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744SPX
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Re: New Russian Fighter Jet

Fri Aug 06, 2021 2:27 am

What I want to know is how it is that the Russian's had the AL-41F (Izdeliye 20) a working 5th generation turbofan with 40,000 lbs of thrust, supercruise capability and an 11 to 1 thrust to weight ratio, tested as early as 1982 and installed/flown on the MiG 1.44 in the mid-90's and yet they can't get an engine with the exact same specifications (in the form of the Izdeliye 30, albeit a different design-why?) ready for use on the SU-57 until 2023 at the earliest. That's worse than 30+ years of technological stagnancy, its 30+ years of technological reversal. How is that even possible?

Also, its not like the AL-41F1 was a sham- its performance was verified during MiG-25 testing.
Same manufacturer for both engines too. Doesn't add up.
 
RJMAZ
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Re: New Russian Fighter Jet

Fri Aug 06, 2021 3:12 am

744SPX wrote:
That's worse than 30+ years of technological stagnancy, its 30+ years of technological reversal. How is that even possible?

Also, its not like the AL-41F1 was a sham- its performance was verified during MiG-25 testing.
Same manufacturer for both engines too. Doesn't add up.

Because the thrust figures back then were highly exaggerated. The engine life would be measured in dozens of hours instead of thousands of hours like western engines fitting to the F-15C, F/A-18A.

Only 30 years later are they hitting that thrust target and but reliability is still measured in hundred of hours. The western engines are highly derated to get that long durability. Western engine manufacturers could easily extract 20% more thrust if the operators were happy with swapping engines at similar intervals to the Russians.
 
ThePointblank
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Re: New Russian Fighter Jet

Fri Aug 06, 2021 8:43 am

RJMAZ wrote:
744SPX wrote:
That's worse than 30+ years of technological stagnancy, its 30+ years of technological reversal. How is that even possible?

Also, its not like the AL-41F1 was a sham- its performance was verified during MiG-25 testing.
Same manufacturer for both engines too. Doesn't add up.

Because the thrust figures back then were highly exaggerated. The engine life would be measured in dozens of hours instead of thousands of hours like western engines fitting to the F-15C, F/A-18A.

Only 30 years later are they hitting that thrust target and but reliability is still measured in hundred of hours. The western engines are highly derated to get that long durability. Western engine manufacturers could easily extract 20% more thrust if the operators were happy with swapping engines at similar intervals to the Russians.

Pretty much from what I've heard.

For Poland, their F-16's require significantly less maintenance than the MiG-29 fleet. One example was the engines; by the time a F-16 needs an engine overhaul, the MiG-29 would need 3 overhauls and an engine replacement.

After 30 years of service, a F-16 would need two engine overhauls in that time period, but a MiG-29 would need 18 overhauls plus 6 new engines (assuming same amount of flight hours).

Image

http://www.polishcimeeac.pl/Papers3/2014/002.pdf
 
RJMAZ
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Re: New Russian Fighter Jet

Fri Aug 06, 2021 1:21 pm

Athletics is a good comparison. The US jet engines are running the 400 meter sprint in world record time of 43 seconds. The Russian engines are running the exact same speed but only over 100m which works out to be 10.75 seconds. Disabled people in the paralympics can run that 100 meter time.
 
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keesje
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Re: New Russian Fighter Jet

Fri Aug 06, 2021 4:58 pm

Often we see Russian aircraft being dismissed, as a habit. Until funding is needed for local new programs. Then an urgent re$pon$e is required to face this serious threat. Always works.
 
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LyleLanley
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Re: New Russian Fighter Jet

Fri Aug 06, 2021 5:29 pm

keesje wrote:
Often we see Russian aircraft being dismissed, as a habit. Until funding is needed for local new programs. Then an urgent re$pon$e is required to face this serious threat. Always works.


Ah, yes. I remember well all the defense spending meant to catch up to Russian equipment reliability metrics over the decades. Like how the MiG-25’s impressively reliable engines and avionics spurred the F-15, or the T-72’s incredible MTBO led to the M-1 tank.

Makes sense if you don’t think about it.
 
744SPX
Posts: 618
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Re: New Russian Fighter Jet

Fri Aug 06, 2021 7:03 pm

Admittedly, I totally forgot about the engine service life part of the equation... Still though, you'd think that in 30+ years they could take an F119 equivalent spec engine (AL-41F1) and get it to last as long as the YF119 could last in 1990.
 
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bikerthai
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Re: New Russian Fighter Jet

Fri Aug 06, 2021 7:18 pm

744SPX wrote:
F119 equivalent spec engine (AL-41F1) and get it to last as long as


Getting the equivalent spec is easy. It only takes a few spies. Setting up an equivalent manufacturing infrastructure and have your workers follow the processes consistently is much harder.


bt
 
mxaxai
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Re: New Russian Fighter Jet

Fri Aug 06, 2021 9:48 pm

LyleLanley wrote:
Ah, yes. I remember well all the defense spending meant to catch up to Russian equipment reliability metrics over the decades.

A little less hubris would be appropriate. Underestimation of foreign equipment and training has repeatedly bitten US forces and their allies in the ass.
 
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LyleLanley
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Re: New Russian Fighter Jet

Sat Aug 07, 2021 3:57 am

mxaxai wrote:
LyleLanley wrote:
Ah, yes. I remember well all the defense spending meant to catch up to Russian equipment reliability metrics over the decades.

A little less hubris would be appropriate. Underestimation of foreign equipment and training has repeatedly bitten US forces and their allies in the ass.


I agree, but I think you’re missing the point I was trying to make: the poor reliability and maintainability of Russian/Soviet jet engines is well documented, and when other posters had mentioned this Keesje launched into yet another diatribe about US defense policy and spending but on an unrelated tangent. I was merely trying to write that the U.S.’s “bogeyman” approach of scare-mongering new Russian/Soviet equipment had nothing to do with their reliability. E.g. the Mig-25’s brute performance freaked western intelligence services out. Not the jet’s incredibly poor maintenance stats. Nor did they know at the time that flight >Mach 3.0 shelled out the engines.
 
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bikerthai
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Re: New Russian Fighter Jet

Sat Aug 07, 2021 4:41 am

LyleLanley wrote:
I was merely trying to write that the U.S.’s “bogeyman” approach of scare-mongering new Russian/Soviet equipment had nothing to do with their reliability.


And so it's happening again with pundits using the near peer conflict with China argument to bad mouth the F-15EX buy and insists that stealth is the only way to go.

We don't even know if the new Chinese fighter is that stealthy or will the Chinese will mass produce enough of them and be able to reliability keep them enough flying to take advantage of numerical superiority.

But I guess better safe than sorry?

bt
 
brindabella
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Re: New Russian Fighter Jet

Tue Aug 10, 2021 1:17 pm

bikerthai wrote:
LyleLanley wrote:
I was merely trying to write that the U.S.’s “bogeyman” approach of scare-mongering new Russian/Soviet equipment had nothing to do with their reliability.


And so it's happening again with pundits using the near peer conflict with China argument to bad mouth the F-15EX buy and insists that stealth is the only way to go.

We don't even know if the new Chinese fighter is that stealthy or will the Chinese will mass produce enough of them and be able to reliability keep them enough flying to take advantage of numerical superiority.

But I guess better safe than sorry?

bt


The big question to me (the 800 lb gorilla in the room :wideeyed: ) is:

"The USAF is running=away from the F35 due to the exorbitant cost of keeping a stealthy fleet in the air"..
(My observation).

Why would this not also apply to the Russians/Chinese/everybody else.?

cheers
 
brindabella
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Re: New Russian Fighter Jet

Tue Aug 10, 2021 1:20 pm

OTOH, because the Americans seem to have hit this problem first; then they may also be the first to solve it.\

\cheers
 
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bikerthai
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Re: New Russian Fighter Jet

Tue Aug 10, 2021 2:53 pm

brindabella wrote:
OTOH, because the Americans seem to have hit this problem first; then they may also be the first to solve it.\

\cheers


The other problem that the US seems to have hit first as a counter balance to high price stealth is the development of low cost wingman drones. The US/RAAF and allies has two contenders on a back bone of a sophisticated/robust com network developed over decades of operation in the Mid-East.

Not sure if Russia or China has a comparable network.

This carrot of wing man drones supposedly offered to the Finnish AF is will be a draw to those countries who is willing to risk the teething issues just to be at the forefront of this emerging tech. Similar to how the RAAF worked through all the E-7 issues to now hold a highly coveted fleet of AEW&C assets.

bt
 
RJMAZ
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Re: New Russian Fighter Jet

Wed Aug 11, 2021 1:21 pm

brindabella wrote:
The big question to me (the 800 lb gorilla in the room :wideeyed: ) is:

"The USAF is running=away from the F35 due to the exorbitant cost of keeping a stealthy fleet in the air"..
(My observation).

This is absolutely false. The F-35 is cheaper per hour than nearly all 4th gen aircraft based on the public lifecycle costs from the Swiss competition. The F-35 was unbelievably low cost in the Swiss comp and some people still can't comprehend how It is so low.

You are looking at out of date costs or news articles. You can't compare the F-35 costs when the aircraft was in low rate production and the maintenance crews were being trained to a mature system.

The news of the USAF looking at a cleansheet 4.5 gen aircraft has nothing to do with the F-35 being too expensive. The USAF suddenly realised that using the latest manufacturing technology a non stealthy aircraft can now be built so cheaply and have an operating cost that is lower than what anyone thought was possible. Despite there soon to be 180 F-35 being built per year it will still take 15 years to replace every last F-16 and A-10 in the USAF.

The USAF will most likely start retiring perfectly flyable F-16's 10 years earlier than expected being replaced by an aircraft with half the hourly operating cost. The new 4.5gen aircraft effectively costs nothing due to the lower operating cost. The F-35 will still get purchased as fast as possible. I expect this cheap fighter will simply be a single seat version of the T-7 with an AESA radar.
 
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keesje
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Re: New Russian Fighter Jet

Wed Aug 11, 2021 7:09 pm

RJMAZ wrote:
brindabella wrote:
The big question to me (the 800 lb gorilla in the room :wideeyed: ) is:

"The USAF is running=away from the F35 due to the exorbitant cost of keeping a stealthy fleet in the air"..
(My observation).

This is absolutely false. The F-35 is cheaper per hour than nearly all 4th gen aircraft based on the public lifecycle costs from the Swiss competition. The F-35 was unbelievably low cost in the Swiss comp and some people still can't comprehend how It is so low.

You are looking at out of date costs or news articles. You can't compare the F-35 costs when the aircraft was in low rate production and the maintenance crews were being trained to a mature system.

The news of the USAF looking at a cleansheet 4.5 gen aircraft has nothing to do with the F-35 being too expensive. The USAF suddenly realised that using the latest manufacturing technology a non stealthy aircraft can now be built so cheaply and have an operating cost that is lower than what anyone thought was possible. Despite there soon to be 180 F-35 being built per year it will still take 15 years to replace every last F-16 and A-10 in the USAF.

The USAF will most likely start retiring perfectly flyable F-16's 10 years earlier than expected being replaced by an aircraft with half the hourly operating cost. The new 4.5gen aircraft effectively costs nothing due to the lower operating cost. The F-35 will still get purchased as fast as possible. I expect this cheap fighter will simply be a single seat version of the T-7 with an AESA radar.


RJMAZ, the mods want us to provide sources, not opinions, preferences posted as facts.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.statis ... -aircraft/
 
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LyleLanley
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Re: New Russian Fighter Jet

Wed Aug 11, 2021 8:17 pm

keesje wrote:
RJMAZ, the mods want us to provide sources, not opinions, preferences posted as facts.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.statis ... -aircraft/


Thanks for the laugh. I needed that
 
RJMAZ
Posts: 2507
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Re: New Russian Fighter Jet

Thu Aug 12, 2021 12:16 am

keesje wrote:
RJMAZ, the mods want us to provide sources, not opinions, preferences posted as facts.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.statis ... -aircraft/

Thanks for the laugh. You just posted 2018 operating costs :lol:

You just did exactly what I said in my post. I repeat.

RJMAZ wrote:
You are looking at out of date costs or news articles. You can't compare the F-35 costs when the aircraft was in low rate production and the maintenance crews were being trained to a mature system.


The low cost of the F-35 provided to the swiss has already come up in multiple posts. There is no need to keep repeating links over and over but here it is anyway.

F-35 Nabs $6.5B Swiss Deal; ‘Lowest Operating Costs’

The F-35 beat out its competitors — Boeing’s F/A-18; French firm Dassault’s Rafale; and German-base Airbus’s Eurofighter — on both upfront procurement costs, and somewhat surprisingly, operating costs, the Federal Council explained in a statement.


https://breakingdefense.com/2021/06/f-3 ... ing-costs/

Now please stop posting false information. The mods should definitely get involved when people clearly provide out of date sources to mislead readers.
 
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keesje
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Re: New Russian Fighter Jet

Thu Aug 12, 2021 8:16 am

No RJMAZ, LanLanley, it seems you are the ones that only read what you want to read and believe what confirms your pre occupations. :worried:

https://www.nationaldefensemagazine.org ... -for-f-35a

https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/a ... cna1259781

https://www.defensenews.com/air/2021/07 ... ity-cliff/
 
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LyleLanley
Posts: 485
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Re: New Russian Fighter Jet

Thu Aug 12, 2021 7:06 pm

keesje wrote:
No RJMAZ, LanLanley, it seems you are the ones that only read what you want to read and believe what confirms your pre occupations. :worried:


Praise from Caesar. In any case, it’s too bad the Swiss apparently can’t read, if I’m following your logic train along its tracks. If so, they apparently wouldn’t have picked the F-35.

Minor point: I believe the words you meant to use are preconceived notion. I’m not exactly preoccupied with F-35 stuff.
 
RJMAZ
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Re: New Russian Fighter Jet

Fri Aug 13, 2021 1:49 am

The Swiss competition is the first competition where all prices were made public. This allows the cost argument to be settled once and for all. The F-35 is cheaper to buy and cheaper to operate compared to Super Hornet, Eurofighter and Rafale.

If someone says the F-35 still costs too much that is like saying McDonald's burgers are too expensive when they are already the cheapest.

The USAF clearly wants it's burgers as cheap as possible. There is nothing wrong with that. The US needs to negotiate a future sustainment contract for the F-35. The USAF saying they could look for cheaper fighters is simply part of negotiating a lower contract price. Lockheed will cut some of its fat profit margin down a bit. This is common sense.

2018 US cost figures posted previously show the Super Hornet is cheaper than the F-15 eagle. These are mature systems and a fair comparison. The Swiss show the F-35 is cheaper than the Super Hornet. So common sense shows the F-35 is also cheaper than the F-15 eagle.

The A-10 is listed as having approximately three quarters of the operating costs of the Super Hornet. So if the F-35 is cheaper than the Super Hornet it can't be much more expensive than the A-10. Excellent value.

Of course the F-16 is just around two third of the Super Hornet price but the F-35 was never intended to match the F-16 cost.

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