Ozair
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Re: Future of western fighter production lines

Tue Dec 04, 2018 1:49 am

I'd suggest that the Eurofighter CEO is seeing a rosier picture of the future of the Eurofighter than what is likely to occur. He also talks about future production past 2030 based off the back of orders by partner nations. We have seen Germany mentioned as replacing Tranche One airframes with a follow on order but I don’t see more aircraft coming from Spain or Italy. Spain has to replace the classic Hornet at some point but I’m not confident the Eurofighter will take that role. I also don’t see any future Eurofighter sales from Italy.

That brings it back to exports then. Eurofighter has lost both Belgium and Denmark, is in the running for Canada, Finland, maybe Switzerland and likely Poland from the post above. In the Middle East Saudi Arabia have probably ordered as many as they are going to take, Qatar will struggle to add more to their mix and the UAE still hasn’t decided on what they are going to do so there is potential there. In Asia Malaysia is seeking a few aircraft but the rest seems reasonably sown up with Chinese, Russian or US aircraft.

Eurofighter key to securing European defence industrial sovereignty – CEO

The multinational Eurofighter project is key to securing Europe's defence industrial sovereignty as efforts shift to developing the next-generation of combat aircraft, the consortium's CEO said on 28 November.

Speaking at the Berlin Security Conference, Eurofighter CEO Volker Paltzo said that the project has been "the glue" for Europe's defence industry over the previous decades, and that it will continue to be the foundation for the continent's future defence industrial collaboration as work begins to develop the Next-Generation Fighter (NGF) as part of the wider Franco-German Future Combat Air System (FCAS).

"The Eurofighter is the current and future backbone of European defence," he said. "It has acted as a catalyst for industrial co-operation, and Europe needs more projects like this [that afford it] a sovereign defence capability."

The Eurofighter Typhoon is Europe's largest defence project, with 623 aircraft ordered across nine nations. Of these, 549 have been delivered and more than 500,000 hours flown. There are further potential orders for some of the core nations of Germany, Italy, Spain, and the United Kingdom that will take production well into the 2030s, and the aircraft itself will remain in service through to the 2060s. "As we continue to develop new technologies and capabilities, the Eurofighter will serve as a natural bridge into the FCAS project," Paltzo said. "For the long-term evolution of the Eurofighter we have a clear capability roadmap to maintain the aircraft's relevance for years to come."

This roadmap has already begun, Paltzo said, noting the work in the UK to cross-deck the air-to-ground capabilities of the Panavia Tornado under the Royal Air Force's Project Centurion. These capability enhancements could serve also as a technological pathway to the continent's future fighter efforts, Paltzo noted, with upgrades being considered including satellite communications, enhanced datalinks, low-observable (LO) communications compatibility, large area display, helmet-mounted displays, as well as improvements to the Eurojet EJ200 powerplant for greater thrust, efficiency, and weapons carriage.

https://www.janes.com/article/84866/eur ... eignty-ceo
 
Scorpius
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Re: Future of western fighter production lines

Tue Dec 04, 2018 10:44 am

Do not forget that some part of the market will be interpreted by Russia, as SU-30, SU-34, MiG-35, SU-35 may be preferred for some of these countries. In addition, there is the Yak-130 and SU-25. The combination of the aircraft I have listed can cover most of the combat aviation needs.
 
Ozair
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Re: Future of western fighter production lines

Tue Dec 04, 2018 8:43 pm

Scorpius wrote:
Do not forget that some part of the market will be interpreted by Russia, as SU-30, SU-34, MiG-35, SU-35 may be preferred for some of these countries. In addition, there is the Yak-130 and SU-25. The combination of the aircraft I have listed can cover most of the combat aviation needs.

While Russia has a small presence in the fighter market it is reasonably insignificant. If you can afford and have the political ability to acquire a western fighter jet you don’t consider Russian, or Chinese equipment. Malaysia isn’t seeking more Su-30s or new MiG-35s to replace their retired Mig-29 fleet and I cannot think of a single nation in Europe that would buy new Russian fighter jets. In the Middle East Egypt acquired both Rafales and MiG-29s but that is about it, every other order of size is going to western airframes. In Asia only those who have previously acquired Russian jets would be expected to continue, such as Vietnam and perhaps Indonesia who continue to flirt with the idea of an Su-35 order. I expect Russian aircraft to continue to win orders from stan countries in central Asia, the odd one in Asia and perhaps a few airframes in North Africa and that is about it. Those orders combined would likely be less than 100 airframes.

From your list no one has yet acquired Su-34, Algeria considered but as far as I can tell the order never went anywhere. The Su-30 will get a few top up orders from current users. MiG-35 has languished in a development hole, Iraq may have ordered but that appears unlikely. Su-35 has some prospects for sales as already mentioned in Indonesia, perhaps another order from China and Vietnam and a North African country or two may be interested but it won’t be big numbers. The YAK-130 has some prospects but is not a production fighter aircraft while future sales of the Su-25 is more likely to be remanufacture of older aircraft not new builds.

All in I expect that Russian fighters will become insignificant in 20 years, eclipsed by Chinese imports and remaining of interest to politically fringe countries.
 
LMP737
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Re: Future of western fighter production lines

Tue Dec 04, 2018 11:28 pm

Scorpius wrote:
Do not forget that some part of the market will be interpreted by Russia, as SU-30, SU-34, MiG-35, SU-35 may be preferred for some of these countries. In addition, there is the Yak-130 and SU-25. The combination of the aircraft I have listed can cover most of the combat aviation needs.


Usually countries that can't buy, for whatever reason, western aircraft. Or don't mind piss poor product support.
Never take financial advice from co-workers.
 
RJMAZ
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Re: Future of western fighter production lines

Wed Dec 05, 2018 2:27 am

The F-35 program will be how all future fighters will get run. The primary and largest operator gets the assembly line but development and part production is spread out based on their order quantity.

We will also see trade deals where militaries will buy each others products to even things out.

For example France and Germany both buy the F-35 in exchange for the USAF buying 200 A400M's. Everyone wins.

France and Germany could also both buy the Boeing trainer aircraft in exchange for another 100 A400m for the USAF.

Or you can do three way deals. For example Australia agrees to buy Brazils KC-390 transport if Brazil buys F-16's. US Army agrees to buys a couple hundred aussie made bushmaster armoured vehicles.

This kind of procurement is open to corruption but it can be made to work with proper oversight.
 
Scorpius
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Re: Future of western fighter production lines

Wed Dec 05, 2018 10:28 am

LMP737 wrote:
Scorpius wrote:
Do not forget that some part of the market will be interpreted by Russia, as SU-30, SU-34, MiG-35, SU-35 may be preferred for some of these countries. In addition, there is the Yak-130 and SU-25. The combination of the aircraft I have listed can cover most of the combat aviation needs.


Usually countries that can't buy, for whatever reason, western aircraft. Or don't mind piss poor product support.

What" bad support " are we talking about? The accident rate of Russian combat aircraft is currently lower than that of the West. And any country has the opportunity to organize its own production, buying technology (example-India).
However, I only pointed out that part of the market in any case will be for Russian aircraft. Consider this in your predictions.
 
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Devilfish
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Re: Future of western fighter production lines

Thu Dec 06, 2018 4:10 am

"Everyone is entitled to my opinion." - Garfield
 
Ozair
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Re: Future of western fighter production lines

Thu Dec 06, 2018 5:15 am

Devilfish wrote:

There is the Bahrain order as well. The production line has to move and be up and running at Greenville so I don’t think there is a lot of haste with these. It is entirely possible the F-16 line will continue, once it restarts, with small top ups for another 3 years but the Taiwanese order would likely see it function until at least 2026 and probably closer to 2028 if the other orders go through.

Found this comment from Eurofighter earlier in the year,
A Eurofighter spokesperson noted that, based on current orders, the typhoon will continue to be delivered until 2024.
“We continue to pursue a number of significant opportunities around the world and are confident that we will sell more Eurofighter Typhoon aircraft internationally,” said the spokesperson.

https://www.defensenews.com/air/2018/01 ... rain-deal/

Obviously the potential for a German order helps but it is crazy to consider that the F-16 line may end up lasting longer than the Eurofighter…
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Future of western fighter production lines

Thu Dec 06, 2018 8:36 am

Ozair wrote:
Devilfish wrote:

There is the Bahrain order as well. The production line has to move and be up and running at Greenville so I don’t think there is a lot of haste with these. It is entirely possible the F-16 line will continue, once it restarts, with small top ups for another 3 years but the Taiwanese order would likely see it function until at least 2026 and probably closer to 2028 if the other orders go through.


Amazing that the F-16 will have had a production run for over 50 years :o by the time it closes.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
Ozair
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Re: Future of western fighter production lines

Tue Jun 11, 2019 8:11 am

Looks like any of the companies hoping for a Malaysian order for new fighters jets is going to have to wait at least another ten years...

Malaysia to buy used Kuwaiti fighter jets to expand fleet

The Royal Malaysian Air Force (RMAF) plans to acquire used Kuwaiti fighter jets while waiting to purchase new aircraft in the next 10 to 15 years.

RMAF chief General Affendi Buang said Kuwait is planning to phase out its existing fleet of Hornet FA-18C and 18D aircraft as it waits for the delivery of the Boeing Super Hornet aircraft in 2021.

“I think we will grab some of the aircraft to add on to our current fleet, at least while waiting for the new multirole combat aircraft (MRCA) programme, so we have a slightly bigger fleet than what we have today,” he told reporters during a special press conference on the RMAF’s anniversary celebration on June 1.

However, he said talks between the two air forces had yet to start.

Affendi said that RMAF was still seeking government approval for its light-combat aircraft (LCA) programme, as stated in its Capability 55 (CAP55) blueprint.

The air force is still in the process of sending out requests for information (RFI) for feedback from the various suppliers, or original equipment manufacturers (OEM), about their aircraft.

He added that in the CAP55 blueprint, the LCA programme would pan out over three phases and that allocations for 12 LCA would be requested each time the government comes up with a new five-year development plan – the next one to be tabled next year.

“The BAE Hawk aircrafts can go at least for the next 10 years, by then we are hoping that the LCA programme will be approved.

“Once we get at least 12 LCA, we will start phasing out older planes which at that time would be almost 25 years old.

“That will be timely, although we wish we can get it earlier. But if we can get the LCA in the time period mentioned, it will not be too critical,” he said.

Last June, Affendi revealed that 40% of its assets had surpassed their 20-year lifespan.

...

https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/categ ... and-fleet/

Expanding their classic Hornet fleet makes sense and I expect the Kuwaiti airframes probably have the lowest hours on them compared to other classic Hornets available. Also interesting to see the Malaysian plans for an LCA continue.
 
ThePointblank
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Re: Future of western fighter production lines

Thu Jun 13, 2019 6:44 am

Ozair wrote:
Looks like any of the companies hoping for a Malaysian order for new fighters jets is going to have to wait at least another ten years...

Malaysia to buy used Kuwaiti fighter jets to expand fleet

The Royal Malaysian Air Force (RMAF) plans to acquire used Kuwaiti fighter jets while waiting to purchase new aircraft in the next 10 to 15 years.

RMAF chief General Affendi Buang said Kuwait is planning to phase out its existing fleet of Hornet FA-18C and 18D aircraft as it waits for the delivery of the Boeing Super Hornet aircraft in 2021.

“I think we will grab some of the aircraft to add on to our current fleet, at least while waiting for the new multirole combat aircraft (MRCA) programme, so we have a slightly bigger fleet than what we have today,” he told reporters during a special press conference on the RMAF’s anniversary celebration on June 1.

However, he said talks between the two air forces had yet to start.

Affendi said that RMAF was still seeking government approval for its light-combat aircraft (LCA) programme, as stated in its Capability 55 (CAP55) blueprint.

The air force is still in the process of sending out requests for information (RFI) for feedback from the various suppliers, or original equipment manufacturers (OEM), about their aircraft.

He added that in the CAP55 blueprint, the LCA programme would pan out over three phases and that allocations for 12 LCA would be requested each time the government comes up with a new five-year development plan – the next one to be tabled next year.

“The BAE Hawk aircrafts can go at least for the next 10 years, by then we are hoping that the LCA programme will be approved.

“Once we get at least 12 LCA, we will start phasing out older planes which at that time would be almost 25 years old.

“That will be timely, although we wish we can get it earlier. But if we can get the LCA in the time period mentioned, it will not be too critical,” he said.

Last June, Affendi revealed that 40% of its assets had surpassed their 20-year lifespan.

...

https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/categ ... and-fleet/

Expanding their classic Hornet fleet makes sense and I expect the Kuwaiti airframes probably have the lowest hours on them compared to other classic Hornets available. Also interesting to see the Malaysian plans for an LCA continue.

I hope the Malaysians replace the engines on the ex-Kuwaiti examples, and does a through cleaning of the air frames once they arrive in Malaysia. The fine sand in the Persian Gulf gets into everything!

Also, I've heard via rumours that at the time when Canada was considering the Kuwaiti air frames, but were discouraged from it because the Kuwaiti examples were in far worst shape than their low hours and age suggested.
 
YIMBY
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Re: Future of western fighter production lines

Thu Jun 13, 2019 10:47 am

Will there be competition of Finnish and Swiss Hornets when they are replaced?
 
Ozair
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Re: Future of western fighter production lines

Thu Jun 13, 2019 11:59 am

YIMBY wrote:
Will there be competition of Finnish and Swiss Hornets when they are replaced?

Not too.many existing users by the time those fleets are available. They will likely be, apart from Malaysia, the last operators depending on how long Spain takes to replace theirs.
 
YIMBY
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Re: Future of western fighter production lines

Thu Jun 13, 2019 2:31 pm

Ozair wrote:
YIMBY wrote:
Will there be competition of Finnish and Swiss Hornets when they are replaced?

Not too.many existing users by the time those fleets are available. They will likely be, apart from Malaysia, the last operators depending on how long Spain takes to replace theirs.


I would not bet Canada to make decision before that.
 
Ozair
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Re: Future of western fighter production lines

Thu Jun 13, 2019 3:19 pm

YIMBY wrote:
Ozair wrote:
YIMBY wrote:
Will there be competition of Finnish and Swiss Hornets when they are replaced?

Not too.many existing users by the time those fleets are available. They will likely be, apart from Malaysia, the last operators depending on how long Spain takes to replace theirs.


I would not bet Canada to make decision before that.

Yeah certainly possible they will delay that long given the cluster that has been their replacement program so far.
 
hmmwv
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Re: Future of western fighter production lines

Mon Jun 17, 2019 10:02 pm

ThePointblank wrote:
Also, I've heard via rumours that at the time when Canada was considering the Kuwaiti air frames, but were discouraged from it because the Kuwaiti examples were in far worst shape than their low hours and age suggested.


That's shocking to hear, considering Kuwait has some of the most modern facilities, and the low humidity should help preserve air frames, plus the aircraft are not subjected to the punishment of carrier landings. I guess it must be a combination of inadequate maintenance, fine sand, and sea salt.
 
ThePointblank
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Re: Future of western fighter production lines

Tue Jun 18, 2019 9:53 am

hmmwv wrote:
ThePointblank wrote:
Also, I've heard via rumours that at the time when Canada was considering the Kuwaiti air frames, but were discouraged from it because the Kuwaiti examples were in far worst shape than their low hours and age suggested.


That's shocking to hear, considering Kuwait has some of the most modern facilities, and the low humidity should help preserve air frames, plus the aircraft are not subjected to the punishment of carrier landings. I guess it must be a combination of inadequate maintenance, fine sand, and sea salt.

My guess based upon my knowledge of the Hornet is that Kuwait never did a centre barrel replacement on their Hornets. The centre barrel is a key and critical component that determines the service life of the airframe, and many Hornet customers have chosen to perform a centre barrel replacement on their aircraft to extend the service life. The Hornet has had issues with the centre barrel being the primary life-limiting airframe component on the aircraft, and thus a replacement would allow a much extended service life for the aircraft.
 
SuperiorPilotMe
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Re: Future of western fighter production lines

Tue Jun 18, 2019 2:52 pm

The F-15 and F-18 are in a weird state of limbo.

Production is winding down for air forces switching to an all-5th gen fleet but ramping up for air forces that for various reasons can’t practically do so.

Boeing seems to be touting stealth features more frequently on the Super Bug especially given an apparent lack of interest on Silent Eagle but the F-15 seems to be better coasting on a superior counter-air reputation.

The Super Bug also has the unique capability to fly off a carrier, but that also appeals to exactly one nation on the entire planet.

Either way I can see production deep into the 30s. Not even the B-52 can claim that record.

The F-16 is a lame duck. It and the Gripen are the F-5s of the 21st century, providing supersonic tactical air for the poorest air forces that for whatever reason don’t want to go Russian.

Tyhpoon and Rafale are going to be in production until the very moment its replacements start rolling off the line instead. Even then like the F-15 they likely have high export appeal.
Stop the stupids!- Claus Kellerman
 
hmmwv
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Re: Future of western fighter production lines

Tue Jun 18, 2019 6:38 pm

SuperiorPilotMe wrote:
The Super Bug also has the unique capability to fly off a carrier, but that also appeals to exactly one nation on the entire planet.


By one nation do you mean the US, if yes then you should also count India.
 
SuperiorPilotMe
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Re: Future of western fighter production lines

Wed Jun 19, 2019 11:16 pm

We’ll see, alot of people say otherwise, people like SAAB et al.
Stop the stupids!- Claus Kellerman
 
sovietjet
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Re: Future of western fighter production lines

Thu Jun 20, 2019 8:59 pm

Perhaps everyone here has missed the fact that Bulgaria is close to buying F-16s as well.
 
SuperiorPilotMe
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Re: Future of western fighter production lines

Fri Jun 21, 2019 12:07 am

sovietjet wrote:
Perhaps everyone here has missed the fact that Bulgaria is close to buying F-16s as well.


Yes because Bulgaria is going to inevitably buy into huge numbers that will support production lines for years to come.

And people wonder why I treat everyone here with utter contempt.
Stop the stupids!- Claus Kellerman
 
Ozair
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Re: Future of western fighter production lines

Fri Jun 21, 2019 4:27 pm

sovietjet wrote:
Perhaps everyone here has missed the fact that Bulgaria is close to buying F-16s as well.

We still have a thread about it that I post news in occasionally. As well as Slovakia, Bahrain, Taiwan potentially ordering more, Morocco and the looming Indian competition it could still be in production 6-10 years from now.

SuperiorPilotMe wrote:
We’ll see, alot of people say otherwise, people like SAAB et al.

Saab and Eurofighter have both proposed carrier capable versions which have never gone anywhere. Gripen has already been removed from the Indian Navy selection while the Rafale, SH and MiG-29/35 remain. No other navy has a current need for a CATOBAR or even STOBAR aircraft that won't manufacture it themselves.


I see the following with current western fighter aircraft

Gripen C - Is done, will have no more orders. I don't expect Botswana to go any further.
Gripen E - Sweden and Brazil, perhaps another couple of smaller nations and likely no more. Removed from Swiss competition, unlikely for Canada but perhaps a chance in Finland.
F-15 - The USAF order for F-15X has brought some new life to the line that would have likely closed down after Qatar. Perhaps some top up Israel orders but it will likely be in production until the USAF stops buying EX, which may not be until 2030.
F-16 - As above, still a few competitions to go and interest continues from smaller nations especially in Eastern Europe.
F-18 - I don't expect the SH to win any more competitions based on current experience and the only other operators are Australia (sole source) and Kuwait (sole source). The USN will keep the line ticking over with new builds and upgrades and hence will likely be available until at least 2025.
F-35 - Continue winning competitions with production continuing likely into at least the 2040s.
Eurofighter - Italian line will close after Kuwait is completed. German line will continue with a top up German Air Force order but close once that is complete. British line will close after Qatar and Saudi are fulfilled. Spanish line is dependent on which way they go with the classic Hornet replacement but likely a close soon as well. Expect for Germany I don't see a Eurofighter line going past 2025.
Rafale - Already known that incremental French orders will continue into the early 2030s. Given the build rate is so low it will continue on but I expect export orders to dry up post 2025.

The big open competitions coming up are, in approx to order of volume,
India
Canada
Finland
Switzerland

Apart from India the other three expect delivery by 2031 so I expect by early 2030s that only F-35 and Rafale will be still in production. Gripen will likely be available for order but no active line.
 
SuperiorPilotMe
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Re: Future of western fighter production lines

Fri Jun 21, 2019 10:32 pm

Ozair wrote:
Saab and Eurofighter have both proposed carrier capable versions which have never gone anywhere. Gripen has already been removed from the Indian Navy selection while the Rafale, SH and MiG-29/35 remain. No other navy has a current need for a CATOBAR or even STOBAR aircraft that won't manufacture it themselves.

...



F-18 - I don't expect the SH to win any more competitions based on current experience and the only other operators are Australia (sole source) and Kuwait (sole source). The USN will keep the line ticking over with new builds and upgrades and hence will likely be available until at least 2025.


Is this a tacit implication you expect Rafale or MiG to win the Indian order?
Stop the stupids!- Claus Kellerman
 
Ozair
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Re: Future of western fighter production lines

Sat Jun 22, 2019 8:06 am

SuperiorPilotMe wrote:
Ozair wrote:
Saab and Eurofighter have both proposed carrier capable versions which have never gone anywhere. Gripen has already been removed from the Indian Navy selection while the Rafale, SH and MiG-29/35 remain. No other navy has a current need for a CATOBAR or even STOBAR aircraft that won't manufacture it themselves.

...



F-18 - I don't expect the SH to win any more competitions based on current experience and the only other operators are Australia (sole source) and Kuwait (sole source). The USN will keep the line ticking over with new builds and upgrades and hence will likely be available until at least 2025.


Is this a tacit implication you expect Rafale or MiG to win the Indian order?

With India all bets are off and I don't have any idea how they will go for the Navy selection. My understanding is that the SH is preferred but that means literally nothing and the competition could go on for another five years without a selection.
 
trex8
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Re: Future of western fighter production lines

Fri Jun 28, 2019 8:44 pm

Taiwan could take 66 F16V, there have been reports they may even take another 6 attrition replacements.
https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3655421
 
Ozair
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Re: Future of western fighter production lines

Fri Jun 28, 2019 9:14 pm

trex8 wrote:
Taiwan could take 66 F16V, there have been reports they may even take another 6 attrition replacements.
https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3655421

That swings back and forth every few years. At the moment I believe they are happy to take the Vs as refurbished from their existing fleet but the Mirage fleet costs them significantly more to operate and I expect they would like to replace them sooner rather than later. In the absence of any other airframes, and avoiding the crazy idea of taking F-15Cs out of the boneyard, more new build F-16Vs makes a lot of sense.

Further to the SH info above, a report recently from one of the journals indicated that the SH production line was going to be open until 2033 with the USN orders and upgrade work funded.
 
trex8
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Re: Future of western fighter production lines

Sat Jun 29, 2019 4:12 pm

Ozair wrote:
trex8 wrote:
Taiwan could take 66 F16V, there have been reports they may even take another 6 attrition replacements.
https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3655421

That swings back and forth every few years. At the moment I believe they are happy to take the Vs as refurbished from their existing fleet but the Mirage fleet costs them significantly more to operate and I expect they would like to replace them sooner rather than later. In the absence of any other airframes, and avoiding the crazy idea of taking F-15Cs out of the boneyard, more new build F-16Vs makes a lot of sense.

Further to the SH info above, a report recently from one of the journals indicated that the SH production line was going to be open until 2033 with the USN orders and upgrade work funded.

Yes they have been thinking about more F16s since Bush 2, but have been told not to even ask officially in previous administrations , plus every time an administration changes in Taiwan something else gets messed up in local politics. This time they been told they can send an official request for an offer/pricing and have done so.
First upgraded F16 block 20s were show cased recently during the HanKuang exercises operating off highways. But program may be in for some problems with lack of personnel at AIDC to do the work as scheduled.
 
Ozair
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Re: Future of western fighter production lines

Wed Jul 10, 2019 1:39 pm

Fitting with this thread is this article that is an analysis of fighter production for the next ten years. Gives a great view of how much of an impact the high production rate of the F-35 has on the number that will be delivered compared to other aircraft. At the moment production peaks in the early 2020s but with a few competitions to start delivering aircraft in the middle to late 20s I expect the rate will continue around that ~370 number.

Fighter Aircraft Market Worth $260B Over Next 10 Years

Production of fighter aircraft is on the rise. In Forecast International’s newly updated study “The Market for Fighter Aircraft,” FI projects that a total of 3,401 fighter aircraft will be produced from 2019 through 2028, more than 17 percent (499 units) higher than the number of aircraft that manufacturers produced during the previous 10 years, when fighter production averaged about 290 aircraft per year.

Production will peak at 371 aircraft in 2021 and 2022. Annual production will then decline through 2027, with production falling to 313 aircraft that year.

...

https://dsm.forecastinternational.com/w ... -10-years/

Image

Image
 
Ozair
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Re: Future of western fighter production lines

Fri Jul 19, 2019 4:19 am

A good selection of vendors for Columbia to choose from, the Gripen, the Eurofighter, F-16V and the Kfir NG (not sure why Rafale is not mentioned in the article?). The Gripen seems well poised given its arrival in Brazil in the next few years but not sure how much budget Columbia has to work with. The Kfir NG is an interesting option and could see the aircraft keep flying for a long time but likely comes with some risk given the change of systems/engine involved.

An interesting little competition to keep watch of.

Saab offers Gripens to Colombia to replace Kfirs

Saab AB is offering its single-seat and dual-seat Gripen fighters to the Colombia Air Force (Fuerza Aérea Colombiana: FAC) to replace its Israeli Aerospace Industries (IAI) Kfir combat aircraft fleet.

Jonas Hjelm, Saab's head of business area aeronautics, told Jane's on 10 July from the Feria Aeronáutica Internacional (F-AIR) show in Colombia that the company offered 12 single-seat Gripen Es and 3 dual-seat Gripen Fs. He said that Colombia is looking for multirole air superiority fighters and that Saab believes the Gripens perfectly fit these requirements.

...

https://www.janes.com/article/89837/saa ... lace-kfirs
 
mxaxai
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Re: Future of western fighter production lines

Sat Jul 20, 2019 8:31 am

Ozair wrote:
A good selection of vendors for Columbia to choose from,[...] the Eurofighter

In the past, Colombia was supposedly interested in used Eurofighters from Spain. I would expect nothing different in this competition today. New Eurofighters would be too expensive for Colombia.
Whether Spain might then seek to replace older Tranche 2 models with new Tranche 3b jets is, of course, another topic.

The US appear to provide strong political support for a F-16 sale. Fascinating how worried the US forces are that Russian or Chinese jets might be difficult to maintain...
The U.S. Air Force is offering Bogotá the latest version of Lockheed Martin’s F-16 fighter jets, Maj. Gen. Andrew Croft, the commander of Air Forces Southern, told Foreign Policy in a recent phone interview.

The addition of an estimated 15 F-16 to Colombia’s arsenal would “be a great advancement for not only their capability to defend their sovereign air space” but would also help enable interoperability with U.S. forces, Croft said during a visit to Colombia, where he attended a major air show and met with senior Colombian military officials.
...
“Selling something like an F-16 to a nation like Colombia builds that long-term relationship and also prevents the Russians or the Chinese from selling them a system that then becomes very difficult or impossible to maintain,” Croft said.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/07/18/al ... -colombia/
 
tomcat
Posts: 400
Joined: Thu Sep 28, 2000 4:14 am

Re: Future of western fighter production lines

Sat Jul 20, 2019 10:06 pm

Here is an update about Greece fleet planning:
1) 84 F-16C/D Block 52+ will be upgraded to the F-16V standard. The upgrade is due to be completed by 2027. This 1 billion dollars contract will contribute to keep the F-16 supply chain busy for a while, even though it won't feed the F-16 FAL.
https://www.janes.com/article/85383/lm-contracted-to-upgrade-greek-f-16s

2) On top of this, Greece has recently shown some interest in buying up to 30 F-35s (see article from April 2019 below). I believe that Greece's interest in the F-35 is closely related to Turkey's build-up of its F-35 fleet. Now that this build-up is at least temporarily compromised, Greece's interest in the F-35 might remain on the back burner for a while.
https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/greece-eyes-f-35s-as-f-16-replacement-457481/
http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkish-fm-us-counterpart-discuss-f-35-s-400-by-phone-145117

Further north, the Netherlands are planning a small top-up order for 8 or 9 F-35s:
https://dsm.forecastinternational.com/wordpress/2019/07/19/netherlands-intends-to-buy-additional-f-35s/
 
Ozair
Posts: 3932
Joined: Mon Jan 31, 2005 8:38 am

Re: Future of western fighter production lines

Sun Jul 21, 2019 10:44 am

mxaxai wrote:
In the past, Colombia was supposedly interested in used Eurofighters from Spain. I would expect nothing different in this competition today. New Eurofighters would be too expensive for Colombia.
Whether Spain might then seek to replace older Tranche 2 models with new Tranche 3b jets is, of course, another topic.

Makes sense, they certainly don't need new jets although it appears that new F-16s may be one of the potential options.

mxaxai wrote:
The US appear to provide strong political support for a F-16 sale. Fascinating how worried the US forces are that Russian or Chinese jets might be difficult to maintain...

I don't know about Chinese jets but there is enough evidence that his claims on Russian jets being difficult to maintain are credible. Perhaps it has to do with those nations acquiring Russian jets but the Malaysians, Indians and Indonesians have all struggled to maintain their Russian fleets.

tomcat wrote:
Here is an update about Greece fleet planning:
1) 84 F-16C/D Block 52+ will be upgraded to the F-16V standard. The upgrade is due to be completed by 2027. This 1 billion dollars contract will contribute to keep the F-16 supply chain busy for a while, even though it won't feed the F-16 FAL.
https://www.janes.com/article/85383/lm-contracted-to-upgrade-greek-f-16s

2) On top of this, Greece has recently shown some interest in buying up to 30 F-35s (see article from April 2019 below). I believe that Greece's interest in the F-35 is closely related to Turkey's build-up of its F-35 fleet. Now that this build-up is at least temporarily compromised, Greece's interest in the F-35 might remain on the back burner for a while.
https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/greece-eyes-f-35s-as-f-16-replacement-457481/
http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkish-fm-us-counterpart-discuss-f-35-s-400-by-phone-145117

I agree, the F-35 talk will likely die down in Greece now. I expect they will acquire the jet at some point in the future but there is no need to hurry. A mid 2030s acquisition makes sense when hopefully the economy is in better shape.

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