Avatar2go wrote:aumaverick wrote:Assuming there are 4 versions, after a successful orbital launch of the current Starship stack, what is the expected build schedule for Starship?
- Starship Tanker : crewed, earth re-entry, reusable (assuming tanking would not be an automated process)
- HLS-A : expendable
- HLS-B : reusable
- Starship Prime : crewed, lunar-transit capable, earth re-entry, reusable
The first priority for SpaceX is Starship testing and demonstration flights, followed by the cargo versions needed for Starlink and other payloads. These are needed to produce revenue required to support future development. None of those require the tanker.
The next priority will be the tanker, which is a prerequisite for HLS. But there is a fallback in that for HLS Option A, Falcon Heavy could also deliver sufficient propellant. It just requires more launches.
The next priority would be the HLS Option A missions, which are currently in the paper development stages.
If all that is successful, then I'd imagine HLS Option B and DearMoon could undergo simultaneous development. It's likely that DearMoon would re-enter uncrewed, having transfered crew back to Dragon for separate re-entry.
Thanks, Avatar2go, So really, it sounds like 5 variants. How is this for a guesstimate of a revised timeline?
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Starship Demo / Cargo ; uncrewed, earth re-entry, reusable
Currently only 1 Starship ready for demo orbital flight. Assuming 1-2 more vehicles needed to complete testing before completing Cargo variant. 2-3 years from 03/2023
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Starship Tanker / Falcon Heavy Tanker : crewed, earth re-entry, reusable (assuming tanking would not be an automated process) or a workaround with Falcon Heavy providing the tanking for HLS-A
Currently 0 vehicles assembled. Assuming minimum 1 Starship vehicle needed for testing of in-orbit rendezvous tanking. SWAG of 2-3 years development, build, and testing from initial design confirmation of Demo/Cargo puts est. first flight at 03/2026 if developed in co-parallel with
Demo/Cargo.-
HLS-A : expendable
Currently 0 vehicles assembled. Assuming minimum 1 Starship vehicle needed for mission. SWAG of 1-2 years development & build from initial design confirmation of
Starship Tanker puts est. first flight at 05/2028 if developed in parallel with
Starship Tanker.
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HLS-B : reusable
Currently 0 vehicles assembled. Assuming minimum 1 Starship vehicle needed for mission. SWAG of 1-2 years development & build from initial design confirmation of
HLS-A puts est. first flight at 06/2029 if developed in parallel with
HLS-A.
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Starship Prime : crewed, lunar-transit capable but NOT a lunar lander, earth re-entry, reusable
Currently 0 vehicles assembled. Assuming minimum 1 Starship vehicle needed for mission. SWAG of 1 year's development & build from initial design confirmation of
HLS-A puts est. first flight at 06/2030 if developed in parallel with
HLS-B.