vr773
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Re: Germany To Choose Between Chinook And CH-53K

Fri Nov 02, 2018 6:53 pm

keesje wrote:
German STH Helo Competition May Face One-Year Delay
http://aviationweek.com/defense/german-sth-helo-competition-may-face-one-year-delay

It seems very much political at this stage. Objectively an updated Chinook seems a very strong contender. But there's LM, Airbus Militairy, Airbus Helicopter, the French, Trumps priorities..


I think it's too early to say it's political - it's more procedural. The 2019 budget simply hasn't been finalized in time for the initially planned RFP submission.

I agree with you though that it may become political quickly as soon as the public learns that the only two products are American. In that case, the strategy will likely be to simply wait out the Trump administration. Technically, the current CH-53 can still fly until 2030 so the ministry doesn't feel as much pressure from the Bundeswehr yet.
 
texl1649
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Re: Germany To Choose Between Chinook And CH-53K

Fri Nov 02, 2018 9:30 pm

I’d be fine with a roto forum but it’s a bit ironic for you to claim it will be apolitical as you’ve typed Trumps name more times than any other single poster by far about commercial and military topics.

Nothing in your aviation week link even indirectly makes it sound like politics is involved, it’s just Boeing pointing out how great their product and support are for this bid.
 
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keesje
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Re: Germany To Choose Between Chinook And CH-53K

Fri Nov 02, 2018 10:42 pm

"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
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bikerthai
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Re: Germany To Choose Between Chinook And CH-53K

Mon Nov 05, 2018 1:51 pm

keesje wrote:


It is unfortunate but it is the sign of the time that many here in the states have learn to ignore what President Trump says. We just wait to see what he does and then try to react to it.
Foreign leaders should probably do the same. Just like any publicity seeking blowhard, if everyone ignore him, he may just go away, or at least change his strategy and be a little more diplomatic.

bt
Intelligent seeks knowledge. Enlightened seeks wisdom.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Germany To Choose Between Chinook And CH-53K

Tue Nov 06, 2018 7:08 am

keesje wrote:


It has nothing to do with Trump. The whole 2019 budget has not passed the parliament yet. So logically you can not sign contracts or even a fully binding biding process, when you need money contained in the 2019 budget.

https://de.reuters.com/article/deutschl ... EKCN1M621F
 
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seahawk
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Re: Germany To Choose Between Chinook And CH-53K

Tue Nov 06, 2018 3:33 pm

And fresh from Berlin: "Next year's defense budget has now been established at 43.22 billion Euro, nearly a billion more than the original plan from May. More importantly, it includes authorization to commit to various major procurement projects extending over multiple fiscal years, including the future Heavy Transport Helicopter until 2031, multi-role Eurofighters to replace Tranche 1 aircraft until 2029, Multi-Purpose Combat Ship 180/F 126 until 2028, and German-Norwegian cooperation on the Type 212 CD submarine. If there are delays resulting in money not being used for those at particular points, it can be reshuffled into procurement of MEADS." International Press should have it soon.

https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/vertei ... t-101.html
 
texl1649
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Re: Germany To Choose Between Chinook And CH-53K

Fri Nov 09, 2018 1:18 pm

Admittedly naive question: would the avic heavy lift helo have a shot here by any chance?

This program has changed over the last two years and admittedly may be years from a flyable model, but the growth to 42 tons sure seems to imply capability to carry the loads needed here. It should be at a fairly advanced state of engineering by now. I still think this is Sikorskys to lose though.

http://aviationweek.com/vertical-flight ... ceddcde16e
 
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N328KF
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Re: Germany To Choose Between Chinook And CH-53K

Fri Nov 09, 2018 4:48 pm

texl1649 wrote:
Admittedly naive question: would the avic heavy lift helo have a shot here by any chance?

This program has changed over the last two years and admittedly may be years from a flyable model, but the growth to 42 tons sure seems to imply capability to carry the loads needed here. It should be at a fairly advanced state of engineering by now. I still think this is Sikorskys to lose though.

http://aviationweek.com/vertical-flight ... ceddcde16e


There are a variety of reasons why this won't happen, but setting aside issues of national security (the main reason it won't happen), Lockheed and Boeing are both essentially done with their work, with Boeing having a shipping and proven product. Risk and supply chain are nonissues for their offerings.
“In the age of information, ignorance is a choice.”
-Donny Miller
 
mxaxai
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Re: Germany To Choose Between Chinook And CH-53K

Fri Nov 09, 2018 6:10 pm

And now it's pretty much firm. 5,6 billion € ($ 6,4 billion) are allocated for the new helicopter until 2031.
https://www.aerobuzz.de/militar-news/hu ... h-starten/
 
texl1649
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Re: Germany To Choose Between Chinook And CH-53K

Fri Nov 09, 2018 9:17 pm

Thx. I agree it would be an incredible long shot. I'd just like to see (emotionally) the sino Russian aviation sectors build out and see a competitive international market, long term. This really is a short term need though for Germany. It's costing them a fortune keeping only about a third of those birds mission capable.
 
Ozair
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Re: Germany To Choose Between Chinook And CH-53K

Wed Nov 28, 2018 1:18 am

Looks like the heavy lift RW program continues. US$6.3 billion is a decent investment and should see quite a large order.

Timeline for German heavy-lift helo unaffected by budget ‘drama’

Germany’s delay in agreeing a defence budget should not impact the country’s efforts to procure a platform to replace its ageing CH-53G/GS/GA heavy-lift helicopters, an official from one of the two competing bidders told Jane’s on 27 November.

Speaking to Jane’s at the Berlin Security Conference, Frank Crisafulli, business development lead for heavy-lift helicopters at Sikorsky, said that the delay ahead of the 2019 defence budget being finally approved by the Bundestag budget committee earlier in November should have no real knock-on effect on the timeline for the Schwerer Transporthubschrauber (STH) heavy-lift helicopter procurement programme for the Luftwaffe.

“After the budget drama, the [EUR5.6 billion (USD6.3 billion)] funding has now been approved and we are very happy about that.

https://www.janes.com/article/84848/tim ... dget-drama
 
Ozair
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Re: Germany To Choose Between Chinook And CH-53K

Fri Dec 21, 2018 3:28 am

Every delay on the CH-53K gives the CH-47 a greater chance of winning this contract. No insight into the specific issues they are facing but it is pretty clear that issues have slipped later into the dev program than should have. The closer Germany get to a decision on this the more likely the CH-53 will be seen as a difficult development project and not have the maturity required of the aircraft.

Lockheed's $31 billion King Stallion copter delayed by new flaws

Lockheed Martin Corp.'s $31 billion King Stallion helicopter program for the U.S. Marine Corps is likely to miss its key milestone — initial combat capability a year from now — because of technical flaws found in development testing.

Resolving the problems is forcing a major restructuring of the program that's "taking longer than planned" as "additional test failures or issues" are discovered during flight tests, the Defense Contract Management Agency said in a statement.

The King Stallion, designated CH-53K, will be the same size as its predecessor, the Super Stallion, but will be able to haul almost triple the cargo, lifting 27,000 pounds, according to Lockheed. The Navy's plans to buy 200 of the copters for the Marines was a prime motivation for the contractor's $9 billion acquisition of Sikorsky Aircraft from United Technologies Corp. in 2015.

Among the flaws discovered so far: exhaust gas sucked back into the engine, limited service life for parts for the main rotor gearbox, deficiencies with the tail rotor and driveshaft and late deliveries of redesigned parts.

The Defense Contract Management Agency estimates flight testing won't be complete until May 2020, or five months after the scheduled time to declare the helicopter has an initial combat capability.

The Navy's current budget plan calls for buying 61 of the helicopters through 2023, with annual procurement spending rising to $2.3 billion from $1.3 billion this year. In the next five-year plan for fiscal 2020 through fiscal 2024, the service is tentatively proposing to buy 10 fewer of the copters than planned and to reduce procurement funding over that period by as much as $1.2 billion. The figures could change before the president's budget is presented in February.

James Geurts, the Navy's top weapons buyer, "remains concerned and is closely monitoring cost, schedule and performance as lots of work remains," his spokesman, Capt. Danny Hernandez, said in a statement.

Bill Falk, Sikorsky's program director for the CH-53K, said in an email that the company has fully staffed the flight test team "with our most experienced and seasoned engineers, pilots, maintainers and support staff." The Navy and Sikorsky are "laser-focused on successfully executing and completing the test program in a safe and efficient manner to deliver the King Stallion" and "support operational deployment in 2023-2024," he said.

Delays for the King Stallion, the first major acquisition program given a go-ahead by Defense Secretary Jim Mattis, may make it a prime candidate for congressional scrutiny as Democrats take control of the House in the new year.

The current projected unit acquisition cost, including development, is $139.5 million per aircraft, according to the latest Navy acquisition report. That's 20 percent more than the baseline set in 2005. A 1982 law would require notifying Congress if the overrun reaches or exceeds 30 percent of the baseline.

The Navy and Bethesda, Maryland-based Lockheed have placed a hold on negotiations for a second batch of six helicopters to better balance the risks of building aircraft as they're still being developed, Hernandez said.

The Navy is working with Lockheed to "re-evaluate and restructure the detailed program schedule, which includes extending completion" of the current development phase, Greg Kuntz, spokesman for the Naval Air Systems Command, said in an email.

The program's restructuring "incorporates solutions for technical challenges," including for the "exhaust gas re-ingestion" problem, he said. The Navy has "not yet made a formal determination" of a new initial combat capability date, Kuntz said.

The test program has achieved more than 1,200 flight hours, he said. But the program's flight test pace and achievements were "less than projected" because technical problems were discovered "later than expected" or were not sufficiently resolved, he said.

https://www.stripes.com/news/us/lockhee ... s-1.561284
 
columba
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Re: Germany To Choose Between Chinook And CH-53K

Fri Dec 21, 2018 8:02 am

At the moment I would bet my money on the CH 47 for various reasons anyway.....
It will forever be a McDonnell Douglas MD 80 , Boeing MD 80 sounds so wrong
 
texl1649
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Re: Germany To Choose Between Chinook And CH-53K

Wed Mar 06, 2019 12:28 pm

Tender/RFP issued. Sure enough, it’s basically CH-53K vs. Chinook. 2023 delivery target. The G model’s are just terribly expensive to maintain at this point.

https://www.janes.com/article/86953/ger ... ia=twitter
 
SuperiorPilotMe
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Re: Germany To Choose Between Chinook And CH-53K

Thu Mar 07, 2019 1:06 am

Ozair wrote:
Every delay on the CH-53K gives the CH-47 a greater chance of winning this contract. No insight into the specific issues they are facing but it is pretty clear that issues have slipped later into the dev program than should have.


This is becoming such LockMart MO it needs to seriously become the time to question their basic competency - or moreover, whatever it is in their corporate culture that makes them prone to this. They’re hardly the only ones as Musk’s ventures have the same issues too (though Telsa and their automotive pursuits seem more effected than SpaceX).

Either way I still hope LM wins I’m tiring of what’s looking more and more like a Boeing monopoly (>85% domestic mainline narrow-body production, a 100% lock on domestic widebody production until the nation itself becomes politically unviable).
Stop the stupids!- Claus Kellerman
 
ThePointblank
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Re: Germany To Choose Between Chinook And CH-53K

Thu Mar 07, 2019 6:02 am

SuperiorPilotMe wrote:
Ozair wrote:
Every delay on the CH-53K gives the CH-47 a greater chance of winning this contract. No insight into the specific issues they are facing but it is pretty clear that issues have slipped later into the dev program than should have.


This is becoming such LockMart MO it needs to seriously become the time to question their basic competency - or moreover, whatever it is in their corporate culture that makes them prone to this. They’re hardly the only ones as Musk’s ventures have the same issues too (though Telsa and their automotive pursuits seem more effected than SpaceX).

Either way I still hope LM wins I’m tiring of what’s looking more and more like a Boeing monopoly (>85% domestic mainline narrow-body production, a 100% lock on domestic widebody production until the nation itself becomes politically unviable).

Well, Sikorsky was sold to LM by UTC in 2015, in the middle of CH-53K development.

Considering Sikorsky's competence, I would point to the issues getting the CH-148 Cyclone into service... endless delays and issues, and it is only just now they are starting to become operational, 10 years late.
 
texl1649
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Re: Germany To Choose Between Chinook And CH-53K

Thu Mar 07, 2019 11:38 am

The King Stallion issues are real, but it sounds like the remaining outstanding ones aren’t that big a deal (hot gases impacting aircraft surfaces mainly). ‘None of these issues seem likely to be a deal breaker in a German evaluation (the gearbox modifications seem to be complete). It’s basically US Dep’t of testing and eval making sure life cycle costs/estimates will hold up.

“The deficiencies include airspeed indication anomalies, low reliability of the main rotor gearbox, hot gas impingement on aircraft structures, tail boom and tail rotor structural problems, overheating of main rotor dampers, fuel system anomalies, high temperatures in the number-two engine bay and hot gas ingestion by the number-two engine, which could reduce available power.

“Sikorsky continues to address design deficiencies discovered in developmental testing,” that include concerns over the service life of the main rotor gearbox falling short of the Marine Corps requirement. To correct that problem, Sikorsky is modifying internal gears and their interfaces, the report says.

“Engine and auxiliary power unit hot gas impingement on the aircraft structure during some flight regimes has not been solved,” according to DOT&E. Meanwhile, on several test flights, temperatures on the composite skin of the aircraft were approaching structural limits, requiring “termination of some maneuvers to prevent aircraft damage.” Other testing revealed performance anomalies in the CH-53K tail boom design, including unexpected vibration and resonance that threatened to damage hydraulic lines and other tail components, according to the report.“

https://www.rotorandwing.com/2019/01/31 ... y-service/
 
Ozair
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Re: Germany To Choose Between Chinook And CH-53K

Thu Apr 18, 2019 12:39 am

This development is very interesting in the context of the German tender. While the CH-47 will remain in service with a number of nations for many years to come the US Army’s decision to not acquire the Blk II aircraft in the number expected will likely impact price and long term support and sustainment.

The CH-53K becomes perhaps a more viable long term prospect, albeit likely significantly more expensive to acquire and probably operate.

What will be the fate of the Chinook? Even the Army isn’t sure

For now the Army has decided not to buy the next variant of the CH-47F Chinook cargo helicopter for the conventional force and a key Army leader has indicated that decision could change down the road while another said there’s no going back.

And while it remains unclear what the Army might ultimately do, Boeing is fighting to build its Chinook Block II variant as planned, arguing that even if the service ultimately decided to field the version with a new rotor blade design and transmission to the active force several years from now, it might be too late to repair the damage to its industrial base and production line.

The Army decided in its fiscal year 2020 budget request that the Block II Chinook would be one of the billpayers for its high priority modernization efforts. For one, the service is trying to field two brand new helicopters to replace part of the AH-64 Apache and UH-60 Black Hawk helicopter fleets in record time, but it’s also trying to develop and procure long-range precision fires, a new air-and-missile defense system, manned and robotic combat vehicles and revamp its network.

The service said it would only buy Chinook Block II helicopters in the form of the G-model — a Special Operations version. Only 69 of those will be built. Boeing is already under contract to build engineering and manufacturing development versions of the CH-47F Block II and to begin building G-model aircraft.

...

https://www.defensenews.com/digital-sho ... isnt-sure/

More at the link.
 
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bikerthai
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Re: Germany To Choose Between Chinook And CH-53K

Thu Apr 18, 2019 1:16 pm

Ozair wrote:
While the CH-47 will remain in service with a number of nations for many years to come the US Army’s decision to not acquire the Blk II aircraft in the number expected will likely impact price and long term support and sustainment.


Even if the US army decides not to buy the latest Block frames, does not mean that they will not upgrade their existing frame to enable service late into the century. And being somewhat bias, I would propose that Boeing, with all the infrastructure to in both BDS and BCA sides, would be in a better position to support legacy aircraft even after production stop.

bt
Intelligent seeks knowledge. Enlightened seeks wisdom.
 
texl1649
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Re: Germany To Choose Between Chinook And CH-53K

Sun Apr 21, 2019 12:58 am

Ye olde Vertol just seems to be at the end of it’s lifespan. Not that the original CH-53 was much younger/newer, but the K really is a new aircraft. The previous substantive improved model, for goodness sakes, was the D model in 1982. Even the block II has the ancient T55 ultimately powering it.
 
Ozair
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Re: Germany To Choose Between Chinook And CH-53K

Wed Apr 24, 2019 1:39 am

texl1649 wrote:
Ye olde Vertol just seems to be at the end of it’s lifespan. Not that the original CH-53 was much younger/newer, but the K really is a new aircraft. The previous substantive improved model, for goodness sakes, was the D model in 1982. Even the block II has the ancient T55 ultimately powering it.


The US DoD seems keen to increase CH-53K production including though funding an alternate manufacture for the main gear box, a constant source of trouble for the aircraft since development started.

Pentagon seeks alternate gearbox to mitigate CH-53K production risk

The US Department of Defense (DoD) is looking to address ongoing problems with the Sikorsky CH-53K King Stallion's main gearbox (MGB) by sourcing an alternate supplier.

The Naval Air Systems Command (NAVAIR) issued a solicitation on 22 April for alternative sources for the MGB to mitigate current production risk and secure volume increases for future production.

The CH-53K is fitted with an advanced drive system incorporating a multiple-path split-torque gearbox with load-sharing capability, which enables the helicopter to use the extra power of the three General Electric T408-GE-400 turboshaft engines.

This gearbox was one of three critical technologies on the helicopter that had not reached the desired levels of maturity by the time system development was launched in late 2005. Problems still had not been fully resolved in 2014 when a redesign of the MGB delayed the aircraft's maiden flight, which was finally achieved in October 2015. The US Office of the Director, Operational Test and Evaluation (DOT&E) 2018 report released earlier this year noted the MGB's low reliability and reduced service-life projections.

...

https://www.janes.com/article/88004/pen ... ction-risk

More at the link.

bikerthai wrote:

Even if the US army decides not to buy the latest Block frames, does not mean that they will not upgrade their existing frame to enable service late into the century. And being somewhat bias, I would propose that Boeing, with all the infrastructure to in both BDS and BCA sides, would be in a better position to support legacy aircraft even after production stop.

bt

There isn’t any indication that the CH-47 fleet will be upgraded to Blk II standard. In fact I would put that possibility as more remote than the US Army investing, as it has stated its desire to, in a new fleet of RW aircraft as per the current concepts airframes being funded. The CH-47 will likely serve for a long time to come but we will see whether the US Army will continue to fund it to the level required or upgrade to the Blk II standard outside the SF community.

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