Ozair
Posts: 3790
Joined: Mon Jan 31, 2005 8:38 am

Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Thu May 16, 2019 9:35 pm

texl1649 wrote:
This sounds like a re-run of the A400M to me. Next, a very unique all Euro-sourced engine will be required, surely. Heck, the US/partners spent a trillion bucks developing the F-35. What could go wrong?

Well not quite a trillion dollars... the dev to end of SDD program for the F-35 cost the US and partners US$59 billion.

I would expect for the type of aircraft being suggested here, including size and complexity, that US$60 billion is likely going to be required. There are a lot of technologies that still need to be developed and while some may exist as concepts or prototypes making those mass producible and affordable is a significant step that requires investment. Add in the additional European fudge factor for political and economic partnership and you arrive at a big number.

Planeflyer wrote:
Let’s assume the stays a Franco/German program. What do we all think entry into service will be?

I’d say 20-25 years but I’ll admit this is a guess.

Anyone else?

Could we then assume adding 3-5 years for each incremental partner nation?

It really depends on how the aircraft is developed. The very first single role version will likely enter service around 2040 with later capabilities coming 5-7 years later. The issue will be production numbers and how fast the rate increases. If it remains low then it is likely the aircraft will follow a similar design path to the Rafale and Eurofighter programs, very slowly introducing new capabilities over time and as funding allows.

Although at this point there is more chance than not that this program never produces an aircraft and fizzles out in the early 2020s due to economic and political issues.
 
Planeflyer
Posts: 1383
Joined: Fri Mar 14, 2014 3:49 am

Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Fri May 17, 2019 2:52 am

Any thoughts on development costs?
 
Ozair
Posts: 3790
Joined: Mon Jan 31, 2005 8:38 am

Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Fri May 17, 2019 3:40 am

Planeflyer wrote:
Any thoughts on development costs?

As I said in the post above I expect they are looking at around US$60 billion. If you consider what Rafale and Eurofighter cost to develop, pushing US$30 billion each, then double that for likely a larger aircraft with more research and development work required, that seems a decent ballpark figure, if they don't cheap out.
 
Ozair
Posts: 3790
Joined: Mon Jan 31, 2005 8:38 am

Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Mon May 20, 2019 1:09 am

Boeing’s SH option for the German Tornado replacement just got a whole lot more competitive. If the SH is certified for nuclear delivery by 2025, and Germany doesn’t have to pay for these costs, then this would make it a very attractive option for Germany. They could continue to replace T1 Eurofighters with new T3 Eurofighters while also acquiring a SH/Growler combination that covers the SEAD as well as NATO nuclear delivery role and not go the expensive and risk prone route of certifying the Eurofighter for nuclear delivery.

BOEING F/A-18E/F SUPER HORNET BLOCK III NUCLEAR CAPABLE BY 2025

During the bi-annual Pre-Paris Air Show Media Tour in St. Louis, Boeing executives informed MONCh that their F/A-18E/F Super HORNET Block III multirole fighter jets will be be more stealthy, pack a more powerful punch, fly with increased stamina and carry a more robust communication and targeting system, as the US Navy awarded the company a U$4 billion contract for the production of 78 Block IIIs (61 single seat E’models and 17 two seat F models) to start being delivered by 2022.

...

As the Block III Super HORNET (and incidentally the E/A-18 GROWLER) will be offered to Germany to replace its fleet of aging TORNADOs, Boeing states during the Media tour that, "by 2025 we will have nuclear capability." The German Ministry of Defense is looking at the nonstealthy Eurofighter TYPHOON and F/A-18 Super HORNET and to replace Germany's 90 TORNADO aircraft set to retire in 2035, but the jets will have to carry nuclear weapons. The TYPHOON is not nuclear capable yet ,but a purchase of 45 Super HORNETs could complement 143 TYPHOONs.

https://www.monch.com/mpg/news/air/5450-f18blk3.html
 
User avatar
keesje
Posts: 12774
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2001 2:08 am

Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Fri May 24, 2019 9:52 am

Germany is to significantly enhance the capability of its simulator-based training for the Panavia Tornado, as it looks to continue operations with the strike and reconnaissance type until at least 2030.


https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/simulator-update-to-boost-german-tornado-fleet-458403/

For confirmation the Luftwaffe wants a 2 crew strike aircraft for longer complicated missions.

An F35 or Eurofighter just don't fit the specification.

A pumped up F18 or Rafale does fit the bill, but would it be worth the investment when you have a Tornado fleet..
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
texl1649
Posts: 949
Joined: Thu Aug 02, 2007 5:38 am

Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Fri May 24, 2019 11:04 am

What is the “complexity” of a tactical fighter bomber mission requiring a weapons/nav officer in the plane moving forward? It kind of made sense in the 70’s (F-111/F-14/F-4 era) but I really didn’t even think it made sense for the F-15E models. It barely makes sense to even have pilots for most of those missions, heading into the 2030’s, imho.
 
User avatar
bikerthai
Posts: 2834
Joined: Wed Apr 28, 2010 1:45 pm

Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Fri May 24, 2019 11:58 am

texl1649 wrote:
What is the “complexity” of a tactical fighter bomber mission requiring a weapons/nav officer in the plane moving forward? It kind of made sense in the 70’s (F-111/F-14/F-4 era) but I really didn’t even think it made sense for the F-15E models. It barely makes sense to even have pilots for most of those missions, heading into the 2030’s, imho.


Unless you want someone locally to control all the wingmen/drones.

bt
Intelligent seeks knowledge. Enlightened seeks wisdom.
 
texl1649
Posts: 949
Joined: Thu Aug 02, 2007 5:38 am

Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Fri May 24, 2019 9:41 pm

But in those situations, BK, you don’t want to use a Tornado/Super Hornet/Eurofighter either, moving forward. You’d have to have a stealthy platform, period.
 
User avatar
bikerthai
Posts: 2834
Joined: Wed Apr 28, 2010 1:45 pm

Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Fri May 24, 2019 10:00 pm

But don't strike platform have wingmen as well? You'll just have more bombs on the scene without the equivalent number of pilots. Or the controlling aircraft can be slightly further away while the drone does the final bombing run.

bt
Intelligent seeks knowledge. Enlightened seeks wisdom.
 
Planeflyer
Posts: 1383
Joined: Fri Mar 14, 2014 3:49 am

Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Sat May 25, 2019 1:33 am

keesje wrote:
Germany is to significantly enhance the capability of its simulator-based training for the Panavia Tornado, as it looks to continue operations with the strike and reconnaissance type until at least 2030.


https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/simulator-update-to-boost-german-tornado-fleet-458403/

For confirmation the Luftwaffe wants a 2 crew strike aircraft for longer complicated missions.

An F35 or Eurofighter just don't fit the specification.

A pumped up F18 or Rafale does fit the bill, but would it be worth the investment when you have a Tornado fleet..


They sure are going old school.
 
texl1649
Posts: 949
Joined: Thu Aug 02, 2007 5:38 am

Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Mon May 27, 2019 8:58 pm

Maybe they could just pull some F-4's out of retirement/the boneyard, and put new drone comm's in them. Did theirs ever get the Turkish/Israeli upgrades from about 30 years ago?
 
texl1649
Posts: 949
Joined: Thu Aug 02, 2007 5:38 am

Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Mon May 27, 2019 9:06 pm

Or, perhaps more modernity is required. The 2 seat Mig-29's could also I suppose be called upon/certified for drone strike coordination/nuclear carriage, if needed. I'm sure the Russians would agree.

https://migflug.com/jetflights/mig-29-versus-fa-18/
 
Planeflyer
Posts: 1383
Joined: Fri Mar 14, 2014 3:49 am

Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Tue May 28, 2019 3:12 am

If I understand it correctly the idea is have a two seater for complex missions but what is more complex than to be detected by enemy radar and to be under missile attack almost upon take off? The AC they are proposing to buy was obsolete 10 years ago.
 
Ozair
Posts: 3790
Joined: Mon Jan 31, 2005 8:38 am

Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Tue May 28, 2019 7:38 am

keesje wrote:
https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/simulator-update-to-boost-german-tornado-fleet-458403/

For confirmation the Luftwaffe wants a 2 crew strike aircraft for longer complicated missions.

An F35 or Eurofighter just don't fit the specification.

A pumped up F18 or Rafale does fit the bill, but would it be worth the investment when you have a Tornado fleet..

Keesje that isn't what that article says. It just talks about the Germans improving the simulators of the Tornados...

By the way the Eurofighter remains the most likely option to replace the Tornado in German service and no the Rafale is not in the picture, never has been and never will be.

Planeflyer wrote:
If I understand it correctly the idea is have a two seater for complex missions but what is more complex than to be detected by enemy radar and to be under missile attack almost upon take off? The AC they are proposing to buy was obsolete 10 years ago.

Keesje doesn't have any evidence to support the two person crew concept and yes the concept is significantly outdated. Every single 5th gen aircraft flying today has only a single seat cockpit. The US is already planning to integrate loyal wingman operations into the F-35 in Blk 4, without requiring a second cockpit to do so. Western airpower has moved on from dedicated strike aircraft to multi-role self escort strike. Single seat jets are more than capable of accomplishing that mission set.

texl1649 wrote:
Or, perhaps more modernity is required. The 2 seat Mig-29's could also I suppose be called upon/certified for drone strike coordination/nuclear carriage, if needed. I'm sure the Russians would agree.

https://migflug.com/jetflights/mig-29-versus-fa-18/

What a terrible website. How can you reference an exercise that occurred in the early 90s as a factor in how effective the aircraft is today. Yes the MiG-29 in 1992 was a good WVR aircraft due to the HMS and AA-11 combo (but with sever limitations in other areas). Problem is today the MiG-29 hasn't moved beyond that capability while the F-15,16,18, 22, 35, Eurofighter, Gripen etc all have HMS with HOBS missiles that are significantly more capable.
 
User avatar
bikerthai
Posts: 2834
Joined: Wed Apr 28, 2010 1:45 pm

Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Tue May 28, 2019 1:35 pm

Ozair wrote:
. Every single 5th gen aircraft flying today has only a single seat cockpit. The US is already planning to integrate loyal wingman operations into the F-35 in Blk 4, without requiring a second cockpit to do so.


But just like the F-15EX buy, if the need is now, then waiting for Blk 4, may not be an option. The question really is, is Stealth really needed for the any deployment scenario for the German? Any offensive operation would surely be in conjunction with allies with plenty of stealth capabilities. Defensive operation would be under their SAM umbrella. Sure there are times when stealth would be very useful, but when balancing it with a budgets, what makes the most sense?

bt
Intelligent seeks knowledge. Enlightened seeks wisdom.
 
texl1649
Posts: 949
Joined: Thu Aug 02, 2007 5:38 am

Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Tue May 28, 2019 8:42 pm

The two seat requirement rumor cited above just made me laugh, sorry, my post (F-4, or MiG-29) was intended to be sarcastic. It surely is a throwback mentality, although it’s true Qatar very recently took some 2 seat F-15QA’s. I also don’t really understand the thinking there, unless it was just cheaper for Boeing to keep the Super Eagle cockpit configuration basically somehow.

I doubt there will ever be another new two seat tactical aircraft. There surely won’t be any new designs that don’t incorporate low visibility from the start. But the Germans do have a penchant for the unusual/unconventional going back....well all the way back in combat aviation.
 
Ozair
Posts: 3790
Joined: Mon Jan 31, 2005 8:38 am

Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Wed May 29, 2019 11:39 am

bikerthai wrote:
Ozair wrote:
. Every single 5th gen aircraft flying today has only a single seat cockpit. The US is already planning to integrate loyal wingman operations into the F-35 in Blk 4, without requiring a second cockpit to do so.


But just like the F-15EX buy, if the need is now, then waiting for Blk 4, may not be an option.

What need now? There isn't an in production loyal wingman flying today.

bikerthai wrote:
The question really is, is Stealth really needed for the any deployment scenario for the German? Any offensive operation would surely be in conjunction with allies with plenty of stealth capabilities. Defensive operation would be under their SAM umbrella. Sure there are times when stealth would be very useful, but when balancing it with a budgets, what makes the most sense?

bt
[/quote]
The German cost to operate the Eurofighter is not insignificant. The value a debate-ably small increase in operating cost, if it would actually be an increase, compared to the operational value of operating a stealth aircraft speaks for themselves. No SAM umbrella is going to be everywhere and/or offensive operations may atrite that SAM umbrella shows where stealth adds value.
 
User avatar
bikerthai
Posts: 2834
Joined: Wed Apr 28, 2010 1:45 pm

Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Wed May 29, 2019 12:10 pm

Ozair wrote:
What need now?


Wasn't referring to the need for the wingman drone. It seems to me Germany needs to replace their Tornados with a specific budget and time constraint.

I'm sure if the 35 can meet those contraints, and satisfy the German's requirement, they will buy 'em. If only to leave them on the tarmac for lack of maintenance. 8-)

bt
Intelligent seeks knowledge. Enlightened seeks wisdom.
 
Ozair
Posts: 3790
Joined: Mon Jan 31, 2005 8:38 am

Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Wed May 29, 2019 1:30 pm

bikerthai wrote:
Ozair wrote:
What need now?


Wasn't referring to the need for the wingman drone. It seems to me Germany needs to replace their Tornados with a specific budget and time constraint.

I'm sure if the 35 can meet those contraints, and satisfy the German's requirement, they will buy 'em. If only to leave them on the tarmac for lack of maintenance. 8-)

bt

They have already removed the F-35 from the competition, it is between the SH/Growler and Eurofighter now.
 
Planeflyer
Posts: 1383
Joined: Fri Mar 14, 2014 3:49 am

Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Thu May 30, 2019 12:32 am

F4 =injured baby seal, mig29= newborn seal, SH/typhoon = seals

F35= Orca

Seriously the typhoon and SH will have survivability rates a lot closer to the 29 and F4 than they will to the 35.
 
User avatar
bikerthai
Posts: 2834
Joined: Wed Apr 28, 2010 1:45 pm

Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Thu May 30, 2019 1:34 pm

Planeflyer wrote:
Seriously the typhoon and SH will have survivability rates a lot closer to the 29 and F4 than they will to the 35.


:scratchchin: Perhaps getting a less survivable frame is a political move to not antagonize Russia? After all,what scenario would German need Stealth? I can not foresee any war Germany would engage in that would not involve the massive stealth fleet of the US Air Force. :spin: And not having any stealth, would make it less likely their planes would be tasked for first strike (unless they are getting the Growlers).

bt
Intelligent seeks knowledge. Enlightened seeks wisdom.
 
User avatar
Amazonski
Posts: 14
Joined: Fri May 04, 2018 8:23 pm

Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Fri May 31, 2019 3:13 pm

Ozair wrote:
They have already removed the F-35 from the competition, it is between the SH/Growler and Eurofighter now.

I know it's a political decision, they even sack their Ari Force chief over F-35. But choosing 4 gen airframe, over 5 gen, considering the price is practically the same is beyond me.
 
SuperiorPilotMe
Posts: 49
Joined: Mon Dec 24, 2018 4:55 pm

Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Fri May 31, 2019 10:47 pm

texl1649 wrote:
It kind of made sense in the 70’s (F-111/F-14/F-4 era) but I really didn’t even think it made sense for the F-15E models. It barely makes sense to even have pilots for most of those missions, heading into the 2030’s, imho.


Tell that to all the nations buying F-15Es. Since the turn of the millennium it’s been vastly outselling the single-seater. Even two-seat Falcons are becoming more popular in actual combat roles.
Stop the stupids!- Claus Kellerman

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 13 guests

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos