india1
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RE: India Confirms Order For IAF’s Rafale

Mon Jan 25, 2016 10:19 am

Quoting angad84 (Reply 49):
Cheers (not really)

More hiccups than celebrations...
 
BarfBag
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RE: India Confirms Order For IAF’s Rafale

Mon Jan 25, 2016 6:13 pm

Quoting india1 (Reply 48):
How's this any different?

They agreed that they previously agreed.
 
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Spiderguy252
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RE: India Confirms Order For IAF’s Rafale

Tue Jan 26, 2016 11:37 am

Don't think we're ever going to induct a Rafale into the fleet.

The powers that be should stop dilly-dallying around and terminate all proceedings right away. If we were any serious about this thing, they'd be flying in our colours already.
Vahroone
 
Ozair
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RE: India Confirms Order For IAF’s Rafale

Tue Jan 26, 2016 9:27 pm

Quoting angad84 (Reply 49):
Again, if it's going to be "resolved soon" then what the f**k have they been doing for the past nine months?

Looks like the price remains the sticking point and that reported US$4-5 billion price gap remains.

Quote:
Major differences over price has held up the much anticipated contract worth at least more than $7 billion that India was to sign with French aviation major Dassault to buy 36 Rafale multi-role combat jets for the Indian Air Force, even as visiting French President Francois Hollande and Prime Minister Narendra Modi both said their governments had signed an inter-government agreement in New Delhi on Monday, January 25.

Indian government sources now indicate that it will take at least another month plus to hammer out a consensus between the two sides on how much each plane should cost.

Prime Minister Modi had announced in Paris last year that his government was scaling down the contract from the originally planned purchase of 126 fighter jets to a modest 36 planes.

Since then the two sides have been consistently trying to hammer out a solution to many contentious issues left behind by the original deal.

One of the initial hurdles was on the quantum of offsets.

While France was willing to agree to reinvest 30 per cent of the value of its contract in Indian entities to meet the offset obligations, India insisted on a 50 per cent offset clause to be met.

The French side finally agreed to invest 50 per cent of the value of its Rafale contract in India to boost the Make in India programme.

Two other tricky issues, however, needed to be sorted out before the actual contract document was ready to be signed.

One, India wanted a sovereign guarantee from the French government as collateral. Paris was, however, reportedly willing to give only a letter of guarantee from President Hollande.

After initial hesitation, New Delhi has apparently agreed to accept this as a concession since the letter is being treated as part of the Inter-Government Agreement signed on Monday.

The second and most important aspect -- that of the actual cost of the aircraft, including weapons systems and avionics -- is, however, proving to be the most difficult to resolve.

While the French have been insisting that the cost of the aircraft will invariably be higher given the lower numbers that India is willing to buy now, New Delhi insists that it must get a competitive price given the fact that it did not walk out of the original tender when it could easily have done so.

While no one is officially willing to give the exact figure each side is firm on, BharatShakti.in has learnt that India is firm on not paying more than around $7 billion for the 36 aircraft, the French are quoting a much higher figure of about $11 billion.

Given the wide gap in the figures, both sides may have to walk halfway to meet each other to resolve the issue and take the contract on the threshold of its final signing in the next few weeks.

Both Hollande and Modi have invested a great deal of their own political capital in re-configuring the original unwieldy tender, and government sources insist that the contract will be signed sooner than later.

Once that happens, it will bring the curtain down on one of the world's longest running competitions to sell fighter aircraft for any air force anywhere in the world.
http://www.rediff.com/news/special/r...ng-up-the-rafale-deal/20160126.htm
 
BarfBag
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RE: India Confirms Order For IAF’s Rafale

Wed Jan 27, 2016 3:41 am

French offer: $11 billion for 36 jets with 30% offset
Indian offer: $7 billion for 36 jets with 30% offset

Wide gap is an understatement. With that kind of difference, I don't see this deal ever being signed. The two parties are fundamentally too far apart in terms of basic price structure. IAF is better off doubling or tripling the LCA orders from 120 firm to 240-360 firm - they can buy LCAs for $35-40 million apiece, and 200odd for $7-8 billion. GoI just sent LCAs to Bahrain Airshow, where it got plenty of positive press.
 
angad84
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RE: India Confirms Order For IAF’s Rafale

Wed Jan 27, 2016 7:25 am

Quoting Ozair (Reply 53):
Looks like the price remains the sticking point

No s**t!

Quoting Ozair (Reply 53):
reported US$4-5 billion price gap remains

LOL good luck bringing it down by $4bn.

Quoting BarfBag (Reply 54):
French offer: $11 billion for 36 jets with 30% offset
Indian offer: $7 billion for 36 jets with 30% offset

I think you mean 50% offset for the Indian demand?

Regardless, it just shows how out of touch with reality the MoD is...

If it comes down to 36 Rafale for $11 bn (or heck, even $7bn) versus however-many LCA for the same money, I'd go for the LCA every time — and my thoughts on the latter type are well known around these parts (hint: not positive).

As a taxpayer, I simply see one as better stewardship of national funds than the other.

Plus, if we get 36 for $7bn, Dassault will never sell a Rafale again. Qatar will pitch a fit (they get 30% less plane for the money) and the French will be exposed as bad faith negotiators - if they haven't already.

Quoting BarfBag (Reply 54):
GoI just sent LCAs to Bahrain Airshow, where it got plenty of positive press.

Any sources/quotes? Because that's not what I heard. Beyond the obvious novelty value of seeing the Tejas on foreign soil — and for many people, for the first time ever, anywhere — I haven't heard anything "positive" about the BIAS outing.

The people I spoke to that were there didn't think the display itself was anything special, and most were mystified by the presence of the Sarang team, given that they fly the ALH Mk.II — a lot of observers wanted to see the Mk.III and Mk.IV (Rudra) in action.

Cheers
Angad
 
BarfBag
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RE: India Confirms Order For IAF’s Rafale

Wed Jan 27, 2016 7:59 am

Quoting angad84 (Reply 55):
Regardless, it just shows how out of touch with reality the MoD is...

Why would they be out of touch any more than the French are ? There's absolutely no reason to apportion blame on one side alone. If the articles are anything to go by, price negotiations haven't even scratched the surface of finding a common ground, after FOUR years. It simply emphasizes that there has never been any agreement on price. Not even close to it. The seller suggesting 58% higher price than the buyer, isn't a negotiation that's 'going to be done in days'. The French will have have built the just announced Delhi-Chandigarh high speed line before this concludes in the likely cancelation of the deal...

Quoting angad84 (Reply 55):
Plus, if we get 36 for $7bn, Dassault will never sell a Rafale again. Qatar will pitch a fit (they get 30% less plane for the money) and the French will be exposed as bad faith negotiators - if they haven't already.

Which is not our problem. The bottomline is India wants to pay for a plane that was tested 5 years ago that isn't in production anymore for a price it intended to pay then, and France wants to sell us another plane that won't be out of the assembly line for another 3 years, for a price it intends to sell it for then. This is two parties dealing with two different things.

This isn't the MoD's fault any less than it's that of the French. Maybe they thought "excusez moi, but that plane we sent for your test is going to be out of production tomorrow. The replacement will be ready in 5 years and will cost 50% more" is ok. They don't have to worry about bad faith negotiation; they're already a long way down that path. The IAF was *very* clear about this - they did not want to repeat the MKI process again, which meant they wanted planes that were evaluated - Rafale-F2s (or was it F3s?) - off the shelf. The French could not deliver, and instead want to sell F3Rs for much more.

Quoting angad84 (Reply 55):
Any sources/quotes? Because that's not what I heard.

There have been *dozens* of articles in the press, not to mention tons of photographs online. There's even long running threads on defence forums about its show performance, in particular its surprisingly high AoA and STR while completing full 360-deg turns within ~20 seconds on video, which is close to Viper grade performance and better than IAF requirement. Doing so on foreign shores on first trip suggests a significant amount of confidence within the test team.
 
angad84
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RE: India Confirms Order For IAF’s Rafale

Wed Jan 27, 2016 11:08 am

Quoting BarfBag (Reply 56):
Why would they be out of touch any more than the French are ?

Call me when the French MoD wants to buy 126 planes for the same price as 36.

... or when they want to buy 36 for the same price as 24.

Quoting BarfBag (Reply 56):
Which is not our problem.

Indeed, which is why I think Dassault would be stupid to cave and India will never get the planes. Or we cave and pay their asking price. Either way, we're getting screwed! 
Quoting BarfBag (Reply 56):
They don't have to worry about bad faith negotiation; they're already a long way down that path

No, you're absolutely right. India is a country where we reward bad behaviour, so I suppose that's why they're sticking around. I meant administrations that are actually worth a damn would not and do not reward this sort of conduct. Indeed, they usually do not put themselves in such positions in the first place.

Quoting BarfBag (Reply 56):
The IAF was *very* clear about this - they did not want to repeat the MKI process again, which meant they wanted planes that were evaluated - Rafale-F2s (or was it F3s?) - off the shelf.

Yes, they did not want a Su-30MKI repeat, but they're willing to throw away their future for a very suspect present. I'm sure the Rafale is a fantastically capable craft (well, if you forget about the IRST and HMD and e/o pod and... oh crap) but as I keep saying — at what price?
(They evaluated the F2 minus AESA)

Quoting BarfBag (Reply 56):
There have been *dozens* of articles in the press, not to mention tons of photographs online

Rehashing HAL/ADA/DRDO/IAF press releases - I get the same releases, so I know when someone's paraphrasing something I've already read. Ditto with pics.

I'd be happy if you could point me to a piece datelined in Bahrain.

Quoting BarfBag (Reply 56):
There's even long running threads on defence forums about its show performance, in particular its surprisingly high AoA and STR while completing full 360-deg turns within ~20 seconds on video, which is close to Viper grade performance and better than IAF requirement.

That's very encouraging (no sarcasm). I've just seen one thread on a forum where the members were very enthusiastic about the display, and I've had my first email correspondence not half an hour ago from someone who thought it was a very spirited display. So far the naysayers are still in the majority, but we'll see as more people reply to emails and more forum threads pop up. I don't know what the etiquette here is regarding external forum links, but could I bother you to PM me specific examples if you don't mind?

Quoting BarfBag (Reply 56):
Doing so on foreign shores on first trip suggests a significant amount of confidence within the test team.

Sure.

However, the greater issue was pulling focus in an under-resourced programme from actual development work to airshow participation. Here's a report that sort of addresses that side of things (toward the end) - http://indianexpress.com/article/ind...genous-tejas-to-bahrain-air-show/


Cheers
A
 
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WingsFan
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RE: India Confirms Order For IAF’s Rafale

Wed Jan 27, 2016 2:51 pm

Quoting BarfBag (Reply 56):
If the articles are anything to go by, price negotiations haven't even scratched the surface of finding a common ground, after FOUR years.

Four years is too long for any negotiation of this magnitude. Being so much apart in terms of expectations after four years is unforgivable, irrespective of the cause. I am sure (/hope) both parties know by now that this is going nowhere. What is really the motivation for still keeping this charade going? Is MoD still expecting that the French will suddenly agree to anything close to what MoD is expecting them to deliver? Are French really holding their breath for India to cave in to the new deal being offered?
A timely wrong decision is certainly better than a good decision that is too late. Double down on Tejas even if that plane is no where near as capable of Rafale. At least it will help mature the domestic industry.

[Edited 2016-01-27 06:53:41]
 
Marcus
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RE: India Confirms Order For IAF’s Rafale

Wed Jan 27, 2016 3:15 pm

This thread is the Military Aviation forum equivalent of "When will NW retire it's DC9's?"....I will believe it once I see a fleet of Rafale's in full IAF colors at an IAF base.
Kids!....we are going to the happiest place on earth...TIJUANA! signed: Krusty the Clown
 
LPSHobby
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RE: India Confirms Order For IAF’s Rafale

Wed Jan 27, 2016 3:43 pm

a curiosity question: wicv other fighter could India buy 36 units paying 7 billion? any thoughts?
 
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moo
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RE: India Confirms Order For IAF’s Rafale

Wed Jan 27, 2016 4:10 pm

Quoting LPSHobby (Reply 60):
a curiosity question: wicv other fighter could India buy 36 units paying 7 billion? any thoughts?

Oman bought 12 Eurofighters and 8 Hawks for $4.06Billion.

Saudi Arabia bought 72 Eurofighters for $6.3Billion.
 
LPSHobby
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RE: India Confirms Order For IAF’s Rafale

Wed Jan 27, 2016 8:12 pm

Quoting moo (Reply 61):
Oman bought 12 Eurofighters and 8 Hawks for $4.06Billion.

Saudi Arabia bought 72 Eurofighters for $6.3Billion.

twice the quantity of fighters for about the same price, why don´t India buy the Eurofighter?
 
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ptrjong
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RE: India Confirms Order For IAF’s Rafale

Wed Jan 27, 2016 8:21 pm

The Saudi unit price is supposedly 87.5 million and the Omani unit price is supposedly three times as high...
The only difference between me and a madman is that I am not mad (Salvador Dali)
 
angad84
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RE: India Confirms Order For IAF’s Rafale

Wed Jan 27, 2016 9:05 pm

Quoting LPSHobby (Reply 60):
a curiosity question: wicv other fighter could India buy 36 units paying 7 billion? any thoughts?

Gripen, for a lot less money - http://saabgroup.com/Media/news-pres...act-with-brazil-becomes-effective/

OK, it's also less plane for less money, but the price-capability relation isn't linear — you save a LOT of money and get a somewhat less capable aircraft. It's called compromise. Mature adults do it all the time in their daily lives, it's part of being a functioning human being.

Plus, people easily forget — a huge chunk of an aircraft's cost comes from the engines, so when you ditch two for one, you're laughing to the bank. The GE F404/414 (depending on variant) is a stupidly reliable, easy to maintain engine. There's only about a zillion of them in service, so simple economy of scale dictates that it's got to be a better choice than a relatively niche engine like the M88.

Quoting moo (Reply 61):
Saudi Arabia bought 72 Eurofighters for $6.3Billion.

There was an unspecified price escalation midway through that contract though, so at this point I'm not really sure what the whole deal's worth — likely in the region north of $10bn in today's money if one factors in escalation and inflation. Plus, it's worth noting that the Saudi deal was for a mix of F2 and FGR4 birds (or equivalent standards), with the majority being F2-equivalent, while we're talking — presumably — of AESA-equipped Rafale F3s for the IAF, which *technically* the Typhoon cannot match on paper without the Captor-E.

Regardless, given the aggressive lobbying by Germany in the wake of the MMRCA final selection, I do believe that the Eurofighter consortium — with any country in the lead — could probably better whatever Dassault's got on the table.

Cheers
A
 
BarfBag
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RE: India Confirms Order For IAF’s Rafale

Thu Jan 28, 2016 1:40 am

Quoting angad84 (Reply 57):
India is a country where we reward bad behaviour

It'd be more accurate to say they expected us to reward their behavior, but find themselves having bet wrongly.

Fact is, the French bet wrongly here. If IAF tested F2s and expected prices in the F2 territory, they're not going to agree to inflated F3R prices. Dassault lifecycle concerns are their own concerns and NOT the IAF's concern. If they expected never to sell the F2 or F2 to us, they should have been very clear about it well before the downselect. But they didn't, partly because they knew they'd lose if they did. So they withheld their own lifecycle issues until after the final downselect, and now find that MoD will not accommodate them. This is not the MoD's fault at all. They may have done a lot of things wrong before that, like not simply buying additional M2Ks. But when it came to their expectations following the downselect, the cluck up is entirely the fault of the French. They did a bait and switch.

Quoting angad84 (Reply 57):
Rehashing HAL/ADA/DRDO/IAF press releases

That's your subjective opinion. IMHO, the general press tenor has nothing to do with rehashing official press releases. In fact, even if it theoretically IS, the very fact that they're all saying the same thing is quite unprecedented  
Quoting angad84 (Reply 57):
So far the naysayers are still in the majority

There's no data to back that up, and anecdotal information suggests the diametric opposite. Plus, every naysayer's preference should be clearly stated. For example, there's you, who's known in the business as a staunch Gripen backer, so that needs to be taken into account.

Quoting angad84 (Reply 57):
However, the greater issue was pulling focus in an under-resourced programme from actual development work to airshow participation.

An under-resourced program with a PR issue that now finds itself with plenty of positive PR to work with. Good PR gets $$s. Bad PR causes funding issues, which causes more bad PR.

There's been an unmistakable tide of more and more press articles favouring additional LCA orders and scuttling the Rafale order entirely. Anyone who keeps clinging on to Rafale and Gripen fantasies increasingly risks being run over.

Quoting angad84 (Reply 64):
Gripen, for a lot less money

Gripen at current unit prices still falls well behind the LCA in terms of what LCA can accomplish for a fixed order budget. A $X billion order gets you 2-3x as many LCAs as Gripens, and ~4-5x per Rafale. Gripen and Rafale may be more mature 4th gen platforms, but not 3-5x more to be worth the money.

When money is the sticking point, they'll never make the case at their current prices. The LCA has simply matured enough in the meantime to make every MRCA contender questionable, simply because it's 'good enough' and costs way less.
 
angad84
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RE: India Confirms Order For IAF’s Rafale

Thu Jan 28, 2016 8:51 am

Quoting BarfBag (Reply 65):
It'd be more accurate to say they expected us to reward their behavior, but find themselves having bet wrongly.

Per-maybe-haps. The fact is, there is some serious political capital invested in this — on both sides. NaMo, for all his virtues, is a bit of a showman, and I'm not sure he'd be too happy to have deal fail after multiple public pronouncements stating his commitment to the contract. Regardless of the truth, regardless of what you and I think, the opposition would excoriate him and his public image would suffer.

Quoting BarfBag (Reply 65):
Fact is, the French bet wrongly here.

Here we agree.

Quoting BarfBag (Reply 65):
This is not the MoD's fault at all. They may have done a lot of things wrong before that, like not simply buying additional M2Ks. But when it came to their expectations following the downselect, the cluck up is entirely the fault of the French. They did a bait and switch.

Really? A blind man could have seen this coming. F2 or F3, bait-and-switch or not, there was no money for the MMRCA programme. The AoN for 126 aircraft, including ToT and local production, was roughly the same as what the French are asking for 36 flyaways.

Quoting BarfBag (Reply 65):
That's your subjective opinion.

No, because none of them were there, therefore they're all reporting second-hand. Unless you can find a report datelined in Sakhir/Bahrain...

Quoting BarfBag (Reply 65):
IMHO, the general press tenor has nothing to do with rehashing official press releases.

Really? The tenor is positive, and the press releases are (obviously) positive. That correlation means nothing?

Quoting BarfBag (Reply 65):
In fact, even if it theoretically IS, the very fact that they're all saying the same thing is quite unprecedented

This thread began because everyone was saying the same thing, so:

- not unprecedented
- not accurate

They're all saying the same thing because stories have to be filed and the only information is coming from the establishment.

Quoting BarfBag (Reply 65):
There's no data to back that up, and anecdotal information suggests the diametric opposite.

Anecdotal and data are different things, I never suggested they were to be given equal consideration. All I said was that my anecdotal information was less than stellar. Neither you nor I have any useful data to say anything at this point, all we can do is compare stories.

Quoting BarfBag (Reply 65):
For example, there's you, who's known in the business as a staunch Gripen backer, so that needs to be taken into account.

Damn! And here I though it wasn't obvious... 
Quoting BarfBag (Reply 65):
An under-resourced program with a PR issue that now finds itself with plenty of positive PR to work with. Good PR gets $$s. Bad PR causes funding issues, which causes more bad PR.

We can only wait and see. Funding hasn't really been the key issue, tbh - project management has.

Quoting BarfBag (Reply 65):
There's been an unmistakable tide of more and more press articles favouring additional LCA orders and scuttling the Rafale order entirely. Anyone who keeps clinging on to Rafale and Gripen fantasies increasingly risks being run over.

Additional orders mean nothing for a programme that hasn't entered series production and won't do so until 2018. Even then, with an initial rate of 8 a/c per year, adding Tejas orders will simply push the programme out into the late 2020s, where it will be an even more hopelessly outclassed machine.

I agree that this import bulls**t has to end, I agree that the LCA needs to enter squadron service in order to iron out the kinks and mature the platform, but I do NOT agree that the LCA is the solution for the massive capability and quantity gap that the IAF is facing between now and 2020.

(PS: you forgot Eurofighter fantasies. C'mon, give those guys some love too)

Quoting BarfBag (Reply 65):
Gripen at current unit prices still falls well behind the LCA in terms of what LCA can accomplish for a fixed order budget. A $X billion order gets you 2-3x as many LCAs as Gripens, and ~4-5x per Rafale. Gripen and Rafale may be more mature 4th gen platforms, but not 3-5x more to be worth the money.

When money is the sticking point, they'll never make the case at their current prices. The LCA has simply matured enough in the meantime to make every MRCA contender questionable, simply because it's 'good enough' and costs way less.

Fair points all, I was responding to that poster's question with the assumption that he was asking about import alternatives.

The LCA may be a cheaper solution, but as I said about the Gripen, it is similarly less capable. Also, it is the least timely option available. I doubt you and I will ever see eye to eye on this, but I really do enjoy these exchanges.

Cheers
A
 
jouy31
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RE: India Confirms Order For IAF’s Rafale

Thu Jan 28, 2016 1:24 pm

I am quite surprised by claims that it was the F2 standard that was tested by India, as F3 standard Rafales have been inducted into the French Air Force since 2009.

[Edited 2016-01-28 05:27:37]
 
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moo
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RE: India Confirms Order For IAF’s Rafale

Thu Jan 28, 2016 2:25 pm

Quoting jouy31 (Reply 67):
I am quite surprised by claims that it was the F2 standard that was tested by India, as F3 standard Rafales have been inducted into the French Air Force since 2009.

Regardless, India cannot expect to delay actual purchase by nearly half a decade and expect the same product at the same prices.
 
angad84
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RE: India Confirms Order For IAF’s Rafale

Fri Jan 29, 2016 7:45 am

Quoting jouy31 (Reply 67):
I am quite surprised by claims that it was the F2 standard that was tested by India, as F3 standard Rafales have been inducted into the French Air Force since 2009.

I don't think there are any public sources that confirm which spec of each aircraft was tested, but we know that the trials were spread out over a fairly long period of time, and that several aircraft (French included) were tested minus many of the capabilities required by the RFP/ASQR, notably AESA. That would imply that the evaluated Rafale was an F2.

Quoting moo (Reply 68):
Regardless, India cannot expect to delay actual purchase by nearly half a decade and expect the same product at the same prices.

Quite so. A simple price escalation clause will see to that, leave alone actual industrial and economic realities.

Cheers
A
 
jouy31
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RE: India Confirms Order For IAF’s Rafale

Fri Jan 29, 2016 10:39 am

The F3 standard inducted in 2009 did not include an AESA radar, nor did the F2 standard. So the lack of an AESA radar in the planes that were tested by India would not imply that these planes were at the F2 standard.

In addition, the AESA radar, a requirement from the IAF in the MMRCA call for tender, has always been clearly presented by France as being an extension to the F3 standard. So claiming that France would promote the F2 standard at F2 prices, in order to hike prices at a later stage to include, among other things, the AESA radar, would not seem to be accurate.
 
BarfBag
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RE: India Confirms Order For IAF’s Rafale

Fri Feb 05, 2016 1:41 am

Quoting angad84 (Reply 66):
NaMo, for all his virtues, is a bit of a showman

I think he's effective at safeguarding Indian interests as he sees them. His primary motive in this regard is building domestic MIC, while also encouraging foreign investment.

Therefore, he wants to keep the Rafale negotiations going as a means to force HAL to work harder. Simultaneously he has no desire to cut off the deal right away when other deals with the French are on the table (e.g. Jaitapur NPP).

Quoting angad84 (Reply 66):
A blind man could have seen this coming. F2 or F3, bait-and-switch or not, there was no money for the MMRCA programme

Let me point out that the Rafale was the L1 bidder. That specifically means they won on price. That makes a 4-year price negotiation rather ridiculous to begin with.

Your argument is "we should have known the French were fibbing when they made the L1 bid, and that in reality the cost would be much more" ?

And that's our fault ? Really ?

Quoting angad84 (Reply 66):
This thread began because everyone was saying the same thing, so:
- not unprecedented
- not accurate

We're talking about the LCA here. In that context, HAL, DRDO and IAF all agreeing that It did very well at Sakhir, absolutely is unprecedented. If it isn't I'd love to hear when they last agreed on anything positive with regard to LCA.

Quoting angad84 (Reply 66):
Additional orders mean nothing for a programme that hasn't entered series production and won't do so until 2018.

Which is primarily the IAF's and St.Antony's fault. They're willing to test the Rafale and EF2K for the MMRCA program minus an AESA radar, but stipulate one for the LCA. In effect, it wants something like F3 standard before it will even accept the LCA, while both RAF and AdlA were happy to accept their aircraft with not-yet finalized capabilities at the outset.

Quoting angad84 (Reply 66):
Really? The tenor is positive, and the press releases are (obviously) positive. That correlation means nothing?

That's a really dumb argument. A bunch of news sites say positive things and that's rehashing MoD PR ? So when India wins a cricket match, the sports pages are rehashing cricinfo then ? As a photographer, would you like your work being characterized as 'he's just rehashing (insert better known photographer)' because your photos we of the same kind ?

Quoting angad84 (Reply 66):
I do NOT agree that the LCA is the solution for the massive capability and quantity gap that the IAF is facing between now and 2020.

It is the solution. By defauly. No one else can provide an option that puts its capability, quantity and quality so significantly within our control.

For one, I completely disagree with the notion of availability of an imported weapon. There's no such quantifiable thing, unless it also includes the state of commercial and political ties between two nations, and the industrial capacity of the supplier. For all of HALs issues, they are issues within our abilities to address. Not taking this into account is equivalent to issuing debt in a foreign currency while ignoring the exchange rate.
 
ThePointblank
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RE: India Confirms Order For IAF’s Rafale

Fri Feb 19, 2016 1:02 am

In the meantime, both Boeing and Lockheed Martin are confirming that they could set up production lines for both the F/A-18E/F and F-16 in India if they are picked to help fill the Indian Air Force's fighter needs:

http://www.flightglobal.com/news/art...ossibility-of-indian-fa-18-421950/

http://www.star-telegram.com/news/business/article61050602.html
 
queb
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RE: India Confirms Order For IAF’s Rafale

Fri Feb 19, 2016 2:42 am

Quoting ThePointblank (Reply 72):
In the meantime, both Boeing and Lockheed Martin are confirming that they could set up production lines for both the F/A-18E/F and F-16 in India if they are picked to help fill the Indian Air Force's fighter needs:

http://www.flightglobal.com/news/art...ossibility-of-indian-fa-18-421950/

http://www.star-telegram.com/news/business/article61050602.html

Saab too:

http://www.defensenews.com/story/def...pen-ng-fighter-jet-india/80566588/
 
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moo
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RE: India Confirms Order For IAF’s Rafale

Fri Feb 19, 2016 10:49 am

Quoting ThePointblank (Reply 72):
In the meantime, both Boeing and Lockheed Martin are confirming that they could set up production lines for both the F/A-18E/F and F-16 in India if they are picked to help fill the Indian Air Force's fighter needs:

Why is the F/A-18E/F or F-16 worthwhile for India yet not acceptable to a.net posters when the possibility of Canada buying either is brought up?
 
angad84
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RE: India Confirms Order For IAF’s Rafale

Fri Feb 19, 2016 11:40 am

Quoting ThePointblank (Reply 72):
In the meantime, both Boeing and Lockheed Martin are confirming that they could set up production lines for both the F/A-18E/F and F-16 in India if they are picked to help fill the Indian Air Force's fighter needs:

Of course they are "confident." You don't expect a company to say anything the buyer doesn't want to hear. FWIW, the F-16 is out of the running, heard around the proverbial watercooler.

The issue with anything american is the foreign policy baggage that comes with it, and I'm simply not sure this government wants to start down that road... YET.

Also, software source codes, IPR of further development(s) of whatever is selected, compatibility with Indian operated weapons, both present and future – all these will play a part in the selection. The smart money remains on Gripen because FFS, it's cheap, and the IAF doesn't need (at the moment) a super high tech swiss army knife, it needs 600 planes in the next decade! It boils down to the Swedish industrial package vs American diplomatic muscle. Maybe GoI will pick Gripen just as a "f**k you" to the Americans for the latest batch of F-16 sold to Pakistan.

Cheers
A
 
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Spiderguy252
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RE: India Confirms Order For IAF’s Rafale

Mon Feb 22, 2016 5:27 pm

Quoting angad84 (Reply 75):
Maybe GoI will pick Gripen just as a "f**k you" to the Americans for the latest batch of F-16 sold to Pakistan.

Or most likely they will just do nothing. That has long been the GoI way, leading to the current impasse on the Rafale, Super Sukhoi and now the PAKFA as well.
Vahroone
 
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RE: India Confirms Order For IAF’s Rafale

Mon Feb 22, 2016 10:09 pm

Quoting moo (Reply 74):
Why is the F/A-18E/F or F-16 worthwhile for India yet not acceptable to a.net posters when the possibility of Canada buying either is brought up?

Well the obvious point is that India has yet to be formally offered the F-35 so the remaining medium weight US fighter aircraft are the SH and F-16.

Other considerations are that Canada is a member of NATO and a strong strategic partner of the US and contributor to NORAD. Interoperability therefore becomes significantly more important. The F-35 has more range than either SH and F-16 which is importantly for the vast wasteland that is Northern Canada and Canada has over three times the land mass that India does. Canada also has significant industrial benefits associated with F-35, more so than with SH or F-16 while the offers being made to India essentially involve complete local manufacturer and ownership.

Quoting angad84 (Reply 75):
Maybe GoI will pick Gripen just as a "f**k you" to the Americans for the latest batch of F-16 sold to Pakistan.

Ha, take this America, India have decided to chose Gripen (and conveniently ignore the US engine and host of other components manufactured in the US of A...).

Probably the only reason India wouldn't chose the F-16 is because the Pakistanis already operate them. I can see India, and have read this argument from Indian press previously, not wanting to operate a similar type to Pakistan. I can also see why LM is happy to keep selling F-16s to Pakistan, a bird in the hand is better than two prospective buyers.

The SH has more of a chance, especially if the Kuwait order doesn't go through, given engine commonality with Tejas but frankly I don’t think it even has much of a chance.
 
angad84
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RE: India Confirms Order For IAF’s Rafale

Tue Feb 23, 2016 8:11 am

Quoting Ozair (Reply 77):
Well the obvious point is that India has yet to be formally offered the F-35

And it won't happen until India gets a LOT more strategically close with the USA. All this talk about "buy Viper now and F-35 later" that you saw in the mainstream press during the MMRCA days was absolute bollocks. F-35 is even more politically mired than MMRCA, and India joining the programme will take some serious doing.

For much the same reason, *any* Indian purchase of *any* US fighter remains unlikely. There are too many strings attached, and for better or worse, the India-US relationship is not quite there yet.

Quoting Ozair (Reply 77):
Ha, take this America, India have decided to chose Gripen (and conveniently ignore the US engine and host of other components manufactured in the US of A...).

C'mon, you know it's more than that. The prime contractor is the one making the money on a programme like this, regardless of where the parts come from...

Cheers
A
 
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sturmovik
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RE: India Confirms Order For IAF’s Rafale

Wed Feb 24, 2016 5:22 am

Quoting Spiderguy252 (Reply 76):
Or most likely they will just do nothing. That has long been the GoI way, leading to the current impasse on the Rafale, Super Sukhoi and now the PAKFA as well.

Well in GoI's defence (and I say this as an ardent critic of this government), they tried to do something regarding the Rafale. That they ended up overplaying their hand by announcing intent to buy 36 Rafales govt-to-govt is a different matter altogether. Had the PM not committed himself to the deal right at the start with such a high profile announcement - one whose failure will certainly bring him a barrage of criticism - the Rafale would have be out of contention a long time ago.

Also, the role of the IAF in shooting themselves in the foot is also not to be underestimated.
'What's it doing now?'
 
angad84
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RE: India Confirms Order For IAF’s Rafale

Wed Feb 24, 2016 8:25 pm

Quoting sturmovik (Reply 79):
they ended up overplaying their hand

Understatement of the year? Well, it's only February, but I think you have it for now.

Quoting sturmovik (Reply 79):
Also, the role of the IAF in shooting themselves in the foot is also not to be underestimated.

And now they're desperate and begging for any aircraft.

Cheers
A
 
Ozair
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RE: India Confirms Order For IAF’s Rafale

Wed Feb 24, 2016 10:29 pm

Quoting angad84 (Reply 78):
C'mon, you know it's more than that. The prime contractor is the one making the money on a programme like this, regardless of where the parts come from...

Yes it was somewhat tongue in cheek but I don't think Gripen (or SH or F-16 etc) is the answer.

I think India would gain more overall by expanding Tejas production. Despite its faults expanding production, probably necessitating at least one additional production line, would bring costs down, increase numbers in service and improve the potential for export. Manufacturing 50 Tejas a year by 2021 would come with significant cost efficiencies and, US engine the sole sticking point, probably make it the most cost effective light fighter on the market.

Expanded production also improves the chances for enhancements to be brought in, whether that is a MkII or later version, as one line can focus on meeting domestic production requirements while HAL for example can work on improvements.
 
angad84
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RE: India Confirms Order For IAF’s Rafale

Fri Feb 26, 2016 10:05 am

Quoting Ozair (Reply 81):
I think India would gain more overall by expanding Tejas production

In an ideal world, India would do Tejas and Gripen in parallel – the latter with a private company as a purely commercial thing, and the former as a true tech development, IPR, industrial capability programme. That way you address the pressing force strength issue and don't waste thirty-plus years' work on Tejas.

Of course, there's no money, so as you say the only realistic option is to double down on Tejas – as much as it sticks in my craw to say it. They need to stop dicking around, build twenty of them and hand them over to the IAF and say "Here, try to break it."

The only way they can improve an aircraft is to let the user loose on it and see what needs fixing. Keeping it in the lab and handling it with kid gloves accomplishes nothing for troubleshooting and maturity, and it's what's kept the type from reaching its true potential (however crappy that may be) all this time. Let the IAF flog it and see what happens. Until then it'll always be a "maybe."

Quoting Ozair (Reply 81):
Manufacturing 50 Tejas a year by 2021

I'm sure there is a planet on which this is possible, but it's not our Earth. They've made only one aircraft in over 13 months. I know at least three more are under construction, but they were nowhere near complete when I last saw them.

HAL is not even close to the initial target of 8 per year, which incidentally was supposed to be the rate for the first year of production (i.e. they should have delivered 8 by Jan 2016). Now the defence minister says they will do 8 in the next calendar year (1 Jan 2017 - 31 Dec 2017) but how likely that is we do not know. Going from there to 50 in four years is next to impossible, even if one ignores the limited industrial capacity in India, the significant foreign content in the aircraft, and the limitations of the Tejas production line itself. As built it can only handle a maximum of 16/yr, any rate increase would require more investment to make it bigger/better or build a second/third one.

You have to understand, HAL has never built ANY aircraft at a rate of 50 per year, not even when assembling kits!

Quoting Ozair (Reply 81):
probably make it the most cost effective light fighter on the market.

Not if HAL keeps screwing around, and certainly not if the entire aircraft is dependent on foreign parts. As it stands, the Tejas will need the Americans, Israelis and Russians to sign off on any export deal (engine, avionics and weapons respectively). The odds of that happening are slim to none. There's been lot's of tall talk at and after Bahrain, but let's be realistic here. I will be very surprised indeed if there is a successful Tejas sale to a non-tinpot country before 2021, and indeed after that as well.

In any case, the priority needs to be getting it into service and flogging it till it breaks. Repeatedly. Iron out the chinks and sort out production for the home market at least.

Cheers
Angad
 
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Revelation
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RE: India Confirms Order For IAF’s Rafale

Tue Mar 15, 2016 8:06 pm

A few days ago AvWeek chimed in:

http://aviationweek.com/defense/can-france-india-work-out-fighter-deal

Quote:

The Indian air force will not be receiving new Rafale fighter jets anytime soon. Despite a unique intergovernmental agreement signed by India and France in January committing to conclude a deal for 36 fully fitted Rafale jets, negotiations remain stuck on the value of the order. This is a stunning situation, bordering on the absurd. Price was precisely what bedeviled the possibility of an agreement for 126 fighters in India’s notoriously long but finally aborted Medium Multirole Combat Aircraft (M-MRCA) contest.

The fluid if not florid writing style of this article immediately reminded me of this thread! 

It seems the gap on price is about 25%, no easy gap to bridge.
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angad84
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RE: India Confirms Order For IAF’s Rafale

Wed Mar 16, 2016 6:29 am

Quoting Revelation (Reply 83):
This is a stunning situation, bordering on the absurd

That's a polite way of saying the whole affair's gone completely f***ing mental.   
Quoting Revelation (Reply 83):
The fluid if not florid writing style of this article immediately reminded me of this thread!

Heh  

FWIW, Dassault CEO Eric Trappier recently made another comment on the Indian negotiations - http://www.ainonline.com/aviation-ne...fales-india-still-being-negotiated


Cheers
A
 
BarfBag
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RE: India Confirms Order For IAF’s Rafale

Thu Mar 17, 2016 5:04 pm

Quoting angad84 (Reply 82):
In an ideal world, India would do Tejas and Gripen in parallel – the latter with a private company as a purely commercial thing, and the former as a true tech development, IPR, industrial capability programme.

Lol! Nicely played, Gripen-meister  

In an ideal world we'd do exactly what we're doing now and keep stalling the Rafale until it's officially dead, while building Tejas. So don't bother with looking further - what's ideal is already here.

With MK1A, there's far too much overlap with Gripen for the Swedebird to be a case any longer. Gripen has exactly the same issue as Rafale, just less so: it's fractionally more mature capability is not worth the multiples greater lifecycle cost it imposes.

The problem with Rafale and Gripen and anything else is that the deal took too much time, and the Tejas got good enough in that time, such that the numbers no longer work in favor of any imports. Gripen is not 2-3x better than Tejas, and Rafale is not 3-4x better than Tejas. Not even close.

Therefore Tejas detractors have now been cornered into the 'HAL production bottleneck' argument . Never mind that Rafale production rate is worse, it lacks surge supply capability, and zero political control over establishing surge capability in wartime need.

Logically, you know the plane is good enough when the argument shifts to the alleged capability of the producer instead.
 
BarfBag
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RE: India Confirms Order For IAF’s Rafale

Thu Mar 17, 2016 5:14 pm

Quoting angad84 (Reply 84):
That's a polite way of saying the whole affair's gone completely f***ing mental.   

Remind me again, what's an L1 bidder doing spending 4 years 'negotiating' about price increases ? It is NOT the fault of the Government of India that the *lowest cost bidder* can no longer live up to their bid. The French gambled that they could play L1 teaser price bait and 50% final price hike switch . They gambled wrong.

India isn't asking anything further than what they asked at the time of downselect. It's the French who have consistently come up with new issues - price, HAL warranties, the works. All of these requirements were set out 5 years ago.
 
angad84
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RE: India Confirms Order For IAF’s Rafale

Thu Mar 17, 2016 6:29 pm

Quoting BarfBag (Reply 86):
Remind me again, what's an L1 bidder doing spending 4 years 'negotiating' about price increases ? It is NOT the fault of the Government of India that the *lowest cost bidder* can no longer live up to their bid. The French gambled that they could play L1 teaser price bait and 50% final price hike switch . They gambled wrong.

No indeed. But it *is* the fault of the GoI for not walking away sometime in late 2012. It *is* the fault of the GoI for rewarding a company that is blatantly dealing in bad faith.

Small wonder that nobody wants to do business with the MoD and will only bite if there's a G2G proposal. Did you hear Pierre de Bausset earlier this week? The stuff he said would never have passed the lips of a European aerospace executive in New Delhi five years ago. But now people see GoI (wearing either party's colours) as either malicious or buffoons.

Quoting BarfBag (Reply 85):
Lol! Nicely played, Gripen-meister

Never made any bones about it. The rest of your post is so out of sync with reality that I'm not going to bother at 2355h. Got to get to bed so I'm fresh for Pokhran on the morrow. I'll send you pictures of the Tejas if I get anything decent. Maybe SP-1 can actually fly. Who knows? Maybe it'll have a couple of local wild boars for wingmen too...

Cheers
Angad
 
BarfBag
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RE: India Confirms Order For IAF’s Rafale

Thu Mar 17, 2016 6:44 pm

Quoting angad84 (Reply 87):
The rest of your post is so out of sync with reality

What reality is this ? Clearly a different one from the actual one where the Gripen was NEVER a serious contender, never made even the downselect, and the very idea that the Gripen alone, much less both Tejas and Gripen would be within IAF, never gained any sort of traction.

Face it, the Gripen was a distant #3 behind Rafale and EF2K . It was in the first batch of discards along with the Shornet and MiG35.

The Gripen always suffered from the 'barely bigger than Tejas and not sufficiently greater capability' issue that will never go away. In fact it will only get worse as Tejas increases in capability.

Good to know you're out photgraphing the Tejas now, BTW   We need our folks behind our stuff, not being apologists for imported overpriced stuff.

Quoting angad84 (Reply 87):
No indeed. But it *is* the fault of the GoI for not walking away sometime in late 2012. It *is* the fault of the GoI for rewarding a company that is blatantly dealing in bad faith.

They're far less at fault than Dassault. It is not GoI that changed the game. They've only tried to stand by the guidelines they set. It's rich to blame them for it.

They could have walked away, but not doing so is not something worth blaming. Blame requires wrongdoing as a prerequisite. GoI fundamentally did nothing *wrong*. They simply let someone who tried to game the system, keep at it.
 
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Grizzly410
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Re: RE: India Confirms Order For IAF’s Rafale

Fri Sep 16, 2016 8:45 am

BarfBag wrote:
French offer: $11 billion for 36 jets with 30% offset
Indian offer: $7 billion for 36 jets with 30% offset

Wide gap is an understatement. With that kind of difference, I don't see this deal ever being signed. The two parties are fundamentally too far apart in terms of basic price structure. IAF is better off doubling or tripling the LCA orders from 120 firm to 240-360 firm - they can buy LCAs for $35-40 million apiece, and 200odd for $7-8 billion. GoI just sent LCAs to Bahrain Airshow, where it got plenty of positive press.


French Air&Cosmos is now claiming the deal could be signed in a week (sept 23rd) if the CCS agrees for something really close to what the India wanted.
7,87 billion € for 36 jets with a 3 billion "economical offset" and delivery starting in 2019.
Link in French :
http://www.air-cosmos.com/rafale-en-ind ... mbre-82485
In order to be old and wise, one must first be young and dumb.
 
angad84
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Re: RE: India Confirms Order For IAF’s Rafale

Fri Sep 16, 2016 11:28 am

Grizzly410 wrote:
BarfBag wrote:
French offer: $11 billion for 36 jets with 30% offset
Indian offer: $7 billion for 36 jets with 30% offset

Wide gap is an understatement. With that kind of difference, I don't see this deal ever being signed. The two parties are fundamentally too far apart in terms of basic price structure. IAF is better off doubling or tripling the LCA orders from 120 firm to 240-360 firm - they can buy LCAs for $35-40 million apiece, and 200odd for $7-8 billion. GoI just sent LCAs to Bahrain Airshow, where it got plenty of positive press.


French Air&Cosmos is now claiming the deal could be signed in a week (sept 23rd) if the CCS agrees for something really close to what the India wanted.
7,87 billion € for 36 jets with a 3 billion "economical offset" and delivery starting in 2019.
Link in French :
http://www.air-cosmos.com/rafale-en-ind ... mbre-82485

I have very serious reservations about this. At best a formal agreement/MoU/LoI/whatever. Don't forget, there is no money.

My doubts about the deal going through at all are slowly being eased away, but there's no money to go signing cheques just yet.

Cheers
A
 
jouy31
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Re: India Confirms Order For IAF’s Rafale

Thu Sep 22, 2016 8:45 am

Well, this is definitely looking good :)

[url]http://www.wsj.com/articles/india-clears-dassaults-rafale-fighter-jet-deal-1474475774][/url]

NEW DELHI—India on Wednesday cleared the purchase of 36 Rafale fighter jets from France’s Dassault Aviation SA, in a long-delayed move to modernize and expand its aging fleet of combat aircraft.

The approval was given by India’s Cabinet Committee on Security, which is headed by the country’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi, said two senior government officials.
 
angad84
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Re: India Confirms Order For IAF’s Rafale

Thu Sep 22, 2016 9:02 am

Good is relative, but yes, this is as close as it has ever been! Gotta say though, folks in Delhi are so jaded by the whole Rafale saga at this point. Just going through the motions for the most part, reporting whatever's happening with none of the enthusiasm of the MMRCA heydays (2008-11).
 
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Aesma
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Re: India Confirms Order For IAF’s Rafale

Thu Sep 22, 2016 3:35 pm

It's great for French politicians too, they get praise for the same order 3 or 4 times.
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moo
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Re: India Confirms Order For IAF’s Rafale

Thu Sep 22, 2016 4:15 pm

Aesma wrote:
It's great for French politicians too, they get praise for the same order 3 or 4 times.


What happens when this falls through in 18 months...?
 
Olddog
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Re: India Confirms Order For IAF’s Rafale

Fri Sep 23, 2016 5:39 am

moo wrote:
Aesma wrote:
It's great for French politicians too, they get praise for the same order 3 or 4 times.


What happens when this falls through in 18 months...?


As the elections for next President are 9 months away, they could not care less.
When UK was in it wanted a lot of opt-outs, now it is out it wants opt-ins
 
jouy31
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Re: India Confirms Order For IAF’s Rafale

Fri Sep 23, 2016 7:46 am

The intergovernmental agreement (IGA) has been signed.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-india- ... KKCN11T0K2

India signed a deal to buy 36 Rafale fighter jets from France on Friday for close to 7.8 billion euros (6.68 billion pounds) on Friday, the country's first major acquisition of fighter planes for two decades.

France's Defence Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian inked the agreement with his Indian counterpart Manohar Parrikar in New Delhi


Image
 
jouy31
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Re: India Confirms Order For IAF’s Rafale

Fri Sep 23, 2016 8:10 am

Olddog wrote:
moo wrote:
Aesma wrote:
It's great for French politicians too, they get praise for the same order 3 or 4 times.


What happens when this falls through in 18 months...?


As the elections for next President are 9 months away, they could not care less.


It is much more difficult to kill an inter-governmental agreement than a standard contract. I don't see this falling through and I believe it is a lasting success for India, France & Dassault Aviation.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: India Confirms Order For IAF’s Rafale

Fri Sep 23, 2016 8:28 am

Don't get the process. What kind of interest are involved to take this long, the MMRCA should have been operational by now.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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Revelation
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Re: India Confirms Order For IAF’s Rafale

Sat Sep 24, 2016 7:26 pm

AvWeek has http://aviationweek.com/defense/india-s ... e-fighters:

NEW DELHI - India has signed a deal to buy 36 Rafale fighter aircraft equipped with the latest missiles and weapon systems at an estimated cost of about 7.75 billion euros ($8.7 billion).

Of the 36, 28 fighters will be single-seat and eight twin-seat.

The agreement for the purchase of the aircraft from Dassault Aviation was signed in the presence of visiting French Defense Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian and his Indian counterpart Manohar Parrikar.

The first Rafale will be delivered within 36 months, with the remaining 35 aircraft to be supplied within 60 months, an Indian Defense Ministry official said. "We have insisted on including a penalty clause should there be any delay in the delivery schedule," the official adds.


It also says "the French authorities have agreed to bring down the cost to around $8.7 billion from their initial demand of $13.4 billion" and "there is a 50% offset clause under which French industry will invest half the contract value back in India". I guess that is where all the time has been spent.
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