Flanker variant) I would expect the EF to come off better but on something like a 2 or 3 to 1 basis. While the F-22 I would expect to push more towards 10-1 or likely as not get a clean sweep.

And that is in the air defense role. If you want to strike at someone I don’t expect the EF to do much better than 1 to 1 if it’s required to act offensively in contested airspace with SAMs in the area. That isn’t a knock on it, it’s just the reality of the situation for any non low observable plane.
 
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zululima
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Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Wed Dec 12, 2018 4:05 am

bigjku wrote:
I don’t think you can say it’s more cost efficient as an air to air fighter. It’s cheaper. But efficiency has a performance metric to it. In combat against a relative peer (say someone with SU-35’s or any other advanced Flanker variant) I would expect the EF to come off better but on something like a 2 or 3 to 1 basis. While the F-22 I would expect to push more towards 10-1 or likely as not get a clean sweep.


It's hard to say what a "relative peer" conflict would produce, but if the F-15, after 40 years service, had a kill ratio of 104 to 0, I wouldn't expect the F-22 to take any non-flukey losses. Maybe you could get one in a fubar dogfight/melee, or sneak up on an airbase while one is landing, a-la Me-262 kills by prop fighters, but the majority will survive until they alone dominate the battlespace. Stealth is the ultimate cost-effectiveness in our era.
I didn't get a 'Harumph' outta that guy!
 
Planeflyer
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Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Wed Dec 12, 2018 5:05 am

zululima wrote:
bigjku wrote:
I don’t think you can say it’s more cost efficient as an air to air fighter. It’s cheaper. But efficiency has a performance metric to it. In combat against a relative peer (say someone with SU-35’s or any other advanced Flanker variant) I would expect the EF to come off better but on something like a 2 or 3 to 1 basis. While the F-22 I would expect to push more towards 10-1 or likely as not get a clean sweep.


It's hard to say what a "relative peer" conflict would produce, but if the F-15, after 40 years service, had a kill ratio of 104 to 0, I wouldn't expect the F-22 to take any non-flukey losses. Maybe you could get one in a fubar dogfight/melee, or sneak up on an airbase while one is landing, a-la Me-262 kills by prop fighters, but the majority will survive until they alone dominate the battlespace. Stealth is the ultimate cost-effectiveness in our era

In nothing is more cost effective than deterrence and the bad guys who do everything to be omnipotent to their population just hate it when their airspace and strategic assets are attacked w impunity.

Stealth and precision weapons make offensive operations in contested airspace( yeah, I get that some of you hate this term but if you’re honest w yourself your unease is testament to truth of the term) possible.
 
tommy1808
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Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Wed Dec 12, 2018 9:50 am

bigjku wrote:
I think being more cost efficient in the air2air role than the F22 was in itself a quite ambitious goal, even if they airframe was just state of the art.


I don’t think you can say it’s more cost efficient as an air to air fighter. It’s cheaper. But efficiency has a performance metric to it. .


The UK stuck with the Eurofighter because of cost efficiency, not price. The EF was estimated to win 5:1, the F22 9:1 for 60 to 100% higher price, making the Eurofighter 89 - 112% as cost efficient.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/d ... 31137.html

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Planeflyer
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Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Wed Dec 12, 2018 1:07 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
bigjku wrote:
I think being more cost efficient in the air2air role than the F22 was in itself a quite ambitious goal, even if they airframe was just state of the art.


I don’t think you can say it’s more cost efficient as an air to air fighter. It’s cheaper. But efficiency has a performance metric to it. .


The UK stuck with the Eurofighter because of cost efficiency, not price. The EF was estimated to win 5:1, the F22 9:1 for 60 to 100% higher price, making the Eurofighter 89 - 112% as cost efficient.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/d ... 31137.html

best regards
Thomas



Seriously, the article you linked is from 1992. The UK is stuck with the EF because of head in the sand, legacy thinking. Western allies by now are very familar with Red Flag results and know full well what current loss would be for 4th gen and 5th gen ac. If those rates were anything close to what the article states many fewer nations would be adopting the F35.
 
mxaxai
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Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Mon Dec 17, 2018 5:03 pm

Some news on the role Airbus envisions for the FCAS and its pilots:
FCAS Battle Lab makes Air Power Vision tangible
Image
The upgraded Future Combat Air System Battle Lab in Manching is now fully operational. Four new fighter cockpit mockups, equipped with a central panoramic display inspired by the New Generation Fighter cockpit design, have been integrated.

"The Battle Lab simulates complex war gaming scenarios which allows the prototyping of FCAS capabilities, encompassing various manned and unmanned aerial systems operating together in the air, with reach to other domains such as surface, space and cyber," explains the Programme Manager FCAS/ NGWS for Military Aircraft. "A Future Combat Air System will rely less on single platform capabilities, but rather more on the results of a networked and collaborative approach. As such, the Battle Lab will be an essential tool to develop and assess the effectiveness of teaming and its required assistance systems, X-Platform data generation and fusion, as well as the acceleration of decision-making in active troops."
The Integration Manager Digital Engineering & Virtualization adds: "The Battle Lab, with the Airbus Simulation Framework as the backbone, provides a standardised simulation environment to prototype and rehearse the integration and connectivity among these systems. Moreover, it is a common engineering environment for the modelling of individual systems and their interactions in realistic operational scenarios. This includes human machine interface concepts, advanced pilot assist systems and various research and development projects."

Future fighter pilots as battlefield managers
A test pilot sees the advantages of the lab from a fighter pilot perspective: "In the future, pilots will act more as battlefield managers compared to the classical warfighter role today. In this context there are two key questions. Firstly, how will we fight tomorrow's air war? And, secondly, how will we enable a pilot to process the massive amount of information he is confronted with? All of this while managing numerous assets such as remote carriers, other manned fighters and sensors and effectors from other assets. The Battle Lab helps to answer both!"
"The importance of the Battle Lab will increase rapidly with the FCAS project evolving". Indeed, Airbus and Dassault, together with selected suppliers will perform a joint FCAS concept study with contracts expected to be signed in January 2019. "The lab will also be used to develop key features of the Eurofighter Long Term Evolution programme," he adds.
 
vr773
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Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Thu Jan 31, 2019 9:03 pm

The BMVg just announced what they had initially planned to announce in December. The replacement for 85 Panavia Tornados that are still in use will either be the Eurofighter or the F/A-18. This means that the F-35 is not being considered anymore.
Separately, the Bundewehr is planning to replace 33 of their tranche 1 Eurofighters with tranche 4 Eurofighters. There isn't much reporting on this yet but here is a source: https://www.zdf.de/nachrichten/heute/-tornado--nachfolger-gesucht-ministerium-prueft-kauf-von-f-100.html
 
vr773
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Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Thu Jan 31, 2019 9:11 pm

As I predicted a couple of months ago, government coalition party SPD just published a statement that they intend to block any purchase from a US manufacturer: https://www.sueddeutsche.de/politik/ruestungspolitik-die-spd-will-nicht-bei-trump-kaufen-1.4311002
 
Ozair
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Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Thu Jan 31, 2019 11:10 pm

vr773 wrote:
The BMVg just announced what they had initially planned to announce in December. The replacement for 85 Panavia Tornados that are still in use will either be the Eurofighter or the F/A-18. This means that the F-35 is not being considered anymore.
Separately, the Bundewehr is planning to replace 33 of their tranche 1 Eurofighters with tranche 4 Eurofighters. There isn't much reporting on this yet but here is a source: https://www.zdf.de/nachrichten/heute/-tornado--nachfolger-gesucht-ministerium-prueft-kauf-von-f-100.html


A not unexpected decision to pursue the Eurofighter but the decision to short list the Super Hornet probably wasn’t done with any serious consideration. The current nuclear weapon being rolled out is the B61-12 which was trialled on the Tornado but as far as I am aware is not slated for integration onto the Super Hornet by the USN…

An interesting paragraph from the second article you linked, via Google translate

If the government ultimately chooses the F-18, that would be a compromise in some ways: In terms of technology, this F-18 model ranks between Eurofighter and F-35. It could play the role of a transitional model until Germany and France have developed their aviator of the future.


Either way, the F-35 was probably the best option for Germany going forward (from a nuclear delivery perspective) and I have little doubt the preference of the Luftwaffe but more Eurofighters makes a lot of sense to a German Government struggling to survive and an economy sliding into recession.

I’m not sure the Super Hornet will ever arrive in German colours, the greater likelihood is Germany leaving Nuclear sharing via some internal political agreement than potentially acquiring that airframe.
 
vr773
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Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Fri Feb 01, 2019 1:10 am

Ozair wrote:
A not unexpected decision to pursue the Eurofighter but the decision to short list the Super Hornet probably wasn’t done with any serious consideration. The current nuclear weapon being rolled out is the B61-12 which was trialled on the Tornado but as far as I am aware is not slated for integration onto the Super Hornet by the USN…

An interesting paragraph from the second article you linked, via Google translate

"If the government ultimately chooses the F-18, that would be a compromise in some ways: In terms of technology, this F-18 model ranks between Eurofighter and F-35. It could play the role of a transitional model until Germany and France have developed their aviator of the future."


Whether the F-18 is more advanced than the Eurofighter or vice versa depends on what you zoom in on.
The F-35 was an impossible choice politically and I think it's likely that the reason why the F-18 made the cut is its SEAD + E-warfare capability which is a capability that Germany would like to keep. But the Eurofighter could be developed in that regard.

Ozair wrote:
Either way, the F-35 was probably the best option for Germany going forward (from a nuclear delivery perspective) and I have little doubt the preference of the Luftwaffe but more Eurofighters makes a lot of sense to a German Government struggling to survive and an economy sliding into recession.

I’m not sure the Super Hornet will ever arrive in German colours, the greater likelihood is Germany leaving Nuclear sharing via some internal political agreement than potentially acquiring that airframe.


The German government is pretty stable and the macroeconomic value of building Eurofighters is minimal.

Individuals have preferences, large organizations only when all of its leaders share the same opinion. This just goes to say that I highly doubt that 'the Luftwaffe" as such has a preference.

In my opinion, the real reason that the F-35 was a non-starter is the political and military cooperation that is envisioned between Germany and France, of which the FCAS is one of many joint projects. Macron and Merkel just signed the Aachen Treaty a couple of days ago; any disruption at this point in time could have been interpreted as Germany not taking the treaty seriously.

I can't comment on the likelihood of the F-18 purchase happening but it could be developed to carry the bomb, just like the Eurofighter, but probably a little bit faster.
 
Ozair
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Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Fri Feb 01, 2019 1:53 am

vr773 wrote:

The F-35 was an impossible choice politically and I think it's likely that the reason why the F-18 made the cut is its SEAD + E-warfare capability which is a capability that Germany would like to keep. But the Eurofighter could be developed in that regard.


vr773 wrote:
In my opinion, the real reason that the F-35 was a non-starter is the political and military cooperation that is envisioned between Germany and France, of which the FCAS is one of many joint projects. Macron and Merkel just signed the Aachen Treaty a couple of days ago; any disruption at this point in time could have been interpreted as Germany not taking the treaty seriously.

How do those comments make sense though? Is the F-35 somehow more politically US than the Super Hornet? The irony is the F-35 not only has far more European content but also has a manufacturing line located in Europe...

I get the protectionist line about FCAS but if Germany and France see the F-35 as a threat to FCAS then the project is doomed before it begins.
 
vr773
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Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Fri Feb 01, 2019 2:17 am

Yes, announcing the possibility of an F-35 purchase at this point is likely considered to be the riskier move politically. I can only speculate why. Perhaps because it would cause a greater media reaction (in Germany, France, and the US) and Merkel’s and vdL’s advisors may pursue the strategy of keeping this away from the public eye as much as possible.

It’s quite possible that they don’t intend to buy anything but the Eurofighter but, again for political reasons, have to keep at least one US option in play.
 
Ozair
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Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Fri Feb 01, 2019 2:29 am

vr773 wrote:
Yes, announcing the possibility of an F-35 purchase at this point is likely considered to be the riskier move politically. I can only speculate why. Perhaps because it would cause a greater media reaction (in Germany, France, and the US) and Merkel’s and vdL’s advisors may pursue the strategy of keeping this away from the public eye as much as possible.

It’s quite possible that they don’t intend to buy anything but the Eurofighter but, again for political reasons, have to keep at least one US option in play.

That probably only works until Top Gun Maverick is released next year, likely before Germany could order the Super Hornet if they are going to, and is an international hit (unlikely...) at which point everyone will all know about Maverick and the Super Hornet and how good it is.

On a serious note, the average German almost certainly doesn’t have any idea of the F-35 and Super Hornet, they will likely both simply be seen as US aircraft that aren’t made in Germany and there would be no difference politically acquiring one over the other. I’d almost go as far as to say dress all three (f-35, SH and Eurofighter) up in Luftwaffe markings and the average German would be unlikely to tell the difference.
 
bobinthecar
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Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Fri Feb 01, 2019 4:42 am

Germany is going to buy nothing but Eurofighters and as few of them as possible as well. If they really want a nuclear capable plane they will buy a few Rafales. By the time they get FCAS, if they even get FCAS the F-35 will be as embedded in the worlds Air Forces as the F-16 is today and the F-35 will be fully mature and modernized. The market will be pitifully small and the plane hideously expensive.Welcome to irrelevance.
 
tommy1808
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Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Fri Feb 01, 2019 7:18 am

Ozair wrote:
I get the protectionist line about FCAS but if Germany and France see the F-35 as a threat to FCAS then the project is doomed before it begins.


It is not a threat in that sense. Having 5th Gen. fighters on the parking lot will reduce the number of FCAS, but since R&D will very likely be a lot more expensive per Unit than actually building it, wont reduce coat.

We'd be perfectly fine to pay twice the price for an FCAS that is designed, build and the technology owned by German, France, and seemingly Spain, but reducing the number will drive that up quite a bit because export markets are likely small.

For an F18 it would be easy to make the case to park it after 20 years, for an F35 not so much.

Best regards
Thomas
This Singature is a safe space......
 
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seahawk
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Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Fri Feb 01, 2019 7:35 am

With the economy falling to pieces, nothing will be bought.
 
tommy1808
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Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Fri Feb 01, 2019 8:10 am

seahawk wrote:
With the economy falling to pieces, nothing will be bought.


You do realize that such talk, that is in no way based on any reality, can *make* an economic crisis if just enough people talk like that, right?

best regards
Thomas
This Singature is a safe space......
 
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seahawk
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Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Fri Feb 01, 2019 8:15 am

tommy1808 wrote:
seahawk wrote:
With the economy falling to pieces, nothing will be bought.


You do realize that such talk, that is in no way based on any reality, can *make* an economic crisis if just enough people talk like that, right?

best regards
Thomas


It already has begun. By the time a contract would be signed, the situation will not allow a contract for fighters to be signed. And this time things will be ugly, as most instruments to be used in a crisis are no longer available. You can no longer lower interest rates as they are zero already, you can not increase government spending as the debt is already too high.
 
tommy1808
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Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Fri Feb 01, 2019 8:31 am

seahawk wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
seahawk wrote:
With the economy falling to pieces, nothing will be bought.


You do realize that such talk, that is in no way based on any reality, can *make* an economic crisis if just enough people talk like that, right?

best regards
Thomas


It already has begun. By the time a contract would be signed, the situation will not allow a contract for fighters to be signed. And this time things will be ugly, as most instruments to be used in a crisis are no longer available. You can no longer lower interest rates as they are zero already, you can not increase government spending as the debt is already too high.


That ain´t even Bullsh*t, that is Horsesh*t...

The only thing that creates a crisis is lack of confidence. No money was ever lost in any crisis ever. It is always people like you that create them by being all "oh my god, i better sit on my money"..

best regards
Thomas
This Singature is a safe space......
 
Noray
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Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Fri Feb 01, 2019 8:38 am

seahawk wrote:
With the economy falling to pieces, nothing will be bought.

A few a weeks ago we learned from the internet that Germany is such a rich country that neglects its security since it only spends 1.2% of the GNP on defence. Now, according to the internet, the economy is falling into pieces. This will assure that we reach the 2% target simply by reducing the GNP, and, although nothing will be bought, will finally turn us into valued partners. ;)
 
WIederling
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Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Fri Feb 01, 2019 8:54 am

Ozair wrote:
I get the protectionist line about FCAS but if Germany and France see the F-35 as a threat to FCAS then the project is doomed before it begins.


The F-35 is AFAICS, Independent of foreign non US content, a closed black box system.
Totally over a barrel towards the US:

A no go.
Murphy is an optimist
 
vr773
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Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Fri Feb 01, 2019 10:50 am

Ozair wrote:
On a serious note, the average German almost certainly doesn’t have any idea of the F-35 and Super Hornet, they will likely both simply be seen as US aircraft that aren’t made in Germany and there would be no difference politically acquiring one over the other. I’d almost go as far as to say dress all three (f-35, SH and Eurofighter) up in Luftwaffe markings and the average German would be unlikely to tell the difference.


That’s true for the average German but my point referred to about how public opinion gets built. And right now the headlines are “Germany says no to F-35”. The fact that the super hornet is still in the mix is not the eye-catcher and likely won’t spark the public debate the F-35 would have sparked.
 
queb
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Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Fri Feb 01, 2019 12:28 pm

Germany Weighs Purchase of 45 Boeing-Made F/A-18 Warplanes

https://www.wsj.com/articles/germany-we ... 1548973494

What a SH can do that a Typhoon can't?
 
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seahawk
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Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Fri Feb 01, 2019 12:31 pm

Growler.
 
queb
Posts: 1012
Joined: Tue Jun 01, 2010 3:10 am

Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Fri Feb 01, 2019 12:46 pm

seahawk wrote:
Growler.


I don't think Germans asked for a carrier-based electronic warfare aircraft.
Last edited by queb on Fri Feb 01, 2019 12:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
queb
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Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Fri Feb 01, 2019 12:47 pm

error
 
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seahawk
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Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Fri Feb 01, 2019 1:06 pm

queb wrote:
seahawk wrote:
Growler.


I don't think Germans asked for a carrier-based electronic warfare aircraft.


But a replacement for the ECR Tornados.
 
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Slug71
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Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Fri Feb 01, 2019 3:25 pm

No surprise about the F-35. A little surprised by the F/A-18 though. I thought it would be between the Eurofighter and Rafale.
 
Planeflyer
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Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Fri Feb 01, 2019 4:00 pm

So much for offensive air operations from a NATO partner.
 
Ozair
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Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Sun Feb 03, 2019 8:45 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
Ozair wrote:
I get the protectionist line about FCAS but if Germany and France see the F-35 as a threat to FCAS then the project is doomed before it begins.


It is not a threat in that sense. Having 5th Gen. fighters on the parking lot will reduce the number of FCAS, but since R&D will very likely be a lot more expensive per Unit than actually building it, wont reduce coat.

We'd be perfectly fine to pay twice the price for an FCAS that is designed, build and the technology owned by German, France, and seemingly Spain, but reducing the number will drive that up quite a bit because export markets are likely small.

For an F18 it would be easy to make the case to park it after 20 years, for an F35 not so much.

Best regards
Thomas

I get the dev stuff but to claim that because a SH is less tech it could be retired earlier as a potential reason is crazy talk. The Luftwaffe would be crazy to accept that compromise, get a lower tech less survivable jet because it will hopefully make it easier to buy enough of a new jet which is at least 20 years away (and may never arrive)…

vr773 wrote:

That’s true for the average German but my point referred to about how public opinion gets built. And right now the headlines are “Germany says no to F-35”. The fact that the super hornet is still in the mix is not the eye-catcher and likely won’t spark the public debate the F-35 would have sparked.

Again I don’t agree. If the Germans do end up acquiring the SH, which I think we can all agree is almost certainly an outside chance anyway, why wouldn’t the public debate extend to why the other possible US aircraft was eliminated despite it being cheaper to acquire and operate, more survivable in the battlespace and more interoperable with allied partners… You don’t think Der Spiegel would run a story like that?

If anything value for money and overall capability would be the two most important points to a German taxpayer, that they are getting good value for their tax dollars and a capability that will ensure their national defence force has the ability to operate effectively in the future battlespace.

With the SH they get neither…
 
Planeflyer
Posts: 1405
Joined: Fri Mar 14, 2014 3:49 am

Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Sun Feb 03, 2019 10:48 pm

There is another element to this that I don’t think has been discussed which is the tendency in Germany for selecting the tried and true option.

If memory serves didn’t they place the F4 into service as they were being retired by many early adopters?

Not sure what if any role this played in the decision but thought it worth mentioning.
 
Planeflyer
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Joined: Fri Mar 14, 2014 3:49 am

Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Sun Feb 03, 2019 10:52 pm

Ozair wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
Ozair wrote:
I get the protectionist line about FCAS but if Germany and France see the F-35 as a threat to FCAS then the project is doomed before it begins.


It is not a threat in that sense. Having 5th Gen. fighters on the parking lot will reduce the number of FCAS, but since R&D will very likely be a lot more expensive per Unit than actually building it, wont reduce coat.

We'd be perfectly fine to pay twice the price for an FCAS that is designed, build and the technology owned by German, France, and seemingly Spain, but reducing the number will drive that up quite a bit because export markets are likely small.

For an F18 it would be easy to make the case to park it after 20 years, for an F35 not so much.

Best regards
Thomas

I get the dev stuff but to claim that because a SH is less tech it could be retired earlier as a potential reason is crazy talk. The Luftwaffe would be crazy to accept that compromise, get a lower tech less survivable jet because it will hopefully make it easier to buy enough of a new jet which is at least 20 years away (and may never arrive)…

vr773 wrote:

That’s true for the average German but my point referred to about how public opinion gets built. And right now the headlines are “Germany says no to F-35”. The fact that the super hornet is still in the mix is not the eye-catcher and likely won’t spark the public debate the F-35 would have sparked.

Again I don’t agree. If the Germans do end up acquiring the SH, which I think we can all agree is almost certainly an outside chance anyway, why wouldn’t the public debate extend to why the other possible US aircraft was eliminated despite it being cheaper to acquire and operate, more survivable in the battlespace and more interoperable with allied partners… You don’t think Der Spiegel would run a story like that?

If anything value for money and overall capability would be the two most important points to a German taxpayer, that they are getting good value for their tax dollars and a capability that will ensure their national defence force has the ability to operate effectively in the future battlespace.

With the SH they get neither…


What are the partner countries doing differently to ensure that fcas doesn’t turn out like other similar programs?
 
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keesje
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Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Sun Feb 03, 2019 11:50 pm

This selection wouldn’t come as a total surprise when you look at the requirements of the Luftwaffe.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
Ozair
Posts: 4178
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Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Mon Feb 04, 2019 1:24 am

Planeflyer wrote:

What are the partner countries doing differently to ensure that fcas doesn’t turn out like other similar programs?

Too earlier to say yet. It looks very similar to how the EF/Rafale saga started although at least this time they only have two dominant partners so it may be easier to work things out between them (until both offer partners workshare for orders...).

Note that there are still no approved requirements for FCAS. No one has sat down and actually defined what they want the jet, and associated systems, to do in the detail that allows Airbus/Dassault to actually develop an aircraft. The current next step is simply for both parties to develop demonstrators and see where things go.

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