Updated: Switzerland deciding to buy F-35A fighter jets

art · Thu Oct 01, 2020 12:34 pm

As notified to Congress on Sept. 30, the price for the 40 Super Hornets offered to Switzerland is set at $7.45 billion, clearly exceeding the 6 billion Swiss francs at Jan. 2018 prices ($6.52 billion at today’s exchange rate) that Switzerland has earmarked for the purchase of its new fighters.

In contrast, the Congressional notification for the 40 F-35As offered to Switzerland sets their price at $6.58 billion, just $6 million over the Swiss budget and a difference that can be wiped out by daily exchange rate fluctuations.

https://www.defense-aerospace.com/artic ... ition.html

I'm baffled why has this been done. Can anyone explain?

SAS A340 · Thu Oct 01, 2020 3:10 pm

Did the same happen in Finland? I can only assume that politics is in full swing here... :stirthepot:

Ozair · Thu Oct 01, 2020 10:24 pm

art wrote:
As notified to Congress on Sept. 30, the price for the 40 Super Hornets offered to Switzerland is set at $7.45 billion, clearly exceeding the 6 billion Swiss francs at Jan. 2018 prices ($6.52 billion at today’s exchange rate) that Switzerland has earmarked for the purchase of its new fighters.

In contrast, the Congressional notification for the 40 F-35As offered to Switzerland sets their price at $6.58 billion, just $6 million over the Swiss budget and a difference that can be wiped out by daily exchange rate fluctuations.

https://www.defense-aerospace.com/artic ... ition.html

I'm baffled why has this been done. Can anyone explain?

How is this baffling, did you not read what I wrote just a couple of posts above about the same release from the DSCA? DSCA prices are top end and the actual price is generally 2/3 or 3/4s of the DSCA number. I've previously posted DSCA compared to actual contract figures multiple times that show that trend.

What is frankly more baffling is your expectation that Giovanni de Briganti is going to publish an unbias and factual statement. The statement you linked to have little basis in fact and even a small amount of research by him, or reading his own past articles on DSCA and subsequent contract agreements, would demonstrate the actual facts. For example in 2018 he published the following F-16 sale to Slovakia, https://www.defense-aerospace.com/artic ... vakia.html which listed the DSCA value at US$2.9 billion. The subsequent price at signature was then released here, https://www.defense-aerospace.com/artic ... f_16s.html at US$1.6 billion. (just slightly less than 2/3rd the DSCA price...)

So even on his own website he listed a US$2.9 billion DSCA release down to a contractural US$1.6 billion price. Perhaps instead of his baseless and bias claims on the US trying to steer Switzerland to a specific aircraft he could just report facts...

SAS A340 wrote:
Did the same happen in Finland? I can only assume that politics is in full swing here...

The DSCA have not released an approval for Finland for the SH or F-35 yet although I expect it is likely to come out in the next three to six months. What DSCA puts out though it somewhat meaningless, from a price perspective, other than what is included in their package calculations.

This therefore has nothing to do with "Politics" and everything to do with the standard practise of the DSCA and the FMS process.

art · Fri Oct 02, 2020 8:53 am

Ozair wrote:
art wrote:

I'm baffled why has this been done. Can anyone explain?

How is this baffling, did you not read what I wrote just a couple of posts above about the same release from the DSCA? DSCA prices are top end and the actual price is generally 2/3 or 3/4s of the DSCA number. I've previously posted DSCA compared to actual contract figures multiple times that show that trend.

Sorry, missed your post about approval for these offers.

Yes, I am aware that DSCA numbers are not final contract numbers. It remains a mystery to me that the number for the Super Hornet package is higher than the number for the F-35 package when (as far as I know) the flyaway cost of the former is considerably lower than the latter.

In 2019, Super Hornet maker Boeing won a $4-billion multi-year contract to buy 78 Super Hornets through FY 2021.

https://news.usni.org/2020/02/10/navy-c ... on-fighter

Ozair · Fri Oct 02, 2020 10:27 am

art wrote:

Yes, I am aware that DSCA numbers are not final contract numbers. It remains a mystery to me that the number for the Super Hornet package is higher than the number for the F-35 package when (as far as I know) the flyaway cost of the former is considerably lower than the latter.

In 2019, Super Hornet maker Boeing won a $4-billion multi-year contract to buy 78 Super Hornets through FY 2021.

https://news.usni.org/2020/02/10/navy-c ... on-fighter

The USN has operated the type for 20 years. They don't need to pay for any of the non-recurring costs associated with the airframe, no spares, nor training programs, no FMS fees, no vendor support etc.

If we consider the DSCA price for the Kuwait deal for 40 aircraft, although ended up only acquiring 28, was US$10.1 billion,

The estimated cost is $10.1 billion.

https://www.dsca.mil/major-arms-sales/g ... ft-support

or the Canadian SH initial approval for 18 aircraft,

The estimated total case value is $5.23 billion.

https://www.dsca.mil/major-arms-sales/g ... ft-support

You can see the inclusions at the links above but include aircraft, engines, radars, TGT pods, HMS, MIDS terminals, countermeasures, CATM missiles, pylons, launchers, radios, EW equipment, mission planning software etc.

Compared to Kuwait the Swiss seem to be getting a good deal although they likely require less contractor support and Boeing, after the USN cancelled the follow on Super Hornet order you quoted, might be in more of a mood for bargining. As for the F-35 price, it really shouldn't surprise as the aircraft is manufacturing over 140 a year now. Two years ago Belgium's F-35 DSCA notice was US$6.53 billion for 34 aircraft and a year ago Poland's DSCA for 32 F-35s was US$6.5 billion. I expect that Poland and Belgium will acquire support equipment and weapons as well as other capabilities and that inflates the cost but the Swiss also are benefiting from the high production rate and order stability.

texl1649 · Fri Oct 02, 2020 3:08 pm

Comparing packages of different volumes for different aircraft is very difficult, and the whole DSCA process is typical government byzantine accounting. The bottom line to me is the F-35 is at a unit fly-away cost of $80-85MM now, I believe. I doubt substantially the SH can be built, even by Boeing using it's new lean/digital processes, any cheaper, but it is likely the Gripen certainly can be.

The SH line is stable right now, but the USN is determined to cut production moving forward. They are only making two (or 3?) per month, and after 2025 it is unlikely new frames will be delivered to the USN/USMC.

https://news.usni.org/2020/02/10/navy-c ... on-fighter

Ozair · Fri Nov 20, 2020 5:30 am

LM and the US Government have submitted their bid for the Swiss competition. No indication of final offer price compared to the DSCA released a month ago but perhaps given the leaks from last time we may end up seeing the evaluation of the contenders anyway.

F-35 Proposal Submitted to Swiss Government

On Nov. 18, the U.S. government and Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT) submitted an F-35 proposal to the Swiss government in support of Switzerland’s New Fighter Aircraft (NFA) competition.

The F-35 proposal is a total package offering that includes up to 40 F-35A aircraft, a sustainment solution tailored to Swiss autonomy requirements, and a comprehensive training program.

The offering includes an industrial package providing Swiss industry substantial F-35 work opportunities. Should the F-35 be selected as the new fighter for Switzerland, this industrial work would take place in all Swiss regions. Swiss industry has the opportunity to compete for direct production of components for use on all F-35s produced, sustainment projects focused on supporting the Swiss Air Force and enhancing Swiss autonomy, and cyber security projects directly related to the F-35.

The offer uses the F-35 Global Support Solution for sustainment to ensure Switzerland benefits from the European F-35 economies of scale to realize lower sustainment costs for the Swiss Air Force. It also includes a six-month spares package to ensure the Swiss Air Force has the ability to conduct autonomous operations, if needed. Lockheed Martin is also offering an option for the assembly of four aircraft in Switzerland to ensure the Swiss Air Force and Swiss industry gain an understanding of how to maintain the F-35 airframe and its advanced capabilities for the life of the program.

“We are confident that our F-35 offer is the best and most affordable solution for the Swiss NFA competition,” said Greg Ulmer, F-35 Program vice president and general manager. “We are offering the only 5th generation fighter at the cost of 4th generation aircraft while offering Switzerland an aircraft that will protect Swiss sovereignty for decades to come.”

...

https://www.f35.com/news/detail/f-35-pr ... government

Ozair · Fri Nov 20, 2020 11:49 pm

The Swiss Federal Office for Defence Procurement has confirmed that all four vendors have submitted their final bids for the Air2030.

Air2030: Second proposals for new fighter aircraft and extended-range ground-based air defence systems received

On November 18, 2020, armasuisse received the second proposals for new fighter aircraft from the government authorities of the four potential manufacturers: Germany (Airbus Eurofighter), France (Dassault Rafale) and the USA (Boeing F/A-18 Super Hornet and Lockheed-Martin F-35A). In the second request for proposal, the companies contacted via the government authorities were requested to submit the most advantageous proposal for Switzerland.

The proposals include the following elements:
• prices for 36 and 40 aircraft, including defined logistics and weapons, as a binding starting point for the detailed negotiations with the selected candidate after the type selection
• offers for cooperation between the armed forces and the procurement authorities of Switzerland and those of the supplier country
• envisaged or already initiated offset projects

...

https://www.vbs.admin.ch/en/current/inf ... 81207.html

art · Sat Nov 21, 2020 9:46 am

Ozair wrote:
The Swiss Federal Office for Defence Procurement has confirmed that all four vendors have submitted their final bids for the Air2030.

...

The proposals include the following elements:
• prices for 36 and 40 aircraft, including defined logistics and weapons, as a binding starting point for the detailed negotiations with the selected candidate after the type selection
• offers for cooperation between the armed forces and the procurement authorities of Switzerland and those of the supplier country
• envisaged or already initiated offset projects

https://www.vbs.admin.ch/en/current/inf ... 81207.html

I wonder what weight is given to 'cooperation between the armed forces ... of Switzerland and those of the supplier country'. I presume that, due to their poximity, Dassault and Eurofighter are at an advantage here.

Noray · Sat Nov 21, 2020 9:05 pm

According to Aviation Week, Airbus is offering a new final assembly line for the Eurofighter in Switzerland where all 40 aircraft could be produced.

art wrote:
I wonder what weight is given to 'cooperation between the armed forces ... of Switzerland and those of the supplier country'. I presume that, due to their poximity, Dassault and Eurofighter are at an advantage here.

It could be a two-edged sword, since too much cooperation might put off many Swiss who uphold their neutrality.

Ozair · Sat Nov 21, 2020 11:02 pm

art wrote:
Ozair wrote:
The Swiss Federal Office for Defence Procurement has confirmed that all four vendors have submitted their final bids for the Air2030.

...

The proposals include the following elements:
• prices for 36 and 40 aircraft, including defined logistics and weapons, as a binding starting point for the detailed negotiations with the selected candidate after the type selection
• offers for cooperation between the armed forces and the procurement authorities of Switzerland and those of the supplier country
• envisaged or already initiated offset projects

https://www.vbs.admin.ch/en/current/inf ... 81207.html

I wonder what weight is given to 'cooperation between the armed forces ... of Switzerland and those of the supplier country'. I presume that, due to their poximity, Dassault and Eurofighter are at an advantage here.

I did a google search on Swiss Air Force exercises. Seems they travel to the UK every couple of years for training, work with the French and Germans and do participate in some European/NATO exercises such as exercise MAGDay this year that includes the USAF.

Further training was conducted over Northern Germany. The exercise tested the RAF’s ability to communicate with other national communication systems within the Nato alliance.

It also saw the participation of US and Dutch F-16 fighters and Swiss Air Force F18 Hornets.

https://www.airforce-technology.com/new ... -exercise/

I expect what they are really referring to though is maintenance and long term support of the platform. As with the F/A-18s where they participate in the global sustainment agreement the Swiss are probably seeking something similar here.

Noray wrote:
According to Aviation Week, Airbus is offering a new final assembly line for the Eurofighter in Switzerland where all 40 aircraft could be produced.

An interesting decision to offer local assembly. You would expect it comes with a higher cost compared to the other vendors offers and assume it is an all new line given the German line continues, the Italian line is manufacturing for Kuwait, Spain is talking about more local Eurofighters and the UK line is going for Qatar. Could they be offering to transfer the tooling from one of those lines, likely not Germany, to reduce cost once existing orders are delivered?

Ozair · Mon Nov 30, 2020 9:35 pm

DefenseNews article on the final offers for the Swiss competition.

Aircraft makers sweeten their offers in high-stakes Swiss warplane race

Four aircraft makers have submitted final offers for Switzerland’s $6.5 billion aircraft program, with Airbus and Lockheed Martin touting different approaches to assembling their planes locally.

...

https://www.defensenews.com/global/euro ... lane-race/

What LM and Airbus have proposed is already posted but here is what DefenseNews has reported about Boeing and Dassault.

Boeing, meanwhile, has positioned its offer of an F-18 Super Hornet fleet as a logical extension of Switzerland’s existing F-18 infrastructure. “As an F/A-18 operator, Switzerland will have the option to reuse up to 60 percent of existing physical and intellectual infrastructure, making the transition to a Super Hornet easier and more cost effective over the life of the aircraft,” the company said in a statement.

The aircraft offer, the statement added, would “easily fit” within Switzerland’s current F-18 operating budget.

The reference to cost comes after Swiss officials stressed that the fighter portion of the Air 2030 air defense modernization program includes a cost ceiling of 6 billion Swiss francs (U.S. $6.6 billion), with with an eye on potential price reductions along the way.

“Currently, Boeing is working with more than 100 current and new partners across Switzerland to identify the right opportunities for its New Fighter Aircraft industry plan,” the company said.

France’s Dassault, with its offer of the Rafale, is the only vendor keeping its cards close to its chest. Citing a commitment to confidentiality, a spokeswoman told Defense News the company had no plans to characterize its offer nor the “nature of the relationship” between the Swiss and French governments to that end.

...

Boeing is keen to diffuse the perception of the DSCA announcement being over the US$6.6 billion cost compared to their actual offer. Dassault is keeping quiet but I expect as with Belgium there will be a strong sales campaign at the political level.

Ozair · Sun Dec 13, 2020 10:14 pm

Article from Forbes talking about the Swiss fighter competition and specifically the F-35. It essentially suggests that the F-35 is too capable for the Swiss and they would be better placed buying something else. It then argues that although the F-35 is too capable it will also be the cheapest and that additional capability may come in handy over the life of the aircraft.

Switzerland Will Soon Select A New Fighter To Replace Its F-18s. The F-35 Would Be A Peculiar Choice.

Next summer, the Swiss government will choose one of four contenders to replace its ageing fleet of F-5 Tigers and F/A-18 Hornets by 2030: Airbus’ Eurofighter Typhoon, Dassault’s Rafale, Boeing’s F/A-18 Super Hornet, and Lockheed Martin’s LMT +1.8% F-35A. The F-35 is the only 5th generation option but given the small Alpine nation’s needs, it’s arguably an odd one.

Surrounded by five European nations, Switzerland has a total land border of 1,151 miles. At cruise speed (approximately 470 knots), an F-35A could fly north to south across the country in about 15 minutes and west to east in about 24 minutes. Swiss Air Force F/A-18s routinely do, fulfilling their air defense/air policing mission.

The country’s longstanding commitment to neutrality means its air force really only does air defense. What it primarily needs is an interceptor. Ironically, its F/A-18Cs are multi-role aircraft as are all those in the quartet vying to replace them, none more so than the F-35. That irony exists alongside a populace divided about acquiring any new fighters.

In 2014 the Swiss public voted to reject the purchase of Saab JAS-39 Gripens to replace the Hornets. The result was different this past September. But it was a nail-biter with 50.1% of the roughly three million who cast ballots voting “yea,” fewer than 9,000 more than those voting “nay,” for a measure setting aside $6.5 billion to buy 36 to 40 new aircraft.

Despite the green light, the naysayers have already singled out the F-35 with Swiss Social Democrat parliamentarian Roger Nordmann telling Swiss public television that it is “out of the question to buy the American F-35s, which are the most expensive.”

...

https://www.forbes.com/sites/erictegler ... 37dd4b36bd

I feel like Finland will go F-35 but I have never been sure about Switzerland, Rafale has always seemed like a strong bid so it will be very interesting to see how this all plays out.

Ozair · Fri Jan 01, 2021 10:05 pm

So in the context of their new fighter it is interesting to note that Switzerland have moved to 24/7 air policing via domestic fighter aircraft. Long the butt of jokes about "office hours" Switzerland now, as of 31st Dec 2020, have 24 hour coverage.

No more office hours for Swiss air policing missions

Until now, the Swiss Air Force was only able to police its airspace during “office hours”, meaning on weekdays from 8 a.m. to 5 p.m. with a 30-minute break during lunch.

The bizarre limitation came under fire in 2014, when an Ethiopian Airlines Boeing 767, flying from Addis Ababa to Milano, was hijacked and diverted to Geneva by its co-pilot. As the incident took place at 6 a.m., the flight had to be escorted by Italian Eurofighter Typhoon and French Mirage 2000 fighters.

To remedy the problem, the Swiss Air Force launched the PA24 program in 2015. The aim was to reach round-the-clock readiness of two armed F/A-18 Hornets at Payerne Air Base through several milestones. In 2017, the availability was extended to the weekend. In 2019, the alert period was extended from 6 a.m. to 10 p.m.

As of December 31, 2020, the project will finally reach its objective of 24/7 air policing. "In 2020, the PA24 project has already made it possible to carry out 15 hot missions and 290 live missions, thus greatly contributing to airspace security and the application of sovereignty over Swiss airspace," the Swiss Federal Department of Defence, Civil Protection and Sport said. “To finalize the project at the end of 2020, nearly 100 additional positions in total have been created at the Air Force, the Army Logistics Base and the Command Support Base.”

The increase in air police capacity over 24 hours should cost an additional 30 million francs (€27 million) per year.

...

https://www.aerotime.aero/26815-no-more ... g-missions

889091 · Sun Jan 03, 2021 5:28 pm

Those Swiss F/A-18 Hornets must have very low cycles/hours then...

art · Sun Jan 03, 2021 5:53 pm

889091 wrote:
Those Swiss F/A-18 Hornets must have very low cycles/hours then...

Good point, if it is the case.

cf100mk4 · Sun Jan 03, 2021 7:52 pm

shhhhh...don't tell Canada....having enough problems getting the raaf ones up and running.

Ozair · Sun Jan 03, 2021 8:32 pm

art wrote:
889091 wrote:
Those Swiss F/A-18 Hornets must have very low cycles/hours then...

Good point, if it is the case.

Yes the aircraft have relatively low hours but they have high fatigue for their age. As the Swiss don’t go on ops but do a lot of training (almost exclusively BFM/ACM) the aircraft have a lot of high G manoeuvre history and therefore have more fatigue for their age compared to Hornets from other operators.

flyingturtle · Sun Jan 03, 2021 8:55 pm

Ozair wrote:
art wrote:
889091 wrote:
Those Swiss F/A-18 Hornets must have very low cycles/hours then...

Good point, if it is the case.

Yes the aircraft have relatively low hours but they have high fatigue for their age. As the Swiss don’t go on ops but do a lot of training (almost exclusively BFM/ACM) the aircraft have a lot of high G manoeuvre history and therefore have more fatigue for their age compared to Hornets from other operators.

Yes, Ozair brought up a good and valid point. When RUAG built the F/A-18 under licence, their structure was already strengthened in anticipation of the more aggressive flying maneuvers. But since 2-3 years they are, one for one, undergoing a complete overhaul.

GDB · Mon Jan 04, 2021 2:29 pm

Some Swiss AF F-18's deployed to RAF Leeming for more varied training than allowed over their home territory;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kXJMMbx271A

ThePointblank · Tue Jan 05, 2021 1:12 am

flyingturtle wrote:
Ozair wrote:
art wrote:

Good point, if it is the case.

Yes the aircraft have relatively low hours but they have high fatigue for their age. As the Swiss don’t go on ops but do a lot of training (almost exclusively BFM/ACM) the aircraft have a lot of high G manoeuvre history and therefore have more fatigue for their age compared to Hornets from other operators.

Yes, Ozair brought up a good and valid point. When RUAG built the F/A-18 under licence, their structure was already strengthened in anticipation of the more aggressive flying maneuvers. But since 2-3 years they are, one for one, undergoing a complete overhaul.

The problem is that because certain structural members on their F/A-18's were strengthened, it shifted the fatigue loads onto other parts of the aircraft that are now seeing fatigue issues much earlier than expected.

Generally, not a good idea to be strengthening structural members on an aircraft to handle increased loads; it causes problems elsewhere on the aircraft where you haven't strengthened the airframe, often areas that are hard to inspect and repair. And you are often SOL for assistance from the OEM.

Max Q · Fri Jan 08, 2021 11:05 pm

You’d think an aircraft built to withstand the rigors of carrier operation wouldn’t need any strengthening

ThePointblank · Sat Jan 09, 2021 12:09 pm

Max Q wrote:
You’d think an aircraft built to withstand the rigors of carrier operation wouldn’t need any strengthening

The Hornet was originally built with a service life expectancy of only 6,000 hours, and many Hornets have now flown well past that mark.

94717 · Sat Jan 09, 2021 5:38 pm

I have a feeling that most people here do not understand that in case of conflict Swedish airforce after 1967 considered that the most dangerous place for an airplane and its pilots in case of war was an airbase.

It therefore created a system of "Johansson" airfields including roads where the airforce was going to move around between after each mission.

In case of tensed relationship with Soviet the airplanes was sent out in the evening and only the pilots agreed just before takeoff where each pilot went in order to avoid leaks. They slept at the local farmer and in the morning called in and told where they were.

Max Q · Sat Jan 09, 2021 11:40 pm

ThePointblank wrote:
Max Q wrote:
You’d think an aircraft built to withstand the rigors of carrier operation wouldn’t need any strengthening

The Hornet was originally built with a service life expectancy of only 6,000 hours, and many Hornets have now flown well past that mark.

Exactly

mxaxai · Tue Jun 01, 2021 2:56 pm

Swiss parties are threatening to hold another referendum if a US fighter - either F-18 or F-35 - is chosen.

SP, Greens and GSoA want to prevent US fighter jets with a popular initiative if necessary

An alliance of the SP [social democrats], the Greens and the Group for a Switzerland without an Army (GSoA) wants to block the purchase of American fighter jets with a referendum. This is in case the Federal Council decides in favor of one of the US types.
...
On Sept. 27, 2020, Swiss voters had narrowly approved the 6 billion franc procurement of new fighter jets with 50.1 percent in favor. Unlike the failed Gripen procurement in 2014, the electorate only made a decision in principle. No vote was taken on the type of aircraft. This choice lies with the Federal Council.
...
"The U.S. models are too expensive and too problematic in terms of data protection", GSoA, SP and Greens wrote in the statement. "Switzerland risks having the U.S. military in the cockpit, so to speak."

"In view of the Corona crisis, our society has other priorities than the procurement of overpriced and oversized luxury fighter jets", Green Zurich National Councilor Marionna Schlatter argues in the communiqué. "We don't need Ferraris in the air, but more investments in good health care, real climate protection and measures against unemployment."

They - SP, Greens and GSoA - were already the main supporters of the first referendum. The GSoA also helped initiate the Gripen referendum.

https://www.nzz.ch/schweiz/sp-gruene-un ... ld.1626804 [German]

seahawk · Tue Jun 01, 2021 3:09 pm

Great news. Hope the succeed and no money is wasted on that pointless purchase.

art · Tue Jun 01, 2021 4:22 pm

"The U.S. models are too expensive and too problematic in terms of data protection", GSoA, SP and Greens wrote in the statement. "Switzerland risks having the U.S. military in the cockpit, so to speak."

I can understand the political control aspect but I don't follow 'too expensive' for SuperHornet. I think that type will be the cheapest overall.

LHAM · Tue Jun 01, 2021 6:29 pm

So unless the Swiss government wants yet another referendum delaying things even more they will have to choose between the Eurofighter and the Rafale.

CRJockey · Wed Jun 02, 2021 4:44 pm

LHAM wrote:
So unless the Swiss government wants yet another referendum delaying things even more they will have to choose between the Eurofighter and the Rafale.

Which both would be more than capable for the Swiss requirement. So, good for them.

mxaxai · Thu Jun 03, 2021 10:02 pm

LHAM wrote:
So unless the Swiss government wants yet another referendum delaying things even more they will have to choose between the Eurofighter and the Rafale.

TBH a referendum is still possible even if they choose one of those. All you need is 50,000 signatures.

WaywardMemphian · Fri Jun 04, 2021 6:57 pm

And here I was thinking the Swiss were going train with F 35s here in Arkansas.

https://talkbusiness.net/2021/06/fort-s ... ic-impact/

art · Mon Jun 14, 2021 10:58 pm

French language paper 'Le Matin' speculates that Rafale is the likely choice.

Après les menaces d’initiative populaire lancée par la gauche en cas de choix américain, et sans doute pour d’autres raisons stratégiques, personne ne croit plus vraiment à Berne aux chances des avions américains. Cela devrait donc se jouer avec une solution européenne.

Loosely translated, after threats of a popular reaction prompted by the left in case of an American aircraft being chosen, and doubtless for other strategic reasons, nobody in Berne any longer believes that the American aircraft stand a chance. This should therefore play out with a Euopean solution.

https://www.lematin.ch/story/le-rafale- ... 7143171697

PS Article further surmises that there are hints the choice will be Rafale and a decision is expected to be taken this month.

flyingturtle · Mon Jun 21, 2021 4:07 pm

According to some leaks, the Federal Council decided to buy F-35:

https://www.srf.ch/news/schweiz/endspur ... fte-kaufen

The report say that two of the Councillors had serious doubts because buying an US jet wouldn't make European politics easier, e.g. buying weapon systems from French manufacturers.

art · Mon Jun 21, 2021 5:37 pm

If this proves to be true (F-35 chosen), will there be the public outcry that Le Matin reported was in danger of occurring if a US jet were chosen?

mileduets · Mon Jun 21, 2021 8:11 pm

art wrote:
If this proves to be true (F-35 chosen), will there be the public outcry that Le Matin reported was in danger of occurring if a US jet were chosen?

Blattman, a former chief of Swiss armed forces, already put his concerns to paper in a 9 page analysis today. He was obviously already informed about the decision. (Text in German) https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ms-pMdj4yS8chNZoXGSULkj3dMjTlrMq/view
With the leak and the two pronged attack from the left parties and army / air force circles who were always favoring the Rafale, this could become tricky again.
Amherd will have to be very convincing in her presentation of the winner of the fighter competition.

flyingturtle · Mon Jun 21, 2021 9:45 pm

mileduets wrote:
art wrote:
If this proves to be true (F-35 chosen), will there be the public outcry that Le Matin reported was in danger of occurring if a US jet were chosen?

Blattman, a former chief of Swiss armed forces, already put his concerns to paper in a 9 page analysis today. He was obviously already informed about the decision. (Text in German) https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ms-pMdj4yS8chNZoXGSULkj3dMjTlrMq/view
With the leak and the two pronged attack from the left parties and army / air force circles who were always favoring the Rafale, this could become tricky again.
Amherd will have to be very convincing in her presentation of the winner of the fighter competition.

This report by Blattmann is very damning. He says that the Federal Council:
- Grossly underestimates operational and maintenance costs. He expects 12% of the purchase costs will be spent every year just on flying and maintaining them.
- Neglects the purchase of F-35 weapons. If F-35 are bought, then the scenario would be a similarly equipped country attacking us. And they will mount an attack leading to attrition, both in terms of aircraft and weapons. One can't buy weapons in a conflict...

He argues for keeping the F-18s for air police duty and buying no fighters, while building up a serious ground-based air defense that adresses both drones, cruise missiles as well as other airborne threats (basically the Israel model, where older jets carry out most of the missions). This would be the cheapest option, which frees up finances for a big and serious development in 2025, 2030 or even later.

SeamanBeaumont · Mon Jun 21, 2021 9:57 pm

mileduets wrote:
art wrote:
If this proves to be true (F-35 chosen), will there be the public outcry that Le Matin reported was in danger of occurring if a US jet were chosen?

Blattman, a former chief of Swiss armed forces, already put his concerns to paper in a 9 page analysis today. He was obviously already informed about the decision. (Text in German) https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ms-pMdj4yS8chNZoXGSULkj3dMjTlrMq/view
With the leak and the two pronged attack from the left parties and army / air force circles who were always favoring the Rafale, this could become tricky again.
Amherd will have to be very convincing in her presentation of the winner of the fighter competition.

Storm in a teacup. Some important things to remember here.

One - Last contest the Gripen was rejected by the Swiss public primarily because they wanted a better aircraft, not settling for the least capable in the contest.

Two – The Swiss have been operating US aircraft for 43 years (if you ignore the P-51s from the late 40s), the first F-5 arrived in 1978 and they have operated the F-18 since the middle 90s. The Swiss operating a US aircraft is hardly new or different.

Three – This really demonstrates the superiority of the F-35 platform. If the Swiss who had every reason to not select it have gone F-35 then it is clear the tactical advantage it provides for Defensive Counter Air as well as the value of a high production rate and large user base being enough to counter the perceived political issues and a whole lot of uninformed media…

SeamanBeaumont · Mon Jun 21, 2021 11:28 pm

flyingturtle wrote:
This report by Blattmann is very damning. He says that the Federal Council:
- Grossly underestimates operational and maintenance costs. He expects 12% of the purchase costs will be spent every year just on flying and maintaining them.
- Neglects the purchase of F-35 weapons. If F-35 are bought, then the scenario would be a similarly equipped country attacking us. And they will mount an attack leading to attrition, both in terms of aircraft and weapons. One can't buy weapons in a conflict...

He argues for keeping the F-18s for air police duty and buying no fighters, while building up a serious ground-based air defense that adresses both drones, cruise missiles as well as other airborne threats (basically the Israel model, where older jets carry out most of the missions). This would be the cheapest option, which frees up finances for a big and serious development in 2025, 2030 or even later.

Did this Blattmann guy do any research? The USAF per hour cost may be high but we don’t hear the same reports coming from Norway or Australia or Italy etc. Perhaps the Swiss was able to negotiate a fixed cost for flight hour of the aircraft and LM eats everything above that?

Also the weapons the aircraft uses are the same as the current aircraft. Even if the Rafale was chosen which I think was the other favourite it would have required a whole new set of weapons that aren’t even compatible with the Hornet fleet.

I guess Swiss could have kept the old hornets around, not sure it would cost less in the end given they would become a lonely operator, but that is an academic argument that is a bit hard to justify after you have run a multi year costly campaign to find a replacement aircraft and don’t like the result.

His other plan doesn’t make sense either, missiles aren’t a viable substitute for a fighter aircraft. I’m not sure what else will come in 2025, 2030 or even later that will be cheaper?

Leovinus · Tue Jun 22, 2021 6:00 am

flyingturtle wrote:
mileduets wrote:
art wrote:
If this proves to be true (F-35 chosen), will there be the public outcry that Le Matin reported was in danger of occurring if a US jet were chosen?

Blattman, a former chief of Swiss armed forces, already put his concerns to paper in a 9 page analysis today. He was obviously already informed about the decision. (Text in German) https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ms-pMdj4yS8chNZoXGSULkj3dMjTlrMq/view
With the leak and the two pronged attack from the left parties and army / air force circles who were always favoring the Rafale, this could become tricky again.
Amherd will have to be very convincing in her presentation of the winner of the fighter competition.

This report by Blattmann is very damning. He says that the Federal Council:
- Grossly underestimates operational and maintenance costs. He expects 12% of the purchase costs will be spent every year just on flying and maintaining them.
- Neglects the purchase of F-35 weapons. If F-35 are bought, then the scenario would be a similarly equipped country attacking us. And they will mount an attack leading to attrition, both in terms of aircraft and weapons. One can't buy weapons in a conflict...

He argues for keeping the F-18s for air police duty and buying no fighters, while building up a serious ground-based air defense that adresses both drones, cruise missiles as well as other airborne threats (basically the Israel model, where older jets carry out most of the missions). This would be the cheapest option, which frees up finances for a big and serious development in 2025, 2030 or even later.

Considering the nations size the missile shield alternative sounds like a prudent and economical way forward. Does Switzerland have exercises/military agreements with European nations with which an ageing air fleet might suffer from increasing incompatibility unless a new fighter is purchased soon?

Naincompetent · Tue Jun 22, 2021 6:58 am

Leovinus wrote:
Does Switzerland have exercises/military agreements with European nations with which an ageing air fleet might suffer from increasing incompatibility unless a new fighter is purchased soon?

The Swiss Air force used to work office hours, 8 to 17 with a 30 minute lunch break five days a week ... The rest of the day, air Police would be performed by neighboring countries such as France or Italy...
They've been back to 24/7 just from the beginning of the year!
So they do have military agreements... And they're surrounded by very peaceful countries!
A land based defense system is also included in the air2030 procurement for $2b (vs 6.5for the aircrafts)
The Swiss do have to modernize their fleet because of maintenance and compatibility issues, is is not clear that they need all the capabilities of the F35 when those of the Gripen would have been enough (it was rejected by referendum, not by the military)

art · Tue Jun 22, 2021 7:09 am

So, is Switzerland heading for

F-35 selection
Referendum on that choice
F-35 rejected by referendum
Rafale selected as the alternative
Possible referendum on Rafale as choice
Rafale accepted in possible referendum

??

Naincompetent · Tue Jun 22, 2021 7:56 am

Maybe
With the provisio that referendum results are notoriously hard to predict...

flyingturtle · Tue Jun 22, 2021 8:36 am

SeamanBeaumont wrote:
flyingturtle wrote:
This report by Blattmann is very damning. He says that the Federal Council:
- Grossly underestimates operational and maintenance costs. He expects 12% of the purchase costs will be spent every year just on flying and maintaining them.
- Neglects the purchase of F-35 weapons. If F-35 are bought, then the scenario would be a similarly equipped country attacking us. And they will mount an attack leading to attrition, both in terms of aircraft and weapons. One can't buy weapons in a conflict...

He argues for keeping the F-18s for air police duty and buying no fighters, while building up a serious ground-based air defense that adresses both drones, cruise missiles as well as other airborne threats (basically the Israel model, where older jets carry out most of the missions). This would be the cheapest option, which frees up finances for a big and serious development in 2025, 2030 or even later.

Did this Blattmann guy do any research?

...

He was the chief of the Swiss armed forces until December 2016. He surely knows one thing or two about fighter jets.

art · Tue Jun 22, 2021 10:02 am

flyingturtle wrote:
This report by Blattmann is very damning. He says that the Federal Council:
- Grossly underestimates operational and maintenance costs. He expects 12% of the purchase costs will be spent every year just on flying and maintaining them.
- Neglects the purchase of F-35 weapons. If F-35 are bought, then the scenario would be a similarly equipped country attacking us. And they will mount an attack leading to attrition, both in terms of aircraft and weapons. One can't buy weapons in a conflict...

He argues for keeping the F-18s for air police duty and buying no fighters, while building up a serious ground-based air defense that adresses both drones, cruise missiles as well as other airborne threats (basically the Israel model, where older jets carry out most of the missions). This would be the cheapest option, which frees up finances for a big and serious development in 2025, 2030 or even later.

About scrapping procurement of new fighters and carrying on with F-18, how long could the F-18's be used before operational costs rose to an unacceptable level? I wonder if buying up Finland/Canada's frames and spares as they become available would buy 10 years before replacement fighters had to be procured. In that time I would expect a couple of new possible candidates to appear on the scene:. India's Medium Weight Fighter and a fighter version of the T--7A.

MWF (roughly comparable to Gripen E) should be in Indian Air Force service by 2030 and cost less than Gripen E. If Switzerland opted for a simple air policing requirement, a fighter version of T-7A should be available at a low cost both to buy and to operate.

seahawk · Tue Jun 22, 2021 10:04 am

Probably the elegant way to buy nothing.

philzh · Tue Jun 22, 2021 2:48 pm

SeamanBeaumont wrote:
Did this Blattmann guy do any research?

This Blattmann guy would be the Swiss equivalent of that Dunford dude in the US. As such, he's certainly utterly uninformed.

philzh · Tue Jun 22, 2021 3:03 pm

flyingturtle wrote:
This report by Blattmann is very damning.

Very damning indeed, ans also outspoken and convincing.

flyingturtle · Tue Jun 22, 2021 3:13 pm

philzh wrote:
SeamanBeaumont wrote:
Did this Blattmann guy do any research?

This Blattmann guy would be the Swiss equivalent of that Dunford dude in the US. As such, he's certainly utterly uninformed.

No, not really. Dunford - as well as the other members of the Joint Chiefs of Staff - had/have a strictly advisory role, while Blattmann had a command. And as the Swiss army is rather small, information is shared more easily. Especially over informal channels.

mileduets · Tue Jun 22, 2021 7:48 pm

SeamanBeaumont wrote:
Did this Blattmann guy do any research? The USAF per hour cost may be high but we don’t hear the same reports coming from Norway or Australia or Italy etc. Perhaps the Swiss was able to negotiate a fixed cost for flight hour of the aircraft and LM eats everything above that?

Also the weapons the aircraft uses are the same as the current aircraft. Even if the Rafale was chosen which I think was the other favourite it would have required a whole new set of weapons that aren’t even compatible with the Hornet fleet.

I guess Swiss could have kept the old hornets around, not sure it would cost less in the end given they would become a lonely operator, but that is an academic argument that is a bit hard to justify after you have run a multi year costly campaign to find a replacement aircraft and don’t like the result.

His other plan doesn’t make sense either, missiles aren’t a viable substitute for a fighter aircraft. I’m not sure what else will come in 2025, 2030 or even later that will be cheaper?

As a former chief of staff and air defence general I'm sure Blattmann is still pretty well informed, also informally by former collegues involved in the procurment process. N.b.: It was in his time as chief of staff that the Gripen got selected (and later voted down by the public).

His arguments somehow do make sense. Switzerland has neglected ground based air defence lately - the replacement process for the Rapier and Stinger missiles as well as the Oerlikon Bührle 35mm / Skyguard system has been pushed back repeatedly. A functioning drone / missile defence seems more urgent today and in the next few years than fighter jets (other than in an air policing role).

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