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smokeybandit
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Re: US military bases in Afghanistan after drawdown?

Sun Aug 15, 2021 6:31 pm

Phosphorus wrote:

It isn't beyond imagining that it's actually Taliban that wants these talks to succeed, and some form of provisional/handover/coalition government is set up, before some more eager Taliban field commander just waltzes into Kabul, with army dropping their arms and walking home.


That's pretty much what happened today
 
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JetBuddy
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Re: US military bases in Afghanistan after drawdown?

Sun Aug 15, 2021 6:33 pm

Kabul has fallen and the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan is now reality.

US Embassy is overrun. Helicopters are shuttling people to the airport. Thousands of people trying to get onto military aircraft at Kabul airbase.

Saigon 1975
Tehran 1979
Kabul 2021
 
MohawkWeekend
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Re: US military bases in Afghanistan after drawdown?

Sun Aug 15, 2021 11:07 pm

Let's see if we have to fight out way out. Could turn into Mogadishu
 
Agamadi
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Re: US military bases in Afghanistan after drawdown?

Mon Aug 23, 2021 5:50 pm

Phosphorus wrote:
Things on the ground appear to be deteriorating even faster than expected.
In the meantime, Taliban and Afghan government talks in Qatar resumed (they seem to be on/off for some time now).

It isn't beyond imagining that it's actually Taliban that wants these talks to succeed, and some form of provisional/handover/coalition government is set up, before some more eager Taliban field commander just waltzes into Kabul, with army dropping their arms and walking home.

Key difference with Saigon 1975 -- North Vietnam (actually Democratic Republic of Vietnam, AFAIR) did NOT need power transfer. Their modus operandi was that THEY (plus VC) were the legitimate government of whole of Vietnam, and liquidating Saigon regime with no succession was good enough.

Taliban does not have existing statehood, and they MIGHT need some sort of legitimate arrangement for power transfer. Otherwise, they should be prepared for a "government in exile", assets freeze, embassies and other government properties abroad under control of government in exile, other unpleasantries.

A coalition/handover/provisional government might solve that issue. If so, it needs to be agreed upon before Kabul falls to Taliban. This is one of the few strong cards Afghan government actually holds. Incredible, is it not?




I read a lot of literature and sources that are related to the topic of the army and I understand how important it is to serve in the army on time and how much it prepares a person for further adult life. On https://gradesfixer.com/free-essay-examples/the-importance-of-being-on-time-in-the-army/ I recently read some helpful essays on this topic that I want to share with you.

I absolutely agree with you.
 
texl1649
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Re: US military bases in Afghanistan after drawdown?

Mon Aug 23, 2021 6:38 pm

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
889091 wrote:
mxaxai wrote:
It will not be destroyed. The equipment will simply be handed over to the new government formed by the Taliban, and the crews will be given the choice to join them or 'retire'.

After the forced reunification of Vietnam, the Vietnamese air force continued operating plenty of F-5, C-130 and UH-1 that had been given to the South by the US. Afghanistan will be no different.


I assume any US military class radar/equipment will first be downgraded to their equivalent civilian version(s) pre handover?


It’ll be removed


Fact check: False.

Image
 
GalaxyFlyer
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Re: US military bases in Afghanistan after drawdown?

Mon Aug 23, 2021 7:03 pm

Well, we had in past removed any valuable equipment—KSA bases, for example. Apparently, when you forget about your people, equipment is way down the list.
 
texl1649
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Re: US military bases in Afghanistan after drawdown?

Mon Aug 23, 2021 8:07 pm

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
Well, we had in past removed any valuable equipment—KSA bases, for example. Apparently, when you forget about your people, equipment is way down the list.


I totally agree, not trying to be a jerk about it. It's stupefying, really. And the abandonment of Bagram was all planned back on April 24th apparently.

Image

The incompetence, or willful effort to just leave stuff, is unique to my knowledge of history.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=piPzfseZCoM&t=2s

Yes, consider [url]the source, I know, but still[/url]. https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2021/0 ... -captured/

What’s really disturbing is a rumor circulating about some secured warehouses that only highest levels of security clearance US military staff had access to. No one seems to know what was in them. Taliban is in full control of those warehouses now. And those warehouses were full of equipment whatever it was.

He’s trying to confirm but believes that the Taliban also secured US military drone jamming equipment which is disastrous if true.

CCP has people on the ground right now negotiating on any US technology they see of value. Dealing directly with Taliban based on what he told me tonight.
Not sure if that is any help. I’ll keep you posted if anything else pops up of value.


Image

This is not how a serious military retreat is done.
 
johns624
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Re: US military bases in Afghanistan after drawdown?

Mon Aug 23, 2021 8:34 pm

How much of that equipment wasn't "left behind" but was transferred to the Afghan Army over the last 20 year? I find it hard to believe that there were "pallets of dollars" left behind. If there were, I just lost confidence in our grunts...
 
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cjg225
Posts: 2214
Joined: Sun Feb 24, 2013 8:59 pm

Re: US military bases in Afghanistan after drawdown?

Mon Aug 23, 2021 9:24 pm

I really hope that list is wrong. That is incompetence of the highest level if that's legit.
 
petertenthije
Posts: 4331
Joined: Tue Jul 10, 2001 10:00 pm

Re: US military bases in Afghanistan after drawdown?

Mon Aug 23, 2021 10:28 pm

I would like to think that, at the very least, the communications encryption and jamming equipment was bulldozed! Those could do serious damage.

So who will take bets on where the loot will end up? China, Russia and Iran seem likely.
 
JayinKitsap
Posts: 2681
Joined: Sat Nov 26, 2005 9:55 am

Re: US military bases in Afghanistan after drawdown?

Tue Aug 24, 2021 12:05 am

texl1649 wrote:
GalaxyFlyer wrote:
Well, we had in past removed any valuable equipment—KSA bases, for example. Apparently, when you forget about your people, equipment is way down the list.


I totally agree, not trying to be a jerk about it. It's stupefying, really. And the abandonment of Bagram was all planned back on April 24th apparently.

Image

The incompetence, or willful effort to just leave stuff, is unique to my knowledge of history.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=piPzfseZCoM&t=2s

Yes, consider [url]the source, I know, but still[/url]. https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2021/0 ... -captured/

What’s really disturbing is a rumor circulating about some secured warehouses that only highest levels of security clearance US military staff had access to. No one seems to know what was in them. Taliban is in full control of those warehouses now. And those warehouses were full of equipment whatever it was.

He’s trying to confirm but believes that the Taliban also secured US military drone jamming equipment which is disastrous if true.

CCP has people on the ground right now negotiating on any US technology they see of value. Dealing directly with Taliban based on what he told me tonight.
Not sure if that is any help. I’ll keep you posted if anything else pops up of value.


Image

This is not how a serious military retreat is done.


The Pentagon wanted the Afgan Army to take things over, but it is just a tad demoralizing that the information / drones / surveillance systems were turned off like a month ago, it's essential for us to have so it is essential for them - shutting it down is gross incompetence.

The Pentagon probably left a lot of these aircraft for the Afgan Army to use, but turning off the maintenance a month ago is just a Dumbkirk move - owning the air is vital in any retreat.

Keeping the best Air Base fully operational right to the end just might, possibly, be a good idea. If we are totally leaving there would be a need for a good number of armored vehicles as well as fighters to hold the perimeter until the last plane leaves.

Removing / destroying all equipment that has advanced technology is vital. If only a few of the latest devices are captured, reverse engineering happens quick and the enemy has your tech. In WW2, the German's would scuttle their U-boat to protect the ENIGMA machines, we just left warehouses of stuff - absolute crazy.

The only way this could be worse is if there are a lot of casualties, but we are in just the early innings. It's devestating.
 
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cjg225
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Re: US military bases in Afghanistan after drawdown?

Tue Aug 24, 2021 12:06 am

petertenthije wrote:
I would like to think that, at the very least, the communications encryption and jamming equipment was bulldozed! Those could do serious damage.

So who will take bets on where the loot will end up? China, Russia and Iran seem likely.

Probably a lot of it already is to all of the above.
 
889091
Posts: 366
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Re: US military bases in Afghanistan after drawdown?

Tue Aug 24, 2021 1:29 am

petertenthije wrote:
I would like to think that, at the very least, the communications encryption and jamming equipment was bulldozed! Those could do serious damage.

So who will take bets on where the loot will end up? China, Russia and Iran seem likely.


I would think that seeing an unspecified quantity of Semtex and C4 on the list is causing Langley and London massive headaches now....
 
GalaxyFlyer
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Re: US military bases in Afghanistan after drawdown?

Tue Aug 24, 2021 3:26 am

We’ll see that stuff again at a terrorist event near you or me.
 
tu204
Posts: 2276
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Re: US military bases in Afghanistan after drawdown?

Tue Aug 24, 2021 6:22 am

petertenthije wrote:
I would like to think that, at the very least, the communications encryption and jamming equipment was bulldozed! Those could do serious damage.

So who will take bets on where the loot will end up? China, Russia and Iran seem likely.


I can pretty much guarantee you that Russian and Chinese specialists are already all over the loot.
Just keep in mind that China and Russia are one of the few countries that didn't close their embassies and flee the country. So the necessary people are there.
 
marcelh
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Re: US military bases in Afghanistan after drawdown?

Tue Aug 24, 2021 2:36 pm

tu204 wrote:
petertenthije wrote:
I would like to think that, at the very least, the communications encryption and jamming equipment was bulldozed! Those could do serious damage.

So who will take bets on where the loot will end up? China, Russia and Iran seem likely.


I can pretty much guarantee you that Russian and Chinese specialists are already all over the loot.
Just keep in mind that China and Russia are one of the few countries that didn't close their embassies and flee the country. So the necessary people are there.


I would think both Russia and China were already in possession of the equipment way before the USA left the scene.
 
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HAWK21M
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Re: US military bases in Afghanistan after drawdown?

Wed Sep 01, 2021 8:14 am

The Aircraft left behind dont look so sofesticated to create panic though.
 
johns624
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Re: US military bases in Afghanistan after drawdown?

Wed Sep 01, 2021 2:49 pm

HAWK21M wrote:
The Aircraft left behind dont look so sofesticated to create panic though.
They aren't. They're just talking points in domestic partisan politics. There's not scary about M4s, Humvees, Blackhawks, etc.
 
JayinKitsap
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Re: US military bases in Afghanistan after drawdown?

Wed Sep 01, 2021 4:54 pm

Night vision goggles, radios, and security electronics are a big deal. That is unless the US only sent to Afghanistan in the last decade the old stuff, keeping the new gear outside of the country. Well, all of that equipment is being reverse engineered in China and Russia as we speak.

It would have been a good idea to have a radio signal that would 'brick' these devices in an emergency. But that would limit the price of these goods at the Army Surplus stores opening up.
 
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9MMPQ
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Re: US military bases in Afghanistan after drawdown?

Wed Sep 01, 2021 7:06 pm

johns624 wrote:
HAWK21M wrote:
The Aircraft left behind dont look so sofesticated to create panic though.
They aren't. They're just talking points in domestic partisan politics. There's not scary about M4s, Humvees, Blackhawks, etc.


Unless you're with the last hold outs against the Taliban in Panjshir vally where Ahmad Massoud is making a stand. Only accesible by road they are having succes in keeping the Taliban out for now. Now let's say the Taliban gets some of those ANA helicopters in the air. It doesn't seem that Massoud's forces really have anything in the form of air defenses ecxept for some heavier vehicle mounted machine guns. The Taliban could leave the road for what it is and send their forces in by air.

Now i'm sure some trained Afghan personnel have remained in country and will either volunteer their services or be found & forced to assist under threath of death. To the West it's hardly a threat but domestically if you're on the ground with small arms & nothing in the air at all then the Taliban having even just a few air assets could be devastating.

Probably most will dismiss this but hearing all the easy talk of how nobody will be able to use all the equipment left over in Afghanistan without training & maintenance just reminds me of the Iran revolution. F-4s & F-14s & their weapons would quickly become unusable without US support and as trained Iranians left there would be no one left with any knowledge. That worked out very differently. Here we are talking about just some helicopters & Cessna's so it seems very probable something similar is going to happen in Afghanistan eventually.
 
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Phosphorus
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Re: US military bases in Afghanistan after drawdown?

Wed Sep 01, 2021 7:49 pm

9MMPQ wrote:
johns624 wrote:
HAWK21M wrote:
The Aircraft left behind dont look so sofesticated to create panic though.
They aren't. They're just talking points in domestic partisan politics. There's not scary about M4s, Humvees, Blackhawks, etc.


Unless you're with the last hold outs against the Taliban in Panjshir vally where Ahmad Massoud is making a stand. Only accesible by road they are having succes in keeping the Taliban out for now. Now let's say the Taliban gets some of those ANA helicopters in the air. It doesn't seem that Massoud's forces really have anything in the form of air defenses ecxept for some heavier vehicle mounted machine guns. The Taliban could leave the road for what it is and send their forces in by air.

Now i'm sure some trained Afghan personnel have remained in country and will either volunteer their services or be found & forced to assist under threath of death. To the West it's hardly a threat but domestically if you're on the ground with small arms & nothing in the air at all then the Taliban having even just a few air assets could be devastating.

Probably most will dismiss this but hearing all the easy talk of how nobody will be able to use all the equipment left over in Afghanistan without training & maintenance just reminds me of the Iran revolution. F-4s & F-14s & their weapons would quickly become unusable without US support and as trained Iranians left there would be no one left with any knowledge. That worked out very differently. Here we are talking about just some helicopters & Cessna's so it seems very probable something similar is going to happen in Afghanistan eventually.

Indeed. Not to forget some Mi helicopters that ANA had in stock. They were grounded, as paying US taxpayer money to Russian government after 2014 was unthinkable, so spare parts dried out. But it was a known fact: ANA did manage to maintain those with local personnel alone.
Now, with Russia willing to engage with Taliban, what's stopping them from un-grounding Mi helos? Some mechanics surely can be found, and unless the frames are completely thrashed, they can be made airborne again. They were actually built like that -- to be fixable no matter what.
 
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Devilfish
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Re: US military bases in Afghanistan after drawdown?

Wed Sep 01, 2021 7:51 pm

johns624 wrote:
They aren't. They're just talking points in domestic partisan politics. There's not scary about M4s, Humvees, Blackhawks, etc.

Darn...the AFP would have been over the moon to have those. Guess the logistics of transferring such materiel overwhelmed all considerations of saving them. :old:
 
johns624
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Re: US military bases in Afghanistan after drawdown?

Wed Sep 01, 2021 8:14 pm

Devilfish wrote:
johns624 wrote:
They aren't. They're just talking points in domestic partisan politics. There's not scary about M4s, Humvees, Blackhawks, etc.

Darn...the AFP would have been over the moon to have those. Guess the logistics of transferring such materiel overwhelmed all considerations of saving them. :old:
Who is the AFP? Since they got rid of the flags, it's hard to tell where anyone is from.
 
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Devilfish
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Re: US military bases in Afghanistan after drawdown?

Wed Sep 01, 2021 10:08 pm

johns624 wrote:
Who is the AFP? Since they got rid of the flags, it's hard to tell where anyone is from.

Armed Forces of the Philippines...the Air Force operate old C-130s, new Polish made S-70is with a few more due, six new Super Tucanos, and a dozen plus MD-520s remaining -- among others. As the other poster said, nothing sophisticated. The saying "one man's trash is another's treasure" never rang truer.

Image
https://www.janes.com/images/default-so ... 2535e8b3_2

https://www.janes.com/defence-news/news ... hilippines
 
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bikerthai
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Re: US military bases in Afghanistan after drawdown?

Wed Sep 08, 2021 11:45 pm

Speaking of the Philippines, for a while, they were operating some US WWII destroyers that they they obtained from the South Vietnamese Navy after they evacuated Saigon.

I was a young refugee on one of those destroyer for the 7 day journey from Vung Tau to Subic Bay.

Some perspective. America's nation building effort may look like a shamble, buy if you look at it from a different view, things may not be as bleak.

If you look at Vietnam, and much of Latin America, you will see a steady progress toward liberalization and economic progress. Recall back in the 20th century when the news were all about conflict in Latin America?

I propose the nation building in those countries and in Vietnam was build with great help from the tons of money that was sent back by expatriates living in the US. People who have relatives in the US were able to have a stream of personal finance to build their local economy. I see the same for Afghanistan. All these refugees will be a source of income those left behind and then one day you will see Afganistan rise out of the ashes. It may take a long time but in time even religious zealots can be corrupted by money.

bt

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