Moderators: richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR
UA857 wrote:With Joe Biden's recent announcement to withdraw US forces in Afghanistan what will become of the remaining bases will they become commercial airports or will they be handed over to the Afghan military? Any thoughts?
texl1649 wrote:No Afghan government will be able to maintain control vs. the Taliban. They will be mortared/shelled and over-run. It will be sad to see their nascent AF destroyed but it is inevitable now.
mxaxai wrote:texl1649 wrote:No Afghan government will be able to maintain control vs. the Taliban. They will be mortared/shelled and over-run. It will be sad to see their nascent AF destroyed but it is inevitable now.
It will not be destroyed. The equipment will simply be handed over to the new government formed by the Taliban, and the crews will be given the choice to join them or 'retire'.
After the forced reunification of Vietnam, the Vietnamese air force continued operating plenty of F-5, C-130 and UH-1 that had been given to the South by the US. Afghanistan will be no different.
889091 wrote:mxaxai wrote:texl1649 wrote:No Afghan government will be able to maintain control vs. the Taliban. They will be mortared/shelled and over-run. It will be sad to see their nascent AF destroyed but it is inevitable now.
It will not be destroyed. The equipment will simply be handed over to the new government formed by the Taliban, and the crews will be given the choice to join them or 'retire'.
After the forced reunification of Vietnam, the Vietnamese air force continued operating plenty of F-5, C-130 and UH-1 that had been given to the South by the US. Afghanistan will be no different.
I assume any US military class radar/equipment will first be downgraded to their equivalent civilian version(s) pre handover?
GalaxyFlyer wrote:It’ll be removed
General Asadullah Kohistani told the BBC that the US left Bagram at 03:00 local time on Friday, and that the Afghan military found out hours later.
Bagram also contains a prison, and there are reportedly up to 5,000 Taliban prisoners left in the facility.
General Kohistani said on Monday that Afghan forces were expecting the Taliban to attack Bagram.
...
The Americans left behind about 3.5 million items, Gen Kohistani said, including tens of thousands of bottles of water, energy drinks and military ready-made meals, known as MREs. They also left behind thousands of civilian vehicles, without keys, and hundreds of armoured vehicles, the Associated Press reported.
...
Within 20 minutes of the US's departure on Friday night the electricity was shut down and the base was plunged into darkness, the AP reported - a signal to looters who smashed through barriers and ransacked the abandoned buildings. Leftover items from the base have ended up in nearby scrap yards and second hand shops.
mxaxai wrote:With the US 'handing over' Bagram air base to the Afghans this week:General Asadullah Kohistani told the BBC that the US left Bagram at 03:00 local time on Friday, and that the Afghan military found out hours later.
Bagram also contains a prison, and there are reportedly up to 5,000 Taliban prisoners left in the facility.
General Kohistani said on Monday that Afghan forces were expecting the Taliban to attack Bagram.
...
The Americans left behind about 3.5 million items, Gen Kohistani said, including tens of thousands of bottles of water, energy drinks and military ready-made meals, known as MREs. They also left behind thousands of civilian vehicles, without keys, and hundreds of armoured vehicles, the Associated Press reported.
...
Within 20 minutes of the US's departure on Friday night the electricity was shut down and the base was plunged into darkness, the AP reported - a signal to looters who smashed through barriers and ransacked the abandoned buildings. Leftover items from the base have ended up in nearby scrap yards and second hand shops.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-57682290
Exactly what everyone predicted. Journalists should start planning for the rooftop evacuation of the US embassy. The photos might win them a prize or two.
smithbs wrote:All other bases I served at have closed down: Shank, Sharana, Lightning. The only one I don't know about is Mazar-e-sharif, but I bet the Europeans are long gone from there by now. RIP to the Norwegian DFAC.
mxaxai wrote:texl1649 wrote:No Afghan government will be able to maintain control vs. the Taliban. They will be mortared/shelled and over-run. It will be sad to see their nascent AF destroyed but it is inevitable now.
It will not be destroyed. The equipment will simply be handed over to the new government formed by the Taliban, and the crews will be given the choice to join them or 'retire'.
After the forced reunification of Vietnam, the Vietnamese air force continued operating plenty of F-5, C-130 and UH-1 that had been given to the South by the US. Afghanistan will be no different.
texl1649 wrote:mxaxai wrote:It will not be destroyed. The equipment will simply be handed over to the new government formed by the Taliban, and the crews will be given the choice to join them or 'retire'.
After the forced reunification of Vietnam, the Vietnamese air force continued operating plenty of F-5, C-130 and UH-1 that had been given to the South by the US. Afghanistan will be no different.
Still feel confident about that?
mxaxai wrote:texl1649 wrote:mxaxai wrote:It will not be destroyed. The equipment will simply be handed over to the new government formed by the Taliban, and the crews will be given the choice to join them or 'retire'.
After the forced reunification of Vietnam, the Vietnamese air force continued operating plenty of F-5, C-130 and UH-1 that had been given to the South by the US. Afghanistan will be no different.
Still feel confident about that?
Well, a lot of equipment is being handed over right now, though perhaps less orderly than some might have hoped. With the exception of some equipment with classified US content, nothing of value is being destroyed. Much of that will end up in Taliban hands sooner or later.
Taliban forces are rapidly advancing through Afghanistan with the help of army defectors and local civilian support, many other members of the Afghan army are fleeing to neighbouring countries (again a striking similarity to Vietnam). Though the Afghan air force is honestly very small to begin with.
MohawkWeekend wrote:I'm not sure why the US isn't hitting the Taliban hard now. Just like after 9/11, they (Tailban and Al Quida) are out in the open. A handful of Special Ops guys marking targets would be able to remind the bad guys to behave.
The bad guys always wanted our ground forces there because they were going to fight us like they did the Russians. Recall what Nixon did to North Vietnam Christmas 1972 when the NVA began to misbehave. The Tailban does not have SAM-2 and SAM-3's.
texl1649 wrote:mxaxai wrote:texl1649 wrote:
Still feel confident about that?
Well, a lot of equipment is being handed over right now, though perhaps less orderly than some might have hoped. With the exception of some equipment with classified US content, nothing of value is being destroyed. Much of that will end up in Taliban hands sooner or later.
Taliban forces are rapidly advancing through Afghanistan with the help of army defectors and local civilian support, many other members of the Afghan army are fleeing to neighbouring countries (again a striking similarity to Vietnam). Though the Afghan air force is honestly very small to begin with.
It seems much of the crews aren't being given any choice at all. Very tragic story.
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-paci ... 021-07-09/
https://nypost.com/2021/07/05/bagram-ai ... ghan-base/
MohawkWeekend wrote:understand from various news reports that supporting the Taliban are numerous foreign fighters. Haven't we seen this movie before?
There are no easy answers - but US airpower would help those remaining Afgan units hold and reconstitute. Otherwise there will be a slaughter and an ISIS state. We could probably get the Chinese and Russians to help as they don't want that either.
MohawkWeekend wrote:I can tell by your answers that you know way more than the average American on this issue.
But why couldn't the Afghan troops we trained prevail if we continued air support? Is it that bad and hopeless? Are we not recreating Iraq's disintegration and the rise of ISIS? Are the foreign fighters going to leave Afghanistan? The Russians hope they are not heading back to Chechnya.
If our allies in Afghanistan fall, I pray that this turnover is more like South Vietnam then what the Khmer Rouge did in Cambodia.
MohawkWeekend wrote:Americans never learn - our luck in nation building ended with the success of W Germany, Japan and South Korea.
Your line of thinking must now be the prevalent one in the US DOD and State Department. Cut our losses and live to fight another day. It was really just one battle in the long war.
America needs to get out the Afgan's who supported us. Perhaps this diaspora will be the continual problem for the Taliban that Cuban American's and Iranian Americans are for their despot home countries.
MohawkWeekend wrote:Americans never learn - our luck in nation building ended with the success of W Germany, Japan and South Korea.
Your line of thinking must now be the prevalent one in the US DOD and State Department. Cut our losses and live to fight another day. It was really just one battle in the long war.
America needs to get out the Afgan's who supported us. Perhaps this diaspora will be the continual problem for the Taliban that Cuban American's and Iranian Americans are for their despot home countries.
Eiszeit wrote:MohawkWeekend wrote:Americans never learn - our luck in nation building ended with the success of W Germany, Japan and South Korea.
Your line of thinking must now be the prevalent one in the US DOD and State Department. Cut our losses and live to fight another day. It was really just one battle in the long war.
America needs to get out the Afgan's who supported us. Perhaps this diaspora will be the continual problem for the Taliban that Cuban American's and Iranian Americans are for their despot home countries.
Calling West Germany or Japan an american success in nation building ist plain wrong, Germany and Japan were nation states long before. The thing achieved was a switch of government model, in Germanys case more like a return and of course disposing of genocidal governments... Leaves Korea, yeah sure South Korea was a shining symbol of democracy for most of its life.
MohawkWeekend wrote:Eiszeit wrote:MohawkWeekend wrote:Americans never learn - our luck in nation building ended with the success of W Germany, Japan and South Korea.
Your line of thinking must now be the prevalent one in the US DOD and State Department. Cut our losses and live to fight another day. It was really just one battle in the long war.
America needs to get out the Afgan's who supported us. Perhaps this diaspora will be the continual problem for the Taliban that Cuban American's and Iranian Americans are for their despot home countries.
Calling West Germany or Japan an american success in nation building ist plain wrong, Germany and Japan were nation states long before. The thing achieved was a switch of government model, in Germanys case more like a return and of course disposing of genocidal governments... Leaves Korea, yeah sure South Korea was a shining symbol of democracy for most of its life.
Perhaps you should speak to a East German who tried to cross the wall. I suggest that you read up on the early post war years and the role the US and the other Allies played in de-Nazifying and strengthening democracy in a country that had very little experience with a republic. Japan was never a democracy and was a feudal state. Run by the military and an Emperor. Suggest you research that one too.
Dont believe me? Literally Google "Did America help Japan and Germany set up democracies after WWII
Eiszeit wrote:Calling West Germany or Japan an american success in nation building ist plain wrong, Germany and Japan were nation states long before. The thing achieved was a switch of government model, in Germanys case more like a return and of course disposing of genocidal governments... Leaves Korea, yeah sure South Korea was a shining symbol of democracy for most of its life.
Eiszeit wrote:And that is the problem with americas "nation building" process, you can't establish democratic structures into a tribal society that lacks any sense of connection to the people even to a village 30 km away. Most rural Afghans couldn't care less who rules because they have not much to lose and even less to gain from it.
MohawkWeekend wrote:
You are also right that America has not been successful in nation building (or nation stabilizing if you like). And America needs to quit trying to do it after spending billions in treasure and human life in Afghanistan, Iraq and Somali. Unlike the peaceful rebuilding like that occurred in Japan and West Germany, the map of the world will be redrawn by as poster Phosphorus put it "probably a river of blood. Again."
MohawkWeekend wrote:You missed the context of my post. It is correct to say that America(and it's allies) did not create the nations of Japan and Germany Of course they were nations prior to their complete destruction during the war. What America and the Allies did post-war was both physically rebuilding and setting up democracies. West Germany thrived (after it was put back together from 3 sectors ruled by France, Great Britain and America) , East Germany did not. Japan's Constitution was written (for the most part) by American scholars selected by General McArthur.
You are also right that America has not been successful in nation building (or nation stabilizing if you like). And America needs to quit trying to do it after spending billions in treasure and human life in Afghanistan, Iraq and Somali. Unlike the peaceful rebuilding like that occurred in Japan and West Germany, the map of the world will be redrawn by as poster Phosphorus put it "probably a river of blood. Again."
FlapOperator wrote:Eiszeit wrote:Calling West Germany or Japan an american success in nation building ist plain wrong, Germany and Japan were nation states long before. The thing achieved was a switch of government model, in Germanys case more like a return and of course disposing of genocidal governments... Leaves Korea, yeah sure South Korea was a shining symbol of democracy for most of its life.
Do you care to compare the track record of the transition to more democratic forms of government from US supported states to say, Soviet ones?
Disparaging the accomplishments of the South Koreans might seem glib to you, but I doubt you live in a capital routinely threatened by its neighbor to be shelled into a parking lot and facing regular commando raids. Of course, the transition to a more representative form of government in the ROK did take until the the 1950s to 1980s, but since then (now well over 30 years ago) even your "most of its life" claim is pretty spurious.
Or, if that isn't enough, let's compare and contrast the relative value of voting in say, Beijing or Vietnam with Taipei or Manila.
Eiszeit wrote:MohawkWeekend wrote:You missed the context of my post. It is correct to say that America(and it's allies) did not create the nations of Japan and Germany Of course they were nations prior to their complete destruction during the war. What America and the Allies did post-war was both physically rebuilding and setting up democracies. West Germany thrived (after it was put back together from 3 sectors ruled by France, Great Britain and America) , East Germany did not. Japan's Constitution was written (for the most part) by American scholars selected by General McArthur.
You are also right that America has not been successful in nation building (or nation stabilizing if you like). And America needs to quit trying to do it after spending billions in treasure and human life in Afghanistan, Iraq and Somali. Unlike the peaceful rebuilding like that occurred in Japan and West Germany, the map of the world will be redrawn by as poster Phosphorus put it "probably a river of blood. Again."
I think we both unserstand that "peaceful rebuilding" can't occure without the total (most of times non peaceful) destruction of the old structures, and I believe that american support for germany and europe, yes eastern europe was offered a participation in the marshal plan before (then nonexistend) germany rightfully so was one of the most rational and humane acts in human existence. My only take is on the term of nation building... That (in the sense of a somehow coherent feeling of bonding) can only develope from within and most of the arab or central asian states of today are to divided to achieve this. So dictators and kings (the same but saudi) are what we have to deal with.
LyleLanley wrote:I hope the Taliban Air Force keeps the boardwalk at Kandahar! It may not all be halal, but it's not bad at all
Eiszeit wrote:
Let's compare this to voting republican in CA... yeah you get it
MohawkWeekend wrote:I say earlier than that - once the 100 or so special forces and Northern Alliance routed the Tailban. Getting Bin Laden at that point wasn't accomplished but you could have kept the hunt for him and his cohorts going with the CIA.
You'd think we'd have a plan to reconstitute the Northern Alliance as a place were these pilots, aircraft, and special forces we trained can go. Saw an interview with the son of the Northern Alliance leader who was assassinated by the Taliban just prior to 9/11. He doesn't want US troops on the ground bit he will be a formidable adversary to the Taliban. Especially if he has airpower.
MohawkWeekend wrote:More airstrikes over the weekend. Does anyone know what packages are being used for these airstrikes and where they may be from?
MohawkWeekend wrote:As soon as I wrote that I thought of the poster from WWII - Loose Lips sink Ships.
It certainly was a tactical blunder by the Tailban.