Boeing P-8 Poseidon News, Production and Delivery Thread

UA947 · Mon Dec 13, 2021 3:40 pm

bikerthai wrote:
Well, if they link to the photo of the original derailment as part of their analysis, then one would have to assume that it was the derailment that they were referring to. If not, then it is sloppy journalism.

Seems pretty clear that they meant what they wrote.

What we think now is that this frame with line number 8219 was maybe one of three that was seriously damaged while transported by a train. That train crashed while on its way to Renton, after which three 737 fuselages rolled down a slope into a river. The fuselage of 8219 was assumed to be scrapped but possibly now fake used on another fuselage with BuNo 169564.

And yes if there was another derailnent that would have involved another frame loss, you would have been able to find it on the internet. The Seattle Times would have been on top of that as well.

By the way, the 8219 frame loss was not due to a derailment. It was some transportation mishap that was not revealed to the public. If that article can find out the detail to happened to that frame, then they would have my congratulation.

bt

How possible is it that the often discussed here original line number 8219 was on the same transport as line number 8165. Because the latter just rolled out of the FAL but does look like it has been through some serious "adventures".

https://twitter.com/AeroimagesChris/status/1470195070947127299/photo/1

RobK · Mon Dec 13, 2021 3:49 pm

UA947 wrote:
How possible is it that the often discussed here original line number 8219 was on the same transport as line number 8165.

None. 8219 would have transported mid 2020. 8165 just a month or two ago.

bikerthai · Mon Dec 13, 2021 5:01 pm

Regard to the original ship date, vs the actual arrival date, if you look at the line numbers, you can see that the difference is about 54 frames. Even at the height of 737 production, before the MAX slow down, the difference would mean over one month apart in delivery to Renton.

Now given the difference in flow time between a military frame and a commercial frame, you are now in the realm of unlikely but still possible.

Another mystery!

bt

bikerthai · Mon Dec 13, 2021 5:06 pm

WoodysAeroimag wrote:
P8 Line Number 8219 has finally made it into final assembly at RNT. It will be off the line right after the next Norwegian P8.

Line 8219

RobK wrote:
UA947 wrote:
How possible is it that the often discussed here original line number 8219 was on the same transport as line number 8165.

None. 8219 would have transported mid 2020. 8165 just a month or two ago.

8219 finally made it to Renton a month ago as well.

UA947 has a point!

bt

SYD330 · Sat Dec 18, 2021 9:56 am

Will Taiwan be able to get some of these P-8's?

SeamanBeaumont · Sat Dec 18, 2021 11:28 am

SYD330 wrote:
Will Taiwan be able to get some of these P-8's?

P-8s aren't exactly a priority for Taiwan right now. Better to spend the money on upgrading the F-16s and buying more munitions. Taiwan's problem isn't subs and long range maritime patrol, it is surviving the cruise missile barrage and follow on landing long enough for the USN to show up...

bikerthai · Sat Dec 18, 2021 12:58 pm

If you look at the arc of countries from Korea to India, the remaining countries who may benefit from the P-8A are Singapore, Malaysia, and Indonesia.

None of the three really need the high end capabilities.

The only potential customers left would be Canada, and maybe one or two of the Gulf states.

Now that Germany became a customer, there is a better chance that NATO will buy some to be shared among the countries along the Med.

bt

P.S. If Canada and one Gulf state and NATO all buy in, you'll have a ring of P-8A around China and Russia. With the eastern gap being filled by the P-1 :eyepopping:

Mortyman · Mon Dec 20, 2021 7:53 am

Is there any chance that France will buy P-8 Poseidons ?

bikerthai · Mon Dec 20, 2021 1:17 pm

Mortyman wrote:
Is there any chance that France will buy P-8 Poseidons ?

If France do not need to replace their current assets until 2035, then the chances are slim.

Even if the all the potential customers mentioned above order there allotments, the production run would end between 2028 and 2030.

bt

Mortyman · Mon Dec 20, 2021 2:25 pm

bikerthai wrote:
Mortyman wrote:
Is there any chance that France will buy P-8 Poseidons ?

If France do not need to replace their current assets until 2035, then the chances are slim.

Even if the all the potential customers mentioned above order there allotments, the production run would end between 2028 and 2030.

bt

But what alternatives will they have down the line if they wait too long ?

bikerthai · Mon Dec 20, 2021 2:51 pm

There will always be alternatives. It would just be more expensive .

If they stay with their current plan, they would have to develop an A320 NEO MMA.

In ten years however, there may be UAV alternatives combined with a smaller platform that would meet France's needs.

All the current P-8A buyers have a current need and does not have funds for fulL scale development of another platform.

bt

FlapOperator · Mon Dec 20, 2021 2:55 pm

Honestly, as long as you remember the French military industrial complex is designed to preserve the A) French industrial base and B) serve as a jobs program the French will do anything to continue that. If there is some industrial offset or other mechanism that preserves A and B, then the French will would buy anything. If it doesn't, the French government is willing to accept (and the French military will be forced to accept) an 80%/70% or even 50% solution.

jeffrey0032j · Tue Dec 21, 2021 5:56 pm

SYD330 wrote:
Will Taiwan be able to get some of these P-8's?

Not really especially when the USN can fly P8As into Taiwan and base them there if they need to.

WoodysAeroimag · Sat Dec 25, 2021 3:01 am

9065 170013 737-8FV @USNavy P8 rolled out.

FlapOperator · Sat Dec 25, 2021 4:03 am

jeffrey0032j wrote:
SYD330 wrote:
Will Taiwan be able to get some of these P-8's?

Not really especially when the USN can fly P8As into Taiwan and base them there if they need to.

That's not the same thing.

Short answer is, can the Taiwanese make an FMS case within their budget against a demonstrated need? Then likely the answer is yes.

Will they? Probably not.

bikerthai · Wed Jan 12, 2022 12:36 pm

The UK has received its 9th and final P-8A frames contracted.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.janes. ... Fp1cVMwPQ2

The capability gap has now been closed.

bt

bikerthai · Tue Feb 01, 2022 9:44 pm

ROK first P-8A have been painted.

Sorry no photos for now. Woody where are you?

bt

WoodysAeroimag · Thu Feb 03, 2022 3:53 am

bikerthai wrote:
ROK first P-8A have been painted.

Sorry no photos for now. Woody where are you?

bt

The 1st P8 for for the Republic of Korea Navy is now painted on the flight line.

9142 66448 N771DS 230921 737-8FV Republic of Korea Navy

bikerthai · Thu Feb 03, 2022 12:56 pm

Cool,

With deference to The Saint, I like this scheme the most so far.

by

WoodysAeroimag · Sat Feb 19, 2022 6:01 am

9180 170014 737-8FV US Navy - R/O

Mortyman · Thu Feb 24, 2022 10:55 pm

First Royal Norwegian air force P-8 has arrived in Norway.

bikerthai · Fri Feb 25, 2022 1:33 pm

https://www.overtdefense.com/2022/02/24 ... ives-home/

Some more on the P-8A for Norway info here.

bt

N328KF · Fri Feb 25, 2022 11:12 pm

Mortyman wrote:
First Royal Norwegian air force P-8 has arrived in Norway.

Nothing like putting it to use immediately!

WoodysAeroimag · Thu Mar 03, 2022 5:26 am

@RoyalAirForce @BoeingDefense E-7A Wedgetail AEW Mk1 (737-700) - C/N 66840 / LN 9103 rolled out of final assembly.

bikerthai · Fri Mar 04, 2022 12:35 pm

UK P-8A flying in the Med.

https://www.thenational.scot/news/19968 ... -warships/

bt

ZaphodHarkonnen · Thu Mar 17, 2022 3:28 am

RNZAF P-8As entering production.

https://twitter.com/NZDefenceForce/stat ... 0785945600
https://www.defence.govt.nz/the-latest/ ... -milestone

superbizzy73 · Thu Mar 17, 2022 2:38 pm

WoodysAeroimag wrote:
@RoyalAirForce @BoeingDefense E-7A Wedgetail AEW Mk1 (737-700) - C/N 66840 / LN 9103 rolled out of final assembly.

Saw that aircraft flying into KBFI a couple of days ago, and it totally confused me...until I realized what it was!

WoodysAeroimag · Thu Mar 31, 2022 12:04 am

170015 for the US Navy is out

WoodysAeroimag · Thu Mar 31, 2022 12:05 am

The 1st P8 for @NZAirForce has arrived at Renton for final assembly.

9449 737-8FV Royal New Zealand Air Force

BobLoblah · Sun Apr 10, 2022 10:38 pm

WoodysAeroimag wrote:
170015 for the US Navy is out

ca350 on flickr got a picture of this one flying on 4/8/22 and gives its line number as 9257. I was expecting it to be ~9218. Did I miss one?

https://www.flickr.com/photos/148006280 ... 990353172/

Thanks!

WoodysAeroimag · Mon Apr 11, 2022 12:15 am

BobLoblah wrote:
WoodysAeroimag wrote:
170015 for the US Navy is out

ca350 on flickr got a picture of this one flying on 4/8/22 and gives its line number as 9257. I was expecting it to be ~9218. Did I miss one?

https://www.flickr.com/photos/148006280 ... 990353172/

Thanks!

9219 hasn't been seen at Renton yet. The line # is 9257

9296, 9334, 9373, 9411, & 9449 are in final assembly now.

BobLoblah · Mon Apr 11, 2022 3:01 am

Awesome info, thanks!

bikerthai · Mon Apr 11, 2022 3:12 pm

9218 is not a P-8 line number.
Looks like the commercials line numbers do not sync with the military line numbers in the production schedules.

bt

WoodysAeroimag · Sat Apr 16, 2022 3:22 pm

The next P8 for the @USNavy rolled out of paint.

BuNo. 170016

bikerthai · Mon Apr 25, 2022 12:23 pm

According to The Times, a US marine surveillance P-8 Poseidon aircraft, was tracking Moskva in the hours before it was attacked before supplying its location to the Ukrainian military.

Just speculation, but perhaps they can chalk up a first assist in sinking of a surface vessel.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... -ship.html

bt

N328KF · Sun Jun 05, 2022 2:43 am

Germany has funded 7 more P-8 Poseidons, bringing total procurement to 12. This probably will pretty much replace the P-3Cs.

https://www.defensenews.com/global/euro ... ping-list/

Kiwirob · Sun Jun 05, 2022 11:05 am

N328KF wrote:
Germany has funded 7 more P-8 Poseidons, bringing total procurement to 12. This probably will pretty much replace the P-3Cs.

https://www.defensenews.com/global/euro ... ping-list/

I struggle to see why Germany needs 12 P8’s they have a rather limited area to patrol. Countries which need more of the are NZ, Norway, The UK, not Germany. It makes me think they don’t really know what to do with the increased budget.

Noray · Sun Jun 05, 2022 11:19 am

N328KF wrote:
Germany has funded 7 more P-8 Poseidons, bringing total procurement to 12. This probably will pretty much replace the P-3Cs.

https://www.defensenews.com/global/euro ... ping-list/

That's not official, and there still is the French-German MAWS project. Quoted from the article:

The list of investment priorities attached to the special fund bill doesn’t mention P-8s by name, saying only that an unspecific number of additional planes in the maritime-surveillance category should be bought. Defense officials did not return a request for comment on Friday afternoon.

On Twitter, a German MOD spokeswoman (privately) has contradicted the information.

Noray · Sun Jun 05, 2022 11:21 am

Kiwirob wrote:
N328KF wrote:
Germany has funded 7 more P-8 Poseidons, bringing total procurement to 12. This probably will pretty much replace the P-3Cs.

https://www.defensenews.com/global/euro ... ping-list/

I struggle to see why Germany needs 12 P8’s they have a rather limited area to patrol. Countries which need more of the are NZ, Norway, The UK, not Germany. It makes me think they don’t really know what to do with the increased budget.

Ever heard of "NATO"? Guess what the "A" stands for and where Russian submarines will operate.

Germany once had just as many Breguet Atlantics as France.

bikerthai · Sun Jun 05, 2022 12:03 pm

Noray wrote:
That's not official, and there still is the French-German MAWS project.

The MAWS project is still a few years out. If the order for 7 more P-8A is true, then Germany may get the last of the 7 delivered before the MAWS project make first flight.

Noray wrote:
Ever heard of "NATO"? Guess what the "A" stands for and where Russian submarines will operate.

From the rumor mill and speculations: For a while, there was talk about NATO (specifically the Mediterranean countries) looking in to P-8s. However that discussion has pretty much gone silent. So it is conceivable that flushed with cash, Germany may be loading up on P-8s for NATO commitments in the Med as well.

Note that Boeing/US NAVY has offered Canada 20 P-8s. If that comes to pass, the North Atlantic would pretty much me covered. And the French may have to scale back the MAWS project.

bt

Noray · Sun Jun 05, 2022 12:33 pm

bikerthai wrote:
Noray wrote:
That's not official, and there still is the French-German MAWS project.

The MAWS project is still a few years out.

But if it is meant to be kept alive, it needs a budget as well, and money from the €100 bn special fund would come in handy.

bikerthai · Sun Jun 05, 2022 2:11 pm

Noray wrote:
But if it is meant to be kept alive, it needs a budget as well, and money from the €100 bn special fund would come in handy.

Only if France put money in the pot as well. At first they said the 5 P-8A Germany bought was an interim solution. I could see a scenario where Germany would transfer them to NATO once MAWS is implemented. If Germany is ordering 7 more, then you can take out the "interim" part.

And yes if they say order 7 it would be for a system currently in production and not developmental.

bt

JetBuddy · Sun Jun 05, 2022 3:24 pm

Interesting discussion. Maybe the 7 more P-8 will end up in a NATO pool like the E-3 Sentry AWACS and C-17 Globemaster II at Papa Air Base.
That being said, Germany does have a need for maritime surveillance and anti-sub warfare aircraft. They have ports both in the Baltic Sea and the North Sea.

bikerthai · Sun Jun 05, 2022 3:46 pm

Also, P-8s are more than just anti-sub.

They are not only flying over the Black Sea, but doing loops over Romaina as well.

SIGNINT is also a major function.

bt

Noray · Sun Jun 05, 2022 4:05 pm

bikerthai wrote:
Noray wrote:
But if it is meant to be kept alive, it needs a budget as well, and money from the €100 bn special fund would come in handy.

Only if France put money in the pot as well. At first they said the 5 P-8A Germany bought was an interim solution. I could see a scenario where Germany would transfer them to NATO once MAWS is implemented. If Germany is ordering 7 more, then you can take out the "interim" part.

And yes if they say order 7 it would be for a system currently in production and not developmental.

bt

France has a requirement to replace the Atlantic 2 around 2035, they will need to pay for the development anyway.

Once more: The official German plan doesn't mention any number or type of aircraft, it just says "Procurement of more maritime patrol aircraft". "7 more P-8A" is a rumour that has been quoted by Defensenews, but denied by a German government spokesperson. It may be the idea of the naval leadership, but the decision rests with Parliament and the government.

bikerthai · Sun Jun 05, 2022 4:24 pm

Noray wrote:
France has a requirement to replace the Atlantic 2 around 2035, they will need to pay for the development anyway.

The question: Is France willing to start paying now. Even if the development takes 10 years, it would not be until 2025 when France have to put in serious money.

If we hear that France is starting MAWS funding in the next few months, then I may buy in to the posibility.

Something tells me all of Western Europe will be wanting to spend money on real hardware right now as opposed to something slated for 2035.

bt

Kiwirob · Mon Jun 06, 2022 7:21 am

Noray wrote:
Kiwirob wrote:
N328KF wrote:
Germany has funded 7 more P-8 Poseidons, bringing total procurement to 12. This probably will pretty much replace the P-3Cs.

https://www.defensenews.com/global/euro ... ping-list/

I struggle to see why Germany needs 12 P8’s they have a rather limited area to patrol. Countries which need more of the are NZ, Norway, The UK, not Germany. It makes me think they don’t really know what to do with the increased budget.

Ever heard of "NATO"? Guess what the "A" stands for and where Russian submarines will operate.

Germany once had just as many Breguet Atlantics as France.

Still doesn't mean they need 12.

bikerthai · Mon Jun 06, 2022 2:43 pm

Whether they need 12 or not . . . the quantity is confirmed and wait for government approval.

https://www.aviacionline.com/2022/06/ge ... s-project/

Sounds to me the MAWS project is cooked. Canada will be forced to go by way of the P-8A as well . . . the reasoning will sound familiar . . . Interoperability with other NATO members and available now.

I can see it now, German with their cash can provide the high end MMA and those with less funds can supplement with smaller airframes.

bt

stratable · Mon Jun 06, 2022 3:05 pm

Potentially having 12 aircraft also comes back to Germany planning to be more involved internationally, especially in the South China Sea. I could see a situation where in a few years time, German P8s will be operating out of say South Korea or Japan as part of an international mission.

Noray · Mon Jun 06, 2022 4:09 pm

bikerthai wrote:
Whether they need 12 or not . . . the quantity is confirmed and wait for government approval.

https://www.aviacionline.com/2022/06/ge ... s-project/

Sounds to me the MAWS project is cooked. Canada will be forced to go by way of the P-8A as well . . . the reasoning will sound familiar . . . Interoperability with other NATO members and available now.

That article was published two days ago by an Argentinian author who doesn't seem to be specialized in Germany (possibly just echoing Defensenews?), round about the same time a German MOD spokesperson disclaimed that information. How can you call this a confirmation? In Germany, there are Pentecost holidays and no real news are to be expected right now.

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