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Ozair
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Re: Future of western fighter production lines

Tue Dec 04, 2018 1:49 am

I'd suggest that the Eurofighter CEO is seeing a rosier picture of the future of the Eurofighter than what is likely to occur. He also talks about future production past 2030 based off the back of orders by partner nations. We have seen Germany mentioned as replacing Tranche One airframes with a follow on order but I don’t see more aircraft coming from Spain or Italy. Spain has to replace the classic Hornet at some point but I’m not confident the Eurofighter will take that role. I also don’t see any future Eurofighter sales from Italy.

That brings it back to exports then. Eurofighter has lost both Belgium and Denmark, is in the running for Canada, Finland, maybe Switzerland and likely Poland from the post above. In the Middle East Saudi Arabia have probably ordered as many as they are going to take, Qatar will struggle to add more to their mix and the UAE still hasn’t decided on what they are going to do so there is potential there. In Asia Malaysia is seeking a few aircraft but the rest seems reasonably sown up with Chinese, Russian or US aircraft.

Eurofighter key to securing European defence industrial sovereignty – CEO

The multinational Eurofighter project is key to securing Europe's defence industrial sovereignty as efforts shift to developing the next-generation of combat aircraft, the consortium's CEO said on 28 November.

Speaking at the Berlin Security Conference, Eurofighter CEO Volker Paltzo said that the project has been "the glue" for Europe's defence industry over the previous decades, and that it will continue to be the foundation for the continent's future defence industrial collaboration as work begins to develop the Next-Generation Fighter (NGF) as part of the wider Franco-German Future Combat Air System (FCAS).

"The Eurofighter is the current and future backbone of European defence," he said. "It has acted as a catalyst for industrial co-operation, and Europe needs more projects like this [that afford it] a sovereign defence capability."

The Eurofighter Typhoon is Europe's largest defence project, with 623 aircraft ordered across nine nations. Of these, 549 have been delivered and more than 500,000 hours flown. There are further potential orders for some of the core nations of Germany, Italy, Spain, and the United Kingdom that will take production well into the 2030s, and the aircraft itself will remain in service through to the 2060s. "As we continue to develop new technologies and capabilities, the Eurofighter will serve as a natural bridge into the FCAS project," Paltzo said. "For the long-term evolution of the Eurofighter we have a clear capability roadmap to maintain the aircraft's relevance for years to come."

This roadmap has already begun, Paltzo said, noting the work in the UK to cross-deck the air-to-ground capabilities of the Panavia Tornado under the Royal Air Force's Project Centurion. These capability enhancements could serve also as a technological pathway to the continent's future fighter efforts, Paltzo noted, with upgrades being considered including satellite communications, enhanced datalinks, low-observable (LO) communications compatibility, large area display, helmet-mounted displays, as well as improvements to the Eurojet EJ200 powerplant for greater thrust, efficiency, and weapons carriage.

https://www.janes.com/article/84866/eur ... eignty-ceo
 
Scorpius
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Re: Future of western fighter production lines

Tue Dec 04, 2018 10:44 am

Do not forget that some part of the market will be interpreted by Russia, as SU-30, SU-34, MiG-35, SU-35 may be preferred for some of these countries. In addition, there is the Yak-130 and SU-25. The combination of the aircraft I have listed can cover most of the combat aviation needs.
 
Ozair
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Re: Future of western fighter production lines

Tue Dec 04, 2018 8:43 pm

Scorpius wrote:
Do not forget that some part of the market will be interpreted by Russia, as SU-30, SU-34, MiG-35, SU-35 may be preferred for some of these countries. In addition, there is the Yak-130 and SU-25. The combination of the aircraft I have listed can cover most of the combat aviation needs.

While Russia has a small presence in the fighter market it is reasonably insignificant. If you can afford and have the political ability to acquire a western fighter jet you don’t consider Russian, or Chinese equipment. Malaysia isn’t seeking more Su-30s or new MiG-35s to replace their retired Mig-29 fleet and I cannot think of a single nation in Europe that would buy new Russian fighter jets. In the Middle East Egypt acquired both Rafales and MiG-29s but that is about it, every other order of size is going to western airframes. In Asia only those who have previously acquired Russian jets would be expected to continue, such as Vietnam and perhaps Indonesia who continue to flirt with the idea of an Su-35 order. I expect Russian aircraft to continue to win orders from stan countries in central Asia, the odd one in Asia and perhaps a few airframes in North Africa and that is about it. Those orders combined would likely be less than 100 airframes.

From your list no one has yet acquired Su-34, Algeria considered but as far as I can tell the order never went anywhere. The Su-30 will get a few top up orders from current users. MiG-35 has languished in a development hole, Iraq may have ordered but that appears unlikely. Su-35 has some prospects for sales as already mentioned in Indonesia, perhaps another order from China and Vietnam and a North African country or two may be interested but it won’t be big numbers. The YAK-130 has some prospects but is not a production fighter aircraft while future sales of the Su-25 is more likely to be remanufacture of older aircraft not new builds.

All in I expect that Russian fighters will become insignificant in 20 years, eclipsed by Chinese imports and remaining of interest to politically fringe countries.
 
LMP737
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Re: Future of western fighter production lines

Tue Dec 04, 2018 11:28 pm

Scorpius wrote:
Do not forget that some part of the market will be interpreted by Russia, as SU-30, SU-34, MiG-35, SU-35 may be preferred for some of these countries. In addition, there is the Yak-130 and SU-25. The combination of the aircraft I have listed can cover most of the combat aviation needs.


Usually countries that can't buy, for whatever reason, western aircraft. Or don't mind piss poor product support.
Never take financial advice from co-workers.
 
RJMAZ
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Re: Future of western fighter production lines

Wed Dec 05, 2018 2:27 am

The F-35 program will be how all future fighters will get run. The primary and largest operator gets the assembly line but development and part production is spread out based on their order quantity.

We will also see trade deals where militaries will buy each others products to even things out.

For example France and Germany both buy the F-35 in exchange for the USAF buying 200 A400M's. Everyone wins.

France and Germany could also both buy the Boeing trainer aircraft in exchange for another 100 A400m for the USAF.

Or you can do three way deals. For example Australia agrees to buy Brazils KC-390 transport if Brazil buys F-16's. US Army agrees to buys a couple hundred aussie made bushmaster armoured vehicles.

This kind of procurement is open to corruption but it can be made to work with proper oversight.
 
Scorpius
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Re: Future of western fighter production lines

Wed Dec 05, 2018 10:28 am

LMP737 wrote:
Scorpius wrote:
Do not forget that some part of the market will be interpreted by Russia, as SU-30, SU-34, MiG-35, SU-35 may be preferred for some of these countries. In addition, there is the Yak-130 and SU-25. The combination of the aircraft I have listed can cover most of the combat aviation needs.


Usually countries that can't buy, for whatever reason, western aircraft. Or don't mind piss poor product support.

What" bad support " are we talking about? The accident rate of Russian combat aircraft is currently lower than that of the West. And any country has the opportunity to organize its own production, buying technology (example-India).
However, I only pointed out that part of the market in any case will be for Russian aircraft. Consider this in your predictions.
 
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Devilfish
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Re: Future of western fighter production lines

Thu Dec 06, 2018 4:10 am

"Everyone is entitled to my opinion." - Garfield
 
Ozair
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Re: Future of western fighter production lines

Thu Dec 06, 2018 5:15 am

Devilfish wrote:

There is the Bahrain order as well. The production line has to move and be up and running at Greenville so I don’t think there is a lot of haste with these. It is entirely possible the F-16 line will continue, once it restarts, with small top ups for another 3 years but the Taiwanese order would likely see it function until at least 2026 and probably closer to 2028 if the other orders go through.

Found this comment from Eurofighter earlier in the year,
A Eurofighter spokesperson noted that, based on current orders, the typhoon will continue to be delivered until 2024.
“We continue to pursue a number of significant opportunities around the world and are confident that we will sell more Eurofighter Typhoon aircraft internationally,” said the spokesperson.

https://www.defensenews.com/air/2018/01 ... rain-deal/

Obviously the potential for a German order helps but it is crazy to consider that the F-16 line may end up lasting longer than the Eurofighter…
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Future of western fighter production lines

Thu Dec 06, 2018 8:36 am

Ozair wrote:
Devilfish wrote:

There is the Bahrain order as well. The production line has to move and be up and running at Greenville so I don’t think there is a lot of haste with these. It is entirely possible the F-16 line will continue, once it restarts, with small top ups for another 3 years but the Taiwanese order would likely see it function until at least 2026 and probably closer to 2028 if the other orders go through.


Amazing that the F-16 will have had a production run for over 50 years :o by the time it closes.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
Ozair
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Re: Future of western fighter production lines

Tue Jun 11, 2019 8:11 am

Looks like any of the companies hoping for a Malaysian order for new fighters jets is going to have to wait at least another ten years...

Malaysia to buy used Kuwaiti fighter jets to expand fleet

The Royal Malaysian Air Force (RMAF) plans to acquire used Kuwaiti fighter jets while waiting to purchase new aircraft in the next 10 to 15 years.

RMAF chief General Affendi Buang said Kuwait is planning to phase out its existing fleet of Hornet FA-18C and 18D aircraft as it waits for the delivery of the Boeing Super Hornet aircraft in 2021.

“I think we will grab some of the aircraft to add on to our current fleet, at least while waiting for the new multirole combat aircraft (MRCA) programme, so we have a slightly bigger fleet than what we have today,” he told reporters during a special press conference on the RMAF’s anniversary celebration on June 1.

However, he said talks between the two air forces had yet to start.

Affendi said that RMAF was still seeking government approval for its light-combat aircraft (LCA) programme, as stated in its Capability 55 (CAP55) blueprint.

The air force is still in the process of sending out requests for information (RFI) for feedback from the various suppliers, or original equipment manufacturers (OEM), about their aircraft.

He added that in the CAP55 blueprint, the LCA programme would pan out over three phases and that allocations for 12 LCA would be requested each time the government comes up with a new five-year development plan – the next one to be tabled next year.

“The BAE Hawk aircrafts can go at least for the next 10 years, by then we are hoping that the LCA programme will be approved.

“Once we get at least 12 LCA, we will start phasing out older planes which at that time would be almost 25 years old.

“That will be timely, although we wish we can get it earlier. But if we can get the LCA in the time period mentioned, it will not be too critical,” he said.

Last June, Affendi revealed that 40% of its assets had surpassed their 20-year lifespan.

...

https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/categ ... and-fleet/

Expanding their classic Hornet fleet makes sense and I expect the Kuwaiti airframes probably have the lowest hours on them compared to other classic Hornets available. Also interesting to see the Malaysian plans for an LCA continue.
 
ThePointblank
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Re: Future of western fighter production lines

Thu Jun 13, 2019 6:44 am

Ozair wrote:
Looks like any of the companies hoping for a Malaysian order for new fighters jets is going to have to wait at least another ten years...

Malaysia to buy used Kuwaiti fighter jets to expand fleet

The Royal Malaysian Air Force (RMAF) plans to acquire used Kuwaiti fighter jets while waiting to purchase new aircraft in the next 10 to 15 years.

RMAF chief General Affendi Buang said Kuwait is planning to phase out its existing fleet of Hornet FA-18C and 18D aircraft as it waits for the delivery of the Boeing Super Hornet aircraft in 2021.

“I think we will grab some of the aircraft to add on to our current fleet, at least while waiting for the new multirole combat aircraft (MRCA) programme, so we have a slightly bigger fleet than what we have today,” he told reporters during a special press conference on the RMAF’s anniversary celebration on June 1.

However, he said talks between the two air forces had yet to start.

Affendi said that RMAF was still seeking government approval for its light-combat aircraft (LCA) programme, as stated in its Capability 55 (CAP55) blueprint.

The air force is still in the process of sending out requests for information (RFI) for feedback from the various suppliers, or original equipment manufacturers (OEM), about their aircraft.

He added that in the CAP55 blueprint, the LCA programme would pan out over three phases and that allocations for 12 LCA would be requested each time the government comes up with a new five-year development plan – the next one to be tabled next year.

“The BAE Hawk aircrafts can go at least for the next 10 years, by then we are hoping that the LCA programme will be approved.

“Once we get at least 12 LCA, we will start phasing out older planes which at that time would be almost 25 years old.

“That will be timely, although we wish we can get it earlier. But if we can get the LCA in the time period mentioned, it will not be too critical,” he said.

Last June, Affendi revealed that 40% of its assets had surpassed their 20-year lifespan.

...

https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/categ ... and-fleet/

Expanding their classic Hornet fleet makes sense and I expect the Kuwaiti airframes probably have the lowest hours on them compared to other classic Hornets available. Also interesting to see the Malaysian plans for an LCA continue.

I hope the Malaysians replace the engines on the ex-Kuwaiti examples, and does a through cleaning of the air frames once they arrive in Malaysia. The fine sand in the Persian Gulf gets into everything!

Also, I've heard via rumours that at the time when Canada was considering the Kuwaiti air frames, but were discouraged from it because the Kuwaiti examples were in far worst shape than their low hours and age suggested.
 
YIMBY
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Re: Future of western fighter production lines

Thu Jun 13, 2019 10:47 am

Will there be competition of Finnish and Swiss Hornets when they are replaced?
 
Ozair
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Re: Future of western fighter production lines

Thu Jun 13, 2019 11:59 am

YIMBY wrote:
Will there be competition of Finnish and Swiss Hornets when they are replaced?

Not too.many existing users by the time those fleets are available. They will likely be, apart from Malaysia, the last operators depending on how long Spain takes to replace theirs.
 
YIMBY
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Re: Future of western fighter production lines

Thu Jun 13, 2019 2:31 pm

Ozair wrote:
YIMBY wrote:
Will there be competition of Finnish and Swiss Hornets when they are replaced?

Not too.many existing users by the time those fleets are available. They will likely be, apart from Malaysia, the last operators depending on how long Spain takes to replace theirs.


I would not bet Canada to make decision before that.
 
Ozair
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Re: Future of western fighter production lines

Thu Jun 13, 2019 3:19 pm

YIMBY wrote:
Ozair wrote:
YIMBY wrote:
Will there be competition of Finnish and Swiss Hornets when they are replaced?

Not too.many existing users by the time those fleets are available. They will likely be, apart from Malaysia, the last operators depending on how long Spain takes to replace theirs.


I would not bet Canada to make decision before that.

Yeah certainly possible they will delay that long given the cluster that has been their replacement program so far.
 
hmmwv
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Re: Future of western fighter production lines

Mon Jun 17, 2019 10:02 pm

ThePointblank wrote:
Also, I've heard via rumours that at the time when Canada was considering the Kuwaiti air frames, but were discouraged from it because the Kuwaiti examples were in far worst shape than their low hours and age suggested.


That's shocking to hear, considering Kuwait has some of the most modern facilities, and the low humidity should help preserve air frames, plus the aircraft are not subjected to the punishment of carrier landings. I guess it must be a combination of inadequate maintenance, fine sand, and sea salt.
 
ThePointblank
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Re: Future of western fighter production lines

Tue Jun 18, 2019 9:53 am

hmmwv wrote:
ThePointblank wrote:
Also, I've heard via rumours that at the time when Canada was considering the Kuwaiti air frames, but were discouraged from it because the Kuwaiti examples were in far worst shape than their low hours and age suggested.


That's shocking to hear, considering Kuwait has some of the most modern facilities, and the low humidity should help preserve air frames, plus the aircraft are not subjected to the punishment of carrier landings. I guess it must be a combination of inadequate maintenance, fine sand, and sea salt.

My guess based upon my knowledge of the Hornet is that Kuwait never did a centre barrel replacement on their Hornets. The centre barrel is a key and critical component that determines the service life of the airframe, and many Hornet customers have chosen to perform a centre barrel replacement on their aircraft to extend the service life. The Hornet has had issues with the centre barrel being the primary life-limiting airframe component on the aircraft, and thus a replacement would allow a much extended service life for the aircraft.
 
SuperiorPilotMe
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Re: Future of western fighter production lines

Tue Jun 18, 2019 2:52 pm

The F-15 and F-18 are in a weird state of limbo.

Production is winding down for air forces switching to an all-5th gen fleet but ramping up for air forces that for various reasons can’t practically do so.

Boeing seems to be touting stealth features more frequently on the Super Bug especially given an apparent lack of interest on Silent Eagle but the F-15 seems to be better coasting on a superior counter-air reputation.

The Super Bug also has the unique capability to fly off a carrier, but that also appeals to exactly one nation on the entire planet.

Either way I can see production deep into the 30s. Not even the B-52 can claim that record.

The F-16 is a lame duck. It and the Gripen are the F-5s of the 21st century, providing supersonic tactical air for the poorest air forces that for whatever reason don’t want to go Russian.

Tyhpoon and Rafale are going to be in production until the very moment its replacements start rolling off the line instead. Even then like the F-15 they likely have high export appeal.
Stop the stupids!- Claus Kellerman
 
hmmwv
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Re: Future of western fighter production lines

Tue Jun 18, 2019 6:38 pm

SuperiorPilotMe wrote:
The Super Bug also has the unique capability to fly off a carrier, but that also appeals to exactly one nation on the entire planet.


By one nation do you mean the US, if yes then you should also count India.
 
SuperiorPilotMe
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Re: Future of western fighter production lines

Wed Jun 19, 2019 11:16 pm

We’ll see, alot of people say otherwise, people like SAAB et al.
Stop the stupids!- Claus Kellerman
 
sovietjet
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Re: Future of western fighter production lines

Thu Jun 20, 2019 8:59 pm

Perhaps everyone here has missed the fact that Bulgaria is close to buying F-16s as well.
 
SuperiorPilotMe
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Re: Future of western fighter production lines

Fri Jun 21, 2019 12:07 am

sovietjet wrote:
Perhaps everyone here has missed the fact that Bulgaria is close to buying F-16s as well.


Yes because Bulgaria is going to inevitably buy into huge numbers that will support production lines for years to come.

And people wonder why I treat everyone here with utter contempt.
Stop the stupids!- Claus Kellerman
 
Ozair
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Re: Future of western fighter production lines

Fri Jun 21, 2019 4:27 pm

sovietjet wrote:
Perhaps everyone here has missed the fact that Bulgaria is close to buying F-16s as well.

We still have a thread about it that I post news in occasionally. As well as Slovakia, Bahrain, Taiwan potentially ordering more, Morocco and the looming Indian competition it could still be in production 6-10 years from now.

SuperiorPilotMe wrote:
We’ll see, alot of people say otherwise, people like SAAB et al.

Saab and Eurofighter have both proposed carrier capable versions which have never gone anywhere. Gripen has already been removed from the Indian Navy selection while the Rafale, SH and MiG-29/35 remain. No other navy has a current need for a CATOBAR or even STOBAR aircraft that won't manufacture it themselves.


I see the following with current western fighter aircraft

Gripen C - Is done, will have no more orders. I don't expect Botswana to go any further.
Gripen E - Sweden and Brazil, perhaps another couple of smaller nations and likely no more. Removed from Swiss competition, unlikely for Canada but perhaps a chance in Finland.
F-15 - The USAF order for F-15X has brought some new life to the line that would have likely closed down after Qatar. Perhaps some top up Israel orders but it will likely be in production until the USAF stops buying EX, which may not be until 2030.
F-16 - As above, still a few competitions to go and interest continues from smaller nations especially in Eastern Europe.
F-18 - I don't expect the SH to win any more competitions based on current experience and the only other operators are Australia (sole source) and Kuwait (sole source). The USN will keep the line ticking over with new builds and upgrades and hence will likely be available until at least 2025.
F-35 - Continue winning competitions with production continuing likely into at least the 2040s.
Eurofighter - Italian line will close after Kuwait is completed. German line will continue with a top up German Air Force order but close once that is complete. British line will close after Qatar and Saudi are fulfilled. Spanish line is dependent on which way they go with the classic Hornet replacement but likely a close soon as well. Expect for Germany I don't see a Eurofighter line going past 2025.
Rafale - Already known that incremental French orders will continue into the early 2030s. Given the build rate is so low it will continue on but I expect export orders to dry up post 2025.

The big open competitions coming up are, in approx to order of volume,
India
Canada
Finland
Switzerland

Apart from India the other three expect delivery by 2031 so I expect by early 2030s that only F-35 and Rafale will be still in production. Gripen will likely be available for order but no active line.
 
SuperiorPilotMe
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Re: Future of western fighter production lines

Fri Jun 21, 2019 10:32 pm

Ozair wrote:
Saab and Eurofighter have both proposed carrier capable versions which have never gone anywhere. Gripen has already been removed from the Indian Navy selection while the Rafale, SH and MiG-29/35 remain. No other navy has a current need for a CATOBAR or even STOBAR aircraft that won't manufacture it themselves.

...



F-18 - I don't expect the SH to win any more competitions based on current experience and the only other operators are Australia (sole source) and Kuwait (sole source). The USN will keep the line ticking over with new builds and upgrades and hence will likely be available until at least 2025.


Is this a tacit implication you expect Rafale or MiG to win the Indian order?
Stop the stupids!- Claus Kellerman
 
Ozair
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Re: Future of western fighter production lines

Sat Jun 22, 2019 8:06 am

SuperiorPilotMe wrote:
Ozair wrote:
Saab and Eurofighter have both proposed carrier capable versions which have never gone anywhere. Gripen has already been removed from the Indian Navy selection while the Rafale, SH and MiG-29/35 remain. No other navy has a current need for a CATOBAR or even STOBAR aircraft that won't manufacture it themselves.

...



F-18 - I don't expect the SH to win any more competitions based on current experience and the only other operators are Australia (sole source) and Kuwait (sole source). The USN will keep the line ticking over with new builds and upgrades and hence will likely be available until at least 2025.


Is this a tacit implication you expect Rafale or MiG to win the Indian order?

With India all bets are off and I don't have any idea how they will go for the Navy selection. My understanding is that the SH is preferred but that means literally nothing and the competition could go on for another five years without a selection.
 
trex8
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Re: Future of western fighter production lines

Fri Jun 28, 2019 8:44 pm

Taiwan could take 66 F16V, there have been reports they may even take another 6 attrition replacements.
https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3655421
 
Ozair
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Re: Future of western fighter production lines

Fri Jun 28, 2019 9:14 pm

trex8 wrote:
Taiwan could take 66 F16V, there have been reports they may even take another 6 attrition replacements.
https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3655421

That swings back and forth every few years. At the moment I believe they are happy to take the Vs as refurbished from their existing fleet but the Mirage fleet costs them significantly more to operate and I expect they would like to replace them sooner rather than later. In the absence of any other airframes, and avoiding the crazy idea of taking F-15Cs out of the boneyard, more new build F-16Vs makes a lot of sense.

Further to the SH info above, a report recently from one of the journals indicated that the SH production line was going to be open until 2033 with the USN orders and upgrade work funded.
 
trex8
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Re: Future of western fighter production lines

Sat Jun 29, 2019 4:12 pm

Ozair wrote:
trex8 wrote:
Taiwan could take 66 F16V, there have been reports they may even take another 6 attrition replacements.
https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3655421

That swings back and forth every few years. At the moment I believe they are happy to take the Vs as refurbished from their existing fleet but the Mirage fleet costs them significantly more to operate and I expect they would like to replace them sooner rather than later. In the absence of any other airframes, and avoiding the crazy idea of taking F-15Cs out of the boneyard, more new build F-16Vs makes a lot of sense.

Further to the SH info above, a report recently from one of the journals indicated that the SH production line was going to be open until 2033 with the USN orders and upgrade work funded.

Yes they have been thinking about more F16s since Bush 2, but have been told not to even ask officially in previous administrations , plus every time an administration changes in Taiwan something else gets messed up in local politics. This time they been told they can send an official request for an offer/pricing and have done so.
First upgraded F16 block 20s were show cased recently during the HanKuang exercises operating off highways. But program may be in for some problems with lack of personnel at AIDC to do the work as scheduled.
 
Ozair
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Re: Future of western fighter production lines

Wed Jul 10, 2019 1:39 pm

Fitting with this thread is this article that is an analysis of fighter production for the next ten years. Gives a great view of how much of an impact the high production rate of the F-35 has on the number that will be delivered compared to other aircraft. At the moment production peaks in the early 2020s but with a few competitions to start delivering aircraft in the middle to late 20s I expect the rate will continue around that ~370 number.

Fighter Aircraft Market Worth $260B Over Next 10 Years

Production of fighter aircraft is on the rise. In Forecast International’s newly updated study “The Market for Fighter Aircraft,” FI projects that a total of 3,401 fighter aircraft will be produced from 2019 through 2028, more than 17 percent (499 units) higher than the number of aircraft that manufacturers produced during the previous 10 years, when fighter production averaged about 290 aircraft per year.

Production will peak at 371 aircraft in 2021 and 2022. Annual production will then decline through 2027, with production falling to 313 aircraft that year.

...

https://dsm.forecastinternational.com/w ... -10-years/

Image

Image
 
Ozair
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Re: Future of western fighter production lines

Fri Jul 19, 2019 4:19 am

A good selection of vendors for Columbia to choose from, the Gripen, the Eurofighter, F-16V and the Kfir NG (not sure why Rafale is not mentioned in the article?). The Gripen seems well poised given its arrival in Brazil in the next few years but not sure how much budget Columbia has to work with. The Kfir NG is an interesting option and could see the aircraft keep flying for a long time but likely comes with some risk given the change of systems/engine involved.

An interesting little competition to keep watch of.

Saab offers Gripens to Colombia to replace Kfirs

Saab AB is offering its single-seat and dual-seat Gripen fighters to the Colombia Air Force (Fuerza Aérea Colombiana: FAC) to replace its Israeli Aerospace Industries (IAI) Kfir combat aircraft fleet.

Jonas Hjelm, Saab's head of business area aeronautics, told Jane's on 10 July from the Feria Aeronáutica Internacional (F-AIR) show in Colombia that the company offered 12 single-seat Gripen Es and 3 dual-seat Gripen Fs. He said that Colombia is looking for multirole air superiority fighters and that Saab believes the Gripens perfectly fit these requirements.

...

https://www.janes.com/article/89837/saa ... lace-kfirs
 
mxaxai
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Re: Future of western fighter production lines

Sat Jul 20, 2019 8:31 am

Ozair wrote:
A good selection of vendors for Columbia to choose from,[...] the Eurofighter

In the past, Colombia was supposedly interested in used Eurofighters from Spain. I would expect nothing different in this competition today. New Eurofighters would be too expensive for Colombia.
Whether Spain might then seek to replace older Tranche 2 models with new Tranche 3b jets is, of course, another topic.

The US appear to provide strong political support for a F-16 sale. Fascinating how worried the US forces are that Russian or Chinese jets might be difficult to maintain...
The U.S. Air Force is offering Bogotá the latest version of Lockheed Martin’s F-16 fighter jets, Maj. Gen. Andrew Croft, the commander of Air Forces Southern, told Foreign Policy in a recent phone interview.

The addition of an estimated 15 F-16 to Colombia’s arsenal would “be a great advancement for not only their capability to defend their sovereign air space” but would also help enable interoperability with U.S. forces, Croft said during a visit to Colombia, where he attended a major air show and met with senior Colombian military officials.
...
“Selling something like an F-16 to a nation like Colombia builds that long-term relationship and also prevents the Russians or the Chinese from selling them a system that then becomes very difficult or impossible to maintain,” Croft said.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/07/18/al ... -colombia/
 
tomcat
Posts: 503
Joined: Thu Sep 28, 2000 4:14 am

Re: Future of western fighter production lines

Sat Jul 20, 2019 10:06 pm

Here is an update about Greece fleet planning:
1) 84 F-16C/D Block 52+ will be upgraded to the F-16V standard. The upgrade is due to be completed by 2027. This 1 billion dollars contract will contribute to keep the F-16 supply chain busy for a while, even though it won't feed the F-16 FAL.
https://www.janes.com/article/85383/lm-contracted-to-upgrade-greek-f-16s

2) On top of this, Greece has recently shown some interest in buying up to 30 F-35s (see article from April 2019 below). I believe that Greece's interest in the F-35 is closely related to Turkey's build-up of its F-35 fleet. Now that this build-up is at least temporarily compromised, Greece's interest in the F-35 might remain on the back burner for a while.
https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/greece-eyes-f-35s-as-f-16-replacement-457481/
http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkish-fm-us-counterpart-discuss-f-35-s-400-by-phone-145117

Further north, the Netherlands are planning a small top-up order for 8 or 9 F-35s:
https://dsm.forecastinternational.com/wordpress/2019/07/19/netherlands-intends-to-buy-additional-f-35s/
 
Ozair
Posts: 5083
Joined: Mon Jan 31, 2005 8:38 am

Re: Future of western fighter production lines

Sun Jul 21, 2019 10:44 am

mxaxai wrote:
In the past, Colombia was supposedly interested in used Eurofighters from Spain. I would expect nothing different in this competition today. New Eurofighters would be too expensive for Colombia.
Whether Spain might then seek to replace older Tranche 2 models with new Tranche 3b jets is, of course, another topic.

Makes sense, they certainly don't need new jets although it appears that new F-16s may be one of the potential options.

mxaxai wrote:
The US appear to provide strong political support for a F-16 sale. Fascinating how worried the US forces are that Russian or Chinese jets might be difficult to maintain...

I don't know about Chinese jets but there is enough evidence that his claims on Russian jets being difficult to maintain are credible. Perhaps it has to do with those nations acquiring Russian jets but the Malaysians, Indians and Indonesians have all struggled to maintain their Russian fleets.

tomcat wrote:
Here is an update about Greece fleet planning:
1) 84 F-16C/D Block 52+ will be upgraded to the F-16V standard. The upgrade is due to be completed by 2027. This 1 billion dollars contract will contribute to keep the F-16 supply chain busy for a while, even though it won't feed the F-16 FAL.
https://www.janes.com/article/85383/lm-contracted-to-upgrade-greek-f-16s

2) On top of this, Greece has recently shown some interest in buying up to 30 F-35s (see article from April 2019 below). I believe that Greece's interest in the F-35 is closely related to Turkey's build-up of its F-35 fleet. Now that this build-up is at least temporarily compromised, Greece's interest in the F-35 might remain on the back burner for a while.
https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/greece-eyes-f-35s-as-f-16-replacement-457481/
http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkish-fm-us-counterpart-discuss-f-35-s-400-by-phone-145117

I agree, the F-35 talk will likely die down in Greece now. I expect they will acquire the jet at some point in the future but there is no need to hurry. A mid 2030s acquisition makes sense when hopefully the economy is in better shape.
 
Ozair
Posts: 5083
Joined: Mon Jan 31, 2005 8:38 am

Re: Future of western fighter production lines

Thu Aug 01, 2019 11:03 pm

Anyone like to suggest who might be the launch customer for the fighter version of the M-346? I have seen suggestions that it is Austria as a replacement for the Saab 105s. Perhaps an African country who is seeking a baseline capability but not wanting to complexity of a larger or more capable airframe?

Fighter variant of M-346 secures launch deal

Leonardo has secured a launch order for six examples of the M-346FA – the fighter attack variant of its advanced jet trainer – from a major "international customer".

Speaking on a half-year results call on 30 July, Leonardo chief executive Alessandro Profumo said the deal was signed during the last month.

"We have just signed the first order for six M-346 fighter-attack planes, the new version of our M-346 platform, with an international customer," he says.

"This is important because we have a large customer for this new order of the 346."

...

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... al-460019/
 
trex8
Posts: 5542
Joined: Sat Nov 02, 2002 9:04 am

Re: Future of western fighter production lines

Sat Aug 17, 2019 3:34 am

Seems senate and house foreign relations committees have been given heads up of the sale of 66 F16V to Taiwan though no DSCA formal notification yet to congress
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politic ... 16-fighter
 
Ozair
Posts: 5083
Joined: Mon Jan 31, 2005 8:38 am

Re: Future of western fighter production lines

Sat Aug 17, 2019 7:25 am

trex8 wrote:
Seems senate and house foreign relations committees have been given heads up of the sale of 66 F16V to Taiwan though no DSCA formal notification yet to congress
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politic ... 16-fighter

Wow, with that production as well as other orders the F-16 line may continue in Greenville until 2030...

Good for Taiwan to eventually have an all F-16V fleet, I expect this order may finally see the Mirages and F-5s retired from service.
 
Ozair
Posts: 5083
Joined: Mon Jan 31, 2005 8:38 am

Re: Future of western fighter production lines

Tue Sep 10, 2019 11:22 pm

Malaysia is considering replacing its newest fighter fleet, the SU-30MKM, as part of a wider replacement of fighter aircraft likely to include replacing the Classic Hornet and now retired MiG-29s with the BAE Hawk being replaced by a separate competition. Reportedly Russian aircraft remain the favourite but given the continued sustainment issues that Malaysia has had with its Russian aircraft I could see one of the Western manufacturers finally grabbing this contest.

Malaysia is about as bad as India though when it comes to buying new aircraft so this could drag on for a long time…

KL studying possible Su-30MKM replacement

Kuala Lumpur is studying options for replacing its Sukhoi Su-30MKM fighters, but its poor acquisition record suggests a long process.

Media reports from Malaysia quote defence minister Mohamad Sabu as saying that studies about new jets are underway, with an eye to replace the jets with new aircraft from Russia - he did not mention specific types.

He stressed, however, that cost is a key consideration. Prime minister Mahathir Mohamad was also quoted recently as saying that Malaysia needs to be mindful of its budget when considering new combat aircraft.

...

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... nt-460736/
 
Ozair
Posts: 5083
Joined: Mon Jan 31, 2005 8:38 am

Re: Future of western fighter production lines

Fri Sep 27, 2019 1:18 am

The KF-X program continues along. I think the expectations of 350 units is very ambitious given South Korea only expects to take 120 aircraft and Indonesia would likely struggle to take even 50.

KF-X fighter prototype to be rolled out in first half of 2021, DAPA confirms

Korea Aerospace Industries (KAI) is expected to complete construction of the first KF-X fighter aircraft prototype by the first half of 2021 and conduct the first test flight of the platform a year later, South Korea's Defence Acquisition Programme Administration (DAPA) confirmed in a 26 September statement.

DAPA said that the critical design phase of the aircraft has now been completed, allowing the KF-X/IF-X project, which stands for Korean Fighter eXperimental/Indonesian Fighter eXperimental, to move on to the next phase: prototype construction.

Development of the single-seat, twin-engined, multirole aircraft began in January 2016, with the preliminary design of the KF-X being finalised in June 2018. Production work on the first prototype began in February 2018, with KAI announcing at the time that it had started manufacturing the aircraft's bulk head.

As Jane's reported, the KF-X development programme envisages the production of six prototypes, followed by four years of trials and the completion of development by mid-2026. Serial production of the aircraft will take place during 2026-32, with an initial 120 units intended to replace the Republic of Korea Air Force's (RoKAF's) ageing fleets of F-4E Phantom and F-5E Tiger II aircraft.

Total production is expected to exceed 350 units, including a quota for exports.

...

https://www.janes.com/article/91535/kf- ... a-confirms

Image
 
Ozair
Posts: 5083
Joined: Mon Jan 31, 2005 8:38 am

Re: Future of western fighter production lines

Tue Oct 01, 2019 1:23 am

Last BAE Eurofighter delivered to the RAF. The line will manufacture the jets for Qatar and potentially some of a top up order from Saudi Arabia. If we look at where future Eurofighter sales for BAE could come from things are not looking great. I think Turkey would be a good option but I doubt, as with the reported Suadi top up, they would be assembled in Britain. There is probably life left for the components manufacturers as other partners may top up their Eurofighter orders, such as Germany’s reported T4 plans.

RAF receives final Eurofighter Typhoon

The UK Royal Air Force (RAF) has received the last of its Eurofighter Typhoon FGR4 multirole combat aircraft into service, with the announcement on 27 September that deliveries from BAE Systems Warton have been concluded.

Delivery of the final Tranche 3 aircraft brings to an end a production run of 160 Typhoons for the RAF that began in 2003.

The RAF fields eight Typhoon units with 1 (Fighter), 2 (Army Cooperation), 6, and 9 (Bomber) squadrons based at RAF Lossiemouth in Scotland; and 3 (Fighter), 11 (Fighter), and 12 (Bomber) squadrons based at RAF Coningsby in England. There is also a permanent detachment (1435 Flight) located on the Falkland Islands.

As noted by BAE Systems, with RAF production now concluded, the line will begin work on 22 aircraft for Qatar, with deliveries to begin in 2022. Saudi Arabia signed a memorandum of intent (MOI) for 48 additional aircraft in March, although production details have not been disclosed. BAE Systems and its partners are engaged in a number of ongoing tenders for additional orders around the world.

...

https://www.janes.com/article/91594/raf ... er-typhoon
 
Ozair
Posts: 5083
Joined: Mon Jan 31, 2005 8:38 am

Re: Future of western fighter production lines

Wed Oct 23, 2019 12:06 am

Interesting that LM doesn’t see the Taiwan request and subsequent US approval with more confidence. Looks like they are hunting out the smaller orders and top ups from nations that either can’t get F-35 or see the F-16 as sufficient capability at a low operational cost compared to rivals.

One a month is a very slow build rate though. If Taiwan does order we could expect production to reach perhaps three a month.

Lockheed Martin sees big demand for F-16 in Middle East & Asia

Lockheed Martin believes its backlog of orders for the F-16 Fighting Falcon aircraft could more than triple based on demand from Middle Eastern and Asian countries.

The company currently has a backlog of 30 F-16s, but anticipates orders for additional aircraft could increase its sales by at least another 60 examples, says Kenneth Possenriede, executive vice-president and chief financial officer of Lockheed Martin on the firm’s third quarter earnings call on 22 October.

“In our plan, we see countries like Morocco and other countries out in the Far East that in aggregate could grow our backlog by another 60 aircraft,” he says. “We see a great future for F-16.”

Lockheed Martin is currently building one F-16 per month at its Greenville, South Carolina facility, which this year started producing the fighter after production was moved from Fort Worth, Texas.

,,,

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... -e-461694/
 
Ozair
Posts: 5083
Joined: Mon Jan 31, 2005 8:38 am

Re: Future of western fighter production lines

Tue Dec 10, 2019 11:01 pm

Indonesia seems very keen to acquire additional F-16s to replace the Hawk 109/209 aircraft they currently have in service. That will present a significant upgrade in capability for Indonesia. Would also be the first time Indonesia has taken new build F-16s since the original twelve and probably opens the door to their existing F-16s (close to Blk 50/52 standard) being upgraded to the V standard as well.

This is another potential order for the F-16 that should see it continue in production past 2026 and likely closing in on 2030.

Indonesia outlines 2020–24 military procurement priorities

...

The most expensive procurement identified in the 2020-24 priorities is the Indonesian Air Force (Tentara Nasional Indonesia - Angkatan Udara: TNI-AU) project to acquire Lockheed Martin F-16V Block 70/72 Fighting Falcon multirole combat aircraft.

The MoD confirmed that the TNI-AU is planning to acquire 32 F-16s (two squadrons), which would cost about USD2 billion. Jane's understands that the F-16V has been identified by the TNI-AU as a replacement for its ageing BAE Systems Hawk 109/209 strike aircraft.

...

https://www.janes.com/article/93090/ind ... priorities
 
Ozair
Posts: 5083
Joined: Mon Jan 31, 2005 8:38 am

Re: Future of western fighter production lines

Sun Feb 23, 2020 11:00 am

Eurofighter still seems an outside chance to me given it has got to be the most expensive of the three shortlisted options, although the most capable. Of course Columbia could just order nothing in the end but the Kfirs have got to be very difficult to maintain.

Airbus makes Tranche 3 Eurofighter offer to Colombia

Airbus Defence & Space (DS) has formally offered the Eurofighter Typhoon combat aircraft to the Colombian Air Force (Fuerza Aérea Colombiana: FAC) to replace its ageing fleet of Israeli Aerospace Industries (IAI) Kfirs.

Iván Gonzalez, Head of Combat Aircraft Campaigns at Airbus Group, told Jane’s on 20 February that the company has offered 15 Tranche 3 aircraft (12 single-seat and 3 twin-seat) to Colombia.

According to Gonzalez, the Eurofighter would be the best option for Colombia for several reasons: “The country needs an advanced multirole fighter and the Eurofighter is the aircraft that best meets this requirement. In addition, the Eurofighter has an air-to-air superiority unmatched by other competitors, as well as air-to-ground superiority already demonstrated in real operations”.

“Additionally, it is important to consider that in the event that Colombia opted for a Eurofighter fleet, it would join the largest European defense programme, which would also allow the country to take advantage of the technological and economic benefits associated with this programme,” he said.

The FAC is currently evaluating and examining proposals from several countries and manufacturers for its air superiority fighter replacement programme. According to the air force, the Eurofighter, Lockheed Martin F-16V Block 70/72 and Saab JAS 39 Gripen E/F have been shortlisted as a potential replacement for its Kfirs.

Replacing the 23 Israeli Kfir fighter jets, which Colombia bought three decades ago, could cost more than USD1 billion, according to government sources. Despite budget limitations, President Ivan Duque has said he is in favour of modernising the country’s military equipment.

As part of its pitch, Airbus is proposing three main co-operation ‘pillars’: Sharing knowledge that will allow the national industry to support Colombia’s strategic defence programmes, support the development of the Colombian defence industry building up on the experience Airbus has with Corporacion de la Industria Aeronautica Colombiana (CIAC); and providing the necessary capacities to increase the country's aeronautical industry autonomy and independence.

...

https://www.janes.com/article/94444/air ... o-colombia
 
art
Posts: 3316
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

Re: Future of western fighter production lines

Wed Feb 26, 2020 6:17 pm

I do not think it is possible to buy 15 Eurofighters for $1 billion. I would say that unless Colombia is prepared to pay a lot more, Eurofighter cannot win.
 
Ozair
Posts: 5083
Joined: Mon Jan 31, 2005 8:38 am

Re: Future of western fighter production lines

Thu Feb 27, 2020 5:16 am

Turkey are planning a build lightning test centre which amongst other uses will facilitate development of the TF-X.

Turkey To Setup First Lightning Testing Center To Aid Indigenous Fighter Development

Turkey plans to establish a center to facilitate the testing of aircraft against the effects of lightning, within the scope of its project to develop the fifth-generation TF-X National Combat Aircraft (MMU).

Ankara appears to be accelerating its indigenous fighter development following its ousting from the F-35 program over S-400 row. A few days ago, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan commented that building the TF-X “is the best response to those threatening to end Turkey’s involvement in the F-35 program.”

...

The facility is set to have test devices capable of producing impact voltages from 1,000 to 1 million volts, enabling the testing of all types of aircraft, subsystems, components and materials.

The planned testing facility will include a high-voltage lightning direct effects test laboratory, high-voltage lightning indirect effects fest laboratory, high current and fuel system tests, control rooms for test measurement systems, workshops and support units and personnel areas, and will be used to train expert staff and engineers and technicians in the related energy fields.

...

https://www.defenseworld.net/news/26414 ... evelopment


art wrote:
I do not think it is possible to buy 15 Eurofighters for $1 billion. I would say that unless Colombia is prepared to pay a lot more, Eurofighter cannot win.

Agree and there are no second hand T3s on offer from any of the partners either. Perhaps the budget will see some revision if the Eurofighter is the stand out.
 
Ozair
Posts: 5083
Joined: Mon Jan 31, 2005 8:38 am

Re: Future of western fighter production lines

Thu Apr 23, 2020 3:40 am

So, any thoughts on who LM may be trying to sell F-16s to in Africa, South America and Southeast Asia? The article mentions Botswana but seems about as likely as their previously claimed Jas-39 purchase. I don't see Argentina (I could see some very strong pressure from the UK to avoid this) but agree with maybe Chile. Indonesia for Southeast asia but given their upgrade of existing jets I'm not sure they will acquire any new production F-16s anytime soon.

Lockheed looks to sell additional F-16s to customers in Africa, Asia and South America

Lockheed Martin anticipates another wave of international F-16 sales, with countries from Africa, South America and Southeast Asia among those interested in purchasing the jet, the company’s chief financial officer said Tuesday.

“I think this is a good fourth-generation aircraft for those customers that can’t afford the F-35 or, frankly, can’t at this time buy the F-35,” Lockheed CFO Kenneth Possenriede told investors during an April 21 earnings call. “It might be a good intermediary step for customers to go from the F-16 to F-35. So we see it frankly as complementary and not competing against themselves.”

Unlike the F-35 program, which is seeing disruption within its supply chain that could delay future deliveries, the F-16 production line has experienced little impact as a result of the coronavirus pandemic, Possenriede said.

The company moved production of the F-16 production line from Fort Worth, Texas, to Greenville, South Carolina, in 2019 to accommodate production of 16 Block 70 aircraft for Bahrain. Since Bahrain’s order in 2018, Lockheed has garnered contracts for eight F-16s for Bulgaria, 14 aircraft for Slovakia, and is working with the U.S. government on a sale of 66 jets for Taiwan.

...

https://www.defensenews.com/global/mide ... h-america/
 
ThePointblank
Posts: 3420
Joined: Sat Jan 17, 2009 11:39 pm

Re: Future of western fighter production lines

Fri Apr 24, 2020 3:17 am

I suspect the following countries:

Morocco (they've got US State Department approval for the order last year)
Columbia (they've been looking for a replacement for their Kfir fighters)
Indonesia
 
art
Posts: 3316
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

Re: Future of western fighter production lines

Wed Apr 29, 2020 6:06 am

ThePointblank wrote:
I suspect the following countries:

Morocco (they've got US State Department approval for the order last year)
Columbia (they've been looking for a replacement for their Kfir fighters)
Indonesia


Is there any political attraction for South American countries to buy a Brazilian product, if suitable, rather than a US product? When Brazil signed up for tGripen E, the opportunity of increasing Brazilian production of the aircraft through exports to other South American countries must have played a part in the selection decision.
 
ThePointblank
Posts: 3420
Joined: Sat Jan 17, 2009 11:39 pm

Re: Future of western fighter production lines

Wed Apr 29, 2020 6:21 am

art wrote:
ThePointblank wrote:
I suspect the following countries:

Morocco (they've got US State Department approval for the order last year)
Columbia (they've been looking for a replacement for their Kfir fighters)
Indonesia


Is there any political attraction for South American countries to buy a Brazilian product, if suitable, rather than a US product? When Brazil signed up for tGripen E, the opportunity of increasing Brazilian production of the aircraft through exports to other South American countries must have played a part in the selection decision.

Not likely; lots of historical regional rivalries in South America, and exports of the Gripen E would be subject to approvals from both the US and the UK for key critical components.
 
art
Posts: 3316
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

Re: Future of western fighter production lines

Thu Apr 30, 2020 8:23 am

ThePointblank wrote:
art wrote:
ThePointblank wrote:
I suspect the following countries:

Morocco (they've got US State Department approval for the order last year)
Columbia (they've been looking for a replacement for their Kfir fighters)
Indonesia


Is there any political attraction for South American countries to buy a Brazilian product, if suitable, rather than a US product? When Brazil signed up for Gripen E, the opportunity of increasing Brazilian production of the aircraft through exports to other South American countries must have played a part in the selection decision.

Not likely; lots of historical regional rivalries in South America, and exports of the Gripen E would be subject to approvals from both the US and the UK for key critical components.


Perhaps SAAB in Sweden would be the beneficiary by leasing/selling existing SWAF C/D models to budget-limited South American countries if the Swedish government agreed (and perhaps ordered some more Gripen E). According to Wiki Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, Uruguay have expressed interest in the Gripen C/D or E/F.
 
ThePointblank
Posts: 3420
Joined: Sat Jan 17, 2009 11:39 pm

Re: Future of western fighter production lines

Thu Apr 30, 2020 9:09 am

art wrote:
ThePointblank wrote:
art wrote:

Is there any political attraction for South American countries to buy a Brazilian product, if suitable, rather than a US product? When Brazil signed up for Gripen E, the opportunity of increasing Brazilian production of the aircraft through exports to other South American countries must have played a part in the selection decision.

Not likely; lots of historical regional rivalries in South America, and exports of the Gripen E would be subject to approvals from both the US and the UK for key critical components.


Perhaps SAAB in Sweden would be the beneficiary by leasing/selling existing SWAF C/D models to budget-limited South American countries if the Swedish government agreed (and perhaps ordered some more Gripen E). According to Wiki Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, Uruguay have expressed interest in the Gripen C/D or E/F.

Problem would be export approvals would be required from both the US and the UK... that can be tricky, and the US has an interest in maintaining a balance of power in the region so one nation doesn't become overly powerful.

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