Anybody seeing any military aviation activity on the Ukrainian border? It's been dead quiet for a Military Aviation Forum in a saber rattling war zone...

On Flightradar24, the ratio of "weird" airplanes (no callsign, comical changes in altitude, weird zig-zags) has increased massively about five days ago. FORTE11 and FORTE12 are the usual old RQ-4B of the USAF, and they do what RQ-4B do at 53'000 ft.

There are currently 2 A400Ms from Turkey en route to Kiev. I wonder what they are carrying....

It is Russia's version of Shock and Awe.

Would be good to now have an analysis of the factors / reasons why some folks said no military action would take place....
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-60454795

par13del wrote:

Would be good to now have an analysis of the factors / reasons why some folks said no military action would take place....
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-60454795

Because in reality no one is really interested to go into an armed conflict ? I'm sure there will be many financial sanctions more to come but doubt it will do much except to give Putin more spin how the West is against Russia which will go down well for his home crowd & bolster his position even more.

We live in interesting times.

Reportedly one Ukrainian Su-27 intercepted and escorted by Romanian F-16 after violating Romanian airspace.
https://www.aerotime.aero/articles/3031 ... in-romania

There is a KC-10 above North Romania at 24.000 ft and a KC-135 above Poland. A Boeing E8 ist going back to Zweibrücken After circling above Poland.

B-52 above Poland aswell. Source Flightradar24

These sources are currently still unverified:

Ukraine:
Ukrainian An-26 shot down or crashed, 14 occupants, at least 5 killed: https://twitter.com/ELINTNews/status/14 ... 0592962564


Russia:
Russian Ka-52 damaged and forced to land: https://twitter.com/johnsweeneyroar/sta ... Z2YLA&s=19
Supposedly this is the same helicopter: https://twitter.com/michaelh992/status/ ... rYIyw&s=19

Russian Ka-52 shot down, at least 1 crew ejected, other may have been killed: https://twitter.com/aldin_ww/status/1496825424550285316

Ukraine claims to have shot down at least 6 Russian jets: https://www.facebook.com/CinCAFU/posts/254601806835312

Confirmed:
Ukrainian Su-27 intercepted and escorted by Romanian F-16 after violating Romanian airspace.https://www.aerotime.aero/articles/3031 ... in-romania

On ADS-B I'm seeing a NATO E3 and a German A400 orbiting over Romania, some orbiting KC-10s, a KC-135R, (presumably to refuel fighters,) a B-52, and a Dutch A330 all over Poland.

mxaxai wrote:

Confirmed:
Ukrainian Su-27 intercepted and escorted by Romanian F-16 after violating Romanian airspace.https://www.aerotime.aero/articles/3031 ... in-romania

Defector? it seems a bit weird that he went south out of Ukraine.

Not too surprising given the state of the Luftwaffe over the past 10 years but the Bundeswehr sounds like it is'stripped bare' and offers little real support per it's commander.

https://twitter.com/tobiaschneider/stat ... 2786852871

There was fighting to the South with reported Russian amphibious assault.

One possibility is the plane was trying to out run a missile or a Russian aircraft and temporarily wandered into Romania to escape.

bt

texl1649 wrote:

Not too surprising given the state of the Luftwaffe over the past 10 years but the Bundeswehr sounds like it is'stripped bare' and offers little real support per it's commander.

https://twitter.com/tobiaschneider/stat ... 2786852871

Don't you think it would be more appropriate now to get upset about Putin rather than your allies?

BTW, Mais is the commander of the German Army, and he probably wasn't adressing aircraft. The Luftwaffe currently has one A400M and several Eurofighters in Romania. As I'm typing this, the A400M is providing aerial refuelling there. The combat readiness of German Eurofighters has greatly improved in recent years.

Unverified (still):
Russian An-26 shot down, presumably all aboard killed. https://twitter.com/JulianRoepcke/statu ... 9756989440
https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/commen ... 26_downed/

Interesting that russia keeps denying any casualties. Guess they down want their civilian population to know the truth. First the denials came out when Ukraine claimed to have downed 5 russian fighters and 2 helicopters. Now they are denying that 4 tanks and up to 40 russian soldiers are dead.

In polish
https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiad ... 9,79cfc278

Only the first day and already reports of a few downed aircrafts. Definitively different than Gulf War II.

bt

Noray wrote:

texl1649 wrote:

Not too surprising given the state of the Luftwaffe over the past 10 years but the Bundeswehr sounds like it is'stripped bare' and offers little real support per it's commander.

https://twitter.com/tobiaschneider/stat ... 2786852871

Don't you think it would be more appropriate now to get upset about Putin rather than your allies?

BTW, Mais is the commander of the German Army, and he probably wasn't adressing aircraft. The Luftwaffe currently has one A400M and several Eurofighters in Romania. As I'm typing this, the A400M is providing aerial refuelling there. The combat readiness of German Eurofighters has greatly improved in recent years.

Oh I’m not mad at anyone, though yes Putin is a manipulative/terrible person, imho.

The Bundeswehr operates 200 helicopters though. If the army can offer little to no support, Luftwaffe assets won’t likely deter any actions alone either. Further, I have zero confidence their mission capable rates for Eurofighters are anything approaching ‘greatly improved’ given the flat budget and lack of transparency. Ideally this whole episode ends quickly with minimal bloodshed.

texl1649 wrote:

Ideally this whole episode ends quickly with minimal bloodshed.

Alas, this would assume either:

1) The Ukrainians would collapse quickly or is overwhelmed as in Georgia.

2) Russia expends all of this resources and willingly accept the anticipate all the sanctions just to teach Ukrainians a lesson.

Unfortunately, the best short term scenario I see is a partition of Ukraine at the river Dnieper.

Worst case is a long drawn out war.

Either way, Russia will be in the dog house for a long time.

bt

In the grand scheme, less significant than aerial combat and deaths, but allegedly the an-225 has been destroyed. The aircraft was supposedly at Hostomel airport which has been under attack.

FGITD wrote:

In the grand scheme, less significant than aerial combat and deaths, but allegedly the an-225 has been destroyed. The aircraft was supposedly at Hostomel airport which has been under attack.

Looks like Russian air assault has taken the cargo airport. Guess they are trying to establish an air bridge until ground forces arrives.

Bold but risky move if things progress too slowly.

bt

Antonov Airport (aka Gostomel or Hostomel Airport) just north of Kyiv, about 60 miles from the border with Belarus, is reported to have been assaulted by helicopter-borne troops. This is a cargo airport and is also used by Antonov as the base of the An-225.

It does not sound like this is normally used as a military airport, but if Ukraine dispersed their military aircraft in anticipation of the attack, some could have been moved there. Obviously, the 3500m runway would be an excellent location to fly in additional troops, equipment, and supplies if Russia is intending to keep control of the airport, versus a raid to accomplish some strategic goal and retreat.

Ukrainian troops have set up near the airport as well, presumably to try to retake it, and reportedly have fired artillery at the Russian forces.

Incredibly, a CNN reporter based in Kyiv is somewhere near the airport, and has spoken to some of the Russian airborne troops there (for the size of the airport, I'm sure they do not have a fully secured perimeter and are no doubt doing patrols that the reporter ran into). He reports they exchanged fire with Ukrainian troops shortly beforehand. There is a video of him and the Russian troops here:

https://www.cnn.com/videos/world/2022/0 ... -conflict/

I'm not inclined to say much positive about Russia right now, but God bless those specific soldiers for keeping their heads and respecting the safety of the press team even though their presence at a bare minimum will be a distraction to them, and certainly could be viewed as security risk.

Pardon me for going off topic for a moment: I wanted to point out that this airport is west of the Dnieper River. If it was being used to base Ukrainian combat aircraft, a cruise missile attack or bombing raid would have been a lower risk way to try to destroy those than an airborne raid. My personal interpretation of the fact that Russia landed troops at an airport 60 miles from the border with Belarus and geographically cut off from the ostensible region of conflict by one of the largest rivers on the continent is that Russia does indeed plan to continue their ground advance all the way to Kyiv as some have been speculating. I was very skeptical of suggestions their goals included reaching Kyiv until learning about this airport being seized.

Noray wrote:

texl1649 wrote:

Not too surprising given the state of the Luftwaffe over the past 10 years but the Bundeswehr sounds like it is'stripped bare' and offers little real support per it's commander.

https://twitter.com/tobiaschneider/stat ... 2786852871

Don't you think it would be more appropriate now to get upset about Putin rather than your allies?

BTW, Mais is the commander of the German Army, and he probably wasn't adressing aircraft. The Luftwaffe currently has one A400M and several Eurofighters in Romania. As I'm typing this, the A400M is providing aerial refuelling there. The combat readiness of German Eurofighters has greatly improved in recent years.

https://youtu.be/LDL_QBy4P2g

It seems the Germans are quite disappointed at themselves.
Which is good and about time the giant economic power of EU wakes up and help its allies to defend the liberal democratic order.

iamlucky13 wrote:

Antonov Airport (aka Gostomel or Hostomel Airport) just north of Kyiv, about 60 miles from the border with Belarus, is reported to have been assaulted by helicopter-borne troops. This is a cargo airport and is also used by Antonov as the base of the An-225.

From the initial video of the assault showing a few dozen helicopters, doesn't seem like a lot of troops to hold the airport.

Also saw a video of perhaps those same helicopter crossing a river with flares firing away.

There were also videos of what seems to be parachutes. Perhaps the para-drops were the heavy weapons being supplies to the infantry as it would be almost crazy to drop in troops by parachute in broad daylight.

bt

A BBC post says that the Ukraine government claimed that Hostomel is back in Ukrainian hands ... for now.

afterburner33 wrote:

A BBC post says that the Ukraine government claimed that Hostomel is back in Ukrainian hands ... for now.

Stunned they have tried to take it given how far from the front lines it is and how long they would prospectively have to hold out. Perhaps some additional spetnaz were pre-positioned locally to assist but still.

Any evidence of the use of western man-pads yet? The crash landed Ka-52 looked like it had its weapons "wing" blasted but that could have been from the landing.
Saw some video of what looked like defensive flares being launched by Russian aircraft in heavy cloud cover.

tommybp251b wrote:

There is a KC-10 above North Romania at 24.000 ft and a KC-135 above Poland. A Boeing E8 ist going back to Zweibrücken After circling above Poland.

Who are they refueling? Providing any services to Ukrainian Air Force?

SeamanBeaumont wrote:

afterburner33 wrote:

A BBC post says that the Ukraine government claimed that Hostomel is back in Ukrainian hands ... for now.

Stunned they have tried to take it given how far from the front lines it is and how long they would prospectively have to hold out. Perhaps some additional spetnaz were pre-positioned locally to assist but still.

Photo of the counterattack. https://mobile.twitter.com/Militaryland ... 6431125524 Can somebody identify the burned out grey T-tailed aircraft? Hopefully not one of the Turkish A400

originalblis wrote:

tommybp251b wrote:

There is a KC-10 above North Romania at 24.000 ft and a KC-135 above Poland. A Boeing E8 ist going back to Zweibrücken After circling above Poland.

Who are they refueling? Providing any services to Ukrainian Air Force?

MiG CAP. There are likely dozens of fighters up awaiting a stray Russian aircraft to violate NATO airspace. Today already 2 Romanian F-16s escorted a stray SU-27 to landing at a Romanian airbase.

originalblis wrote:

Who are they refueling? Providing any services to Ukrainian Air Force?

On FR24, I've seen AWACS and RC-135 aircraft in the area, they are probably hitting the tankers.

Anyone got a good summary of what's causing aircraft losses. Wikipedia says the Ukraine has 250 S-300s, 100 9K330 Tor, and 519 systems in total. And "many" MANPADS. Yet the Russian air force seems to be able to fly at will with minimal losses.

I think it is time for a Warthog response

kitplane01 wrote:

Anyone got a good summary of what's causing aircraft losses. Wikipedia says the Ukraine has 250 S-300s, 100 9K330 Tor, and 519 systems in total. And "many" MANPADS. Yet the Russian air force seems to be able to fly at will with minimal losses.

You don't flash all your cards on the first day...

What they have that is serviceable will pop up over the next week or two at in opportune times for the Russians..

Spacepope wrote:

SeamanBeaumont wrote:

afterburner33 wrote:

A BBC post says that the Ukraine government claimed that Hostomel is back in Ukrainian hands ... for now.

Stunned they have tried to take it given how far from the front lines it is and how long they would prospectively have to hold out. Perhaps some additional spetnaz were pre-positioned locally to assist but still.

Photo of the counterattack. https://mobile.twitter.com/Militaryland ... 6431125524 Can somebody identify the burned out grey T-tailed aircraft? Hopefully not one of the Turkish A400

Same location as this: https://mobile.twitter.com/_arween__/st ... 16/photo/4
Turkish A400Ms are at Boryspil Airport, not Hostomel.

SeamanBeaumont wrote:

kitplane01 wrote:

Anyone got a good summary of what's causing aircraft losses. Wikipedia says the Ukraine has 250 S-300s, 100 9K330 Tor, and 519 systems in total. And "many" MANPADS. Yet the Russian air force seems to be able to fly at will with minimal losses.

You don't flash all your cards on the first day...

What they have that is serviceable will pop up over the next week or two at in opportune times for the Russians..

I truely don’t believe there are people dying, the enemy is twenty miles from the capital, and you hold your missiles while the enemy targets and destroys them.

kitplane01 wrote:

SeamanBeaumont wrote:

kitplane01 wrote:

Anyone got a good summary of what's causing aircraft losses. Wikipedia says the Ukraine has 250 S-300s, 100 9K330 Tor, and 519 systems in total. And "many" MANPADS. Yet the Russian air force seems to be able to fly at will with minimal losses.

You don't flash all your cards on the first day...

What they have that is serviceable will pop up over the next week or two at in opportune times for the Russians..

I truely don’t believe there are people dying, the enemy is twenty miles from the capital, and you hold your missiles while the enemy targets and destroys them.

It's been a day, plenty more of this conflict to go and I expect we will be here 6 weeks from now discussing why Russia can't seem to finish the job.

A Su-27 was apparently shot down over Kiev this morning, markings visible on photos suggest that it was Ukrainian while Ukrainian officials claim that a Russian aircraft was shot down.
https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status ... 0118498304?
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-new ... e-26325553

I noticed yesterday and today a number of RAF Typhoons over Northern Poland, along with tankers and an RC135. What will be their mission so far from the Ukraine border?

journeyperson wrote:

I noticed yesterday and today a number of RAF Typhoons over Northern Poland, along with tankers and an RC135. What will be their mission so far from the Ukraine border?

Defence of NATO's borders and show of force, just in case any Russian units happen to show up in Poland.

SeamanBeaumont wrote:

kitplane01 wrote:

SeamanBeaumont wrote:

You don't flash all your cards on the first day...

What they have that is serviceable will pop up over the next week or two at in opportune times for the Russians..

I truely don’t believe there are people dying, the enemy is twenty miles from the capital, and you hold your missiles while the enemy targets and destroys them.

It's been a day, plenty more of this conflict to go and I expect we will be here 6 weeks from now discussing why Russia can't seem to finish the job.

The invasion is always easier than the occupation. Did Ukraine have real defensive positions near the border, it doesn't look like it. What will the West's response to Putin be, will it be some supplies to the Ukrainians, or NATO forces going it. It's not a good situation at all, I see images of the next Afghanistan - either us or when the Soviets came in, or Syria on steroids over 50x the area.

In terms of the aircraft involved - what does Ukraine have in terms of fighters and pilot training? Is the Russian Air Force up for this level of battle? They have some formidable looking aircraft but are there 100 front line fighters or several thousand ready to go. We may see how good the 5th gen fighters are, missiles and the dawning of the drone age. Plus China is watching how this plays.

journeyperson wrote:

I noticed yesterday and today a number of RAF Typhoons over Northern Poland, along with tankers and an RC135. What will be their mission so far from the Ukraine border?

The same reason why there are NATO troops in Poland, US, UK and despite the impression often given, a sizable contingent of other European NATO troops too.

There's some unconfirmed reports of a Ukrainian Mig-29 pilot having shot down six aircraft, including two SU-35s. He's being referred to as the 'Ghost of Kyiv', and if confirmed, it'll make him the first ace of the 21st century and the second 'ace-in-a-day' since WWII.

mxaxai wrote:

Su-27 was apparently shot down over Kiev this morning, markings visible on photos suggest that it was Ukrainian while Ukrainian officials claim that a Russian aircraft was shot down.

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/videos/world/20 ... ce-vpx.cnn

Wonder if its this same aircraft.

But does it really matter. US intelligence has already concede that Russia has air supremacy.

by

JayinKitsap wrote:

It's not a good situation at all, I see images of the next Afghanistan - either us or when the Soviets came in, or Syria on steroids over 50x the area.

I do do not see Ukrainians as fanatics. I do not believe it is in their culture or history.

I see it as more once the fighting dies down, could be days, could be weeks, but I don't see months, it will become like occupation of Eastern Europe post WWII.

From a human life perspective that may be best. Ukraine will experience a brain drain and suffer occupation until Russia has a change in leadership.

Only then, is there a chance it will be independent again, with a slight change in the border.

bt

tjwgrr wrote:

On ADS-B I'm seeing a NATO E3 and a German A400 orbiting over Romania, some orbiting KC-10s, a KC-135R, (presumably to refuel fighters,) a B-52, and a Dutch A330 all over Poland.

Aircraft like C-130s, A400s and such aircraft have comms relay capabilities. They can do racetracks along the Polish and Romanian borders with Ukraine to assist with Ukrainian command and control which the Russians were targeting.

bikerthai wrote:

I do do not see Ukrainians as fanatics. I do not believe it is in their culture or history.

I see it as more once the fighting dies down, could be days, could be weeks, but I don't see months, it will become like occupation of Eastern Europe post WWII.

From a human life perspective that may be best. Ukraine will experience a brain drain and suffer occupation until Russia has a change in leadership.

Only then, is there a chance it will be independent again, with a slight change in the border.

bt

It depends on whether comrade Vladimir Vladimirovich will choose to turn the country into another puppet state like Belarus or absorb it into his empire.
or he could do what the Germans did to France, occupy part of the country and let the rest become a puppet state.

STT757 wrote:

tjwgrr wrote:

On ADS-B I'm seeing a NATO E3 and a German A400 orbiting over Romania, some orbiting KC-10s, a KC-135R, (presumably to refuel fighters,) a B-52, and a Dutch A330 all over Poland.

Aircraft like C-130s, A400s and such aircraft have comms relay capabilities. They can do racetracks along the Polish and Romanian borders with Ukraine to assist with Ukrainian command and control which the Russians were targeting.

A400s also have refueling capabilities, which might be used by German Eurofighters (or other NATO forces) currently deployed to Romania.

bajs11 wrote:

to turn the country into another puppet state like Belarus or absorb it into his empire.

Western intelligence already surmised that a new Russian friendly government be formed for Ukraine after the "pacification" is complete.

Once that is done and the relatively short border to NATO states is "militarized", then supplies for any insurgency will be choked off.

Hope all who wish to leave can do it soon. Who knows what will be the situation when the fighting finally ends.

bt