UN_B732
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Re: Russian Plane "Disappears from Radar"

Sun Dec 25, 2016 6:55 pm

JayBCNLON; if you really truly believe that you have no knowledge of this situation and how people felt about Elisaveta. This is a woman who would go into war-ravaged areas to perform charity work. A scapegoat to entertain the troops? Give me a break...

Also; your tasteless comment about someone who was lost in a tragedy, frankly, is sickening and has been reported to the mods. Save the B.S. For non-av. Dr. Liza was far more respected in Russian society than you could ever dream of being.


JayBCNLON wrote:
ZKCIF wrote:
tu204 wrote:
This aircraft was enroute from Chkalovsky Airbase in Moscow enroute to Khmeimim Airbase in Latakia, Syria with officers and artists onboard to perform for the troops stationed at Khmeimim.

Sochi was a refuelling stop.



What is the point of the refueling stop?
ZIA-LTK is 1247nm only, Tu-154 can fly there and back, especially with as low a load as 84pax and low cargo (presumably, instruments only)

A crazily well-known person was onboard
Глинка, Елизавета Петровна
roughly, an equivalent of Mother Teresa



Well, Russian Air Force planes usually have to take a detour over the Caspian Sea towards Iran and via Iraq to Latakia. So that may explain the fuel stop.

It must be a very rough comparison as mother Theresa probably never flew on an Air Force plane into a war zone where the nation of the Air Force plane is a fighting party. It sounds more like Elisabeta Glinka was used by the Russian regime as troop entertainment and as camouflage for the atrocities taking place with Russian assistance to say the least. More like a Marilyn Monroe supporting the us troops in the Korean War.
What now?
 
eielef
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Re: Russian Plane "Disappears from Radar"

Sun Dec 25, 2016 7:01 pm

JayBCNLON wrote:
Well, Russian Air Force planes usually have to take a detour over the Caspian Sea towards Iran and via Iraq to Latakia. So that may explain the fuel stop.
It must be a very rough comparison as mother Theresa probably never flew on an Air Force plane into a war zone where the nation of the Air Force plane is a fighting party. It sounds more like Elisabeta Glinka was used by the Russian regime as troop entertainment and as camouflage for the atrocities taking place with Russian assistance to say the least. More like a Marilyn Monroe supporting the us troops in the Korean War.


I think you are being disrespectful towards Ms Glinka, and towards the Russian people. She was a very loved person in Russia, and today in the Catholic Christmas Celebration we lighted candles for her and for all the people on that plane. She went to Syria as you have seen many policy makers in other conflicts, or journalists, or musicians, or volunteers. She is not troop entertainment, if so they would have sent a striper better. She was going to support not only the troops, but also the Syrian people who has been fighting a cruel war for too long.

Russia has set an official day of mourning for tomorrow 26 DEC, and ISIS seems to be involved. I can't explain myself why they chose Sochi to refuel. But if seen in the map, is from a reaching distance from some rockets maybe from northeastern Turkey or western Georgia...

I know two crashes involving artists. One was in Iowa, on Feb. 3 1959, when three famous rock and roll musicians Buddy Holly, Ritchie Valens, and J. P. "The Big Bopper" Richardson died together with the pilot in a small Beech Bonanza. This is known as "The day the music died" (remember the song American Pie).
The other was in the Río de la Plata, not far from Buenos Aires, when also a small plane, a QueenAir LV-JOC, taking 9 performers of the Colón Ballet, the best in Argentina, short after taking off to perform in Trelew, in the Northern Patagonia, on October 10 1971.
 
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OA940
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Re: Russian Plane "Disappears from Radar"

Sun Dec 25, 2016 7:04 pm

b747400erf wrote:
OA940 wrote:
I saw on the news there are no survivors out of the 92 people. GREAT! ANOTHER ONE HAS CRASHED! Can't 2017 come so we can forget about the worst year of the 21st century? Also if it was nighttime an explosion would've been seen if the plane was so close to land, and there are no such reports, plus this was a goverment a/c, so security would've been much tighter. Spacial disorientation looks most likely at night. I hope it doesn't turn out to be pilot error. Never good to hear that on a goverment crash. Prayers to all the families

Do not worry little fella! In 2017 not a single person will die.


He prayed, most likely in vain.
A350/CSeries = bae
 
asdf
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Re: Russian military plane "Disappears from Radar"

Sun Dec 25, 2016 7:13 pm

video is told to be from sochi beach cameras
no idea if true

left upper corner
kinda light flash ...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VE2BRieTgr8

other cam
other distance of object (or other focal lengh)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k-K52HANHZE
 
UN_B732
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Re: Russian Plane "Disappears from Radar"

Sun Dec 25, 2016 7:15 pm

Thank you. In fact; according to the Washington Post article about the tragedy; Dr. Glinka was accompanying a shipment of medical supplies to a Children's Hospital.

eielef wrote:
JayBCNLON wrote:
Well, Russian Air Force planes usually have to take a detour over the Caspian Sea towards Iran and via Iraq to Latakia. So that may explain the fuel stop.
It must be a very rough comparison as mother Theresa probably never flew on an Air Force plane into a war zone where the nation of the Air Force plane is a fighting party. It sounds more like Elisabeta Glinka was used by the Russian regime as troop entertainment and as camouflage for the atrocities taking place with Russian assistance to say the least. More like a Marilyn Monroe supporting the us troops in the Korean War.


I think you are being disrespectful towards Ms Glinka, and towards the Russian people. She was a very loved person in Russia, and today in the Catholic Christmas Celebration we lighted candles for her and for all the people on that plane. She went to Syria as you have seen many policy makers in other conflicts, or journalists, or musicians, or volunteers. She is not troop entertainment, if so they would have sent a striper better. She was going to support not only the troops, but also the Syrian people who has been fighting a cruel war for too long.

Russia has set an official day of mourning for tomorrow 26 DEC, and ISIS seems to be involved. I can't explain myself why they chose Sochi to refuel. But if seen in the map, is from a reaching distance from some rockets maybe from northeastern Turkey or western Georgia...

I know two crashes involving artists. One was in Iowa, on Feb. 3 1959, when three famous rock and roll musicians Buddy Holly, Ritchie Valens, and J. P. "The Big Bopper" Richardson died together with the pilot in a small Beech Bonanza. This is known as "The day the music died" (remember the song American Pie).
The other was in the Río de la Plata, not far from Buenos Aires, when also a small plane, a QueenAir LV-JOC, taking 9 performers of the Colón Ballet, the best in Argentina, short after taking off to perform in Trelew, in the Northern Patagonia, on October 10 1971.
What now?
 
ual4life
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Re: Russian Plane "Disappears from Radar"

Sun Dec 25, 2016 7:46 pm

JayBCNLON wrote:
Well, Russian Air Force planes usually have to take a detour over the Caspian Sea towards Iran and via Iraq to Latakia. So that may explain the fuel stop.
It must be a very rough comparison as mother Theresa probably never flew on an Air Force plane into a war zone where the nation of the Air Force plane is a fighting party. It sounds more like Elisabeta Glinka was used by the Russian regime as troop entertainment and as camouflage for the atrocities taking place with Russian assistance to say the least. More like a Marilyn Monroe supporting the us troops in the Korean War.


You need to show some respect, you don't know this lady. Your political opinions should have no place on this thread- They were noncombatants plain and simple, including the band. People are dead and all you can do is focus on theoretical conspiracy speculative nonsense. Lovely.
NNVII
 
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aerolimani
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Re: Russian military plane "Disappears from Radar"

Sun Dec 25, 2016 9:18 pm

Edit: extraneous post removed
 
andymartin
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Re: Russian military plane "Disappears from Radar"

Sun Dec 25, 2016 10:26 pm

Its got to be a bomb I would suggest
 
b747400erf
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Re: Russian Plane "Disappears from Radar"

Sun Dec 25, 2016 10:27 pm

ual4life wrote:
JayBCNLON wrote:
Well, Russian Air Force planes usually have to take a detour over the Caspian Sea towards Iran and via Iraq to Latakia. So that may explain the fuel stop.
It must be a very rough comparison as mother Theresa probably never flew on an Air Force plane into a war zone where the nation of the Air Force plane is a fighting party. It sounds more like Elisabeta Glinka was used by the Russian regime as troop entertainment and as camouflage for the atrocities taking place with Russian assistance to say the least. More like a Marilyn Monroe supporting the us troops in the Korean War.


You need to show some respect, you don't know this lady. Your political opinions should have no place on this thread- They were noncombatants plain and simple, including the band. People are dead and all you can do is focus on theoretical conspiracy speculative nonsense. Lovely.


If it was an attack, it was a military airplane, and a valid target. If this was an attack, it is possible those that targeted the military aircraft did not know who would be on it. If it was a chartered aircraft from a private airline that would be a different story. I still do not see how it could have been an attack, is Sochi that open to terrorists? Did the aircraft spend the night on the ramp with no guards? Do these groups have the intelligence ability and reach to do such a thing to a non scheduled flight? So far the tragedy to me is not terrorism until they can investigate and come to a conclusion using facts.
 
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JannEejit
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Re: Russian military plane "Disappears from Radar"

Sun Dec 25, 2016 10:57 pm

Can a bird strike theory apply at that time of the morning in darkness ?
 
MalevTU134
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Re: Russian Plane "Disappears from Radar"

Sun Dec 25, 2016 11:41 pm

b747400erf wrote:
ual4life wrote:
JayBCNLON wrote:
Well, Russian Air Force planes usually have to take a detour over the Caspian Sea towards Iran and via Iraq to Latakia. So that may explain the fuel stop.
It must be a very rough comparison as mother Theresa probably never flew on an Air Force plane into a war zone where the nation of the Air Force plane is a fighting party. It sounds more like Elisabeta Glinka was used by the Russian regime as troop entertainment and as camouflage for the atrocities taking place with Russian assistance to say the least. More like a Marilyn Monroe supporting the us troops in the Korean War.


You need to show some respect, you don't know this lady. Your political opinions should have no place on this thread- They were noncombatants plain and simple, including the band. People are dead and all you can do is focus on theoretical conspiracy speculative nonsense. Lovely.


If it was an attack, it was a military airplane, and a valid target. If this was an attack, it is possible those that targeted the military aircraft did not know who would be on it. If it was a chartered aircraft from a private airline that would be a different story. I still do not see how it could have been an attack, is Sochi that open to terrorists? Did the aircraft spend the night on the ramp with no guards? Do these groups have the intelligence ability and reach to do such a thing to a non scheduled flight? So far the tragedy to me is not terrorism until they can investigate and come to a conclusion using facts.


From the rt.com coverage linked to in one of the first posts:

"Officials are not considering a terrorist act to have been the prime cause of the incident, a security source told Interfax. It added that the crashed plane was initially supposed to refuel in the city of Mozdok, North Ossetia, but due to bad weather redirected to the airport at the Black Sea coast resort of Adler. After landing the aircraft was guarded until it departed for Syria."
 
fanofjets
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Re: Russian military plane "Disappears from Radar"

Mon Dec 26, 2016 12:10 am

My thoughts are with the families and the victims, as well as all of Russia, including the personnel stationed in Syria anticipating the performance. I am staying away from politics - this is a human tragedy.
The aeroplane has unveiled for us the true face of the earth. -Antoine de Saint-Exupery
 
MalevTU134
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Re: Russian Plane "Disappears from Radar"

Mon Dec 26, 2016 12:19 am

awthompson wrote:
It could not have been airborne twenty minutes as impact site is only a short distance from the airport, unless it had turned round and was on final approach to land back. Twenty seconds is more likely.


In fact, the site of impact is unknown, they are still searching for it. Debris was found 1.5 km off the coast, oil slicks 6-8 kms off the coast. Plane not found yet.

In the following link (already provided by other member above), you can see and hear the reference to the 20 minutes of flight at the RT news piece at 06.05 GMT.

Not that it adds any useful information, but the takeoff from Sochi/Adler can be seen at 10.50 GMT, from the airport's CCTV camera.

https://www.rt.com/news/371627-russia-m ... e-missing/
 
juliuswong
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Re: Russian Plane "Disappears from Radar"

Mon Dec 26, 2016 4:47 am

JayBCNLON wrote:
ZKCIF wrote:
tu204 wrote:
This aircraft was enroute from Chkalovsky Airbase in Moscow enroute to Khmeimim Airbase in Latakia, Syria with officers and artists onboard to perform for the troops stationed at Khmeimim.

Sochi was a refuelling stop.


What is the point of the refueling stop?
ZIA-LTK is 1247nm only, Tu-154 can fly there and back, especially with as low a load as 84pax and low cargo (presumably, instruments only)

A crazily well-known person was onboard
Глинка, Елизавета Петровна
roughly, an equivalent of Mother Teresa


Well, Russian Air Force planes usually have to take a detour over the Caspian Sea towards Iran and via Iraq to Latakia. So that may explain the fuel stop.

It must be a very rough comparison as mother Theresa probably never flew on an Air Force plane into a war zone where the nation of the Air Force plane is a fighting party. It sounds more like Elisabeta Glinka was used by the Russian regime as troop entertainment and as camouflage for the atrocities taking place with Russian assistance to say the least. More like a Marilyn Monroe supporting the us troops in the Korean War.

Oh please, save your political post for another day. 91 souls died and this is the best that you can come up with. It was a good thing that the admin remove the "flag" beside username in the new airliners.net, if not you would make the rest of citizens in your country of nationality look stupid and ignorant. Please.......
- Life is a journey, travel it well -
 
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aerolimani
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Re: Russian Plane "Disappears from Radar"

Mon Dec 26, 2016 6:08 am

juliuswong wrote:
Oh please, save your political post for another day. 91 souls died and this is the best that you can come up with. It was a good thing that the admin remove the "flag" beside username in the new airliners.net, if not you would make the rest of citizens in your country of nationality look stupid and ignorant. Please.......

Agreed!

Although, the flag thing was never very accurate. I think they may have been as many a.netters (supposedly) from Tuvalu as there are citizens of the country.
 
dc863
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Re: Russian military plane "Disappears from Radar"

Mon Dec 26, 2016 6:09 am

asdf wrote:
video is told to be from sochi beach cameras
no idea if true

left upper corner
kinda light flash ...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VE2BRieTgr8

other cam
other distance of object (or other focal lengh)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k-K52HANHZE



Interesting video. Bomb, missile strike, or possible case of pilot spatial disorientation and break up?
 
Ned Kelly
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Re: Russian Plane "Disappears from Radar"

Mon Dec 26, 2016 7:35 am

ZKCIF wrote:
tu204 wrote:
This aircraft was enroute from Chkalovsky Airbase in Moscow enroute to Khmeimim Airbase in Latakia, Syria with officers and artists onboard to perform for the troops stationed at Khmeimim.

Sochi was a refuelling stop.



What is the point of the refueling stop?
ZIA-LTK is 1247nm only, Tu-154 can fly there and back, especially with as low a load as 84pax and low cargo (presumably, instruments only)

A crazily well-known person was onboard
Глинка, Елизавета Петровна
roughly, an equivalent of Mother Teresa


Very sad news about the loss of this aircraft and those on board.

Although the Tu-154 may be capable of making the flight direct without the fuel stop in Sochi, perhaps instead it intended to take on enough fuel in Sochi so that it could make the return flight to Sochi without having to refuel in Syria. Perhaps the fuel stop was for strategic reasons as the fuel at the airbase in Syria is prioritised for the military aircraft and fuel may be either in short supply or future supply can't be guaranteed. After all, this is technically a war zone. I have no technical expertise on this or information, just a guess.

I have also seen some disrespectful comments made about this tragedy, (not necessarily on here, but on other non aviation sites). At the end of the day a lot of people died in this tragedy and they all have families, and we should respect this. Although some may disagree, when I first heard about this crash and the loss of the military band who were on board who were due to entertain the Russian troops in Syria, it drew comparisons to the loss of Glen Miller and others who were also entertaining the troops and who were lost in a plane crash during the 2nd World War.
 
Ned Kelly
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Re: Russian military plane "Disappears from Radar"

Mon Dec 26, 2016 7:40 am

Just noted that this topic has been moved to the 'Military Aviation & Space Flight' forum from the 'Civil Aviation' forum! Although it was operating a military flight, it is a civilian airliner carrying a civil registration and took off from a civilian airport after all. IMO.
 
eielef
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Re: Russian military plane "Disappears from Radar"

Mon Dec 26, 2016 8:10 am

All in all, yesterday evening the risk alert of a terrorist attack was on 4/5. That's very high (but not extreme). So everyone had to be checked before entering anywhere, shopping malls, metro stations, etc. It is this way every last week of the year, but last two years it was just 3/5.
I did a study on all the Tu154 that were involved in catastrophes, basing my research on russianplanes.net Thing is they have the fate of 949 planes, as it seems the rest (some sources indicate that 1016/1020 were built) are still going to be built.
The Tu154A and Tu154B (built 1968-1986) can be identified by their first registration: from CCCP-85000 to CCCP-85605). Catastrophes were on 85022, 85027 (LZ-BTB), 85048 (SU-AVB), 85053 (HA-LCI), 85054 (LZ-BTN), 85091, 85102, 85163, 85164, 85169, 85222, 85243, 85254, 85277 (YR-TPH), 85281, 85282, 85311, 85338, 85355, 85408 (YR-TPJ), 85480, 85557, 85572, 85588. (23 from 606)
The Tu154M (built 1984- ~1998) is harder to find, so well use the CN (it goes from CN 0701 to 1020). Catastrophes were on 0720 (CU-T1264), 0740 (B-2610), 0742 (RA-85621), 0748 (EP-CPG), 0788 (EP-MCF), 0801 (RA-85656), 0813 (German Air Force 11+02), 0837 (Polish Air Force 101), 0846 (B-2622), 0867 (RA-85693), 0871 (EP-MBS), 0894 (RA-85185), 0903 (EP-ITD), 0927 (RA-85744), 1006 (RA-85816). (15 from 343).
It has a very poor safety record. And many of these crashes were famous. For example, the mid-air collision in Überlingen (Germany) involving RA-85816 and a DHL B757. The previously mentioned accident of the German Air Force 11+02 in Namibia. The Polish Presidential Plane in Smolensk (101). CCCP-85311 (SU7425) was the worse accident in Soviet and Uzbek history, with 200 casualties.
 
b747400erf
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Re: Russian military plane "Disappears from Radar"

Mon Dec 26, 2016 9:26 am

Ned Kelly wrote:
Just noted that this topic has been moved to the 'Military Aviation & Space Flight' forum from the 'Civil Aviation' forum! Although it was operating a military flight, it is a civilian airliner carrying a civil registration and took off from a civilian airport after all. IMO.


Taking off from a civilian airport means nothing. It was a government aircraft operated by the military. Russia has many military and government aircraft registered RA-XXXXX
 
CF-CPI
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Re: Russian military plane "Disappears from Radar"

Mon Dec 26, 2016 9:55 am

eielef wrote:
It has a very poor safety record.


I hope we'll get some feedback on handling an airframe that has a reputation for being 'difficult to fly'. I did read something to the effect that deck angle on takeoff has to be managed carefully. I'd be curious if there is some sort of potential deep stall effect, similar to the Trident, in which the wing can interfere with airflow to the engines and tail control surfaces.

It's not clear what caused the crash in Sochi, but if any anetters have direct experience handling a TU-154, it would be interesting to hear your comments.
 
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CrimsonNL
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Re: Russian military plane "Disappears from Radar"

Mon Dec 26, 2016 10:23 am

eielef wrote:
It has a very poor safety record.


Though the number of 154's involved in crashes is impressive, I believe that only a handful are related to the aircraft itself. The remainder are all a result of poor airmanship, extreme weather and poor maintenance.

Martijn
Always comparing your flown types list with mine
 
WIederling
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Re: Russian Plane "Disappears from Radar"

Mon Dec 26, 2016 10:51 am

aerolimani wrote:
Although, the flag thing was never very accurate. I think they may have been as many a.netters (supposedly) from Tuvalu as there are citizens of the country.


When bagpacking as a student I was surprised how many US-Americans cloaked their bagpack with a maple leaf flag.
Murphy is an optimist
 
salttee
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Re: Russian Plane "Disappears from Radar"

Mon Dec 26, 2016 2:06 pm

From reports that they are finding what appears to be fairly widely scattered pieces, this is looking like a mid-air breakup. Some of the pieces have been said to have been found 1.2 miles from shore which puts the beginning of the wreck site at 2.2 miles from the end of the runway, so the plane couldn't have been very high or very fast when it left the flight path.



WIederling wrote:
When bagpacking as a student I was surprised how many US-Americans cloaked their bagpack with a maple leaf flag.

You saw both of them?
 
drajoshi
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Re: Russian military plane "Disappears from Radar"

Mon Dec 26, 2016 2:34 pm

No distress call from flight crew does imply sudden catastrophic event. Bomb theory would explain sudden disappearance from radar with no prior warning.
 
wezgulf3
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Re: Russian military plane "Disappears from Radar"

Mon Dec 26, 2016 2:59 pm

Surely if this was a Bomb the Group who planted it would be spreading the word over the Internet pretty much instantly? Blowing up a Military jet would be a coup for any of the terrorist groups you would think?

Wes...
 
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AirlineCritic
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Re: Russian military plane "Disappears from Radar"

Mon Dec 26, 2016 3:12 pm

Mourning the loss of Red Army Choir. Saw them perform with Leningrad Cowboys in Helsinki many years ago.

But what evidence is there at this time for the terrorist theory? I get it that it is one of the possibilities, but there are so many reasons for accidents... including some that could lead to inflight break-up, flashes of light, etc that may be the case here as well. I also see some reason to doubt the terrorist theory, given that a military plane and its passengers would be better guarded and also less likely part of the terrorist organisations.
 
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Balerit
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Re: Russian military plane "Disappears from Radar"

Mon Dec 26, 2016 3:12 pm

RIP

https://youtu.be/HiDAQQngzT0

Sorry, not sure how to post youtube videos.
Licensed Aircraft Maintenance Engineer (retired).
 
drajoshi
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Re: Russian military plane "Disappears from Radar"

Mon Dec 26, 2016 3:37 pm

Can an expert here enumerate possible non terror related cause(s) of sudden flight break up with fireball (if the presumed Sochi beach videos are true) that leaves no time for flight crew to convey distress? TWA 800 accident is the only one that comes to my mind which was non terror related. The others (close to 50) are all terror strikes either bomb or missile. Given the extremely rare occurrence of such a scenario due to technical issue, a terror attack remains a high possibility.
Last edited by drajoshi on Mon Dec 26, 2016 3:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
sovietjet
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Re: Russian military plane "Disappears from Radar"

Mon Dec 26, 2016 3:43 pm

eielef wrote:
It has a very poor safety record. And many of these crashes were famous. For example, the mid-air collision in Überlingen (Germany) involving RA-85816 and a DHL B757. The previously mentioned accident of the German Air Force 11+02 in Namibia. The Polish Presidential Plane in Smolensk (101).


How are these the fault of the airplane? The Boeing 727 is not any safer if we compare using this method.
 
drajoshi
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Re: Russian military plane "Disappears from Radar"

Mon Dec 26, 2016 4:12 pm

https://www.rt.com/news/371796-tu154-cr ... -versions/

Looks like terrorism ruled out so far reports RT news (if one can trust FSB data/info).
 
prebennorholm
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Re: Russian Plane "Disappears from Radar"

Mon Dec 26, 2016 5:47 pm

Ned Kelly wrote:
Although the Tu-154 may be capable of making the flight direct without the fuel stop in Sochi, perhaps instead it intended to take on enough fuel in Sochi so that it could make the return flight to Sochi without having to refuel in Syria. Perhaps the fuel stop was for strategic reasons as the fuel at the airbase in Syria is prioritised for the military aircraft and fuel may be either in short supply or future supply can't be guaranteed. After all, this is technically a war zone. I have no technical expertise on this or information, just a guess.

If reports are correct, that this plane was RA-85572, then it was an almost 35 years old Tu-154B, one of the very last non-Tu-154M flying, if not the very last.

Those B-models were pretty short legged, having a somewhat lower MTOW and much more thirsty Kuznetsov NK-8 engines instead of the M-model with much superior Soloviev D-30 engines.

Those Tu-154 had a somewhat troubled EIS. Almost immediately they developed fatigue cracks in the wings. Some were repaired and put into service with reduced MTOW, others got entirely new wings. But it lasted a decade or two until the Tu-154 emerged as a mature product as the Tu-154M. The B- and the M-models have little more that the look in common.

In a centrally governed country like the USSR 30 years ago it may make perfectly sense that "inferior products" get used to their reduced capabilities instead of extremely costly repairs and updates. So who knows what RA-85572 was really able to do? Payload/range capability might have been less than half of a typical Tu-154M version.
Always keep your number of landings equal to your number of take-offs
 
JoergAtADN
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Re: Russian military plane "Disappears from Radar"

Mon Dec 26, 2016 6:44 pm

drajoshi wrote:
Can an expert here enumerate possible non terror related cause(s) of sudden flight break up with fireball (if the presumed Sochi beach videos are true) that leaves no time for flight crew to convey distress? TWA 800 accident is the only one that comes to my mind which was non terror related. The others (close to 50) are all terror strikes either bomb or missile. Given the extremely rare occurrence of such a scenario due to technical issue, a terror attack remains a high possibility.


-Mid-Air Collisison (Plane, Drone, weather ballon, etc.)
-Military attacks (this could be an legal war action according international law -> not terrorism)
-Friendly Fire
-Explosive freight ignited
 
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AirlineCritic
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Re: Russian military plane "Disappears from Radar"

Mon Dec 26, 2016 7:46 pm

Yes. Plus:

- structural breakups (e.g., stress related) may lead to fireballs
- the above might also be due to bad attitude that leads to unrecoverable forces leading to plane breakup at altitude (initiated, e.g., due to spatial disorientation)
- engine explosion/fire
- CFIT and the plane explosion when it hits the sea (though the light seemed to be higher than horizon... maybe)

And I'm not even sure what we saw was an explosion... the video that I saw might have been a light pointing momentarily to the direction of camera as well.
 
sovietjet
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Re: Russian Plane "Disappears from Radar"

Mon Dec 26, 2016 8:03 pm

prebennorholm wrote:
If reports are correct, that this plane was RA-85572, then it was an almost 35 years old Tu-154B, one of the very last non-Tu-154M flying, if not the very last.

Those B-models were pretty short legged, having a somewhat lower MTOW and much more thirsty Kuznetsov NK-8 engines instead of the M-model with much superior Soloviev D-30 engines.

Those Tu-154 had a somewhat troubled EIS. Almost immediately they developed fatigue cracks in the wings. Some were repaired and put into service with reduced MTOW, others got entirely new wings. But it lasted a decade or two until the Tu-154 emerged as a mature product as the Tu-154M. The B- and the M-models have little more that the look in common.


While you are correct that this was a 35 year old plane, age alone is unlikely to be the cause. This plane had spent its entire life with the military. At the time of the crash it only had 6689 hours which is very low. The RuAF currently uses 12 more Tu-154Bs. They are not fuel efficient, but this is not a big concern for the military which utilizes them much less than an airline. The wing problems only affected the pure Tu-154 and Tu-154A. The ones in use now are much later build Tu-154Bs which already had the upgraded wings.
 
tu204
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Re: Russian military plane "Disappears from Radar"

Mon Dec 26, 2016 8:25 pm

Reason for the refuelling stop is that Turkey does not allow Russia military flights to and from Syria. Therefore the routing from Sochi is East to the Caspian Sea, South along the Caspian to Iran, West through Iran and Iraq into Syria.
The route is 2 times longer than the direct route over Turkey.
Plus this is the Tupolev 154-B2 model which has less range than the M model most of you are thinking of.
I do not dream about movie stars, they must dream about me for I am real and they are not. - Alexander Popov
 
eielef
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Re: Russian military plane "Disappears from Radar"

Mon Dec 26, 2016 8:31 pm

sovietjet wrote:
How are these the fault of the airplane? The Boeing 727 is not any safer if we compare using this method.

You are very right, but there are some mayor differences between the B727 and the Tu154. I don't have the exact numbers of accidents including victims but i doubt they were 38/949 accidents with victims. Most of the 727 flew, also, until they run out of hours, or cycles, they were heavy used, or at least more used than the Tu154. E.G. the one involved in the accident yesterday had only 6154 hours of flying (and a life of 60.000). And those were done in 34 years. So imagine they spent many years stored (at CKL it was left most of the 1990s).
There were many accidents when the plane wasn't guilty. A faulty crew, and sometimes some worse events, like two mid-air collisions, both due to bad ATC (in LAD and in ZRH), another due to pressure to land in extreme bad weather (as in the Polish presidential plane), and, if i'm not mistaken, a big accident happened in some soviet airport (i believe OMS) when they landed and crashed a vehicle that was cleaning the lights of the runway. Bad luck. Serious bad luck. I have the same love for the B727 than for the Tu154. I regret not having been able to fly on the Tu154A or B, nor the B721, but i did what i could, having been born in the wrong era, or at least being too young or too remote to be able to fly those birds..
 
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Aesma
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Re: Russian military plane "Disappears from Radar"

Mon Dec 26, 2016 9:39 pm

Ned Kelly wrote:
Just noted that this topic has been moved to the 'Military Aviation & Space Flight' forum from the 'Civil Aviation' forum! Although it was operating a military flight, it is a civilian airliner carrying a civil registration and took off from a civilian airport after all. IMO.


Aren't civilian airlines banned from flying the Tu-154A/B ?
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
b747400erf
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Re: Russian military plane "Disappears from Radar"

Mon Dec 26, 2016 11:35 pm

tu204 wrote:
Reason for the refuelling stop is that Turkey does not allow Russia military flights to and from Syria. Therefore the routing from Sochi is East to the Caspian Sea, South along the Caspian to Iran, West through Iran and Iraq into Syria.
The route is 2 times longer than the direct route over Turkey.
Plus this is the Tupolev 154-B2 model which has less range than the M model most of you are thinking of.

If that is the routing why were they flying west over the sea from Sochi?

With no evidence and my previous comments about how difficult it would be for a terrorist to get near the aircraft unless this is an inside job, explosive freight or a breakup and failure of some part of the aircraft are my theories.
 
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Moose135
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Re: Russian military plane "Disappears from Radar"

Tue Dec 27, 2016 1:09 am

b747400erf wrote:
If that is the routing why were they flying west over the sea from Sochi?

They were only a mile or two off the end of the runway, still on initial departure, they wouldn't have necessarily started on course yet.
KC-135 - Passing gas and taking names!
 
salttee
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Re: Russian military plane "Disappears from Radar"

Tue Dec 27, 2016 1:27 am

b747400erf wrote:
tu204 wrote:
Reason for the refuelling stop is that Turkey does not allow Russia military flights to and from Syria. Therefore the routing from Sochi is East to the Caspian Sea, South along the Caspian to Iran, West through Iran and Iraq into Syria.
The route is 2 times longer than the direct route over Turkey.
Plus this is the Tupolev 154-B2 model which has less range than the M model most of you are thinking of.

If that is the routing why were they flying west over the sea from Sochi?

I would surmise that they might have dropped off or picked up passengers (or freight) at Sochi but Sochi might also be the most sensible route between Moscow and Latakia anyway. They could have shaved 119 NM off the flight if they refueled at Mozdok; that's no big deal. Also, fuel might better be obtained at Sochi but that's just speculation..

Ballpark figures:
Moscow to Lataka via Sochi 1,939 NM
Moscow to Lataka via Mozdok 1,820 NM - 119 NM difference


Moscow to Lataka direct over Turkey 1,223 NM - not possible
 
asdf
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Re: Russian military plane "Disappears from Radar"

Tue Dec 27, 2016 1:40 am

dc863 wrote:
asdf wrote:
video is told to be from sochi beach cameras
no idea if true

left upper corner
kinda light flash ...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VE2BRieTgr8

other cam
other distance of object (or other focal lengh)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k-K52HANHZE


ö
Interesting video. Bomb, missile strike, or possible case of pilot spatial disorientation and break up?


first of all it needs to be verified
this kinda flash could be faked very easy ...
 
salttee
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Re: Russian military plane "Disappears from Radar"

Tue Dec 27, 2016 2:32 am

asdf wrote:
first of all it needs to be verified
this kinda flash could be faked very easy ...

Not so easily. The video was released very early on, shortly after the plane was reported missing, I remember seeing it then, but I have no record to show,

Unless one subscribes to some grand plot, which does not at all appear to be the case here, that video is likely to be real.
Does anybody here know the coordinates of the camera that caught the flash?



RUSSIAN JET CAUGHT ON CCTV? Bright flash captured on CCTV over the Sochi coastline sparks theories it could be Russian military jet’s last moments
THE video captured a sudden flash in the sky but from a long distance away
By WILL STEWART
25th December 2016, 4:55 pm
 
radargeek
Posts: 11
Joined: Mon Dec 26, 2016 4:34 am

Re: Russian military plane "Disappears from Radar"

Tue Dec 27, 2016 4:32 am

Image

A Russian friend emailed this to me earlier today. I do not know how accurate, if at all, this is. He did state this was the typical route used for RR Mil a/c departing Sochi. The land route over Iran, as opposed to Turkey due to NATO restrictions.
 
salttee
Posts: 3149
Joined: Wed Jul 13, 2016 3:26 am

Re: Russian military plane "Disappears from Radar"

Tue Dec 27, 2016 5:12 am

radargeek wrote:
Image

A Russian friend emailed this to me earlier today. I do not know how accurate, if at all, this is. He did state this was the typical route used for RR Mil a/c departing Sochi. The land route over Iran, as opposed to Turkey due to NATO restrictions.
It may give a general picture but it can't be accurate. It shows the plane traveling about 50 miles in two minutes.

Edit:
Maybe only about 25 miles in two minutes if I have the geography right. Still not possible,
 
JoergAtADN
Posts: 74
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Re: Russian military plane "Disappears from Radar"

Tue Dec 27, 2016 7:12 am

Hello,

salttee wrote:
asdf wrote:
that video is likely to be real.
Does anybody here know the coordinates of the camera that caught the flash?


I think also that these videos are real, but I'm not sure, that what we see there, is the explosion of an aircraft. I guess this could be also the landing flares of the returning aircraft.

Jörg
 
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Aesma
Posts: 12554
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Re: Russian military plane "Disappears from Radar"

Tue Dec 27, 2016 11:01 am

salttee wrote:
radargeek wrote:
Image

A Russian friend emailed this to me earlier today. I do not know how accurate, if at all, this is. He did state this was the typical route used for RR Mil a/c departing Sochi. The land route over Iran, as opposed to Turkey due to NATO restrictions.
It may give a general picture but it can't be accurate. It shows the plane traveling about 50 miles in two minutes.

Edit:
Maybe only about 25 miles in two minutes if I have the geography right. Still not possible,


He's talking about the map in the top right corner.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
salttee
Posts: 3149
Joined: Wed Jul 13, 2016 3:26 am

Re: Russian military plane "Disappears from Radar"

Tue Dec 27, 2016 11:18 am

Aesma wrote:
He's talking about the map in the top right corner.

The larger lower sketch kinda stands out. The time shown there of 05:25 is the time of departure. And he did use the word departure.

Somebody in Russia traced a proposed terminal path for the plane, I find that noteworthy.
 
CF-CPI
Posts: 1448
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Re: Russian military plane "Disappears from Radar"

Tue Dec 27, 2016 2:18 pm

Reports are coming along on this Tuesday morning:
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-38441903

One black box has been recovered, and the above bbc report seems to confirm that the aircraft made a U turn similar to the graphics posted above. The cockpit did not relay anything that would indicate a malfunction or emergency. Whatever happened they kept to themselves, and would likely turn up on the CVR.

There is now some speculation regarding weight and balance, but at the moment it sounds a bit hazy, as one would expect in the early portions of the investigation.
 
radargeek
Posts: 11
Joined: Mon Dec 26, 2016 4:34 am

Re: Russian military plane "Disappears from Radar"

Tue Dec 27, 2016 6:25 pm

A Russian aviation site claiming knowledge of the cockpit recordings states the last cockpit audio consisted of "Flaps, bitch!" And then "Commander, we fall". This a very rough translation using Google's translation tool.

https://defence.ru/article/stali-izvestni-poslednie-slova-pilotov-tu-154/

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