F9Animal wrote:There is a report that Russia has claimed to have shot down a Ukrainian Cargo/Military aircraft. Anyone have any news on that?
The non aviation topic had something about it, believed to be carrying western weapons delivery.
Moderators: richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR
F9Animal wrote:There is a report that Russia has claimed to have shot down a Ukrainian Cargo/Military aircraft. Anyone have any news on that?
F9Animal wrote:There is a report that Russia has claimed to have shot down a Ukrainian Cargo/Military aircraft. Anyone have any news on that?
Vintage wrote:
There is no FR24 equivalent for the road network in central Europe, but I'm sure the traffic has been heavy carrying munitions, MRAPS, engineering gear and other heavy items.
The war in Ukraine is kind of a big deal, its outcome will decide the future of Ukraine, Russia, and to a large extent Europe for the next 50 years.
flyingturtle wrote:While the Moskva is still busy with the special submarine operation, the first images have emerged. It also shows the weather conditions after the attack.
https://nitter.hu/UAWeapons/status/1515820381013168135
F9Animal wrote:flyingturtle wrote:While the Moskva is still busy with the special submarine operation, the first images have emerged. It also shows the weather conditions after the attack.
https://nitter.hu/UAWeapons/status/1515820381013168135
For some reason that looks like a decommissioned ship. I don't see anything that really resembles the Moskva. Is this for sure?
F9Animal wrote:flyingturtle wrote:While the Moskva is still busy with the special submarine operation, the first images have emerged. It also shows the weather conditions after the attack.
https://nitter.hu/UAWeapons/status/1515820381013168135
For some reason that looks like a decommissioned ship. I don't see anything that really resembles the Moskva. Is this for sure?
flyingturtle wrote:F9Animal wrote:flyingturtle wrote:While the Moskva is still busy with the special submarine operation, the first images have emerged. It also shows the weather conditions after the attack.
https://nitter.hu/UAWeapons/status/1515820381013168135
For some reason that looks like a decommissioned ship. I don't see anything that really resembles the Moskva. Is this for sure?
You can make out all the distinctive features of a Slava-class cruiser. Especially, the four slanted sets of P-500 or P-1000 hypersonic cruise missile launchers can be seen in the smoke.
GDB wrote:The missile can reportedly reach Mach 3, so strictly speaking not hypersonic. We should be wary of all that PR and threat videos put out by Russia prior to the conflict. They have the weapon deployed from a modified MiG-31 but how many? Considering they’ve been caught out with low stocks of basic PGMs.
While the issue of these systems needs addressing and clearly in recent years much more effort in these had been taking place in Russia, if sanctions are badly disrupting their ability to make tanks what about these expensive and exotic weapons?
Buckeyetech wrote:With the appearance of Russian heavy bombers in the fight over eastern Ukraine, are they out of range for the E-3s that are flying right along the border on the western side? Nice pic in the link provided, of the tracks NATO surveillance aircraft have been flying.
https://i.redd.it/w2r20qdcp6u81.jpg
Buckeyetech wrote:With the appearance of Russian heavy bombers in the fight over eastern Ukraine, are they out of range for the E-3s that are flying right along the border on the western side? Nice pic in the link provided, of the tracks NATO surveillance aircraft have been flying.
https://i.redd.it/w2r20qdcp6u81.jpg
Buckeyetech wrote:Is the G550 the Italian AISREW?With the appearance of Russian heavy bombers in the fight over eastern Ukraine, are they out of range for the E-3s that are flying right along the border on the western side? Nice pic in the link provided, of the tracks NATO surveillance aircraft have been flying.
https://i.redd.it/w2r20qdcp6u81.jpg
flyingturtle wrote:F9Animal wrote:flyingturtle wrote:While the Moskva is still busy with the special submarine operation, the first images have emerged. It also shows the weather conditions after the attack.
https://nitter.hu/UAWeapons/status/1515820381013168135
For some reason that looks like a decommissioned ship. I don't see anything that really resembles the Moskva. Is this for sure?
You can make out all the distinctive features of a Slava-class cruiser. Especially, the four slanted sets of P-500 or P-1000 hypersonic cruise missile launchers can be seen in the smoke.
F9Animal wrote:
Yep!! You are right! That must have been a "bad accident." Any reports on casualties?
flyingturtle wrote:What always wondered me is that (subjectively I must admit) on a lot of Russian air bases you see a lot of aircraft like fighters or bombers lined up. I would have thought they would mostly be in hangars (well the fighters at least).In other news, Google Maps now shows all Russian military facilities without pixelation. If you have a tractor and if you're in need of an ICBM...
https://censor.net/en/news/3334945/sate ... aps_photos
flyingturtle wrote:It's reported that a Slava-class cruiser has about 500 personnel on board. This ceremony apparently shows rescued seamen of the "Moskva" - which are a lot less than 500. I wonder...
ReverseFlow wrote:That always wondered me is that (subjectively I must admit) on a lot of Russian air bases you see a lot of aircraft like fighters or bombers lined up. I would have thought they would mostly be in hangars (well the fighters at least).
As if you compare it to air bases in the UK, Germany etc you'd be lucky to spot an aircraft on Google Maps.
flyingturtle wrote:F9Animal wrote:flyingturtle wrote:While the Moskva is still busy with the special submarine operation, the first images have emerged. It also shows the weather conditions after the attack.
https://nitter.hu/UAWeapons/status/1515820381013168135
For some reason that looks like a decommissioned ship. I don't see anything that really resembles the Moskva. Is this for sure?
You can make out all the distinctive features of a Slava-class cruiser. Especially, the four slanted sets of P-500 or P-1000 hypersonic cruise missile launchers can be seen in the smoke.
flyingturtle wrote:In other news, Google Maps now shows all Russian military facilities without pixelation. If you have a tractor and if you're in need of an ICBM...
https://censor.net/en/news/3334945/sate ... aps_photos
LMP737 wrote:Here they reckon those hoses are from a sea rescue tug behind it.flyingturtle wrote:F9Animal wrote:
For some reason that looks like a decommissioned ship. I don't see anything that really resembles the Moskva. Is this for sure?
You can make out all the distinctive features of a Slava-class cruiser. Especially, the four slanted sets of P-500 or P-1000 hypersonic cruise missile launchers can be seen in the smoke.
I noticed two fire hoses operational near the illumination radar on aft part of the ship. They must have had power available, guessing an emergency generator.
ReverseFlow wrote:LMP737 wrote:Here they reckon those hoses are from a sea rescue tug behind it.flyingturtle wrote:
You can make out all the distinctive features of a Slava-class cruiser. Especially, the four slanted sets of P-500 or P-1000 hypersonic cruise missile launchers can be seen in the smoke.
I noticed two fire hoses operational near the illumination radar on aft part of the ship. They must have had power available, guessing an emergency generator.
https://mobile.twitter.com/vcdgf555/sta ... fied-image
@PentagonPresSec said just now Ukraine "have received additional aircraft and the aircraft parts to help them get more more aircraft in the air" recently
Buckeyetech wrote:With the appearance of Russian heavy bombers in the fight over eastern Ukraine, are they out of range for the E-3s that are flying right along the border on the western side? Nice pic in the link provided, of the tracks NATO surveillance aircraft have been flying.
mxaxai wrote:Buckeyetech wrote:With the appearance of Russian heavy bombers in the fight over eastern Ukraine, are they out of range for the E-3s that are flying right along the border on the western side? Nice pic in the link provided, of the tracks NATO surveillance aircraft have been flying.
Eastern Ukraine is out of range. Ukraine is more than 1200 km wide, while the E-3 has a published detection range of 375 km. Even if they're grossly understating the capabilities, you would need an over-the-horizon radar to track aircraft near Mariupol (which I doubt the E-3 has).
Not sure how close Russia is letting anybody over the Black Sea, as this is international airspace.
I think the SigInt aircraft are providing more useful data currently, although the AWACS can still give ample warning time in case of attacks on western Ukraine.
Phosphorus wrote:AWACS orbiting in the middle of the Black Sea could see somewhat further into East and South Ukraine, than from orbiting over Poland or Slovakia...
william wrote:Because this has never happened in the past.
What happens to weapons sent to Ukraine? The US doesn't really know
https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/19/politics ... index.html
"And so far, it appears that Russia has struggled to intercept or destroy the supply shipments. A third source familiar with the intelligence said that it does not appear that Russia has been actively attacking western weapons shipments entering Ukraine -- although it is unclear exactly why, especially since the US has intelligence that the Russians want to and have discussed doing so both publicly and privately.
There are a number of theories for why the shipments have so far been spared, this person added, including that Russian forces simply can't find them -- the weapons and equipment are being sent over in unmarked vehicles and often transported at night. It could also be that the Russian forces are running out of munitions and don't want to waste them targeting random trucks unless they can be certain they are part of an arms convoy."
I don't believe that source for a second. Surprised the Russian and US spy satellites are not bumping into each other parked over Ukraine.
Phosphorus wrote:mxaxai wrote:Buckeyetech wrote:With the appearance of Russian heavy bombers in the fight over eastern Ukraine, are they out of range for the E-3s that are flying right along the border on the western side? Nice pic in the link provided, of the tracks NATO surveillance aircraft have been flying.
Eastern Ukraine is out of range. Ukraine is more than 1200 km wide, while the E-3 has a published detection range of 375 km. Even if they're grossly understating the capabilities, you would need an over-the-horizon radar to track aircraft near Mariupol (which I doubt the E-3 has).
Not sure how close Russia is letting anybody over the Black Sea, as this is international airspace.
I think the SigInt aircraft are providing more useful data currently, although the AWACS can still give ample warning time in case of attacks on western Ukraine.
Just to understand -- where does the "war zone" begin for NATO aircraft in the Black Sea? Sinop to Mariupol is 320 nm, according to GCMap.
AWACS orbiting in the middle of the Black Sea could see somewhat further into East and South Ukraine, than from orbiting over Poland or Slovakia...
LyleLanley wrote:william wrote:Ukraine is a relatively small country, but still large enough that a soda-straw satellite won't have synoptic coverage.
LyleLanley wrote:william wrote:Because this has never happened in the past.
What happens to weapons sent to Ukraine? The US doesn't really know
https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/19/politics ... index.html
"And so far, it appears that Russia has struggled to intercept or destroy the supply shipments. A third source familiar with the intelligence said that it does not appear that Russia has been actively attacking western weapons shipments entering Ukraine -- although it is unclear exactly why, especially since the US has intelligence that the Russians want to and have discussed doing so both publicly and privately.
There are a number of theories for why the shipments have so far been spared, this person added, including that Russian forces simply can't find them -- the weapons and equipment are being sent over in unmarked vehicles and often transported at night. It could also be that the Russian forces are running out of munitions and don't want to waste them targeting random trucks unless they can be certain they are part of an arms convoy."
I don't believe that source for a second. Surprised the Russian and US spy satellites are not bumping into each other parked over Ukraine.
Uhh... You do know that spy satellites aren't in geostationary orbit, right?
1. Russia doesn't have that many imagery/radar satellites left.
2. Ukraine is a relatively small country, but still large enough that a soda-straw satellite won't have synoptic coverage. Assuming the orbits line up.
3. Russia's imagery analysis sucks. They do not have the types of intel tools like the US has which can quickly parse through reams of data or pictures and see the differences. Especially in non-fixed target areas like airfields, shipyards, etc.
4. The analysis they can give takes time to form a coherent product, and by the time their kill-chain is in a position to do something about it, the convoy (or better termed "gaggle of a couple trucks") is in a different position.
What they really need is something like a J-STARS or RC-135 that can see far, process quickly, and communicate to ground and/or air forces in order to direct fires. But that takes money, and, more importantly, training to develop. Good luck with that.
Vintage wrote:Ukraine is huge, it is the largest country in Europe (Russia has been demoted to a west Asian country).From the Polish border near Rzeszow, it is 700 miles east to west.
william wrote:Yes, I know that................I should have used a sarcasm emoji.
TheSonntag wrote:In 1997, I talked with a german fighter pilot who flew both the F4 and the Mig 29. He was not really Impressed with the Mig29, especially the radar..
Francoflier wrote:An influx of spare parts has allowed them to return 20 aircraft to service, although we don't know which type(s)..
tommy1808 wrote:Could be helicopters as well.Francoflier wrote:An influx of spare parts has allowed them to return 20 aircraft to service, although we don't know which type(s)..
Mig-29 and Su-25 are the only options, not many Su-27 spareparts to be had in the west.
petertenthije wrote:tommy1808 wrote:Could be helicopters as well.Francoflier wrote:An influx of spare parts has allowed them to return 20 aircraft to service, although we don't know which type(s)..
Mig-29 and Su-25 are the only options, not many Su-27 spareparts to be had in the west.
LyleLanley wrote:Russia doesn't have that many imagery/radar satellites left. (...) Russia's imagery analysis sucks.
BaconButty wrote:I've been following this list of verified destroyed/damaged/captured equipment for a while now like I'm sure many of you. Took a deeper look at aircraft losses, specifically helicopters, and was actually surprised by what I saw.
As of now there are 32 losses, of which destroyed: 28, damaged: 2, abandoned: 1, captured: 1. Looked at all of them, and broke them down, particularly with a view to seeing how the thousands of heat seeking manpads have been performing. So I reckon, of those 32, 12 were destroyed on the ground (mostly at Kherson), another 7 were not brought down by IR Manpads - various reasons, not being shot down at all, being bought down by sumething else, even an atgm! That only left 13 candidates, some of which will be mechanical failures, other SAM's, anti aircraft guns self propelled or otherwise, even small arms fire and RPGs. I'd say it's odds on that in 6 weeks of fighting, the number of helicopters bought down by heat seeking manpads is in single figures, and there's no candidates later than 17th March! I know that list only has visually confirmed losses, but it seems unlikely to me that there will be many helicopters actually shot down without footage of either the event or the wreckage.
Given the amount of these weapons either already in Ukraine, or donated, that seems a paltry return. Given the way the Russians are now using attack helicopters as top cover for convoys in the east, and so deterring the kind of ambushes that worked so well in the north, that concerns me. A few questions:
1. Why? Is it because the Russians have recently installed countermeasures on their helicopters? How they are being deployed? Simple to be expected?
2. Does this mean heat seeking missiles are obselete against a near peer enemy now?
3. What can be done? Starstreak can't be bought in in sufficient numbers - of fire control units at least.
The SBU claimed that the equipment found at this storage was stolen earlier from military arsenals. And on the eve of a full-scale invasion, the owners of the warehouse were going to cooperate with the occupying forces and provide equipment for the needs of the enemy.
tomcat wrote:Coming back to your valid questions. Today (April 21), the manpads had a good harvest again: 2 helicopters and 2 or 3 aircraft shot down (of which one seen on video, falling from at least a medium altitude, so not maybe a manpad hit). I've noticed that the sky was mostly clear and that made me wonder if in case of low ceiling, there were just less opportunities for manpads. I would see 2 reasons for this. First, the low ceiling prevents some of the airborne operations and second, manpads operators need to see their target before shooting at it hence a reduced visibility would be reducing the chances to engage a target. Could this partly explain the erratic statistics of helicopters and aircraft shot down?