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Phosphorus wrote:
It isn't beyond imagining that it's actually Taliban that wants these talks to succeed, and some form of provisional/handover/coalition government is set up, before some more eager Taliban field commander just waltzes into Kabul, with army dropping their arms and walking home.
Phosphorus wrote:Things on the ground appear to be deteriorating even faster than expected.
In the meantime, Taliban and Afghan government talks in Qatar resumed (they seem to be on/off for some time now).
It isn't beyond imagining that it's actually Taliban that wants these talks to succeed, and some form of provisional/handover/coalition government is set up, before some more eager Taliban field commander just waltzes into Kabul, with army dropping their arms and walking home.
Key difference with Saigon 1975 -- North Vietnam (actually Democratic Republic of Vietnam, AFAIR) did NOT need power transfer. Their modus operandi was that THEY (plus VC) were the legitimate government of whole of Vietnam, and liquidating Saigon regime with no succession was good enough.
Taliban does not have existing statehood, and they MIGHT need some sort of legitimate arrangement for power transfer. Otherwise, they should be prepared for a "government in exile", assets freeze, embassies and other government properties abroad under control of government in exile, other unpleasantries.
A coalition/handover/provisional government might solve that issue. If so, it needs to be agreed upon before Kabul falls to Taliban. This is one of the few strong cards Afghan government actually holds. Incredible, is it not?
I read a lot of literature and sources that are related to the topic of the army and I understand how important it is to serve in the army on time and how much it prepares a person for further adult life. On https://gradesfixer.com/free-essay-examples/the-importance-of-being-on-time-in-the-army/ I recently read some helpful essays on this topic that I want to share with you.
GalaxyFlyer wrote:889091 wrote:mxaxai wrote:It will not be destroyed. The equipment will simply be handed over to the new government formed by the Taliban, and the crews will be given the choice to join them or 'retire'.
After the forced reunification of Vietnam, the Vietnamese air force continued operating plenty of F-5, C-130 and UH-1 that had been given to the South by the US. Afghanistan will be no different.
I assume any US military class radar/equipment will first be downgraded to their equivalent civilian version(s) pre handover?
It’ll be removed
GalaxyFlyer wrote:Well, we had in past removed any valuable equipment—KSA bases, for example. Apparently, when you forget about your people, equipment is way down the list.
What’s really disturbing is a rumor circulating about some secured warehouses that only highest levels of security clearance US military staff had access to. No one seems to know what was in them. Taliban is in full control of those warehouses now. And those warehouses were full of equipment whatever it was.
He’s trying to confirm but believes that the Taliban also secured US military drone jamming equipment which is disastrous if true.
CCP has people on the ground right now negotiating on any US technology they see of value. Dealing directly with Taliban based on what he told me tonight.
Not sure if that is any help. I’ll keep you posted if anything else pops up of value.
texl1649 wrote:GalaxyFlyer wrote:Well, we had in past removed any valuable equipment—KSA bases, for example. Apparently, when you forget about your people, equipment is way down the list.
I totally agree, not trying to be a jerk about it. It's stupefying, really. And the abandonment of Bagram was all planned back on April 24th apparently.
The incompetence, or willful effort to just leave stuff, is unique to my knowledge of history.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=piPzfseZCoM&t=2s
Yes, consider [url]the source, I know, but still[/url]. https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2021/0 ... -captured/What’s really disturbing is a rumor circulating about some secured warehouses that only highest levels of security clearance US military staff had access to. No one seems to know what was in them. Taliban is in full control of those warehouses now. And those warehouses were full of equipment whatever it was.
He’s trying to confirm but believes that the Taliban also secured US military drone jamming equipment which is disastrous if true.
CCP has people on the ground right now negotiating on any US technology they see of value. Dealing directly with Taliban based on what he told me tonight.
Not sure if that is any help. I’ll keep you posted if anything else pops up of value.
This is not how a serious military retreat is done.
petertenthije wrote:I would like to think that, at the very least, the communications encryption and jamming equipment was bulldozed! Those could do serious damage.
So who will take bets on where the loot will end up? China, Russia and Iran seem likely.
petertenthije wrote:I would like to think that, at the very least, the communications encryption and jamming equipment was bulldozed! Those could do serious damage.
So who will take bets on where the loot will end up? China, Russia and Iran seem likely.
petertenthije wrote:I would like to think that, at the very least, the communications encryption and jamming equipment was bulldozed! Those could do serious damage.
So who will take bets on where the loot will end up? China, Russia and Iran seem likely.
tu204 wrote:petertenthije wrote:I would like to think that, at the very least, the communications encryption and jamming equipment was bulldozed! Those could do serious damage.
So who will take bets on where the loot will end up? China, Russia and Iran seem likely.
I can pretty much guarantee you that Russian and Chinese specialists are already all over the loot.
Just keep in mind that China and Russia are one of the few countries that didn't close their embassies and flee the country. So the necessary people are there.
HAWK21M wrote:They aren't. They're just talking points in domestic partisan politics. There's not scary about M4s, Humvees, Blackhawks, etc.The Aircraft left behind dont look so sofesticated to create panic though.
johns624 wrote:HAWK21M wrote:They aren't. They're just talking points in domestic partisan politics. There's not scary about M4s, Humvees, Blackhawks, etc.The Aircraft left behind dont look so sofesticated to create panic though.
9MMPQ wrote:johns624 wrote:HAWK21M wrote:They aren't. They're just talking points in domestic partisan politics. There's not scary about M4s, Humvees, Blackhawks, etc.The Aircraft left behind dont look so sofesticated to create panic though.
Unless you're with the last hold outs against the Taliban in Panjshir vally where Ahmad Massoud is making a stand. Only accesible by road they are having succes in keeping the Taliban out for now. Now let's say the Taliban gets some of those ANA helicopters in the air. It doesn't seem that Massoud's forces really have anything in the form of air defenses ecxept for some heavier vehicle mounted machine guns. The Taliban could leave the road for what it is and send their forces in by air.
Now i'm sure some trained Afghan personnel have remained in country and will either volunteer their services or be found & forced to assist under threath of death. To the West it's hardly a threat but domestically if you're on the ground with small arms & nothing in the air at all then the Taliban having even just a few air assets could be devastating.
Probably most will dismiss this but hearing all the easy talk of how nobody will be able to use all the equipment left over in Afghanistan without training & maintenance just reminds me of the Iran revolution. F-4s & F-14s & their weapons would quickly become unusable without US support and as trained Iranians left there would be no one left with any knowledge. That worked out very differently. Here we are talking about just some helicopters & Cessna's so it seems very probable something similar is going to happen in Afghanistan eventually.
johns624 wrote:They aren't. They're just talking points in domestic partisan politics. There's not scary about M4s, Humvees, Blackhawks, etc.
Devilfish wrote:Who is the AFP? Since they got rid of the flags, it's hard to tell where anyone is from.johns624 wrote:They aren't. They're just talking points in domestic partisan politics. There's not scary about M4s, Humvees, Blackhawks, etc.
Darn...the AFP would have been over the moon to have those. Guess the logistics of transferring such materiel overwhelmed all considerations of saving them.
johns624 wrote:Who is the AFP? Since they got rid of the flags, it's hard to tell where anyone is from.
