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johns624
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Hypothetical Scottish Military

Mon Dec 28, 2020 11:59 pm

With there being a Brexit deal, I read the other day that the SNP is talking about another independence vote. While I don't think Scotland will secede, I was thinking what their military would look like. On the one hand, the present political climate seems to be quite socialistic. On the other hand, the Scottish have a strong martial history. I think their defense needs have to be focused on their critical geographical location. I also know they can't just throw money at new arms. The whole independence process would take several years, so I'm thinking of what weapons could be acquired used during that time as other nations renew their weapons.
Since this is a mainly aviation forum, I'll start with the air force-- one squadron of fighters (12-16) with both A2A and maritime strike capabilities. I would think some ex-RNoAF F16's would work since they are equipped for firing the Penguin ASM. Second choice would be the Saab Gripen.
3-4 P3's would also be needed. I'd get them from whoever you could get refurbished ones from at that time.
3-4 C130's would also be useful.
With the North Sea oilfields being vulnerable and with Scotland being close to where adversary submarines would try to enter the Atlantic, 3 ASW frigates would be needed. Depending on what would be available, either refurbished full capability Type 26, RCN Halifax-class or (as a last resort) RAN Anzac frigates would suffice. In time, they could be replaced with Type 31 or Absalon class frigates. Three OPV's would also be useful for fisheries protection, etc. I have no preference on which ones, as long as they can handle North Sea conditions.
The army would be a tough one. Although MBT's would be available from several sources (M1 Abrams from US, Challenger 2 from UK and Leopard 2 from several countries), I don't think they'd be needed. I'd go for a brigade sized force with 2 maneuver battalions, plus other units. Each would have 3-4 companies. The first battalion would be mechanized, using LAV25s. The second would be light/motorized. Artillery would be 105mm Light Guns. There would be a separate company (+) sized SF unit. It would have responsibility for anti-terrorist and oil rig protection. It would also have LRRP capabilities. The army should have enough medium lift helicopters to transport an infantry company in one lift.
What are your opinions? Flame suit on!
 
Ozair
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Re: Hypothetical Scottish Military

Tue Dec 29, 2020 1:39 am

If it happened I would expect Scottish independence would involve remaining within the UK military, not sure how that would work but independence in this case would be a rather unique situation. Scotland is hardly going to erect a border and require passport access to remaining UK residents and both nations would have mutual defence in mind. Additionally moving current UK forces out of Scotland would be near impossible or at least take a long time. The UK would essentially have to move the entire nuclear submarine force...

The other option would be similar to when the USSR broke up, with Scotland keeping some military elements for themselves, such as a few current RN ships, maybe a squadron or two of Typhoons and current long standing army units. Scotland would be responsible for their upkeep with those units probably remaining as components of a E/W/NI/S military. Even if they stay separate to the UK military I don't see them going out and buying weapons on the open market as a breakup would see them taken on some existing weapons.
 
johns624
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Re: Hypothetical Scottish Military

Tue Dec 29, 2020 1:56 am

I really don't think it would happen, just like I don't think Quebec will leave Canada (or Texas, the US). It sounds better than it actually is. They all want independence but want to maintain a "special relationship". Sorry, you're either just another independent country or you're a part of us.
 
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Kiwirob
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Re: Hypothetical Scottish Military

Tue Dec 29, 2020 7:03 am

Ozair wrote:
If it happened I would expect Scottish independence would involve remaining within the UK military, not sure how that would work but independence in this case would be a rather unique situation. Scotland is hardly going to erect a border and require passport access to remaining UK residents and both nations would have mutual defence in mind. Additionally moving current UK forces out of Scotland would be near impossible or at least take a long time. The UK would essentially have to move the entire nuclear submarine force...

The other option would be similar to when the USSR broke up, with Scotland keeping some military elements for themselves, such as a few current RN ships, maybe a squadron or two of Typhoons and current long standing army units. Scotland would be responsible for their upkeep with those units probably remaining as components of a E/W/NI/S military. Even if they stay separate to the UK military I don't see them going out and buying weapons on the open market as a breakup would see them taken on some existing weapons.


Scotland has made it pretty clear that if or when they leave they will become an EU member, this means there will be a hard border between England and Scotland.
 
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kitplane01
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Re: Hypothetical Scottish Military

Tue Dec 29, 2020 7:29 am

Kiwirob wrote:
Ozair wrote:
If it happened I would expect Scottish independence would involve remaining within the UK military, not sure how that would work but independence in this case would be a rather unique situation. Scotland is hardly going to erect a border and require passport access to remaining UK residents and both nations would have mutual defence in mind. Additionally moving current UK forces out of Scotland would be near impossible or at least take a long time. The UK would essentially have to move the entire nuclear submarine force...

The other option would be similar to when the USSR broke up, with Scotland keeping some military elements for themselves, such as a few current RN ships, maybe a squadron or two of Typhoons and current long standing army units. Scotland would be responsible for their upkeep with those units probably remaining as components of a E/W/NI/S military. Even if they stay separate to the UK military I don't see them going out and buying weapons on the open market as a breakup would see them taken on some existing weapons.


Scotland has made it pretty clear that if or when they leave they will become an EU member, this means there will be a hard border between England and Scotland.


And England has made it clear that the submarines will move out of Scotland. Zero chance of a shared military. Neither side wants it.
 
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kitplane01
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Re: Hypothetical Scottish Military

Tue Dec 29, 2020 7:31 am

Ozair wrote:
If it happened I would expect Scottish independence would involve remaining within the UK military, not sure how that would work but independence in this case would be a rather unique situation. Scotland is hardly going to erect a border and require passport access to remaining UK residents and both nations would have mutual defence in mind. Additionally moving current UK forces out of Scotland would be near impossible or at least take a long time. The UK would essentially have to move the entire nuclear submarine force...



Yep, that's their stated plan. Also, English money going north would be unpalatable.
 
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kitplane01
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Re: Hypothetical Scottish Military

Tue Dec 29, 2020 7:54 am

johns624 wrote:
With there being a Brexit deal, I read the other day that the SNP is talking about another independence vote. While I don't think Scotland will secede, I was thinking what their military would look like. On the one hand, the present political climate seems to be quite socialistic. On the other hand, the Scottish have a strong martial history. I think their defense needs have to be focused on their critical geographical location. I also know they can't just throw money at new arms. The whole independence process would take several years, so I'm thinking of what weapons could be acquired used during that time as other nations renew their weapons.
Since this is a mainly aviation forum, I'll start with the air force-- one squadron of fighters (12-16) with both A2A and maritime strike capabilities. I would think some ex-RNoAF F16's would work since they are equipped for firing the Penguin ASM. Second choice would be the Saab Gripen.
3-4 P3's would also be needed. I'd get them from whoever you could get refurbished ones from at that time.
3-4 C130's would also be useful.
With the North Sea oilfields being vulnerable and with Scotland being close to where adversary submarines would try to enter the Atlantic, 3 ASW frigates would be needed. Depending on what would be available, either refurbished full capability Type 26, RCN Halifax-class or (as a last resort) RAN Anzac frigates would suffice. In time, they could be replaced with Type 31 or Absalon class frigates. Three OPV's would also be useful for fisheries protection, etc. I have no preference on which ones, as long as they can handle North Sea conditions.
The army would be a tough one. Although MBT's would be available from several sources (M1 Abrams from US, Challenger 2 from UK and Leopard 2 from several countries), I don't think they'd be needed. I'd go for a brigade sized force with 2 maneuver battalions, plus other units. Each would have 3-4 companies. The first battalion would be mechanized, using LAV25s. The second would be light/motorized. Artillery would be 105mm Light Guns. There would be a separate company (+) sized SF unit. It would have responsibility for anti-terrorist and oil rig protection. It would also have LRRP capabilities. The army should have enough medium lift helicopters to transport an infantry company in one lift.
What are your opinions? Flame suit on!



All of that is crazy. Not even close.

Let's imagine an independent Scotland at war

With who: A war with England is both unthinkable and would be decided by European politicians, not tanks. A war with Russia ... the Scottish military would not decide that war either. A fishing war with Iceland? Who do you think Scotland is going to fight?

Where will it fight: No Scottish politician is sending troops to Iraq, or Africa, or anywhere further than a training mission to Norway. Small UN peacekeeping missions would be OK. For example, Ireland sent 200 troops to Chad in 2007, 115 troops to Syria in 2013 (UN missions). It would be political suicide.

Money: Right now Scotland is spending $0 on military, is being subsidized by England, running a deficit, and the people want more social programs not less.

Similar nations: Ireland. They have a very similar population and GDP. They have similar military needs (none + light UN peacekeeping).

Equipment: You eventually get what Ireland gets ... 80 Piranha APCs for the Army, a pair of C-235 for the Air Force, and five patrol vessels with 76MM cannons as the main weapon for the navy. Note the Irish navy has 0 sonars and 0 torpedos.

Summary: Finland, Scotland, and Ireland all have about the same population and economy. You've described a Finland like military, for an Ireland like situation. Ireland spends about 1 billion Euros, and Finland spends about 3 billion Euros. Scotland will start with 0, and go from there.
 
Noray
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Re: Hypothetical Scottish Military

Tue Dec 29, 2020 10:39 am

kitplane01 wrote:
Money: Right now Scotland is spending $0 on military

Are you trying to say that nobody in Scotland pays their taxes?

kitplane01 wrote:
Scotland will start with 0, and go from there.

This also ignores the military history of Scotland and the Scottish units in the British Army.
 
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Kiwirob
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Re: Hypothetical Scottish Military

Tue Dec 29, 2020 11:09 am

Noray wrote:
kitplane01 wrote:
Money: Right now Scotland is spending $0 on military

Are you trying to say that nobody in Scotland pays their taxes?

kitplane01 wrote:
Scotland will start with 0, and go from there.

This also ignores the military history of Scotland and the Scottish units in the British Army.


The Scottish parliament don't pay anything for defense, they do cover there own fisheries patrol costs, they have three small fisheries patrol vessels and a handful of light aircraft.
 
Noray
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Re: Hypothetical Scottish Military

Tue Dec 29, 2020 11:20 am

Kiwirob wrote:
Noray wrote:
kitplane01 wrote:
Money: Right now Scotland is spending $0 on military

Are you trying to say that nobody in Scotland pays their taxes?

kitplane01 wrote:
Scotland will start with 0, and go from there.

This also ignores the military history of Scotland and the Scottish units in the British Army.


The Scottish parliament don't pay anything for defense, they do cover there own fisheries patrol costs, they have three small fisheries patrol vessels and a handful of light aircraft.

In a thread titled "Hypothetical Scottish Military", the Scottish parliament's tasks in the current situation arent too relevant.
 
angad84
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Re: Hypothetical Scottish Military

Tue Dec 29, 2020 12:19 pm

I suspect Scotland will privilege EEZ protection first and foremost, then sovereignty, and nil attention to expeditionary. So a strong patrol fleet, light/medium MPA (god, what I wouldn't give for a Do 228 resurgence) and maybe a little later a nascent QRA capability, or they can get a BAP/IAP type solution going with the EU/NATO air forces (UK would be a bit of an issue here, but what the heck).
 
Reddevil556
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Re: Hypothetical Scottish Military

Tue Dec 29, 2020 1:19 pm

A couple of twin engine civil transport aircraft for diplomatic purposes. The look of the Scottish National Police Force or something similar to that would be more likely.
Jumped out of: C130H, C130J, C17A, C212, CH47, and UH60. Bucket list: C160, A400, C2
 
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GCT64
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Re: Hypothetical Scottish Military

Tue Dec 29, 2020 6:08 pm

I agree that an "Ireland-like" military is the most likely scenario:
    Small but capable Army to take part in "EU Army" and UN peacekeeping ops.
    Air force will have some transports, MPA (e.g. C-295) and some helicopters (probably AW139 class). No combat aircraft.
    Navy will be fisheries/EEZ patrol.
Depending on how acrimonious the split is, I could see rUK (remainder UK) leasing RAF Lossiemouth from the Scottish government.

(oh, and I forgot the pair of A330 VIP transports for the rather self-important government ;) )
Flown in: A20N,A21N,A30B,A306,A310,A319,A320,A321,A332,A333,A343,A346,A359,A388,BA11,BU31,(..56 more types..),VC10,WESX
 
aumaverick
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Re: Hypothetical Scottish Military

Tue Dec 29, 2020 7:27 pm

If we're being hypothetical, why not go all-in on an all C-130 fleet? Save on training, maintenance and operating costs through use of a single aircraft.

- 1 Squadron of 8 C-130Js for transport and VIP purposes.
For VIP movement, utilize a palletized or roll-on/off trailer https://www.sgamf.com/suites.html
Assuming the Scottish Army is outfitted with the Piranha IV APCs, they also fit in the C-130.

- 1 Squadron of 12 C-130Js for combat missions.
4 HC-130J for long range patrol and air-sea rescue using the Lockheed MPA kit
4 KC-130Js for refueling and pair them with the Harvest Hawk kits for tactical ground attack.
4 AC-130Js for ground attack
I'm just here so I won't get fined. - Marshawn Lynch
 
A101
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Re: Hypothetical Scottish Military

Tue Dec 29, 2020 10:21 pm

kitplane01 wrote:
Kiwirob wrote:
Ozair wrote:
If it happened I would expect Scottish independence would involve remaining within the UK military, not sure how that would work but independence in this case would be a rather unique situation. Scotland is hardly going to erect a border and require passport access to remaining UK residents and both nations would have mutual defence in mind. Additionally moving current UK forces out of Scotland would be near impossible or at least take a long time. The UK would essentially have to move the entire nuclear submarine force...

The other option would be similar to when the USSR broke up, with Scotland keeping some military elements for themselves, such as a few current RN ships, maybe a squadron or two of Typhoons and current long standing army units. Scotland would be responsible for their upkeep with those units probably remaining as components of a E/W/NI/S military. Even if they stay separate to the UK military I don't see them going out and buying weapons on the open market as a breakup would see them taken on some existing weapons.


Scotland has made it pretty clear that if or when they leave they will become an EU member, this means there will be a hard border between England and Scotland.


And England has made it clear that the submarines will move out of Scotland. Zero chance of a shared military. Neither side wants it.



Along with shipbuilding, the division of assets will be the biggest problem with the breakup both inside and outside the UK
 
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flyingturtle
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Re: Hypothetical Scottish Military

Tue Dec 29, 2020 10:39 pm

Regarding the nuclear subs that operate out of Faslane...

Could Scotland hand the nukes over to England - in exchange for a loosely enforced promise not to get invaded?
Reading accident reports is what calms me down
 
RJMAZ
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Re: Hypothetical Scottish Military

Tue Dec 29, 2020 11:18 pm

aumaverick wrote:
1 Squadron of 8 C-130Js for transport and VIP purposes.

The words C-130 and VIP purposes should not be used in the same sentence :lol:

I think most VIP would rather fly economy than sit in a C-130J. They would need some plush VIP earmuffs for the flight :mrgreen:
 
A101
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Re: Hypothetical Scottish Military

Tue Dec 29, 2020 11:46 pm

If Scotland was smart they will just raid what’s currently in inventory with a fair bit of life left in them so no need to replace in the next 20 or so years. But I think for a viable defence force it should have a minimum manning of 18000 pers in uniform across the 3 branches

The capability will depend on actual budget, so I am not really expecting any of this but I think is the minimum needed

Scottish Airforce (All aircraft owned by Airforce like RNZAF)
No. 2& 6 Squadron RAF (Eurofighter Typhoon 12 aircraft ideally 18 each)
4x A400
3x P8 Poseidon
18x AW159 Wildcat
6x Chinook HC6
2x A330 Voyager

Scottish Navy

4x City Class (Type 26)
6x Archer-class IPV
4x River-class OPV

2x Wave class (replaced by 2 new vessels to help offset RN shipbuilding)
2x Bay class ( replaced with a variant of Singapore 170 Endurance class)
http://nighthawk.nz/index.php?option=co ... Itemid=111

Scottish Army

Structured along British Army with combined combat arms teams based along the 4th infantry Brigade using same equipment for cooperation and ease of logistics with the UK defence force plus enablers such as SOF and logistics
 
A101
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Re: Hypothetical Scottish Military

Tue Dec 29, 2020 11:49 pm

flyingturtle wrote:
Regarding the nuclear subs that operate out of Faslane...

Could Scotland hand the nukes over to England - in exchange for a loosely enforced promise not to get invaded?



Well I think they would get invaded if they didn’t hand them over as an independent Scotland would be in breech of The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons,
 
johns624
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Re: Hypothetical Scottish Military

Wed Dec 30, 2020 12:20 am

A101 wrote:
flyingturtle wrote:
Regarding the nuclear subs that operate out of Faslane...

Could Scotland hand the nukes over to England - in exchange for a loosely enforced promise not to get invaded?



Well I think they would get invaded if they didn’t hand them over as an independent Scotland would be in breech of The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons,

Right before or after Israel?
 
A101
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Re: Hypothetical Scottish Military

Wed Dec 30, 2020 2:22 am

johns624 wrote:
A101 wrote:
flyingturtle wrote:
Regarding the nuclear subs that operate out of Faslane...

Could Scotland hand the nukes over to England - in exchange for a loosely enforced promise not to get invaded?



Well I think they would get invaded if they didn’t hand them over as an independent Scotland would be in breech of The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons,

Right before or after Israel?


Israel?

Israel hasn’t signed up to any WMD programs such as NPT. But whilst Israel ate non-committal on such weapons programs, Scotland on the other hand would be on the receiving end of known nuclear weapons which the UK would be in breech if NPT hence if Scotland were say no in return UK nuclear property the UK in fact all signatories to the convention would have the right to recover such weapon systems
 
johns624
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Re: Hypothetical Scottish Military

Wed Dec 30, 2020 2:42 am

Scotland wouldn't be a signatory, either. They'd be a newly independent nation.
 
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LyleLanley
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Re: Hypothetical Scottish Military

Wed Dec 30, 2020 3:50 am

A101 wrote:
flyingturtle wrote:
Regarding the nuclear subs that operate out of Faslane...

Could Scotland hand the nukes over to England - in exchange for a loosely enforced promise not to get invaded?



Well I think they would get invaded if they didn’t hand them over as an independent Scotland would be in breech of The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons,


That's cute. I suppose regime change is in order for countries in violation of the Interpol treaty, too.
"I've sold monorails to Brockway, Ogdenville, and North Haverbrook, and, by gum, it put them on the map!"
 
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kitplane01
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Re: Hypothetical Scottish Military

Wed Dec 30, 2020 8:07 am

A101 wrote:
If Scotland was smart they will just raid what’s currently in inventory with a fair bit of life left in them so no need to replace in the next 20 or so years. But I think for a viable defence force it should have a minimum manning of 18000 pers in uniform across the 3 branches

The capability will depend on actual budget, so I am not really expecting any of this but I think is the minimum needed

Scottish Airforce (All aircraft owned by Airforce like RNZAF)
No. 2& 6 Squadron RAF (Eurofighter Typhoon 12 aircraft ideally 18 each)
4x A400
3x P8 Poseidon
18x AW159 Wildcat
6x Chinook HC6
2x A330 Voyager

Scottish Navy

4x City Class (Type 26)
6x Archer-class IPV
4x River-class OPV

2x Wave class (replaced by 2 new vessels to help offset RN shipbuilding)
2x Bay class ( replaced with a variant of Singapore 170 Endurance class)
http://nighthawk.nz/index.php?option=co ... Itemid=111

Scottish Army

Structured along British Army with combined combat arms teams based along the 4th infantry Brigade using same equipment for cooperation and ease of logistics with the UK defence force plus enablers such as SOF and logistics


Ireland spends about 1 billion Euros on it’s military. With the same population and GDP, you seem to be assuming that Scotland will spend 2x or 3x that amount. This seems unlikely.
 
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kitplane01
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Re: Hypothetical Scottish Military

Wed Dec 30, 2020 8:17 am

aumaverick wrote:
If we're being hypothetical, why not go all-in on an all C-130 fleet? Save on training, maintenance and operating costs through use of a single aircraft.

- 1 Squadron of 8 C-130Js for transport and VIP purposes.
For VIP movement, utilize a palletized or roll-on/off trailer https://www.sgamf.com/suites.html
Assuming the Scottish Army is outfitted with the Piranha IV APCs, they also fit in the C-130.

- 1 Squadron of 12 C-130Js for combat missions.
4 HC-130J for long range patrol and air-sea rescue using the Lockheed MPA kit
4 KC-130Js for refueling and pair them with the Harvest Hawk kits for tactical ground attack.
4 AC-130Js for ground attack


Ireland has 2 C-235 for transport. Denmark has 4 C-130s. Austria has 3 C-130s. In no world will Scotland operate 20 C-130s.

Poland has 5 C-130s and 16 C-295 (and 8 time the population).
Greece only has 15 C-130s, and twice the population, and a real threat to face militarily.

Look at other similar European powers (like Ireland, with it’s 2 C235s). Pick nations that are not on a hostile borders, and have about 5M people. Ireland, Austria, Switzerland, Denmark, Norway. Expect about the same.
 
A101
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Re: Hypothetical Scottish Military

Wed Dec 30, 2020 11:13 am

LyleLanley wrote:
A101 wrote:
flyingturtle wrote:
Regarding the nuclear subs that operate out of Faslane...

Could Scotland hand the nukes over to England - in exchange for a loosely enforced promise not to get invaded?



Well I think they would get invaded if they didn’t hand them over as an independent Scotland would be in breech of The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons,


That's cute. I suppose regime change is in order for countries in violation of the Interpol treaty, too.



Who’s talking regimen change, as soon as foreign force enter Scotland to retrieve said Submarines and weapons that is an act of war and invasion of Scotland irrespective of intentions.
 
A101
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Re: Hypothetical Scottish Military

Wed Dec 30, 2020 11:20 am

kitplane01 wrote:
A101 wrote:
If Scotland was smart they will just raid what’s currently in inventory with a fair bit of life left in them so no need to replace in the next 20 or so years. But I think for a viable defence force it should have a minimum manning of 18000 pers in uniform across the 3 branches

The capability will depend on actual budget, so I am not really expecting any of this but I think is the minimum needed

Scottish Airforce (All aircraft owned by Airforce like RNZAF)
No. 2& 6 Squadron RAF (Eurofighter Typhoon 12 aircraft ideally 18 each)
4x A400
3x P8 Poseidon
18x AW159 Wildcat
6x Chinook HC6
2x A330 Voyager

Scottish Navy

4x City Class (Type 26)
6x Archer-class IPV
4x River-class OPV

2x Wave class (replaced by 2 new vessels to help offset RN shipbuilding)
2x Bay class ( replaced with a variant of Singapore 170 Endurance class)
http://nighthawk.nz/index.php?option=co ... Itemid=111

Scottish Army

Structured along British Army with combined combat arms teams based along the 4th infantry Brigade using same equipment for cooperation and ease of logistics with the UK defence force plus enablers such as SOF and logistics


Ireland spends about 1 billion Euros on it’s military. With the same population and GDP, you seem to be assuming that Scotland will spend 2x or 3x that amount. This seems unlikely.


I did say it depends on the budget allocations which for Ireland stands at approx 0.27% of GDP, if Scotland spends the 2% desired at NATO the list should be doable
 
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flyingturtle
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Re: Hypothetical Scottish Military

Wed Dec 30, 2020 11:57 am

A101 wrote:
flyingturtle wrote:
Regarding the nuclear subs that operate out of Faslane...

Could Scotland hand the nukes over to England - in exchange for a loosely enforced promise not to get invaded?



Well I think they would get invaded if they didn’t hand them over as an independent Scotland would be in breech of The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons,


As somebody mentioned, Scotland would be a new state and as such would not have any obligations under any treaties. Why, if it hasn't signed any? Scotland wouldn't inherit any treaties the UK has previously signed.

Well, my question regarding the Scottish nukes was a rather obvious pun on Ukraine, Donbass and the Krim.
Reading accident reports is what calms me down
 
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Kiwirob
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Re: Hypothetical Scottish Military

Wed Dec 30, 2020 12:57 pm

A101 wrote:
kitplane01 wrote:
Kiwirob wrote:

Scotland has made it pretty clear that if or when they leave they will become an EU member, this means there will be a hard border between England and Scotland.


And England has made it clear that the submarines will move out of Scotland. Zero chance of a shared military. Neither side wants it.



Along with shipbuilding, the division of assets will be the biggest problem with the breakup both inside and outside the UK


In the short term shipbuilding would be a problem, but eventually Rosyth and the Glasgow yards would be replaced. Frigate building could restart in Portsmouth and Cammell Lairds, larger vessels can also be built at Cammell Lairds, Harland & Wolfe and there are repair yards which could be converted to building yards.

I don't see Scotland getting any of the prime RN assets like the Type 45's, 26's, Tide Class.......I could see type 31 going to Scotland.
 
bennett123
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Re: Hypothetical Scottish Military

Wed Dec 30, 2020 1:12 pm

A101

Since Scotland doesn't want them, the point is somewhat academic.

Besides, they don't belong to Scotland.
 
johns624
Topic Author
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Re: Hypothetical Scottish Military

Wed Dec 30, 2020 3:28 pm

kitplane01 wrote:
Ireland spends about 1 billion Euros on it’s military. With the same population and GDP, you seem to be assuming that Scotland will spend 2x or 3x that amount. This seems unlikely.
You keep comparing Scotland against Ireland. Ireland is a worst case scenario. They are one of the worst underachievers when it comes to defense spending. They've always depended on the old mother country to shield them, even while talking smack about them.
 
johns624
Topic Author
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Re: Hypothetical Scottish Military

Wed Dec 30, 2020 3:40 pm

kitplane01 wrote:

Look at other similar European powers (like Ireland, with it’s 2 C235s). Pick nations that are not on a hostile borders, and have about 5M people. Ireland, Austria, Switzerland, Denmark, Norway. Expect about the same.
Okay, lets look at Denmark--5 front line frigates and several patrol frigates. 30+ F16s with 27 replacement F35s on order. The army has 57 Leopard 2s and well over a hundred Piranhas. Now, let's get on with Norway. 4 front line frigates (used to be 5) plus 6 subs, being replaced by new build German Type 212 boats. The air force has 50+ F16s with an equal number of F35As on order. They have 6 Orions, being replaced by 5 Poseidons. The army has 50+ L2s and over a hundred CV90s. All in all, these two countries were sort of what I was modeling my Scottish military after.
 
aumaverick
Posts: 155
Joined: Thu Jun 30, 2005 12:40 pm

Re: Hypothetical Scottish Military

Wed Dec 30, 2020 4:48 pm

kitplane01 wrote:
aumaverick wrote:
If we're being hypothetical, why not go all-in on an all C-130 fleet? Save on training, maintenance and operating costs through use of a single aircraft.

- 1 Squadron of 8 C-130Js for transport and VIP purposes.
For VIP movement, utilize a palletized or roll-on/off trailer https://www.sgamf.com/suites.html
Assuming the Scottish Army is outfitted with the Piranha IV APCs, they also fit in the C-130.

- 1 Squadron of 12 C-130Js for combat missions.
4 HC-130J for long range patrol and air-sea rescue using the Lockheed MPA kit
4 KC-130Js for refueling and pair them with the Harvest Hawk kits for tactical ground attack.
4 AC-130Js for ground attack


Ireland has 2 C-235 for transport. Denmark has 4 C-130s. Austria has 3 C-130s. In no world will Scotland operate 20 C-130s.

Poland has 5 C-130s and 16 C-295 (and 8 time the population).
Greece only has 15 C-130s, and twice the population, and a real threat to face militarily.

Look at other similar European powers (like Ireland, with it’s 2 C235s). Pick nations that are not on a hostile borders, and have about 5M people. Ireland, Austria, Switzerland, Denmark, Norway. Expect about the same.


Well, see, that's where you're wrong. In this hypothetical scenario, my Scotland doesn't have to compare itself to anyone else. My Scotland is a truly independent nation standing alone in its decisions.

As others have stated, these same nations to compare have fleets of F-16s, F-18s, F-35s, Gripens, frigates, leopard MBTs, subs, etc. My hypothetical Scotland won't need all of that.
Need to transport sheep, fish, haggis, bagpipes and the occasional army brigade? Use a Herc!
Fly around the prime minister? Use a Herc with a VIP trailer.
Patrol the oil rigs and fishing grounds from those pesky whales, NIMBY environmentalists, and trolling Russians? Use a Herc with the MPA kit.
Support UN missions or deter the English monarchy from taking holidays in the north during the summer? Use a Herc with Harvest Hawk kits.
Support your small army or suppress an invasion from Vikings? Use a Herc Ghostrider.

Sure you might need some boats, helicopters, and a couple brigades of troops backed up with some APCs. But for the most part, every other mission a hypothetically proud and independent Scotland could need can be met with a Herc. Plus, I just like the idea of an entire air force being made up of nothing but four engine turboprops.
I'm just here so I won't get fined. - Marshawn Lynch
 
GDB
Posts: 14255
Joined: Wed May 23, 2001 6:25 pm

Re: Hypothetical Scottish Military

Wed Dec 30, 2020 4:49 pm

johns624 wrote:
kitplane01 wrote:
Ireland spends about 1 billion Euros on it’s military. With the same population and GDP, you seem to be assuming that Scotland will spend 2x or 3x that amount. This seems unlikely.
You keep comparing Scotland against Ireland. Ireland is a worst case scenario. They are one of the worst underachievers when it comes to defense spending. They've always depended on the old mother country to shield them, even while talking smack about them.[/quote

While I am British, I would be rather offended if I was Irish at being called some supplicant of 'the Mother Country'.
The last time Ireland had a potential military threat, was arguably in WW2, when they had a Head Of State who was a veteran of their fight for independence. There was concern in Britain about a possible threat via 'the back door' however in reality Ireland quietly allowed British and later American aircraft and vessels to use facilities in Ireland in the Battle Of The Atlantic, a tricky thing for a declared neutral nation. On the other hand, had the U-Boats cut off the Atlantic supplies Ireland would starve too.

In the Cold War, a long new Battle Of The Atlantic was not likely to happen, Ireland did not seek to join NATO as was their right (what a contrast to the Warsaw Pact where membership came at the point of a T-34 tank cannon).
However they were, like Sweden, in the Western Camp, unlike the Swedes, the potential enemy was distant and Ireland offered little in strategic value to them.
So no heavily armed neutrality like Sweden.

Therefore Ireland's Defence Forces are directed at their immediate economic assets, hence their OPV based navy, ground forces for internal security and UN operations - the latter they have contributed to way out of proportion to their size.
Various terrorist groups, all deemed 'Subversives' by the Eire state, being an issue well before terrorism became the global concern it was, in the Troubles just being convicted as being a member of say the IRA often meant a longer prison sentence than in the UK.

With Scotland it's different, the SNP have stated, all along, that should they get their wish the Queen would still be their Head Of State, unlike Eire which is a Republic.
Therefore any Scottish forces, if such an entity existed, would be like the Canadian, Australian and New Zealand armed forces, with one massive difference, they would be sharing a border with England which is much better described as a 'Mother Country'.
So for practical purposes it's hard to see any significant Scottish Armed Forces.
 
Myv40
Posts: 5
Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2016 7:53 pm

Re: Hypothetical Scottish Military

Wed Dec 30, 2020 6:33 pm

This is what the SNP minister of defence had on his Christmas list....https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/defence ... -scotland/

16 Typhoon, 6 frigates & 6 Subs!! Nicola must know where Boris' magic money tree grows!
 
A101
Posts: 2464
Joined: Sun Dec 09, 2018 1:27 am

Re: Hypothetical Scottish Military

Wed Dec 30, 2020 7:05 pm

bennett123 wrote:
A101

Since Scotland doesn't want them, the point is somewhat academic.

Besides, they don't belong to Scotland.



Oh totally agree, but as with the title of the thread it was in response to this from flyingturtle, there is a marked difference from the situation from the collapse of the USSR and the weapons in the Ukraine to Scotland seeking independence and using said weapons as leverage in return for something that would not highly unlikely to happen anyway in the future


flyingturtle
Regarding the nuclear subs that operate out of Faslane...

Could Scotland hand the nukes over to England - in exchange for a loosely enforced promise not to get invaded?
 
A101
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Re: Hypothetical Scottish Military

Wed Dec 30, 2020 7:13 pm

flyingturtle wrote:
A101 wrote:
flyingturtle wrote:
Regarding the nuclear subs that operate out of Faslane...

Could Scotland hand the nukes over to England - in exchange for a loosely enforced promise not to get invaded?



Well I think they would get invaded if they didn’t hand them over as an independent Scotland would be in breech of The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons,


As somebody mentioned, Scotland would be a new state and as such would not have any obligations under any treaties. Why, if it hasn't signed any? Scotland wouldn't inherit any treaties the UK has previously signed.

Well, my question regarding the Scottish nukes was a rather obvious pun on Ukraine, Donbass and the Krim.


That would depend on the agreements for creating a new independent nation, just like Scotland is not bound by the UK deficit but there has to be agreements in place before hand.

But if Scotland went down that track (hypothetically) it could be classified as a rouge state by the U.N. security council and resolutions passed to retrieve said weapons by the UK by force if necessary
 
A101
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Re: Hypothetical Scottish Military

Wed Dec 30, 2020 7:24 pm

GDB wrote:
johns624 wrote:
kitplane01 wrote:
Ireland spends about 1 billion Euros on it’s military. With the same population and GDP, you seem to be assuming that Scotland will spend 2x or 3x that amount. This seems unlikely.
You keep comparing Scotland against Ireland. Ireland is a worst case scenario. They are one of the worst underachievers when it comes to defense spending. They've always depended on the old mother country to shield them, even while talking smack about them.[/quote

While I am British, I would be rather offended if I was Irish at being called some supplicant of 'the Mother Country'.
The last time Ireland had a potential military threat, was arguably in WW2, when they had a Head Of State who was a veteran of their fight for independence. There was concern in Britain about a possible threat via 'the back door' however in reality Ireland quietly allowed British and later American aircraft and vessels to use facilities in Ireland in the Battle Of The Atlantic, a tricky thing for a declared neutral nation. On the other hand, had the U-Boats cut off the Atlantic supplies Ireland would starve too.

In the Cold War, a long new Battle Of The Atlantic was not likely to happen, Ireland did not seek to join NATO as was their right (what a contrast to the Warsaw Pact where membership came at the point of a T-34 tank cannon).
However they were, like Sweden, in the Western Camp, unlike the Swedes, the potential enemy was distant and Ireland offered little in strategic value to them.
So no heavily armed neutrality like Sweden.

Therefore Ireland's Defence Forces are directed at their immediate economic assets, hence their OPV based navy, ground forces for internal security and UN operations - the latter they have contributed to way out of proportion to their size.
Various terrorist groups, all deemed 'Subversives' by the Eire state, being an issue well before terrorism became the global concern it was, in the Troubles just being convicted as being a member of say the IRA often meant a longer prison sentence than in the UK.

With Scotland it's different, the SNP have stated, all along, that should they get their wish the Queen would still be their Head Of State, unlike Eire which is a Republic.
Therefore any Scottish forces, if such an entity existed, would be like the Canadian, Australian and New Zealand armed forces, with one massive difference, they would be sharing a border with England which is much better described as a 'Mother Country'.
So for practical purposes it's hard to see any significant Scottish Armed Forces.



So in other words you want someone else to provide the resources to protect you, considering all the natural resources Scotland possess, heck Australia is not a threat to anyone but they do support international norms and have the ability to protect itself and commit to international peace something the EU wants to do with the proposed EU defence force
 
bennett123
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Re: Hypothetical Scottish Military

Wed Dec 30, 2020 7:28 pm

Myv40

You should see my Christmas list.
 
johns624
Topic Author
Posts: 3776
Joined: Mon Jul 07, 2008 11:09 pm

Re: Hypothetical Scottish Military

Wed Dec 30, 2020 8:29 pm

Myv40 wrote:
This is what the SNP minister of defence had on his Christmas list....https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/defence ... -scotland/

16 Typhoon, 6 frigates & 6 Subs!! Nicola must know where Boris' magic money tree grows!
After looking at that, my proposal seems reasonable...
 
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flyingturtle
Posts: 6127
Joined: Mon Oct 31, 2011 1:39 pm

Re: Hypothetical Scottish Military

Wed Dec 30, 2020 10:30 pm

Expecting Scotland to stay in NATO, it surely will get some help. There's so much water to surveillance...
Reading accident reports is what calms me down
 
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kitplane01
Posts: 1856
Joined: Thu Jun 16, 2016 5:58 am

Re: Hypothetical Scottish Military

Thu Dec 31, 2020 1:05 am

johns624 wrote:
kitplane01 wrote:

Look at other similar European powers (like Ireland, with it’s 2 C235s). Pick nations that are not on a hostile borders, and have about 5M people. Ireland, Austria, Switzerland, Denmark, Norway. Expect about the same.
Okay, lets look at Denmark--5 front line frigates and several patrol frigates. 30+ F16s with 27 replacement F35s on order. The army has 57 Leopard 2s and well over a hundred Piranhas. Now, let's get on with Norway. 4 front line frigates (used to be 5) plus 6 subs, being replaced by new build German Type 212 boats. The air force has 50+ F16s with an equal number of F35As on order. They have 6 Orions, being replaced by 5 Poseidons. The army has 50+ L2s and over a hundred CV90s. All in all, these two countries were sort of what I was modeling my Scottish military after.


Denmark is also an interesting case. And they do have a significant military.

The post you are quoting from was about C-130s. And I stand by that. But if Scotland decides to go the "we should contribute to NATO" route, the Danish/Norwegian model is about right (and we agree). If Scotland decides to go the "no one will attack us" route like Ireland, then no Typhoons.

Which seems more likely
1) Scotland spends money on defense
2) Scotland spends money on social programs
3) Scotland spends money like Greece

I personally don't get a vote. The only part of Ireland I've been to is Manchester. :-)
 
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kitplane01
Posts: 1856
Joined: Thu Jun 16, 2016 5:58 am

Re: Hypothetical Scottish Military

Thu Dec 31, 2020 1:07 am

flyingturtle wrote:
Expecting Scotland to stay in NATO, it surely will get some help. There's so much water to surveillance...


I imagine Ireland has an even larger water to search. And yet ...

(Although to be fair, so does Norway and Norway spends real money on defense.)
 
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kitplane01
Posts: 1856
Joined: Thu Jun 16, 2016 5:58 am

Re: Hypothetical Scottish Military

Thu Dec 31, 2020 1:09 am

A101 wrote:
GDB wrote:
johns624 wrote:
You keep comparing Scotland against Ireland. Ireland is a worst case scenario. They are one of the worst underachievers when it comes to defense spending. They've always depended on the old mother country to shield them, even while talking smack about them.[/quote

While I am British, I would be rather offended if I was Irish at being called some supplicant of 'the Mother Country'.
The last time Ireland had a potential military threat, was arguably in WW2, when they had a Head Of State who was a veteran of their fight for independence. There was concern in Britain about a possible threat via 'the back door' however in reality Ireland quietly allowed British and later American aircraft and vessels to use facilities in Ireland in the Battle Of The Atlantic, a tricky thing for a declared neutral nation. On the other hand, had the U-Boats cut off the Atlantic supplies Ireland would starve too.

In the Cold War, a long new Battle Of The Atlantic was not likely to happen, Ireland did not seek to join NATO as was their right (what a contrast to the Warsaw Pact where membership came at the point of a T-34 tank cannon).
However they were, like Sweden, in the Western Camp, unlike the Swedes, the potential enemy was distant and Ireland offered little in strategic value to them.
So no heavily armed neutrality like Sweden.

Therefore Ireland's Defence Forces are directed at their immediate economic assets, hence their OPV based navy, ground forces for internal security and UN operations - the latter they have contributed to way out of proportion to their size.
Various terrorist groups, all deemed 'Subversives' by the Eire state, being an issue well before terrorism became the global concern it was, in the Troubles just being convicted as being a member of say the IRA often meant a longer prison sentence than in the UK.

With Scotland it's different, the SNP have stated, all along, that should they get their wish the Queen would still be their Head Of State, unlike Eire which is a Republic.
Therefore any Scottish forces, if such an entity existed, would be like the Canadian, Australian and New Zealand armed forces, with one massive difference, they would be sharing a border with England which is much better described as a 'Mother Country'.
So for practical purposes it's hard to see any significant Scottish Armed Forces.



So in other words you want someone else to provide the resources to protect you, considering all the natural resources Scotland possess, heck Australia is not a threat to anyone but they do support international norms and have the ability to protect itself and commit to international peace something the EU wants to do with the proposed EU defence force


Yes.


If Australia was next to the US I would expect to see a defense system like Canada's. But they got put sort-kinda-next to China. Scotland is not next to China.
 
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kitplane01
Posts: 1856
Joined: Thu Jun 16, 2016 5:58 am

Re: Hypothetical Scottish Military

Thu Dec 31, 2020 1:13 am

aumaverick wrote:
kitplane01 wrote:
Look at other similar European powers (like Ireland, with it’s 2 C235s). Pick nations that are not on a hostile borders, and have about 5M people. Ireland, Austria, Switzerland, Denmark, Norway. Expect about the same.


Well, see, that's where you're wrong. In this hypothetical scenario, my Scotland doesn't have to compare itself to anyone else. My Scotland is a truly independent nation standing alone in its decisions.


Nope, not wrong. Scotland could do anything. But realistically, they will have the same choices and constrains as other, similar, nearby nations. And unless Scottish voters have wildly different preferences than the voters of all the other, similar, close nations around them, we should expect similar outcomes. I think the outcomes are somewhere between what Ireland and Denmark offer. And Scotland is more like Ireland than Denmark.
 
A101
Posts: 2464
Joined: Sun Dec 09, 2018 1:27 am

Re: Hypothetical Scottish Military

Thu Dec 31, 2020 3:18 am

kitplane01 wrote:
A101 wrote:
GDB wrote:
You keep comparing Scotland against Ireland. Ireland is a worst case scenario. They are one of the worst underachievers when it comes to defense spending. They've always depended on the old mother country to shield them, even while talking smack about them.[/quote

While I am British, I would be rather offended if I was Irish at being called some supplicant of 'the Mother Country'.
The last time Ireland had a potential military threat, was arguably in WW2, when they had a Head Of State who was a veteran of their fight for independence. There was concern in Britain about a possible threat via 'the back door' however in reality Ireland quietly allowed British and later American aircraft and vessels to use facilities in Ireland in the Battle Of The Atlantic, a tricky thing for a declared neutral nation. On the other hand, had the U-Boats cut off the Atlantic supplies Ireland would starve too.

In the Cold War, a long new Battle Of The Atlantic was not likely to happen, Ireland did not seek to join NATO as was their right (what a contrast to the Warsaw Pact where membership came at the point of a T-34 tank cannon).
However they were, like Sweden, in the Western Camp, unlike the Swedes, the potential enemy was distant and Ireland offered little in strategic value to them.
So no heavily armed neutrality like Sweden.

Therefore Ireland's Defence Forces are directed at their immediate economic assets, hence their OPV based navy, ground forces for internal security and UN operations - the latter they have contributed to way out of proportion to their size.
Various terrorist groups, all deemed 'Subversives' by the Eire state, being an issue well before terrorism became the global concern it was, in the Troubles just being convicted as being a member of say the IRA often meant a longer prison sentence than in the UK.

With Scotland it's different, the SNP have stated, all along, that should they get their wish the Queen would still be their Head Of State, unlike Eire which is a Republic.
Therefore any Scottish forces, if such an entity existed, would be like the Canadian, Australian and New Zealand armed forces, with one massive difference, they would be sharing a border with England which is much better described as a 'Mother Country'.
So for practical purposes it's hard to see any significant Scottish Armed Forces.



So in other words you want someone else to provide the resources to protect you, considering all the natural resources Scotland possess, heck Australia is not a threat to anyone but they do support international norms and have the ability to protect itself and commit to international peace something the EU wants to do with the proposed EU defence force


Yes.


If Australia was next to the US I would expect to see a defense system like Canada's. But they got put sort-kinda-next to China. Scotland is not next to China.


In that context its AU/NZ relationship and most people are disgusted how the NZGov has underfunded NZ defence for some time. I am not sure it would happen but would like to think a special relationship could develop with the Scott's it they become independent and stay free from the EU in a vein like the ANZAC's

Canada has NORAD responsibilities in protecting the North American airspace
 
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kitplane01
Posts: 1856
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Re: Hypothetical Scottish Military

Thu Dec 31, 2020 6:27 am

A101 wrote:
kitplane01 wrote:
A101 wrote:


So in other words you want someone else to provide the resources to protect you, considering all the natural resources Scotland possess, heck Australia is not a threat to anyone but they do support international norms and have the ability to protect itself and commit to international peace something the EU wants to do with the proposed EU defence force


Yes.


If Australia was next to the US I would expect to see a defense system like Canada's. But they got put sort-kinda-next to China. Scotland is not next to China.


In that context its AU/NZ relationship and most people are disgusted how the NZGov has underfunded NZ defence for some time. I am not sure it would happen but would like to think a special relationship could develop with the Scott's it they become independent and stay free from the EU in a vein like the ANZAC's

Canada has NORAD responsibilities in protecting the North American airspace



Canada flies 76 F-18A's (last modified 2008) and doesn't have enough pilots or spare parts to keep them in the air. Finland, with 1/6th the population, flies 56 F-18Cs. Norway, also with 1/6 the population, flies 44 F-16A and 15 F-35s (with another 40 on order).

The Canadian submarine fleet of 4 subs spent ZERO days at see last year. There's lots more.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/submar ... -1.5458632
 
A101
Posts: 2464
Joined: Sun Dec 09, 2018 1:27 am

Re: Hypothetical Scottish Military

Thu Dec 31, 2020 7:14 am

kitplane01 wrote:
A101 wrote:
kitplane01 wrote:

Yes.


If Australia was next to the US I would expect to see a defense system like Canada's. But they got put sort-kinda-next to China. Scotland is not next to China.


In that context its AU/NZ relationship and most people are disgusted how the NZGov has underfunded NZ defence for some time. I am not sure it would happen but would like to think a special relationship could develop with the Scott's it they become independent and stay free from the EU in a vein like the ANZAC's

Canada has NORAD responsibilities in protecting the North American airspace



Canada flies 76 F-18A's (last modified 2008) and doesn't have enough pilots or spare parts to keep them in the air. Finland, with 1/6th the population, flies 56 F-18Cs. Norway, also with 1/6 the population, flies 44 F-16A and 15 F-35s (with another 40 on order).

The Canadian submarine fleet of 4 subs spent ZERO days at see last year. There's lots more.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/submar ... -1.5458632


Im not saying that Canada is the right model to use just that they have commitments under NORAD, but then NZ got the deal of a lifetime off the Americans when it came down to replacing the scooters, but aunty Helen put that one out to pasture
 
GDB
Posts: 14255
Joined: Wed May 23, 2001 6:25 pm

Re: Hypothetical Scottish Military

Thu Dec 31, 2020 9:50 am

A101 wrote:
kitplane01 wrote:
A101 wrote:


So in other words you want someone else to provide the resources to protect you, considering all the natural resources Scotland possess, heck Australia is not a threat to anyone but they do support international norms and have the ability to protect itself and commit to international peace something the EU wants to do with the proposed EU defence force


Yes.


If Australia was next to the US I would expect to see a defense system like Canada's. But they got put sort-kinda-next to China. Scotland is not next to China.


In that context its AU/NZ relationship and most people are disgusted how the NZGov has underfunded NZ defence for some time. I am not sure it would happen but would like to think a special relationship could develop with the Scott's it they become independent and stay free from the EU in a vein like the ANZAC's

Canada has NORAD responsibilities in protecting the North American airspace


Are they? I mean are most people in NZ 'disgusted' at the A-4's being phased out without replacement?
I seriously doubt it, in the 20 years since has any NZ party had a platform of renewing their fast jets as it's a vote winner?
Maybe those F-16's were a 'good deal' at sticker price, they will have gone on to dominate spending by their upkeep.
 
A101
Posts: 2464
Joined: Sun Dec 09, 2018 1:27 am

Re: Hypothetical Scottish Military

Thu Dec 31, 2020 10:47 am

GDB wrote:
A101 wrote:
kitplane01 wrote:

Yes.


If Australia was next to the US I would expect to see a defense system like Canada's. But they got put sort-kinda-next to China. Scotland is not next to China.


In that context its AU/NZ relationship and most people are disgusted how the NZGov has underfunded NZ defence for some time. I am not sure it would happen but would like to think a special relationship could develop with the Scott's it they become independent and stay free from the EU in a vein like the ANZAC's

Canada has NORAD responsibilities in protecting the North American airspace


Are they? I mean are most people in NZ 'disgusted' at the A-4's being phased out without replacement?
I seriously doubt it, in the 20 years since has any NZ party had a platform of renewing their fast jets as it's a vote winner?
Maybe those F-16's were a 'good deal' at sticker price, they will have gone on to dominate spending by their upkeep.


I might have been preaching to the choir with that remark, but i do remember a lot of press in the media about it at the time even in the UK.

Once they were gone they were gone, the cost to reestablish the ACF would be far greater than the price of continuing with an ACF, that is why its never been on anyone radar until Ron Mark became Defence Minister, but no longer in the last GE

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