At the Dubai Air Show, the director of the Russian Federal Service for Military-Technical Cooperation, Dmitry Shugayev, said, “The Russian side is ready to discuss with Iran cooperation in this sphere on condition that practical implementation of the projects…starts only after international restrictions are lifted.”

He noted that Iran is interested in a range of different equipment, including fighter jets, helicopters, tanks, naval vessels, coastal missile batteries, aircraft engines, armored vehicles, submarines, and spare parts to service existing equipment.

https://www.defense-aerospace.com/artic ... -iran.html

I am not au fait with what Iran is likely to want in terms of equipment but I assume Iran will want new fighters. What are they likely to buy?

In terms of non-Russian/non-Chinese manufacturers, could any of them supply anything with American content?

Assuming no new U.N. embargo is imposed, they'll probably be able to buy whatever they want, as long as there is no American components involved in whatever they buy. No doubt the U.S. will impose their own embargo and will add that any company that does sell any arms to Iran will be blocked from doing business with the U.S.A. and probably face U.S. sanctions.

Sound familiar ?

Luckily for Iran, none of the Russian or Chinese military equipment uses any parts made in the USA. Unfortunately for Iran, almost all other modern equipment uses parts from the USA in one way or another. Even Brasilian, Swedish or Indian products - technically "neutral" countries - usually have some US content.

jupiter2 wrote:

Assuming no new U.N. embargo is imposed, they'll probably be able to buy whatever they want, as long as there is no American components involved in whatever they buy. No doubt the U.S. will impose their own embargo and will add that any company that does sell any arms to Iran will be blocked from doing business with the U.S.A. and probably face U.S. sanctions.

Sound familiar ?

Yeah - US thinks its law should apply to other coubtries but the law of other countries should not apply to the US! Now ain't that just crazy.

So Iran might buy some MiG's or Sukhois. Or Rafales.

art wrote:

jupiter2 wrote:

Assuming no new U.N. embargo is imposed, they'll probably be able to buy whatever they want, as long as there is no American components involved in whatever they buy. No doubt the U.S. will impose their own embargo and will add that any company that does sell any arms to Iran will be blocked from doing business with the U.S.A. and probably face U.S. sanctions.

Sound familiar ?

Yeah - US thinks its law should apply to other coubtries but the law of other countries should not apply to the US! Now ain't that just crazy.

Honestly, most countries think that way, at least domestically, it's only the larger countries that actually get to practice it. What the U.S.A. does and gets away with, is simply because it is so economically powerful, but it's no worse than the crap that goes with most countries bending over backward to not "offend" China. There is some truly hypocritical things that nations do to appease the Chinese and keep that trade pumping.

art wrote:

So Iran might buy some MiG's or Sukhois. Or Rafales.

Do the Rafales have no American components? Can hardly believe that. So I don't think a Rafale is an option, even if France does want to deliver military goods to Iran (which I doubt). Trade is one thing, military goods is quite another.

art wrote:

I am not au fait with what Iran is likely to want in terms of equipment but I assume Iran will want new fighters. What are they likely to buy?

I’d say the Su-35 would be close to a certainty but could also see new MiG-29s. I doubt we will see a Chinese aircraft just yet and I don’t expect any western fighters either.

The US will probably add more sanctions on Russia if they sell anything significant to Iran.

European banks are thinking of setting up a competitor to Visa and Mastercard for similar reasons.

Dutchy wrote:

art wrote:

So Iran might buy some MiG's or Sukhois. Or Rafales.

Do the Rafales have no American components? Can hardly believe that. So I don't think a Rafale is an option, even if France does want to deliver military goods to Iran (which I doubt). Trade is one thing, military goods is quite another.

Even if there were no American parts in the Rafale, selling one to Iran will mean Dassault have sold their last Falcon in the US. No way they're going to sell them to Iran.

art wrote:

Yeah - US thinks its law should apply to other coubtries but the law of other countries should not apply to the US! Now ain't that just crazy.

So Iran might buy some MiG's or Sukhois. Or Rafales.

It's probably because the world's international framework was built upon the victory of Liberty and Democracy after World War 2, the US leading the charge in that regard. Some people have been quick to forget that.

DigitalSea wrote:

art wrote:

Yeah - US thinks its law should apply to other coubtries but the law of other countries should not apply to the US! Now ain't that just crazy.

So Iran might buy some MiG's or Sukhois. Or Rafales.

It's probably because the world's international framework was built upon the victory of Liberty and Democracy after World War 2, the US leading the charge in that regard. Some people have been quick to forget that.

Mmmm... About defending liberty and democracy, Germany invaded Poland 1st September, 1939. Germany had not attacked Britain but all the same Britain declared war on totalitarian Germany 2 days later in support of a democracy. USA (at least the population of the USA) did not want to get involved in defending liberty and democracy. I think you can hardly accuse USA of leading the charge to defend liberty and democracy. Indeed, the POTUS only declared war on the Japanese Empire 8th December, 1941. He did not declare war on Germany. Hitler declared war on the USA a few days later. Good judgement was not his strongest suit.

Setting aside politics...

I had the impression that the Iranians were not so excited with Russian equipment, and they've held on to American equipment for so long. That preference may make a Russian sale difficult, and by extension Chinese as well. I would think they would try to shop around the EU if possible, but yes, sanctions would probably kick in.

Can anyone elaborate on the Iranian aversion to Russian equipment? Is it real? If so, what caused it?

smithbs wrote:

Setting aside politics...

I had the impression that the Iranians were not so excited with Russian equipment, and they've held on to American equipment for so long. That preference may make a Russian sale difficult, and by extension Chinese as well. I would think they would try to shop around the EU if possible, but yes, sanctions would probably kick in.

Can anyone elaborate on the Iranian aversion to Russian equipment? Is it real? If so, what caused it?

Seems strange not buy from (to Iran) the enemy's enemy. No idea but could it be that buying from an atheist state (as USSR was) was unacceptable to Khomenei?

I can't vouch for military hardware, but on the civilian side of things Iranians hate Russian/Soviet-era aircraft. They had a bad run of fatal crashes some years ago, particularly on the Tu-154s that were leased in. They know European and US technology is good and reliable, and despite sanctions they have many years experience with them.

"Liberty and democracy", but I'd guess most people forget the 1953 coup in Iran..

art wrote:

DigitalSea wrote:

It's probably because the world's international framework was built upon the victory of Liberty and Democracy after World War 2, the US leading the charge in that regard. Some people have been quick to forget that.

Mmmm... About defending liberty and democracy, Germany invaded Poland 1st September, 1939. Germany had not attacked Britain but all the same Britain declared war on totalitarian Germany 2 days later in support of a democracy. USA (at least the population of the USA) did not want to get involved in defending liberty and democracy. I think you can hardly accuse USA of leading the charge to defend liberty and democracy. Indeed, the POTUS only declared war on the Japanese Empire 8th December, 1941. He did not declare war on Germany. Hitler declared war on the USA a few days later. Good judgement was not his strongest suit.

"After World War 2"

opticalilyushin wrote:

I can't vouch for military hardware, but on the civilian side of things Iranians hate Russian/Soviet-era aircraft. They had a bad run of fatal crashes some years ago, particularly on the Tu-154s that were leased in. They know European and US technology is good and reliable, and despite sanctions they have many years experience with them.

"Liberty and democracy", but I'd guess most people forget the 1953 coup in Iran..

I think you are right that Iranians are suspicious of Russian equipment. Frankly, if Iran had wanted to go deep into Russian equipment they could have done it decades ago, but that never really happened. The inventory they do have is rather tepid in quantity.

Say what you will about trying to buy weapons from the USA or Europe, but at least in Russia cash talks. But maybe that is also the problem - maybe Iran hasn't wanted to use their foreign currency (not enough rubles in the bank?) or maybe Russia hasn't wanted to finance anything?

I think the Chinese stand a good chance with a solution similar to the JF-17 with Pakistan, where Pakistan also got a full production line and full ability to support the plane.

I can see an export J-31 version as an interesting option.

art wrote:

DigitalSea wrote:

art wrote:

Yeah - US thinks its law should apply to other coubtries but the law of other countries should not apply to the US! Now ain't that just crazy.

So Iran might buy some MiG's or Sukhois. Or Rafales.

It's probably because the world's international framework was built upon the victory of Liberty and Democracy after World War 2, the US leading the charge in that regard. Some people have been quick to forget that.

Mmmm... About defending liberty and democracy, Germany invaded Poland 1st September, 1939. Germany had not attacked Britain but all the same Britain declared war on totalitarian Germany 2 days later in support of a democracy. USA (at least the population of the USA) did not want to get involved in defending liberty and democracy. I think you can hardly accuse USA of leading the charge to defend liberty and democracy. Indeed, the POTUS only declared war on the Japanese Empire 8th December, 1941. He did not declare war on Germany. Hitler declared war on the USA a few days later. Good judgement was not his strongest suit.

Pearl Harbor in fact did awaken the sleeping giant and feed him with terrible resolve. 2,710 Liberty Ships each 441' and 14,474 t. 175 Fletcher Class Destroyers, 24 Battleships, over 15K of P-51 Mustangs, 12,731 B-17, and 3,970 B-29 along with a lot of other types of ships and planes. Provided the bombs, fuel, and crew for all of them also. In all, $ 296B then (4.1T in todays) taking 35% of the GDP. US GDP jumped from 1.22T in 1939 to 2.35T in 1944, so a doubling in 5 years. Actually, FDR had great judgement and lead this incredible production growth, as well as getting the US focused on it with resolve. No cars, no tires, rationed food for 4 years - all for the war effort.

@DigitalSea

Sorry, you are right. Did not read your post with enough care.

@Jayinkitsap

Just in case I was not clear, I was referring to Hitler, not FDR, when saying judgement was not his strongest suit.

To get back on topic no western country will supply Iran with any arms.
Russia and Turkey probably will. I doubt the Chinese will sell them anything high tech, primarily because they do not want to upset the Sunni Arab states as well as Tramp and thus their trade with the US.
The biggest question though is how much can Iran spend on arms at its current economic state.
Over the last weeks they cut subsidies to basic necessities. A deeply unpopular measure that hit hard the poor of the country, the segment of the population that supports the Ayatollahs of the supreme council more than any other.
So I just do not see them actually buying any major systems in the near term.

Can they barter? Iran has oil.

Iran uses the oil revenues to finance its state budget. So whether it pays dollars or barrels for any military equipment it will have to make (even more) cuts elsewhere.

P1aneMad wrote:

Iran uses the oil revenues to finance its state budget. So whether it pays dollars or barrels for any military equipment it will have to make (even more) cuts elsewhere.

Sure, but is there anything unusual about that? Every government which spends money on street lights or fighters has that much less to spend on everything else. As a state much more likely to be attacked than most, I would be surprised if iIran did not prioritise strengthening its defences. Not saying they will, though.

As I have already mentioned over the last weeks they cut subsidies to basic necessities. A deeply unpopular measure that hit hard the poor of the country, the segment of the population that supports the Ayatollahs of the supreme council more than any other.
So unless the Ayatollahs reduce the safety net even more there wont be any major purchases. Cause they sure wont stop funding Shia jihadists in Yemen, Bahrain, Syria, Iraq and Lebanon.

P1aneMad wrote:

As I have already mentioned over the last weeks they cut subsidies to basic necessities. A deeply unpopular measure that hit hard the poor of the country, the segment of the population that supports the Ayatollahs of the supreme council more than any other.
So unless the Ayatollahs reduce the safety net even more there wont be any major purchases. Cause they sure wont stop funding Shia jihadists in Yemen, Bahrain, Syria, Iraq and Lebanon.

Gotcha. Promoting their politico-religious agenda abroad has a higher priority than re-equipping their air force.

art wrote:

P1aneMad wrote:

As I have already mentioned over the last weeks they cut subsidies to basic necessities. A deeply unpopular measure that hit hard the poor of the country, the segment of the population that supports the Ayatollahs of the supreme council more than any other.
So unless the Ayatollahs reduce the safety net even more there wont be any major purchases. Cause they sure wont stop funding Shia jihadists in Yemen, Bahrain, Syria, Iraq and Lebanon.

Gotcha. Promoting their politico-religious agenda abroad has a higher priority than re-equipping their air force.

Yes and more importantly that policy has impoverished large parts of their population.

P1aneMad wrote:

Yes and more importantly that policy has impoverished large parts of their population.

Ridiculous.

art wrote:

Gotcha. Promoting their politico-religious agenda abroad has a higher priority than re-equipping their air force.

There are two obstacles in the Iran-Russia relationship that prevent large weapon sales:
- Russia has no interest in a powerful Iran; even more so in regard to nuclear weapons and offensive capabilities. They very much prefer a stable ally that doesn't go on risky adventures. Selling SAM's, yes, selling stealth jets, no.
- Iran only has oil and gas to offer for trading, which Russia already has plenty of. And the sanctions resulted in Iran using old and outdated tech, so other countries can easily underbid Iran.
Iran's government also happens to run a fairly nationalistic policy and I don't think they want to be seen as Putin's puppet. When Russia based bombers in Iran for airstrikes in Syria, they both tried to create as little attention as possible.

Looking further, China still has strong relations with the west. Their foreign policy has focused on long-term economic measures, such as buying ports, building railroads, operating mines. Again, I don't think Iran wants to sell their precious oil wells to China. Oil and gas, sure, but not the infrastructure. I think there may be some undercover cooperation, particularly in the field of drone technology, but not being enemies doesn't make them friends either.

mxaxai wrote:

P1aneMad wrote:

Yes and more importantly that policy has impoverished large parts of their population.

Ridiculous.

You should really get informed about the economic situation in Iran and the mass protests happening lately NOT by the middle class demanding freedom but by the religious poor demanding better leaving conditions and price subsidies for necessities.

P1aneMad wrote:

mxaxai wrote:

P1aneMad wrote:

Yes and more importantly that policy has impoverished large parts of their population.

Ridiculous.

You should really get informed about the economic situation in Iran and the mass protests happening lately NOT by the middle class demanding freedom but by the religious poor demanding better leaving conditions and price subsidies for necessities.

I don't doubt that, but it's NOT caused by their own foreign policy.

The Russians will want payment. I believe it is more realistic that they will get some used MiG-29, Su-25 and Su-24. On the helicopter side newer stuff might be more likely. Used and new Mi-8 variants, maybe even some Mi-24 or Mi-28 variants?

Shia jihadists ? I guess geopolitics is too complicated for some people.

Also, Iran had no problem selling/renting oil fields, before Trump ruined it all Total was going to exploit a large oil and gas field with Chinese investors.

Aesma wrote:

Shia jihadists ? I guess geopolitics is too complicated for some people.

Also, Iran had no problem selling/renting oil fields, before Trump ruined it all Total was going to exploit a large oil and gas field with Chinese investors.

Thankfully we live in the age of information so it would be real easy for you to find out how Iran is propping up if not outright controlling Shia jihadists in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Bahrain, Yemen.
But you can still blame all that on Trump even though it has been going on for decades now.

mxaxai wrote:

P1aneMad wrote:

mxaxai wrote:

Ridiculous.

You should really get informed about the economic situation in Iran and the mass protests happening lately NOT by the middle class demanding freedom but by the religious poor demanding better leaving conditions and price subsidies for necessities.

I don't doubt that, but it's NOT caused by their own foreign policy.

Iran's foreign policy in Middle East takes up billions of dollars to fund, arm and support the various Shia groups and fractions.
Nobody is saying the Sunnis are any better but they seem to be able to afford it unlike today's Iran..

VSMUT wrote:

The Russians will want payment. I believe it is more realistic that they will get some used MiG-29, Su-25 and Su-24. On the helicopter side newer stuff might be more likely. Used and new Mi-8 variants, maybe even some Mi-24 or Mi-28 variants?

That would make a lot of sense.

P1aneMad wrote:

VSMUT wrote:

The Russians will want payment. I believe it is more realistic that they will get some used MiG-29, Su-25 and Su-24. On the helicopter side newer stuff might be more likely. Used and new Mi-8 variants, maybe even some Mi-24 or Mi-28 variants?

That would make a lot of sense.

You can probably throw in some Su-17/22 if there are still some lying around.
From China, probably a bunch of advanced technology to be paired with local products.

Iran's future will be secured if they give into the PetroDollar, their resistance and reliance on Russia and China is a fool's gambit.

VSMUT wrote:

P1aneMad wrote:

VSMUT wrote:

The Russians will want payment. I believe it is more realistic that they will get some used MiG-29, Su-25 and Su-24. On the helicopter side newer stuff might be more likely. Used and new Mi-8 variants, maybe even some Mi-24 or Mi-28 variants?

That would make a lot of sense.

You can probably throw in some Su-17/22 if there are still some lying around.
From China, probably a bunch of advanced technology to be paired with local products.

Iran already parked their Fitter fleet. Most spare parts have gone to Syria, as well as reportedly a few airframes.

mxaxai wrote:

I don't doubt that, but it's NOT caused by their own foreign policy.

Didn't Iran's foreign policy decisions cause the sanctions affecting them now?

i don't see China having any problem selling them whatever they can afford if it gains them more influence.

Good roundup of the situation in Iran:

Ιran on the Brink
https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2019/11/iran_on_the_brink.html

Spacepope wrote:

VSMUT wrote:

P1aneMad wrote:

That would make a lot of sense.

You can probably throw in some Su-17/22 if there are still some lying around.
From China, probably a bunch of advanced technology to be paired with local products.

Iran already parked their Fitter fleet. Most spare parts have gone to Syria, as well as reportedly a few airframes.

The revolutionary guard corps started overhauling, upgrading and returning to service its fleet in the summer of 2018.

Que the theme music from Top Gun as the Iranian equivalent of “Maverick” climbs into the cockpit of an F-14 and performs a mock aerial dogfight against a MiG-29.

P1aneMad wrote:

Good roundup of the situation in Iran:

Ιran on the Brink
https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2019/11/iran_on_the_brink.html

Yes, a good article. Iran is being squeezed hard.

P1aneMad wrote:

Aesma wrote:

Shia jihadists ? I guess geopolitics is too complicated for some people.

Also, Iran had no problem selling/renting oil fields, before Trump ruined it all Total was going to exploit a large oil and gas field with Chinese investors.

Thankfully we live in the age of information so it would be real easy for you to find out how Iran is propping up if not outright controlling Shia jihadists in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Bahrain, Yemen.
But you can still blame all that on Trump even though it has been going on for decades now.

Applying the term "jihadis" to Shias is almost unheard of. For all intents and purpose jihadis = Sunnis. Supported by Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE, Turkey, all our supposed allies and Trump's best buddies.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jihadism#Shia_jihad

In the real world Sunnis from Saudi Arabia downed the WTC, and Sunnis caused every islamist terrorist attack in the West, but Iran is somehow the enemy.

I'm sorry for what happens in the Middle East but I don't think the West should have any involvement there, it only worsens the situation.

I'm convinced that supporting Saudi Arabia and others directly leads to terrorist attacks in the West, am I allowed to worry about that ? Do you dispute it ?