mig21umd
Topic Author
Posts: 313
Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2005 6:30 pm

Re: Croatia selects Israeli F-16s to replace their Mig-21s.

Sat Jan 19, 2019 2:42 am

"I can exactly see why the big bad US is to blame here..."

Who ever said the big bad US was to blame? On the contrary, I actually defended their move by saying I had nothing against Trump but eluded to that his protectionist policies is what killed this deal which I still believe could have been the case. It was obvious that even Israel to the last minute tried to persuade the US in letting the deal go through and as one of Lockheed Martin's biggest customers, the Israelis probably thought they could and convinced the Croatian side that they could. Croatia took this for granted and yes that was a major error!

I don't believe as you stated above that you can get 12 or so ready to fly F-16's from the US with weapons/training all included for the price as mentioned above. If that was the case, every Country in Europe or around the world who is looking to buy new fighters would have bought these years ago. Maybe even Serbia would be operators of these jets as they would have been cheaper than the 300 million they'll spend on their donated MIG-29s.


TripleDelta wrote:
As expected, more information damning for the Croatian government has started to come out. A third leak recently revealed that not only had the US Embassy e-mailed the Croatian MoD the entire "non-paper" (which outlined in detail all US conditions and restrictions), it also dispatched the Military Attache to deliver the document in person and brief the MoD chiefs on its contents. The meeting is said to have occurred on or around 25 January 2018, roughly a week after the aforementioned e-mail.

The MoD had, once again, not disputed the authenticity of this information. If true, it would appear that the government knew the Baraks could not be delivered in their Israeli config some six to nine months before they were officially selected. This would point either to a belief that they could con out the US... or that the deal is far more rotten and damaging than is currently known.


As I wrote above, this just goes to show that what I thought about the Croatian MoD is most probably true. They convinced themselves that Israel would get the approvals. If on the other hand it proves that this was all about making some people a quick buck,,,,, well that would just be beyond sad especially when you consider the main person involved (Krstičević).
Once you have tasted flight, you will forever walk the earth with your eyes turned skyward, for there you long to return
 
User avatar
TripleDelta
Screener
Posts: 1238
Joined: Sat Jul 17, 2004 4:13 pm

Re: Croatia selects Israeli F-16s to replace their Mig-21s.

Sat Jan 19, 2019 7:56 am

mig21umd wrote:
I don't believe as you stated above that you can get 12 or so ready to fly F-16's from the US with weapons/training all included for the price as mentioned above.


Straight from the horse's mouth (emphasis mine):

the certification of a proposed transfer of major defense equipment of F-16 C/D aircraft with munitions, spare parts, support equipment, an aircraft simulator, and training services from the Government of Israel to the Government of Croatia with a sales value of $135,000,000


Source: https://www.congress.gov/senate-communi ... ation/7454

The MoD has still not answered any media inquiries about the USD 365.000.000 difference in the price reported to the public.
Hawkeye: "It doesn't make any sense."
Radar: "Well, none of it makes any sense. You just have to send in the right number of forms." - MASH 4077
 
mig21umd
Topic Author
Posts: 313
Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2005 6:30 pm

Re: Croatia selects Israeli F-16s to replace their Mig-21s.

Sat Jan 19, 2019 11:19 am

TripleDelta wrote:
mig21umd wrote:
I don't believe as you stated above that you can get 12 or so ready to fly F-16's from the US with weapons/training all included for the price as mentioned above.


Straight from the horse's mouth (emphasis mine):

the certification of a proposed transfer of major defense equipment of F-16 C/D aircraft with munitions, spare parts, support equipment, an aircraft simulator, and training services from the Government of Israel to the Government of Croatia with a sales value of $135,000,000


Source: https://www.congress.gov/senate-communi ... ation/7454

The MoD has still not answered any media inquiries about the USD 365.000.000 difference in the price reported to the public.


Yes as stated before that this is the value of the aircraft without their service life extended so Croatia was paying for aircraft which would have 3000 hours air frame time and not near zero.

What I haven't heard from the Croatian media and I think it would be a reasonable question to ask is why was the deal between Australia and Canada approved and not this deal? This is something that the Croatian media if they were worth their salt should be asking but I guess they all decided that they didn't want the Baraks in Croatian service so this clear double standard from the US has not been addressed, especially since the failed deal between Canada and the US that the RAAF hornets are being used to replace is worth way more to the US economy than a few F-16's to some Eastern European countries.

Was the Barak from an American perspective a little too much of a plane in terms of capabilities for Croatia?
Once you have tasted flight, you will forever walk the earth with your eyes turned skyward, for there you long to return
 
User avatar
TripleDelta
Screener
Posts: 1238
Joined: Sat Jul 17, 2004 4:13 pm

Re: Croatia selects Israeli F-16s to replace their Mig-21s.

Sat Jan 19, 2019 12:00 pm

mig21umd wrote:
Yes as stated before that this is the value of the aircraft without their service life extended so Croatia was paying for aircraft which would have 3000 hours air frame time and not near zero.


So, a moderate life extension program and a few Israeli bits and bobs would cost twice what the aircraft themselves and their entire accompanying infrastructure is worth? You honestly don't see the logical fallacy here?

mig21umd wrote:
they all decided that they didn't want the Baraks in Croatian service so this clear double standard from the US has not been addressed


mig21umd wrote:
Was the Barak from an American perspective a little too much of a plane in terms of capabilities for Croatia?


Yes, the US is clearly concerned with worn-out, 30-year-old rust buckets being sold to a tiny air force that would probably cannibalize 10 of them just to keep the remaining two flying for a few years...
Hawkeye: "It doesn't make any sense."
Radar: "Well, none of it makes any sense. You just have to send in the right number of forms." - MASH 4077
 
Ozair
Posts: 4145
Joined: Mon Jan 31, 2005 8:38 am

Re: Croatia selects Israeli F-16s to replace their Mig-21s.

Sat Jan 19, 2019 12:15 pm

mig21umd wrote:
What I haven't heard from the Croatian media and I think it would be a reasonable question to ask is why was the deal between Australia and Canada approved and not this deal? This is something that the Croatian media if they were worth their salt should be asking but I guess they all decided that they didn't want the Baraks in Croatian service so this clear double standard from the US has not been addressed, especially since the failed deal between Canada and the US that the RAAF hornets are being used to replace is worth way more to the US economy than a few F-16's to some Eastern European countries.

Big difference. For a start Canada already operate classic Hornets so acquiring more from another operator is less of an issue. The other side of this is Australia still had to seek US permission to sell the aircraft to Canada.


mig21umd wrote:
Was the Barak from an American perspective a little too much of a plane in terms of capabilities for Croatia?

Nothing to do with the capability of the aircraft. Israel acquired the F-16s gifted from the US with support undertaken via FMS. Even though Israel acquired the jets from the US for free, and modified them, they are not able to sell them without US permission. Even more important, Israel does not own the intellectual property of the F-16, that is still owned by LM and other US vendors.

The issue with the transfer is that the US made it very clear to Israel that the transfer was contingent on the standard condition with FMS equipment, that is had to be restored to its original condition. Israel promised upgraded aircraft that they weren't legally allowed to offer.

Now what Israel could have done was offer the baseline aircraft and an upgrade package, contingent on US approval, to Barak standard. Obviously that would have been more costly to remove the upgrades from the aircraft, ship them to Croatia and then upgrade them again as well as pay the royalties on that upgrade. That probably would have put the cost over that of other offers including likely the US F-16 offer.

Is the US right to enforce those stipulations on the sale? Legally yes, especially in the context of Israel trying to make a buck from airframes they didn't pay for. Was it the right thing to do? Probably not, having another operator of F-16 aircraft in the region would have been a good thing.

The question now is what will Croatia do? Rerun the contest and allow all sides to be up front, go to the next valid tender, or ??
 
User avatar
TripleDelta
Screener
Posts: 1238
Joined: Sat Jul 17, 2004 4:13 pm

Re: Croatia selects Israeli F-16s to replace their Mig-21s.

Sat Jan 19, 2019 12:36 pm

mig21umd wrote:
What I haven't heard from the Croatian media and I think it would be a reasonable question to ask is why was the deal between Australia and Canada approved and not this deal?


Likely because the Hornet Upgrade Program was based on avionics from the same pool of established Western manufacturers that supply tech to other US-built and operated aircraft - so despite the upgrade, the US gov't still knows what are its capabilities and side effects, and can thus legally support the jets without much harm to itself. The few bits that did come from elsewhere (such as the LITENING pod) were of an export spec that was commercially available to other users as well, and is thus also easy to support.

The Baraks were upgraded solely with custom Israeli tech and intended for Israeli applications only. The extent to which their systems conform to their export versions is likely small. Also, it is entirely possible that the jets sport sensitive equipment that was never intended to be sold at the time - thus the jets' true capabilities and any consequences of the mods on its operation are known only to the Israeli industries that upgraded them.
Hawkeye: "It doesn't make any sense."
Radar: "Well, none of it makes any sense. You just have to send in the right number of forms." - MASH 4077
 
User avatar
TripleDelta
Screener
Posts: 1238
Joined: Sat Jul 17, 2004 4:13 pm

Re: Croatia selects Israeli F-16s to replace their Mig-21s.

Sat Jan 19, 2019 1:54 pm

mig21umd wrote:
Yes as stated before that this is the value of the aircraft without their service life extended so Croatia was paying for aircraft which would have 3000 hours air frame time and not near zero.


What's more, a local defense portal reported that Israeli media quoted a figure of USD 700.000.000 for the buy. So not only is there a huge disparity between the original manufacturer's appraisal and the actual contract, there is now also a significant difference between the seller and buyer.

There's also another issue here: the MoD has repeatedly avoided directly answering media questions about the USD 500.000.000 price tag. If that 365 mil difference really is down to upgrades or SLEP or offset packages - i.e. necessary elements or industry bonuses - why not simply admit it? The whole tender is public and should be transparent... and the MoD could now use all the positive PR it can get. They were after all pretty proud to tout in detail all the long-term investments Israel would make in Croatia back when the news was beneficial to the buy...
Hawkeye: "It doesn't make any sense."
Radar: "Well, none of it makes any sense. You just have to send in the right number of forms." - MASH 4077
 
mig21umd
Topic Author
Posts: 313
Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2005 6:30 pm

Re: Croatia selects Israeli F-16s to replace their Mig-21s.

Sun Jan 20, 2019 4:44 am

The reason I asked the capability question was because the potential of a mini arms race in the region is somewhat of a concern to the US and they would prefer in my opinion for Croatia to have a military force which would match that of Serbia but not better it. So Croatia having an F-16 which could easily defeat any capability Serbia has now or will have in the near future could cause political unbalance, something the US would want to avoid even if it is just on paper. These Barak's seem to be able to fly unmolested through S-300 protected Syrian Airspace so would they be too much of a threat to Serbia causing them to want to further upgrade their deference systems by either inviting the Russians in or going for the S-400?
This is something which America would not want stationed or based in the area.
Once you have tasted flight, you will forever walk the earth with your eyes turned skyward, for there you long to return
 
User avatar
TripleDelta
Screener
Posts: 1238
Joined: Sat Jul 17, 2004 4:13 pm

Re: Croatia selects Israeli F-16s to replace their Mig-21s.

Sun Jan 20, 2019 4:56 am

mig21umd wrote:
The reason I asked the capability question was because the potential of a mini arms race in the region is somewhat of a concern to the US and they would prefer in my opinion for Croatia to have a military force which would match that of Serbia but not better it. So Croatia having an F-16 which could easily defeat any capability Serbia has now or will have in the near future could cause political unbalance, something the US would want to avoid even if it is just on paper. These Barak's seem to be able to fly unmolested through S-300 protected Syrian Airspace so would they be too much of a threat to Serbia causing them to want to further upgrade their deference systems by either inviting the Russians in or going for the S-400?
This is something which America would not want stationed or based in the area.


If the US wanted to regulate the balance of power on the Balkans, they have much more efficient tools available (politics + economics) than interfering with such a minor sale of dinosaur equipment.

Plus, the "rearmament race" between Croatia and Serbia is a paper tiger only; both air and ground forces are so cash strapped that they can only expand through hand-downs and junkyard sales (and the occasional political buy to please someone or other). In an actual combat situation, the Croatian and Serbian forces land and air would be as much a danger to themselves as they are to each other - and this state will likely not change anytime soon, since politicians on both sides of the border are keenly aware that they have space for sabre-rattling solely to please their respective populations. Bread and games meets flag-waving.

EDIT: if anything, Putin's recent visit to Serbia had shown increasing discord between the two countries - mostly due to Serbia's closeness with the EU and work towards becoming a member of NATO. Even more tellingly, roughly 80% of all investments into Serbia (infrastructure, industry, jobs and such) comes from the EU, while Russia contributes only around 5%. The buddy relationship between Serbia and Russia is for show only - Putin wants to show that Russia is still mighty & glorious and that it can project its power globally... while Serbia wants a big brother to make themselves feel better about their place in the region.
Hawkeye: "It doesn't make any sense."
Radar: "Well, none of it makes any sense. You just have to send in the right number of forms." - MASH 4077
 
User avatar
TripleDelta
Screener
Posts: 1238
Joined: Sat Jul 17, 2004 4:13 pm

Re: Croatia selects Israeli F-16s to replace their Mig-21s.

Sun Jan 20, 2019 5:25 am

mig21umd wrote:
a threat to Serbia causing them to want to further upgrade their deference systems.


Several years back, Croatia bought Panzerhaubitze 2000 howitzers from Germany - arguably some of the most powerful and accurate weapons of the type fielded today. To make things "worse", they are well suited for any cross-border clash, since they can harass opposing forces as they make their way slowly across the often difficult terrain separating Croatia and Serbia - which is quite a worry. What was Serbia's reply? Absolutely nothing.

mig21umd wrote:
inviting the Russians


Who are such a hit that when Serbia was looking to replace their armed Gazelles, they went for the H145 - since both the price and political plus points were worth more than help from Russia.
Hawkeye: "It doesn't make any sense."
Radar: "Well, none of it makes any sense. You just have to send in the right number of forms." - MASH 4077
 
mxaxai
Posts: 1089
Joined: Sat Jun 18, 2016 7:29 am

Re: Croatia selects Israeli F-16s to replace their Mig-21s.

Fri Jul 12, 2019 8:00 pm

Some news on this:
The Croatian government re-initiated the procurement of multirole fighter jets last week. Again, the primary contenders are F-16 and Gripen. While proposals for new jets were apparently requested from Lockheed-Martin and Saab, respectively, the acquisition of used Gripens (from Sweden) or used F-16s (from Greece) is also possible. A problem of new jets is not only the price but also the long delivery time.
Proposals are apparently expected by October, a decision next February, and contract signing in about one year from now.

http://www.defense-aerospace.com/articl ... ocess.html
https://obris.org/hrvatska/borbeni-avio ... trakavica/
 
mig21umd
Topic Author
Posts: 313
Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2005 6:30 pm

Re: Croatia selects Israeli F-16s to replace their Mig-21s.

Mon Jul 15, 2019 12:28 pm

ahhh, my head hurts.

If they do go for new jets. the initial order would most likely include 4 to 6 planes. Makes you wonder why Bulgaria, Croatia and Slovakia didn't get together and run a joint bid to try minimising the price. Looks like they will all end up with F-16s anyway.
Once you have tasted flight, you will forever walk the earth with your eyes turned skyward, for there you long to return

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: OhWiss, workhorse and 17 guests

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos