estorilm
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Re: Sukhoi SU-57

Wed Jul 18, 2018 2:41 pm

Slug71 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
Slug71 wrote:

Russia only planned to build an initial 12 and left the door open to more. Possibly up to 48 IIRC. But there was no firm plans to go beyond the initial 12 as yet.


Are you telling me that the Russians planned to build only 12 and developed an aircraft for that? You build a fighter with the prospects of at least 200-400 a/c or 500 or 1.000, not 12, that is plain ridiculous. Far too expensive to do it like this. No there is something seriously wrong here and it aint the official Russian propaganda.


Russia significantly cut their order several times, down to just 12. Then only 12 were purchased. Beyond that there has been no indication that they WOULD buy more, other than what they "envisioned". I've always thought that it would be dependent on the India deal materializing.

Russia is also facing additional sanctions which is going to pinch the wallet. I don't think the program is over though.
I think the project is just paused for now while the study extensive design changes. Too big for the "update as you go" approach they seem to have, and likely also due to data analysis. Or no responsibility to please a "partner".
Too many variables. I don't question their ability though.

I wouldn't be too surprised to see a heavily updated version roll out in a few years. Possibly even two versions. Lowering(/enlarging) the weapons bay level with the bottom of the engines, would significantly increase the volume of the weapons bay. Good bay for a fighter bomber/strike fighter.
Eventually the Su-34 will need replacing too.

You're not seeing clearly my friend.

Russia has 12 or so flying prototypes that were NEVER meant to be combat ready. If you do some research, you'll see that the initial procurement for the aircraft was estimated at over 150, plus more for India. That number was steadily reduced till (for some bizarre and pointless reason) they decided to order 12.

FWIW they've subsequently said that it "doesn't make sense to develop the aircraft at this time" - implying that there will never be 12 aircraft delivered, which is fairly obvious as it would be TOTALLY pointless to spend the absurd amount of money required to finalize the weapons systems, avionics, engines, and flight testing phases for a dozen aircraft.

That's like saying the US spent hundreds of millions of dollars on the JSF program early on, just to see their 13 initial prototypes get into the air. Then they were going to re-evaluate and see if anyone really wanted the thing. :lol:

There's NO other way to spin these developments (or what many have been saying about the PAK-FA program from the beginning) - the entire program was massively over-ambitious and speaks to a huge degree of arrogance by the Russian govt and Sukhoi in thinking that it would be easy to slap together an F-22-killer two decades after the "Yanks" did it.

This WAS Russia's "next generation" air superiority fighter program, there's no other way to slice it. The program is now over. As others have said, you can't shelve these types of things for later - if they don't have the money now, they won't in the future, and by then technology will have changed to the point of making the system obsolete (which stealth-wise, I thought it was from the start). As I mentioned before, I think everything else beyond this point will be unmanned - that's the type of system which would better suite Russia's requirements and specialties/industry anyways, and would be far cheaper to procure, maintain, etc - while lasting long into the future.
 
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Slug71
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Re: Sukhoi SU-57

Wed Jul 18, 2018 10:25 pm

estorilm wrote:
Slug71 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:

Are you telling me that the Russians planned to build only 12 and developed an aircraft for that? You build a fighter with the prospects of at least 200-400 a/c or 500 or 1.000, not 12, that is plain ridiculous. Far too expensive to do it like this. No there is something seriously wrong here and it aint the official Russian propaganda.


Russia significantly cut their order several times, down to just 12. Then only 12 were purchased. Beyond that there has been no indication that they WOULD buy more, other than what they "envisioned". I've always thought that it would be dependent on the India deal materializing.

Russia is also facing additional sanctions which is going to pinch the wallet. I don't think the program is over though.
I think the project is just paused for now while the study extensive design changes. Too big for the "update as you go" approach they seem to have, and likely also due to data analysis. Or no responsibility to please a "partner".
Too many variables. I don't question their ability though.

I wouldn't be too surprised to see a heavily updated version roll out in a few years. Possibly even two versions. Lowering(/enlarging) the weapons bay level with the bottom of the engines, would significantly increase the volume of the weapons bay. Good bay for a fighter bomber/strike fighter.
Eventually the Su-34 will need replacing too.

You're not seeing clearly my friend.

Russia has 12 or so flying prototypes that were NEVER meant to be combat ready. If you do some research, you'll see that the initial procurement for the aircraft was estimated at over 150, plus more for India. That number was steadily reduced till (for some bizarre and pointless reason) they decided to order 12.

FWIW they've subsequently said that it "doesn't make sense to develop the aircraft at this time" - implying that there will never be 12 aircraft delivered, which is fairly obvious as it would be TOTALLY pointless to spend the absurd amount of money required to finalize the weapons systems, avionics, engines, and flight testing phases for a dozen aircraft.

That's like saying the US spent hundreds of millions of dollars on the JSF program early on, just to see their 13 initial prototypes get into the air. Then they were going to re-evaluate and see if anyone really wanted the thing. :lol:

There's NO other way to spin these developments (or what many have been saying about the PAK-FA program from the beginning) - the entire program was massively over-ambitious and speaks to a huge degree of arrogance by the Russian govt and Sukhoi in thinking that it would be easy to slap together an F-22-killer two decades after the "Yanks" did it.

This WAS Russia's "next generation" air superiority fighter program, there's no other way to slice it. The program is now over. As others have said, you can't shelve these types of things for later - if they don't have the money now, they won't in the future, and by then technology will have changed to the point of making the system obsolete (which stealth-wise, I thought it was from the start). As I mentioned before, I think everything else beyond this point will be unmanned - that's the type of system which would better suite Russia's requirements and specialties/industry anyways, and would be far cheaper to procure, maintain, etc - while lasting long into the future.


I stated the the order was dropped several times from the initial order of 150 down to 12.
The 12 production frames are separate from the 10/11 test/development frames. Those 12 frames will still be built.
There is no source claiming otherwise.
 
checksixx
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Re: Sukhoi SU-57

Thu Jul 19, 2018 2:04 am

Slug71 wrote:
I stated the the order was dropped several times from the initial order of 150 down to 12.
The 12 production frames are separate from the 10/11 test/development frames. Those 12 frames will still be built.
There is no source claiming otherwise.


Maybe when they said they were cancelling the program? Seems unlikely they will plug money into building any further aircraft...
 
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Slug71
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Re: Sukhoi SU-57

Thu Jul 19, 2018 4:02 am

checksixx wrote:
Slug71 wrote:
I stated the the order was dropped several times from the initial order of 150 down to 12.
The 12 production frames are separate from the 10/11 test/development frames. Those 12 frames will still be built.
There is no source claiming otherwise.


Maybe when they said they were cancelling the program? Seems unlikely they will plug money into building any further aircraft...


It's right in the article man.

"Consequently, the Russian defense ministry is likely not to place an order beyond an initial pre-production batch of 12 Su-57 fighter jets. (In June, the ministry has reportedly awarded SC Sukhoi Company an initial contract for the supply of the first batch of 12 Su-57 aircraft.)"
 
P1aneMad
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Re: Sukhoi SU-57

Fri May 17, 2019 9:52 am

Russia is set to procure 76 Su-57s by 2028, according to the Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Russia is slated to purchase 76 Sukhoi Su-57 fighter aircraft, the country’s first purported indigenously designed and built fifth-generation stealth fighter jet, by 2028, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced on May 15.

“The 2028 arms program stipulated the purchase of 16 such jets,” Putin said during a defense meeting, according to TASS news agency. “We have agreed to purchase 76 such fighters without the increase in prices in the same period of time.”

During the same meeting, Russian Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu noted that the per-unit cost per aircraft and associated equipment went down by 20 percent.

According to the Russian president, no contract for the 76 Su-57 fighter jets has been signed.

“In the nearest future we will sign a package contract to supply 76 such jets equipped with modern weapons of destruction and provided with the necessary land infrastructure,” the president said yesterday.

Three aviation regiments of the Russian Air Force are expected to receive the Su-57. The service is slated to officially take delivery of the first Su-57 this year.

More details here: https://thediplomat.com/2019/05/russia-to-procure-76-su-57-stealth-fighter-jets-by-2028/

IF Russia is able to introduce into service these aircraft by 2028 it will lag the US forces in 5th generation fighter jets by a factor of around 15 to 1.
that is without taking into account the numbers that the rest of NATO countries would have field by then.
 
aumaverick
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Re: Sukhoi SU-57

Fri May 17, 2019 5:08 pm

Could this possibly be a move to bolster the chance of Turkey purchasing the SU-57?
I'm just here so I won't get fined. - Marshawn Lynch
 
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keesje
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Re: Sukhoi SU-57

Fri May 17, 2019 7:20 pm

"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
Ozair
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Re: Sukhoi SU-57

Fri May 17, 2019 11:04 pm

keesje wrote:

Please tell me that 140000 rubles for a Colonel is not a yearly wage....
 
Planeflyer
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Re: Sukhoi SU-57

Sun May 19, 2019 8:49 pm

Why are the Russians having such difficulty with this?
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Sukhoi SU-57

Sun May 19, 2019 10:16 pm

Planeflyer wrote:
Why are the Russians having such difficulty with this?


money? Or particularly the lag of it.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
meecrob
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Re: Sukhoi SU-57

Mon May 20, 2019 1:09 am

To expand on what Dutchy said, there is an engineering saying that (to paraphrase) is: it takes 50% of your time, money and resources to develop a project from 0 to 90% completion, and another 50% of time, money and resources to go the extra 10%. Its why a Corvette is $100,000 and a Ferarri is $1,000,000. Stealth is one of those things that you need to go the whole distance or its totally a wasted effort (fit and finish has to be absolutely perfect. If even one panel is off by a thousandth of an inch, the whole plane will light up a radar), whereas with an SU-27 for example you can say "good enough" at a certain point.
 
ThePointblank
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Re: Sukhoi SU-57

Mon May 20, 2019 2:07 am

meecrob wrote:
To expand on what Dutchy said, there is an engineering saying that (to paraphrase) is: it takes 50% of your time, money and resources to develop a project from 0 to 90% completion, and another 50% of time, money and resources to go the extra 10%. Its why a Corvette is $100,000 and a Ferarri is $1,000,000. Stealth is one of those things that you need to go the whole distance or its totally a wasted effort (fit and finish has to be absolutely perfect. If even one panel is off by a thousandth of an inch, the whole plane will light up a radar), whereas with an SU-27 for example you can say "good enough" at a certain point.

Correct. Stealth takes a lot of good engineering and tight tolerances to pull off successfully, and that takes a lot of money and commitment to achieve.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Sukhoi SU-57

Mon May 20, 2019 7:05 pm

ThePointblank wrote:
meecrob wrote:
To expand on what Dutchy said, there is an engineering saying that (to paraphrase) is: it takes 50% of your time, money and resources to develop a project from 0 to 90% completion, and another 50% of time, money and resources to go the extra 10%. Its why a Corvette is $100,000 and a Ferarri is $1,000,000. Stealth is one of those things that you need to go the whole distance or its totally a wasted effort (fit and finish has to be absolutely perfect. If even one panel is off by a thousandth of an inch, the whole plane will light up a radar), whereas with an SU-27 for example you can say "good enough" at a certain point.

Correct. Stealth takes a lot of good engineering and tight tolerances to pull off successfully, and that takes a lot of money and commitment to achieve.


Yes and that kind of goes against Russian doctrine to make something which is sturdy and works on airfields under battlefield conditions. So the Ruskis have a dilemma here. And of course, the lack of resources doesn't help either, there is some doubt that the Russians could even deliver such a craft without the resources of other countries, like India.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
hmmwv
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Re: Sukhoi SU-57

Tue May 21, 2019 8:35 pm

meecrob wrote:
To expand on what Dutchy said, there is an engineering saying that (to paraphrase) is: it takes 50% of your time, money and resources to develop a project from 0 to 90% completion, and another 50% of time, money and resources to go the extra 10%. Its why a Corvette is $100,000 and a Ferarri is $1,000,000. Stealth is one of those things that you need to go the whole distance or its totally a wasted effort (fit and finish has to be absolutely perfect. If even one panel is off by a thousandth of an inch, the whole plane will light up a radar), whereas with an SU-27 for example you can say "good enough" at a certain point.


I agree, any major aviation power can produce a working stealth demonstrator, but getting all the systems integrated and software debugged will take a lot of time and resources. Having said that, most Ferrari cost less than $300,000, and I've seen F-22A and F-35A close up and both have panels that don't fit perfectly, a thousandth of an inch is exaggerating.
 
sovietjet
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Re: Sukhoi SU-57

Tue May 28, 2019 3:25 pm

Let's take a look at the finer details in this picture and then tell me what tolerances and finish are required again... I see plenty of random colored panels, rivets, gaps, and etc

https://www.airliners.net/photo/USA-Air- ... ASC/Mfg%3D
 
meecrob
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Re: Sukhoi SU-57

Tue May 28, 2019 3:30 pm

I don't believe they apply the RAM for all training missions as it is time consuming and without it, enemies cannot accurately predict it's combat RCS. Have any of you seen any LO aircraft in combat config, as opposed to Air show config?
 
sovietjet
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Re: Sukhoi SU-57

Wed May 29, 2019 2:28 am

meecrob wrote:
I don't believe they apply the RAM for all training missions as it is time consuming and without it, enemies cannot accurately predict it's combat RCS. Have any of you seen any LO aircraft in combat config, as opposed to Air show config?


I can believe that, but these were F-22s from Elmendorf, so they weren't the "training" ones based at Tyndall or the test ones from Nellis and Edwards where LO isn't as critical.
 
estorilm
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Re: Sukhoi SU-57

Mon Jun 10, 2019 9:12 pm

sovietjet wrote:
Let's take a look at the finer details in this picture and then tell me what tolerances and finish are required again... I see plenty of random colored panels, rivets, gaps, and etc

https://www.airliners.net/photo/USA-Air ... ASC/Mfg%3D

Eh based on your username, I'm not sure if you'll take my word for the following, but I'll give it a shot! ;)

The colors of the panels have nothing to do with "tolerances" or fit and finish. These aircraft have been flying for decades, and coatings are usually applied differently if a part is replaced, or moved from one aircraft to another - again these are functional machines and looking good is the last thing that matters. Had a chance to walk around a heavily-used demo bird (think inches) and while it was definitely rough looking, the seams etc were as-new. Being in the rotation as a demo aircraft, I assume they don't touch the coatings till they absolutely need to.

The critical element here is the actual tolerances of the design itself and the components during manufacture - which is essentially as perfect as you're likely to see in any fighter. The control surface gaps and actuator fairings are another element here - the Raptor has (IIRC) much smaller actuators, and less of them - the points of the control surfaces where they hinge/interact with the wing and tail surfaces is also complex and angled such that deflection has a minimal effect on gaps ie RCS etc. That stuff is VERY EXPENSIVE.. skipping some areas or making fairings larger might be "good enough" but it doesn't mean they're the same. You're also talking about a technology gap of nearly 30 years here - everything on the SU-57 really should honestly be better than the F-22 - budget constraints are clearly hitting the program hard.


Back to the main topic here though as far as development goes - like someone said above, getting the thing in the air is one thing, finishing that final 10% could take as long as it did to get the prototypes built and flying. You're talking key technologies here that (no offense) have not been mastered yet by the Russians. Namely the stealth itself.. again as someone above implied, it's pointless if it's "kinda" stealth, although it'll still be good for PR since the general public won't know or care. I've got to say, you don't need to be an expert to realize that key elements of the SU-57 are NOT stealthy and likely never will be. I read in a few places that at some point it was decided that frontal RCS would take a clear priority over anything else, especially rear and belly RCS which likely can't achieve decent performance without a redesign. Seems like an interceptor role being envisioned.

They still have to test weapons release systems and launchers, they have GOT TO GET more of the izdeliye 30 engines in there and tested. Everything else is a complete dead-end thrust and range wise. The Raptor had the correct engine and thrust requirements from day one (actually long before the airframe was ready to fly) and there's a lot of testing that goes into matching and checking airframe performance to the right engine. It's unlikely that they've been able to check ANYTHING relating to supercruise on this jet yet, and considering the izdeliye 30 is really their first modern engine in this thrust class, incorporating a TON of new technologies not seen before in Russian engine designs or manufacturing, I think it's safe to assume that it will also encounter continued problems and delays.

Avionics is another huge problem - the design, layout, ergonomics, and interface of the SU-57 will need to be a huge break from traditional Russian doctrine involving old-school pilot workload and systems. To be an effective fighter against the deadliest aircraft in the world, it's going to need some advanced and clean (user interface) data-sharing capabilities for the battlespace as well. This is one element where the F-35 is (and will likely remain) in a class of its own for quite some time. Again, the SU-57 is much newer and really needs to be better for it to be considered a success for Russia.

Also how far are they in the development of an effective RAM coating? All the pictures we see involve cute paint schemes for PR - till you see an SU-57 flying around with flat / single color coatings, it's extremely unlikely that they're at this phase of development yet. Once it's actually out there, they'll probably have to deal with a decade of perfecting maintenance-wise, especially given the extreme climates it will likely operate in.

Just my $ .02 - in general I'm a little surprised to hear this given the still-recent news that the SU-57 would continue only as a limited / testing project till further notice.
 
sovietjet
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Re: Sukhoi SU-57

Thu Jun 20, 2019 9:04 pm

estorilm wrote:

Just my $ .02 - in general I'm a little surprised to hear this given the still-recent news that the SU-57 would continue only as a limited / testing project till further notice.


You make some good points. As for my username, let's just say I made it as a half joke a long time ago in a galaxy far far away when I was still a young teenager :D . I like the classic Cold War era Russian designs, but I also can identify their limitations and those of the newer current designs.
 
estorilm
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Re: Sukhoi SU-57

Fri Jun 21, 2019 7:01 pm

sovietjet wrote:
estorilm wrote:

Just my $ .02 - in general I'm a little surprised to hear this given the still-recent news that the SU-57 would continue only as a limited / testing project till further notice.


You make some good points. As for my username, let's just say I made it as a half joke a long time ago in a galaxy far far away when I was still a young teenager :D . I like the classic Cold War era Russian designs, but I also can identify their limitations and those of the newer current designs.

Haha no worries, thanks for reading my novel!

I think I'm most curious to see how the avionics layout and integration will be performed. Like I said above, that will be a huge leap forward vs. their most advanced fighters currently.
 
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keesje
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Re: Sukhoi SU-57

Fri Jun 21, 2019 9:47 pm

The Su-57 looks a bit more elegant, maybe because it doesn't need the huge tail surfaces.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway

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