F9Animal wrote:

There is a report that Russia has claimed to have shot down a Ukrainian Cargo/Military aircraft. Anyone have any news on that?

The non aviation topic had something about it, believed to be carrying western weapons delivery.

F9Animal wrote:

There is a report that Russia has claimed to have shot down a Ukrainian Cargo/Military aircraft. Anyone have any news on that?

I found this on the CNN web site:

Russian Ministry of Defense spokesperson Maj. Gen. Igor Konashenkov claimed in a statement Saturday the Russian military had shot down a Ukrainian military transport plane carrying military equipment from Western countries.

The statement said "a Ukrainian military transport aircraft was shot down in the air" in the Odesa region while "delivering a large batch of weapons supplied to Ukraine by Western countries."

...

Russia has claimed to have destroyed more Ukrainian military aircraft than were known to be in Ukraine's inventory, according to open-source information.

Transporting weapons to Odessa area using scarce aviation resource seems to me an inefficient method at this stage, unless its something really important, like critical medical supplies or replacement naval missiles.

If the downing is confirmed, I'd be more worried about potential high valued personel, like a general or similar who may have better reason to be flying into the Odessa area.

bt

There is an offensive about to begin that may decide the course of the war in Ukraine. It is not going too far to say that this window of time before the launch of the Russian offensive is critical to the survival of Ukraine, later will be too late. Times like this is why these planes were purchased, in peace time we could ship everything for the military by rail, truck or ship, it really would make no difference.

I have been watching FR24 for the last month, watching the parade of freighters landing at Rzeszow Jasionka Airport, sometimes trying to guess what they're carrying; Javelins?, medical supplies?, MREs?, Mortar rounds?, critical civilian needs? there are thousands of things needed to sustain an army; an armored division requires from 400 to 700 tons of supply every day while in combat. That division is about 15,000 people, the Ukrainians are fielding at least 150,000 right now and they are all actively engaged in combat.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_ ... th_century

For the last few days there have also been C-5Bs landing at Jasionka, my assumption is that they are hauling 155 howitzers, which I know the Ukrainians badly need to get in place in Kharkiv Oblast before the onslaught begins. Again, later will be too late.

There is no FR24 equivalent for the road network in central Europe, but I'm sure the traffic has been heavy carrying munitions, MRAPS, engineering gear and other heavy items.

The war in Ukraine is kind of a big deal, its outcome will decide the future of Ukraine, Russia, and to a large extent Europe for the next 50 years.

Vintage wrote:

There is no FR24 equivalent for the road network in central Europe, but I'm sure the traffic has been heavy carrying munitions, MRAPS, engineering gear and other heavy items.

The war in Ukraine is kind of a big deal, its outcome will decide the future of Ukraine, Russia, and to a large extent Europe for the next 50 years.

In Germany, the Autobahn-Webcams were switched off some weeks ago due to "security reasons". The german PZF3 were suprisingly fast arriving at the front. Obviously moving tanks is harder than moving some lorries with PZF3, though.

https://twitter.com/Team_Luftwaffe/stat ... 90/photo/2

Photo of a German EF escorting a B-52.

While the Moskva is still busy with the special submarine operation, the first images have emerged. It also shows the weather conditions after the attack.

https://nitter.hu/UAWeapons/status/1515820381013168135

flyingturtle wrote:

While the Moskva is still busy with the special submarine operation, the first images have emerged. It also shows the weather conditions after the attack.

https://nitter.hu/UAWeapons/status/1515820381013168135

For some reason that looks like a decommissioned ship. I don't see anything that really resembles the Moskva. Is this for sure?

F9Animal wrote:

flyingturtle wrote:

While the Moskva is still busy with the special submarine operation, the first images have emerged. It also shows the weather conditions after the attack.

https://nitter.hu/UAWeapons/status/1515820381013168135

For some reason that looks like a decommissioned ship. I don't see anything that really resembles the Moskva. Is this for sure?

Yes, that's the Moskva for sure.

F9Animal wrote:

flyingturtle wrote:

While the Moskva is still busy with the special submarine operation, the first images have emerged. It also shows the weather conditions after the attack.

https://nitter.hu/UAWeapons/status/1515820381013168135

For some reason that looks like a decommissioned ship. I don't see anything that really resembles the Moskva. Is this for sure?

You can make out all the distinctive features of a Slava-class cruiser. Especially, the four slanted sets of P-500 or P-1000 hypersonic cruise missile launchers can be seen in the smoke.

flyingturtle wrote:

F9Animal wrote:

flyingturtle wrote:

While the Moskva is still busy with the special submarine operation, the first images have emerged. It also shows the weather conditions after the attack.

https://nitter.hu/UAWeapons/status/1515820381013168135

For some reason that looks like a decommissioned ship. I don't see anything that really resembles the Moskva. Is this for sure?

You can make out all the distinctive features of a Slava-class cruiser. Especially, the four slanted sets of P-500 or P-1000 hypersonic cruise missile launchers can be seen in the smoke.

The missile can reportedly reach Mach 3, so strictly speaking not hypersonic. We should be wary of all that PR and threat videos put out by Russia prior to the conflict. They have the weapon deployed from a modified MiG-31 but how many? Considering they’ve been caught out with low stocks of basic PGMs.
While the issue of these systems needs addressing and clearly in recent years much more effort in these had been taking place in Russia, if sanctions are badly disrupting their ability to make tanks what about these expensive and exotic weapons?

GDB wrote:

The missile can reportedly reach Mach 3, so strictly speaking not hypersonic. We should be wary of all that PR and threat videos put out by Russia prior to the conflict. They have the weapon deployed from a modified MiG-31 but how many? Considering they’ve been caught out with low stocks of basic PGMs.
While the issue of these systems needs addressing and clearly in recent years much more effort in these had been taking place in Russia, if sanctions are badly disrupting their ability to make tanks what about these expensive and exotic weapons?

I know the P-500 Bazalt and P-1000 Vulcan can reach about Mach 3. My bad for using a word that is rather associated high-altitude ramjets and atmospheric reentry vehicles.

About "if sanctions are badly disrupting their ability to make tanks what about these expensive and exotic weapons?"

I think the trick is that it suffices to make semi-successful test run every now and then, and show some PR clips of these tests on TV. The public isn't allowed to know a lot, anyway - in contrast to the west, where the press can freely write about weapon systems' shortcomings. I would even say that a free press is a crucial factor in ensuring a battle-ready military. (Nice topic right here, and a great film: "The Pentagon Wars".)

With the appearance of Russian heavy bombers in the fight over eastern Ukraine, are they out of range for the E-3s that are flying right along the border on the western side? Nice pic in the link provided, of the tracks NATO surveillance aircraft have been flying.

https://i.redd.it/w2r20qdcp6u81.jpg

Buckeyetech wrote:

With the appearance of Russian heavy bombers in the fight over eastern Ukraine, are they out of range for the E-3s that are flying right along the border on the western side? Nice pic in the link provided, of the tracks NATO surveillance aircraft have been flying.

https://i.redd.it/w2r20qdcp6u81.jpg

On at least one occasion, Turkey had an E-7 up as well. Just a guess, but that can probably travel on the southern edge more safely than an E-3 from Germany.

Buckeyetech wrote:

With the appearance of Russian heavy bombers in the fight over eastern Ukraine, are they out of range for the E-3s that are flying right along the border on the western side? Nice pic in the link provided, of the tracks NATO surveillance aircraft have been flying.

https://i.redd.it/w2r20qdcp6u81.jpg

This is obviously a dangerous development because from what i've read they are sending Tu-22M3s with dummy bombs to essentially carpet bomb Mariupol. This leads to the conclusion that they are running out of precision munitions. Otherwise they would have Tu-22ms or Tu-160s orbiting Engels and staying within Russian airspace launching Kh101s. I fear we're just going to so see more indiscriminate bombing for the duration of this conflict.

Buckeyetech wrote:

With the appearance of Russian heavy bombers in the fight over eastern Ukraine, are they out of range for the E-3s that are flying right along the border on the western side? Nice pic in the link provided, of the tracks NATO surveillance aircraft have been flying.

https://i.redd.it/w2r20qdcp6u81.jpg

Is the G550 the Italian AISREW?
I saw that twice on radar over Romania.
Also seen a rare French Transall Gabriel over Romania,, too.
The ARTEMIS Challenger was flying almost daily. Haven't looked in a while.
https://theaviationist.com/2020/09/27/t ... -abkhazia/
These are the ones you can see on FR or ADSB. I read somewhere that U2s are also flying from Fairford.

flyingturtle wrote:

F9Animal wrote:

flyingturtle wrote:

While the Moskva is still busy with the special submarine operation, the first images have emerged. It also shows the weather conditions after the attack.

https://nitter.hu/UAWeapons/status/1515820381013168135

For some reason that looks like a decommissioned ship. I don't see anything that really resembles the Moskva. Is this for sure?

You can make out all the distinctive features of a Slava-class cruiser. Especially, the four slanted sets of P-500 or P-1000 hypersonic cruise missile launchers can be seen in the smoke.

Yep!! You are right! That must have been a "bad accident." Any reports on casualties?

In other news, Google Maps now shows all Russian military facilities without pixelation. If you have a tractor and if you're in need of an ICBM...

https://censor.net/en/news/3334945/sate ... aps_photos

F9Animal wrote:

Yep!! You are right! That must have been a "bad accident." Any reports on casualties?

It's reported that a Slava-class cruiser has about 500 personnel on board. This ceremony apparently shows rescued seamen of the "Moskva" - which are a lot less than 500. I wonder...

https://www.independent.co.uk/tv/news/r ... 59638.html

And this article (attention: Daily Mail):

"But horror accounts of the sinking have started to emerge from conscripts serving on board the ship, with one telling his parents that at least 40 members of the crew were killed with 'many' left missing or maimed with lost limbs after the strike. Hundreds are thought to have died as the vessel went down."

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... nking.html

flyingturtle wrote:

In other news, Google Maps now shows all Russian military facilities without pixelation. If you have a tractor and if you're in need of an ICBM...

https://censor.net/en/news/3334945/sate ... aps_photos

What always wondered me is that (subjectively I must admit) on a lot of Russian air bases you see a lot of aircraft like fighters or bombers lined up. I would have thought they would mostly be in hangars (well the fighters at least).
As if you compare it to air bases in the UK, Germany etc you'd be lucky to spot an aircraft on Google Maps.

flyingturtle wrote:

It's reported that a Slava-class cruiser has about 500 personnel on board. This ceremony apparently shows rescued seamen of the "Moskva" - which are a lot less than 500. I wonder...

In the other thread I posted a link to a story about a relative trying to find a sailor from the cruiser. The relative said they saw about 200 sailors in the hospital. Add to that number the 100 who were uninjured or lightly injured from the video, you are left with about 200 uncounted for.

by

ReverseFlow wrote:

That always wondered me is that (subjectively I must admit) on a lot of Russian air bases you see a lot of aircraft like fighters or bombers lined up. I would have thought they would mostly be in hangars (well the fighters at least).
As if you compare it to air bases in the UK, Germany etc you'd be lucky to spot an aircraft on Google Maps.

Some people have suggested that several of those aircraft on the apron are not functional and just park there, either because they needed room elsewhere or to make the fleet appear larger on satellite images.
At least one image showed a Su-57. Though they might not use the delicate RAM coating of some US jets, letting those aircraft sit out in the open will lead to surface deterioration. Hence, chances are that this aircraft is not part of the active inventory.

flyingturtle wrote:

F9Animal wrote:

flyingturtle wrote:

While the Moskva is still busy with the special submarine operation, the first images have emerged. It also shows the weather conditions after the attack.

https://nitter.hu/UAWeapons/status/1515820381013168135

For some reason that looks like a decommissioned ship. I don't see anything that really resembles the Moskva. Is this for sure?

You can make out all the distinctive features of a Slava-class cruiser. Especially, the four slanted sets of P-500 or P-1000 hypersonic cruise missile launchers can be seen in the smoke.

I noticed two fire hoses operational near the illumination radar on aft part of the ship. They must have had power available, guessing an emergency generator.

flyingturtle wrote:

In other news, Google Maps now shows all Russian military facilities without pixelation. If you have a tractor and if you're in need of an ICBM...

https://censor.net/en/news/3334945/sate ... aps_photos

Good on Google for opening that up. Interesting imagery.

LMP737 wrote:

flyingturtle wrote:

F9Animal wrote:

For some reason that looks like a decommissioned ship. I don't see anything that really resembles the Moskva. Is this for sure?

You can make out all the distinctive features of a Slava-class cruiser. Especially, the four slanted sets of P-500 or P-1000 hypersonic cruise missile launchers can be seen in the smoke.

I noticed two fire hoses operational near the illumination radar on aft part of the ship. They must have had power available, guessing an emergency generator.

Here they reckon those hoses are from a sea rescue tug behind it.

https://mobile.twitter.com/vcdgf555/sta ... fied-image

ReverseFlow wrote:

LMP737 wrote:

flyingturtle wrote:

You can make out all the distinctive features of a Slava-class cruiser. Especially, the four slanted sets of P-500 or P-1000 hypersonic cruise missile launchers can be seen in the smoke.

I noticed two fire hoses operational near the illumination radar on aft part of the ship. They must have had power available, guessing an emergency generator.

Here they reckon those hoses are from a sea rescue tug behind it.

https://mobile.twitter.com/vcdgf555/sta ... fied-image

Man, I need my eyes checked.

There we go with more aircraft for Ukraine:

@PentagonPresSec said just now Ukraine "have received additional aircraft and the aircraft parts to help them get more more aircraft in the air" recently

https://twitter.com/paulmcleary/status/1516499382669123587

Buckeyetech wrote:

With the appearance of Russian heavy bombers in the fight over eastern Ukraine, are they out of range for the E-3s that are flying right along the border on the western side? Nice pic in the link provided, of the tracks NATO surveillance aircraft have been flying.

Eastern Ukraine is out of range. Ukraine is more than 1200 km wide, while the E-3 has a published detection range of 375 km. Even if they're grossly understating the capabilities, you would need an over-the-horizon radar to track aircraft near Mariupol (which I doubt the E-3 has).
Not sure how close Russia is letting anybody over the Black Sea, as this is international airspace.

I think the SigInt aircraft are providing more useful data currently, although the AWACS can still give ample warning time in case of attacks on western Ukraine.

mxaxai wrote:

Buckeyetech wrote:

With the appearance of Russian heavy bombers in the fight over eastern Ukraine, are they out of range for the E-3s that are flying right along the border on the western side? Nice pic in the link provided, of the tracks NATO surveillance aircraft have been flying.

Eastern Ukraine is out of range. Ukraine is more than 1200 km wide, while the E-3 has a published detection range of 375 km. Even if they're grossly understating the capabilities, you would need an over-the-horizon radar to track aircraft near Mariupol (which I doubt the E-3 has).
Not sure how close Russia is letting anybody over the Black Sea, as this is international airspace.

I think the SigInt aircraft are providing more useful data currently, although the AWACS can still give ample warning time in case of attacks on western Ukraine.

Just to understand -- where does the "war zone" begin for NATO aircraft in the Black Sea? Sinop to Mariupol is 320 nm, according to GCMap.
AWACS orbiting in the middle of the Black Sea could see somewhat further into East and South Ukraine, than from orbiting over Poland or Slovakia...

Phosphorus wrote:

AWACS orbiting in the middle of the Black Sea could see somewhat further into East and South Ukraine, than from orbiting over Poland or Slovakia...

If we are talking about the Black Sea, wouldn't Turkey's E-7 provide better resolution with the huge phase array radar?

bt

Because this has never happened in the past.

What happens to weapons sent to Ukraine? The US doesn't really know
https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/19/politics ... index.html

"And so far, it appears that Russia has struggled to intercept or destroy the supply shipments. A third source familiar with the intelligence said that it does not appear that Russia has been actively attacking western weapons shipments entering Ukraine -- although it is unclear exactly why, especially since the US has intelligence that the Russians want to and have discussed doing so both publicly and privately.

There are a number of theories for why the shipments have so far been spared, this person added, including that Russian forces simply can't find them -- the weapons and equipment are being sent over in unmarked vehicles and often transported at night. It could also be that the Russian forces are running out of munitions and don't want to waste them targeting random trucks unless they can be certain they are part of an arms convoy."

I don't believe that source for a second. Surprised the Russian and US spy satellites are not bumping into each other parked over Ukraine.

william wrote:

Because this has never happened in the past.

What happens to weapons sent to Ukraine? The US doesn't really know
https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/19/politics ... index.html

"And so far, it appears that Russia has struggled to intercept or destroy the supply shipments. A third source familiar with the intelligence said that it does not appear that Russia has been actively attacking western weapons shipments entering Ukraine -- although it is unclear exactly why, especially since the US has intelligence that the Russians want to and have discussed doing so both publicly and privately.

There are a number of theories for why the shipments have so far been spared, this person added, including that Russian forces simply can't find them -- the weapons and equipment are being sent over in unmarked vehicles and often transported at night. It could also be that the Russian forces are running out of munitions and don't want to waste them targeting random trucks unless they can be certain they are part of an arms convoy."

I don't believe that source for a second. Surprised the Russian and US spy satellites are not bumping into each other parked over Ukraine.

Uhh... You do know that spy satellites aren't in geostationary orbit, right?

1. Russia doesn't have that many imagery/radar satellites left.
2. Ukraine is a relatively small country, but still large enough that a soda-straw satellite won't have synoptic coverage. Assuming the orbits line up.
3. Russia's imagery analysis sucks. They do not have the types of intel tools like the US has which can quickly parse through reams of data or pictures and see the differences. Especially in non-fixed target areas like airfields, shipyards, etc.
4. The analysis they can give takes time to form a coherent product, and by the time their kill-chain is in a position to do something about it, the convoy (or better termed "gaggle of a couple trucks") is in a different position.

What they really need is something like a J-STARS or RC-135 that can see far, process quickly, and communicate to ground and/or air forces in order to direct fires. But that takes money, and, more importantly, training to develop. Good luck with that.

Even if they know the route, without air supremacy, they wouldn't have the persistent air assets to attack any convoy west of the Dnipro. They also don't seem to have the right smart munitions to attack convoys.

bt

Phosphorus wrote:

mxaxai wrote:

Buckeyetech wrote:

With the appearance of Russian heavy bombers in the fight over eastern Ukraine, are they out of range for the E-3s that are flying right along the border on the western side? Nice pic in the link provided, of the tracks NATO surveillance aircraft have been flying.

Eastern Ukraine is out of range. Ukraine is more than 1200 km wide, while the E-3 has a published detection range of 375 km. Even if they're grossly understating the capabilities, you would need an over-the-horizon radar to track aircraft near Mariupol (which I doubt the E-3 has).
Not sure how close Russia is letting anybody over the Black Sea, as this is international airspace.

I think the SigInt aircraft are providing more useful data currently, although the AWACS can still give ample warning time in case of attacks on western Ukraine.

Just to understand -- where does the "war zone" begin for NATO aircraft in the Black Sea? Sinop to Mariupol is 320 nm, according to GCMap.
AWACS orbiting in the middle of the Black Sea could see somewhat further into East and South Ukraine, than from orbiting over Poland or Slovakia...

I’d bet that’s what the RQ-4s are doing. Watching the tracks of FORTE flights, it looks like they are using uncrewed assets for that particular job

LyleLanley wrote:

william wrote:

Ukraine is a relatively small country, but still large enough that a soda-straw satellite won't have synoptic coverage.

Ukraine is huge, it is the largest country in Europe (Russia has been demoted to a west Asian country).
From the Polish border near Rzeszow, it is 700 miles east to west.

LyleLanley wrote:

william wrote:

Because this has never happened in the past.

What happens to weapons sent to Ukraine? The US doesn't really know
https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/19/politics ... index.html

"And so far, it appears that Russia has struggled to intercept or destroy the supply shipments. A third source familiar with the intelligence said that it does not appear that Russia has been actively attacking western weapons shipments entering Ukraine -- although it is unclear exactly why, especially since the US has intelligence that the Russians want to and have discussed doing so both publicly and privately.

There are a number of theories for why the shipments have so far been spared, this person added, including that Russian forces simply can't find them -- the weapons and equipment are being sent over in unmarked vehicles and often transported at night. It could also be that the Russian forces are running out of munitions and don't want to waste them targeting random trucks unless they can be certain they are part of an arms convoy."

I don't believe that source for a second. Surprised the Russian and US spy satellites are not bumping into each other parked over Ukraine.

Uhh... You do know that spy satellites aren't in geostationary orbit, right?

1. Russia doesn't have that many imagery/radar satellites left.
2. Ukraine is a relatively small country, but still large enough that a soda-straw satellite won't have synoptic coverage. Assuming the orbits line up.
3. Russia's imagery analysis sucks. They do not have the types of intel tools like the US has which can quickly parse through reams of data or pictures and see the differences. Especially in non-fixed target areas like airfields, shipyards, etc.
4. The analysis they can give takes time to form a coherent product, and by the time their kill-chain is in a position to do something about it, the convoy (or better termed "gaggle of a couple trucks") is in a different position.

What they really need is something like a J-STARS or RC-135 that can see far, process quickly, and communicate to ground and/or air forces in order to direct fires. But that takes money, and, more importantly, training to develop. Good luck with that.

Yes, I know that................I should have used a sarcasm emoji.

Vintage wrote:

Ukraine is huge, it is the largest country in Europe (Russia has been demoted to a west Asian country).From the Polish border near Rzeszow, it is 700 miles east to west.

Valid, but it’s still relatively small; 40-45 other nations in the world are larger, including many nations on Russia’s ‘meanies’ list, and even Afghanistan is larger.

william wrote:

Yes, I know that................I should have used a sarcasm emoji.

It’s all good. I should’ve figured such.

TheSonntag wrote:

In 1997, I talked with a german fighter pilot who flew both the F4 and the Mig 29. He was not really Impressed with the Mig29, especially the radar..

In testing it still flew circles around anything NATO had with only the F-15 being able to barely keep up. The not so great radar led to uniqe tactics using F-4F KWSII and Mig-29Gs as a team, which performed well. I remember reading about the first time German and Israelis trained air to air together that the F4F/Mig combination had essentially 1:1 exchange rates with the Israeli F15/F16 flights...

best regards
Thomas

Good news for the Ukrainian Air Force:

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/04/20/poli ... index.html

An influx of spare parts has allowed them to return 20 aircraft to service, although we don't know which type(s).
Nothing is known about where these parts come from either but several NATO nations were involved in the effort and only a few of them operate the same hardware as Ukraine does.

The previous information that Ukraine had 'received' aircraft has since been corrected. They only got the spares. Talks to provide them with additional fighters are still ongoing however.

Francoflier wrote:

An influx of spare parts has allowed them to return 20 aircraft to service, although we don't know which type(s)..

Mig-29 and Su-25 are the only options, not many Su-27 spareparts to be had in the west.

best regards
Thomas

tommy1808 wrote:

Francoflier wrote:

An influx of spare parts has allowed them to return 20 aircraft to service, although we don't know which type(s)..

Mig-29 and Su-25 are the only options, not many Su-27 spareparts to be had in the west.

Could be helicopters as well.

petertenthije wrote:

tommy1808 wrote:

Francoflier wrote:

An influx of spare parts has allowed them to return 20 aircraft to service, although we don't know which type(s)..

Mig-29 and Su-25 are the only options, not many Su-27 spareparts to be had in the west.

Could be helicopters as well.

Or even transport, like the An-26s.
Hopefully, however, they're loud things with teeth.

I'd wager a guess that there is now a lot more going on behind closed curtains than we are getting told - which is absolutely a good thing!
Get the serious hardware to Ukraine ASAP but don't make a fuss and media spectacle about it like in the beginning.
Well know when more russian aicraft are falling from the sky and russian artillery positions suddenly go up in smoke.

LyleLanley wrote:

Russia doesn't have that many imagery/radar satellites left. (...) Russia's imagery analysis sucks.

Word!

And at this stage I really do wonder if there is actually anything left in the russian inventory that doesn't suck big time. I mean, seriously, first we see wheeled vehicles popping their tyres the moment they attempt to go offroad, then we see entire armored platoons just getting lost and abandoned.
Now they are already down to using ancient Tochka missiles, guess the Kalibr and Iskandr are pretty much depleted already? And even those are said to have a failure rate of around 60%...

Regarding the russian airforce, we expected much more from that of course, but would anyone prior to this war actually have though it would be THAT useless? Probably all comes together here, lack of training, MX, materials. I think after almost 8 weeks it's pretty fair to assume that Russia simply is unable to field more aircraft with more effectivity than what we have seen so far.

The entire russian military seems in a totally desolate state, which is probably also why everyone is now getting more ballsy with supplying Ukraine. If the nuclear arsenal is in such a dire condition as well, which I assume it is, there is little threat even if they try to use them.

I also think that despite superior numbers Russia will also fail taking the Donbas. All their military can do is perform some shiny parades, photo ops with Putler, shoot down civilian airliners and slaughter civilians. Ukraine is highly motivated and getting some nice gear too now, plus they are defending and are doing so with absolutely superior tactics as we have seen north of Kyiv. The losses on the Russian side are going to be absolutely enormous in the coming days and weeks. The onslaught so far has not made any advances, but the losses are skyrocketing.

BaconButty wrote:

I've been following this list of verified destroyed/damaged/captured equipment for a while now like I'm sure many of you. Took a deeper look at aircraft losses, specifically helicopters, and was actually surprised by what I saw.

As of now there are 32 losses, of which destroyed: 28, damaged: 2, abandoned: 1, captured: 1. Looked at all of them, and broke them down, particularly with a view to seeing how the thousands of heat seeking manpads have been performing. So I reckon, of those 32, 12 were destroyed on the ground (mostly at Kherson), another 7 were not brought down by IR Manpads - various reasons, not being shot down at all, being bought down by sumething else, even an atgm! That only left 13 candidates, some of which will be mechanical failures, other SAM's, anti aircraft guns self propelled or otherwise, even small arms fire and RPGs. I'd say it's odds on that in 6 weeks of fighting, the number of helicopters bought down by heat seeking manpads is in single figures, and there's no candidates later than 17th March! I know that list only has visually confirmed losses, but it seems unlikely to me that there will be many helicopters actually shot down without footage of either the event or the wreckage.

Given the amount of these weapons either already in Ukraine, or donated, that seems a paltry return. Given the way the Russians are now using attack helicopters as top cover for convoys in the east, and so deterring the kind of ambushes that worked so well in the north, that concerns me. A few questions:

1. Why? Is it because the Russians have recently installed countermeasures on their helicopters? How they are being deployed? Simple to be expected?
2. Does this mean heat seeking missiles are obselete against a near peer enemy now?
3. What can be done? Starstreak can't be bought in in sufficient numbers - of fire control units at least.

Coming back to your valid questions. Today (April 21), the manpads had a good harvest again: 2 helicopters and 2 or 3 aircraft shot down (of which one seen on video, falling from at least a medium altitude, so not maybe a manpad hit). I've noticed that the sky was mostly clear and that made me wonder if in case of low ceiling, there were just less opportunities for manpads. I would see 2 reasons for this. First, the low ceiling prevents some of the airborne operations and second, manpads operators need to see their target before shooting at it hence a reduced visibility would be reducing the chances to engage a target. Could this partly explain the erratic statistics of helicopters and aircraft shot down?

Curious story of Ukrainians finding stolen spares and weapons in an abandoned warehouse.

The SBU claimed that the equipment found at this storage was stolen earlier from military arsenals. And on the eve of a full-scale invasion, the owners of the warehouse were going to cooperate with the occupying forces and provide equipment for the needs of the enemy.

https://defence-blog.com/tank-engines-m ... r-kharkiv/

Well... regarding the Russian warship: The Kremlin now reports one dead and 27 missing.

I hope the mothers back in Russia will be happy to hear that...

Ukrainian An-26 crashed today, apparently due to hitting a utility tower or electrical power line. https://www.youtube.com/shorts/oHqi7G5Msj8
Might be the same aircraft: https://postimg.cc/4myGLqNQ
People on twitter reporting that 1 of the 3 crew died.

tomcat wrote:

Coming back to your valid questions. Today (April 21), the manpads had a good harvest again: 2 helicopters and 2 or 3 aircraft shot down (of which one seen on video, falling from at least a medium altitude, so not maybe a manpad hit). I've noticed that the sky was mostly clear and that made me wonder if in case of low ceiling, there were just less opportunities for manpads. I would see 2 reasons for this. First, the low ceiling prevents some of the airborne operations and second, manpads operators need to see their target before shooting at it hence a reduced visibility would be reducing the chances to engage a target. Could this partly explain the erratic statistics of helicopters and aircraft shot down?

A bumper crop! Saw the losses flash by on my twitter feed, and might have missed one or two. Quite a few videos of the double helicopter shoot down. The Ukrainians have confirmed these were shot down by “Stingers”, though they seem to use that as a generic term for manpads; at least one of them was shot down by an Igla. It was interesting, looks like an Mi-8 was shot down at close range, maybe giving no time for the countermeasures to kick in, and an escorting Ka-52 spent 90 seconds spitting out flares, and once they ran out was immediately shot down! I saw an Su-25 and some 2 seater were shot down, again the Su-25 was confirmed as falling victim to a “stinger” so a good day for the maligned missiles! They need to get a drip drip bit of attrition on Russian air power.

Another interesting thing is that they seem to be using the Martlet/LMM against the cheap small drones with success. The martlet uses the same launchers and guidance as the Starstreaks, but is smaller, slower and shorter ranged. But it is relatively cheap and has a unitary warhead, so probably the right tool for the job. I’ve read the IR Manpads have trouble locking on to the likes of the Orla 10, being the size of model planes.

You could well be right about the reasons. Might also be down to the war being concentrated in a smaller area, and the fact that Russia is on the offensive again. Anyway, good news (unless you’re Russian!), let’s see if it keeps up.

Claims surfaced that a TB-2 was found crashed / shot down in Russia with possible links to recent explosions in Bryansk. On the other hand, Ukrainian reports deny that any of their equipment crossed into Russia and warn of possible false-flag propaganda.
https://twitter.com/theragex/status/151 ... Ws7IA&s=19
https://twitter.com/StarskyUA/status/15 ... rZiI8qAAAA

Su-34 caught flat-spinning into the ground. https://youtu.be/8vQa_mywq8k
It's still unclear whether a technical malfunction, operator error or combat damage caused this loss.