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flyingturtle
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Re: SpaceX - Tests, Launches, Developments - 2020

Sat May 30, 2020 8:02 pm

That was great to watch. Did you catch Bob Behnken grabbing for the dinosaur balloon? The presumed high-tech Gravity Assessment Device?

It has been a long journey... Elon Musk smoking a joint, then the launch escape system exploding, but then SpaceX still beat Boeing.
Reading accident reports is what calms me down
 
rfields5421
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Re: SpaceX - Tests, Launches, Developments - 2020

Sat May 30, 2020 8:06 pm

SpaceX may have beat Boeing, but I want BOTH companies to be successful at many, many future launches.

I'm still PO'd that I could not take PanAm to the moon in 2001 !!!!
Not all who wander are lost.
 
Jet-lagged
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Re: SpaceX - Tests, Launches, Developments - 2020

Sat May 30, 2020 8:06 pm

What a great event to witness. I had forgotten about it (shame on me!) but my kids had it on the TV. They were thrilled; the first time they saw a rocket launch live.
 
GDB
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Re: SpaceX - Tests, Launches, Developments - 2020

Sat May 30, 2020 8:20 pm

rfields5421 wrote:
59 years and 25 days ago I watched a tiny B&W TV screen in my school auditorium with about 230 other kids and the staff as Alan Shepard took the first ride into space from the US.

Wonderful to see the US back into the launch business, and Delos David "D. D." Harriman would be so proud !!!


And it seems the commander of this outstanding mission today, had that in mind with his 'light this candle' comment right before launch.
Certainly made me think of Shepard.
I had friends, some only generally curious about space, texting to say they are following this, then others also who I didn't really think would be interested too.

SpaceX are not only greatly cutting the cost of access to space, they are making it interesting and even entertaining beyond the core audience.

I must admit after Wednesday I did not get my hopes up today until around T-30 when they were clearly much more confident about the weather.

Fantastic, hope the rest of the trip and docking with ISS goes as well as this.
(Including the 1st stage recovery cherry on the top).
 
GDB
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Re: SpaceX - Tests, Launches, Developments - 2020

Sat May 30, 2020 8:22 pm

Double post - delete
 
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Dutchy
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Re: SpaceX - Tests, Launches, Developments - 2020

Sat May 30, 2020 9:12 pm

Very nice, well done.

Image

link
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
rfields5421
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Re: SpaceX - Tests, Launches, Developments - 2020

Sat May 30, 2020 9:15 pm

At one point, say 10 minutes until launch, my wife commented that the astronaut closest to the camera was twiddling his thumbs, his hands firmly in his lap to make sure he did not touch anything. I'm sure he was watching displays and making sure everything he saw was the way it was supposed to be.

Reminded me of a pilot many years ago who said parts of a flight were supposed to be boring. Just sitting there and watching as the flight unfolded. It was when it wasn't boring and he was having to do things that meant there was something seriously wrong. I'm sure at times the guys feel they are just a passenger waiting on the work of thousands of others to be perfect and let them take this amazing journey.

Several years ago on the TV show Survivor, one of the contestants had been an astronaut - Daniel T Barry. He had spent a total of 30 and a half days in space. Once after it was revealed his was an astronaut, he was asked what it was like. He said that among other things, he had the ultimate "what have you done since high school?" answer.

"Oh, I flew on the Space Shuttle and did a six hour spacewalk a couple years ago, and I'm going up for a longer mission next year."

Amazing part - he was just ONE YEAR behind me in high school - though our two schools in Louisiana were half the state apart.
Not all who wander are lost.
 
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Tugger
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Re: SpaceX - Tests, Launches, Developments - 2020

Sat May 30, 2020 10:16 pm

I am just amazingly proud for the US, SpaceX, NASA, the McKenzie brothers :biggrin: , and all the people and hard work that made this possible. On a day when a lot of things suck, some thing went wonderfully right.

So thanks to everyone mentioned above for making today a better day and the future just a little bit brighter.



Tugg
I don’t know that I am unafraid to be myself, but it is hard to be somebody else. - W. Shatner
There are many kinds of sentences that we think state facts about the world but that are really just expressions of our attitudes. - F. Ramsey
 
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Nomadd
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Re: SpaceX - Tests, Launches, Developments - 2020

Sun May 31, 2020 1:29 am

It was a pretty good launch yesterday too. I found a pretty good size piece 1200 feet from the pad. A new Starship record.
You could see one of the 9M dishes at Boca Chica tracking Dragon today.
 
Kent350787
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Re: SpaceX - Tests, Launches, Developments - 2020

Sun May 31, 2020 1:50 am

AS a kids who grew up with Apollo missions, this was great to see. As an adult almost in tears on parts of my KSC visit in January, this was great to see :)

Congratualtions to all involved - successful crew module launch and successful 1st stage landing!
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LabQuest
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Re: SpaceX - Tests, Launches, Developments - 2020

Sun May 31, 2020 1:52 am

An interesting tidbit is that both crew members' wives are also astronauts. Now that's cool.
 
DarkKnight5
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Re: SpaceX - Tests, Launches, Developments - 2020

Sun May 31, 2020 2:20 am

flyingturtle wrote:
That was great to watch. Did you catch Bob Behnken grabbing for the dinosaur balloon? The presumed high-tech Gravity Assessment Device?

It has been a long journey... Elon Musk smoking a joint, then the launch escape system exploding, but then SpaceX still beat Boeing.

Turns out it’s one of their boys’ toys. Apparently both kids love dinosaurs. This day long live stream has been awesome.
 
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Francoflier
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Re: SpaceX - Tests, Launches, Developments - 2020

Sun May 31, 2020 5:38 am

Congrats to NASA and SpaceX, it was good to see some things are still going the right way in this World.

The Wikipedia page for DM-2 mentions that NASA's estimate for the Loss Of Crew probability for the flight was (is) 1 in 276, and that the threshold for a manned space mission is set at 1 in 270...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crew_Dragon_Demo-2

Despite the advances in space technology, getting up there is still insanely dangerous. To put it in perspective, such a probability applied to commercial aviation would amount to over 300 fatal crashes every day. :scared:
There's still few other professions that are as dangerous as being an astronaut, even if their exposure to the risk is limited to a handful of times.

Kudos to the crews who put their lives on the line for the advancement of science and society.
I'll do my own airline. With Blackjack. And hookers. In fact, forget the airline.
 
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Tugger
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Re: SpaceX - Tests, Launches, Developments - 2020

Sun May 31, 2020 6:37 am

Got to see the ISS and the following/chasing Crew Dragon capsule tonight! Very cool. 8-)

Tugg
I don’t know that I am unafraid to be myself, but it is hard to be somebody else. - W. Shatner
There are many kinds of sentences that we think state facts about the world but that are really just expressions of our attitudes. - F. Ramsey
 
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flyingturtle
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Re: SpaceX - Tests, Launches, Developments - 2020

Sun May 31, 2020 9:44 am

Nomadd wrote:
I found a pretty good size piece 1200 feet from the pad.


If you have patience enough, you could build a starhopper from the things you find.
Reading accident reports is what calms me down
 
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Aaron747
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Re: SpaceX - Tests, Launches, Developments - 2020

Sun May 31, 2020 2:34 pm

Tugger wrote:
Got to see the ISS and the following/chasing Crew Dragon capsule tonight! Very cool. 8-)

Tugg


Me too! And just watched the docking coverage. Splendid job by all!
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
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Nomadd
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Re: SpaceX - Tests, Launches, Developments - 2020

Sun May 31, 2020 4:06 pm

flyingturtle wrote:
Nomadd wrote:
I found a pretty good size piece 1200 feet from the pad.


If you have patience enough, you could build a starhopper from the things you find.

I asked the SpaceX crew cleaning up the debris to leave it every time one blew up so I could do that. They said Fish and Wildlfe wouldn't let them.
 
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flyingturtle
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Re: SpaceX - Tests, Launches, Developments - 2020

Sun May 31, 2020 4:33 pm

During the next minutes, the astronaughties Bob and Doug will be welcomed to the ISS. There is a live feed on the SpaceX website.


Nomadd wrote:
flyingturtle wrote:
Nomadd wrote:
I found a pretty good size piece 1200 feet from the pad.


If you have patience enough, you could build a starhopper from the things you find.

I asked the SpaceX crew cleaning up the debris to leave it every time one blew up so I could do that. They said Fish and Wildlfe wouldn't let them.


Oh, damn. :frown:
Reading accident reports is what calms me down
 
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Erebus
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Re: SpaceX - Tests, Launches, Developments - 2020

Sun May 31, 2020 6:22 pm

Congrats to SpaceX for successfully getting America back into crewed spaceflight. This was a very exciting moment for me. I wasn't around to see the first flight of the Shuttle but this for sure felt like it for me.

Watched the whole welcome ceremony with Bob and Doug alongside the ISS crew. I'm as excited as anyone who wants to see this usher in a new era of space exploration. It was nice to see the NASA admin and dignitaries at mission control talk about America going to go to the moon and all that through unity. But I kind of felt bad for what little acknowledgement they showed of the Russians there in the video feed. I was hoping for at least a polite thank you to the Russians for keeping the LEO accessible to Americans til this day but sadly not.
 
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casinterest
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Re: SpaceX - Tests, Launches, Developments - 2020

Sun May 31, 2020 9:21 pm

Congratulations to Spacex and NASA. I have been catching up today on everything . I watched the launch with my kids yesterday and it was amazing to feel the chills. Maybe it is because I can remember Challenger, Columbia, and the last shuttle launch. However this was truly great having watch Spacex progress over the years. I can't wait to see what the future holds.

With the reduced costs, I am wondering if we will see a new private space station soon ? Any thoughts?
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
ixemctdca
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Re: SpaceX - Tests, Launches, Developments - 2020

Sun May 31, 2020 9:51 pm

casinterest wrote:
With the reduced costs, I am wondering if we will see a new private space station soon ? Any thoughts?

With the US government focussed on getting to the Moon & Musk wanting to get to Mars, I think a space station around either of those might happen (especially if partially government funded) first.

That said there's a lot of potentially interesting outcomes from R&D in LEO, so we might see a Biosciences or Electronics giant with sufficiently deep pockets foot the bill for one.
-ixemctdca
 
DarkKnight5
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Re: SpaceX - Tests, Launches, Developments - 2020

Mon Jun 01, 2020 3:52 am

casinterest wrote:
Congratulations to Spacex and NASA. I have been catching up today on everything . I watched the launch with my kids yesterday and it was amazing to feel the chills. Maybe it is because I can remember Challenger, Columbia, and the last shuttle launch. However this was truly great having watch Spacex progress over the years. I can't wait to see what the future holds.

With the reduced costs, I am wondering if we will see a new private space station soon ? Any thoughts?

I think there are very few, if any, private concerns with the enough capital to risk a fully private space station. Even Amazon / Blue Origin could bankrupt themselves trying to get a commercially viable (I.e, profitable) station operating. I just don’t know what product it would produce that would make them enough money to justify the investment.

I could see NASA or a group of governments establishing a station with the only intention of renting it out commercially to develop space businesses, but even that seems like a stretch at this point.
 
rfields5421
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Re: SpaceX - Tests, Launches, Developments - 2020

Mon Jun 01, 2020 12:39 pm

The major problem with space is the amount of cubic dollars required.

Even all the money SpaceX and Boeing have spent in the past 10+ years on manned flight is just pennies in a huge bucket compared to the total amounts needed. A manned space station with a moderate - say 50 person capacity - is going to cost on the order of ten times the entire US national debt. It will cost more than the value of ALL the companies on the NYSE to build, staff and maintain.

Mega-rich is one thing, but even mega-rich is below poverty level when it comes to long term serious occupancy in space.

But who knows, some quantum shift in physics and the concept of finance might happen. Or technology. The beauty of science fiction is always the fiction part where the costs magically disappear.
Not all who wander are lost.
 
mxaxai
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Re: SpaceX - Tests, Launches, Developments - 2020

Mon Jun 01, 2020 3:03 pm

rfields5421 wrote:
A manned space station with a moderate - say 50 person capacity - is going to cost on the order of ten times the entire US national debt. It will cost more than the value of ALL the companies on the NYSE to build, staff and maintain.

That's a little over the top. The ISS cost "only" $150 billion to build and it's hardly designed with cost in mind. At ~40 launches with modules on board, you could launch a private ISS replica for $2 billion, plus the hardware cost for each module.

However, the fundamental issue remains that it's relatively expensive for the potential revenue. The ISS is open to private enterprises and researchers but the demand is fairly limited. Most of the projects are for fundamental science, which is traditionally the realm of government funded research. A private space station will only become reality when somebody starts producing stuff in space that cannot be produced on earth and is sufficiently valuable (> 20,000 $/kg). Maybe pharmaceutical drugs or similar. But you wouldn't need 50 crew, 1-2 should suffice.
 
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flyingturtle
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Re: SpaceX - Tests, Launches, Developments - 2020

Mon Jun 01, 2020 4:29 pm

Reading something about the ISS, I learned that one of the crucial modules was neither completed nor flown to the ISS. It would have allowed to subject 0.62 cm large objects to various accelerations from 0 to 2 g, allowing either alternate experiments (zero gravity, earth gravity) or performing the control experiments on the ISS.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Centrifug ... ons_Module
Reading accident reports is what calms me down
 
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Nomadd
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Re: SpaceX - Tests, Launches, Developments - 2020

Mon Jun 01, 2020 4:42 pm

rfields5421 wrote:
The major problem with space is the amount of cubic dollars required.

Even all the money SpaceX and Boeing have spent in the past 10+ years on manned flight is just pennies in a huge bucket compared to the total amounts needed. A manned space station with a moderate - say 50 person capacity - is going to cost on the order of ten times the entire US national debt. It will cost more than the value of ALL the companies on the NYSE to build, staff and maintain.

Mega-rich is one thing, but even mega-rich is below poverty level when it comes to long term serious occupancy in space.

But who knows, some quantum shift in physics and the concept of finance might happen. Or technology. The beauty of science fiction is always the fiction part where the costs magically disappear.

The national debt of who? Andorra? Do you have any idea what the U. S. national debt is? That could be the most insanely inaccurate statement I've ever seen, and that's saying something for this forum.
A single Starship could serve as a station and come back down for reuse when it's done, and ten times the nation debt would be $250 trillion, which would be enough to build and launch more than 10 million Starships. And, even if you only used them to deploy a station, that would be enough payload to launch 1,000 Ford class aircraft carriers.

And, even if you don't believe in Starship, a 2,000 ton station would run about $4 billion in Falcon Heavy launch costs. Give station design to someone whose main purpose isn't getting congressional votes, and I guarantee you won't be spending the cost of a 100,000 ton cruise ship to build a small aluminum can that holds air and has a few systems installed.
Last edited by Nomadd on Mon Jun 01, 2020 4:57 pm, edited 5 times in total.
 
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Stitch
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Re: SpaceX - Tests, Launches, Developments - 2020

Mon Jun 01, 2020 4:45 pm

mxaxai wrote:
That's a little over the top. The ISS cost "only" $150 billion to build and it's hardly designed with cost in mind. At ~40 launches with modules on board, you could launch a private ISS replica for $2 billion, plus the hardware cost for each module.


You still have to assemble the thing in orbit and I am not sure you can do that from a capsule since you would want a crane/arm and such to help move things and your assembly crew will need MMVs to be able to operate for hours at a time.

You probably would not need a full-size shuttle, but something like a larger and manned X-37 that can hold the assembly crew, their tools and suits and have a crane / arm and platform that the assembly crew can use to begin assembly.
 
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Phosphorus
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Re: SpaceX - Tests, Launches, Developments - 2020

Mon Jun 01, 2020 6:22 pm

Stitch wrote:
mxaxai wrote:
That's a little over the top. The ISS cost "only" $150 billion to build and it's hardly designed with cost in mind. At ~40 launches with modules on board, you could launch a private ISS replica for $2 billion, plus the hardware cost for each module.


You still have to assemble the thing in orbit and I am not sure you can do that from a capsule since you would want a crane/arm and such to help move things and your assembly crew will need MMVs to be able to operate for hours at a time.

You probably would not need a full-size shuttle, but something like a larger and manned X-37 that can hold the assembly crew, their tools and suits and have a crane / arm and platform that the assembly crew can use to begin assembly.

Using Shuttle to BOTH launch modules and ferry assembly crew was a compromise. Shuttle HAD to be used, because it was there. Going Skylab way -- several unmanned launches of big modules, but with better LEO tech than what 1970's had to offer -- including automatic docking technology, that Progress and Soyuz had available -- would yield a complete station quick. It was politically impossible to do it in 1990's -- as only Energia was big enough to throw huge modules to LEO, and then US participation would have been limited to visiting on Shuttles, and paying Russia to build the station AND to provide crew rotation/lifeboat capability. So modules had to be designed to fit into Shuttle bay, and then it meant a lot of launches to bring it all up there. Eventually, plenty of stuff had to be canceled as we all know now.

tl;dr: you can throw large modules up there, let them dock automatically, and then send crews with small vehicles to complete assembly. It was not done with ISS, because politics.
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Tugger
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Re: SpaceX - Tests, Launches, Developments - 2020

Mon Jun 01, 2020 8:28 pm

Phosphorus wrote:
Using Shuttle to BOTH launch modules and ferry assembly crew was a compromise. Shuttle HAD to be used, because it was there. Going Skylab way -- several unmanned launches of big modules, but with better LEO tech than what 1970's had to offer -- including automatic docking technology, that Progress and Soyuz had available -- would yield a complete station quick. It was politically impossible to do it in 1990's -- as only Energia was big enough to throw huge modules to LEO, and then US participation would have been limited to visiting on Shuttles, and paying Russia to build the station AND to provide crew rotation/lifeboat capability. So modules had to be designed to fit into Shuttle bay, and then it meant a lot of launches to bring it all up there. Eventually, plenty of stuff had to be canceled as we all know now.

tl;dr: you can throw large modules up there, let them dock automatically, and then send crews with small vehicles to complete assembly. It was not done with ISS, because politics.

Great post.

So true and we forget all this.

Tugg
I don’t know that I am unafraid to be myself, but it is hard to be somebody else. - W. Shatner
There are many kinds of sentences that we think state facts about the world but that are really just expressions of our attitudes. - F. Ramsey
 
DarkKnight5
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Re: SpaceX - Tests, Launches, Developments - 2020

Tue Jun 02, 2020 2:31 am

Nomadd wrote:
rfields5421 wrote:
The major problem with space is the amount of cubic dollars required.

Even all the money SpaceX and Boeing have spent in the past 10+ years on manned flight is just pennies in a huge bucket compared to the total amounts needed. A manned space station with a moderate - say 50 person capacity - is going to cost on the order of ten times the entire US national debt. It will cost more than the value of ALL the companies on the NYSE to build, staff and maintain.

Mega-rich is one thing, but even mega-rich is below poverty level when it comes to long term serious occupancy in space.

But who knows, some quantum shift in physics and the concept of finance might happen. Or technology. The beauty of science fiction is always the fiction part where the costs magically disappear.

The national debt of who? Andorra? Do you have any idea what the U. S. national debt is? That could be the most insanely inaccurate statement I've ever seen, and that's saying something for this forum.
A single Starship could serve as a station and come back down for reuse when it's done, and ten times the nation debt would be $250 trillion, which would be enough to build and launch more than 10 million Starships. And, even if you only used them to deploy a station, that would be enough payload to launch 1,000 Ford class aircraft carriers.

And, even if you don't believe in Starship, a 2,000 ton station would run about $4 billion in Falcon Heavy launch costs. Give station design to someone whose main purpose isn't getting congressional votes, and I guarantee you won't be spending the cost of a 100,000 ton cruise ship to build a small aluminum can that holds air and has a few systems installed.

What are “maths”? Turns out, nobody knows. Maths are like water. Is water real? We don’t think so.
 
DarkKnight5
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Re: SpaceX - Tests, Launches, Developments - 2020

Tue Jun 02, 2020 2:34 am

Stitch wrote:
mxaxai wrote:
That's a little over the top. The ISS cost "only" $150 billion to build and it's hardly designed with cost in mind. At ~40 launches with modules on board, you could launch a private ISS replica for $2 billion, plus the hardware cost for each module.


You still have to assemble the thing in orbit and I am not sure you can do that from a capsule since you would want a crane/arm and such to help move things and your assembly crew will need MMVs to be able to operate for hours at a time.

You probably would not need a full-size shuttle, but something like a larger and manned X-37 that can hold the assembly crew, their tools and suits and have a crane / arm and platform that the assembly crew can use to begin assembly.

I think you could autonomously dock and even equalize pressure between segments without too much fuss. There would definitely be EVA needs, but you could get two, three, or four segments up and running autonomously and then bring on crew for EVA’s as needed as more segments are added. Challenging, sure. But it’s going to be challenging no matter what.
 
GDB
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Re: SpaceX - Tests, Launches, Developments - 2020

Tue Jun 02, 2020 8:28 am

What are “maths”? Turns out, nobody knows. Maths are like water. Is water real? We don’t think so.

Well. 'maths' is how those in the UK, which includes England, say this English word.

Great to see the docking with ISS.
While this is the start of the US regaining manned ability and not reliant of Soyuz, how about Progress? I note in the broadcast from Endeavour they were also carrying cargo, just last week, Japan launched a cargo module to ISS and of course there are the Space X and Antares vehicles. So where does that leave the Progress modules?
I don't doubt that they will still fly them, just fewer needed, just as the case will be with Soyuz.

There have been a lot of proposals from Russia to replace Soyuz over the years but none have ever got anywhere.
With the brand new, hi tech manned Dragon now attached to the ISS, will this speed up or just create pressure from the Russians to finally replace Soyuz/Progress?
 
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Phosphorus
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Re: SpaceX - Tests, Launches, Developments - 2020

Tue Jun 02, 2020 9:08 am

Replacing Progress is somewhat tricky, as the new vehicle has to be compatible with all the existing spacial constraints for docking (it gets crowded at times at RusOS with all the visiting vehicles). It has to retain autonomous docking capabilities of Progress/Soyuz era, and capability to refuel Zvezda (and by extension, Zarya; whose engines appear to be not needed anymore, but whose tanks are used as additional storage to Zvezda's).
All of these criteria have been successfully met by ATV. But:
1) ATV is already retired
2) ATV took a heavy LV to launch
3) ATV was launching once a year, and that was basically enough
If you don't go up in size, to ATV-sized vehicle, what's the point of replacing Progress? It works fine, no?
If you go up in size, to ATV-sized vehicle, or beyond, you need a heavy LV. Which LV would that be? Proton family is facing retirement, designing a new vehicle around it would be a waste. Angara A5? That would make more sense.
If you deliver all supplies in a single 20-ton shot, you:
a) lose flexibility. you no longer have regular "shuttle" service to orbit, you need to pack everything far in advance
b) in case of mishap, you lose a year worth of supplies

Last, not least. Retiring Progress deprives OEM (Energia Corp.) of a fair chunk of revenue, and also takes a lot of wind out of Soyuz booster program. While demanding a lot of upfront cash for new VV development, and reliance on (relatively unproven) Angara A5.
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mxaxai
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Re: SpaceX - Tests, Launches, Developments - 2020

Tue Jun 02, 2020 12:28 pm

Phosphorus wrote:
All of these criteria have been successfully met by ATV. But:
1) ATV is already retired
2) ATV took a heavy LV to launch
3) ATV was launching once a year, and that was basically enough

To be fair, ATV was a political decision in every aspect. Europe was expected to provide some sort of launch capability as part of their participation in the ISS. With Ariane 5 being the European launcher of the 2000s, it was only natural to exploit its large capacity. Once NASA had their CRS program running, ATV wasn't really competitive so they struck a deal to include ESA in the Orion program instead.
 
DarkKnight5
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Re: SpaceX - Tests, Launches, Developments - 2020

Tue Jun 02, 2020 12:29 pm

When you wake up and find someone thinks you don’t know England is in the UK when you used “maths” twice in an obviously satirical post in which you also claimed water is poorly understood or doesn’t exist.

I read somewhere, I think at ARS, maybe up thread I don’t know, that the thrust to weight ratio of F9 with Dragon is something like 1.2:1. That matches my eyes where the rocket just groans off the pad. I suppose that’s optimal for human flight as the impulse of going from 1G to 2G in an instant would be a hell of a kick in the back. Always makes me picker as an viewer just praying it doesn’t tip over.
 
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Phosphorus
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Re: SpaceX - Tests, Launches, Developments - 2020

Tue Jun 02, 2020 1:40 pm

mxaxai wrote:
Phosphorus wrote:
All of these criteria have been successfully met by ATV. But:
1) ATV is already retired
2) ATV took a heavy LV to launch
3) ATV was launching once a year, and that was basically enough

To be fair, ATV was a political decision in every aspect. Europe was expected to provide some sort of launch capability as part of their participation in the ISS. With Ariane 5 being the European launcher of the 2000s, it was only natural to exploit its large capacity. Once NASA had their CRS program running, ATV wasn't really competitive so they struck a deal to include ESA in the Orion program instead.

True. Still, ATV demonstrated that you can have a large cargo ship dock at Russian segment, and do everything expected: refuel, resupply, boost the orbit, etc. while not being a hazard to navigation, in the immediate vicinity. All while using traditional Soviet-standard docking hardware.

If your goal is to replace Progress with something larger, ATV has shown the way and proved it's possible.
Now, the questions are:
1) should you replace Progress
2) can you afford to replace Progress

But it can be done, this is beyond doubt now.
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Ceterum autem censeo, Moscovia esse delendam
 
rfields5421
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Re: SpaceX - Tests, Launches, Developments - 2020

Tue Jun 02, 2020 3:07 pm

rfields5421 wrote:
A manned space station with a moderate - say 50 person capacity


READ what I wrote. I'm not talking about a beer can sized small facility. A real long term industrial production capability.
Not all who wander are lost.
 
GDB
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Re: SpaceX - Tests, Launches, Developments - 2020

Wed Jun 03, 2020 5:11 pm

Bigelow's plans as well as others, for private LEO stations, whether for industry or even tourism, might ensure a market for Dragon and the Starliner beyond annual launches each to the ISS.
However Russia is faced with losing revenue from both NASA and likely ESA too, they won't stop ferrying non Russians to the ISS, just a lot fewer. Noteworthy too that the next Dragon flight, planned for August, with 4 crew, includes one from the Japanese agency.

Being so tied with Soyuz to ISS, it's just hard to see how without a new vehicle, Russia can be player in any of the above developments. Unless they want to build their own smaller station? Expensive on your own.
No matter how iconic, tough, durable, reliable, VW Beetle/Jeep/C-47 whatever you prefer, of space Soyuz is, it needs replacing and if I were their agency I would be looking hard at what Falcon 9/Dragon has achieved.
(And also Falcon Heavy).
It is within their ability to come up with something similar, surely.
 
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Tugger
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Re: SpaceX - Tests, Launches, Developments - 2020

Wed Jun 03, 2020 6:18 pm

Well it appears we might know why SN4 went....
Image

Reuters reporter Joey Roulette was able to ask Musk about Starship SN4’s spectacular demise the day prior. The SpaceX CEO was quoted saying that “what we thought was going to be a minor test of a quick disconnect ended up being a big problem”, confirming suspicions based on careful analysis of public views of the explosion
[...]
If that’s the case, the likeliest explanation for SN4’s explosion is that that quick disconnect was unable to fully reconnect after the test, resulting in a leak from the liquid methane port when SpaceX began to detank the rocket. Instead of the highly-pressurized fluid flowing smoothly back to ground storage tanks, the liquid methane sprayed wildly,

Image
https://www.teslarati.com/spacex-starsh ... elon-musk/

And the good news is:
Starship SN5 appears to be just shy of ready to take SN4’s place on the launch mount, although SpaceX will have to build an entirely new launch mount before it can resume testing.

At the same time, Starship SN5’s successor – SN6 – is just one stacking event away from reaching a level of completion similar to SN4 and SN5.


So Nomadd, as an A.net dork, I gotta ask: do you know "bocachicagal" ? :crackup:

Tugg
I don’t know that I am unafraid to be myself, but it is hard to be somebody else. - W. Shatner
There are many kinds of sentences that we think state facts about the world but that are really just expressions of our attitudes. - F. Ramsey
 
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Phosphorus
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Re: SpaceX - Tests, Launches, Developments - 2020

Wed Jun 03, 2020 9:58 pm

GDB wrote:
Bigelow's plans as well as others, for private LEO stations, whether for industry or even tourism, might ensure a market for Dragon and the Starliner beyond annual launches each to the ISS.
However Russia is faced with losing revenue from both NASA and likely ESA too, they won't stop ferrying non Russians to the ISS, just a lot fewer. Noteworthy too that the next Dragon flight, planned for August, with 4 crew, includes one from the Japanese agency.

Being so tied with Soyuz to ISS, it's just hard to see how without a new vehicle, Russia can be player in any of the above developments. Unless they want to build their own smaller station? Expensive on your own.
No matter how iconic, tough, durable, reliable, VW Beetle/Jeep/C-47 whatever you prefer, of space Soyuz is, it needs replacing and if I were their agency I would be looking hard at what Falcon 9/Dragon has achieved.
(And also Falcon Heavy).
It is within their ability to come up with something similar, surely.

Please correct me if I'm wrong, but historically, Soyuz contracts and payments to Russia were for two related, but distinct services:
1) launching and landing crews
2) lifeboat capability

I understand Commercial Crew providers can hit it right off, with launching and landing crews. The question remains, if lifeboat capability
a) is inherent in CC capsules
b) if yes, how quickly is it certified

One of the great advantages of Soyuz is the track record of in-orbit lifetime. It can be substituted, but you either spend a lot of time to certify it, or take the risk.
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casinterest
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Re: SpaceX - Tests, Launches, Developments - 2020

Thu Jun 04, 2020 1:36 am

That has to be the first time I ever saw the 1st stage full landing without the video cutting out on Just Read the Instructions. ( They had to bring in the other drone ship since the crew one is on OCISLY).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y4xBFHjkUvw

Another successful launch. These are becoming a bit routine. Now will have to see if Starlink payload deploy goes well.
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
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Nomadd
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Re: SpaceX - Tests, Launches, Developments - 2020

Thu Jun 04, 2020 2:10 am

DarkKnight5 wrote:
I read somewhere, I think at ARS, maybe up thread I don’t know, that the thrust to weight ratio of F9 with Dragon is something like 1.2:1. That matches my eyes where the rocket just groans off the pad. I suppose that’s optimal for human flight as the impulse of going from 1G to 2G in an instant would be a hell of a kick in the back. Always makes me picker as an viewer just praying it doesn’t tip over.

More like 1.4:1 last I heard. Something like 1.7 million thrust to 1.2 million weight.

casinterest wrote:
That has to be the first time I ever saw the 1st stage full landing without the video cutting out on Just Read the Instructions. ( They had to bring in the other drone ship since the crew one is on OCISLY).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y4xBFHjkUvw
Another successful launch. These are becoming a bit routine. Now will have to see if Starlink payload deploy goes well.

I told Elon to ditch those Intellians on the barges and get Seatels. Maybe he listened.
Last edited by Nomadd on Thu Jun 04, 2020 2:13 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
DarkKnight5
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Re: SpaceX - Tests, Launches, Developments - 2020

Thu Jun 04, 2020 2:12 am

casinterest wrote:
That has to be the first time I ever saw the 1st stage full landing without the video cutting out on Just Read the Instructions. ( They had to bring in the other drone ship since the crew one is on OCISLY).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y4xBFHjkUvw

Another successful launch. These are becoming a bit routine. Now will have to see if Starlink payload deploy goes well.

The sunshade sats indeed deployed and we even got to see the moon in the background of the deploy shot. Very similar direction of launch as Demo 1, passing south of Ireland and then over Europe. Doesn’t mean anything in particular. Just kind of interesting.
 
FGITD
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Re: SpaceX - Tests, Launches, Developments - 2020

Thu Jun 04, 2020 4:30 am

casinterest wrote:
That has to be the first time I ever saw the 1st stage full landing without the video cutting out on Just Read the Instructions. ( They had to bring in the other drone ship since the crew one is on OCISLY).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y4xBFHjkUvw

Another successful launch. These are becoming a bit routine. Now will have to see if Starlink payload deploy goes well.


Great video, incredible to finally see it live.

I'd love to see a video if it from one of the support ships a distance away. Must be a bizarre experience to be on a ship, quiet night at sea, when suddenly a rocket lands
 
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Francoflier
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Re: SpaceX - Tests, Launches, Developments - 2020

Thu Jun 04, 2020 5:11 am

casinterest wrote:
Another successful launch. These are becoming a bit routine.


Except this one was significant in the sense that this was the first time SpaceX successfully completed a launch-to-land cycle for the 5th time with the same booster, after B1048's landing failure during Starlink-5.

Hopefully B1049 will go on to fly a 6th time (probably another Starlink mission) and push the reusability envelope towards the 10 launch cycles they were initially aiming for with block 5 boosters.
I'll do my own airline. With Blackjack. And hookers. In fact, forget the airline.
 
GDB
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Re: SpaceX - Tests, Launches, Developments - 2020

Thu Jun 04, 2020 12:19 pm

Francoflier wrote:
casinterest wrote:
Another successful launch. These are becoming a bit routine.


Except this one was significant in the sense that this was the first time SpaceX successfully completed a launch-to-land cycle for the 5th time with the same booster, after B1048's landing failure during Starlink-5.

Hopefully B1049 will go on to fly a 6th time (probably another Starlink mission) and push the reusability envelope towards the 10 launch cycles they were initially aiming for with block 5 boosters.


Incredible and yet now routine.
When you look back at other ideas for re-useable first stages, going way back to the Saturn era, from the biggest aerospace corporations, they were as we say rather 'Heath Robinson' ideas, or as called in the US, 'Rube Goldberg'.

Yet this rather odd, or eccentric software bro, comes along and does it. Not without mishaps and on the back of the NASA contracts true, even so, reflecting of the weekends manned launch, he beat Boeing. Think about that. Boeing have been in the rocket/space vehicle business from the start, especially if you count descendant companies such as Rockwell and MDD. And no one got more government pork along the way than Boeing.
 
rfields5421
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Re: SpaceX - Tests, Launches, Developments - 2020

Thu Jun 04, 2020 1:26 pm

When every rocket expert, every trained scientist, said it was impossible, he said what have we got to lose by trying except for a small bit of money. (Small in his case being a couple tens of millions of dollars.)

Amazing what can be accomplished when people try.
Not all who wander are lost.
 
Insertnamehere
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Re: SpaceX - Tests, Launches, Developments - 2020

Thu Jun 04, 2020 6:56 pm

Francoflier wrote:
casinterest wrote:
Another successful launch. These are becoming a bit routine.


Except this one was significant in the sense that this was the first time SpaceX successfully completed a launch-to-land cycle for the 5th time with the same booster, after B1048's landing failure during Starlink-5.

Hopefully B1049 will go on to fly a 6th time (probably another Starlink mission) and push the reusability envelope towards the 10 launch cycles they were initially aiming for with block 5 boosters.


Elon said after the last F9 landing failure that all life-leader boosters will fly only SpaceX missions. So it will be only flying Starlink missions until it fails.
 
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Tugger
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Re: SpaceX - Tests, Launches, Developments - 2020

Thu Jun 04, 2020 8:12 pm

GDB wrote:
Yet this rather odd, or eccentric software bro, comes along and does it. Not without mishaps and on the back of the NASA contracts true, even so, reflecting of the weekends manned launch, he beat Boeing. Think about that. Boeing have been in the rocket/space vehicle business from the start, especially if you count descendant companies such as Rockwell and MDD. And no one got more government pork along the way than Boeing.

(Bolding added for emphasis)
I think the key element SpaceX and Mr. Musk brought the the table (or brought back) was failure!

That a failure was essentially built into the process, into the task to be completed. Test it till is breaks. If it doesn't break, see where it does break. Fix what breaks. Move on.

For many decades failure was basically not allowed for "space" projects, and any rocket failure was seen as the worst defeat, especially if seen by the public! You absolutely could NOT have that. It needed to work and work perfectly or it wasn't good enough. Who cares about delaying the project another few months or even years, it just can't fail. Who cares if it costs impossible amounts of money to search for anything and everything that could fail, might fail, might be a problem, even the little item should be over engineered rather than possibly failing. Even for a one time use system. Test and retest, that is what is needed!

But now a new thing is being introduced, the idea to try something that might not work, might even blow up! And that idea that that can be more economical and faster, and a better path to success, that is kinda new again. I think that is what caught Boeing, but they missed how to do it and instead cut corners (no full, end to end, integrated test for example) thinking that was what the idea was. But it is not. Failing early and often is not cutting corners, it is know what you have now, where the corners actually are, then picking up the pieces and looking at the data and seeing where you were right and where you were off and what you need to address.

This may be the biggest most important thing SpaceX can do.

Tugg
I don’t know that I am unafraid to be myself, but it is hard to be somebody else. - W. Shatner
There are many kinds of sentences that we think state facts about the world but that are really just expressions of our attitudes. - F. Ramsey
 
ZaphodHarkonnen
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Re: SpaceX - Tests, Launches, Developments - 2020

Thu Jun 04, 2020 8:17 pm

rfields5421 wrote:
When every rocket expert, every trained scientist, said it was impossible, he said what have we got to lose by trying except for a small bit of money. (Small in his case being a couple tens of millions of dollars.)

Amazing what can be accomplished when people try.


I don't remember anyone saying it was impossible.Simply infeasible. And with the tech, budgets, and risk appetite of the day it was. But with a combination of new tech and an appetite for risk it became feasible.

Also note the Falcon 9 does the propulsive landing probably the hardest way possible. The hoverslam/suicide burn leaves effectively no room for error. If the burn goes for a second longer or shorter than planned or you can't throttle down to a point needed, the booster is toast. Compare that to something like New Shepherd which can throttle down to a point where the TWR is under 1. Meaning it can hover before lightly setting down. If anything that makes the work by the SpaceX team even more impressive.
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