India a possible customer? India has 12 Hercs and is interested in expanding its military transport/lift by another 6. Given the S-400 purchase, there is a possibility of future US sanctions. For security of supply, might India buy some C-390's? The article linked below says that Embraer has pitched the C-390 to IAF.

http://idrw.org/embraer-offers-c-390-mi ... ore-281065

Flying-Tiger wrote:

The Brazilian Air Force has reduced its order for the KC-390 from 28 frames to only 15.

https://www.reuters.com/article/embraer-brazil-govt-idUSL1N2S31XU

Changed to 22, not to big a reduction.

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerosp ... 022-02-10/

art wrote:

India a possible customer? India has 12 Hercs and is interested in expanding its military transport/lift by another 6. Given the S-400 purchase, there is a possibility of future US sanctions. For security of supply, might India buy some C-390's? The article linked below says that Embraer has pitched the C-390 to IAF.

http://idrw.org/embraer-offers-c-390-mi ... ore-281065

Wouldn't KC-390 be affected by US sanctions too? I have a hard time to believe a modern aircraft like KC-390 can exist without a lot of ITAR submitted equipments.

Grizzly410 wrote:

art wrote:

India a possible customer? India has 12 Hercs and is interested in expanding its military transport/lift by another 6. Given the S-400 purchase, there is a possibility of future US sanctions. For security of supply, might India buy some C-390's? The article linked below says that Embraer has pitched the C-390 to IAF.

http://idrw.org/embraer-offers-c-390-mi ... ore-281065

Wouldn't KC-390 be affected by US sanctions too? I have a hard time to believe a modern aircraft like KC-390 can exist without a lot of ITAR submitted equipments.

I guess you are right. IIRC even Rafale had US content at one time, if it does not still have it.

South Korea is looking to buy airlifters. Hercules, A400M and KC-390 are expected to be offered. Perhaps Embraer could get lucky on this one.

https://www.janes.com/defence-news/defe ... pabilities

art wrote:

South Korea is looking to buy airlifters. Hercules, A400M and KC-390 are expected to be offered. Perhaps Embraer could get lucky on this one.

https://www.janes.com/defence-news/defe ... pabilities

I doubt it will happen, but would love to see the ROKAF pickup the C-2.

Grizzly410 wrote:

art wrote:

India a possible customer? India has 12 Hercs and is interested in expanding its military transport/lift by another 6. Given the S-400 purchase, there is a possibility of future US sanctions. For security of supply, might India buy some C-390's? The article linked below says that Embraer has pitched the C-390 to IAF.

http://idrw.org/embraer-offers-c-390-mi ... ore-281065

Wouldn't KC-390 be affected by US sanctions too? I have a hard time to believe a modern aircraft like KC-390 can exist without a lot of ITAR submitted equipments.

Do you really think that President Biden can impose sanctions on Brazil and India and that there would be no adverse consequences for American interests?

Nean1 wrote:

Grizzly410 wrote:

art wrote:

India a possible customer? India has 12 Hercs and is interested in expanding its military transport/lift by another 6. Given the S-400 purchase, there is a possibility of future US sanctions. For security of supply, might India buy some C-390's? The article linked below says that Embraer has pitched the C-390 to IAF.

http://idrw.org/embraer-offers-c-390-mi ... ore-281065

Wouldn't KC-390 be affected by US sanctions too? I have a hard time to believe a modern aircraft like KC-390 can exist without a lot of ITAR submitted equipments.

Do you really think that President Biden can impose sanctions on Brazil and India and that there would be no adverse consequences for American interests?

Why would there be a need for US to sanction Brazil?
If there are (for whatever reason) US sanctions against destination country, US technology can't be sold there, period. Correct?
So if India is sanctioned over (whatever), that's it, no?

ITAR regulations only covers arms coming and going out if the US. Unless the C-390 have components that goes thu he US. ITAR regulations do not apply.

If India runs afoul of the US to a point where sanctions gets involved, then there'll be lots more issues than just the C-390.

All AH-64 fuselages are currently being made in India for example.

bt

Nean1 wrote:

Grizzly410 wrote:

art wrote:

India a possible customer? India has 12 Hercs and is interested in expanding its military transport/lift by another 6. Given the S-400 purchase, there is a possibility of future US sanctions. For security of supply, might India buy some C-390's? The article linked below says that Embraer has pitched the C-390 to IAF.

http://idrw.org/embraer-offers-c-390-mi ... ore-281065

Wouldn't KC-390 be affected by US sanctions too? I have a hard time to believe a modern aircraft like KC-390 can exist without a lot of ITAR submitted equipments.

Do you really think that President Biden can impose sanctions on Brazil and India and that there would be no adverse consequences for American interests?

Surely you're answering to art.

But for what it worths, when US decides to restrict exports of military content to a given country, the larger assembly exporter country can't complain much. If its not happy it just have to develop the technology he buys from US....
Ex. Airbus DS have a C-295 ready and waiting for delivery for quite some time now (Mali) because of US sanctions. A rather simple transport version but it doesn't seem possible to build a C-295 without protected US content. Surely in the background Airbus is lobbying EU to push US remove sanctions or aleviate enough to transfer the aircraft, but you don't and will not hear vocal complains, let alone threatening "adverse consequence".

It's notorious Airbus is trying to reduce the dependency on US content for some time now yet cannot achieve it even for a small bird like C-295, that's why I think that in case of US sanctions against any potential military transport aircraft customer would affect KC-390 as much as any other competitor.

bikerthai wrote:

ITAR regulations only covers arms coming and going out if the US. Unless the C-390 have components that goes thu he US. ITAR regulations do not apply.

If India runs afoul of the US to a point where sanctions gets involved, then there'll be lots more issues than just the C-390.

All AH-64 fuselages are currently being made in India for example.

bt

ITAR covers arms and components as well as license-built parts and technical data throughout the product's entire lifetime. As long as anything in the product originated from the US (and is subject to ITAR), you can't sell it without approval by the US gov. Well, at least not legally ...

mxaxai wrote:

bikerthai wrote:

ITAR regulations only covers arms coming and going out if the US. Unless the C-390 have components that goes thu he US. ITAR regulations do not apply.

If India runs afoul of the US to a point where sanctions gets involved, then there'll be lots more issues than just the C-390.

All AH-64 fuselages are currently being made in India for example.

bt

ITAR covers arms and components as well as license-built parts and technical data throughout the product's entire lifetime. As long as anything in the product originated from the US (and is subject to ITAR), you can't sell it without approval by the US gov. Well, at least not legally ...

The Democratic Party has done an excellent job of bringing Russia and Saudi Arabia closer to China. Let's see if they have the same success with Brazil and India.

Nean1 wrote:

The Democratic Party has done an excellent job of bringing Russia and Saudi Arabia closer to China. Let's see if they have the same success with Brazil and India.

India will not get closer to China, but you're right that DC makes it harder, not easier, for New Delhi to make the right choices. Quite silly, really...

angad84 wrote:

India will not get closer to China, but you're right that DC makes it harder, not easier, for New Delhi to make the right choices. Quite silly, really...

US political party in power should not drive India away.

Both political party have prominent politicians with India ties.

Who else India will be driven to?

Major arms sales to India began with Bush and accelerated thu the Obama presidency and even survived the Trump administration.

My sense is road block to US arms sales to India has more to do with cost and the start and stop nature of the India procurement process.

bt

bikerthai wrote:

angad84 wrote:

India will not get closer to China, but you're right that DC makes it harder, not easier, for New Delhi to make the right choices. Quite silly, really...

US political party in power should not drive India away.

Both political party have prominent politicians with India ties.

Who else India will be driven to?

Major arms sales to India began with Bush and accelerated thru the Obama presidency and even survived the Trump administration.

My sense is road block to US arms sales to India has more to do with cost and the start and stop nature of the India procurement process.

bt

1. Incorrect -- the present Indian admin has displayed an overt preference for the US right/GOP.

2. Irrelevant if it doesn't convert on ground -- which it hasn't. Inertia doesn't count. Plus, progressives almost universally seem to have an axe to grind with India.

3. Russia! That's the whole point of this segue!

4. "Survived" Trump is generous, Trump was very good to India.

5. Everyone and their mum is content to come and roll the dice with India's (admittedly bonkers) defence procurement process. If that is a roadblock for the US, it is for the US to figure out.


Anyway, it seems folks on the hill share my broad view that the ball is more in the US court, because they've announced a $500 MM FMF package to begin weaning India away from Russia.

angad84 wrote:

the present Indian admin has displayed an overt preference for the US right/GOP.

I have no basis on the India point of view. My point is even the US democratic party has some ties to India. The current Vice Pres, for example.

angad84 wrote:

Plus, progressives almost universally seem to have an axe to grind with India.

"Progressives" is just one wing of the Democratic party. Just like anti immigrants and anti anything foreign is a one wing of the Republican Party.

angad84 wrote:

If that is a roadblock for the US, it is for the US to figure out.

Just need a large dose of patience.

bt

India interested in KC-390?

http://idrw.org/page/2/

art wrote:

India interested in KC-390?

http://idrw.org/page/2/

India was taken for a ride by russians with Il-112.
First, a prototype burns and crashes.
Then, they realize it was stuck in development hell forever.
With this war raging now, buying russian becomes silly.

Outside of C-130 and KC-390, do they really have much to choose from?
Antonov is too busy digging itself from ruins, so An-178 is not really on the table for now.

Netherlands selects KC-390 as its Hercules replacement!

https://aviationweek.com/defense-space/ ... eplacement
https://www.aviacionline.com/2022/06/em ... transport/

UPlog wrote:

Netherlands selects KC-390 as its Hercules replacement!

https://aviationweek.com/defense-space/ ... eplacement
https://www.aviacionline.com/2022/06/em ... transport/

Who saw that coming? most expected, myself included, they would go for the C-130J.
Will be interesting to see them in operation in Northern Europe with NATO partners.

UPlog wrote:

Netherlands selects KC-390 as its Hercules replacement!

https://aviationweek.com/defense-space/ ... eplacement
https://www.aviacionline.com/2022/06/em ... transport/

Good for Embraer! I hope India will join the list of customers. India has a requirement for quite a few airlifters of this class IIRC.

https://idrw.org/embraer-eyes-vacuum-le ... a-program/

nice deal for
Embraer!

GDB wrote:

Who saw that coming? most expected, myself included, they would go for the C-130J.

Honestly? When Fokker announced they where going to cooperate with Embraer, specifically mentioning this included the military projects, I figured the KC-390 had become the front runner.

petertenthije wrote:

GDB wrote:

Who saw that coming? most expected, myself included, they would go for the C-130J.

Honestly? When Fokker announced they where going to cooperate with Embraer, specifically mentioning this included the military projects, I figured the KC-390 had become the front runner.

That’s my fault not being aware of Fokker’s involvement, for me, they are, or were, about small airliners, I know they did other things like with the F-16.
It did occur that KLM have experience with Embraer, just saw that in the context of ‘shame Fokker never got to build the new generation of KLM regionals.

Excellent news for an excellent aircraft.

I think if most C-130 operators purchased the KC-390 they would prefer it for 99% of operations.

RJMAZ wrote:

Excellent news for an excellent aircraft.

I think if most C-130 operators purchased the KC-390 they would prefer it for 99% of operations.

The KC-390 is a great plane, I think it’s primary challenge is hitting a production/order rate to achieve some economies of scale/pricing advantages vs. the Herc.

A rational good choice it seems. They will also significantly upped available budgetted hours (and all related costs) per year.

It will it hopefully add extra refuel capability, although the "C" type announcement suggest the capability is not in, at this moment.

Anyway a usefull addition to the joint european transport capability that is becoming A400M based.

It will be way better able to use regular European airways than the lower slower C130s.

Total sales now ...

Brazil 22
Hungary 2
Portugul 5
Netherlands 5
Total 34

Even if the KC390 is better for my mission, I'd be SUPER reluctant to buy a plane that only has 34 orders.

GDB wrote:

UPlog wrote:

Netherlands selects KC-390 as its Hercules replacement!

https://aviationweek.com/defense-space/ ... eplacement
https://www.aviacionline.com/2022/06/em ... transport/

Who saw that coming? most expected, myself included, they would go for the C-130J.
Will be interesting to see them in operation in Northern Europe with NATO partners.

I think it´s actually a pretty strange choice given that the Netherlands operates a good deal of its equipment with partner nations nowadays (tank brigade with Germany, MRTT as multinational operation) and they are now the only nation in that corner of Europe to not operate the A400M. All direct neightbours - Luxemburg, Belgium, France, Germany and UK are operators. The Netherlands are the odd one out here.

Flying-Tiger wrote:

GDB wrote:

UPlog wrote:

Netherlands selects KC-390 as its Hercules replacement!

https://aviationweek.com/defense-space/ ... eplacement
https://www.aviacionline.com/2022/06/em ... transport/

Who saw that coming? most expected, myself included, they would go for the C-130J.
Will be interesting to see them in operation in Northern Europe with NATO partners.

I think it´s actually a pretty strange choice given that the Netherlands operates a good deal of its equipment with partner nations nowadays (tank brigade with Germany, MRTT as multinational operation) and they are now the only nation in that corner of Europe to not operate the A400M. All direct neightbours - Luxemburg, Belgium, France, Germany and UK are operators. The Netherlands are the odd one out here.

The Netherlands have contracts ($$) with the Belgiums who are close by, it was organized a long time ago. The C390 will be much more efficient moving around people and 10-20t loads within western Europe than the far more capable (& expensive) A400M.. It seems a useful addition and I guess more will follow. I guess for Embraer to convert a Western European Airforce is a breakthrough. The good old C130 has become outdated in terms of loads, maintenance and capability, for Europe.


Leeham

Looking back Embraer successfully stepped into the hole left open when Fokker went belly up. Since then cooperation has grown, the Dutch also have been involved in development of C390 R&D for a long time, but this is unrelated to this deal. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m-YXCC_9hEg

Between Portugal, Czech, Hungary and the Netherlands I’d say Embraer is on a good roll in Europe right now. They’ve committed significant resources to a Polish order/campaign I believe as well I believe, and I’m not sure if Sweden ever made a decision.

Really, the A400M bid might not have been very aggressive, either (nor the C-130 one), as I don’t think Airbus really wants that program to keep going much longer. It’s also a whole different level of cost, especially for a small operator.

Sweden can be ruled out as a potential KC-390 customer. They recently decided to buy second-hand C-130Js from Italy to replace their C-130Hs :

https://defbrief.com/2022/06/12/sweden- ... irlifters/

kitplane01 wrote:

Hungary 2
Portugul 5
Netherlands 5

This is what happens when there are local jobs in it. Countries in EU end up with a lot of different types of planes, some imported from outside the EU, and there is no coordination or overall plan, as all act in their own short-term interest. It's not different here in Denmark, regrettably.

Schroinx wrote:

kitplane01 wrote:

Hungary 2
Portugul 5
Netherlands 5

This is what happens when there are local jobs in it. Countries in EU end up with a lot of different types of planes, some imported from outside the EU, and there is no coordination or overall plan, as all act in their own short-term interest. It's not different here in Denmark, regrettably.

What would you like? Hungary is not going to trade 2 C-390s for two thirds of a A400s. They could have bought C-130s or C-390s. That's the full list of choices.

As for making a "european" C-130 sized airframe ... Europe did exactly right for not making a plane that doesn't sell. Embraer has a very nice plane and just cannot sell enough to be viable. Not even close!

kitplane01 wrote:

Schroinx wrote:

kitplane01 wrote:

Hungary 2
Portugul 5
Netherlands 5

This is what happens when there are local jobs in it. Countries in EU end up with a lot of different types of planes, some imported from outside the EU, and there is no coordination or overall plan, as all act in their own short-term interest. It's not different here in Denmark, regrettably.

What would you like? Hungary is not going to trade 2 C-390s for two thirds of a A400s. They could have bought C-130s or C-390s. That's the full list of choices.

As for making a "european" C-130 sized airframe ... Europe did exactly right for not making a plane that doesn't sell. Embraer has a very nice plane and just cannot sell enough to be viable. Not even close!

Portugul 5
Netherlands 5

Could they have bought say 10 C-295s and then shared a 1 A400M or something like that?

Schroinx wrote:

Could they have bought say 10 C-295s and then shared a 1 A400M or something like that?

If the Netherlands need something bigger, then they are part of the NATO C-17, NATO MRTT and the pan-european EATC fleets. No need to buy a single A400.

Schroinx wrote:

kitplane01 wrote:

Hungary 2
Portugul 5
Netherlands 5

This is what happens when there are local jobs in it. Countries in EU end up with a lot of different types of planes, some imported from outside the EU, and there is no coordination or overall plan, as all act in their own short-term interest. It's not different here in Denmark, regrettably.

Well the Dutch involvement in this aircraft is not large, you can say Portugal with rather greater involvement is in this category but could it be that it is, for both of them, also the best aircraft for the job they want them to do?
Seems a good aircraft, more capable than the obvious alternative.

aumaverick wrote:

art wrote:

South Korea is looking to buy airlifters. Hercules, A400M and KC-390 are expected to be offered. Perhaps Embraer could get lucky on this one.

https://www.janes.com/defence-news/defe ... pabilities

I doubt it will happen, but would love to see the ROKAF pickup the C-2.

SK has a dozen C-130H and C-130K and 4 C-130J (via Wiki). Since A400M and C-2 are much larger, I would think the prime candidates are C-130J and C-390 unless the requirement has altered.

art wrote:

aumaverick wrote:

art wrote:

South Korea is looking to buy airlifters. Hercules, A400M and KC-390 are expected to be offered. Perhaps Embraer could get lucky on this one.

https://www.janes.com/defence-news/defe ... pabilities

I doubt it will happen, but would love to see the ROKAF pickup the C-2.

SK has a dozen C-130H and C-130K and 4 C-130J (via Wiki). Since A400M and C-2 are much larger, I would think the prime candidates are C-130J and C-390 unless the requirement has altered.

Previous statements by various South Korean officials seem to indicate the South Koreans are looking towards a 4 engined option:

https://www.janes.com/defence-news/air- ... rt-project

However, a Korea Aerospace Industries (KAI) source told Janes that the required operational capability (ROC) of the Republic of Korea Air Force (RoKAF) limits participation in the project to aircraft with four engines.

“Embraer‘s KC390 does not fit the ROC of the RoKAF, so it is difficult to participate in the project. As per the ROC, [aircraft] must be equipped with four turboprop engines. [This means] the A400M and C-130J,” said the source.

Further requirements indicate that said winner also has to form a consortium with South Korea's domestic defence industry for joint production or offset manufacturing, which pretty much means either KAI or Korean Air Aerospace cooperation; Airbus and Lockheed Martin does have extensive experience and ties to both.

ThePointblank wrote:

art wrote:

SK has a dozen C-130H and C-130K and 4 C-130J (via Wiki). Since A400M and C-2 are much larger, I would think the prime candidates are C-130J and C-390 unless the requirement has altered.

Previous statements by various South Korean officials seem to indicate the South Koreans are looking towards a 4 engined option:

https://www.janes.com/defence-news/air- ... rt-project

However, a Korea Aerospace Industries (KAI) source told Janes that the required operational capability (ROC) of the Republic of Korea Air Force (RoKAF) limits participation in the project to aircraft with four engines.

“Embraer‘s KC390 does not fit the ROC of the RoKAF, so it is difficult to participate in the project. As per the ROC, [aircraft] must be equipped with four turboprop engines. [This means] the A400M and C-130J,” said the source.

A bit confusing. From Janes:

DAPA told Janes that the Lockheed-Martin C-130J-30 Super Hercules, Airbus A400M Atlas, and the twin-engined Embraer C-390 Millennium “are expected to participate in this project”.

However, a Korea Aerospace Industries (KAI) source told Janes that the required operational capability (ROC) of the Republic of Korea Air Force (RoKAF) limits participation in the project to aircraft with four engines.

The procurement agency says that Embraer “are expected to participate in this project”. A source from KAI (with no say in the matter, I presume) says the requirement is for four engines.

Could it be that C-390 does not qualify but DAPA wants to use Embraer to put pressure on LM to lower its offer price?

Could it alternatively be the case that KAI would look to build a wing for a quad variant C-390 derivative using locally built/license built turbofans in such a size?

texl1649 wrote:

Could it alternatively be the case that KAI would look to build a wing for a quad variant C-390 derivative using locally built/license built turbofans in such a size?

That sounds incredibly complex, expensive, and negates the efficiencies of having the current configuration with two engines. Besides accommodating two more engines, what would a new wing bring to the table? Why the need for 4 engines? Does KAI or SK even build any turbofans domestically?

I don't think that four turbofans meets the "must have four turboprop engines" requirement either...

aumaverick wrote:

texl1649 wrote:

Could it alternatively be the case that KAI would look to build a wing for a quad variant C-390 derivative using locally built/license built turbofans in such a size?

That sounds incredibly complex, expensive, and negates the efficiencies of having the current configuration with two engines. Besides accommodating two more engines, what would a new wing bring to the table? Why the need for 4 engines? Does KAI or SK even build any turbofans domestically?

Hanwha Aerospace is a major parts manufacturer for Pratt, GE and Rolls Royce, and a licensee to build and overhaul a variety of jet engines for the South Korean military. They are a Risk and Revenue Sharing partner with Pratt for the GTF engine program, so they have experience building jet engines.

But no, it appears the South Koreans want a turboprop aircraft, so it's going to be either the Airbus A400M or the Lockheed C-130J-30.

And now Europe is going on a tender for a medium-sized airlifter, which seems to emulate the C-130/KC-390 specs. Leading nations are France, Germany and... Sweden (which partners with Embraer on the Grippen NG fighter jet for the Brazilian Air Force, but as not chosen the KC-390 to replace its C-130H and now could even develop a competing airplane)

I wonder whether Embraer can pitch their plane in this with Netherlands/Portugal/Czech/other European countries contents and local production/assembly and have a chance to win it ?....

Transcript and link below:

"The European Commission has launched a call for tenders to study the feasibility of “the possible development of a future tactical transport aircraft”.

"European transport aircraft were recently involved in several critical operations. These included the COVID-19 relief effort and the evacuation out of Afghanistan. “Beyond their pure military role, tactical transport aircraft are also key assets for a better civil defence/protection and EU-internal needs, with critical contribution to disaster relief, search-and-rescue and sanitary crises response,” the European Defence Fund document explains.

The Future Mid-size Tactical Cargo (FMTC) program aims to replace the aging tactical aircraft currently in operation among European air forces, including the C-130 Hercules, the CASA C295, or the recently retired Transall C-160. It involves France, which will operate as the coordinator country, Germany and Sweden.

The proposed aircraft will fulfil the need for a smaller alternative to the Airbus A400M Atlas in order to operate on narrow and short unprepared strips.

“Besides the A400M, which is on the high-performance side of the capacity, the initial conception of the majority of currently operating tactical aircraft [...] is now 40 years old, and there is a need for a new medium tactical European aircraft, lighter than the A400M that could provide a complementary capacity for tactical transport,” the document reads.

The feasibility study will have to identify the needs for transport aircraft in Europe by 2050, and potential development opportunities among member states of the European Defence Fund and their partners. The tender will end on November 24, 2022. "

https://www.aerotime.aero/articles/3149 ... fter-study

docmtl

docmtl wrote:

And now Europe is going on a tender for a medium-sized airlifter, which seems to emulate the C-130/KC-390 specs. Leading nations are France, Germany and... Sweden (which partners with Embraer on the Grippen NG fighter jet for the Brazilian Air Force, but as not chosen the KC-390 to replace its C-130H and now could even develop a competing airplane)

What is the point of inventing a wheel similar to the one that has recently been invented in Brazil? Can't the Europeans come up with a more astute investment or would this be another political project resulting in a more expensive version of the KC-390? A400M has not been successful (26 exports to non-partner countries) . Why take the risk of repeating this exercise in failure? I forget how many billions of euros Airbus has lost on the A400M.

I hope this idea is scrapped ASAP.

The Italian Air Force has a requirement to replace the C-130J.
They have already placed a few on the used market.
But so far no indication of when an order will be placed or what kind of platform are they looking for.
The KC390 is of the right size if one looks for a direct C-130 replacement. But they might decide to go bigger with the A400M (that would
ironic, since the programm was originally lead by Italy before it became and Airbus Spain project and Italy withdrew from it altogether).
A wild card would the Japanese C-2, which is offered for export but Japanese models are hardly ever sold abroad.

steman wrote:

The Italian Air Force has a requirement to replace the C-130J.
They have already placed a few on the used market.
But so far no indication of when an order will be placed or what kind of platform are they looking for.
The KC390 is of the right size if one looks for a direct C-130 replacement. But they might decide to go bigger with the A400M (that would
ironic, since the programm was originally lead by Italy before it became and Airbus Spain project and Italy withdrew from it altogether).
A wild card would the Japanese C-2, which is offered for export but Japanese models are hardly ever sold abroad.

If they want something with the lift capacity of A400M, great, buy it. Or perhaps C-2... why not consider it? OK, all the manuals are probably in Japanese...

If they want an economical C-130 replacement, there is one staring them in the face.

Italy saved a fortune by not investing in the A400M. Development cost proved to be far higher than anticipated and I recall that at one point Airbus threatened to back out of the project, forcing the partners to raise their investment still more (unless they wanted to lose all the money they had already pumped into the project).

There are, to my knowledge, four paths:

1) Buy the existing C-130 model with its latest upgrades.
2) Buy the KC-390
3) Buy the C-2 at a likely very high cost
4) Develop their own platform. To reduce costs, they could do something akin to the C-27J Spartan but patterned on the A400. So, a scaled down airlifter based on two of the A400 powerplants for commonality with a common cockpit layout to the A400 to make cross-training easier. That gets you down into the lower end of C-130/ KC-390 capabilities. If they share as much as possible with the A-400, then maybe they can keep the cost from spiraling out of control, but, if they make less than 80 units, they will never break even with just buying products that already exist on the market.

However, keep in mind, the recent conflict in europe, covid supply line disruptions, and ever souring relations with China are pushing more and more countries and blocks towards in-sourcing their products. That could be a major driver in this decision making process.