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keesje
Posts: 13103
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Re: Canada - Future Fighter Capability Project

Wed Sep 04, 2019 6:07 pm

Ozair wrote:
keesje wrote:
I still expect we haven't seen the last of the Rafale in de Canadian context. "NORAD" isn't a magical wall that can never be pulled down into a workable compromise.

This isn't 1983 & the French are on the fence.

Participation of Canadian industry in the Airbus/Dassault next gen stealth fighter can add up to the increasingly succesfull A220 program.

Keesje, the only way a Rafale can enter the competition is if the current competition is scrapped completely and restarted. While that is possible it is highly highly unlikely, the can has been pushed down the road too many times. Dassault withdrew and as per the conditions of the current tender they cannot re-enter.

Even then, the longer the competition is delayed the more likely an F-35 win as the F-35 only gets cheaper and more capable compared to its competitors. Any nation today who banked on FCAS coming in on time or being able to offer the industrial work that is available for the F-35 program is fooling themselves...


The purchase procedure is not stronger than (changing) politics, as we know and have seen in this project also.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
Ozair
Posts: 4145
Joined: Mon Jan 31, 2005 8:38 am

Re: Canada - Future Fighter Capability Project

Wed Sep 04, 2019 9:28 pm

keesje wrote:
Ozair wrote:
keesje wrote:
I still expect we haven't seen the last of the Rafale in de Canadian context. "NORAD" isn't a magical wall that can never be pulled down into a workable compromise.

This isn't 1983 & the French are on the fence.

Participation of Canadian industry in the Airbus/Dassault next gen stealth fighter can add up to the increasingly succesfull A220 program.

Keesje, the only way a Rafale can enter the competition is if the current competition is scrapped completely and restarted. While that is possible it is highly highly unlikely, the can has been pushed down the road too many times. Dassault withdrew and as per the conditions of the current tender they cannot re-enter.

Even then, the longer the competition is delayed the more likely an F-35 win as the F-35 only gets cheaper and more capable compared to its competitors. Any nation today who banked on FCAS coming in on time or being able to offer the industrial work that is available for the F-35 program is fooling themselves...


The purchase procedure is not stronger than (changing) politics, as we know and have seen in this project also.

How’s that working out for you Keesje?
1. Trudeau says we won’t buy F-35 but the F-35 is now likely the favourite to win the competition.
2. Canada could have easily removed the F-35 from the competition by stating a requirement for two engines, but because it is an open and fair competition it couldn’t. That would have also removed the final remaining Eurocanard.
3. Canada could have politically removed the SH from the competition because of Bombardier issues, but it didn’t and now the SH is clearly the second favourite to win the selection.
4. Because of an MOU signed to participate in the JSF program Canada couldn’t exclude the F-35 due to industry offset clauses. Politically the Trudeau Government could have withdrawn from the JSF partnership, making the F-35 cost potentially higher and therefore giving other aircraft a better chance but they didn’t because the loss of industrial work would have sent a terrible political message.
5. Even if Canada had politically been successful in excluding the F-35, Dassault and Eurofighter would still have withdrawn because they wouldn’t have been able to meet NORAD requirements within a cost structure that was competitive or likely within the budgetary cap for Canada. The only way those airframes were ever going to be competitive is if no US airframe was available for selection. That is another political fail.

Time to wake up to reality Keesje, political issues as TObound has also pointed out are no longer a factor in this competition. In this case yes the purchase procedure has clearly demonstrated it is stronger than changing politics.
 
mxaxai
Posts: 1089
Joined: Sat Jun 18, 2016 7:29 am

Re: Canada - Future Fighter Capability Project

Thu Sep 05, 2019 6:07 am

Ozair wrote:
Time to wake up to reality Keesje, political issues as TObound has also pointed out are no longer a factor in this competition. In this case yes the purchase procedure has clearly demonstrated it is stronger than changing politics.

At the end of the day, it's still politicians who provide a budget, who sign the contracts, who are the public face of the purchase, and who put their career (as politicians) on the line. There is no automatism. Deciding is not the job of beaurocrats.
On the other hand, the requirements are reviewed by politicians as well. Clearly, the competition favors the F-35. Somebody didn't see the contradiction between that and saying "we won't buy the F-35". Probably a sucessful politician. At least Canada now knows that they got the best offers from all competitors, and has no reason to complain about the price again.
 
Ozair
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Joined: Mon Jan 31, 2005 8:38 am

Re: Canada - Future Fighter Capability Project

Thu Sep 05, 2019 12:40 pm

mxaxai wrote:
Ozair wrote:
Time to wake up to reality Keesje, political issues as TObound has also pointed out are no longer a factor in this competition. In this case yes the purchase procedure has clearly demonstrated it is stronger than changing politics.

At the end of the day, it's still politicians who provide a budget, who sign the contracts, who are the public face of the purchase, and who put their career (as politicians) on the line. There is no automatism. Deciding is not the job of beaurocrats.

Deciding is the job of bureaucrats, that is why Governments employ tender evaluation teams full of subject matter experts, and few if any politicians put their careers on the line when it comes to defence purchases. No one remembers the individual politicians who sign for the equipment, especially given it is often years later when the equipment is actually delivered.

mxaxai wrote:
On the other hand, the requirements are reviewed by politicians as well.

No mate, that is most certainly not the case, there isn't a politician in the western world who reviews the requirements. They might read the two page overview but to read requirements documents that are literally hundreds and sometimes thousands of pages is a clearly wrong.

mxaxai wrote:
Clearly, the competition favors the F-35.

LOL, how does the competition favour the F-35? If you mean the competition favours the most capable aircraft then yes you are correct. I'm not sure how that can be a bad thing to want the best aircraft for your military and in this case also the one that comes at the cheapest cost.
 
mxaxai
Posts: 1089
Joined: Sat Jun 18, 2016 7:29 am

Re: Canada - Future Fighter Capability Project

Thu Sep 05, 2019 6:31 pm

Ozair wrote:
mxaxai wrote:
On the other hand, the requirements are reviewed by politicians as well.

No mate, that is most certainly not the case, there isn't a politician in the western world who reviews the requirements. They might read the two page overview but to read requirements documents that are literally hundreds and sometimes thousands of pages is a clearly wrong.
So why do we have elected politicians if they aren't held responsible for the decisions they make? Politicians are the public face of such transactions, and the only thing a politician cares about is getting reelected. Do you really believe that they can't afford more than five minutes to study what they're spending billions of tax monies on?
Ozair wrote:
mxaxai wrote:
Clearly, the competition favors the F-35.

LOL, how does the competition favour the F-35? If you mean the competition favours the most capable aircraft then yes you are correct. I'm not sure how that can be a bad thing to want the best aircraft for your military and in this case also the one that comes at the cheapest cost.
There is no contradiction here. It's just that a brief look at the specs on Wikipedia, or this forum, would've returned the same results for much less cost. Why say "We won't buy X" and then create a competition where X is the obvious winner?
 
Ozair
Posts: 4145
Joined: Mon Jan 31, 2005 8:38 am

Re: Canada - Future Fighter Capability Project

Fri Sep 06, 2019 2:54 am

mxaxai wrote:
So why do we have elected politicians if they aren't held responsible for the decisions they make?

What knowledge or skill do most politicians bring to their portfolios? Do you think most of them, or even a few of them know the first thing about in this case defence? Do you think if they decided to read a thousand page requirements document that they could actually add any value?

Tell me, what experience in the defence sector does Ursula von der Leyen bring? How about Florence Parly? Robert Wallace for the UK at least served as a Captain in the British Army but that hardly qualifies him to review and comment of the requirements for a fighter jet. The Canadian Defence Minister Harjit Saijin served with the Canadian Army as well before moving to policing. His experience in the Army still doesn’t qualify him to make informed comment on a thousand page fighter jet requirements document.

mxaxai wrote:
Politicians are the public face of such transactions, and the only thing a politician cares about is getting reelected. Do you really believe that they can't afford more than five minutes to study what they're spending billions of tax monies on?

Again, Defence departments employ large numbers of highly skilled and knowledgeable staff to make recommendations that a Minister would approve. Not only is a minister busy with public engagements, actually appearing in parliament but also the width and breadth of managing a department that is often larger than most fortune 500 companies. A defence minister does more than just sign acquisition docs, they manage the affairs of current military deployments, changing legislation, are concerned with raise, train and sustain efforts, are involved in inquiries about things going wrong, preparing the next years military budget, promotions etc. To expect them to be all over every aspect of a procurement, even one as large as a fighter jet, is simply not possible.

mxaxai wrote:
Why say "We won't buy X" and then create a competition where X is the obvious winner?

The answer to that is very simple. It is easy to say “we won’t buy X” when you are in opposition trying to win majority government. It is a far different matter to then actually run a competition, or manage the budget etc according to legislation and established Government policy when you are in Government…
 
Ozair
Posts: 4145
Joined: Mon Jan 31, 2005 8:38 am

Re: Canada - Future Fighter Capability Project

Fri Sep 06, 2019 2:59 am

A poorly researched article in the F-35 and its visit to Ottawa and how this impacts the Canadian fighter competition.

The high-speed hard sell: why the F-35 is coming to a Canadian air show

The F-35, the warplane Prime Minister Justin Trudeau promised not to buy four years ago, touched down in Ottawa on Wednesday — on the eve of a federal election — as one of the leading contenders in the competition to replace the air force's aging CF-18 jet fighters.

The stealth jet's demonstration team will perform this weekend at an air show in Gatineau, Que., giving many of the capital's movers and shakers their first up-close look at an aircraft that has consumed a lot of oxygen in Canadian politics.

During the last election, the Liberals famously (or infamously) promised not to buy the F-35 and said they would opt instead for a cheaper aircraft, using the savings to refit the navy.

The jet's manufacturer, Lockheed Martin — the world's largest defence contractor — is among the bidders in the $19 billion competition launched by the Liberals in July to supply Canada with 88 jets. Lockheed Martin is making its case both behind closed doors and through a marketing campaign that includes billboards throughout the capital region and a heavy social media presence.

...

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/f35-ca ... -1.5270600

Interesting to note that Saab don’t consider the tender to be rigged I favour of the F-35,

That led to speculation about whether the other European competitor — Saab — would also drop out. The company's CEO, in an interview with Swedish media a few weeks ago, said his company does not believe the fix is in for the F-35.
"In the last process that was closed, we had the same view, that is, it was very rigged for U.S. F-35," said Hakan Buskhe, who was quoted in July by Dagensindustri (Di), a business and finance publication.
"The countries that have chosen F-35 have had almost the same procurement document. We do not have the same view today, but we have the view that it is an open procurement."

 
YIMBY
Posts: 606
Joined: Tue Sep 20, 2016 4:32 pm

Re: Canada - Future Fighter Capability Project

Fri Sep 06, 2019 3:13 pm

Ozair wrote:


For heaven's sake, in democratic countries the politicians, representing the electorate, have the final say. And should have.

The bureaucrats give the facts, and the politicians evaluate the facts, compare with their values and interests, make compromises and finally decisions. It is not a perfect system as many politicians (if not the most, at least where I live) are inept and untrustable, but it is the very best system tried so far. Who misses a military dictatorship?

Making major decisions of military hardware is never a purely technical issue, never. There are always several social, civil, economic and political aspects beyond the military expertise. In the best cases these are taken into account beforehand, incorporated in the rules given in the RFB, but situations change. Even the desired capability is a political issues as it depends on the mission profiles whose emphases are at least partly political.

The democracy does have a drawback as even honest politicians may make superficial decisions depending partly on whose face they like, who has insulted them and who pays most on their district. And the parliament has a full authority to make even stupid decisions, like changing the rules afterwards. It requires just a simple majority, as it is not a constitutional issue. But there is no significantly better alternative on this planet (details on democracies may vary).
 
ThePointblank
Posts: 3194
Joined: Sat Jan 17, 2009 11:39 pm

Re: Canada - Future Fighter Capability Project

Sat Sep 14, 2019 2:07 am

This maybe connected to the current fighter competition:

https://dailyhive.com/vancouver/abbotsf ... ring-plant

US firm considering $830 million aircraft manufacturing plant in Lower Mainland
Kenneth Chan
|
Sep 12 2019, 5:35 pm

BC’s Lower Mainland is in the running as a possible site for the development of a new major aircraft manufacturing plant with the potential to employ thousands of people.

In an economic investment and growth update, a report by staff with the City of Abbotsford notes the municipality is being considered by an unnamed US aerospace firm “as a Canadian site” for the new plant.

There are two development options of varying scale; the smaller plant would produce a $125-million investment with 7,000 new jobs, while the large plant would result in an $830-million investment and 10,000 or more jobs.

Such a facility would of course require a very significantly-sized site, but no locations have been publicly identified at this time. The plant would certainly bolster the Fraser Valley’s economy, and likely create a further upward demand in housing.

The report will be reviewed by city council next week, and the next round of engagement is scheduled to occur in January 2020.

Major US aerospace firms include Boeing, Lockheed Martin, Gulfstream Aerospace, and Boom Supersonic.


AFAIK, the only major aerospace company in the region is Cascades Aerospace, which has ties to Lockheed Martin; they are only one of two Lockheed Martin-approved service and heavy maintenance centers for the C-130 Hercules. I can easily see Lockheed Martin expanding their presence in the region due to the ties.

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