Moderators: richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR
Francoflier wrote:Good news for the little booster that could:
B1049, the first booster to fly 6 times, is slated to launch the next Starlink mission in a few days, which would make it break its own record for flight cycles.
https://nextspaceflight.com/launches/details/2670
Upwards and onwards...
Tugger wrote:Francoflier wrote:Good news for the little booster that could:
B1049, the first booster to fly 6 times, is slated to launch the next Starlink mission in a few days, which would make it break its own record for flight cycles.
https://nextspaceflight.com/launches/details/2670
Upwards and onwards...
It is seriously crazy to now see launch prices of *just* $50M. Remember when $200 - $400 were normal with $1B+ for crewed launches?
And relanding boosters in now a normal thing, though only SpaceX is doing it we expect it.
Tugg
FGITD wrote:Tugger wrote:Francoflier wrote:Good news for the little booster that could:
B1049, the first booster to fly 6 times, is slated to launch the next Starlink mission in a few days, which would make it break its own record for flight cycles.
https://nextspaceflight.com/launches/details/2670
Upwards and onwards...
It is seriously crazy to now see launch prices of *just* $50M. Remember when $200 - $400 were normal with $1B+ for crewed launches?
And relanding boosters in now a normal thing, though only SpaceX is doing it we expect it.
Tugg
It’s a fascinating development, how quickly we’ve gotten used to boosters landing. Watching any of the other companies launch almost seems very old and outdated now.
I wonder how many more launches b1049 has left. Would be fascinating to keep sending it until it fails. Though that might be a hard sell to any company looking to launch. "We'll give you a great price....but the booster will probably explode"
texl1649 wrote:haven't seen if any of the other primes like Arianespace/Boeing etc. have plans to also shift to doing so, which, unless SpaceX runs into a lot of problems, I'd expect they would need to do.
FGITD wrote:Worth remembering too that when SpaceX first started running with the idea, they were viewed sort of like the ambitious newcomer with the big dreams, who would either die off or conform to the norms
I think not having any functional rockets and focusing exclusively on reusability was their key to success. Others already had successful boosters and customers, so why bother spending all this money on Something customers might not even want? It was a bit of Russian roulette from SpaceX given how close to failure they came, but it clearly worked.
ZaphodHarkonnen wrote:FGITD wrote:Worth remembering too that when SpaceX first started running with the idea, they were viewed sort of like the ambitious newcomer with the big dreams, who would either die off or conform to the norms
I think not having any functional rockets and focusing exclusively on reusability was their key to success. Others already had successful boosters and customers, so why bother spending all this money on Something customers might not even want? It was a bit of Russian roulette from SpaceX given how close to failure they came, but it clearly worked.
At first it was more that the boosters were going to be crashing anyways. So experimenting with softer landings was minimal extra cost. Especially if there was fuel left after getting the customer to orbit.
Then they just incremented.
Remember that Falcon Heavy was first designed when Falcon 9 had a much smaller payload. The main reason you don't see many Falcon Heavy launches now is in part because it was harder and more expensive than first expected (the old hands you deride a bit were very right on that) But more importantly the upgrades to Falcon 9 ate most of the benefit of Falcon Heavy.
Anyways, huge props to the SpaceX team for getting so far. To the point of convincing NASA that for the second commercial launch it is safe enough to reuse a booster AND a capsule. Note the original contracts for all these things required new hardware for each launch.
texl1649 wrote:ZaphodHarkonnen wrote:FGITD wrote:Worth remembering too that when SpaceX first started running with the idea, they were viewed sort of like the ambitious newcomer with the big dreams, who would either die off or conform to the norms
I think not having any functional rockets and focusing exclusively on reusability was their key to success. Others already had successful boosters and customers, so why bother spending all this money on Something customers might not even want? It was a bit of Russian roulette from SpaceX given how close to failure they came, but it clearly worked.
At first it was more that the boosters were going to be crashing anyways. So experimenting with softer landings was minimal extra cost. Especially if there was fuel left after getting the customer to orbit.
Then they just incremented.
Remember that Falcon Heavy was first designed when Falcon 9 had a much smaller payload. The main reason you don't see many Falcon Heavy launches now is in part because it was harder and more expensive than first expected (the old hands you deride a bit were very right on that) But more importantly the upgrades to Falcon 9 ate most of the benefit of Falcon Heavy.
Anyways, huge props to the SpaceX team for getting so far. To the point of convincing NASA that for the second commercial launch it is safe enough to reuse a booster AND a capsule. Note the original contracts for all these things required new hardware for each launch.
That’s all true but it’s also true that once something has been used once, it is mechanically in some ways safer to use it again. There’s a reason they call it a maiden/test flight. Now, that’s not to say capsule/re-entry survival means it is safer than a new build, but for a first stage it is somewhat logical (as it is with airliners etc.)
Tugger wrote:Does anyone know if any of the other established space launch companies have experimented in any way with trying to bring their booster back "under control"? I know it is not part of their regimen and things like grid fins and cold thrusters on top of the booster don't exist for them, but it just seems like they should do something to begin the learning process of what is required.
Tugg
Nomadd wrote:Tugger wrote:Does anyone know if any of the other established space launch companies have experimented in any way with trying to bring their booster back "under control"? I know it is not part of their regimen and things like grid fins and cold thrusters on top of the booster don't exist for them, but it just seems like they should do something to begin the learning process of what is required.
Tugg
There's one elephant of a reason the F9 method of landing isn't practical for other boosters. Other boosters can't shut down 89% of their engines, except for RocketLab. Trying to land a stage with a 7 to 1 thrust to weight ratio would be interesting.
ZaphodHarkonnen wrote:At first it was more that the boosters were going to be crashing anyways. So experimenting with softer landings was minimal extra cost. Especially if there was fuel left after getting the customer to orbit.
Then they just incremented.
Nomadd wrote:Tugger wrote:Does anyone know if any of the other established space launch companies have experimented in any way with trying to bring their booster back "under control"? I know it is not part of their regimen and things like grid fins and cold thrusters on top of the booster don't exist for them, but it just seems like they should do something to begin the learning process of what is required.
Tugg
There's one elephant of a reason the F9 method of landing isn't practical for other boosters. Other boosters can't shut down 89% of their engines, except for RocketLab. Trying to land a stage with a 7 to 1 thrust to weight ratio would be interesting.
ZaphodHarkonnen wrote:FGITD wrote:Remember that Falcon Heavy was first designed when Falcon 9 had a much smaller payload. The main reason you don't see many Falcon Heavy launches now is in part because it was harder and more expensive than first expected (the old hands you deride a bit were very right on that) But more importantly the upgrades to Falcon 9 ate most of the benefit of Falcon Heavy.
Tugger wrote:texl1649 wrote:ZaphodHarkonnen wrote:
At first it was more that the boosters were going to be crashing anyways. So experimenting with softer landings was minimal extra cost. Especially if there was fuel left after getting the customer to orbit.
Then they just incremented.
Remember that Falcon Heavy was first designed when Falcon 9 had a much smaller payload. The main reason you don't see many Falcon Heavy launches now is in part because it was harder and more expensive than first expected (the old hands you deride a bit were very right on that) But more importantly the upgrades to Falcon 9 ate most of the benefit of Falcon Heavy.
Anyways, huge props to the SpaceX team for getting so far. To the point of convincing NASA that for the second commercial launch it is safe enough to reuse a booster AND a capsule. Note the original contracts for all these things required new hardware for each launch.
That’s all true but it’s also true that once something has been used once, it is mechanically in some ways safer to use it again. There’s a reason they call it a maiden/test flight. Now, that’s not to say capsule/re-entry survival means it is safer than a new build, but for a first stage it is somewhat logical (as it is with airliners etc.)
Does anyone know if any of the other established space launch companies have experimented in any way with trying to bring their booster back "under control"? I know it is not part of their regimen and things like grid fins and cold thrusters on top of the booster don't exist for them, but it just seems like they should do something to begin the learning process of what is required.
Tugg
flyingturtle wrote:I understand the improvements in the F9 rokkit nibbled away the FH business case.
But why don't the same improvements translate into a much more capable FH? Would it run into an issue with Max Q? Or would it need a bigger payload fairing to lift bigger (but not necessarily heavier) payloads? Or are there simply no customers who want to lift their complete holiday mansions into a geostationary orbit??
texl1649 wrote:I vaguely recall the French working with the Russians to do something with the Arianne 5 to make it re-usable. The Adeline (again arianespace) might be flying by 2025.
Nomadd wrote:
texl1649 wrote:The FH is plenty capable
flyingturtle wrote:Just a few hours ago - the first successful static fire ofSnateSN8.
The first time around, the rokkit blew off a piece of martyte - the ceramic-filled epoxy resin that protects the launchpad (as well as the landing pads). That piece tore through a Raptor engine.
zanl188 wrote:Also last night we had another Starlink launch. Falcon 9 used for the launch made a record 7th landing!
Francoflier wrote:zanl188 wrote:Also last night we had another Starlink launch. Falcon 9 used for the launch made a record 7th landing!
I'd be super curious to know how many cycles they are getting out of the engines.
Re-flying the boosters is one thing, but if they frequently change the engines on those between flights, it vastly diminishes the case for reusability.
GDB wrote:Though it may be thought to be comparing apples with oranges, however both are liquid fuelled rockets designed for re-use, how does inspection of a Falcon 9 booster after each flight compare with the SSME's?
GDB wrote:Though it may be thought to be comparing apples with oranges, however both are liquid fuelled rockets designed for re-use, how does inspection of a Falcon 9 booster after each flight compare with the SSME's?
texl1649 wrote:GDB wrote:Though it may be thought to be comparing apples with oranges, however both are liquid fuelled rockets designed for re-use, how does inspection of a Falcon 9 booster after each flight compare with the SSME's?
SSME’s cost a fortune to refurbish. It’s an order of magnitude/logarithmic comparison. The RS 25’s are great/marvels of science, but are they worth $145 million a piece (new)? Is there any chance they can be re-used enough times economically to offset this...ludicrous price?
https://spacenews.com/aerojet-rocketdyn ... act-costs/
Nomadd wrote:texl1649 wrote:GDB wrote:Though it may be thought to be comparing apples with oranges, however both are liquid fuelled rockets designed for re-use, how does inspection of a Falcon 9 booster after each flight compare with the SSME's?
SSME’s cost a fortune to refurbish. It’s an order of magnitude/logarithmic comparison. The RS 25’s are great/marvels of science, but are they worth $145 million a piece (new)? Is there any chance they can be re-used enough times economically to offset this...ludicrous price?
https://spacenews.com/aerojet-rocketdyn ... act-costs/
They can't be reused at all. SLS is completely expendable. But they do have the price down to $100 million each.
Raptors are about the same thrust, half the weight and cost under a million each. And the price is going down.
texl1649 wrote:Nomadd wrote:texl1649 wrote:SSME’s cost a fortune to refurbish. It’s an order of magnitude/logarithmic comparison. The RS 25’s are great/marvels of science, but are they worth $145 million a piece (new)? Is there any chance they can be re-used enough times economically to offset this...ludicrous price?
https://spacenews.com/aerojet-rocketdyn ... act-costs/
They can't be reused at all. SLS is completely expendable. But they do have the price down to $100 million each.
Raptors are about the same thrust, half the weight and cost under a million each. And the price is going down.
Correct on SLS, but in the shuttle program they were re-used.
“After each flight the engines would be removed from the orbiter and transferred to the Space Shuttle Main Engine Processing Facility (SSMEPF), where they would be inspected and refurbished in preparation for reuse on a subsequent flight. A total of 46 reusable RS-25 engines, each costing around US$40 million, were flown during the Space Shuttle program...” (from Wikipedia as it came up first)
Please note: SLS is a ridiculous waste, and I’d hope that though the moon program is critical, a different launch vehicle could be used.
GDB wrote:texl1649 wrote:Nomadd wrote:They can't be reused at all. SLS is completely expendable. But they do have the price down to $100 million each.
Raptors are about the same thrust, half the weight and cost under a million each. And the price is going down.
Correct on SLS, but in the shuttle program they were re-used.
“After each flight the engines would be removed from the orbiter and transferred to the Space Shuttle Main Engine Processing Facility (SSMEPF), where they would be inspected and refurbished in preparation for reuse on a subsequent flight. A total of 46 reusable RS-25 engines, each costing around US$40 million, were flown during the Space Shuttle program...” (from Wikipedia as it came up first)
Please note: SLS is a ridiculous waste, and I’d hope that though the moon program is critical, a different launch vehicle could be used.
I know it's not the 'done' thing to say anything positive about SLS, political machinations around it don't help either.
However, if not used if for the last time on an SLS launch, what use would these engines being aside from a lot of museum exhibits?
But! However totally game changing the Starship in it's various forms could be, surely even the most ardent of Musk/Space X fans should understand that it is a long way off? That's not a dig at 'Musk Time' either, Space X, even freed from the amount of political interference NASA suffers, still has a lot to do and prove with this machine/launch system they plan to build.
How it is designed to re-enter, not just Mars but Earth's Atmosphere too, just one of many major hurdles.
Fact is, for all the delays and Boeing being, well the Boeing of recent years, SLS is much more likely to get Astronauts to and be a vital element, with other launchers, mostly commercial too, the Moon before Starship, that includes the non return Lunar version, which could be essentially a self delivering base/supply hub to the surface.
I wish it all the best, Space X have a good grounding, their returning US Astronauts to the ISS should shame Boeing, if the whole system of Starship is built and works, it will be totally transformative.
Not that I think we should expect it to reach Mars, unmanned or not, to coin a phrase, 'before this decade is out'.
But I would like to proved wrong.
texl1649 wrote:So, today is the 15Km hop day. Let’s see if this belly flop leads to a dramatic explosion or not. Clearance is in the window now I think.
It’s completely fair to say SpaceX (like Tesla) has benefited from government funding etc. It’s also fair to point out SLS is not...particularly an affordable launch system, imho. Summary of that Tim piece;
https://everydayastronaut.com/sls-vs-starship/
texl1649 wrote:So, today is the 15Km hop day. Let’s see if this belly flop leads to a dramatic explosion or not.
GDB wrote:texl1649 wrote:So, today is the 15Km hop day. Let’s see if this belly flop leads to a dramatic explosion or not. Clearance is in the window now I think.
It’s completely fair to say SpaceX (like Tesla) has benefited from government funding etc. It’s also fair to point out SLS is not...particularly an affordable launch system, imho. Summary of that Tim piece;
https://everydayastronaut.com/sls-vs-starship/
He's right but neither was Apollo, then we find into the Shuttle era that each STS launch is coming out at a similar price per Apollo launch.
So much for THAT 'reuseability'.
China seems to have been successful in collecting Lunar samples and has lifted off. First from anyone since 1976.
Back in the 60's the Surveyor landers tested the descent method to be used on Apollo, the same seems to be happening today.
Whatever the great disparity between China and the US in experience and still in many areas technology, if one side has the will to do something while the other sits on it's laurels, well the start of spaceflight in the late 50's/early 60's should serve as a warning.
texl1649 wrote:GDB wrote:texl1649 wrote:So, today is the 15Km hop day. Let’s see if this belly flop leads to a dramatic explosion or not. Clearance is in the window now I think.
It’s completely fair to say SpaceX (like Tesla) has benefited from government funding etc. It’s also fair to point out SLS is not...particularly an affordable launch system, imho. Summary of that Tim piece;
https://everydayastronaut.com/sls-vs-starship/
He's right but neither was Apollo, then we find into the Shuttle era that each STS launch is coming out at a similar price per Apollo launch.
So much for THAT 'reuseability'.
China seems to have been successful in collecting Lunar samples and has lifted off. First from anyone since 1976.
Back in the 60's the Surveyor landers tested the descent method to be used on Apollo, the same seems to be happening today.
Whatever the great disparity between China and the US in experience and still in many areas technology, if one side has the will to do something while the other sits on it's laurels, well the start of spaceflight in the late 50's/early 60's should serve as a warning.
It's ironic, and something I just learned this year, that much of the shuttle design decisions were dictated by one specific military mission (which of course it never flew). Another fact I learned from Scott Manley:
https://youtu.be/_q2i0eu35aY
I do think the Chinese are doing well with their program. Hopefully, someone competent takes the reigns at Nasa from Bridenstine (who has been pretty great), and perhaps some good old fashioned sense of rivalry/pride will also assist keeping the current moon program on track (and funded...) I think the leadership team does matter in this case.
flyingturtle wrote:Well, it has been postponed again, and the TFR has been cancelled.
Nomadd wrote:I'm not that familiar with how TFRs are issued
Nomadd wrote:We'll always wonder what NASA could have done if not hamstrung by the Alabama/Utah mafia.
flyingturtle wrote:It's my adage that you cannot make the right decisions if you're afraid of being unpopular. Richard Feynman, the physicist who helped investigate the Challenger disaster said he'd rather wanted to study business management after seeing the problems at NASA. How do you direct the efforts of 40'000 employees? How do you focus on the right projects? How do you minimize risks?
GDB wrote:One Cold War positive, the Soviets, despite their Marxist-Leninist doctrines, knew that the numbers on STS did not add up, it's justification now seemed dubious, hence their already paranoid nature made the leap in thinking STS was basically a cover for not only for military satellite support, maybe to grab their ones, or be a fast reacting way from Vandenberg to drop a nasty over Moscow within minutes.
Hence them pissing away billions on their own version, which they really could not afford.
But that is all history, both Space X and Bridenstine have done a lot to popularize space, more popular support means influence and that famous line from The Right Stuff 'No bucks, no Buck Rogers'.