ELBOB wrote:

CDNlaxdad wrote:

Info released through the last month has revealed multiple missions and plans to expand the capabilities of a proven platform essentially already in US inventory.

Well yes, because they'll have to find roles for a type that they didn't want in the inventory. No point putting them straight into storage in a hangar if Congress isn't going to vote through funds for aeroplanes that they actually did want.

Make the most of what you get.

I understand the Navy is about to retire the first LCS ships.

Just to make sure I understand the claim ... within the next ten years we will need to replace about 200+ F-15s, and the USAF cannot train enough crews therefore we need to buy new F-15s at a cost of $100M each?

kitplane01 wrote:

desire to have fewer casualties,

The desire is to ACCOMPLISH THE MISSION with the fewest casualty. Can't accomplish the mission with not enough planes in the air.

ELBOB wrote:

Well yes, because they'll have to find roles for a type that they didn't want in the inventory.

Oh but they did want it. At least the part of the Air Force who put in the proposal. The politics was they did not want to reduce the number of F-35 frames, which ultimately congress agreed to the full buy.

kitplane01 wrote:

USAF cannot train enough crews therefore we need to buy new F-15s at a cost of $100M each?

That is what the USAF said. And if you doubt their statement then you should also doubt that the need that many F-35 in the first place.

Again it's not as if they are just going to burn the $100 mil after they have enough F-35's. The function of the F-15E would still be needed and the EX would slide into that function with a more capable frame.

You gotta stop thinking checkers when playing chess.

Heck, if you want to think in terms of 3D chess, then an argument can be made that they developed the EX not only for the US but for Israel and ultimately Japan and Korea as well as those three allies would ultimately want to get hypersonic and outsized weapon capabilities but do not have the fleet of heavy bombers to field them.

bt

kitplane01 wrote:

I understand the Navy is about to retire the first LCS ships.

Yeah, and the LCS program has had problems since the start. The shipyard that makes the Freedom-class is slated to make the FREMM frigates--much more useful ships. It wouldn't be surprised if the Zumwalts didn't slowly disappear over the next decade if they don't mod them enough to make them really useful.

bikerthai wrote:

kitplane01 wrote:

USAF cannot train enough crews therefore we need to buy new F-15s at a cost of $100M each?

That is what the USAF said. And if you doubt their statement then you should also doubt that the need that many F-35 in the first place.
...
You gotta stop thinking checkers when playing chess.

Heck, if you want to think in terms of 3D chess, then an argument can be made that they developed the EX not only for the US but for Israel and ultimately Japan and Korea as well as those three allies would ultimately want to get hypersonic and outsized weapon capabilities but do not have the fleet of heavy bombers to field them.

bt

I doubt their statement. And if you think it's really about Japan/Korea/Israel then you think they're not honest too.

kitplane01 wrote:

I doubt their statement.

Then I guess to you should dismiss their statement that they need more F-35 as well, just to be consistent.

kitplane01 wrote:

And if you think it's really about Japan/Korea/Israel then you think they're not honest too.

Err no. Maybe then the translation routine is not coming across correctly.

It's not that they are not honest about Japan/Korea/Israel. But the fact that those are potential customers for the EX is plain as day, though it DOES NOT DRIVE the original requirement.

The ability to sell more frames to allies is an economic question as well as a military one. Such opportunity may not be on top of mind for military leaders, but better be sure is laid in there lower down on the list in order to get support from the politicians.

Don't you remember that when the EX was proposed, Israel expressed interests as well? At least there is smoke to suggest the fire.

bt

A different take on the F-15EX buy;

https://hushkit.net/2021/05/27/fuck-ste ... ter-scope/

texl1649 wrote:

A different take on the F-15EX buy;

https://hushkit.net/2021/05/27/fuck-ste ... ter-scope/

Interesting. Thanks.

And quoting from the article .. "Fuck stealth. There isn’t an air force in the world that won’t turn tail and run from a wall of Eagles coming its way.".

I don't believe that. I wonder (maybe) if an equal sized group of Su-35s would continue forward, and I'm pretty sure an equal sized group of J-20s would. I'd put a group of Eurofighters as at least equal to a flight of F-15s, but I don't think we're gonna fight them.

kitplane01 wrote:

I wonder (maybe) if an equal sized group of Su-35s would continue forward, and I'm pretty sure an equal sized group of J-20s would

Consider a group of 8 F-15EX with 22 x long and medium range AA missiles each, how many missiles can 8 of those other fighters field? Note that if they try to field more than the internal bomb Bay would yield, they would light up the the EX radar screen just as nicely.

bt

But the real strategy behind the wall of F-15EX is if the 8 or even 16 of the SU decide to try to challenge the EX, in the back of their mind will be where are those F-35 lurking? Because once the missiles starts to fly (either from an F-35 or F-15) and you have to maneuver, your radar cross section just shot up, even for a stealth.

bt

bikerthai wrote:

Note that if they try to field more than the internal bomb Bay would yield, they would light up the the EX radar screen just as nicely.

bt

If the F-15X is pitted against a LO enemy, though, the enemy would be able to come much closer without being detected, which gives each of his missiles more energy, shorter flight time and a higher probability to kill. A missile launched from far away can be outrun and/or evaded with reasonable chance of success. That's much harder when you're close to each other. A LO aircraft additionally has better chances at confusing the (radar-guided) missile seeker. So a J-20 with 4-6 internal long-range AAM could be equal to an F-15X with 22 AMRAAMs.

mxaxai wrote:

If the F-15X is pitted against a LO enemy, though, the enemy would be able to come much closer without being detected, which gives each of his missiles more energy, shorter flight time and a higher probability to kill

Understood. But before those missile gets to the F-15s, the F-15s would have seen the launch and send off their own salvos

And my point is if they do get close enough to launch a guarantee kill, they would have already been close enough to be visible to the F-35's using g the reflection off the F-15EX radar, as the F-35 will be farther forward.

Long range shot from a stealth in my opinion is a waisted shot as it would still reveal your position at a distance. The point of stealth after all is to get close to get a good shot.

bt

bikerthai wrote:

kitplane01 wrote:

I wonder (maybe) if an equal sized group of Su-35s would continue forward, and I'm pretty sure an equal sized group of J-20s would

Consider a group of 8 F-15EX with 22 x long and medium range AA missiles each, how many missiles can 8 of those other fighters field? Note that if they try to field more than the internal bomb Bay would yield, they would light up the the EX radar screen just as nicely.

bt

It's 8 F-15EX vs 8 J-20s. They start 100 miles apart, each heading towards the other. The rules allow beyond visual range combat. Who do you think will win? Do you think the F-15s even launch at the J-20s before the F-15s go down in flames?

I understand that the J-20s will be visible as long as the bomb bay doors are open, but that's just a few seconds and they close right after launch. I don't think you can hit at quick blip on the radar .. not if it's a maneuvering target. Meanwhile, the F-15s (with RCS greater than a Miami night club) will be visible, trackable, and targetable the whole time.

This is a really easy question. The J-20s survive, the F-15s do not.

kitplane01 wrote:

This is a really easy question. The J-20s survive, the F-15s do not.

Well, I’m convinced.

Am I right to presume you’re a Weapons School grad or have some equivalency? Or even just a private pilot?

kitplane01 wrote:

.. not if it's a maneuvering target.

Once it starts to maneuver, it is no longer a small blip.

And even a small blip wil have a difficult time dodging the 10 missiles launched from each F-15 before they have to evade the on coming missiles.

That does not even include the 2 odd missiles from each lurking F-35 because the J-20s is busy trying to sneak up into the huge F-15 Radar. Remember the bigger the radar the better chance it will pick up the stealth even at a distance.

bt

https://www.defensenews.com/congress/bu ... 22-budget/

The U.S. Air Force wants to send more than 200 aircraft to the boneyard with its fiscal 2022 budget request, freeing up $1.3 billion in savings that it can reinvest in cutting-edge technologies like its sixth-generation fighter and hypersonic weapons.

https://www.defensenews.com/air/2021/05 ... successor/

Hinote spoke with Defense News a day after Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. C.Q. Brown disclosed the service’s upcoming plan to phase out the F-22 and streamline the service’s fighter inventory to four main fighter variants.
Those four aircraft include NGAD, the Lockheed Martin F-35 joint strike fighter, Boeing F-15EX and Lockheed F-16.

It sounds more like they want the EX to replace F-15E and let the NGAD replace F-22 and F-15C as the next air superiority fighter.
So in the end the EX may will be more like a bomb truck carrying long range air to ground missiles

bajs11 wrote:

bomb truck carrying long range air to ground missiles

Bomb, missiles and wingman drone truck.

Like that pilot said, it doesn't need to be stealthy.

bt

Duplicate post.

bt

bikerthai wrote:

kitplane01 wrote:

.. not if it's a maneuvering target.

Once it starts to maneuver, it is no longer a small blip.

And even a small blip wil have a difficult time dodging the 10 missiles launched from each F-15 before they have to evade the on coming missiles.

That does not even include the 2 odd missiles from each lurking F-35 because the J-20s is busy trying to sneak up into the huge F-15 Radar. Remember the bigger the radar the better chance it will pick up the stealth even at a distance.

bt

Question: Is stealth an advantage in BVR combat?

kitplane01 wrote:

Is stealth an advantage in BVR combat?

Sure, but so is a powerful radar.

Stealth is not all encompassing. When facing the F-15EX radar, a stealthy airplane may have a return in of a small bird. Once it begins to maneuver, it will look more like a large bird or even a small aircraft, depending on the orientation.

How far out BVR will the J-20 need to be to be able to evade the F-15EX Radar? Who knows? Of course in stealth mode, the J-20 would be blind to the F-1EX as well. It would be able to know the general direction of the 15 but will not know the range unless it turns on it's own radar. Meanwhile the off-angle radar reflection of the J-20 from the F-15EX. would probably make it visible to the lurking F-35 flying far forward to the F-15s.

bt

bikerthai wrote:

kitplane01 wrote:

Is stealth an advantage in BVR combat?

Sure, but so is a powerful radar.

Stealth is not all encompassing. When facing the F-15EX radar, a stealthy airplane may have a return in of a small bird. Once it begins to maneuver, it will look more like a large bird or even a small aircraft, depending on the orientation.

How far out BVR will the J-20 need to be to be able to evade the F-15EX Radar? Who knows? Of course in stealth mode, the J-20 would be blind to the F-1EX as well. It would be able to know the general direction of the 15 but will not know the range unless it turns on it's own radar. Meanwhile the off-angle radar reflection of the J-20 from the F-15EX. would probably make it visible to the lurking F-35 flying far forward to the F-15s.

bt

I agree with everything you wrote.

As you wrote a J-20 heading right at the F-15 from an appropriate distance is nearly invisible. It can fire a missile in the direction of the F-15s radar, and expect to get hits. The F-15 has no counter to this, except maybe to fire missiles at the brief flash of a radar contact as the bomb bay doors are open, which is not as good.

As you also wrote, the presence of F-35s changes things.

I think we are agreeing.

kitplane01 wrote:

As you also wrote, the presence of F-35s changes things.

The same tactic was used in in the Gulf War. The Wall of Eagles was used to bait the air defense to engage the F-15s. If the air defense lit up, it would have been targeted by other assets.

This time the F-15EX could do the same. However as I have also agreed as soon as there are sufficient F-35s or NGAD, the F-15EX will be relegated to function as a bomb truck, what the F-15E is doing right now and will continue to do for the next 30 years.

Which goes back to your original post. The F-15EX still have a mission.

bt

Revisiting some of this. Speed kills, and the EX has it in spades. Interesting analysis, anyway.

https://www.sandboxx.us/blog/move-over- ... eat-china/

LOL. those old fighters and their dirty flares . . .

bt