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maint123
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2 Syrian su24s shot down by Turkey's f16s

Sun Mar 01, 2020 1:31 pm

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bloomb ... ith-greece

"Two Syrian Fighter Jets Shot Down by Turkey
THE ASSOCIATED PRESS (COSTAS KANTOURIS and ANDREW WILKS)
March 1, 2020, 2:27 AM EST
Updated on March 1, 2020, 7:54 AM EST
Kastanies, Greece (AP) -- Syria’s official news agency said two of its warplane were shot down by Turkish forces inside northwest Syria, amid a military escalation there that's led to growing direct clashes between Turkish and Syrian forces.

SANA says the jets were targeted over the Idlib region, and that the four pilots ejected with parachutes and landed safely."

Western jets seem to come up on top in every conflict since the gulf war. Though the su24 is a dated jet as compared to the new gen f16s. I believe a Russian piloted su24 was also shot down a few years back by turkey.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: 2 Syrian su24s shot down by Turkey's f16s

Sun Mar 01, 2020 2:00 pm

Another escalation indeed. But as expected when Russian/Syrian jets attacked Turkish positions in Idlib.
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mxaxai
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Re: 2 Syrian su24s shot down by Turkey's f16s

Sun Mar 01, 2020 2:58 pm

maint123 wrote:
Western jets seem to come up on top in every conflict since the gulf war. Though the su24 is a dated jet as compared to the new gen f16s. I believe a Russian piloted su24 was also shot down a few years back by turkey.

The Su-24 is "only" about 5 years older than the F-16, although much more comparable to the Tornado and F-111 in technology and mission. Obviously, the break-up of the Soviet Union and the relative lack of economic power of Su-24 users has led to it falling behind compared to western aircraft.

Wonder where the Syrian S-200 / 300 missile systems were, though. Protecting higher-value targets, I suppose.
 
tu204
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Re: 2 Syrian su24s shot down by Turkey's f16s

Sun Mar 01, 2020 5:46 pm

Dutchy wrote:
Another escalation indeed. But as expected when Russian/Syrian jets attacked Turkish positions in Idlib.


Escalation yes, but what we have is Turkish aircraft intruding into Syria to attack Syrian aircraft, not a Syrian aircraft shot down after trespassing Turkish airspace. So I fully expect the next step to be Turkish F-16's getting shot down, rather than their UAV's.

Same goes for Israeli regular incursions into Syrian airspace and whining about getting shot down.
I do not dream about movie stars, they must dream about me for I am real and they are not. - Alexander Popov
 
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Dutchy
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Re: 2 Syrian su24s shot down by Turkey's f16s

Sun Mar 01, 2020 7:08 pm

tu204 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
Another escalation indeed. But as expected when Russian/Syrian jets attacked Turkish positions in Idlib.


Escalation yes, but what we have is Turkish aircraft intruding into Syria to attack Syrian aircraft, not a Syrian aircraft shot down after trespassing Turkish airspace. So I fully expect the next step to be Turkish F-16's getting shot down, rather than their UAV's.

Same goes for Israeli regular incursions into Syrian airspace and whining about getting shot down.


So what is next, after that? Sooting down Russian planes? Full invasion by Turkish forces?
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Re: 2 Syrian su24s shot down by Turkey's f16s

Sun Mar 01, 2020 7:34 pm

Dutchy wrote:
tu204 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
Another escalation indeed. But as expected when Russian/Syrian jets attacked Turkish positions in Idlib.


Escalation yes, but what we have is Turkish aircraft intruding into Syria to attack Syrian aircraft, not a Syrian aircraft shot down after trespassing Turkish airspace. So I fully expect the next step to be Turkish F-16's getting shot down, rather than their UAV's.

Same goes for Israeli regular incursions into Syrian airspace and whining about getting shot down.


So what is next, after that? Sooting down Russian planes? Full invasion by Turkish forces?


Hell knows. Situation is snowballing pretty past though...hope that meeting Erdogan wants to have with Putin this week will bring about something.

Erdogan put himself in a corner as it stands. If he backs down, he will lose support at home and if he doesn't, well there's not much chance he can win this fight.
I do not dream about movie stars, they must dream about me for I am real and they are not. - Alexander Popov
 
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Re: 2 Syrian su24s shot down by Turkey's f16s

Sun Mar 01, 2020 7:45 pm

mxaxai wrote:
maint123 wrote:
Western jets seem to come up on top in every conflict since the gulf war. Though the su24 is a dated jet as compared to the new gen f16s. I believe a Russian piloted su24 was also shot down a few years back by turkey.


Wonder where the Syrian S-200 / 300 missile systems were, though. Protecting higher-value targets, I suppose.


The Su-24 is not going to take out an F-16, unless the Viper pilot makes a very big mistake. The Syrian Arab Air Force cannot compete with the Turkish Air Force. Turkey has better planes, better maintenance, and better and more training than Syria's airplanes. Even the Turkish F-4s present a good threat to the SAAF.

I'm sure the S-200 and S-300 SAM systems were moved to protect Russian Bases and assets.

Yes, a Russian Su-24M2 was shot down by a Turkish F-16 INSIDE Turkey back in 2015. Both crew ejected, the pilot was killed but the navigator was rescued by Russian Forces, after they were allowed to fly into Turkey for the rescue.
 
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Re: 2 Syrian su24s shot down by Turkey's f16s

Sun Mar 01, 2020 7:58 pm

tu204 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
Another escalation indeed. But as expected when Russian/Syrian jets attacked Turkish positions in Idlib.


Escalation yes, but what we have is Turkish aircraft intruding into Syria to attack Syrian aircraft, not a Syrian aircraft shot down after trespassing Turkish airspace. So I fully expect the next step to be Turkish F-16's getting shot down, rather than their UAV's.

Same goes for Israeli regular incursions into Syrian airspace and whining about getting shot down.


When you drop bombs on a countries troops in a neck of the woods that is a tinder box, you can expect to get your head handed back to you shortly in one manner or another.
"History does not long entrust the care of freedom to the weak or timid." D. Eisenhower
 
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Re: 2 Syrian su24s shot down by Turkey's f16s

Sun Mar 01, 2020 8:02 pm

tu204 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
tu204 wrote:

Escalation yes, but what we have is Turkish aircraft intruding into Syria to attack Syrian aircraft, not a Syrian aircraft shot down after trespassing Turkish airspace. So I fully expect the next step to be Turkish F-16's getting shot down, rather than their UAV's.

Same goes for Israeli regular incursions into Syrian airspace and whining about getting shot down.


So what is next, after that? Sooting down Russian planes? Full invasion by Turkish forces?


Hell knows. Situation is snowballing pretty past though...hope that meeting Erdogan wants to have with Putin this week will bring about something.

Erdogan put himself in a corner as it stands. If he backs down, he will lose support at home and if he doesn't, well there's not much chance he can win this fight.


You can argue one way or another but Erdogan stands every chance of mopping the floor with the opposition. Did you miss the fact that the US sided with Turkey and told anyone that wants to play, "We are your Huckleberry"? Pretty sure the Syrians remember when the USN had enough of the games a few years back and smoked one of their jets that was feeling its oats.
"History does not long entrust the care of freedom to the weak or timid." D. Eisenhower
 
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Re: 2 Syrian su24s shot down by Turkey's f16s

Sun Mar 01, 2020 8:27 pm

tu204 wrote:
Erdogan put himself in a corner as it stands. If he backs down, he will lose support at home


The same goes for Putin. If he backs down, he will lose support at home.
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Re: 2 Syrian su24s shot down by Turkey's f16s

Sun Mar 01, 2020 11:16 pm

Turkey having aprox 300 F-16 and one of Europe strongest army, having him in a corner could get really uggly, both Erdogan and Putin diktators with humungus egos and pride.
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maint123
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Re: 2 Syrian su24s shot down by Turkey's f16s

Sun Mar 01, 2020 11:59 pm

Middle east was always a mess but now its entering new levels of instability. Turkey I feel is getting assistance in this conflict from usa to put Russia in its place in Syria.
And Russians probably know this.
Russians have a choice now , either quitely take the beating or use the Syrians as a front to test its weapons against a NATO supplied country.
If they are smart they will test some of their weapons, using Syria as the front. Good to know the capabilities of your weapons, rather than live in a fool's paradise.
Pity the Syrians, they had quite a modern country some years back.
 
tu204
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Re: 2 Syrian su24s shot down by Turkey's f16s

Mon Mar 02, 2020 4:29 am

mxaxai wrote:
maint123 wrote:
Western jets seem to come up on top in every conflict since the gulf war. Though the su24 is a dated jet as compared to the new gen f16s. I believe a Russian piloted su24 was also shot down a few years back by turkey.

The Su-24 is "only" about 5 years older than the F-16, although much more comparable to the Tornado and F-111 in technology and mission. Obviously, the break-up of the Soviet Union and the relative lack of economic power of Su-24 users has led to it falling behind compared to western aircraft.

Wonder where the Syrian S-200 / 300 missile systems were, though. Protecting higher-value targets, I suppose.


A Su-24 is a third generation ground attack aircraft/bomber with minimal air to air capability. I wouldn't be surprised if you took it out with a MiG-21 straight out of the Vietnam era.

An F-16 is a fourth generation air superiority aircraft (with air to ground capabilities added on).

Not exactly a fair comparison in aerial combat.

After the incident with Turkey back in 2016, Su-24 sorties get air cover from Su-35's in Syria.
The Su-34 has decent air to air capabilities but when flying sorties in Syria still normally has cover from fighters.
I do not dream about movie stars, they must dream about me for I am real and they are not. - Alexander Popov
 
tu204
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Re: 2 Syrian su24s shot down by Turkey's f16s

Mon Mar 02, 2020 5:17 am

Dutchy wrote:
tu204 wrote:
Erdogan put himself in a corner as it stands. If he backs down, he will lose support at home


The same goes for Putin. If he backs down, he will lose support at home.


Believe it or not, I don't think so. Both the official government line and the opinion of the people isn't calling for Turkish blood or for our guys to clobber Turkey here. A diplomatic solution is what is hoped for right now. Yeah there is the occasional lunatics, mainly bloggers, that are trolling the Turks and "calling" for a fight. From what official Turkish officials are saying, they are trying to avoid a direct confrontation with Russia as well.

But that is because there haven't been direct Russian casualties here. If the Turks take out a Russian jet or bomb a convoy, that will probably change...
I do not dream about movie stars, they must dream about me for I am real and they are not. - Alexander Popov
 
tu204
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Re: 2 Syrian su24s shot down by Turkey's f16s

Mon Mar 02, 2020 5:59 am

maint123 wrote:
Middle east was always a mess but now its entering new levels of instability. Turkey I feel is getting assistance in this conflict from usa to put Russia in its place in Syria.
And Russians probably know this.
Russians have a choice now , either quitely take the beating or use the Syrians as a front to test its weapons against a NATO supplied country.
If they are smart they will test some of their weapons, using Syria as the front. Good to know the capabilities of your weapons, rather than live in a fool's paradise.
Pity the Syrians, they had quite a modern country some years back.


The Syrian war has been a testing ground for new Russian hardware from the start, so nothing new here.

Totally disagree with taking a beating. Turkey, unlike Russia actually has been making a strong effort to avoid killing any troops from the other side. So they clearly don't want a conflict. Lots of business interests between Russia and Turkey. Plus Turkey managed to piss off just about everyone to the point where even Rusophobic NATO members aren't giving any support to Turkey in this conflict. Obviously Turkey has a huge military advantage would there be an open and localised conflict in Syria (they have a border with, while Russia has a limited contingent in Syria), but the collateral effects would be pretty bad for Turkey, Turkish business interests in Russia and the couple hundred thousand Turkish citizens living and working in Russia. As we all know that it is something of a tradition for Russia to stop handing out visas (or cancel visa-free travel), change the migration quota to "0" for said citizens or just start deporting them back home when there is a conflict with anyone.
I do not dream about movie stars, they must dream about me for I am real and they are not. - Alexander Popov
 
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Dutchy
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Re: 2 Syrian su24s shot down by Turkey's f16s

Mon Mar 02, 2020 8:57 am

tu204 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
tu204 wrote:
Erdogan put himself in a corner as it stands. If he backs down, he will lose support at home


The same goes for Putin. If he backs down, he will lose support at home.


Believe it or not, I don't think so. Both the official government line and the opinion of the people isn't calling for Turkish blood or for our guys to clobber Turkey here. A diplomatic solution is what is hoped for right now. Yeah there is the occasional lunatics, mainly bloggers, that are trolling the Turks and "calling" for a fight. From what official Turkish officials are saying, they are trying to avoid a direct confrontation with Russia as well.

But that is because there haven't been direct Russian casualties here. If the Turks take out a Russian jet or bomb a convoy, that will probably change...


If Turkey invades to secure a piece of land for all the 3,4million refugees plus the 1million more that the Russians and Assad regime are threatening, what will Putin do? If the Turks don't stop there, but go all in to get rid of the Assad-regime, what will Putin do? Is he going to lose face by removing himself from Syria?

Russians already lost aviators to Turkish forces, but now there are just more Turks who have been killed by the Assad- or Putin-regime.

But this is becoming to political, so let's just stay with the Sukoi's being shot down by the Turks.
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mxaxai
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Re: 2 Syrian su24s shot down by Turkey's f16s

Mon Mar 02, 2020 9:15 am

tu204 wrote:
Totally disagree with taking a beating. Turkey, unlike Russia actually has been making a strong effort to avoid killing any troops from the other side. So they clearly don't want a conflict.

Turkey claims to have 'neutralised' some 2200 Syrian government soldiers, 103 tanks and 8 helicopters; against Turkish losses of ~100 troops in Idlib and ~300 in Syria overall. That doesn't support the 'avoid killing enemy troops' IMHO. At best, they're trying to avoid an all-out war.
 
maint123
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Re: 2 Syrian su24s shot down by Turkey's f16s

Mon Mar 02, 2020 9:24 am

tu204 wrote:
maint123 wrote:
Middle east was always a mess but now its entering new levels of instability. Turkey I feel is getting assistance in this conflict from usa to put Russia in its place in Syria.
And Russians probably know this.
Russians have a choice now , either quitely take the beating or use the Syrians as a front to test its weapons against a NATO supplied country.
If they are smart they will test some of their weapons, using Syria as the front. Good to know the capabilities of your weapons, rather than live in a fool's paradise.
Pity the Syrians, they had quite a modern country some years back.


The Syrian war has been a testing ground for new Russian hardware from the start, so nothing new here.

Totally disagree with taking a beating. Turkey, unlike Russia actually has been making a strong effort to avoid killing any troops from the other side. So they clearly don't want a conflict. Lots of business interests between Russia and Turkey. Plus Turkey managed to piss off just about everyone to the point where even Rusophobic NATO members aren't giving any support to Turkey in this conflict. Obviously Turkey has a huge military advantage would there be an open and localised conflict in Syria (they have a border with, while Russia has a limited contingent in Syria), but the collateral effects would be pretty bad for Turkey, Turkish business interests in Russia and the couple hundred thousand Turkish citizens living and working in Russia. As we all know that it is something of a tradition for Russia to stop handing out visas (or cancel visa-free travel), change the migration quota to "0" for said citizens or just start deporting them back home when there is a conflict with anyone.

I am speaking from a purely technical aspect Best to know your weakness when your own country is not threatened. Us internet commentators can afford to be complacent but countries in serious disputes have to be prepared, and under no illusions. Russian weapons have been coming up 2nd best or even 3rd best , as compared to American and European weapons.
 
tu204
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Re: 2 Syrian su24s shot down by Turkey's f16s

Mon Mar 02, 2020 2:31 pm

mxaxai wrote:
tu204 wrote:
Totally disagree with taking a beating. Turkey, unlike Russia actually has been making a strong effort to avoid killing any troops from the other side. So they clearly don't want a conflict.

Turkey claims to have 'neutralised' some 2200 Syrian government soldiers, 103 tanks and 8 helicopters; against Turkish losses of ~100 troops in Idlib and ~300 in Syria overall. That doesn't support the 'avoid killing enemy troops' IMHO. At best, they're trying to avoid an all-out war.


I was referring to Turkish avoiding Russian casualties.
I do not dream about movie stars, they must dream about me for I am real and they are not. - Alexander Popov
 
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keesje
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Re: 2 Syrian su24s shot down by Turkey's f16s

Mon Mar 02, 2020 3:01 pm

Small detail: the Su-24 is an old bomber (1975?), not a fighter, interception a few Su-30s might have been more interesting.
I guess the Turkish F16s where defending Syrian airspace.. W'll come up a twist to make people understand the real truth.
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GalaxyFlyer
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Re: 2 Syrian su24s shot down by Turkey's f16s

Mon Mar 02, 2020 3:54 pm

The next iteration of a 350-year old conflict.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_o ... rkish_wars
 
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Dutchy
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Re: 2 Syrian su24s shot down by Turkey's f16s

Mon Mar 02, 2020 4:13 pm

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
The next iteration of a 350-year old conflict.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_o ... rkish_wars


Well, not just that. Turkish national pride finds its root in the Ottoman Empire, which was killed 100 odd years ago. Current Syria was very much part of it, so the Turks feel they are still regional masters over there: regional power. Ironically the same as Russians feel about their neighbors. Perhaps the Turks should reclaim Creamia for good measure.

National pride is a dangerous beast, which is hard to contain if it is being used as a measure by some rogue political leader/dictator.
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Re: 2 Syrian su24s shot down by Turkey's f16s

Mon Mar 02, 2020 4:59 pm

keesje wrote:
Small detail: the Su-24 is an old bomber (1975?), not a fighter, interception a few Su-30s might have been more interesting.
I guess the Turkish F16s where defending Syrian airspace.. W'll come up a twist to make people understand the real truth.


How many planes does the Syrian Airforce have left? I mean if Turkey wants to stabilize the front line, it will need to control the air over the opposition territory. Without the support of the Syrian Airforce, the current offensive will not hold. Turkey will have the advantage of the 737 AEW&C to monitor the airspace over the contested territory . Do they have sufficient forces to establish air superiority over the area if they want to?

Syria is already partitioned east west along the Euphrates. I suppose the Turkish goal right not is not necessary to dominate the local politics but to set up a third partition to prevent the further refugee crisis. That is a goal that the west can live with and support and may even provide arms to maintain (a tri-partition Syria).

bt
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tu204
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Re: 2 Syrian su24s shot down by Turkey's f16s

Mon Mar 02, 2020 7:09 pm

bikerthai wrote:
keesje wrote:
Small detail: the Su-24 is an old bomber (1975?), not a fighter, interception a few Su-30s might have been more interesting.
I guess the Turkish F16s where defending Syrian airspace.. W'll come up a twist to make people understand the real truth.


How many planes does the Syrian Airforce have left? I mean if Turkey wants to stabilize the front line, it will need to control the air over the opposition territory. Without the support of the Syrian Airforce, the current offensive will not hold. Turkey will have the advantage of the 737 AEW&C to monitor the airspace over the contested territory . Do they have sufficient forces to establish air superiority over the area if they want to?

Syria is already partitioned east west along the Euphrates. I suppose the Turkish goal right not is not necessary to dominate the local politics but to set up a third partition to prevent the further refugee crisis. That is a goal that the west can live with and support and may even provide arms to maintain (a tri-partition Syria).

bt


All needed to stop Turkish aerial superiority, assuming Russia takes no active role, is for Syria move some air defences closer to the combat zone.

The stuff they have is not so obsolete (plus they can manage to "stumble" on some new goodies "abandoned" by Russian forces), aircraft cost way more than anti aircraft systems and make better headlines (aircraft shot down vs. anti-aircraft system destroyed).
I do not dream about movie stars, they must dream about me for I am real and they are not. - Alexander Popov
 
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Re: 2 Syrian su24s shot down by Turkey's f16s

Mon Mar 02, 2020 7:44 pm

Turkey does not need air superiority over all of Syria. They just need to control the air space behind the front line in order to prevent Syrian Air Force from bombing the rebel.

How close would the Syrian air defense be to the front line to clear the Turks from over the Rebel's air space without risk to Turkish artillery attack? Also air CAP would also be less succeptable to SAM than close air support.

bt
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DigitalSea
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Re: 2 Syrian su24s shot down by Turkey's f16s

Mon Mar 02, 2020 8:44 pm

bikerthai wrote:
Turkey does not need air superiority over all of Syria. They just need to control the air space behind the front line in order to prevent Syrian Air Force from bombing the rebel.

How close would the Syrian air defense be to the front line to clear the Turks from over the Rebel's air space without risk to Turkish artillery attack? Also air CAP would also be less succeptable to SAM than close air support.

bt


I wonder if they don't want to use their air defenses because then they would become a target for airstrikes, thus losing them entirely?
 
mxaxai
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Re: 2 Syrian su24s shot down by Turkey's f16s

Mon Mar 02, 2020 8:49 pm

bikerthai wrote:
How many planes does the Syrian Airforce have left?
bt

Planes overall actually plenty. The SyAAF has a large fleet of MiG-21 and MiG-23 (some 300 aircraft delivered, ~ 150 still in use), although their condition is of course unknown. The fleets seem to be used extensively, having lost 15 and 18 during the war, respectively. Not that those would be too much of a problem for any modern air force to deal with.

In terms of modern aircraft though, that's really only a few MiG-29.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: 2 Syrian su24s shot down by Turkey's f16s

Mon Mar 02, 2020 10:11 pm

mxaxai wrote:
bikerthai wrote:
How many planes does the Syrian Airforce have left?
bt

Planes overall actually plenty. The SyAAF has a large fleet of MiG-21 and MiG-23 (some 300 aircraft delivered, ~ 150 still in use), although their condition is of course unknown. The fleets seem to be used extensively, having lost 15 and 18 during the war, respectively. Not that those would be too much of a problem for any modern air force to deal with.

In terms of modern aircraft though, that's really only a few MiG-29.


Quite a sizeable fleet, but indeed many obsolete aircraft, no much of a competition for an F-16.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Syrian_Ai ... _Civil_War

Only the MiG-29SMT's seem to be kind of modern. WIki says 20 and 12 on order. But what is the status of these?
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bikerthai
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Re: 2 Syrian su24s shot down by Turkey's f16s

Mon Mar 02, 2020 10:11 pm

Those old planes and the helicopters are what doing the damage. If you can keep those plane out of the air space, even if it's just through fear and intimidation, then the objective is achieved.

bt
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ThePointblank
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Re: 2 Syrian su24s shot down by Turkey's f16s

Tue Mar 03, 2020 3:09 am

bikerthai wrote:
Turkey does not need air superiority over all of Syria. They just need to control the air space behind the front line in order to prevent Syrian Air Force from bombing the rebel.

How close would the Syrian air defense be to the front line to clear the Turks from over the Rebel's air space without risk to Turkish artillery attack? Also air CAP would also be less succeptable to SAM than close air support.

bt

The Turks have the M270 MLRS, with the MGM-140 ATACMS missile and that will fly 300km. They also have other MLRS which can reach about 180km as well.

In addition, Turkey has an arsenal of a variety of short-ranged ballistic missiles; looking at roughly 300-900km of range on those weapons.
 
JayinKitsap
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Re: 2 Syrian su24s shot down by Turkey's f16s

Tue Mar 03, 2020 5:44 am

Action is certainly increasing when aircraft are falling from the sky. It is going to get more intense in the coming months.

Erdogon and his Ego have put him into a real bind. The Guardian article linked gives a decent background to Turkey getting here.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... yria-assad

Some of the key factors that have the US drifting far away from Turkey, the US response and tactics seem to just be giving Erdogon some extra rope to hang themselves:

-The S-300/S-400 missiles and the F-35: That maneuver cost the F-35 program almost a billion to shift F-35 parts production out of Turkey. Note how Erdo was surprised he didn't keep the F-35's.

-Turkey going into Libya - NATO not impressed.

-Last fall the 6 Oct announcement that the US was withdrawing from Syria was based on Erdo's assurances of good behavior, which didn't happen. Interesting, the US did not totally withdraw but stayed at the Oil Fields. This was to prevent both Russia and Turkey from getting the $ from it to fund their 'activities', Russia doesn't have a lot of money to spend and is quite miffed how they need to escalate in response. Meanwhile, Trump needs the rest of NATO to decide that Turkey needs to leave.

-Turkey has threatened to deny use of Incirlik Air Base.

-The EU is very upset with the repeated blackmail - send money or get loads of refugee's


It may be close where a super majority of the NATO members expel Turkey from NATO. NATO is required to defend any invasion of a member Country, but helping Turkey in Syria isn't happening. The US wants to stay neutral in Syria and is happy to get out the popcorn to watch the show.
 
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Re: 2 Syrian su24s shot down by Turkey's f16s

Tue Mar 03, 2020 10:56 am

tu204 wrote:
bikerthai wrote:
keesje wrote:
Small detail: the Su-24 is an old bomber (1975?), not a fighter, interception a few Su-30s might have been more interesting.
I guess the Turkish F16s where defending Syrian airspace.. W'll come up a twist to make people understand the real truth.


How many planes does the Syrian Airforce have left? I mean if Turkey wants to stabilize the front line, it will need to control the air over the opposition territory. Without the support of the Syrian Airforce, the current offensive will not hold. Turkey will have the advantage of the 737 AEW&C to monitor the airspace over the contested territory . Do they have sufficient forces to establish air superiority over the area if they want to?

Syria is already partitioned east west along the Euphrates. I suppose the Turkish goal right not is not necessary to dominate the local politics but to set up a third partition to prevent the further refugee crisis. That is a goal that the west can live with and support and may even provide arms to maintain (a tri-partition Syria).

bt


All needed to stop Turkish aerial superiority, assuming Russia takes no active role, is for Syria move some air defences closer to the combat zone..


That is all Syria needs to be a former user of those air defense systems....

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Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
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Erebus
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Re: 2 Syrian su24s shot down by Turkey's f16s

Tue Mar 03, 2020 12:23 pm

JayinKitsap wrote:
Action is certainly increasing when aircraft are falling from the sky. It is going to get more intense in the coming months.

Erdogon and his Ego have put him into a real bind. The Guardian article linked gives a decent background to Turkey getting here.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... yria-assad

Some of the key factors that have the US drifting far away from Turkey, the US response and tactics seem to just be giving Erdogon some extra rope to hang themselves:

-The S-300/S-400 missiles and the F-35: That maneuver cost the F-35 program almost a billion to shift F-35 parts production out of Turkey. Note how Erdo was surprised he didn't keep the F-35's.

-Turkey going into Libya - NATO not impressed.

-Last fall the 6 Oct announcement that the US was withdrawing from Syria was based on Erdo's assurances of good behavior, which didn't happen. Interesting, the US did not totally withdraw but stayed at the Oil Fields. This was to prevent both Russia and Turkey from getting the $ from it to fund their 'activities', Russia doesn't have a lot of money to spend and is quite miffed how they need to escalate in response. Meanwhile, Trump needs the rest of NATO to decide that Turkey needs to leave.

-Turkey has threatened to deny use of Incirlik Air Base.

-The EU is very upset with the repeated blackmail - send money or get loads of refugee's


It may be close where a super majority of the NATO members expel Turkey from NATO. NATO is required to defend any invasion of a member Country, but helping Turkey in Syria isn't happening. The US wants to stay neutral in Syria and is happy to get out the popcorn to watch the show.


Erdogan's been pushing all the wrong buttons. You can add to that list, the bombing of Kurds and the deteriorating rights and freedoms in his own country. He's a madman who's pissed off everybody, the US, EU, Russia, his regional neighbours and his own people of course.
 
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bikerthai
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Re: 2 Syrian su24s shot down by Turkey's f16s

Tue Mar 03, 2020 2:09 pm

ThePointblank wrote:
The Turks have the M270 MLRS, with the MGM-140 ATACMS missile and that will fly 300km. They also have other MLRS which can reach about 180km as well.In addition, Turkey has an arsenal of a variety of short-ranged ballistic missiles; looking at roughly 300-900km of range on those weapons.


The MLRS would be expensive and may be difficult to replace. You'll have to run the numbers to see if it would be a worthy trade to take out some AA missile batteries. If you are talking about just standard artillery, would it push the AA batteries far enough back to limit their effectiveness on high flying fighters intercepting flow flying helicopters and attack aircrafts?

But again, maybe a few shots of the MLRS may be enough to discourage the Syrian from bringing those AA batteries forward.

bt
Intelligent seeks knowledge. Enlightened seeks wisdom.
 
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bikerthai
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Re: 2 Syrian su24s shot down by Turkey's f16s

Wed Mar 04, 2020 5:02 pm

There is an article in Aljezara mentioning Turkey using armed drones to suppress AA systems. With the range of the drones, I guess that could push Syrian AA batteries back far enough to make them less potent.

bt
Intelligent seeks knowledge. Enlightened seeks wisdom.
 
Ozair
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Re: 2 Syrian su24s shot down by Turkey's f16s

Wed Mar 04, 2020 9:40 pm

bikerthai wrote:
There is an article in Aljezara mentioning Turkey using armed drones to suppress AA systems. With the range of the drones, I guess that could push Syrian AA batteries back far enough to make them less potent.

bt
bikerthai wrote:
ThePointblank wrote:
The Turks have the M270 MLRS, with the MGM-140 ATACMS missile and that will fly 300km. They also have other MLRS which can reach about 180km as well.In addition, Turkey has an arsenal of a variety of short-ranged ballistic missiles; looking at roughly 300-900km of range on those weapons.


The MLRS would be expensive and may be difficult to replace. You'll have to run the numbers to see if it would be a worthy trade to take out some AA missile batteries. If you are talking about just standard artillery, would it push the AA batteries far enough back to limit their effectiveness on high flying fighters intercepting flow flying helicopters and attack aircrafts?

But again, maybe a few shots of the MLRS may be enough to discourage the Syrian from bringing those AA batteries forward.

bt

bt there are a lot of factors that go into the decision to place SAM systems in forward locations. It is never just a matter of the range of the threat systems. The threat plays a role, as does the value of the assets the SAM system is there to protect. A big factor is how integrated the SAM system is into the C2 network. If connected to a C2 network the SAM system may not need to use its own radars for acquisition and therefore only radiate when required to engage a target. That obviously allows the system to be placed and operate forward and only radiate, alerting threat aircraft in the process, when prosecuting a target.

If you looked at the current Syrian ORBAT for SAMS, the concern is the Buk, Pantsir S-1 and maybe the S-300s (if Syrian crews are proficient enough to operate it effectively). You would expect Turkey has countermeasures and EW that is reasonably effective against the rest of the SAM ORBAT. Even then, we have seen enough Israeli incursions into Syria to debate either the effectiveness of the Syrian C2 network or the capability of their SAM systems and operators.

In the context of the above, it would be a significant escalation if Turkey was launching MLRS deep into Syria to hit Air Defence targets… You would also expect, after the Russian shoot down, that Syrian Air defence forces engaging Turkish aircraft would be very hesitant.
 
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bikerthai
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Re: 2 Syrian su24s shot down by Turkey's f16s

Thu Mar 05, 2020 3:25 am

Ozair wrote:
That obviously allows the system to be placed and operate forward and only radiate, alerting threat aircraft in the process, when prosecuting a target


Even if only the missiles are forward deploy, it would just be a matter of time for the attrission war to make the system not effective.

The Turkish drones are indigineous where as the SAM have to be bought from Russia.

bt
Intelligent seeks knowledge. Enlightened seeks wisdom.

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