LMP737
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Re: U.S. Space Force - What could it look like?

Sun Jul 01, 2018 11:12 pm

DigitalSea wrote:
I'm all for the US Space Force. Space Dominance is what has allowed us to keep such a watchful eye over the world. With it getting cluttered with adversaries, we'll need to take a step back and re-evaluate our methods of control. (Of course, I'm welcoming Ozair's input on this subject because he's always a source of plentiful knowledge on these forums. Please do post in response to this!)


You need to ask yourself why is it getting cluttered with adversaries. Along with why should we give even more money to the DOD to flush down the toilet.
Never take financial advice from co-workers.
 
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Seabear
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Re: U.S. Space Force - What could it look like?

Thu Aug 09, 2018 4:58 pm

USA TODAY: Space Force: Pence announces new military service

https://usat.ly/2KF7a88

So when the Space Force establish its own Academy... complete with Space Cadets?
 
WIederling
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Re: U.S. Space Force - What could it look like?

Thu Aug 09, 2018 5:11 pm

Seabear wrote:
So when the Space Force establish its own Academy... complete with Space Cadets?


will Heinlein ventilate his grave by going into a CW or a CCW spin ?
Murphy is an optimist
 
DarkKnight5
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Re: U.S. Space Force - What could it look like?

Fri Aug 10, 2018 5:34 pm

All this talk about uniforms and nobody went with the most obvious, and might I say “understated” of all the possibilities...
Image
 
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DL717
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Re: U.S. Space Force - What could it look like?

Sat Aug 11, 2018 3:23 pm

Tugger wrote:
The Air Force already has a good name and group for what has been the US military's connection to space: Space Command
A coordinating command that works to ensure the aspects the military needs addressed in space or by spaced based elements are covered and managed appropriately. They work with partner nations and within agreed protocol to achieve the needed goals. Without directly militarizing space.

Tugg


And the Army has the Signal Corps which operates the comm satellite system plus the Navy Reaserch Labs. These could all be combined into a singular Force. It may sound dumb today, but so did the Air Force when it was formed.

Dutchy wrote:
Will not happen, even the Pentagon is against it. I think people are just shaking their heads and leave it at that.


That’s each branch defending its turf. There is a ton of rediculous and wasteful overlap that could be reduced may making changes to how the military is presently structured that would save billions. There was nothing more amusing then ordering a part for something and seeing 4-5 different prices between the branches for the same exact part.
Everything is chits and giggles until you get old enough to giggle and then you chit.
 
LMP737
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Re: U.S. Space Force - What could it look like?

Sat Aug 11, 2018 5:28 pm

Seabear wrote:
USA TODAY: Space Force: Pence announces new military service

https://usat.ly/2KF7a88

So when the Space Force establish its own Academy... complete with Space Cadets?


He can announce all he wants. In the end it's up to Congress whether or not it will happen. By the sounds of it they don't seem to be much inclined to do it.
Never take financial advice from co-workers.
 
LMP737
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Re: U.S. Space Force - What could it look like?

Sat Aug 11, 2018 5:31 pm

DL717 wrote:

That’s each branch defending its turf. There is a ton of rediculous and wasteful overlap that could be reduced may making changes to how the military is presently structured that would save billions. There was nothing more amusing then ordering a part for something and seeing 4-5 different prices between the branches for the same exact part.


And adding another branch will solve that?
Never take financial advice from co-workers.
 
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JetBuddy
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Re: U.S. Space Force - What could it look like?

Sat Aug 11, 2018 7:35 pm

Both Neil Degrasse Tyson and Michu Kachu have positive things to say about the Space Force. Space has been militarized for decades already.
 
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DL717
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Re: U.S. Space Force - What could it look like?

Sat Aug 11, 2018 10:47 pm

LMP737 wrote:
DL717 wrote:

That’s each branch defending its turf. There is a ton of rediculous and wasteful overlap that could be reduced may making changes to how the military is presently structured that would save billions. There was nothing more amusing then ordering a part for something and seeing 4-5 different prices between the branches for the same exact part.


And adding another branch will solve that?


I’m actually talking about a full restructuring of the military to eliminate duplication and waste.
Everything is chits and giggles until you get old enough to giggle and then you chit.
 
LMP737
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Re: U.S. Space Force - What could it look like?

Tue Aug 14, 2018 12:15 am

DL717 wrote:

I’m actually talking about a full restructuring of the military to eliminate duplication and waste.


I've been hearing that for years. What's the governments solution? Throw more money at the Pentagon. Or when ways are identified to save money bury the report.
Never take financial advice from co-workers.
 
estorilm
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Re: U.S. Space Force - What could it look like?

Wed Aug 15, 2018 2:12 pm

I wonder if things like this have anything to do with it..
State Department concerned over Russian satellite’s behavior
https://www.c4isrnet.com/c2-comms/satellites/2018/08/14/state-department-concerned-over-russian-satellites-behavior/

“The Russian Ministry of Defense recently announced that its Space Troops have received a mobile laser system which Vladimir Putin announced to the world on March 1 of this year. Russia’s leader himself alluded to space weapons being ‘more acceptable in the political and military respect’,” Poblete said.

She said the purpose of the satellite detected in October remains unclear but that U.S. officials find the development especially concerning after Russia’s Space Force Commanded highlighted the importance of assimilating new weapons prototypes into its Space Force.
 
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USNFalconCraft
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Re: U.S. Space Force - What could it look like?

Thu Sep 06, 2018 3:05 pm

I'm curious if we're gonna see the rise of anti-satellite weaponry because of this, if it isn't already happening right now.
Something like this:
Image

Of course, not exactly in that way, since there are probably more modern and better options for anti-satellite weaponry.
 
Flighty
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Re: U.S. Space Force - What could it look like?

Thu Sep 06, 2018 9:34 pm

Yes, the Russians and Chinese have demonstrated anti-Sat weapons. It is unclear what the whole scenario might be.

I believe that as a precautionary measure, the US military has redundant communication systems to deal with an internet outage and orbital damage. To the extent that's NOT true, clearly that is a worry for us, and we need to firstly make sure our things in orbit are safe. And anyhow, losing important sats will wreak havoc for civilians. We probably should not make it easy to go into that scenario.
 
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cpd
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Re: U.S. Space Force - What could it look like?

Fri Sep 07, 2018 4:01 am

Possibility that the X-20 Dyna Soar didn't just end, but rather did result in a working aircraft and that this could have potential use in a space weapons system?
 
mxaxai
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Re: U.S. Space Force - What could it look like?

Fri Sep 07, 2018 9:21 am

Flighty wrote:
Yes, the Russians and Chinese have demonstrated anti-Sat weapons. It is unclear what the whole scenario might be.

I believe that as a precautionary measure, the US military has redundant communication systems to deal with an internet outage and orbital damage. To the extent that's NOT true, clearly that is a worry for us, and we need to firstly make sure our things in orbit are safe. And anyhow, losing important sats will wreak havoc for civilians. We probably should not make it easy to go into that scenario.

Mass destruction of satellites in orbit also renders those (important) orbits unusable, or at least very risky to use, due to space debris for quite some time. Destroying GPS, for example, would also threaten GLONASS and Beidou, whose altitude is only 1000 km less and 2000 km more, respectively.

Anyhow, once you know how to dock to unresponsive objects, e. g. for space debris mitigation, you also have the ability to destroy any working satellite.
 
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trpmb6
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Re: U.S. Space Force - What could it look like?

Fri Sep 07, 2018 1:51 pm

It's kind of that mutually assured destruction scenario that prevents everyone from taking out satellites. At least via destructive means. If US destroys a Russian satellite it doesn't do us much good as we then put all of our satellites in danger of debris. There may be a short term gain. But long term is negative.

That being said, I'm guessing we have the capability to dock to satellites and render them inoperable. It's just costly and, as noted, everyone has redundancies.
 
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Tugger
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Re: U.S. Space Force - What could it look like?

Fri Sep 07, 2018 2:18 pm

The above scenarios are why there is a decently funded development going on for how to "clean up" space debris. While a difficult problem, it is being worked on and there will probably be some level of success.

Now if everything starts getting blown to bits and we end up with a snow of debris in orbit that will be infinitely harder to clear if not impossible.

Tugg
I don’t know that I am unafraid to be myself, but it is hard to be somebody else. -W. Shatner
 
Flighty
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Re: U.S. Space Force - What could it look like?

Fri Sep 07, 2018 3:06 pm

trpmb6 wrote:
It's kind of that mutually assured destruction scenario that prevents everyone from taking out satellites. At least via destructive means. If US destroys a Russian satellite it doesn't do us much good as we then put all of our satellites in danger of debris. There may be a short term gain. But long term is negative.

That being said, I'm guessing we have the capability to dock to satellites and render them inoperable. It's just costly and, as noted, everyone has redundancies.


Right, so some people have talked about "satellite capture" or am I just quoting an Austin Powers movie here?

This type of thing. Image

Or:
https://www.popularmechanics.com/space/ ... wisscubes/

Which is "satellite retrieval," which leads to a need for sats to have defense systems either onboard or in a roving guard sat. I guess the conclusion is inescapable that US and other powers would need to use force to guard their satellites.
 
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trpmb6
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Re: U.S. Space Force - What could it look like?

Fri Sep 07, 2018 3:55 pm

Yeah, while a lot of people seem to kind of brush the whole idea of a space force off as a big joke. I do kind of see a need to protect our satellites. They are just that important.

Imagine the hysteria if another country took out just a few of our communication sats. The headlines (which you probably wouldn't be able to view, at least easily) would be: "Why hasn't something been done to protect our satellites!"
 
mxaxai
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Re: U.S. Space Force - What could it look like?

Sat Sep 08, 2018 10:06 am

trpmb6 wrote:
Yeah, while a lot of people seem to kind of brush the whole idea of a space force off as a big joke. I do kind of see a need to protect our satellites. They are just that important.

Imagine the hysteria if another country took out just a few of our communication sats. The headlines (which you probably wouldn't be able to view, at least easily) would be: "Why hasn't something been done to protect our satellites!"

What do you mean by "protect"?

Satellites are fragile and the involved velocities turn tiny objects into extremely destructive weapons. All you need is a cloud of particles whose trajectory crosses the satellite's at a sufficient angle. You can't "shoot them down" like an atmospheric object since there is no friction to stop them, nor a ground to crash into. Same reason why nukes won't protect us from asteroids.

Satellites aren't particularly agile either. Debris avoidance maneuvers like the ISS does take place far in advance of a potential collision. You won't achieve much in the few minutes it takes for the hostile rocket to reach LEO, and even at GEO I doubt that you'll be able to move far enough.

Protection against a capture would try to disable the approaching satellite without turning it into a cloud of debris (and before it has reached a collision course). So you don't want to use counter-missiles. Satellites are well hardened against radiation so high powered lasers are the only solution I see. Or precise, single bullets to take out its electronics. But you can't be too far away, or you won't reach the other satellite in time.
So how many "defender" sats would you envision? What about your opponent's inevitable "defenders"? Where do you draw the line between a "peaceful defender" and a "threatening aggressor"?

If you thought of some other "protection", please elaborate.
 
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trpmb6
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Re: U.S. Space Force - What could it look like?

Mon Sep 10, 2018 1:13 pm

I was not thinking about protecting satellites from existing debris floating about. Though that is of concern! Fortunately there are already commercial ventures that are working on that exact problem.

I am more concerned about the weaponizing of space and what that could mean for our own, extremely important to national security, satellites. I assume there are protocols in place should all of our communication satellites, GPS satellites, etc, were to be knocked out. But what if one of those protocols was to ensure that they were never destroyed in the first place?

You're right though. Where do you draw the line between peaceful defender and threatening aggressor. At what point does a missile defense system go from being a defender to an aggressor "system". Just a bit of software right? Maybe a hardware addon. I imagine it wouldn't be that difficult.
 
Flighty
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Re: U.S. Space Force - What could it look like?

Tue Sep 11, 2018 10:59 am

trpmb6 wrote:
I was not thinking about protecting satellites from existing debris floating about. Though that is of concern! Fortunately there are already commercial ventures that are working on that exact problem.

I am more concerned about the weaponizing of space and what that could mean for our own, extremely important to national security, satellites. I assume there are protocols in place should all of our communication satellites, GPS satellites, etc, were to be knocked out. But what if one of those protocols was to ensure that they were never destroyed in the first place?

You're right though. Where do you draw the line between peaceful defender and threatening aggressor. At what point does a missile defense system go from being a defender to an aggressor "system". Just a bit of software right? Maybe a hardware addon. I imagine it wouldn't be that difficult.


I think idea of air and sea dominance applies here. Either we have absolute control of who enters the region, or we are just a contestant. That line is thin.

If we want to have satellites during hostility with China, we need to work out how they will attack our satellite and defeat those systems early. In the past, we could stay ahead of opponents because we had more money. Eventually this will moderate. We will reach some sort of MAD with China on space weapons. Russia probably will not have the money to keep up, and they will eventually not be a superpower anymore. They might need to align themselves with one of the pinnacle countries, USA or China IMO.
 
Ruscoe
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Re: U.S. Space Force - What could it look like?

Tue Sep 11, 2018 1:08 pm

Those X37B's have been spending 2 years in space and returning. X37B was transferred to DARPA some years ago, and now we have the Phantom Express spaceplane from DARPA. Also the USA has been "hardening" it's GPS satellites against software attack, and jamming.

I think we will see (no we won't see) unmanned, reusable remotely controlled spaceplanes capable of destroying enemy satellites, and a quick launch system to replace friendly satellites, which are disabled.

It's already too late for a military free space.

Ruscoe
 
Ozair
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Re: U.S. Space Force - What could it look like?

Sun Nov 04, 2018 11:11 pm

Some more info on the "Space Force" including its focus and the size of the branch to be created. Ironic to call a 20,000 person military branch small but I guess in the US context it is.

Strong indications also of how Space Force will interact with the commercial sector by leveraging commercial technological development.

New Space Force to be small military branch, employ 20,000 people

Creation of a Space Force as a sixth branch of the U.S. military will be less about traditional military structure than about development and acquisition of weapons and other systems to address the now militarily contested arena of space, according to Deputy Secretary of Defense Patrick Shanahan.

“The Space Force has been about, ’How do we accelerate providing new space capabilities?” Shanahan said. “And so most of the conversation has been around, how do we change our development and acquisition process?”

Speaking with a small group of reporters from across the county by video conference late last week, Shanahan said the Space Force championed by President Donald Trump would be far smaller than other services. The combined military and civilian force would comprise about 20,000 people — approximately the size of Eglin Air Force Base, Shanahan noted.

Shanahan said the 20,000-person figure is based on the number of people across all of the military services now doing jobs that would be part of the Space Force mission.

“And you know, from where I sit, there’s not a lot of extra money to go around,” Shanahan said. “So we’re not going to go big.”

Another aspect of the Department of Defense’s approach to space is something called the Space Development Agency, which will be designed to eliminate duplication of efforts among the different military services’ pursuit of space defense technology, Shanahan explained.

“And why that, to me, is really great as a taxpayer is that we’re going to solve the same problem maybe once, instead of four or five times,” Shanahan said.

The agency also will work to take advantage of commercially developed space technology, Shanahan explained.

“If we think about how SpaceX has transformed getting to space, because it’s now much lower cost, people can put more satellites into space so that whole economics are changing,” Shanahan said.

“This is a reversal of, in the old days, (when) government would develop the technology and then commercial (enterprises) would adopt it,” Shanahan said. (The commercial world) has developed the technology, now we’ll tailor it to our military applications.”

http://www.srpressgazette.com/news/2018 ... 000-people
 
Ozair
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Re: U.S. Space Force - What could it look like?

Tue Nov 20, 2018 1:01 am

A budget analyst has come up with some numbers that appear to show that the USAF has been trumping up the additional budget required to make a “Space Force” a reality. Lots of politics will surround this now over the next two years but the important question, asked in the article, is whether this is really needed. If so, then the reasonably small sum or US$300-$500 million extra a year would be worth it.

Space Force could cost fraction of Air Force estimates

The Pentagon hasn’t released its official cost estimate to stand up a brand-new space service, but a top defense budget analyst has crunched the numbers and believes it may cost $550 million more per year for a Space Force — at most.

In order to add the headquarters staffing needed to run a Space Force, the Defense Department would need anywhere from an additional $300 million to $550 million per year on top of the money it already budgets for space personnel, operations and procurement, according to a new report by Todd Harrison of the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

All told, that amounts to a boost of $1.5 billion to a total of $2.7 billion over a five-year period.

That figure is roughly in line with Deputy Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan’s public statements last week that the initial costs of a Space Force could be as low as $5 billion and definitely within the “single digits” of billions of dollars.

And it’s a rebuke of the Air Force’s own estimate, signed off by Air Force Secretary Heather Wilson, which predicted almost $13 billion in additional cost over the first five years of the Space Force’s creation.

The Air Force’s estimate initially sent a wave of panic among members of Congress, but Harrison decried the Air Force figures as “malicious compliance” meant to kill the Space Force plan by overinflating its costs — a characterization he stands by.

“They were not asked to produce that cost estimate, and they did it with the largest possible scope, without sufficient caveats to let people know that that was much more than the cost of the Space Force,” he told reporters in a Nov. 19 briefing. “And they previously made it known that they don’t like this idea.”

Wilson, for her part, defended the Air Force’s cost estimate last week, saying it was scoped appropriately to reflect the wishes of President Donald Trump to create a completely independent space force.

“Whatever is put forward needs to implement the president’s proposal. What we put forward was in the cost estimates to implement a standalone department," she said Thursday. "Our estimate that we gave to a lot of people in the Pentagon in September was the cost of a fully fledged stand-alone department and also a unified combatant command.”

Wilson’s choice to include the new combatant command — U.S. Space Command — and new procurement organization, called the Space Development Agency, in its proposal is an important distinction from Harrison’s estimates, which include neither.

Nor does Harrison’s assessment include a near-term bill for creating a Space Force, though he believes that the costs for one-time items like designing a uniform, emblem and flag would be incidental.

“Most of this is just a simple matter of organization and whether or not you think that is needed. The added cost is, you know, a handful of F-35s, or less than the [Defense Department] audit” he joked. “I don’t think cost actually should be that big of a factor in their decisions. I think the bigger factor is whether or not people think it’s needed. That’s what the debate should be about.”

To create his cost estimate, Harrison put forth three different options of how a space service could be organized.

The first, a Space Corps, would function independently but fall under the Department of the Air Force, similar to the Marine Corps’ placement under the Department of the Navy. The Space Corps would be comprised of the entirety of the Air Force’s space units, known at the 14th Air Force. Harrison estimates a total cost of $11.3 billion per year for that option, with only $300 million in new funds needed per year.

The second option, termed “Space Force Lite,” includes all of the Air Force’s space units as well as the space functions of the Navy and Army: the Army’s 1st Space Brigade, the Navy’s Program Executive Office Space Systems and the Navy Satellite Operations Center at Naval Air Station Point Magu. For that concept, an additional $400 million would be needed for a total of $13.4 billion annually.

Finally, a “Space Force Heavy” would add in some functions from the Army and the U.S. Missile Defense Agency used for space situational awareness and midcourse missile intercept capabilities. That would cost $21.5 billion total per year, with $500 million in new funding necessary.

So where do the new costs come from? New headquarters staff, and for the Space Force options, staffing for the secretary of the Space Force, Harrison said.

To arrive at those numbers, he set a baseline of 500 personnel for headquarters staff and added 5 percent of the services’ anticipated workforce size — coincidentally, about the same ratio of Coast Guard personnel to its own headquarters staffing, Harrison said.

Much of the cost growth cited in the Air Force’s own estimate is linked to an increase of about 13,000 personnel for new headquarters staff, direct reporting units and forward-operating activities, a “Space Force element,” and more staff for U.S. Space Command.

Harrison criticized the service’s proposal as being unclear on the role those new billets would perform.

“The Air Force was either adding new activities — things that aren’t being done today — which is a separate question from creating a new service, so they should not included them; or they are not transferring over all of the people who do space-related jobs in the air forces,” Harrison said. “They could be assuming that they’re going to keep some of those people and not move them over.”

If that’s the case, it could rack up the Defense Department budget. Increasing the headquarters staff of the Space Force or U.S. Space Command is another potential way to increase costs, Harrison said, but Congress has some power to limit that by putting staffing limits in place.

Whether the Space Force becomes a reality will be up to Congress, which is the only part of government able to create a new military service. With the Democrats controlling the House, successful passage is a “coin toss” that will be dependent on the specific proposal put forward in Trump’s fiscal 2020 budget, and how much support it seemingly has in Defense Secretary Jim Mattis and Shanahan, Harrison said.

“How big of a scope do they envision? How disruptive is it going to be perceived as being? And I think another political factor, quite frankly is: Is this seen as being Trump’s Space Force, or is this something that the military is seen on get on board with?”

https://www.defensenews.com/space/2018/ ... estimates/

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