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ThePointblank
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Re: Replacement of Austrian Typhoons

Tue Jul 11, 2017 4:06 am

Dutchy wrote:
angad84 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
I see a combination of 20-25 PC-21 and 18 Saab JAS39 E/F Gripen in Austria's future.

Sounds about right. They might even be prime contenders for some of the C/D jets that Saab insists still have a market.


Yup or even A/B models if there are some left in storage. They only need them to police the skies. But with the 2020 time frame in mind, I would say that new build E/F are most likely.

Or, KAI F/A-50's... more than sufficient for what the Austrians want, and cheap enough to boot to operate as both a trainer and as an air policing aircraft. The Philippines bought 12 for about $34 million each. More then enough performance to patrol Austria's skies, and the aircraft can double as a jet trainer for pilots.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Replacement of Austrian Typhoons

Tue Jul 11, 2017 6:47 am

It is set up for Gripens. There is a pilot training agreement with the Czech republic already signed and there suddenly is a desire for medium range AAMs, optical sensors and a full suit of defensive aid systems. In the original study the EF is described as unsuitable because it lacks the optical sensors and the defensive aids systems, which Austria did intentionally not order when they ordered the EF. This deal is at least as suspicious as the EF decision.

The whole study is full of stupid lies. Like that Austria would be the only customer that would fly Typhoons Tranche 1 - which is simply wrong as all other partner nations want to keep on flying the Tranche 1 frames, Austria would only be the only user still using standard Block2. The cost of upgrading the Typhoons to the desired standard is based on upgrading them further than Block 5, which is also strange, as British Block 5s have all the systems Austria desires and Austrian frames could be up-graded with ease. And the list goes on, just like 18 planes are seen as the minimum while the EF fleet is at 15 and so too small. However the Brits want to retire a number of T1 in the next years, so 3 frames could be purchased from there or from Spain and Italy who also have surplus T1s.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Replacement of Austrian Typhoons

Tue Jul 11, 2017 9:53 am

So is it set up for new build Gripens, so the E/F model, or for the C/D model?
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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seahawk
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Re: Replacement of Austrian Typhoons

Tue Jul 11, 2017 10:05 am

Considering the delivery time and costs given, my bet would be on used C/Ds.
 
Ozair
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Re: Replacement of Austrian Typhoons

Tue Jul 11, 2017 10:32 pm

seahawk wrote:
The whole study is full of stupid lies. Like that Austria would be the only customer that would fly Typhoons Tranche 1 - which is simply wrong as all other partner nations want to keep on flying the Tranche 1 frames, Austria would only be the only user still using standard Block2. The cost of upgrading the Typhoons to the desired standard is based on upgrading them further than Block 5, which is also strange, as British Block 5s have all the systems Austria desires and Austrian frames could be up-graded with ease. And the list goes on, just like 18 planes are seen as the minimum while the EF fleet is at 15 and so too small. However the Brits want to retire a number of T1 in the next years, so 3 frames could be purchased from there or from Spain and Italy who also have surplus T1s.

Agree completely. Way too many significant issues that seem to be glossed over, as well as some very suspect financial rationalization.
 
Planeflyer
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Re: Replacement of Austrian Typhoons

Wed Jul 12, 2017 3:15 am

Ok, seems Austria is a special case. Given the really limited needs is there a drone that could work?
 
tommy1808
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Re: Replacement of Austrian Typhoons

Wed Jul 12, 2017 8:48 am

Planeflyer wrote:
Ok, seems Austria is a special case. Given the really limited needs is there a drone that could work?


the supply side of the market for armed supersonic drones with optical and radar sensors is somewhat limited.

best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
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Devilfish
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Re: Replacement of Austrian Typhoons

Wed Jul 12, 2017 6:46 pm

ThePointblank wrote:
Or, KAI F/A-50's... more than sufficient for what the Austrians want, and cheap enough to boot to operate as both a trainer and as an air policing aircraft. The Philippines bought 12 for about $34 million each.

Not to sidetrack the thread -- rumors are that the PAF wants more. But a faction within the organization is adamant that the country needs a true MRF given current geopolitical situation. Considering acquisition & operations costs and that it will serve for 40 years at least - point to the Gripen E/F as the most logical option. Still, there are those who say it's too close to the FA-50 in capability and want something more substantial. The next step up are Vipers although per reports, new copies off the U.S. line would cost both arms and legs (loaded). An economical Indian F-16 could be a viable solution but the need for LM to guarantee a licensee's aircraft might jeopardize the joint venture. Perhaps Austria would be willing to part with their EFs at a bargain price to offset the huge O&M and upgrade costs? Those could give the PAF the big stick they were after in the short term, being relatively young. Would spare parts be a problem? :scratchchin:
"Everyone is entitled to my opinion." - Garfield
 
ThePointblank
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Re: Replacement of Austrian Typhoons

Thu Jul 13, 2017 7:10 am

Devilfish wrote:
ThePointblank wrote:
Or, KAI F/A-50's... more than sufficient for what the Austrians want, and cheap enough to boot to operate as both a trainer and as an air policing aircraft. The Philippines bought 12 for about $34 million each.

Not to sidetrack the thread -- rumors are that the PAF wants more. But a faction within the organization is adamant that the country needs a true MRF given current geopolitical situation. Considering acquisition & operations costs and that it will serve for 40 years at least - point to the Gripen E/F as the most logical option. Still, there are those who say it's too close to the FA-50 in capability and want something more substantial. The next step up are Vipers although per reports, new copies off the U.S. line would cost both arms and legs (loaded). An economical Indian F-16 could be a viable solution but the need for LM to guarantee a licensee's aircraft might jeopardize the joint venture. Perhaps Austria would be willing to part with their EFs at a bargain price to offset the huge O&M and upgrade costs? Those could give the PAF the big stick they were after in the short term, being relatively young. Would spare parts be a problem? :scratchchin:

Used F-16's are available. Lots to be had from a variety of sources, and lots of options for modernization.

I believe the F/A-50 is capable of more; some of it's potential is being held back because of the agreement LM and KAI had when they developed the aircraft. The EL/M-2032 is capable of guiding the Israeli Derby BVR missile; that could be a growth option for the type.
 
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Devilfish
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Re: Replacement of Austrian Typhoons

Thu Jul 13, 2017 3:56 pm

ThePointblank wrote:
Used F-16's are available. Lots to be had from a variety of sources, and lots of options for modernization.

True. Though it may end up costing as much if not more than brand-new Gripens and the air force will still be stuck with old, second-hand fighters. The only hope is if the U.S. would offer the remaining undelivered Block 50 F-16s for Pak through FMS like it did A/B models before.

ThePointblank wrote:
I believe the F/A-50 is capable of more; some of it's potential is being held back because of the agreement LM and KAI had when they developed the aircraft. The EL/M-2032 is capable of guiding the Israeli Derby BVR missile; that could be a growth option for the type.

And there lies the difficulty. The Gripen has the edge in this regard as both single and two seat variants are open for development...with at least the Brazilian order and other campaigns to insure it wouldn't be an orphan fleet. Maybe the PAF can leverage its familiarity with Korean aircraft when the KF_X becomes real?...but it's still a long time away yet.

http://www.defense-aerospace.com/articl ... shape.html


I'm not really advocating for the country to jump into operating expensive, complex fighters now. Merely contrasting the predicaments both air forces find themselves in. On one hand a relatively well-off country with a well-trained, decently-paid military, modern assets and no grave threats. On the other, an economic laggard with as yet not-too-proficient fighter pilot pool, a dozen LIFTs and struggling to keep its territory intact. To illustrate.....

http://www.defense-aerospace.com/articl ... ident.html

APKWS might have been the better (costlier?) weapon for the above seeing it has been tested on an F-16, but doubtful it would be released for integration on the FA-50.


Spiel over.....back to the Austrian Typhoons. :smile:
"Everyone is entitled to my opinion." - Garfield
 
Ozair
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Re: Replacement of Austrian Typhoons

Thu Dec 20, 2018 1:27 am

The Austrian Eurofighter decision continues to drag on with the option continuing on whether to upgrade or acquire a whole new aircraft. There have been numerous figures put out for the cost to upgrade the Tranche One aircraft and I have seen variances from tens of millions of dollars to the low billion level. I’d expect the reality is probably in the low hundreds of millions depending upon what capability enhancements they are seeking.

Austria delays decision on whether to scrap Eurofighter jets
Austria will not decide whether to scrap its fleet of Eurofighter jets until a parliamentary inquiry into their purchase wraps up and there is clarity over a judicial dispute related to the deal, the country's leader said on Wednesday.
Chancellor Sebastian Kurz's comments suggest it will be months or longer before the government reaches a decision that it had said it would announce this year.
Newspaper Die Presse reported last week the coalition government was split over whether to get rid of the jets, with Kurz's conservatives favouring keeping them and the far-right Freedom Party, which controls the Defence Ministry, taking the opposite view. The dispute is delaying a decision, it added.
"It is important to reach a decision when you are able to," Kurz told a news conference after a weekly cabinet meeting, when asked about a possible delay.
Austria is locked in a legal battle with planemaker Airbus and the Eurofighter consortium, which also includes BAE Systems and Italy's Leonardo.
Vienna accuses them of fraud and wilful deception in connection with its US$2 billion Eurofighter order in 2003. They deny Austria's allegations.
"We need clarity on whether anyone has done anything wrong, on whether partners currently being worked with have done anything wrong and when there is clarity on this then we will be able to reach further decisions," Kurz said, referring to the legal dispute and an ongoing parliamentary inquiry.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/wo ... s-11025836
 
Ozair
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Re: Replacement of Austrian Typhoons

Tue Jul 07, 2020 10:56 pm

Austria have finally decided to keep the Eurofighters, at least until the end of the current support contract with Airbus although the remaining duration of that contract hasn’t been released. Makes sense as it can often be cheaper to continue with a current contract than break it for a new one.

Austria to retain Eurofighters, retire Saab 105s

Austria is to retain its Eurofighter combat aircraft in service at the same time as retiring its Saab 105 jet trainers, the country’s defence minister announced.

Defence Minister Klaudia Tanner said on 6 July that the Austrian Air Force’s (Osterreichische Luftstreitkrafte) 15 Tranche 1 Eurofighters will remain until at least as long as the current contract with Airbus runs, while its 12-remaining Saab 105OEs will be withdrawn from 2021 as pilot training moves overseas.

Austria has for some years been looking to retire the Eurofighters it bought in 2003 for EUR1.75 billion (USD2.7 billion at the time), and replace them with a cheaper to operate aircraft. Although already truncated from a planned 24 (with options up to 30) aircraft for cost reasons, the deal was the largest procurement in the country’s history. Added to this initial outlay were persistent complaints from senior air force officials that operating costs were to high to sustain operations (USD73,000 per hour was one figure given, although this was disputed by Eurofighter).

According to national media, Tanner has decided to retain the Eurofighters it received between 2007 and 2009 as it would be prohibitively expensive to withdraw from the contract with Airbus (though the minister did not disclose when this contract is scheduled to terminate).

...

https://www.janes.com/defence-news/news ... e-saab-105

Sorry mods, appreciate this is an old thread but it is clearly the best place to post this update given all the previous discussion on the topic in the thread.
 
art
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Re: Replacement of Austrian Typhoons

Wed Jul 08, 2020 10:07 am

When will Germany start retiring T1 aircraft? I imagine that Austria could buy a few frames for cheap spares, bringing down maintenance costs. Then when Germany's T1 aircraft are withdrawn from service, Austria could buy the residual T1-specific spares at a bargain price.
 
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SQ22
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Re: Replacement of Austrian Typhoons

Wed Jul 08, 2020 4:36 pm

Ozair wrote:
Sorry mods, appreciate this is an old thread but it is clearly the best place to post this update given all the previous discussion on the topic in the thread.


This thread bump is approved, but please have a look at forum rules and contact moderators by mail to [email protected] in case you want to post in a thread which has been inactive for more than six months in the future.
 
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mercure1
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Re: Replacement of Austrian Typhoons

Mon Jul 20, 2020 4:05 am

Indonesia proposes to acquire Austrian Typhoon fleet!

Story(German)
https://www.krone.at/2194424

Letter from Indonesian government

Image
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EdTU0a1U8AE ... name=large
mercure f-wtcc
 
Ozair
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Re: Replacement of Austrian Typhoons

Mon Jul 20, 2020 4:46 am

mercure1 wrote:
Indonesia proposes to acquire Austrian Typhoon fleet!

Story(German)
https://www.krone.at/2194424

Letter from Indonesian government

Image
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EdTU0a1U8AE ... name=large

An interesting twist and a good thing we have this thread open and available for comment ;)

If I was a betting man I would gamble against the export going ahead based on Austria's signing of the ATT and their reluctance to export to nations with poor human rights records. https://www.austria.org/arms-trade-treaty
 
art
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Re: Replacement of Austrian Typhoons

Mon Jul 20, 2020 8:07 am

If that document is not a forgery and the outcome of the proposal is an agreement to sell Austrias's Typhoons, it begs the question of when. I presume Austria would have to drop air policing temporarily if this went through in the near future. How quickly could Austria induct a new fighter type if it decided to order something immediately?
 
mxaxai
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Re: Replacement of Austrian Typhoons

Mon Jul 20, 2020 9:24 am

art wrote:
If that document is not a forgery and the outcome of the proposal is an agreement to sell Austrias's Typhoons, it begs the question of when. I presume Austria would have to drop air policing temporarily if this went through in the near future. How quickly could Austria induct a new fighter type if it decided to order something immediately?

Per the Krone article, the Austrian ministry of defense confirmed that they received such a letter. I find it odd that there's a typo in the subject, though, so while Austria may have received this letter, it might not have been sent by Indonesia or Mr. Subianto.

Over the past few years, Indonesia has entered talks to buy the following:
8 MV-22 Osprey (USA)
2 A400M (EU)
"some" C-130J (USA)
48 Rafale (France)
11 Su-35 (Russia)
15 Eurofighter (Austria)
48 KF-X (Korea)
"2 squadrons" F-16V block 72 (USA)

They have not been able to fund any of these committments. I think we will see one or two deals, eventually, go through. I would give the KF-X the highest chance of success.

https://www.thejakartapost.com/academia ... nesia.html
https://www.defensenews.com/air/2018/03 ... irlifters/
https://thediplomat.com/2019/10/c130j-h ... -in-focus/
https://www.globaldefensecorp.com/forum ... air-force/
https://theaviationgeekclub.com/indones ... ssia-says/
https://www.thejakartapost.com/news/202 ... hters.html
https://www.flightglobal.com/defence/ad ... 51.article
https://dsm.forecastinternational.com/w ... -35-plans/
 
art
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Re: Replacement of Austrian Typhoons

Sat Jul 25, 2020 12:53 pm

Lomg term, according to capability needed, Austria could replace the Typhoons with

(a) Boeing T-7 fighters (giving commonality with some T-7 trainers to replace the SAAB 105)
(b) Gripen E, if more performance was needed, (with the possibility of some being F for advanced training)

Assuming Austria can soldier on with Typhoon for a few years, both these types should become an option (and not need replacing for a very long time).
 
texl1649
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Re: Replacement of Austrian Typhoons

Sat Jul 25, 2020 4:16 pm

Ozair wrote:
Austria have finally decided to keep the Eurofighters, at least until the end of the current support contract with Airbus although the remaining duration of that contract hasn’t been released. Makes sense as it can often be cheaper to continue with a current contract than break it for a new one.

Austria to retain Eurofighters, retire Saab 105s

Austria is to retain its Eurofighter combat aircraft in service at the same time as retiring its Saab 105 jet trainers, the country’s defence minister announced.

Defence Minister Klaudia Tanner said on 6 July that the Austrian Air Force’s (Osterreichische Luftstreitkrafte) 15 Tranche 1 Eurofighters will remain until at least as long as the current contract with Airbus runs, while its 12-remaining Saab 105OEs will be withdrawn from 2021 as pilot training moves overseas.

Austria has for some years been looking to retire the Eurofighters it bought in 2003 for EUR1.75 billion (USD2.7 billion at the time), and replace them with a cheaper to operate aircraft. Although already truncated from a planned 24 (with options up to 30) aircraft for cost reasons, the deal was the largest procurement in the country’s history. Added to this initial outlay were persistent complaints from senior air force officials that operating costs were to high to sustain operations (USD73,000 per hour was one figure given, although this was disputed by Eurofighter).

According to national media, Tanner has decided to retain the Eurofighters it received between 2007 and 2009 as it would be prohibitively expensive to withdraw from the contract with Airbus (though the minister did not disclose when this contract is scheduled to terminate).

...

https://www.janes.com/defence-news/news ... e-saab-105

Sorry mods, appreciate this is an old thread but it is clearly the best place to post this update given all the previous discussion on the topic in the thread.


I believe they are moving pilot training to the US, or am I wrong? Would the F-15EX not be a possibility? Boeing has been very aggressive with pricing and support costs, though I'm not sure what real specifications the Austrians are seeking.
 
mxaxai
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Re: Replacement of Austrian Typhoons

Sat Jul 25, 2020 6:53 pm

texl1649 wrote:
Would the F-15EX not be a possibility? Boeing has been very aggressive with pricing and support costs, though I'm not sure what real specifications the Austrians are seeking.

Boeing's aggressiveness comes from their need to be competitive against the F-35 within USAF. New export customers are unlikely to see the same offers. The F-15EX is only attractive for existing F-15 operators that want to avoid/postpone the time and cost of retraining their pilots.

The F-15 is comparable to the Eurofighter in almost every measure, with a slight bonus in range and payload. There is no financial advantage, especially not for an operator that only needs a light supersonic fighter for airspace policing. It's like replacing your Hummer with a Jeep for budget reasons when your requirements actually call for a Honda Civic.

I think a T-7 derivative could work pretty well, actually.
 
Ozair
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Re: Replacement of Austrian Typhoons

Sun Jul 26, 2020 12:23 am

texl1649 wrote:
I believe they are moving pilot training to the US, or am I wrong?

I hadn't heard that and according to this https://www.blogbeforeflight.net/2020/0 ... -jets.html they are after lead in trainers so doubt that is the plan.

texl1649 wrote:
Would the F-15EX not be a possibility? Boeing has been very aggressive with pricing and support costs, though I'm not sure what real specifications the Austrians are seeking.

The Austrians have reportedly had a lot of trouble paying for the operation of their Eurofighters. Much of that is apparently a poor contract with Airbus and the intention all along with potentially getting rid of the Eurofighters was to reduce long term costs. Bringing in a large and long range strike aircraft would not do that. There also won't be another European operator of the F-15EX or any F-15 for that matter and shortly no F-15s permanently based in Europe so it would be a more difficult and costly prospect to sustain.

mxaxai wrote:
I think a T-7 derivative could work pretty well, actually.

We don't know when the current sustainment contract for the Eurofighter ends and we also don't have a timeframe for when Boeing will make available a T-7 fighter derivative. How useful will a Mach 1.2 top speed fighter be for air policing?
 
art
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Re: Replacement of Austrian Typhoons

Sun Jul 26, 2020 3:01 am

Ozair wrote:
texl1649 wrote:
Would the F-15EX not be a possibility? Boeing has been very aggressive with pricing and support costs, though I'm not sure what real specifications the Austrians are seeking.

The Austrians have reportedly had a lot of trouble paying for the operation of their Eurofighters. Much of that is apparently a poor contract with Airbus and the intention all along with potentially getting rid of the Eurofighters was to reduce long term costs. Bringing in a large and long range strike aircraft would not do that. There also won't be another European operator of the F-15EX or any F-15 for that matter and shortly no F-15s permanently based in Europe so it would be a more difficult and costly prospect to sustain.


I would think that just about the last thing Austria would want to do is to fork out a few $billion on procuring an aircraft with a high CPFH to replace an aircraft they have already paid for but use very little (according to the stories I have read) because it is too expensive to fly.

Ozair wrote:
mxaxai wrote:
I think a T-7 derivative could work pretty well, actually.

We don't know when the current sustainment contract for the Eurofighter ends and we also don't have a timeframe for when Boeing will make available a T-7 fighter derivative.


True on both counts IMO.

I seem to remember that T-7 deliveries to USAF should start 2023. If Boeing see a massive market for a fighter version, I presume they will hurry to develop it and plan increased production capacity. How long would that take if they have not already done most of the work? Given the 737MAX disaster on the civil side and the downturn in demand for the 777X and 787, I would think that they would be looking for as many orders as possible as soon as possible on the military side.

Ozair wrote:
How useful will a Mach 1.2 top speed fighter be for air policing?


More useful than a subsonic or a mach 2 aircraft you have to leave in the hangar some of the time because using it as you would like to is unaffordable. I guess you might be suggesting the FA-50 would be acceptable speed-wise. If the Austrian budget is really strapped for cash, would the T-7 be much cheaper to procure and operate than FA-50? If not FA-50 looks like a winner unless politics get involved and Gripen was selected for that reason.
 
Ozair
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Re: Replacement of Austrian Typhoons

Sun Jul 26, 2020 5:14 am

art wrote:
I seem to remember that T-7 deliveries to USAF should start 2023. If Boeing see a massive market for a fighter version, I presume they will hurry to develop it and plan increased production capacity. How long would that take if they have not already done most of the work? Given the 737MAX disaster on the civil side and the downturn in demand for the 777X and 787, I would think that they would be looking for as many orders as possible as soon as possible on the military side.

The question is who foots the bill for the modification and what modifications would be required to make the airframe competitive in an Austrian Air Policing role. I doubt Boeing will do all the mods from internal funding, they would expect any acquisition to mostly fund the development of the variant. Obviously needs a radar and associated cooling, pylons for missiles, other sensors such as RWS and maybe MAWS, chaff and flare buckets etc. Do they need to put the F414 in and modify the airframe to accommodate it for all the extra weight that making the aircraft into a light fighter will add and if so does it end up like Gripen E, more thrust but more weight that negates the thrust increase...

art wrote:
Ozair wrote:
How useful will a Mach 1.2 top speed fighter be for air policing?


More useful than a subsonic or a mach 2 aircraft you have to leave in the hangar some of the time because using it as you would like to is unaffordable. I guess you might be suggesting the FA-50 would be acceptable speed-wise. If the Austrian budget is really strapped for cash, would the T-7 be much cheaper to procure and operate than FA-50? If not FA-50 looks like a winner unless politics get involved and Gripen was selected for that reason.

Not sure the FA-50 is much better. It may be faster but probably would still suffer from small internal fuel load. It all comes back to the Gripen C evaluation by Switzerland where the Gripen C ran out of fuel before it could make the intercept. I expect Austria would have similar issues with a FA-50/T-7/Gripen C. If higher supersonic performance and bigger fuel load is sought then a used F-16 might be the better option and would be a cheaper option to acquire and potentially even sustain. There are also still European nations taking new F-16s. Alternatively, find a new company to sustain the T1 Eurofighters and soldier on...
 
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flyingturtle
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Re: Replacement of Austrian Typhoons

Sun Jul 26, 2020 9:24 am

In the past few days I read about the Austrian decisions whether to replace their Typhoons or not.

Since a very long time, Austria depends on it neutrality and its treaties to "defend" itself. For example, during the Cold War Austria just had Soviet safety guarantees, and the Austrian neutrality, after all, was not self-chosen - it was basically ordered by the Soviet Union. This is in partial contrast to Switzerland. While Austria welcomed the German occupation during WW2, Switzerland always prided itself on defending its neutrality, even when it comes at a huge cost. Though the Swiss neutrality is much older, it was, likewise, not self-chosen. (France demanded from Switzerland to be neutral, dating back to the 16th century.)

Austria also never invested a lot in weapons programmes. It will be politically really difficult to expend more than one billion Euros for any fighter replacement.
Reading accident reports is what calms me down
 
art
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Re: Replacement of Austrian Typhoons

Sun Jul 26, 2020 10:52 am

flyingturtle wrote:
In the past few days I read about the Austrian decisions whether to replace their Typhoons or not.

Since a very long time, Austria depends on it neutrality and its treaties to "defend" itself. For example, during the Cold War Austria just had Soviet safety guarantees, and the Austrian neutrality, after all, was not self-chosen - it was basically ordered by the Soviet Union. This is in partial contrast to Switzerland. While Austria welcomed the German occupation during WW2, Switzerland always prided itself on defending its neutrality, even when it comes at a huge cost. Though the Swiss neutrality is much older, it was, likewise, not self-chosen. (France demanded from Switzerland to be neutral, dating back to the 16th century.)


Interesting to hear the history. I always imagined that it was a post WWII treaty that limited Austrian air force capability.

flyingturtle wrote:
Austria also never invested a lot in weapons programmes. It will be politically really difficult to expend more than one billion Euros for any fighter replacement.


A squadron of Tejas Mk1 might be an idea - very short combat range on internal fuel but capable of mach 1.6 with few fancy built in systems, so very cheap. Stick a couple of external tanks on and it would have adequate range. Unfortunately the first 16 IOC spec aircraft for the Indian air force were delivered about 7 years late but the second batch of 16 FOC spec aircraft might only be about 5 years late and take only another year or so to deliver. I expect the assembly line will have then have free capacity for a time since I expect production of the more capable Mk1A scheduled to follow on will... not follow on (due to Mk1A failing to adhere to schedule, too). India could produce its first Tejas export order during the delay, so keeping the guys on the assembly line busy rather than sitting around drinking tea while waiting for something to assemble. Win-win for both parties, no?
 
texl1649
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Re: Replacement of Austrian Typhoons

Sun Jul 26, 2020 6:43 pm

Saving several billion to replace the Eurofighters (Tranche 1) is a steep hill to climb, for any type. Maybe the F-16 could do it, with perhaps a couple fewer frames. They don’t really need twin engines, so I guess it is plausible. Outside of that only perhaps the (older) Gripen could possibly fit the bill, as apparently there are produced frames sitting about.

While a combat variant of the T-7 is likely, I can’t see it being fully developed/engineered for this procurement.
 
art
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Re: Replacement of Austrian Typhoons

Mon Jul 27, 2020 5:50 am

texl1649 wrote:
Saving several billion to replace the Eurofighters (Tranche 1) is a steep hill to climb, for any type. Maybe the F-16 could do it, with perhaps a couple fewer frames. They don’t really need twin engines, so I guess it is plausible. Outside of that only perhaps the (older) Gripen could possibly fit the bill, as apparently there are produced frames sitting about.

While a combat variant of the T-7 is likely, I can’t see it being fully developed/engineered for this procurement.


Whether or not Indonesia could do a deal for the Eurofighters, those aircraft are clearly too expensive to operate as intended:

Austria bought the Typhoons in 2003 for €1.75 billion, but the government subsequently accused Airbus and EADS of fraud and deception concerning the true costs of the program and the aircraft's operating costs. Austria sought €184.4 million in damages, but a Viennese court dismissed the case in April of this year. Defense budget cuts have also forced the air force to cut flight hours for its pilots, and only 12 pilots were reportedly certified to fly the jets in 2014. This has led to reduced periods in which aircraft are available for air defense missions, a shortfall partially remedied by using some of the Saab 105s for air surveillance.


https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news ... s-typhoons

And according to this article there are 10 new Gripen C and 4 Gripen D 'white tails'.

https://theaviationgeekclub.com/swedish ... line-open/

I guess that Gripen C has sufficient range to cover most of Austria in QRA mode from the Zeltweg base and I guess would have no problems covering the whole country with a supersonic drop tank, so...

in Austria's position I would (a) negotiate a deal for the Gripen white tails (b) try to negotiate a deal with Indonesia for the Eurofighters. If a deal was agreed on the EF's, buy the Gripens and sell the Eurofighters. Not enough Gripens? Sweden should be agreeable to selling half a dozen used C aircraft.

Out of curiosity, anyone have any idea what a low mileage, basically configured tranche 1 Typhoon might be worth? And 15 with all support equipment and some spares?
 
art
Posts: 3576
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

Re: Replacement of Austrian Typhoons

Mon Jul 27, 2020 7:44 am

Just spotted the following in UK stock market news (source Sunday Telegraph newspaper)

Rolls-Royce is exploring an emergency sale of a division that makes parts for the Eurofighter Typhoon amid efforts to raise billions to see it through the pandemic. The engineer is in early talks to spin out ITP Aero to a private equity buyer, as it battles a collapse in fees it normally makes from selling and maintaining jet engines for airliners. City sources said buyout firms including KKR, Blackstone and Carlyle had held discussions about buying ITP Aero, which is based in Spain and builds parts of engines for jets, helicopters and ships. - Sunday Telegraph


I guess the reportedly high cost of Eurofighter spares may rise further if ITP Aero is sold on. No doubt Indonesia will take this into account in any offer it makes
 
mxaxai
Posts: 2059
Joined: Sat Jun 18, 2016 7:29 am

Re: Replacement of Austrian Typhoons

Mon Jul 27, 2020 9:26 am

art wrote:
Out of curiosity, anyone have any idea what a low mileage, basically configured tranche 1 Typhoon might be worth? And 15 with all support equipment and some spares?

Considering that (a) nobody except Indonesia has asked to buy Tranche 1 Eurofighters and (b) Austria is willing to replace them with F-16, they probably couldn't sell them for more than a used F-16. Using the Israel-Croatia deal of 12 jets for US$ 500M as reference, Austria could hope to get US$ 600-700M for their fleet. Maybe a billion if they find a very interested buyer, or maybe far less since there are only few potential customers.
 
Ozair
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Re: Replacement of Austrian Typhoons

Mon Jul 27, 2020 11:03 am

mxaxai wrote:
Considering that (a) nobody except Indonesia has asked to buy Tranche 1 Eurofighters and (b) Austria is willing to replace them with F-16, they probably couldn't sell them for more than a used F-16. Using the Israel-Croatia deal of 12 jets for US$ 500M as reference, Austria could hope to get US$ 600-700M for their fleet. Maybe a billion if they find a very interested buyer, or maybe far less since there are only few potential customers.

Even Indonesia would still have some hefty costs taking on the T1 Eurofighters. Any new aircraft introduced into service, whether it had a previous operator or not, comes with some pretty standard fixed costs and Indonesia isn't going to find support from anyone other than current operators and/or Airbus.

art wrote:
I guess that Gripen C has sufficient range to cover most of Austria in QRA mode from the Zeltweg base and I guess would have no problems covering the whole country with a supersonic drop tank, so...

We know already the Gripen would struggle. If it couldn't fulfil the Swiss interception mission then I can't see it being any better for Austria.

art wrote:
Out of curiosity, anyone have any idea what a low mileage, basically configured tranche 1 Typhoon might be worth? And 15 with all support equipment and some spares?

Its more about what someone would be wiling to pay. None of the four partners have been able to offload their T1s. Italy offered T1s to Bulgaria but that wasn't successful, F-16Vs were chosen instead. While some of that acquisition was probably politically motivated I expect that cost was also a factor.
 
mxaxai
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Re: Replacement of Austrian Typhoons

Mon Jul 27, 2020 11:15 am

Ozair wrote:
Obviously needs a radar and associated cooling, pylons for missiles, other sensors such as RWS and maybe MAWS, chaff and flare buckets etc. Do they need to put the F414 in and modify the airframe to accommodate it for all the extra weight that making the aircraft into a light fighter will add and if so does it end up like Gripen E, more thrust but more weight that negates the thrust increase...

Northrop managed to develop the M1.3 capable T-38 into the M1.6 capable F-5. Even so, the T-7 appears to feature good acceleration and a high thrust-to-weight ratio so I suspect some aerodynamic refinement should yield significant improvements in speed. You can also get rid of the second seat. Remember that the Gripen C is a much heavier aircraft than the T-7 (OEW 6,800 kg vs 5,500 kg) and can comfortably reach Mach 2 with the F404.

Now for who pays the bill, I suspect that either Boeing takes a risk or the USA or Sweden pay for the development. None of the small countries that might be interested could shoulder the cost on their own but IMHO it would be quite competitive for current F-5, F-16 or Gripen operators.
 
art
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Re: Replacement of Austrian Typhoons

Mon Jul 27, 2020 1:33 pm

mxaxai wrote:
Northrop managed to develop the M1.3 capable T-38 into the M1.6 capable F-5. Even so, the T-7 appears to feature good acceleration and a high thrust-to-weight ratio so I suspect some aerodynamic refinement should yield significant improvements in speed. You can also get rid of the second seat. Remember that the Gripen C is a much heavier aircraft than the T-7 (OEW 6,800 kg vs 5,500 kg) and can comfortably reach Mach 2 with the F404.

Now for who pays the bill, I suspect that either Boeing takes a risk or the USA or Sweden pay for the development. None of the small countries that might be interested could shoulder the cost on their own but IMHO it would be quite competitive for current F-5, F-16 or Gripen operators.


If I were SAAB and could negotiate a reasonablr royalty deal on light fighter sales, I think I would jump at it. The only competition I could see would possibly be the FA-50 from South Korea. For small air forces a mix of T-7 and T-7 fighters would be a great low cost package, wouldn't it?
 
Ozair
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Re: Replacement of Austrian Typhoons

Mon Jul 27, 2020 10:09 pm

mxaxai wrote:
Northrop managed to develop the M1.3 capable T-38 into the M1.6 capable F-5. Even so, the T-7 appears to feature good acceleration and a high thrust-to-weight ratio so I suspect some aerodynamic refinement should yield significant improvements in speed.

Well the T-38 became the F-5A before it became the far more successful, capable and appreciated F-5E. The E is what made a name for the F-5 and I expect outside of specific BVR performance against a high end threat the F-5 is a better and cheaper aircraft to run intercepts/air policing than a Gripen or T-7.

mxaxai wrote:
You can also get rid of the second seat. Remember that the Gripen C is a much heavier aircraft than the T-7 (OEW 6,800 kg vs 5,500 kg) and can comfortably reach Mach 2 with the F404.

No combat configured Gripen has ever flown Mach 2 let alone comfortably getting to that speed. Just review the F-16 Mach 2 thread to see how claimed top speeds translate to speeds with real configurations and actual day to day operations.

mxaxai wrote:
Now for who pays the bill, I suspect that either Boeing takes a risk or the USA or Sweden pay for the development. None of the small countries that might be interested could shoulder the cost on their own but IMHO it would be quite competitive for current F-5, F-16 or Gripen operators.

Sweden has no cash to fund this and I don’t think Boeing is interested. The market for light fighters is astonishingly small, already congested and I don’t see how outside of the USAF order they could justify spending likely more than US$ 2 billion to develop and test this variant. Saab tried that already with the Gripen which has had an unsuccessful export career. If Boeing did spend the minimum US$2 billion on the dev and test of the aircraft and made perhaps US$10 million profit on every aircraft they would need to sell 200 before they broke even. There aren't 200 combined FA-50/Hawk 200/M-346FA in service.

I’ll now speak heresy for the board but I see no value or future for the light fighter market. The FA-50, M-346 and Hawk 200s have all been reasonably unsuccessful in replacing the F-5s and MiG-21s of the world as light fighters. When you put the cost of the aircraft and the capabilities they offer up against medium fighters you see why Air Forces spend that little bit more to get a lot more capability or they soldier on with the F-5 etc as the cost of even the new light fighters is unsustainable.

Far more likely that light fighter roles will be subsumed by advancing UCAVs which would be cheaper to acquire and sustain, more flexible in their deployment and easier to train aircrew on.
 
texl1649
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Re: Replacement of Austrian Typhoons

Mon Jul 27, 2020 11:19 pm

Well, darn, I really want to disagree with Ozair but I can’t do it, frankly. (Aside; Least likely of all parties to throw hundreds of millions at a T-7 combat derivative this year is Boeing).

I think if anyone can today build/compete/sell a cheap light fighter, it’s probably Saab, and in fact they have, including many white tales. But it hasn’t been commercially successful for them, unfortunately.

Moving forward I do see a mix of manned platforms (a la small corporate jet size stuff) and UCAV’s replacing this role. The interesting question is what does Austria here do as the platforms aren’t quite mature right now for such a replacement role?
 
744SPX
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Re: Replacement of Austrian Typhoons

Tue Jul 28, 2020 3:03 am

I'm still baffled by the notion of Austria getting rid of the Eurofighters. Anything else would be a downgrade, at least in terms of the air defense role. Then again if its an issue of affordability, they may have to downgrade.
 
CX747
Posts: 6289
Joined: Tue May 18, 1999 2:54 am

Re: Replacement of Austrian Typhoons

Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:43 pm

Used F-16s, new F-16s, new F/A-18 Super Hornets, new F-15EXs.

The F-16 overall should cover everything they need (unless they want 2 engines). There is a whole host of used models Austria could pick up from the US, Israel, etc. Update, upgrade and live off the USAF's future program for the jet. You could also lock in with other Block 70 buyers and get a brand new, turn key solution.

Brand new F/A-18 Super Hornets. USN is buying them, upgrading them and fully invested in the model for years. Germany will have 45 jets based in the continent that one could partner with for upgrades or maintenance. You get brand new, twin engined fighters that can do air to air and air to ground with ease.

Brand new F-15EX. Eat off the USAF contract, upgrades, the whole nine yards. Brand spankin new, with all the latest bells and whistles, plus it is an absolute Air to Air or Air to Ground beast. There are several countries including the US, Saudi and Qatar that are all getting new F-15s, so over the life of the program you will have different upgrade choices.

I think Austria should very much be looking at F-16s. They perform, are easy to maintain, have a ton of upgrade programs and have been earning their keep in combat since entering the market. Going used or new, one can't go wrong.
"History does not long entrust the care of freedom to the weak or timid." D. Eisenhower
 
CX747
Posts: 6289
Joined: Tue May 18, 1999 2:54 am

Re: Replacement of Austrian Typhoons

Fri Jul 31, 2020 8:07 pm

texl1649 wrote:
Well, darn, I really want to disagree with Ozair but I can’t do it, frankly. (Aside; Least likely of all parties to throw hundreds of millions at a T-7 combat derivative this year is Boeing).

I think if anyone can today build/compete/sell a cheap light fighter, it’s probably Saab, and in fact they have, including many white tales. But it hasn’t been commercially successful for them, unfortunately.

Moving forward I do see a mix of manned platforms (a la small corporate jet size stuff) and UCAV’s replacing this role. The interesting question is what does Austria here do as the platforms aren’t quite mature right now for such a replacement role?


I don't think it is an issue of not being able to build the "right" aircraft. I think the market really doesn't exist anymore. Why waste money on a "light" fighter when you can get used F-16s? The market has moved on and grown. The best option truly is the T-7 as Boeing and the USAF standing behind it, plus you are looking at a production run of 350 jets as it stands right now.
"History does not long entrust the care of freedom to the weak or timid." D. Eisenhower

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