Ozair
Posts: 3108
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Re: Future of western fighter production lines

Tue Dec 04, 2018 1:49 am

I'd suggest that the Eurofighter CEO is seeing a rosier picture of the future of the Eurofighter than what is likely to occur. He also talks about future production past 2030 based off the back of orders by partner nations. We have seen Germany mentioned as replacing Tranche One airframes with a follow on order but I don’t see more aircraft coming from Spain or Italy. Spain has to replace the classic Hornet at some point but I’m not confident the Eurofighter will take that role. I also don’t see any future Eurofighter sales from Italy.

That brings it back to exports then. Eurofighter has lost both Belgium and Denmark, is in the running for Canada, Finland, maybe Switzerland and likely Poland from the post above. In the Middle East Saudi Arabia have probably ordered as many as they are going to take, Qatar will struggle to add more to their mix and the UAE still hasn’t decided on what they are going to do so there is potential there. In Asia Malaysia is seeking a few aircraft but the rest seems reasonably sown up with Chinese, Russian or US aircraft.

Eurofighter key to securing European defence industrial sovereignty – CEO

The multinational Eurofighter project is key to securing Europe's defence industrial sovereignty as efforts shift to developing the next-generation of combat aircraft, the consortium's CEO said on 28 November.

Speaking at the Berlin Security Conference, Eurofighter CEO Volker Paltzo said that the project has been "the glue" for Europe's defence industry over the previous decades, and that it will continue to be the foundation for the continent's future defence industrial collaboration as work begins to develop the Next-Generation Fighter (NGF) as part of the wider Franco-German Future Combat Air System (FCAS).

"The Eurofighter is the current and future backbone of European defence," he said. "It has acted as a catalyst for industrial co-operation, and Europe needs more projects like this [that afford it] a sovereign defence capability."

The Eurofighter Typhoon is Europe's largest defence project, with 623 aircraft ordered across nine nations. Of these, 549 have been delivered and more than 500,000 hours flown. There are further potential orders for some of the core nations of Germany, Italy, Spain, and the United Kingdom that will take production well into the 2030s, and the aircraft itself will remain in service through to the 2060s. "As we continue to develop new technologies and capabilities, the Eurofighter will serve as a natural bridge into the FCAS project," Paltzo said. "For the long-term evolution of the Eurofighter we have a clear capability roadmap to maintain the aircraft's relevance for years to come."

This roadmap has already begun, Paltzo said, noting the work in the UK to cross-deck the air-to-ground capabilities of the Panavia Tornado under the Royal Air Force's Project Centurion. These capability enhancements could serve also as a technological pathway to the continent's future fighter efforts, Paltzo noted, with upgrades being considered including satellite communications, enhanced datalinks, low-observable (LO) communications compatibility, large area display, helmet-mounted displays, as well as improvements to the Eurojet EJ200 powerplant for greater thrust, efficiency, and weapons carriage.

https://www.janes.com/article/84866/eur ... eignty-ceo
 
Scorpius
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Re: Future of western fighter production lines

Tue Dec 04, 2018 10:44 am

Do not forget that some part of the market will be interpreted by Russia, as SU-30, SU-34, MiG-35, SU-35 may be preferred for some of these countries. In addition, there is the Yak-130 and SU-25. The combination of the aircraft I have listed can cover most of the combat aviation needs.
 
Ozair
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Re: Future of western fighter production lines

Tue Dec 04, 2018 8:43 pm

Scorpius wrote:
Do not forget that some part of the market will be interpreted by Russia, as SU-30, SU-34, MiG-35, SU-35 may be preferred for some of these countries. In addition, there is the Yak-130 and SU-25. The combination of the aircraft I have listed can cover most of the combat aviation needs.

While Russia has a small presence in the fighter market it is reasonably insignificant. If you can afford and have the political ability to acquire a western fighter jet you don’t consider Russian, or Chinese equipment. Malaysia isn’t seeking more Su-30s or new MiG-35s to replace their retired Mig-29 fleet and I cannot think of a single nation in Europe that would buy new Russian fighter jets. In the Middle East Egypt acquired both Rafales and MiG-29s but that is about it, every other order of size is going to western airframes. In Asia only those who have previously acquired Russian jets would be expected to continue, such as Vietnam and perhaps Indonesia who continue to flirt with the idea of an Su-35 order. I expect Russian aircraft to continue to win orders from stan countries in central Asia, the odd one in Asia and perhaps a few airframes in North Africa and that is about it. Those orders combined would likely be less than 100 airframes.

From your list no one has yet acquired Su-34, Algeria considered but as far as I can tell the order never went anywhere. The Su-30 will get a few top up orders from current users. MiG-35 has languished in a development hole, Iraq may have ordered but that appears unlikely. Su-35 has some prospects for sales as already mentioned in Indonesia, perhaps another order from China and Vietnam and a North African country or two may be interested but it won’t be big numbers. The YAK-130 has some prospects but is not a production fighter aircraft while future sales of the Su-25 is more likely to be remanufacture of older aircraft not new builds.

All in I expect that Russian fighters will become insignificant in 20 years, eclipsed by Chinese imports and remaining of interest to politically fringe countries.
 
LMP737
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Re: Future of western fighter production lines

Tue Dec 04, 2018 11:28 pm

Scorpius wrote:
Do not forget that some part of the market will be interpreted by Russia, as SU-30, SU-34, MiG-35, SU-35 may be preferred for some of these countries. In addition, there is the Yak-130 and SU-25. The combination of the aircraft I have listed can cover most of the combat aviation needs.


Usually countries that can't buy, for whatever reason, western aircraft. Or don't mind piss poor product support.
Never take financial advice from co-workers.
 
RJMAZ
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Re: Future of western fighter production lines

Wed Dec 05, 2018 2:27 am

The F-35 program will be how all future fighters will get run. The primary and largest operator gets the assembly line but development and part production is spread out based on their order quantity.

We will also see trade deals where militaries will buy each others products to even things out.

For example France and Germany both buy the F-35 in exchange for the USAF buying 200 A400M's. Everyone wins.

France and Germany could also both buy the Boeing trainer aircraft in exchange for another 100 A400m for the USAF.

Or you can do three way deals. For example Australia agrees to buy Brazils KC-390 transport if Brazil buys F-16's. US Army agrees to buys a couple hundred aussie made bushmaster armoured vehicles.

This kind of procurement is open to corruption but it can be made to work with proper oversight.
 
Scorpius
Posts: 810
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Re: Future of western fighter production lines

Wed Dec 05, 2018 10:28 am

LMP737 wrote:
Scorpius wrote:
Do not forget that some part of the market will be interpreted by Russia, as SU-30, SU-34, MiG-35, SU-35 may be preferred for some of these countries. In addition, there is the Yak-130 and SU-25. The combination of the aircraft I have listed can cover most of the combat aviation needs.


Usually countries that can't buy, for whatever reason, western aircraft. Or don't mind piss poor product support.

What" bad support " are we talking about? The accident rate of Russian combat aircraft is currently lower than that of the West. And any country has the opportunity to organize its own production, buying technology (example-India).
However, I only pointed out that part of the market in any case will be for Russian aircraft. Consider this in your predictions.
 
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Devilfish
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Re: Future of western fighter production lines

Thu Dec 06, 2018 4:10 am

"Everyone is entitled to my opinion." - Garfield
 
Ozair
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Re: Future of western fighter production lines

Thu Dec 06, 2018 5:15 am

Devilfish wrote:

There is the Bahrain order as well. The production line has to move and be up and running at Greenville so I don’t think there is a lot of haste with these. It is entirely possible the F-16 line will continue, once it restarts, with small top ups for another 3 years but the Taiwanese order would likely see it function until at least 2026 and probably closer to 2028 if the other orders go through.

Found this comment from Eurofighter earlier in the year,
A Eurofighter spokesperson noted that, based on current orders, the typhoon will continue to be delivered until 2024.
“We continue to pursue a number of significant opportunities around the world and are confident that we will sell more Eurofighter Typhoon aircraft internationally,” said the spokesperson.

https://www.defensenews.com/air/2018/01 ... rain-deal/

Obviously the potential for a German order helps but it is crazy to consider that the F-16 line may end up lasting longer than the Eurofighter…
 
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Dutchy
Posts: 7095
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Re: Future of western fighter production lines

Thu Dec 06, 2018 8:36 am

Ozair wrote:
Devilfish wrote:

There is the Bahrain order as well. The production line has to move and be up and running at Greenville so I don’t think there is a lot of haste with these. It is entirely possible the F-16 line will continue, once it restarts, with small top ups for another 3 years but the Taiwanese order would likely see it function until at least 2026 and probably closer to 2028 if the other orders go through.


Amazing that the F-16 will have had a production run for over 50 years :o by the time it closes.
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