As per several sources in French (Le Monde, Sud Ouest, Disclose), Egypt signed April 26 a contract to buy 30 more Dassault rafale.
However, signature has not been officially announced.
https://www.sudouest.fr/economie/aeronautique/dassault-l-egypte-va-commander-30-avions-de-combat-rafale-a-la-france-2377538.php

Great, Egypt is a key partner in the Mediterranean, happy to see them working more and more with the French.

Now reported by the Egyptian defence ministry.

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/france-sell-30-rafale-fighter-jets-egypt-investigative-website-2021-05-03/

I'm having a hard time imagining any mission except anti-Israel. Any other mission it would seem the existing Air Force is more than capable.

Control of Red Sea commerce (bad actors vary from Yemen to Iran), borders with Libya and Sudan, I could easily see a need for a quite capable Egyptian Air Force. Frankly, Egypt itself has a lot of problems, but I really doubt they are planning for an offensive (let alone defensive) operation vs. Israel. The Med has been and will be for some time quite an unstable place. At some point the situation in Libya will get better, I am sure, and that is where France/Egypt have a very shared common interest.

You can also add the protection of gas fields off the coast and the tensions with Turkey that come with it

texl1649 wrote:

Control of Red Sea commerce (bad actors vary from Yemen to Iran), borders with Libya and Sudan, I could easily see a need for a quite capable Egyptian Air Force. Frankly, Egypt itself has a lot of problems, but I really doubt they are planning for an offensive (let alone defensive) operation vs. Israel. The Med has been and will be for some time quite an unstable place. At some point the situation in Libya will get better, I am sure, and that is where France/Egypt have a very shared common interest.

All of that seems to be capably handled by the 218 F-16s and 44 Mig-29s and more that the Egyptians already have.

Unless they are going to war with Israel (or Turkey???) I don't see any extra capabilities this allows. And Egypt could probably use the money for significant human development and charity.

kitplane01 wrote:

All of that seems to be capably handled by the 218 F-16s and 44 Mig-29s and more that the Egyptians already have.

You forgot the 24x Su-35s (at least 5 delivered), 19x Mirage 2000 and 24x Rafale they already have prior to this order.

A large portion of those 218 remaining F-16s are over 30 years old, they need to be replaced sooner or later. Constant CAATSA threats makes it unattractive to rely on US aircraft going ahead.

Their F-16 fleet is pretty old and has not been steadily updated, from what I know (I think 20 were newer block 52). Egypt also supposedly has SU-35’s on order but I’m not sure how many. They’ve tried to have a diverse fleet of western/Russian aircraft since Sadat, so again it’s not surprising, and I am not sure that this is an expansion or partial replacement of other types. Again there is no posture/relationship with Israel change that indicates an offensive mission plan for these new orders vs. the past, and relations are frankly pretty good between the two (Egypt has also had to deal with some terrorists of course out toward the Sinai). Almost all of their military fleet is/has been around the northern third of the country.

VSMUT wrote:

kitplane01 wrote:

All of that seems to be capably handled by the 218 F-16s and 44 Mig-29s and more that the Egyptians already have.

You forgot the 24x Su-35s (at least 5 delivered), 19x Mirage 2000 and 24x Rafale they already have prior to this order.

A large portion of those 218 remaining F-16s are over 30 years old, they need to be replaced sooner or later. Constant CAATSA threats makes it unattractive to rely on US aircraft going ahead.

I agree with everything you wrote. But consider this: if 70% of the Air Force disappeared tomorrow, they would be completely capable of handling anything that happened in Libya and Sudan. The only reason to have a powerful Air Force is Israel.

kitplane01 wrote:

I agree with everything you wrote. But consider this: if 70% of the Air Force disappeared tomorrow, they would be completely capable of handling anything that happened in Libya and Sudan. The only reason to have a powerful Air Force is Israel.

And Turkey and Ethiopia. Honestly, if there are three MENA nations whose strategic interests are converging its Egypt, Jordan and Israel.

That’s in addition to the Egyptians controlling one of the most important shipping choke points on the planet.

I’m personally glad they bought the Rafael for a number of reasons. It’s certainly a better buy than Sukhoi for one.

acecrackshot wrote:

kitplane01 wrote:

I agree with everything you wrote. But consider this: if 70% of the Air Force disappeared tomorrow, they would be completely capable of handling anything that happened in Libya and Sudan. The only reason to have a powerful Air Force is Israel.

And Turkey and Ethiopia. Honestly, if there are three MENA nations whose strategic interests are converging its Egypt, Jordan and Israel.

That’s in addition to the Egyptians controlling one of the most important shipping choke points on the planet.

I’m personally glad they bought the Rafael for a number of reasons. It’s certainly a better buy than Sukhoi for one.

They did buy the Sukhoi.

VSMUT wrote:

acecrackshot wrote:

kitplane01 wrote:

I agree with everything you wrote. But consider this: if 70% of the Air Force disappeared tomorrow, they would be completely capable of handling anything that happened in Libya and Sudan. The only reason to have a powerful Air Force is Israel.

And Turkey and Ethiopia. Honestly, if there are three MENA nations whose strategic interests are converging its Egypt, Jordan and Israel.

That’s in addition to the Egyptians controlling one of the most important shipping choke points on the planet.

I’m personally glad they bought the Rafael for a number of reasons. It’s certainly a better buy than Sukhoi for one.

They did buy the Sukhoi.

For the money they’d be better off with more Rafales.

acecrackshot wrote:

kitplane01 wrote:

I agree with everything you wrote. But consider this: if 70% of the Air Force disappeared tomorrow, they would be completely capable of handling anything that happened in Libya and Sudan. The only reason to have a powerful Air Force is Israel.

And Turkey and Ethiopia. Honestly, if there are three MENA nations whose strategic interests are converging its Egypt, Jordan and Israel.

That’s in addition to the Egyptians controlling one of the most important shipping choke points on the planet.

I’m personally glad they bought the Rafael for a number of reasons. It’s certainly a better buy than Sukhoi for one.

Ethiopia has 21 Mig-21's of "unknown status". Egypt has over 200 F-16s. If 70% of Egypt's air force disappeared tomorrow, they would dominate the Ethiopian air force. Also, Ethiopia and Egypt share no border, and have never fought a war.

I *think* the last time Egypt and Turkey fought was 1841. I don't think any two nations have ever had an all-out shooting war over maritime claims alone (at least since 1814, and I don't think that should count).

kitplane01 wrote:

Ethiopia has 21 Mig-21's of "unknown status". Egypt has over 200 F-16s. If 70% of Egypt's air force disappeared tomorrow, they would dominate the Ethiopian air force. Also, Ethiopia and Egypt share no border, and have never fought a war.

I have my doubts about that. Ethiopia has significant experience from the wars with Eritrea in 1998 - 2000. The Ethiopian MiG-21s are of the upgraded Israeli sort. The point of dispute is a dam in Ethiopia, so the Egyptians will have to come a long way to fight, and Egypt doesn't have tankers. It's a 3000 km round trip from the southernmost Egyptian airbase in Aswan. The end result would probably be a bit reminiscent of Nasser's adventure into North Yemen in the 60s.

My own experience of civilian Ethiopian pilots is that they are pretty competent, way better than the average for that part of the world.

kitplane01 wrote:

VSMUT wrote:

kitplane01 wrote:

All of that seems to be capably handled by the 218 F-16s and 44 Mig-29s and more that the Egyptians already have.

You forgot the 24x Su-35s (at least 5 delivered), 19x Mirage 2000 and 24x Rafale they already have prior to this order.

A large portion of those 218 remaining F-16s are over 30 years old, they need to be replaced sooner or later. Constant CAATSA threats makes it unattractive to rely on US aircraft going ahead.

I agree with everything you wrote. But consider this: if 70% of the Air Force disappeared tomorrow, they would be completely capable of handling anything that happened in Libya and Sudan. The only reason to have a powerful Air Force is Israel.

So the last 44 years of history between the two nations did not happen then?
Or is it, Israel (can do no wrong) and Egypt, (A-rab gotta be up to something), despite the two last actually going to war 48 years ago, one side (which included but was not entirely Egypt) had significant material help from a former superpower which itself has not existed since 1991.

The US started having military exercises with Egypt ('Bright Star') 38 years ago, they'd have hardly done that if they thought Egypt was still a threat to Israel. Much less shipped all those piles of arms to them in the intervening years.
Egypt has serious issues alright, like Pakistan it's not so much a country with armed forces, it's more armed forces with a country. As with the SE Asian nation, the military not only effectively runs politics (no 'freedom loving' ally there) but also large swathes of the economy, very corruptly as you would expect.

Maybe that's why they seem to order way more kit than you might think they would never need, although it's true enough about many of those F-16's being aging, delivered in the 1980's.
Their enemies are mainly internal, well throwing out the last government democratically elected there, effectively restoring the old corrupt and brutal regime with a new face in charge might not help that.

The Egyptian leader who signed the historic peace treaty with Israel in 1979 was assassinated two years later, one of those plotting it went on to become Bin Laden's mentor and right hand man, since the death of the latter in 2011 now in charge of Al Queda, though without any power and influence.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Egypt%E2% ... ace_treaty

So the idea that Egypt has any interest in a conflict with Israel is from the early 1970's, it is an unstable part of the world though in their case it's mainly internal.

GDB wrote:

kitplane01 wrote:

VSMUT wrote:

You forgot the 24x Su-35s (at least 5 delivered), 19x Mirage 2000 and 24x Rafale they already have prior to this order.

A large portion of those 218 remaining F-16s are over 30 years old, they need to be replaced sooner or later. Constant CAATSA threats makes it unattractive to rely on US aircraft going ahead.

I agree with everything you wrote. But consider this: if 70% of the Air Force disappeared tomorrow, they would be completely capable of handling anything that happened in Libya and Sudan. The only reason to have a powerful Air Force is Israel.

So the last 44 years of history between the two nations did not happen then?
Or is it, Israel (can do no wrong) and Egypt, (A-rab gotta be up to something), despite the two last actually going to war 48 years ago, one side (which included but was not entirely Egypt) had significant material help from a former superpower which itself has not existed since 1991.

The US started having military exercises with Egypt ('Bright Star') 38 years ago, they'd have hardly done that if they thought Egypt was still a threat to Israel. Much less shipped all those piles of arms to them in the intervening years.
Egypt has serious issues alright, like Pakistan it's not so much a country with armed forces, it's more armed forces with a country. As with the SE Asian nation, the military not only effectively runs politics (no 'freedom loving' ally there) but also large swathes of the economy, very corruptly as you would expect.

Maybe that's why they seem to order way more kit than you might think they would never need, although it's true enough about many of those F-16's being aging, delivered in the 1980's.
Their enemies are mainly internal, well throwing out the last government democratically elected there, effectively restoring the old corrupt and brutal regime with a new face in charge might not help that.

The Egyptian leader who signed the historic peace treaty with Israel in 1979 was assassinated two years later, one of those plotting it went on to become Bin Laden's mentor and right hand man, since the death of the latter in 2011 now in charge of Al Queda, though without any power and influence.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Egypt%E2% ... ace_treaty

So the idea that Egypt has any interest in a conflict with Israel is from the early 1970's, it is an unstable part of the world though in their case it's mainly internal.

If the goal is crowd control and internal dissent, Rafale is a terrible way to spend the money. Hard to think of a less effective way to spend $150m on internal policing than a top of the line fighter.

kitplane01 wrote:

If the goal is crowd control and internal dissent, Rafale is a terrible way to spend the money. Hard to think of a less effective way to spend $150m on internal policing than a top of the line fighter.

Real talk here, but “terrible way to spend the money” is the first sentence you read when you wiki most middle eastern governments.

kitplane01 wrote:

GDB wrote:

kitplane01 wrote:

I agree with everything you wrote. But consider this: if 70% of the Air Force disappeared tomorrow, they would be completely capable of handling anything that happened in Libya and Sudan. The only reason to have a powerful Air Force is Israel.

So the last 44 years of history between the two nations did not happen then?
Or is it, Israel (can do no wrong) and Egypt, (A-rab gotta be up to something), despite the two last actually going to war 48 years ago, one side (which included but was not entirely Egypt) had significant material help from a former superpower which itself has not existed since 1991.

The US started having military exercises with Egypt ('Bright Star') 38 years ago, they'd have hardly done that if they thought Egypt was still a threat to Israel. Much less shipped all those piles of arms to them in the intervening years.
Egypt has serious issues alright, like Pakistan it's not so much a country with armed forces, it's more armed forces with a country. As with the SE Asian nation, the military not only effectively runs politics (no 'freedom loving' ally there) but also large swathes of the economy, very corruptly as you would expect.

Maybe that's why they seem to order way more kit than you might think they would never need, although it's true enough about many of those F-16's being aging, delivered in the 1980's.
Their enemies are mainly internal, well throwing out the last government democratically elected there, effectively restoring the old corrupt and brutal regime with a new face in charge might not help that.

The Egyptian leader who signed the historic peace treaty with Israel in 1979 was assassinated two years later, one of those plotting it went on to become Bin Laden's mentor and right hand man, since the death of the latter in 2011 now in charge of Al Queda, though without any power and influence.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Egypt%E2% ... ace_treaty

So the idea that Egypt has any interest in a conflict with Israel is from the early 1970's, it is an unstable part of the world though in their case it's mainly internal.

If the goal is crowd control and internal dissent, Rafale is a terrible way to spend the money. Hard to think of a less effective way to spend $150m on internal policing than a top of the line fighter.

You are missing the point, what has what they actually need got to do with it? Who there is going to object? You can bet plenty of the regimes member's get a kick back or some kind of bribery, not picking on this aircraft, this will go for any arms deal, including no doubt piles of 'internal security' equipment and just about everything else too.
Remember, they run the country and much of the economy. Lining their own pockets, using the national coffers as a personal bank.
And are not shy of enforcing that point, it's effectively a military dictatorship.

Exercise Bright Star;
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Bright_Star

When they started, those of us around then can remember some almost surreal sights considering in the early 80's the Cold War was at a renewed height, this one I recall from the cover of an aviation magazine at the time;
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation ... t-1982.jpg

Away from the air, the situation on the ground;
https://www.hrw.org/world-report/2021/c ... ters/egypt

kitplane01 wrote:

If the goal is crowd control and internal dissent, Rafale is a terrible way to spend the money. Hard to think of a less effective way to spend $150m on internal policing than a top of the line fighter.

What's one thing military dictatorships have in common? They like to arm themselves to the teeth because they control the purse strings.

GDB wrote:

kitplane01 wrote:

GDB wrote:

So the last 44 years of history between the two nations did not happen then?
Or is it, Israel (can do no wrong) and Egypt, (A-rab gotta be up to something), despite the two last actually going to war 48 years ago, one side (which included but was not entirely Egypt) had significant material help from a former superpower which itself has not existed since 1991.

The US started having military exercises with Egypt ('Bright Star') 38 years ago, they'd have hardly done that if they thought Egypt was still a threat to Israel. Much less shipped all those piles of arms to them in the intervening years.
Egypt has serious issues alright, like Pakistan it's not so much a country with armed forces, it's more armed forces with a country. As with the SE Asian nation, the military not only effectively runs politics (no 'freedom loving' ally there) but also large swathes of the economy, very corruptly as you would expect.

Maybe that's why they seem to order way more kit than you might think they would never need, although it's true enough about many of those F-16's being aging, delivered in the 1980's.
Their enemies are mainly internal, well throwing out the last government democratically elected there, effectively restoring the old corrupt and brutal regime with a new face in charge might not help that.

The Egyptian leader who signed the historic peace treaty with Israel in 1979 was assassinated two years later, one of those plotting it went on to become Bin Laden's mentor and right hand man, since the death of the latter in 2011 now in charge of Al Queda, though without any power and influence.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Egypt%E2% ... ace_treaty

So the idea that Egypt has any interest in a conflict with Israel is from the early 1970's, it is an unstable part of the world though in their case it's mainly internal.

If the goal is crowd control and internal dissent, Rafale is a terrible way to spend the money. Hard to think of a less effective way to spend $150m on internal policing than a top of the line fighter.

You are missing the point, what has what they actually need got to do with it? Who there is going to object? You can bet plenty of the regimes member's get a kick back or some kind of bribery, not picking on this aircraft, this will go for any arms deal, including no doubt piles of 'internal security' equipment and just about everything else too.
Remember, they run the country and much of the economy. Lining their own pockets, using the national coffers as a personal bank.
And are not shy of enforcing that point, it's effectively a military dictatorship.

Exercise Bright Star;
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Bright_Star

When they started, those of us around then can remember some almost surreal sights considering in the early 80's the Cold War was at a renewed height, this one I recall from the cover of an aviation magazine at the time;
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation ... t-1982.jpg

Away from the air, the situation on the ground;
https://www.hrw.org/world-report/2021/c ... ters/egypt

I don't think I missed the point at all. You wrote that a significant reason for Egypt to buy Rafales was internal policing. And I disagree.

La Tribune is reporting that the sale of Rafales to Egypt may be part of larger arms package being sold to Egypt, which also includes a pair of MRTT's, an Airbus observation satellite, and air defence radars, for a total package worth 5.4 billion euros:

(In French):

https://www.latribune.fr/entreprises-fi ... 84070.html

kitplane01 wrote:

GDB wrote:

kitplane01 wrote:

If the goal is crowd control and internal dissent, Rafale is a terrible way to spend the money. Hard to think of a less effective way to spend $150m on internal policing than a top of the line fighter.

You are missing the point, what has what they actually need got to do with it? Who there is going to object? You can bet plenty of the regimes member's get a kick back or some kind of bribery, not picking on this aircraft, this will go for any arms deal, including no doubt piles of 'internal security' equipment and just about everything else too.
Remember, they run the country and much of the economy. Lining their own pockets, using the national coffers as a personal bank.
And are not shy of enforcing that point, it's effectively a military dictatorship.

Exercise Bright Star;
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Bright_Star

When they started, those of us around then can remember some almost surreal sights considering in the early 80's the Cold War was at a renewed height, this one I recall from the cover of an aviation magazine at the time;
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation ... t-1982.jpg

Away from the air, the situation on the ground;
https://www.hrw.org/world-report/2021/c ... ters/egypt

I don't think I missed the point at all. You wrote that a significant reason for Egypt to buy Rafales was internal policing. And I disagree.

I did NOT say they were for 'internal policing', (which comes with being a corrupt military dictatorship and really means what the HRW link I included says, you might try reading it), you don't seem to get that Egypt is not run like Western nations, including when it comes to arms buys.
A bit of understanding of the history of the country might help too, since you still thought they were hostile to Israel over 40 years after the the fact of that ending. Brokered by the US in what was likely their last non destructive policy move in that region.

GDB wrote:

kitplane01 wrote:

GDB wrote:

You are missing the point, what has what they actually need got to do with it? Who there is going to object? You can bet plenty of the regimes member's get a kick back or some kind of bribery, not picking on this aircraft, this will go for any arms deal, including no doubt piles of 'internal security' equipment and just about everything else too.
Remember, they run the country and much of the economy. Lining their own pockets, using the national coffers as a personal bank.
And are not shy of enforcing that point, it's effectively a military dictatorship.

Exercise Bright Star;
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Bright_Star

When they started, those of us around then can remember some almost surreal sights considering in the early 80's the Cold War was at a renewed height, this one I recall from the cover of an aviation magazine at the time;
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation ... t-1982.jpg

Away from the air, the situation on the ground;
https://www.hrw.org/world-report/2021/c ... ters/egypt

I don't think I missed the point at all. You wrote that a significant reason for Egypt to buy Rafales was internal policing. And I disagree.

I did NOT say they were for 'internal policing', (which comes with being a corrupt military dictatorship and really means what the HRW link I included says, you might try reading it), you don't seem to get that Egypt is not run like Western nations, including when it comes to arms buys.
A bit of understanding of the history of the country might help too, since you still thought they were hostile to Israel over 40 years after the the fact of that ending. Brokered by the US in what was likely their last non destructive policy move in that region.

While discussing buying Rafales you wrote "Their enemies are mainly internal,... it is an unstable part of the world though in their case it's mainly internal.".