ThePointblank
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Re: The U.S. has threatened to expel Turkey from the F-35

Fri May 24, 2019 9:02 am

Ozair wrote:
jupiter2 wrote:
^^

I do believe the Turks may end up being very disappointed if they believe they won't be denied their F 35's.

Agree 100%. For all their bluster as the article says all they have paid is just over a billion, compared to the 50 odd billion the US has paid and that is before they factor in acquisition. Turkey has already had about that amount for industrial work anyway so the ledger is very square.

And it's not like other buyers are not champing at the bits to get more work; Japan has more F-35's planned and under purchase than the Turks and they would love to have a larger workshare.
 
neutronstar73
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Re: The U.S. has threatened to expel Turkey from the F-35

Sun May 26, 2019 4:23 pm

Turkey should be kicked out of the F-35 program. If they want to court the Russians and act like they can play the US against them to get what they want, then let them choose the S-400 and the Su-57. If they want to align themselves with a country that has the GDP of a gas station in Italy, then let them. Erdogan will find himself out on his ear when he sees how fast that economy collapses if the West shuns Turkey for a bit.
 
tu204
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Re: The U.S. has threatened to expel Turkey from the F-35

Mon May 27, 2019 4:15 pm

Good lesson for anyone thinking about participating in a project with the US though.

Pretty sure there wasn't anything in the F-35 contract about also being forced to buy any substandard equipment for inflated prices (Patriot). Turkey made a decision to buy a better product and for a better price (S-400) and are now being threatened for it. Nice.
I do not dream about movie stars, they must dream about me for I am real and they are not. - Alexander Popov
 
Ozair
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Re: The U.S. has threatened to expel Turkey from the F-35

Mon May 27, 2019 5:08 pm

tu204 wrote:
Good lesson for anyone thinking about participating in a project with the US though.

Pretty sure there wasn't anything in the F-35 contract about also being forced to buy any substandard equipment for inflated prices (Patriot). Turkey made a decision to buy a better product and for a better price (S-400) and are now being threatened for it. Nice.

Patriot is what Turkey has wanted for years, they haven't acquired it because they want the technology transfer which the US wasn't providing.
 
tu204
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Re: The U.S. has threatened to expel Turkey from the F-35

Mon May 27, 2019 6:32 pm

Ozair wrote:
tu204 wrote:
Good lesson for anyone thinking about participating in a project with the US though.

Pretty sure there wasn't anything in the F-35 contract about also being forced to buy any substandard equipment for inflated prices (Patriot). Turkey made a decision to buy a better product and for a better price (S-400) and are now being threatened for it. Nice.

Patriot is what Turkey has wanted for years, they haven't acquired it because they want the technology transfer which the US wasn't providing.


And apparently aren't getting much technology transfer with the S-400 deal either. However will end up with a better product and for a better price.
I do not dream about movie stars, they must dream about me for I am real and they are not. - Alexander Popov
 
Ozair
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Re: The U.S. has threatened to expel Turkey from the F-35

Mon May 27, 2019 7:27 pm

tu204 wrote:
Ozair wrote:
tu204 wrote:
Good lesson for anyone thinking about participating in a project with the US though.

Pretty sure there wasn't anything in the F-35 contract about also being forced to buy any substandard equipment for inflated prices (Patriot). Turkey made a decision to buy a better product and for a better price (S-400) and are now being threatened for it. Nice.

Patriot is what Turkey has wanted for years, they haven't acquired it because they want the technology transfer which the US wasn't providing.


And apparently aren't getting much technology transfer with the S-400 deal either. However will end up with a better product and for a better price.

Bit hard to say that. S-400 may be cheaper but I'm not convinced it is more effective than Patriot.
 
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Amazonski
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Re: The U.S. has threatened to expel Turkey from the F-35

Tue May 28, 2019 5:21 pm

tu204 wrote:
And apparently aren't getting much technology transfer with the S-400 deal either. However will end up with a better product and for a better price.

I wouldn't put my money on S-400 as "a better product". Especially PAC-3 is huge development program and the whole system is wildly exported. While the entire info for S-400 comes from Russian booklets and one controlled test (won from the Chinese competitor).

Also considering the poor field performance of other new Russian systems, namely C-1, I doubt S-400 will be any better.
 
ORDfan101
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Re: The U.S. has threatened to expel Turkey from the F-35

Wed May 29, 2019 12:26 pm

As an Israeli, I support removing them from the programme
 
Spar
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Re: The U.S. has threatened to expel Turkey from the F-35

Sun Jun 09, 2019 3:08 am

At this point I don't see how the US could view Erdogan as a trustworthy partner to operate what is, and will continue to be, a weapons system with highly confidential aspects. If he is made to lose face and cancel the SA-400 system at this point, I would expect him to be willing to send his F-35s on radar bomb score missions against Russian SA-400s near Sochi or even just across the Armenian border. As new upgrades are announced in the future, a disloyal character like him could be expected to sell information to the Russians or the Chinese.

We bet on him being a reasonable partner but we lost that bet. Continuing with the deal at this point strikes me as doubling down on a bad bet.
 
texl1649
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Re: The U.S. has threatened to expel Turkey from the F-35

Sun Jun 09, 2019 10:18 am

I read all trainees (40 of them) are to be expelled from the US and denied access to US military bases now by July 31. It’s over, as it should be. If the “conservatives” in Turkey somehow return to a more normal footing or lose power entirely. Maybe it could be revisited in the future. The era of the US being treated like garbage by ‘allies’ is over.
 
Spar
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Re: The U.S. has threatened to expel Turkey from the F-35

Sun Jun 09, 2019 12:37 pm

texl1649 wrote:
The era of the US being treated like garbage by ‘allies’ is over.

LOL
You must have been drinking the Trump kool aid recently, as in: "our friends are really our enemies and our enemies are really nice guys that are misunderstood".
 
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bikerthai
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Re: The U.S. has threatened to expel Turkey from the F-35

Sun Jun 09, 2019 1:57 pm

Yes we are definitely through the looking glass. I'm still waiting for Trump to do something about Pakistan. But that may be too much to ask.

bt
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VSMUT
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Re: The U.S. has threatened to expel Turkey from the F-35

Mon Jun 10, 2019 10:38 am

Amazonski wrote:
tu204 wrote:
And apparently aren't getting much technology transfer with the S-400 deal either. However will end up with a better product and for a better price.

I wouldn't put my money on S-400 as "a better product". Especially PAC-3 is huge development program and the whole system is wildly exported. While the entire info for S-400 comes from Russian booklets and one controlled test (won from the Chinese competitor).

Also considering the poor field performance of other new Russian systems, namely C-1, I doubt S-400 will be any better.


They aren't comparable. PAC-3 is an anti-ballistic missile system that's very limited against atmospheric targets. S-400 is an anti-aircraft system. S-400 will beat the PAC-3 hands down at defense against aircraft.
 
Ozair
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Re: The U.S. has threatened to expel Turkey from the F-35

Mon Jun 10, 2019 12:36 pm

VSMUT wrote:
Amazonski wrote:
tu204 wrote:
And apparently aren't getting much technology transfer with the S-400 deal either. However will end up with a better product and for a better price.

I wouldn't put my money on S-400 as "a better product". Especially PAC-3 is huge development program and the whole system is wildly exported. While the entire info for S-400 comes from Russian booklets and one controlled test (won from the Chinese competitor).

Also considering the poor field performance of other new Russian systems, namely C-1, I doubt S-400 will be any better.


They aren't comparable. PAC-3 is an anti-ballistic missile system that's very limited against atmospheric targets. S-400 is an anti-aircraft system. S-400 will beat the PAC-3 hands down at defense against aircraft.

The PAC-3 MSE modifications have significantly improved the missile against air breathing targets as well as increased range by approx 50%. Given traditionally Russian systems are over specified and western systems are under specified I would say they are reasonably close now from a capability standpoint.
 
JayinKitsap
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Re: The U.S. has threatened to expel Turkey from the F-35

Tue Jun 11, 2019 1:57 am

Flights at Luke for Turkish pilots has been stopped, as well as access to classified spaces.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/06/10/fi ... 35-pilots/
 
DigitalSea
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Re: The U.S. has threatened to expel Turkey from the F-35

Tue Jun 11, 2019 2:48 am

I wonder what kind of access Western Intelligence will get to the S-400 once it's in Turkey.
 
P1aneMad
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Re: The U.S. has threatened to expel Turkey from the F-35

Tue Jun 11, 2019 10:12 am

I think they will get more access to the Indian S-400 batteries than Turkish's.
 
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SAS A340
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Re: The U.S. has threatened to expel Turkey from the F-35

Tue Jun 11, 2019 12:20 pm

I am actually a little surprised that Russia allows the sale of this system to a Nato country... even the S500 is discussed... :stirthepot:
It's not what u do,it's how u do it!
 
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bikerthai
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Re: The U.S. has threatened to expel Turkey from the F-35

Tue Jun 11, 2019 1:37 pm

SAS A340 wrote:
I am actually a little surprised that Russia allows the sale of this system to a Nato country... even the S500 is discussed... :stirthepot:


Imagine if Turkey finally tip over to the Russian side, what will happen to the 737 Peace Eagle. That plane probably have more advance technology than the F-35 or the S500. Talk about intrigue.

bt
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Ozair
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Re: The U.S. has threatened to expel Turkey from the F-35

Tue Jun 11, 2019 2:13 pm

SAS A340 wrote:
I am actually a little surprised that Russia allows the sale of this system to a Nato country... even the S500 is discussed... :stirthepot:

Export versions though so highly unlikely to be the same as Russian systems.
 
checksixx
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Re: The U.S. has threatened to expel Turkey from the F-35

Tue Jun 11, 2019 11:11 pm

tu204 wrote:
Good lesson for anyone thinking about participating in a project with the US though.

Pretty sure there wasn't anything in the F-35 contract about also being forced to buy any substandard equipment for inflated prices (Patriot). Turkey made a decision to buy a better product and for a better price (S-400) and are now being threatened for it. Nice.


They absolutely include wording on foreign military sales in regard to things like this. There is a good reason for it. Hence the willingness to expel them.
 
hmmwv
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Re: The U.S. has threatened to expel Turkey from the F-35

Wed Jun 12, 2019 3:00 am

Ozair wrote:
SAS A340 wrote:
I am actually a little surprised that Russia allows the sale of this system to a Nato country... even the S500 is discussed... :stirthepot:

Export versions though so highly unlikely to be the same as Russian systems.


Probably in electronics or software, but the major mechanical systems are likely identical, so you can still gain valuable information like flight characteristics.
 
Ozair
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Re: The U.S. has threatened to expel Turkey from the F-35

Wed Jun 12, 2019 7:02 am

hmmwv wrote:
Ozair wrote:
SAS A340 wrote:
I am actually a little surprised that Russia allows the sale of this system to a Nato country... even the S500 is discussed... :stirthepot:

Export versions though so highly unlikely to be the same as Russian systems.


Probably in electronics or software, but the major mechanical systems are likely identical, so you can still gain valuable information like flight characteristics.

While I agree the mechanical systems would be the same the software is the important bit. EW isn't fooling the mechanical components, it is aimed squarely at the electronic sensors of the system and it is stealth and EW that has kept western airpower so safe against Russian SAMs for 60+ years.
 
Ozair
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Re: The U.S. has threatened to expel Turkey from the F-35

Mon Jun 24, 2019 10:38 pm

The stand off continues although I'm not suren that the partner nations disagree with the US taking this position.

Turkey stands by S-400s, says F-35 partners disapprove of U.S.

Turkey has purchased Russian missile defenses and is discussing a delivery date irrespective of any U.S. sanctions, Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said on Monday, adding the United States is isolated as it also squeezes Turkey on F-35 jets.

The Pentagon announced earlier this month that training by Turkish pilots on F-35 fighter jets had been halted at a U.S. air base in Arizona following Turkey’s purchase of Russian S-400 defense systems.

The NATO allies have been at loggerheads over the issue for months. Washington says the S-400 is incompatible with NATO’s defense network and could compromise its F-35 fighter jets, an aircraft Turkey is helping build and planning to buy.

Speaking at a news conference Ankara, Cavusoglu said partner nations in the F-35 jet program do not support the steps taken by the United States to halt pilot training.

“Whatever sanctions will be decided, whatever statement would come from the United States, we have purchased S-400s and right now we are talking about when they will be delivered,” Cavusoglu said.

...

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-turk ... SKCN1TP1BW
 
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Aesma
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Re: The U.S. has threatened to expel Turkey from the F-35

Tue Jun 25, 2019 12:27 am

Keeping Turkey on the West's side has been an important goal of the US since WW2 at least, despite setbacks (like the Cyprus situation). I really don't know what should be done, and I have no love lost for Erdogan, but if Turkey ends up leaving NATO, that will be a big blow to Trump's legacy.
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hmmwv
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Re: The U.S. has threatened to expel Turkey from the F-35

Tue Jun 25, 2019 7:52 pm

It doesn't serve Turkey's interest to completely switch sides, countries with strategic geographical locations tend to play both sides and juggle favoritism from both superpowers. India will be similar, while they are reproaching the US they will never burn their bridge with Russia.
 
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bikerthai
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Re: The U.S. has threatened to expel Turkey from the F-35

Tue Jun 25, 2019 11:15 pm

hmmwv wrote:
reproaching the US they will never burn their bridge with Russia.


Maybe you mean approach and not reproach.

The F-35 is just the tip of the iceberg. The economic diverngence will hurt Turkey more in the long run.

As for India, they seem to like US hardware. After topping up with the 4 P8I options, they will be buying 10 more. And the long term benefit is reflected by the 150th F-18 gun bay door delivered by HAL and more mission racks you can count by Dynamatics.

bt
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wingman
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Re: The U.S. has threatened to expel Turkey from the F-35

Wed Jun 26, 2019 4:30 pm

Aesma wrote:
Keeping Turkey on the West's side has been an important goal of the US since WW2 at least, despite setbacks (like the Cyprus situation). I really don't know what should be done, and I have no love lost for Erdogan, but if Turkey ends up leaving NATO, that will be a big blow to Trump's legacy.


I say this from the perspective of Erdogan, his blatant hostility towards the West is probably more at the feet of Europe than the US. Outside of this F35 situation the US has coddled this guy more than Europe has. And granted we have that luxury since hundreds of thousands of migrants aren't passing through on their way here and/or we don't have millions of Turkish emigres voting in US elections.

Erdogan needs his manhood stroked 24/7 and after a decade the wrist begins to ache. Cancelling the F35 would likely lead to a shutdown of US presence at Incirlik, and from there I'd be very worried about Erdogan surviving another coup attempt. I'm not sure Turkey's version of the Deep State is willing to go all in with Russia. Compare the general living standards of the US and EU orbits to Russia's and it's not very enticing is it? But he's the one pushing Turkey in that direction and only Turks can stop that from happening.
 
Ozair
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Re: The U.S. has threatened to expel Turkey from the F-35

Mon Jul 08, 2019 12:03 am

Some interesting commentary coming out of Turkey about the S-400 and the F-35. One of the concessions Turkey is seeking is to have the S-400 only operating during “war time”. Essentially except for predetermined exercises and maintenance the system will be in standby only and not turned on, with Turkey reserving the right to define and operate the system in their version of “war time”.

The info is available via Turkish news reports on Hurriyet, http://www.hurriyet.com.tr/gundem/ankar ... i-41263260

I still don’t see this compromise getting past the US Congress and the Pentagon has been quite clear numerous times that nothing has changed in their stance or understanding of the issue. It likely doesn’t change the advent of US sanctions if Turkey goes through with the acquisition.
 
JayinKitsap
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Re: The U.S. has threatened to expel Turkey from the F-35

Mon Jul 08, 2019 5:04 am

Why would we want the F-35 operating constantly in proximity to the S-400. Every F-35 flight from the airport recorded for review by the Russians on how to detect it - not good. Every interaction the F-35 needs to send out its 'Friend or Foe' designation, what point is that if the Russians know how it is sent and how to decode it.

My guess is the F-35's are not going to Turkey, Poland or other existing customers will grab the slots. It may be a year, and possibly far longer that the F-35 parts made in Turkey still are produced, but in 6 months there will be alternate sources for every Turkish part. Probably not more at the moment as the US still needs Incirlik - for now.
 
hmmwv
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Re: The U.S. has threatened to expel Turkey from the F-35

Mon Jul 08, 2019 10:51 am

On the other hand if you swap the two the F-35s can help NATO gather intel on the S-400 as well.
 
Ozair
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Re: The U.S. has threatened to expel Turkey from the F-35

Tue Jul 09, 2019 10:05 pm

As expected there is no change in the US's position on Turkey and acquisition of the S-400.

'No changes' on U.S. opposition to Turkey's S-400 purchase - U.S. State Dept

Nothing has changed about the United States’ stance on Turkey’s purchase of Russian-built S-400 missile defence systems, U.S. State Department Spox Morgan Ortagus said at a press briefing on Tuesday.

...


Ortagus was unconcerned by reports that the S-400 systems were due to arrive in Turkey on Tuesday, but she was also unequivocal about the consequences if the systems do arrive.

“The Turkish authorities know the legislation that has been passed in Congress as it relates to CAATSA … We have said that Turkey will face real and negative consequences if they accept the S-400, including participation in the F-35 programme”, Ortagus said.

...

https://ahvalnews.com/s-400/no-changes- ... state-dept
 
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Re: The U.S. has threatened to expel Turkey from the F-35

Wed Jul 10, 2019 2:06 am

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/2 ... -purchases

So Turkey has contingency plans in place in case relations with the US worsen.

I still believe that a compromise will be found. Turkey is too critical of an ally to alienate.
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Ozair
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Re: The U.S. has threatened to expel Turkey from the F-35

Wed Jul 10, 2019 2:56 am

alberchico wrote:
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/28832/turkey-reportedly-hoarding-spare-f-16-parts-as-it-faces-sanctions-over-s-400-purchases

So Turkey has contingency plans in place in case relations with the US worsen.

I still believe that a compromise will be found. Turkey is too critical of an ally to alienate.

I still find this whole deal crazy. Is it just political pride that is preventing Turkey from backing down from acquiring the S-400? If you consider what else they operate from the US then it seems an insane decision to cripple their armed forces so they can acquire a few long range SAM systems.

US equipment they operate today

Air Force
F-16, F-4, E-7A, KC-135, C-130, CH-47, UH-1, S-70 and that doesn’t include all the US parts in other airframes.

Navy
S-70, FFG-7s. Mk-46/50 torpedoes, maybe SM-1

Army
Stinger MANPADs, Older tanks, MLRS, a few SP artillery, S-70 and UH-60, UH-1 etc.
 
JayinKitsap
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Re: The U.S. has threatened to expel Turkey from the F-35

Wed Jul 10, 2019 3:30 am

Ozair wrote:
alberchico wrote:
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/28832/turkey-reportedly-hoarding-spare-f-16-parts-as-it-faces-sanctions-over-s-400-purchases

So Turkey has contingency plans in place in case relations with the US worsen.

I still believe that a compromise will be found. Turkey is too critical of an ally to alienate.

I still find this whole deal crazy. Is it just political pride that is preventing Turkey from backing down from acquiring the S-400? If you consider what else they operate from the US then it seems an insane decision to cripple their armed forces so they can acquire a few long range SAM systems.

US equipment they operate today

Air Force
F-16, F-4, E-7A, KC-135, C-130, CH-47, UH-1, S-70 and that doesn’t include all the US parts in other airframes.

Navy
S-70, FFG-7s. Mk-46/50 torpedoes, maybe SM-1

Army
Stinger MANPADs, Older tanks, MLRS, a few SP artillery, S-70 and UH-60, UH-1 etc.


There have been reports that Erdogan believes the US / NATO conspired with the coup attempt, he will basically have 'his men' operating the S-400. Turkey also has the dream to make fighters and weapons, Russia appears to be willing to share their tech, which the West hasn't been willing to do. Yes on the equipment, no on reverse engineering it.
 
Ozair
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Re: The U.S. has threatened to expel Turkey from the F-35

Wed Jul 10, 2019 5:46 am

JayinKitsap wrote:

There have been reports that Erdogan believes the US / NATO conspired with the coup attempt, he will basically have 'his men' operating the S-400.

Agree but realistically what benefit would an S-400 provide in the event of another coup? It may stop some aircraft flying but that is about it and the last coup failed even with aircraft being able to fly.

JayinKitsap wrote:
Turkey also has the dream to make fighters and weapons, Russia appears to be willing to share their tech, which the West hasn't been willing to do. Yes on the equipment, no on reverse engineering it.

Turkey does but as stated previously in this thread Turkey isn’t getting any Russian SAM related technology transfer with this deal. They are apparently receiving other technologies but not the specific ones they were seeking.
 
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bikerthai
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Re: The U.S. has threatened to expel Turkey from the F-35

Wed Jul 10, 2019 1:36 pm

JayinKitsap wrote:
Turkey also has the dream to make fighters and weapons, Russia appears to be willing to share their tech, which the West hasn't been willing to do.


This may have more to do with Turkey's current political stance than anything else. Just look at what is India is doing. They've had enough of building Russian military hardware and is planning to build western fighter planes. And Turkey used to have higher standing than India. After all the E7 Peace Eagle was modified in Turkey.

bt
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JayinKitsap
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Re: The U.S. has threatened to expel Turkey from the F-35

Wed Jul 10, 2019 2:16 pm

I am amazed that Turkey seems to be trying hard to get kicked off the F-35 program. It isn't perfect but it is coming into its own as the fighter of choice. Sure the Su-57 is a hot plane but only a dozen or so are flying and production is around 10 per year, availability of spare parts will be dreadful so the % operational will be quite low.

Thanks Ozair and BT for your always good comments.
 
JayinKitsap
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Re: The U.S. has threatened to expel Turkey from the F-35

Wed Jul 10, 2019 10:29 pm

An article from the DOD. It notes that all F-35 partners and all countries in NATO are aligned that when the S-400 system arrives in Turkey, they will be dropped from the F-35 program.

https://www.defense.gov/explore/story/A ... cial-says/
 
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janders
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Re: The U.S. has threatened to expel Turkey from the F-35

Thu Jul 11, 2019 11:32 pm

Neither the DOD nor State Dept matters when the President ultimately decides.

And look at what he said last week during the G20 meeting with Erdogan. Sure does not seem like is interested in throwing Turkey out nor imposing any punitive sanctions in response to reporter questions.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XRR2234wobs

And more -

Trump says Turkey treated unfairly over Russian arms deal
https://www.ft.com/content/92c05b04-9a4 ... 640c9feebb

Trump Appears To Give Turkey A Pass
https://www.npr.org/2019/07/03/73858693 ... key-a-pass

Ultimately it comes down to as Trump says its a "two-way street" and larger issues like trade. Sure he can burn a bridge with Turkey, but loss of Turkey would create its own additional headaches for the US, Nato and others.

Anyhow - use of Russian equipment in NATO is not new. For example, the S300 is used by 3 NATO nations - Greece, Bulgaria, and Slovakia. Many Soviet/Russian aircraft are in use by NATO air forces still, plus tons of Soviet/Russian ground equipment is still in frontline service as well.
"We make war that we may live in peace." -- Aristotle
 
Ozair
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Re: The U.S. has threatened to expel Turkey from the F-35

Fri Jul 12, 2019 12:04 am

janders wrote:
Neither the DOD nor State Dept matters when the President ultimately decides.


The President does not ultimately decide this issue, Congress does.

The clear evidence of this is that the WhiteHouse in its criticism of HR 2500 did not raise an issue with the specific language preventing the transfer of F-35s to Turkey (section 1255 of HR 2500). The only opposition to 1255 from the WhiteHouse indicates the Administration supports the direction of Congress, but is concerned it removes WhiteHouse foreign Policy interests and unintended consequences.

Statement of Administration policy on HR 2500

HR 2500 text specific to Turkey, https://rules.house.gov/sites/democrats ... 116-19.pdf
SEC. 1255. LIMITATION ON TRANSFER OF F–35 AIRCRAFT TO TURKEY. (a) LIMITATION.—Except as provided in subsection (b), no funds authorized to be appropriated or otherwise made available to the Department of Defense for fiscal year 2020 may be obligated or expended— (1) to transfer, facilitate the transfer, or authorize the transfer of, any F–35 aircraft or related support equipment or parts to Turkey; (2) to transfer intellectual property, technical data, or material support necessary for or related to any maintenance or support of the F–35 aircraft necessary to establish Turkey’s indigenous F–35 capability; or (3) to construct a storage facility for, or otherwise facilitate the storage in Turkey of, any F–35 aircraft transferred to Turkey. (b) EXCEPTION.—The Secretary of Defense, jointly with the Secretary of State, may waive the limitation under subsection (a) only if such Secretaries submit to the appropriate congressional committees a written certification that contains a determination of such Secretaries, and any relevant documentation that forms the basis for the determination, that— (1) the Government of Turkey has provided credible assurances that Turkey will not accept delivery of the S–400 air and missile defense system from Russia; or (2) if the Government of Turkey has previously accepted delivery of the S–400 air and missile defense system from the Russia, the Government of Turkey— (A) no longer possesses the S–400 air and missile defense system or any other equipment, materials, or personnel associated with such system; and (B) has provided credible assurances that it will not in the future accept delivery of the S–400 air and missile defense system. (c) APPLICABILITY.—The limitation under subsection (a) does not apply with respect to F–35 aircraft operated by the United States Armed Forces. (d) DEFINITIONS.—In this section: (1) APPROPRIATE CONGRESSIONAL COMMIT24 TEES.—The term ‘‘appropriate congressional committees’’ means— (A) the congressional defense committees; and (B) the Committee on Foreign Relations of the Senate and the Committee on Foreign Affairs of the House of Representatives. (2) TRANSFER.—The term ‘‘transfer’’ includes, with respect to an F–35 aircraft, the physical relocation of the F–35 aircraft outside of the United States.
 
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LAXintl
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Re: The U.S. has threatened to expel Turkey from the F-35

Fri Jul 12, 2019 12:28 am

Ozair wrote:
The President does not ultimately decide this issue, Congress does.



I believe it was Politico that had a good article about the subject while back stating the administration could largely slow walk or entirely ignore things including issuing presidential executive order or findings based on national security interest.
Same exactly with the CAATSA (Countering America’s Adversaries through Sanctions Act) which is not worth the paper it's written on because it was written to allow wide discretion and places no timeline for action on the administration. In other words, the president has large leeway in compliance if ever plus there are provisions for waivers.

I am not sure totally alienating relations with Turkey is something that is in best U.S interest whatsoever.
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
Spar
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Re: The U.S. has threatened to expel Turkey from the F-35

Fri Jul 12, 2019 2:43 am

LAXintl wrote:
I am not sure totally alienating relations with Turkey is something that is in best U.S interest whatsoever.

It's too late for those sentiments, that water's over the dam already. Erdogen sincerely believes that the CIA was behind, or deeply involved it the coup attempt. We can't undo what's been done, But we also can't allow him to have the F-35 if he has the S-400.

If we allowed him to have those two systems together we would have to assume that the Russians would be fine tuning the target recognition software specifically for the F-35 thereby diminishing the F-35's stealthiness when flown against S-400 systems.

Our hands are tied.
 
JayinKitsap
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Re: The U.S. has threatened to expel Turkey from the F-35

Fri Jul 12, 2019 3:37 am

Well, there is certainly no F-35 information, training, parts, and certainly no planes going to Turkey anytime soon. It might just be on the down low for a while, possibly to let the F-35 suppliers in Turkey to deliver a lot of parts while 2nd sources are geared up. But by the time DOD FY20 budgets are in force, Congress will have bumped Turkey from the F-35 program.
 
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bikerthai
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Re: The U.S. has threatened to expel Turkey from the F-35

Fri Jul 12, 2019 4:32 am

What I am interested in is what is the Israelis' position with respect to the SAM or the '35s. If Israel feels Turkey having both systems is not in their interest, then I'm sure the US Congress can stop the sale. BTW, has Congress approved the sale previously? Even if they did, they can always hold off delivery until sometimes down the road. Like they did with the Saudi F-15's.

bt
Intelligent seeks knowledge. Enlightened seeks wisdom.
 
YIMBY
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Re: The U.S. has threatened to expel Turkey from the F-35

Fri Jul 12, 2019 5:18 am

Spar wrote:

If we allowed him to have those two systems together we would have to assume that the Russians would be fine tuning the target recognition software specifically for the F-35 thereby diminishing the F-35's stealthiness when flown against S-400 systems.

Our hands are tied.


Russia has S-400's and all kind of other radar and non-radar detection systems in Kaliningrad and Leningrad military districts and surveillance, reconnaissance and observation planes flying regularly in the Baltic sea, as well as ships with whatever equipment. Would that prevent US from selling or positioning state-of-art F-35's to Poland, Finland or Baltic states?
 
Spar
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Re: The U.S. has threatened to expel Turkey from the F-35

Fri Jul 12, 2019 5:23 am

YIMBY wrote:
Spar wrote:

If we allowed him to have those two systems together we would have to assume that the Russians would be fine tuning the target recognition software specifically for the F-35 thereby diminishing the F-35's stealthiness when flown against S-400 systems.

Our hands are tied.


Russia has S-400's and all kind of other radar and non-radar detection systems in Kaliningrad and Leningrad military districts and surveillance, reconnaissance and observation planes flying regularly in the Baltic sea, as well as ships with whatever equipment. Would that prevent US from selling or positioning state-of-art F-35's to Poland, Finland or Baltic states?
When those nations fly F-35s in proximity to Russian radar they carry radar reflectors which negate the stealth aspect of the plane.


https://www.businessinsider.com/f-35-lu ... nia-2017-5
 
Ozair
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Re: The U.S. has threatened to expel Turkey from the F-35

Fri Jul 12, 2019 10:50 am

Obviously this has been in process for a few months, almost certainly to get ahead and alleviate the impact on the expectation Turkey would receive the S-400. It might actually be a good thing for the program in the long run if new aircraft deliveries next year drop to accommodate a supplier change as that would allow the rest of the spares to catch up a bit.

Pentagon Will Raid F-35 Spare Parts Budget To Help Pay For Kicking Turkey Out Of The Program

The Pentagon says it needs more than $200 million to help find new suppliers for various components for the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter due to the "potential application of sanctions" on unspecified "foreign countries," almost certainly a reference to Turkey. Last month, senior U.S. military officials outlined a roadmap for how they planned to kick Turkey out of the F-35 program, including ending the roles that numerous Turkish companies play in the construction of the stealthy jets, over the Turkish government's purchase of the Russian S-400 air defense system. But the plan is to shift those funds from an account set aside to buy spare parts for these aircraft, which has been a major contributor to the abysmal readiness rates for all three F-35 variants across the U.S. Air Force, Marine Corps, and Navy.

...

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/2 ... he-program
 
Ozair
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Re: The U.S. has threatened to expel Turkey from the F-35

Fri Jul 12, 2019 10:55 am

And the first S-400 shipment has now arrived...

Turkey receives Russian air defense system, threatening rift with U.S.

Turkey Friday received its first shipment of a Russian air defense system, a move expected to trigger U.S. sanctions against the NATO ally and possibly eject Ankara from the global F-35 fighter jet program.

The country's Defense Ministry announced that the S-400 system was delivered to an air base near Ankara, according to multiple reports.

...

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/07/ ... em-1578293
 
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alberchico
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Re: The U.S. has threatened to expel Turkey from the F-35

Fri Jul 12, 2019 10:44 pm

From what I've read, the red line that Turkey can't cross is switching on the radar and begin integrating them into the defense network. That isn't expected to happen until October. So there is still time for a diplomatic solution. It will be interesting if Trump defies our allies, the Defense Dept, and many members of his own party in offering the Turks a way out of this.
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