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bikerthai
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Re: USAF Considering New Build F-15X

Wed Jun 12, 2019 1:27 pm

Spar wrote:
It should be obvious that when Shanahan was hired in early 2017 (long before the F-15EX proposal) Shanahan was to be the technical expert in aviation matters.


Believe me, becoming a VP manager of an Aerospace Corporation, does not make you an expert in aviation. By the time you get to be VP, the relevant knowledge with advancing technology have passed you by. You do however become good at running a corporation with some knowledge of aviation, which does not necessarily help you manage the other two larger part of the Arm Forces (Navy and Army). Shanahan was hired because he's a yes man, and has the ability to manage an organization efficiently, not because he is Boeing or is necessarily an expert in aviation.

bt
Intelligent seeks knowledge. Enlightened seeks wisdom.
 
Spar
Posts: 187
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Re: USAF Considering New Build F-15X

Wed Jun 12, 2019 1:47 pm

bikerthai wrote:
Shanahan was hired because he's a yes man
Shanahan was selected because of Bolton
Trump is having second thought about it
Shanahan told the rest of the Arm Force to be a political, after the McCain incident.

How do you know these things? Where do you get this kind of information?
 
Ozair
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Re: USAF Considering New Build F-15X

Wed Jun 12, 2019 2:13 pm

bikerthai wrote:

And so was this. We know that this will not be an issue once a hypersonic missile is developed that will fit in an F-35. However we are not there yet. How long will it be till we get there?

BT why is this necessary? The F-35 has two external pylons rated to 5000 lbs. They are perfectly capable of loading anything up to a GBU-28 (if they chose to integrate it). I don't understand the logic behind restricting an F-35 to internal bay use for Hypersonics while the F-15EX has use of external pylons and no internal bay.

bikerthai wrote:
Reading between the lines I can only surmise that a fringe benefit of getting a few EX would be to get a beefed up frame with new engines that when you strip away all the excess, you can use the platform to develop the weapon. Note that in the development stage, you will have big missiles and you want to push those missile as far into the Mach envelope as possible before release. You don't want to pull the F-22 from front line duties to do these experiment. God forbid if something go wrong and you lose the airframe as well. Experimenting is dangerous.

That doesn't make a lot of sense either. Aircraft go through development and integration programs all the time. Why would the F-15 or F-35 having these missiles integrated by any different or more dangerous to any other airframe? You also only need one aircraft to undertake the trials, not a fleet and the USAF has specific airframes, and units, dedicated to doing this work.

bikerthai wrote:
For development, the F-35 would also be not useful unless Ozair can tell me that the F-35 in a clean configuration with one huge missile can hit Mach 2 without shaking apart. Isn't it true that at Mach+, its down to the shear power of your engine(s)?

The F-35 is limited to M1.6 so it isn't going M2 in its current form ever. Neither though is the F-15EX which with a large hypersonic missile payload almost certainly won't get above M2 if even near it. Frankly, the solution is to fit an additional booster on the hypersonic missile and launch them from B-52s which have the loiter time to support hypersonic missile use in a dynamic targeting environment. The F-15EX is likely to be a significant drain on A2A refuelling resources and be less flexible across the battlespace for that role type.
 
Ozair
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Re: USAF Considering New Build F-15X

Wed Jun 12, 2019 2:16 pm

bikerthai wrote:
Spar wrote:
It should be obvious that when Shanahan was hired in early 2017 (long before the F-15EX proposal) Shanahan was to be the technical expert in aviation matters.


Believe me, becoming a VP manager of an Aerospace Corporation, does not make you an expert in aviation. By the time you get to be VP, the relevant knowledge with advancing technology have passed you by. You do however become good at running a corporation with some knowledge of aviation, which does not necessarily help you manage the other two larger part of the Arm Forces (Navy and Army). Shanahan was hired because he's a yes man, and has the ability to manage an organization efficiently, not because he is Boeing or is necessarily an expert in aviation.

bt

He also had little to do with BDS other than RW work. His knowledge of the F-15 program and the specific aircraft's capabilities would be limited at best.
 
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bikerthai
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Re: USAF Considering New Build F-15X

Wed Jun 12, 2019 5:53 pm

Ozair wrote:
Aircraft go through development and integration programs all the time. Why would the F-15 or F-35 having these missiles integrated by any different or more dangerous to any other airframe?


Development and Integration occupies different part of the timeline. Launching from a B-52 and an F-15 would also occupy different part of the development time line. If you are doing a step by step progression, it is safer to use an intermediate platform after the '52 before strapping it on a '35. If what you say about the F-15 at M2 with a hypersonic missile is true, then it would be moot.. I'm not ready to dismiss that just yet :optimist:

bt
Intelligent seeks knowledge. Enlightened seeks wisdom.
 
Ozair
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Re: USAF Considering New Build F-15X

Wed Jun 12, 2019 7:14 pm

bikerthai wrote:

Development and Integration occupies different part of the timeline. Launching from a B-52 and an F-15 would also occupy different part of the development time line.

That would be integration those integrations onto the platform can be done independently from each other.

bikerthai wrote:
If you are doing a step by step progression, it is safer to use an intermediate platform after the '52 before strapping it on a '35.

There is no logic to that. Having a platform in the middle of them isn't necessary, there isn't a complexity step between an F-15 and an F-35. Both platforms will be UAI compliant by the time a hypersonic missile is available and from that point the integration is just the hardpoint and drop testing.


bikerthai wrote:
If what you say about the F-15 at M2 with a hypersonic missile is true, then it would be moot.. I'm not ready to dismiss that just yet :optimist:

bt

It is clear right from the charts I posted. The EX isn't going to magically increase the capability of the airframe to bridge that gap. It will in fact likely be the heaviest Eagle to date given the additional systems going in with marginally better engines.
 
estorilm
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Re: USAF Considering New Build F-15X

Wed Jun 12, 2019 9:35 pm

I'm so split on this thing I haven't found the energy to quantify anything with a post since they announced the go-ahead for the program.

Either way you slice it, I feel like it's still a hand-out for Boeing who had been struggling to secure contracts lately.

Are there aging C/D models out there that should be replaced ASAP as our principal (numerically-speaking) front-line air superiority fighter around the country (and indeed, the world)? Sure.. however it's almost 2020 - do we want to be replacing these aircraft with designs dating back to the '70s when the alternative is something straight out of the future? I really don't think so. This argument is compounded by the FACT (yes, I said it.. fact) that current-build F-35A's are rolling off the line cheaper than this initial batch of F-15X's is going to cost. Everyone throws development costs into the per-aircraft cost, so it's only fair that the 15X takes the same hit initially - actually it's even more fair since it's INCREDIBLY UNLIKELY that this plane sees large production numbers. Actually it's impossible.

Plus side? Okay it's got a different assembly line - which conceivably isn't maxed-out like the F-35 lines are, but WTH - it's going to take years to get any sizable number of aircraft out of Boeing's lines for our jet (and even then, that's after R&D/dev/testing schedules and delays). By then you could have dumped the same amount of money into maximizing the F-35's lines, bringing down costs for contracts that the USA (and many other countries) are already investing in, PLUS the aircraft you're trying to supplement and/or replace with this F-15X budget.

I don't even want to get into capabilities - there's a very small list of things the 15 can do better than the 35. Most people in this thread focus on utility-type missions such as ASAT and missile trucks... yet we're replacing C/D models which currently fulfill the role of air superiority fighters. In an air superiority role, these X/EX's would be shot down at an alarming ratio versus F-35's, which is my point at the end of the day. Replace the air superiority fighter with a plane that's better at it. If you need to do something else - get something else to do it, but don't keep pretending just to keep the program alive.

I'd be ALL IN 100% if the thing cost $60m or so (aka significantly cheaper than an F-35) - the price would justify the lack of capability if we could offset in numbers and flexibility - but it's just never going to happen.

I even talked to a bunch of ANG F-15 C drivers at Joint Base Andrews air show a couple months ago when we flew the Avenger in there, and they were REALLY excited about the 15X program, but were the first to admit that there isn't TOO much of a speed advantage once range (ie drop tanks) and external stores or tanks were thrown into the equation - versus the F-35. There is some advantage though.

Even got to hang out for a bit... (this thing was built the year I was born in 1984! Looked immaculate for what it's worth though.)

Image For some reason the img won't display.. http://hickoryhillwv.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/IMG_3990-e1560375330681.jpg
 
Spar
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Re: USAF Considering New Build F-15X

Wed Jun 12, 2019 10:28 pm

estorilm wrote:
Are there aging C/D models out there that should be replaced ASAP as our principal (numerically-speaking) front-line air superiority fighter around the country (and indeed, the world)? Sure..

Not really ASAP. They have seven or eight years left in them before they age out so to speak.

No hurry.

Another thing. They don't all have to get the same treatment. Possibly a few squadrons could get new wings etc and the rest converted to F-35.
 
estorilm
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Re: USAF Considering New Build F-15X

Fri Jun 14, 2019 3:23 pm

Spar wrote:
estorilm wrote:
Are there aging C/D models out there that should be replaced ASAP as our principal (numerically-speaking) front-line air superiority fighter around the country (and indeed, the world)? Sure..

Not really ASAP. They have seven or eight years left in them before they age out so to speak.

No hurry.

Another thing. They don't all have to get the same treatment. Possibly a few squadrons could get new wings etc and the rest converted to F-35.

True, but why dump money into them at all - keep the serviceable aircraft flying and replace the rest with F-35's - that's my point.

"Worst case" you can replace them with some with F-15X's - but my issue with this approach is that it essentially doesn't address everyone's excuse or reasoning since they won't come on-line in time to replace the "desperately needed" aircraft. So what are we doing instead? Everything - repairing current C/Ds, continuing less-than-optimal production rates of the F-35 (costing $$$) AND embarking on a NEW fighter program that offers neither production advantages (talking only a few aircraft for the first year or so) nor cost advantages (for the hundredth time, this thing is NOT going to come in cheaper than a mature F-35A costs today - even though it's significantly less capable and less survivable as well!)

Mark my words, by the time we reach any sort of respectable or even remotely sustainable production rate of the F-15X/EX, it'll be canned since it's obsolete (which, honestly.. it is) - we have other aircraft to serve as missile-trucks. Or throw pylons on F-35A's instead, they have nearly the same 20,000lb payload in this config. The difference is that if you reconfig and strip them down, the same exact aircraft is ALSO a 5th gen / first-strike premier fighter/attack platform for the highest-threat environments in the world.

So where does that leave us? I guess with this bizarre ASAT mission a'netters keep bringing up. Yes we're going to spend billions developing a new model for ASAT - something an SM-3/ Aegis destroyer can accomplish, or likely a B-52.

Again - just doesn't make sense to me. The only thing I'm left with is the USAF (err US govt, since the USAF has publicly stated it doesn't want this plane) throwing Boeing a (nother) bone.
 
Spar
Posts: 187
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Re: USAF Considering New Build F-15X

Fri Jun 14, 2019 8:01 pm

estorilm wrote:
Spar wrote:
Possibly a few squadrons could get new wings etc and the rest converted to F-35.
why dump money into them at all .
Flexibility. It may be that by 2040 some NG units may be converted to another type and would never need the F-35. It's just a option to be considered.
estorilm wrote:
"Worst case" you can replace them with some with F-15X's.
That is the worst case. The EX costs 70 million more than a re-winged C model and has effectively zero added capability. There is no logical reason to build an F-15EX.
estorilm wrote:
So what are we doing instead? Everything - repairing current C/Ds, continuing less-than-optimal production rates of the F-35 (costing $$$) AND embarking on a NEW fighter program that offers neither production advantages.
The current DoD plan doesn't include SLEPing the current F-15s. In fact, all the propaganda articles we see in the DoD/Boeing favorable media don't even mention that as a possibility. That's been swept under the rug.
estorilm wrote:
Mark my words, by the time we reach any sort of respectable or even remotely sustainable production rate of the F-15X/EX, it'll be canned since it's obsolete.
And that can happen just weeks after the next president is sworn in in 2021. We could wind up stuck with one point one billion dollar's worth of odd ball F-15s without any purpose whatsoever. And an expensive contract with Boeing that has to be cancelled.
estorilm wrote:
So where does that leave us? I guess with this bizarre ASAT mission a'netters keep bringing up. Yes we're going to spend billions developing a new model for ASAT - something an SM-3/ Aegis destroyer can accomplish, or likely a B-52.
It was me that fed the latest longest discussion about ASAT. What I came out of that with is that while the SM-3 really isn't up to the job if we wanted to actually knock down someone else's sat network, there is nothing that indicates that the F-15EX is meant to be a part of an actual offensive ASAT capability. Same with the hypersonic missile delivery. It also doesn't seem reasonable to think that the national Guard would be given these kinds of missions; and anyway, why couldn't the F-35 do either of these jobs?
 
SuperiorPilotMe
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Re: USAF Considering New Build F-15X

Sat Jun 15, 2019 9:05 pm

keesje wrote:
Well, Shanahan overcame a major hurdle when an internal ethics investigation cleared him of allegations that he promoted his former employer, Boeing, and disparaged its competitors in official discussions. He probably will be careful now.


I still feel that’s the case and honestly I think this finding shows just how much power is being concentrated in one particular office of one particular branch associated with one particularly alledgedly elected individual. But that is neither here nor there.
Stop the stupids!- Claus Kellerman
 
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bikerthai
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Re: USAF Considering New Build F-15X

Tue Jun 18, 2019 6:28 pm

Well, Shanahan is out. We will see if the F-15EX buy have any legs.

bt
Intelligent seeks knowledge. Enlightened seeks wisdom.

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