j-bird
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Potential Turkish F-35 Replacement?

Sat Jul 27, 2019 12:55 pm

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-turk ... SKCN1UL11H

Apologies if this was hit in a thread already, but I couldn't find it. Does anyone know what the Turkish "runner-up" to the F-35 was? Thoughts on who they might turn to if they actually don't proceed with an F-35 purchase (which is far from certain yet)? I can't see them going Russian given their history of operating American aircraft. Perhaps they would choose to orient themselves more closely with Europe? Or would the Americans permit something like the Super Hornet or one of the recent proposed F-15 developments to go to Turkey as a consolation?
 
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seahawk
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Re: Potential Turkish F-35 Replacement?

Sat Jul 27, 2019 1:53 pm

Considering that they preferred the S400 over the F-35, I can see them going Russian.
 
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par13del
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Re: Potential Turkish F-35 Replacement?

Sat Jul 27, 2019 1:54 pm

Since they played the US off against the Russians, my thought is, whatever the Russians want to offer.
 
UnMAXed
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Re: Potential Turkish F-35 Replacement?

Sat Jul 27, 2019 4:55 pm

I believe the Russians have offered them the Su-35.
Presumably the export version.
 
JayinKitsap
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Re: Potential Turkish F-35 Replacement?

Sat Jul 27, 2019 5:34 pm

seahawk wrote:
Considering that they preferred the S400 over the F-35, I can see them going Russian.


I too see them going with Russian fighters, but that would probably cause their leaving NATO. The S400 has already pushed them to the perimeter.

They already may find it difficult to get parts for the fighters they have. Probably our use of Incirlik is the only reason they are not cut off now.
 
VSMUT
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Re: Potential Turkish F-35 Replacement?

Sun Jul 28, 2019 5:29 am

JayinKitsap wrote:
seahawk wrote:
Considering that they preferred the S400 over the F-35, I can see them going Russian.


I too see them going with Russian fighters, but that would probably cause their leaving NATO. The S400 has already pushed them to the perimeter.

They already may find it difficult to get parts for the fighters they have. Probably our use of Incirlik is the only reason they are not cut off now.


NATO doesn't have any functions to expel a member state. Turkey can only leave if the Turks decide to themselves.
 
Ozair
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Re: Potential Turkish F-35 Replacement?

Sun Jul 28, 2019 9:53 pm

j-bird wrote:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-security-usa/erdogan-says-turkey-to-turn-elsewhere-if-u-s-will-not-sell-f-35s-idUSKCN1UL11H

Apologies if this was hit in a thread already, but I couldn't find it. Does anyone know what the Turkish "runner-up" to the F-35 was? Thoughts on who they might turn to if they actually don't proceed with an F-35 purchase (which is far from certain yet)? I can't see them going Russian given their history of operating American aircraft. Perhaps they would choose to orient themselves more closely with Europe? Or would the Americans permit something like the Super Hornet or one of the recent proposed F-15 developments to go to Turkey as a consolation?


An interesting question and the associated question is do they need more fighters right now? The F-4 are very old and probably need replacement so at the very least they likely need approx. 50 aircraft to replace the F-4 fleet.

As for options, noting that Turkey currently fly the F-16 as their major aircraft they probably aren’t looking for something too large or overly complex to operate and sustain. Flying Russian fighters is certainly not out of the question and some NATO partners have operated Russian aircraft, and some still do, although I can’t think of any that acquired them new from Russia since joining NATO. In that context Su-35 might be an option but it is a very big aircraft and likely very different to what they have operated previously as well as a significantly different sustainment program to western jets. MiG-29/35 maybe but that seems unlikely given the F-16 is likely a better aircraft already.

European is certainly an option, Rafales or Eurofighters would work well and would be closer to the F-16 in ownership and a more viable replacement for not getting F-35. Politically is Europe going to sell Turkey aircraft if they continue to their campaign against the Kurds (while they and the US would have previously this may now change things)? If Turkey has been stockpiling F-16 parts as alleged then a US aircraft seems unlikely, as does the support and training required by the US to start up a new capability. Chinese aircraft are certainly an outside possibility but most NATO partners wouldn’t be over the moon about that acquisition either nor do I think Turkey would likely have confidence in a Chinese exported aircraft.

Ultimately Turkey is keen for a domestic aircraft, the TF-X, but this is still on the drawing board and I personally don't have confidece Turkey has the ability to build it but if the Turkish Government is happy for the Air Force to contract for a few years waiting may be worth it. Noting as well that Greece is about to upgrade their fleet of F-16s to the V standard that may also put pressure on Turkey to acquire something sooner. The other issue is Turkey have built a Juan Carlos LHD that will now not have the F-35B flying off its deck and, other than very old Harriers it is unlikely they could/would acquire, there isn’t another fixed wing aircraft to operate from it.

Lots of questions and not a lot of confidence in which direction Turkey will go. Will be interesting to see what happens.
 
art
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Re: Potential Turkish F-35 Replacement?

Mon Jul 29, 2019 12:16 pm

Would German government block the supply of Eurofighters? Would UK government allow supply of Eurofighters, given that they might be used against PKK?

If UK did allow supply to Turkey, what about Turkey buying tranche 1 aircraft? I think that both Italy and Spain have offered used aircraft for sale so it might be possible for Turkey to get enough Typhoons for 3 or 4 squadrons. And if Turkey wanted enough aircraft to keep air force fighter numbers healthy until TF-X became available, why not do a deal to secure the Spanish or Italian FAL equipment and make a few themselves? I guess the cancellation of F-35 parts manufacture will leave some of the Turkish companies involved in a very difficult position. Manufacturing parts for Eurofighter would mitigate the situation, would it not?
 
ThePointblank
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Re: Potential Turkish F-35 Replacement?

Tue Jul 30, 2019 8:37 am

art wrote:
Would German government block the supply of Eurofighters? Would UK government allow supply of Eurofighters, given that they might be used against PKK?

If UK did allow supply to Turkey, what about Turkey buying tranche 1 aircraft? I think that both Italy and Spain have offered used aircraft for sale so it might be possible for Turkey to get enough Typhoons for 3 or 4 squadrons. And if Turkey wanted enough aircraft to keep air force fighter numbers healthy until TF-X became available, why not do a deal to secure the Spanish or Italian FAL equipment and make a few themselves? I guess the cancellation of F-35 parts manufacture will leave some of the Turkish companies involved in a very difficult position. Manufacturing parts for Eurofighter would mitigate the situation, would it not?

I'm suspecting that both the German and British government would both object to the sale of Eurofighter to Turkey given the current political environment in Turkey. 10 years ago, it would not have been a problem, but not today.
 
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Aesma
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Re: Potential Turkish F-35 Replacement?

Tue Jul 30, 2019 9:17 am

Add France to the list (stake in both Rafale directly, and Eurofighter via Airbus). The PKK isn't even really seen as a terrorist organization in France, they cause too much trouble to be completely ignored, but they're not exactly a priority.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
WKTaylor
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Re: Potential Turkish F-35 Replacement?

Tue Jul 30, 2019 6:46 pm

Turkish Aerospace Industries is starting development on an indigenously designed/manufactured stealth fighter... I guess this will light-the-fire' under development to 'git-er-done'.

https://www.airforce-technology.com/pro ... h-fighter/
 
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SAS A340
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Re: Potential Turkish F-35 Replacement?

Wed Jul 31, 2019 7:05 am

It says "It will replace the existing fleet of F-16 fighter jets in service with the Turkish Air Force and join the F-35 fighter jet fleet," I thought that the F-35 purpose was to replace the F-16...... and maiden flight already in 2023 despite decision on the design isn't ready yet...?
It's not what u do,it's how u do it!
 
Ozair
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Re: Potential Turkish F-35 Replacement?

Wed Jul 31, 2019 7:16 am

SAS A340 wrote:
It says "It will replace the existing fleet of F-16 fighter jets in service with the Turkish Air Force and join the F-35 fighter jet fleet," I thought that the F-35 purpose was to replace the F-16...... and maiden flight already in 2023 despite decision on the design isn't ready yet...?

Clearly the website is old and needs updating.

Turkey has 250+ F-16s, the F-35 was meant to replace the F-4s and then the early F-16s. Post that was probably a mix of F-35 and TF-X to replace the rest but now with no F-35 it is up for grabs.
 
art
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Re: Potential Turkish F-35 Replacement?

Wed Jul 31, 2019 8:37 am

Ozair wrote:
SAS A340 wrote:
It says "It will replace the existing fleet of F-16 fighter jets in service with the Turkish Air Force and join the F-35 fighter jet fleet," I thought that the F-35 purpose was to replace the F-16...... and maiden flight already in 2023 despite decision on the design isn't ready yet...?

Clearly the website is old and needs updating.

Turkey has 250+ F-16s, the F-35 was meant to replace the F-4s and then the early F-16s. Post that was probably a mix of F-35 and TF-X to replace the rest but now with no F-35 it is up for grabs.


My guess is that if TF-X development went astonishly smoothly (no major development problems) IOC would be near 2030. Does Turkey carry on with its current inventory (less airframes forced into retirement by reaching max hours) until TF-X becomes operational? If that is not an option and fighters from US, Eurofighter and Rafale are not available does Turkey buy something Russian to fill the gap? I don't know the political relationship with Israel but if not bad, could Turkey not buy some of their F-16's instead? Might be expensive but a lot easier than switching to Russian aircraft incompatible with Turkey's aircraft weapons arsenal.
 
Ozair
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Re: Potential Turkish F-35 Replacement?

Wed Jul 31, 2019 1:24 pm

art wrote:
Ozair wrote:
SAS A340 wrote:
It says "It will replace the existing fleet of F-16 fighter jets in service with the Turkish Air Force and join the F-35 fighter jet fleet," I thought that the F-35 purpose was to replace the F-16...... and maiden flight already in 2023 despite decision on the design isn't ready yet...?

Clearly the website is old and needs updating.

Turkey has 250+ F-16s, the F-35 was meant to replace the F-4s and then the early F-16s. Post that was probably a mix of F-35 and TF-X to replace the rest but now with no F-35 it is up for grabs.


My guess is that if TF-X development went astonishly smoothly (no major development problems) IOC would be near 2030. Does Turkey carry on with its current inventory (less airframes forced into retirement by reaching max hours) until TF-X becomes operational? If that is not an option and fighters from US, Eurofighter and Rafale are not available does Turkey buy something Russian to fill the gap? I don't know the political relationship with Israel but if not bad, could Turkey not buy some of their F-16's instead? Might be expensive but a lot easier than switching to Russian aircraft incompatible with Turkey's aircraft weapons arsenal.

2030 seems a realistic tineframe to me as well. Would be hard to see Turkey continue the F-4s that long but I guess spares and surplus airframes are available.

Turkey, or at least edrogen hasn't been very complimentary of Israel lately so not sure they woild get used airframes from there, additionally the US still needs to approve transfer.

Agree also russian aircraft poses problems going forward especially in the absence of western support. Russia isn't exactly a friend of Turkey, it feels very much a marriage of convenience.
 
j-bird
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Re: Potential Turkish F-35 Replacement?

Wed Jul 31, 2019 6:54 pm

Thanks all - very insightful commentary here from all participants. I guess it will unfold in tandem with the geopolitical game that seems to be enveloping Turkey....
 
art
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Re: Potential Turkish F-35 Replacement?

Wed Jul 31, 2019 8:43 pm

Deleted.
Last edited by art on Wed Jul 31, 2019 8:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
art
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Re: Potential Turkish F-35 Replacement?

Wed Jul 31, 2019 8:44 pm

Ozair wrote:

Turkey, or at least edrogen hasn't been very complimentary of Israel lately so not sure they woild get used airframes from there, additionally the US still needs to approve transfer.


USA may not be pleased that Turkey chose to buy SAM's from Russia, having been blocked from buying SAM's from USA. How much value does USA see in Turkey being a member of NATO with a large fighter force, though? Not enough to sanction F-16's from another source? I do recall one of the eastern European countries trying to buy Israeli F-16's but there was some kind of contractual problem whereby USA or LM would not agree to the sale. I wonder if USA would block a Turkish purchase of Belgian or Dutch or Danish or Norwegian F-16's.
 
Ozair
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Re: Potential Turkish F-35 Replacement?

Wed Jul 31, 2019 11:50 pm

art wrote:
Ozair wrote:

Turkey, or at least edrogen hasn't been very complimentary of Israel lately so not sure they woild get used airframes from there, additionally the US still needs to approve transfer.


USA may not be pleased that Turkey chose to buy SAM's from Russia, having been blocked from buying SAM's from USA. How much value does USA see in Turkey being a member of NATO with a large fighter force, though? Not enough to sanction F-16's from another source?

Probably too early to say yet on the F-16 fleet. I don’t think anyone within NATO wants Turkey to leave but how the negotiations go over safe corridors etc may have an impact.

Turkey has not just a large fighter force but also the second largest standing army of the alliance, and remains a strategic position, so multiplefactors to consider.

art wrote:
I do recall one of the eastern European countries trying to buy Israeli F-16's but there was some kind of contractual problem whereby USA or LM would not agree to the sale.

Israel offered a version of the aircraft that wasn’t compliant with their export licence so hence the US blocked it. Probably some pressure from LM there, with a competing bid, but not a surprise if they offer something that violates their previous agreements.

art wrote:
I wonder if USA would block a Turkish purchase of Belgian or Dutch or Danish or Norwegian F-16's.

An excellent option. Unlike Israel which isn’t a NATO member those three would be good choices to transfer aircraft and have enough between them to probably meet Turkey’s needs until TF-X is available. One of the news articles indicated that Turkey was stockpiling F-16 parts against the potential for these spares to be blocked via sanctions but hopefully it doesn’t come to that. Direct sanctions on military equipment would clearly steer Turkey towards Russia and exit from the alliance.
 
Ozair
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Re: Potential Turkish F-35 Replacement?

Thu Aug 01, 2019 1:03 am

art wrote:
Ozair wrote:

Turkey, or at least edrogen hasn't been very complimentary of Israel lately so not sure they woild get used airframes from there, additionally the US still needs to approve transfer.


USA may not be pleased that Turkey chose to buy SAM's from Russia, having been blocked from buying SAM's from USA. How much value does USA see in Turkey being a member of NATO with a large fighter force, though? Not enough to sanction F-16's from another source? I do recall one of the eastern European countries trying to buy Israeli F-16's but there was some kind of contractual problem whereby USA or LM would not agree to the sale. I wonder if USA would block a Turkish purchase of Belgian or Dutch or Danish or Norwegian F-16's.


An interesting side article, Turkey has received the last four CH-47s from an earlier order so clearly the removal from the F-35 program hasn’t stopped other equipment from continuing to come into the country from the US.

https://ahvalnews.com/helicopter/turkey ... elicopters
 
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Erebus
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Re: Potential Turkish F-35 Replacement?

Thu Aug 01, 2019 2:57 am

Ozair wrote:
art wrote:
Ozair wrote:

Turkey, or at least edrogen hasn't been very complimentary of Israel lately so not sure they woild get used airframes from there, additionally the US still needs to approve transfer.


USA may not be pleased that Turkey chose to buy SAM's from Russia, having been blocked from buying SAM's from USA. How much value does USA see in Turkey being a member of NATO with a large fighter force, though? Not enough to sanction F-16's from another source? I do recall one of the eastern European countries trying to buy Israeli F-16's but there was some kind of contractual problem whereby USA or LM would not agree to the sale. I wonder if USA would block a Turkish purchase of Belgian or Dutch or Danish or Norwegian F-16's.


An interesting side article, Turkey has received the last four CH-47s from an earlier order so clearly the removal from the F-35 program hasn’t stopped other equipment from continuing to come into the country from the US.

https://ahvalnews.com/helicopter/turkey ... elicopters


I would expect as much. If we take the position that the US blocked the F-35 on grounds that it might expose its advanced stealth capabilities to the Russians, I don't quite see why they should also block any older generation military hardware whose capabilities are probably well known to the Russians.
 
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SAS A340
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Re: Potential Turkish F-35 Replacement?

Thu Aug 01, 2019 5:45 pm

Hasn't Lockheed Martin offer its "F-21" to compete in India’s tender for new fighters? India has bought the S-400, right?
It's not what u do,it's how u do it!
 
Ozair
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Re: Potential Turkish F-35 Replacement?

Thu Aug 01, 2019 9:13 pm

SAS A340 wrote:
Hasn't Lockheed Martin offer its "F-21" to compete in India’s tender for new fighters? India has bought the S-400, right?

LM with the F-21(16) and Boeing with the SH. It is a factor but India is in the process, or may have bene already, granted a waiver to acquire both platforms should they chose a US fighter. India isn't a member of NATO, nor a JSF partner and has a history of acquiring Russian equipment so the circumstances and political considerations are different.
 
YIMBY
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Re: Potential Turkish F-35 Replacement?

Mon Aug 05, 2019 6:01 am

Ozair wrote:
The F-4 are very old and probably need replacement so at the very least they likely need approx. 50 aircraft to replace the F-4 fleet.


Why do you say that Turkey needs more fighters? In another thread you claim that the Republic of Ireland (GDP on third of Turkey) does not need one single fighter and now you claim that Turkey needs 50 aircraft in addition to those existing ca 250 F-16 fighters, some of which are rather new and most are in flyable, updated configuration. That is already more than enough for credible self-defense.
 
Ozair
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Re: Potential Turkish F-35 Replacement?

Mon Aug 05, 2019 6:26 am

YIMBY wrote:
Ozair wrote:
The F-4 are very old and probably need replacement so at the very least they likely need approx. 50 aircraft to replace the F-4 fleet.


Why do you say that Turkey needs more fighters? In another thread you claim that the Republic of Ireland (GDP on third of Turkey) does not need one single fighter and now you claim that Turkey needs 50 aircraft in addition to those existing ca 250 F-16 fighters, some of which are rather new and most are in flyable, updated configuration. That is already more than enough for credible self-defense.


Did I say they need more fighters? More succinctly I said they want to replace their F-4s. Replacing those and the early F-16s with F-35s was the plan. I doubt they expect their force structure to increase over time and would/was likely to see it decrease as they brought in new capability in the form of 5th and advanced 4th gen.

The difference though between Turkey and Ireland is Turkey is a long standing member of NATO and for much of the 1950-90s expected/trained to use its air force against the Soviet Union and its allies. Today Turkey lives in an unstable region of the globe and national defence is a high priority. As unstable as the UK is politically right now ;) it isn’t planning on invading Ireland anytime soon, nor does Ireland have any serious border issues. Ireland also has essentially no air threat against it.

Hence to try and compare the air defence needs of Ireland and Turkey is really a waste of time, their requirements today and their history are so vastly different there are literally no similarities.
 
mig21umd
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Re: Potential Turkish F-35 Replacement?

Mon Aug 05, 2019 10:12 am

If they go Russian will they have an issue with possible Israeli tech being used on those planes or was that just an 'isolated' incident :?:
Once you have tasted flight, you will forever walk the earth with your eyes turned skyward, for there you long to return
 
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JerseyFlyer
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Re: Potential Turkish F-35 Replacement?

Mon Aug 05, 2019 11:50 am

Having been blocked by the US in obtaining the newest and best US-built fighter, I don't see them ordering any new second-best offerings from the US.

Maybe second-hand F16s as a stop-gap. More likely new alternatives from Europe or Russia.
 
tu204
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Re: Potential Turkish F-35 Replacement?

Mon Aug 12, 2019 11:59 am

https://m.lenta.ru/news/2019/08/11/turcia/
(Use Google Translate)

Apparently Turkey is eyeing Su-35's.
I do not dream about movie stars, they must dream about me for I am real and they are not. - Alexander Popov
 
Draken21fx
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Re: Potential Turkish F-35 Replacement?

Wed Aug 14, 2019 10:04 am

Ozair wrote:
j-bird wrote:
...


...

Ultimately Turkey is keen for a domestic aircraft, the TF-X, but this is still on the drawing board and I personally don't have confidece Turkey has the ability to build it but if the Turkish Government is happy for the Air Force to contract for a few years waiting may be worth it. Noting as well that Greece is about to upgrade their fleet of F-16s to the V standard that may also put pressure on Turkey to acquire something sooner. The other issue is Turkey have built a Juan Carlos LHD that will now not have the F-35B flying off its deck and, other than very old Harriers it is unlikely they could/would acquire, there isn’t another fixed wing aircraft to operate from it.

Lots of questions and not a lot of confidence in which direction Turkey will go. Will be interesting to see what happens.


The Greek Air Force is the only one comparable to the Turkish one in the region but bearing in mind that Greece is coming out of a crisis which forced them to cut the numbers of fighters and postpone the modernisation of them I dont think that Turkey should be in much hurry to select the next generation fighter. The V upgrade is still in the drawing boards plus Greece will be offloading some of the older Block 30 variants.

Interesting times ahead indeed...
 
JayinKitsap
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Re: Potential Turkish F-35 Replacement?

Wed Aug 14, 2019 5:11 pm

Once Turkey orders the Su-35's the spare parts for all their F-16s will become quite dear.
 
art
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Re: Potential Turkish F-35 Replacement?

Fri Aug 16, 2019 9:58 pm

tu204 wrote:
https://m.lenta.ru/news/2019/08/11/turcia/
(Use Google Translate)

Apparently Turkey is eyeing Su-35's.


I can't imagine how the white man in the White House will react if they do sign up for Sukhois.

But seriously, it might not be against the law but how does flying Su-35's square with being a member of NATO?
 
Ozair
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Re: Potential Turkish F-35 Replacement?

Sat Aug 17, 2019 1:12 am

art wrote:
tu204 wrote:
https://m.lenta.ru/news/2019/08/11/turcia/
(Use Google Translate)

Apparently Turkey is eyeing Su-35's.


I can't imagine how the white man in the White House will react if they do sign up for Sukhois.

But seriously, it might not be against the law but how does flying Su-35's square with being a member of NATO?

It won't get a Link 16 integration so unqlikely to meet NATO requirements. Turkey still has 250 F-16s though so they can just not allocate the Su-35s to NATO missions.
 
tu204
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Re: Potential Turkish F-35 Replacement?

Sat Aug 17, 2019 7:37 pm

art wrote:
tu204 wrote:
https://m.lenta.ru/news/2019/08/11/turcia/
(Use Google Translate)

Apparently Turkey is eyeing Su-35's.


I can't imagine how the white man in the White House will react if they do sign up for Sukhois.


:lol:

Well it's not like he can compain. If for whatever reason (be it valid or not) one party does not sell another party what they want and a third party is willing to sell, there ain't much grounds to complain on. ;)

What's annoying to me as a Russian citizen is that just like back in the USSR times these shopping sprees (not just military, but civilian as well - Nuclear power stations to name expensive toys, half of which are built by Rosatom in the EU) are majority financed by Russian government loans.
I guess at least it is better to finance Turkey's or the E.U.'s buying Russian goods than Cuba's or Africa's (who will never pay it off and lead to writing off billions of debt several decades down the road)...
I do not dream about movie stars, they must dream about me for I am real and they are not. - Alexander Popov

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