j-bird
Topic Author
Posts: 111
Joined: Sat Feb 17, 2001 6:47 am

Potential Turkish F-35 Replacement?

Sat Jul 27, 2019 12:55 pm

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-turk ... SKCN1UL11H

Apologies if this was hit in a thread already, but I couldn't find it. Does anyone know what the Turkish "runner-up" to the F-35 was? Thoughts on who they might turn to if they actually don't proceed with an F-35 purchase (which is far from certain yet)? I can't see them going Russian given their history of operating American aircraft. Perhaps they would choose to orient themselves more closely with Europe? Or would the Americans permit something like the Super Hornet or one of the recent proposed F-15 developments to go to Turkey as a consolation?
 
User avatar
seahawk
Posts: 8698
Joined: Fri May 27, 2005 1:29 am

Re: Potential Turkish F-35 Replacement?

Sat Jul 27, 2019 1:53 pm

Considering that they preferred the S400 over the F-35, I can see them going Russian.
 
User avatar
par13del
Posts: 9037
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2005 9:14 pm

Re: Potential Turkish F-35 Replacement?

Sat Jul 27, 2019 1:54 pm

Since they played the US off against the Russians, my thought is, whatever the Russians want to offer.
 
UnMAXed
Posts: 13
Joined: Sat Jul 20, 2019 9:55 am

Re: Potential Turkish F-35 Replacement?

Sat Jul 27, 2019 4:55 pm

I believe the Russians have offered them the Su-35.
Presumably the export version.
 
JayinKitsap
Posts: 1470
Joined: Sat Nov 26, 2005 9:55 am

Re: Potential Turkish F-35 Replacement?

Sat Jul 27, 2019 5:34 pm

seahawk wrote:
Considering that they preferred the S400 over the F-35, I can see them going Russian.


I too see them going with Russian fighters, but that would probably cause their leaving NATO. The S400 has already pushed them to the perimeter.

They already may find it difficult to get parts for the fighters they have. Probably our use of Incirlik is the only reason they are not cut off now.
 
VSMUT
Posts: 3009
Joined: Mon Aug 08, 2016 11:40 am

Re: Potential Turkish F-35 Replacement?

Sun Jul 28, 2019 5:29 am

JayinKitsap wrote:
seahawk wrote:
Considering that they preferred the S400 over the F-35, I can see them going Russian.


I too see them going with Russian fighters, but that would probably cause their leaving NATO. The S400 has already pushed them to the perimeter.

They already may find it difficult to get parts for the fighters they have. Probably our use of Incirlik is the only reason they are not cut off now.


NATO doesn't have any functions to expel a member state. Turkey can only leave if the Turks decide to themselves.
 
Ozair
Posts: 4254
Joined: Mon Jan 31, 2005 8:38 am

Re: Potential Turkish F-35 Replacement?

Sun Jul 28, 2019 9:53 pm

j-bird wrote:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-security-usa/erdogan-says-turkey-to-turn-elsewhere-if-u-s-will-not-sell-f-35s-idUSKCN1UL11H

Apologies if this was hit in a thread already, but I couldn't find it. Does anyone know what the Turkish "runner-up" to the F-35 was? Thoughts on who they might turn to if they actually don't proceed with an F-35 purchase (which is far from certain yet)? I can't see them going Russian given their history of operating American aircraft. Perhaps they would choose to orient themselves more closely with Europe? Or would the Americans permit something like the Super Hornet or one of the recent proposed F-15 developments to go to Turkey as a consolation?


An interesting question and the associated question is do they need more fighters right now? The F-4 are very old and probably need replacement so at the very least they likely need approx. 50 aircraft to replace the F-4 fleet.

As for options, noting that Turkey currently fly the F-16 as their major aircraft they probably aren’t looking for something too large or overly complex to operate and sustain. Flying Russian fighters is certainly not out of the question and some NATO partners have operated Russian aircraft, and some still do, although I can’t think of any that acquired them new from Russia since joining NATO. In that context Su-35 might be an option but it is a very big aircraft and likely very different to what they have operated previously as well as a significantly different sustainment program to western jets. MiG-29/35 maybe but that seems unlikely given the F-16 is likely a better aircraft already.

European is certainly an option, Rafales or Eurofighters would work well and would be closer to the F-16 in ownership and a more viable replacement for not getting F-35. Politically is Europe going to sell Turkey aircraft if they continue to their campaign against the Kurds (while they and the US would have previously this may now change things)? If Turkey has been stockpiling F-16 parts as alleged then a US aircraft seems unlikely, as does the support and training required by the US to start up a new capability. Chinese aircraft are certainly an outside possibility but most NATO partners wouldn’t be over the moon about that acquisition either nor do I think Turkey would likely have confidence in a Chinese exported aircraft.

Ultimately Turkey is keen for a domestic aircraft, the TF-X, but this is still on the drawing board and I personally don't have confidece Turkey has the ability to build it but if the Turkish Government is happy for the Air Force to contract for a few years waiting may be worth it. Noting as well that Greece is about to upgrade their fleet of F-16s to the V standard that may also put pressure on Turkey to acquire something sooner. The other issue is Turkey have built a Juan Carlos LHD that will now not have the F-35B flying off its deck and, other than very old Harriers it is unlikely they could/would acquire, there isn’t another fixed wing aircraft to operate from it.

Lots of questions and not a lot of confidence in which direction Turkey will go. Will be interesting to see what happens.
 
art
Posts: 2930
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

Re: Potential Turkish F-35 Replacement?

Mon Jul 29, 2019 12:16 pm

Would German government block the supply of Eurofighters? Would UK government allow supply of Eurofighters, given that they might be used against PKK?

If UK did allow supply to Turkey, what about Turkey buying tranche 1 aircraft? I think that both Italy and Spain have offered used aircraft for sale so it might be possible for Turkey to get enough Typhoons for 3 or 4 squadrons. And if Turkey wanted enough aircraft to keep air force fighter numbers healthy until TF-X became available, why not do a deal to secure the Spanish or Italian FAL equipment and make a few themselves? I guess the cancellation of F-35 parts manufacture will leave some of the Turkish companies involved in a very difficult position. Manufacturing parts for Eurofighter would mitigate the situation, would it not?
 
ThePointblank
Posts: 3211
Joined: Sat Jan 17, 2009 11:39 pm

Re: Potential Turkish F-35 Replacement?

Tue Jul 30, 2019 8:37 am

art wrote:
Would German government block the supply of Eurofighters? Would UK government allow supply of Eurofighters, given that they might be used against PKK?

If UK did allow supply to Turkey, what about Turkey buying tranche 1 aircraft? I think that both Italy and Spain have offered used aircraft for sale so it might be possible for Turkey to get enough Typhoons for 3 or 4 squadrons. And if Turkey wanted enough aircraft to keep air force fighter numbers healthy until TF-X became available, why not do a deal to secure the Spanish or Italian FAL equipment and make a few themselves? I guess the cancellation of F-35 parts manufacture will leave some of the Turkish companies involved in a very difficult position. Manufacturing parts for Eurofighter would mitigate the situation, would it not?

I'm suspecting that both the German and British government would both object to the sale of Eurofighter to Turkey given the current political environment in Turkey. 10 years ago, it would not have been a problem, but not today.
 
User avatar
Aesma
Posts: 11833
Joined: Sat Nov 14, 2009 6:14 am

Re: Potential Turkish F-35 Replacement?

Tue Jul 30, 2019 9:17 am

Add France to the list (stake in both Rafale directly, and Eurofighter via Airbus). The PKK isn't even really seen as a terrorist organization in France, they cause too much trouble to be completely ignored, but they're not exactly a priority.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
WKTaylor
Posts: 62
Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2016 9:36 pm

Re: Potential Turkish F-35 Replacement?

Tue Jul 30, 2019 6:46 pm

Turkish Aerospace Industries is starting development on an indigenously designed/manufactured stealth fighter... I guess this will light-the-fire' under development to 'git-er-done'.

https://www.airforce-technology.com/pro ... h-fighter/
 
User avatar
SAS A340
Posts: 846
Joined: Fri Jul 28, 2000 5:59 am

Re: Potential Turkish F-35 Replacement?

Wed Jul 31, 2019 7:05 am

It says "It will replace the existing fleet of F-16 fighter jets in service with the Turkish Air Force and join the F-35 fighter jet fleet," I thought that the F-35 purpose was to replace the F-16...... and maiden flight already in 2023 despite decision on the design isn't ready yet...?
It's not what u do,it's how u do it!
 
Ozair
Posts: 4254
Joined: Mon Jan 31, 2005 8:38 am

Re: Potential Turkish F-35 Replacement?

Wed Jul 31, 2019 7:16 am

SAS A340 wrote:
It says "It will replace the existing fleet of F-16 fighter jets in service with the Turkish Air Force and join the F-35 fighter jet fleet," I thought that the F-35 purpose was to replace the F-16...... and maiden flight already in 2023 despite decision on the design isn't ready yet...?

Clearly the website is old and needs updating.

Turkey has 250+ F-16s, the F-35 was meant to replace the F-4s and then the early F-16s. Post that was probably a mix of F-35 and TF-X to replace the rest but now with no F-35 it is up for grabs.
 
art
Posts: 2930
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

Re: Potential Turkish F-35 Replacement?

Wed Jul 31, 2019 8:37 am

Ozair wrote:
SAS A340 wrote:
It says "It will replace the existing fleet of F-16 fighter jets in service with the Turkish Air Force and join the F-35 fighter jet fleet," I thought that the F-35 purpose was to replace the F-16...... and maiden flight already in 2023 despite decision on the design isn't ready yet...?

Clearly the website is old and needs updating.

Turkey has 250+ F-16s, the F-35 was meant to replace the F-4s and then the early F-16s. Post that was probably a mix of F-35 and TF-X to replace the rest but now with no F-35 it is up for grabs.


My guess is that if TF-X development went astonishly smoothly (no major development problems) IOC would be near 2030. Does Turkey carry on with its current inventory (less airframes forced into retirement by reaching max hours) until TF-X becomes operational? If that is not an option and fighters from US, Eurofighter and Rafale are not available does Turkey buy something Russian to fill the gap? I don't know the political relationship with Israel but if not bad, could Turkey not buy some of their F-16's instead? Might be expensive but a lot easier than switching to Russian aircraft incompatible with Turkey's aircraft weapons arsenal.
 
Ozair
Posts: 4254
Joined: Mon Jan 31, 2005 8:38 am

Re: Potential Turkish F-35 Replacement?

Wed Jul 31, 2019 1:24 pm

art wrote:
Ozair wrote:
SAS A340 wrote:
It says "It will replace the existing fleet of F-16 fighter jets in service with the Turkish Air Force and join the F-35 fighter jet fleet," I thought that the F-35 purpose was to replace the F-16...... and maiden flight already in 2023 despite decision on the design isn't ready yet...?

Clearly the website is old and needs updating.

Turkey has 250+ F-16s, the F-35 was meant to replace the F-4s and then the early F-16s. Post that was probably a mix of F-35 and TF-X to replace the rest but now with no F-35 it is up for grabs.


My guess is that if TF-X development went astonishly smoothly (no major development problems) IOC would be near 2030. Does Turkey carry on with its current inventory (less airframes forced into retirement by reaching max hours) until TF-X becomes operational? If that is not an option and fighters from US, Eurofighter and Rafale are not available does Turkey buy something Russian to fill the gap? I don't know the political relationship with Israel but if not bad, could Turkey not buy some of their F-16's instead? Might be expensive but a lot easier than switching to Russian aircraft incompatible with Turkey's aircraft weapons arsenal.

2030 seems a realistic tineframe to me as well. Would be hard to see Turkey continue the F-4s that long but I guess spares and surplus airframes are available.

Turkey, or at least edrogen hasn't been very complimentary of Israel lately so not sure they woild get used airframes from there, additionally the US still needs to approve transfer.

Agree also russian aircraft poses problems going forward especially in the absence of western support. Russia isn't exactly a friend of Turkey, it feels very much a marriage of convenience.
 
j-bird
Topic Author
Posts: 111
Joined: Sat Feb 17, 2001 6:47 am

Re: Potential Turkish F-35 Replacement?

Wed Jul 31, 2019 6:54 pm

Thanks all - very insightful commentary here from all participants. I guess it will unfold in tandem with the geopolitical game that seems to be enveloping Turkey....
 
art
Posts: 2930
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

Re: Potential Turkish F-35 Replacement?

Wed Jul 31, 2019 8:44 pm

Ozair wrote:

Turkey, or at least edrogen hasn't been very complimentary of Israel lately so not sure they woild get used airframes from there, additionally the US still needs to approve transfer.


USA may not be pleased that Turkey chose to buy SAM's from Russia, having been blocked from buying SAM's from USA. How much value does USA see in Turkey being a member of NATO with a large fighter force, though? Not enough to sanction F-16's from another source? I do recall one of the eastern European countries trying to buy Israeli F-16's but there was some kind of contractual problem whereby USA or LM would not agree to the sale. I wonder if USA would block a Turkish purchase of Belgian or Dutch or Danish or Norwegian F-16's.
 
Ozair
Posts: 4254
Joined: Mon Jan 31, 2005 8:38 am

Re: Potential Turkish F-35 Replacement?

Wed Jul 31, 2019 11:50 pm

art wrote:
Ozair wrote:

Turkey, or at least edrogen hasn't been very complimentary of Israel lately so not sure they woild get used airframes from there, additionally the US still needs to approve transfer.


USA may not be pleased that Turkey chose to buy SAM's from Russia, having been blocked from buying SAM's from USA. How much value does USA see in Turkey being a member of NATO with a large fighter force, though? Not enough to sanction F-16's from another source?

Probably too early to say yet on the F-16 fleet. I don’t think anyone within NATO wants Turkey to leave but how the negotiations go over safe corridors etc may have an impact.

Turkey has not just a large fighter force but also the second largest standing army of the alliance, and remains a strategic position, so multiplefactors to consider.

art wrote:
I do recall one of the eastern European countries trying to buy Israeli F-16's but there was some kind of contractual problem whereby USA or LM would not agree to the sale.

Israel offered a version of the aircraft that wasn’t compliant with their export licence so hence the US blocked it. Probably some pressure from LM there, with a competing bid, but not a surprise if they offer something that violates their previous agreements.

art wrote:
I wonder if USA would block a Turkish purchase of Belgian or Dutch or Danish or Norwegian F-16's.

An excellent option. Unlike Israel which isn’t a NATO member those three would be good choices to transfer aircraft and have enough between them to probably meet Turkey’s needs until TF-X is available. One of the news articles indicated that Turkey was stockpiling F-16 parts against the potential for these spares to be blocked via sanctions but hopefully it doesn’t come to that. Direct sanctions on military equipment would clearly steer Turkey towards Russia and exit from the alliance.
 
Ozair
Posts: 4254
Joined: Mon Jan 31, 2005 8:38 am

Re: Potential Turkish F-35 Replacement?

Thu Aug 01, 2019 1:03 am

art wrote:
Ozair wrote:

Turkey, or at least edrogen hasn't been very complimentary of Israel lately so not sure they woild get used airframes from there, additionally the US still needs to approve transfer.


USA may not be pleased that Turkey chose to buy SAM's from Russia, having been blocked from buying SAM's from USA. How much value does USA see in Turkey being a member of NATO with a large fighter force, though? Not enough to sanction F-16's from another source? I do recall one of the eastern European countries trying to buy Israeli F-16's but there was some kind of contractual problem whereby USA or LM would not agree to the sale. I wonder if USA would block a Turkish purchase of Belgian or Dutch or Danish or Norwegian F-16's.


An interesting side article, Turkey has received the last four CH-47s from an earlier order so clearly the removal from the F-35 program hasn’t stopped other equipment from continuing to come into the country from the US.

https://ahvalnews.com/helicopter/turkey ... elicopters
 
User avatar
Erebus
Posts: 1042
Joined: Tue Oct 20, 2015 2:40 am

Re: Potential Turkish F-35 Replacement?

Thu Aug 01, 2019 2:57 am

Ozair wrote:
art wrote:
Ozair wrote:

Turkey, or at least edrogen hasn't been very complimentary of Israel lately so not sure they woild get used airframes from there, additionally the US still needs to approve transfer.


USA may not be pleased that Turkey chose to buy SAM's from Russia, having been blocked from buying SAM's from USA. How much value does USA see in Turkey being a member of NATO with a large fighter force, though? Not enough to sanction F-16's from another source? I do recall one of the eastern European countries trying to buy Israeli F-16's but there was some kind of contractual problem whereby USA or LM would not agree to the sale. I wonder if USA would block a Turkish purchase of Belgian or Dutch or Danish or Norwegian F-16's.


An interesting side article, Turkey has received the last four CH-47s from an earlier order so clearly the removal from the F-35 program hasn’t stopped other equipment from continuing to come into the country from the US.

https://ahvalnews.com/helicopter/turkey ... elicopters


I would expect as much. If we take the position that the US blocked the F-35 on grounds that it might expose its advanced stealth capabilities to the Russians, I don't quite see why they should also block any older generation military hardware whose capabilities are probably well known to the Russians.
 
User avatar
SAS A340
Posts: 846
Joined: Fri Jul 28, 2000 5:59 am

Re: Potential Turkish F-35 Replacement?

Thu Aug 01, 2019 5:45 pm

Hasn't Lockheed Martin offer its "F-21" to compete in India’s tender for new fighters? India has bought the S-400, right?
It's not what u do,it's how u do it!
 
Ozair
Posts: 4254
Joined: Mon Jan 31, 2005 8:38 am

Re: Potential Turkish F-35 Replacement?

Thu Aug 01, 2019 9:13 pm

SAS A340 wrote:
Hasn't Lockheed Martin offer its "F-21" to compete in India’s tender for new fighters? India has bought the S-400, right?

LM with the F-21(16) and Boeing with the SH. It is a factor but India is in the process, or may have bene already, granted a waiver to acquire both platforms should they chose a US fighter. India isn't a member of NATO, nor a JSF partner and has a history of acquiring Russian equipment so the circumstances and political considerations are different.
 
YIMBY
Posts: 629
Joined: Tue Sep 20, 2016 4:32 pm

Re: Potential Turkish F-35 Replacement?

Mon Aug 05, 2019 6:01 am

Ozair wrote:
The F-4 are very old and probably need replacement so at the very least they likely need approx. 50 aircraft to replace the F-4 fleet.


Why do you say that Turkey needs more fighters? In another thread you claim that the Republic of Ireland (GDP on third of Turkey) does not need one single fighter and now you claim that Turkey needs 50 aircraft in addition to those existing ca 250 F-16 fighters, some of which are rather new and most are in flyable, updated configuration. That is already more than enough for credible self-defense.
 
Ozair
Posts: 4254
Joined: Mon Jan 31, 2005 8:38 am

Re: Potential Turkish F-35 Replacement?

Mon Aug 05, 2019 6:26 am

YIMBY wrote:
Ozair wrote:
The F-4 are very old and probably need replacement so at the very least they likely need approx. 50 aircraft to replace the F-4 fleet.


Why do you say that Turkey needs more fighters? In another thread you claim that the Republic of Ireland (GDP on third of Turkey) does not need one single fighter and now you claim that Turkey needs 50 aircraft in addition to those existing ca 250 F-16 fighters, some of which are rather new and most are in flyable, updated configuration. That is already more than enough for credible self-defense.


Did I say they need more fighters? More succinctly I said they want to replace their F-4s. Replacing those and the early F-16s with F-35s was the plan. I doubt they expect their force structure to increase over time and would/was likely to see it decrease as they brought in new capability in the form of 5th and advanced 4th gen.

The difference though between Turkey and Ireland is Turkey is a long standing member of NATO and for much of the 1950-90s expected/trained to use its air force against the Soviet Union and its allies. Today Turkey lives in an unstable region of the globe and national defence is a high priority. As unstable as the UK is politically right now ;) it isn’t planning on invading Ireland anytime soon, nor does Ireland have any serious border issues. Ireland also has essentially no air threat against it.

Hence to try and compare the air defence needs of Ireland and Turkey is really a waste of time, their requirements today and their history are so vastly different there are literally no similarities.
 
mig21umd
Posts: 313
Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2005 6:30 pm

Re: Potential Turkish F-35 Replacement?

Mon Aug 05, 2019 10:12 am

If they go Russian will they have an issue with possible Israeli tech being used on those planes or was that just an 'isolated' incident :?:
Once you have tasted flight, you will forever walk the earth with your eyes turned skyward, for there you long to return
 
User avatar
JerseyFlyer
Posts: 1380
Joined: Fri May 25, 2007 7:24 pm

Re: Potential Turkish F-35 Replacement?

Mon Aug 05, 2019 11:50 am

Having been blocked by the US in obtaining the newest and best US-built fighter, I don't see them ordering any new second-best offerings from the US.

Maybe second-hand F16s as a stop-gap. More likely new alternatives from Europe or Russia.
 
tu204
Posts: 1943
Joined: Wed Mar 08, 2006 12:36 am

Re: Potential Turkish F-35 Replacement?

Mon Aug 12, 2019 11:59 am

https://m.lenta.ru/news/2019/08/11/turcia/
(Use Google Translate)

Apparently Turkey is eyeing Su-35's.
I do not dream about movie stars, they must dream about me for I am real and they are not. - Alexander Popov
 
Draken21fx
Posts: 205
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 10:38 am

Re: Potential Turkish F-35 Replacement?

Wed Aug 14, 2019 10:04 am

Ozair wrote:
j-bird wrote:
...


...

Ultimately Turkey is keen for a domestic aircraft, the TF-X, but this is still on the drawing board and I personally don't have confidece Turkey has the ability to build it but if the Turkish Government is happy for the Air Force to contract for a few years waiting may be worth it. Noting as well that Greece is about to upgrade their fleet of F-16s to the V standard that may also put pressure on Turkey to acquire something sooner. The other issue is Turkey have built a Juan Carlos LHD that will now not have the F-35B flying off its deck and, other than very old Harriers it is unlikely they could/would acquire, there isn’t another fixed wing aircraft to operate from it.

Lots of questions and not a lot of confidence in which direction Turkey will go. Will be interesting to see what happens.


The Greek Air Force is the only one comparable to the Turkish one in the region but bearing in mind that Greece is coming out of a crisis which forced them to cut the numbers of fighters and postpone the modernisation of them I dont think that Turkey should be in much hurry to select the next generation fighter. The V upgrade is still in the drawing boards plus Greece will be offloading some of the older Block 30 variants.

Interesting times ahead indeed...
 
JayinKitsap
Posts: 1470
Joined: Sat Nov 26, 2005 9:55 am

Re: Potential Turkish F-35 Replacement?

Wed Aug 14, 2019 5:11 pm

Once Turkey orders the Su-35's the spare parts for all their F-16s will become quite dear.
 
art
Posts: 2930
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

Re: Potential Turkish F-35 Replacement?

Fri Aug 16, 2019 9:58 pm

tu204 wrote:
https://m.lenta.ru/news/2019/08/11/turcia/
(Use Google Translate)

Apparently Turkey is eyeing Su-35's.


I can't imagine how the white man in the White House will react if they do sign up for Sukhois.

But seriously, it might not be against the law but how does flying Su-35's square with being a member of NATO?
 
Ozair
Posts: 4254
Joined: Mon Jan 31, 2005 8:38 am

Re: Potential Turkish F-35 Replacement?

Sat Aug 17, 2019 1:12 am

art wrote:
tu204 wrote:
https://m.lenta.ru/news/2019/08/11/turcia/
(Use Google Translate)

Apparently Turkey is eyeing Su-35's.


I can't imagine how the white man in the White House will react if they do sign up for Sukhois.

But seriously, it might not be against the law but how does flying Su-35's square with being a member of NATO?

It won't get a Link 16 integration so unqlikely to meet NATO requirements. Turkey still has 250 F-16s though so they can just not allocate the Su-35s to NATO missions.
 
tu204
Posts: 1943
Joined: Wed Mar 08, 2006 12:36 am

Re: Potential Turkish F-35 Replacement?

Sat Aug 17, 2019 7:37 pm

art wrote:
tu204 wrote:
https://m.lenta.ru/news/2019/08/11/turcia/
(Use Google Translate)

Apparently Turkey is eyeing Su-35's.


I can't imagine how the white man in the White House will react if they do sign up for Sukhois.


:lol:

Well it's not like he can compain. If for whatever reason (be it valid or not) one party does not sell another party what they want and a third party is willing to sell, there ain't much grounds to complain on. ;)

What's annoying to me as a Russian citizen is that just like back in the USSR times these shopping sprees (not just military, but civilian as well - Nuclear power stations to name expensive toys, half of which are built by Rosatom in the EU) are majority financed by Russian government loans.
I guess at least it is better to finance Turkey's or the E.U.'s buying Russian goods than Cuba's or Africa's (who will never pay it off and lead to writing off billions of debt several decades down the road)...
I do not dream about movie stars, they must dream about me for I am real and they are not. - Alexander Popov
 
Pentaprism
Posts: 18
Joined: Mon Mar 11, 2019 1:12 pm

Re: Potential Turkish F-35 Replacement?

Fri Aug 30, 2019 12:29 pm

Well Erdogan just attended MAKS and spent time with SU-35's and SU-57's. The odds of seeing Russian Aircraft in Turkish Airforce just increased. It could be a bluff but that's what some thought about the S-400. If Turkey does order Russian Jets the US will have to think seriously about kicking them out of NATO.

But it's a big decision. Turkey has a large Army, excellent Geographic Strategic location and Incirlik is one of the Keystones of US Power in the Middle East.

It has reached the point where the US has as much or more to lose as Turkey and they are going to have to eat Crow and make some big concessions to Turkey if they want to keep them in NATO.

Can't wait to see how this plays out.
 
tu204
Posts: 1943
Joined: Wed Mar 08, 2006 12:36 am

Re: Potential Turkish F-35 Replacement?

Fri Aug 30, 2019 3:24 pm

https://m.lenta.ru/news/2019/08/30/sushki/ (in Russian, Google Translate)

Looks like Turkey is looking at the Su-57 and discussing a deal for them.

Key point is "If the U.S. don't want to give us F-35's, we'll take care of ourselves".

Plus Turkey is interested in joint production and a (Russian) loan for the purchase.
I do not dream about movie stars, they must dream about me for I am real and they are not. - Alexander Popov
 
art
Posts: 2930
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

Re: Potential Turkish F-35 Replacement?

Fri Aug 30, 2019 6:10 pm

Pentaprism wrote:
If Turkey does order Russian Jets the US will have to think seriously about kicking them out of NATO.


I did not realise that the NATO charter provided for a single member to decide who stays in NATO and who does not.
 
wingman
Posts: 3770
Joined: Thu May 27, 1999 4:25 am

Re: Potential Turkish F-35 Replacement?

Fri Aug 30, 2019 7:41 pm

Pentaprism wrote:
But it's a big decision. Turkey has a large Army, excellent Geographic Strategic location and Incirlik is one of the Keystones of US Power in the Middle East. Can't wait to see how this plays out.


Incirlik may be a keystone today but replaceable with an equally strategic base in the new Kurdish Republic if it comes to that. Talk about a hornet's nest. Russian drunks joining forces with Turkey's new Islamist Warrior forces it'll be hair on fire 24/7. You got Syrians and Iranians over here, Iraqis and Saudis over there, Yanks everywhere, disgruntled Greeks on the flip side..and Israelis, I almost forgot about them. I get a bad feeling.
 
Ozair
Posts: 4254
Joined: Mon Jan 31, 2005 8:38 am

Re: Potential Turkish F-35 Replacement?

Fri Sep 06, 2019 4:40 am

This is quite a well thought article that looks at the implications of Turkey acquiring a replacement aircraft for the F-35 and how a Russian aircraft is not a strong candidate.

This is why Turkey will not buy the Russian fighter jets

On August 27, Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan paid a one-day visit to Moscow to discuss bilateral relations and the latest developments in Syria with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin.

On the same day, the two leaders attended the inauguration ceremony of the annual Russian aviation and space fair (MAKS-2019) and expressed a mutual desire to cooperate in the aviation, space technology, and the defence industry sectors.

While touring in the fair, Putin seized the opportunity to introduce the latest achievements in Russia's aviation and space industry to his guest, including the Su-35 fighter jet, the Ka-52 military helicopter, the Mi-38 heavy helicopter and the Ka-62 medium helicopter among others.

Erdogan thus became the first foreign leader to see Russia's most advanced fighter aircraft the Su-57.

While inspecting the cockpit of the fifth-generation fighter, Putin pitched its technical capabilities to his Turkish guest.

The Turkish president made an off-handed comment about buying the Su-57. Putin who was standing near him paused for a moment before smiling and saying: "You can buy."

Two days later, the Turkish President said that Turkey will ensure it is able to buy and produce fighter jets and that Russian Su-35s and Su-57s are a possible alternative to US planes.

These developments came after the US denied Turkey the right to receive its F-35s or buy new ones, in addition to suspending its participation in the production of the most advanced multi-role stealth warplane in the world.

Turkey has already paid $1.4 billion to buy F-35 planes from the US. There are eight Turkish defence companies participating in the production process where they are responsible for 937 parts in the F-35, with 400 of those sole-sourced from Turkish firms.

Back in July, US President Donald Trump said that his country will not sell Turkey advanced F-35 fighter jets because Ankara bought the powerful Russian surface-to-air system.

The Pentagon started the process of kicking Ankara out from the F-35 programme claiming that the S-400 is incompatible with NATO's air defence systems and will compromise the operations of the F-35 fighter jets.

Since then, the US has maintained that Ankara cannot get both the S-400 and the F-35 at the same time.

But Trump signalled a reluctance to punish Turkey with major sanctions over its acquisition which leaves the door open to possible compromises in this issue in the future.

While Ankara is trying to use the Russian card to show the US that it has another option, Moscow has a different goal.

Playing on the Turkey-US rift with the hope of expanding the discord between the two NATO allies, Russia approached Turkish officials and expressed its willingness to sell Ankara its most advanced fighter jets.

Despite showing interest in Russia's Su-35 and Su-57, Ankara will not rush into buying any of those fighter jets. The fact that Turkey didn't officially submit any request to the Russian authorities until now supports such a claim. There are several reasons that can explain why Ankara wouldn't take a similar step when it comes to this situation.

Kicking Turkey completely out of the F-35 programme is a long process that is expected to extend until March 2020 – one month before the anticipated deployment of the S-400.

This means that there is still a slim chance that both Turkey and the US can work out their differences and reach a compromise regarding the issue.

Lately, Senator Lindsey Graham said the US and Turkey "must find a way to avoid the damage to the relationship that comes from Turkey activating the S-400 missile system".

"When it comes to Turkey, we are looking for a Win-Win, not a Lose-Lose," Graham wrote on Twitter.

The US has reportedly come with an offer to Turkey that if it doesn't activate the S-400, Washington will not sanction Ankara and will be willing to discuss a free-trade agreement with it.

The coming months are critical in terms of determining whether such a compromise will be reached. Only if both sides failed to work it out, then the discussion regarding the Russian fighters might become serious.

But even in this scenario, one has to take into consideration that the SU-35 is a 4.5th generation fighter, this means that it is not the proper alternative to the fifth general fighter F-35. Substituting the second with a less capable fighter will come with more cons than pros.

Moreover, buying a Russian fighter jet with the availability of the European alternatives may also create a new rift not with the US this time but with other NATO countries at a time when Ankara is in no need for a new conflict with its allies.

If Ankara will be compelled to buy a fourth-generation fighter, then it might be more reasonable and rewarding at the same time to buy a European fighter jet (Typhoon, Rafale, etc) rather than a Russian one. This will be compatible with both Ankara's geo-strategic and geo-economic orientation and can pave the way for creating great opportunities for both sides.

Not only does this option politically and economically strengthen the Turkish-European relations, but it also fortifies Ankara's position in the NATO and opens more doors for future military cooperation with European countries too.

Last Friday, Turkey's Foreign Minister implicitly pointed out that option when he said in a statement aired by the NTV broadcaster that, "Turkey remains committed to an agreement with the United States on its participation in the F-35 programme. We want to buy the F-35 fighters, but if we cannot do this, we will look for alternatives. We do not exclude any options, it does not specifically have to be Russia."

As for the Su-57, although it is a stealthy fifth generation fighter and might prove to be a convenient cheaper alternative to the F-35, Turkey would probably want to participate in the production process rather than just buying the jet, yet it would be impossible for Ankara to take such a step before completely losing hope in re-joining the F-35 programme and getting its jets.

Furthermore, Moscow would never agree to allow Ankara to participate in the production process of the Su-57. But even if it agrees, this means that Turkish defence companies will lose business opportunities with the US and Europe and risk US sanctions at the same time.

This scenario will leave implications that go far beyond the F-35 vs S-400 dispute and might seriously affect Turkey's defence sector, while jeopardising Ankara's ambitious plans of developing its own indigenous fifth-generation future fighter aircraft the TF-X.

In other words, accepting the Russian offers – regarding the Su-35 or the Su-57 – right now will block the chances of resolving the F-35 conflict between Turkey and the US.

Furthermore, buying a Russian fighter jet in these circumstances is expected to speed up Washington's sanctions against Ankara, and it is hard to imagine that Turkey would want to march by its own will towards this situation while there is still a hope that it can retain its fighters and resume its role in the F-35 programme.

https://www.alaraby.co.uk/english/indep ... ghter-jets
 
Ozair
Posts: 4254
Joined: Mon Jan 31, 2005 8:38 am

Re: Potential Turkish F-35 Replacement?

Thu Sep 19, 2019 10:33 pm

Makes one wonder if the decision to forego the F-35 for the S-400 by Turkey is such a wise idea…

Russian S-300 and S-400 air defense systems unable to detect Israeli warplanes flying over Syria

Russian S-300 and S-400 missile systems, which are considered one of the most advanced air defense weapons in the world, failed to detect Israeli warplanes flying over Damascus.

The Israeli news outlet NZIV, citing a number of military sources, published the flight route of the Israeli warplanes, which struck eastern Syria. As it turned out, the Israeli Air Force planes , which, according to some reports, were F-35s, not only entered the Syrian airspace, but also flew for almost several hundred kilometers over the area covered by Russian S-400 and Syrian S-300 air defense systems.

NZIV writes that another attack by the Israeli Air Force puts in question the effectiveness of Russian air and missile defense systems. The previous day, two Israeli warplanes were able to enter the Syrian air space without any hindrance. Given the fact that Russia had previously warned Netanyahu of its readiness to respond adequately, it seems that the Russian air defense systems simply did not notice the Israeli warplanes.

During the Israel’s attack, Russian warplanes also did not attempt to intercept the Israeli F-35s, which may indicate that Russian stealth detection systems simply failed.

http://uawire.org/media-russian-s-300-a ... vQ3jzX_rN4
 
tu204
Posts: 1943
Joined: Wed Mar 08, 2006 12:36 am

Re: Potential Turkish F-35 Replacement?

Fri Sep 20, 2019 8:48 am

Ozair wrote:
Makes one wonder if the decision to forego the F-35 for the S-400 by Turkey is such a wise idea…

Russian S-300 and S-400 air defense systems unable to detect Israeli warplanes flying over Syria

Russian S-300 and S-400 missile systems, which are considered one of the most advanced air defense weapons in the world, failed to detect Israeli warplanes flying over Damascus.

The Israeli news outlet NZIV, citing a number of military sources, published the flight route of the Israeli warplanes, which struck eastern Syria. As it turned out, the Israeli Air Force planes , which, according to some reports, were F-35s, not only entered the Syrian airspace, but also flew for almost several hundred kilometers over the area covered by Russian S-400 and Syrian S-300 air defense systems.

NZIV writes that another attack by the Israeli Air Force puts in question the effectiveness of Russian air and missile defense systems. The previous day, two Israeli warplanes were able to enter the Syrian air space without any hindrance. Given the fact that Russia had previously warned Netanyahu of its readiness to respond adequately, it seems that the Russian air defense systems simply did not notice the Israeli warplanes.

During the Israel’s attack, Russian warplanes also did not attempt to intercept the Israeli F-35s, which may indicate that Russian stealth detection systems simply failed.

http://uawire.org/media-russian-s-300-a ... vQ3jzX_rN4


I wouldn't go out and say that "Russians didn't see the Israelis, because if they did they would have shit them down".

Throughout this whole conflict in Syria there is obviously a gentleman's agreement not to touch each other. Backed up by the numerous incursions of Russian aircraft into Israeli airspace where Israelis didn't even protest the matter, much less shoot it down. But when a Syrian aircraft gets close to the border they goe blasty on it.
I do not dream about movie stars, they must dream about me for I am real and they are not. - Alexander Popov
 
Draken21fx
Posts: 205
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 10:38 am

Re: Potential Turkish F-35 Replacement?

Thu Oct 03, 2019 12:05 pm

Ozair wrote:
Makes one wonder if the decision to forego the F-35 for the S-400 by Turkey is such a wise idea…




Worth noting that none of the countries bordering Turkey operate F-35s nor are close on getting them. 4th generation fighters best case scenario.

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: frmrCapCadet and 28 guests

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos