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mig21umd
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Posts: 326
Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2005 6:30 pm

Serbia and the Rafale?

Tue Apr 12, 2022 1:46 pm

Serbia has been busy modernising its military recently and in doing so they are buying more sophisticated equipment from different sources and countries around the world including anti-aircraft systems from both France and China, drones from China and Turkey, tanks and armored vehicles from Russia and they have just this week announced their intentions of buying up to 24 new built Rafale's again from France.

How easy would it be for Serbia, in light of recent events to get their hands on Rafales?

Interesting Croatia recently committed to 12 second hand Rafale's F3-R to finally replace their ageing Mig-21s with deliveries expected to start in 2023.

I wonder how much Serbia announcing their intention to buy 24 Rafale is reactionary to the Croatian purchase? Is it realistic as Serbia is seen as one of the only remaining Russian allies (apart from Belarus) in Europe? Will Croatia voice any type of protest to France if this deal looks to go ahead and will France listen?

Moving away from buying Russian aircraft could be a way for Serbia to continue to try to play both East and West sides but it is still a very surprising move and raises an interesting question of intent?. Vucic (Serbian President) seems to be a bit of a micro manager when it comes to all things in Serbia especially when it comes to buying military equipment and he usually makes many comparable remarks to Croatia when he talks about how he is improving Serbia's economy, and military.

So is the Rafale announcement by Serbia a complete reaction to the Croatian purchase? Does it seem realistic? Does it raise legitimate concerns for Croatia as a platform they can continue to rely on if the aircraft are also sold to Serbia? What would Serbia have to do politically to have this approved by the French government?

https://www.news.com.au/technology/inno ... d38fe25501

https://www.dailysabah.com/business/def ... ones-vucic
 
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Kiwirob
Posts: 14168
Joined: Mon Jun 13, 2005 2:16 pm

Re: Serbia and the Rafale?

Tue Apr 12, 2022 5:22 pm

Why would Serbia need to do anything politically to buy them. The French aren’t all that fussy, look at who they sell to? They also want to buy more than Croatia has.
 
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N328KF
Posts: 6102
Joined: Tue May 25, 2004 3:50 am

Re: Serbia and the Rafale?

Tue Apr 12, 2022 9:30 pm

Kiwirob wrote:
Why would Serbia need to do anything politically to buy them. The French aren’t all that fussy, look at who they sell to? They also want to buy more than Croatia has.


Serbia needs to get past its pro-Russian pro-genocide past. No mincing words here.
 
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Kiwirob
Posts: 14168
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Re: Serbia and the Rafale?

Wed Apr 13, 2022 5:47 am

N328KF wrote:
Kiwirob wrote:
Why would Serbia need to do anything politically to buy them. The French aren’t all that fussy, look at who they sell to? They also want to buy more than Croatia has.


Serbia needs to get past its pro-Russian pro-genocide past. No mincing words here.


And you think that bothers the French? Look at the list of customers for French military equipment.
 
mig21umd
Topic Author
Posts: 326
Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2005 6:30 pm

Re: Serbia and the Rafale?

Wed Apr 13, 2022 6:59 am

Kiwirob wrote:
N328KF wrote:
Kiwirob wrote:
Why would Serbia need to do anything politically to buy them. The French aren’t all that fussy, look at who they sell to? They also want to buy more than Croatia has.


Serbia needs to get past its pro-Russian pro-genocide past. No mincing words here.


And you think that bothers the French? Look at the list of customers for French military equipment.


Not recognising Kosovo might be a reason the sale could be blocked by the French government so Vucic will just use this as an excuse to continue to strengthen Serbia's military cooperation with China, Russia and now maybe Turkey too.

It is just an interesting announcement because Serbia must know there is little chance they could buy any 4+ gen western aircraft at this time so it makes you wonder about the politics behind the announcement.
 
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Kiwirob
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Re: Serbia and the Rafale?

Wed Apr 13, 2022 8:08 am

So far the French have sold Serbia Mistral MANPADS, Gazelle helicopters, Spain has sold them C-295's, Germany has sold them H145 Helicopters, Sweden has sold them Bofors 40mm canons.

France has sold Rafael to Qatar and Indonesia who don't recognise Israel. They also have Rafael sales campaigns in Malaysia, Iraq, Saudi Arabia and possibly Bangladesh who don't recognise Israel. If they will sell to countries who don't recognise Israel selling to a country who doesn't recognise Kosovo isn't that big an issue.
 
blandy62
Posts: 496
Joined: Tue Jul 12, 2016 12:47 am

Re: Serbia and the Rafale?

Wed Apr 13, 2022 9:29 am

Kiwirob wrote:
N328KF wrote:
Kiwirob wrote:
Why would Serbia need to do anything politically to buy them. The French aren’t all that fussy, look at who they sell to? They also want to buy more than Croatia has.


Serbia needs to get past its pro-Russian pro-genocide past. No mincing words here.


And you think that bothers the French? Look at the list of customers for French military equipment.


who do the American sell military equipment to, who doe the British sell military equipment to and the list goes on and on...
 
AirbusCheerlead
Posts: 190
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2010 4:20 pm

Re: Serbia and the Rafale?

Wed Apr 13, 2022 9:38 am

I think serbian support of Russia is overblown here: Serbia for example voted against Russia on both UN resolutions (immediate withdraw from Ukraine and suspension from UN Human Rights Council).

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_ ... bstentions.
https://news.un.org/en/story/2022/04/1115782
 
tphuang
Posts: 7168
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: Serbia and the Rafale?

Fri Apr 15, 2022 6:52 am

I think there are geopolitical reasons for why Serbia would be interested in rafale. If you consider the operating cost and the likely cost on upgrading the used rafale, it might still work out to be too costly for Serbia. We will see.
 
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Kiwirob
Posts: 14168
Joined: Mon Jun 13, 2005 2:16 pm

Re: Serbia and the Rafale?

Fri Apr 15, 2022 9:08 am

blandy62 wrote:
Kiwirob wrote:
N328KF wrote:

Serbia needs to get past its pro-Russian pro-genocide past. No mincing words here.


And you think that bothers the French? Look at the list of customers for French military equipment.


who do the American sell military equipment to, who doe the British sell military equipment to and the list goes on and on...


Exactly my point, bravo!
 
BEG2IAH
Posts: 1157
Joined: Thu Apr 22, 2004 3:42 pm

Re: Serbia and the Rafale?

Fri Apr 15, 2022 7:07 pm

tphuang wrote:
I think there are geopolitical reasons for why Serbia would be interested in rafale. If you consider the operating cost and the likely cost on upgrading the used rafale, it might still work out to be too costly for Serbia. We will see.


Serbia has been making major geopolitical mistakes for decades. Even Milosevic tried to buy 8 Airbus A319s for JAT before the Rambouillet "peace" conference and that didn't help him. I think current Serbian president is trying something similar.
 
mig21umd
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Posts: 326
Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2005 6:30 pm

Re: Serbia and the Rafale?

Fri Apr 22, 2022 7:34 am

Serbia is now also looking at the Typhoon too with some suggesting they could look to buy a squadron of each plus another dedicated ground attack/advance trainer type.

In recent times, running many different platforms by a small country is a very expensive undertaking so I would suggest there is a lot of politics involved with Serbia and these announcements, maybe trying to, as suggested before, look like they want to cozy up to the west.

There was a report that Dassault has started negotiations and that the Serbs want a type that can fire the Strom Shadow air to air missile which has a range of 300km.

Will be interesting to see how all this plays out. I still believe Serbia would have to make a pretty drastic change in its foreign policy to see plus 4 generation western aircraft operated by its air force. Vucic (Serbian President) seems to like his toys but also like to play games too so I wouldn't be surprised if he is using these announcement to try to bait the west into allowing Serbia to continue having EU aspirations but at the same time, maintaining friendly China and Russia relations but there are also reports of increased pressure on Serbia to completely ally with the west against Russia

Croatia is another interesting factor in all this too. Announcing the 12 Rafales last year was seen as a way to counter Serbia's attempted military rise in the region. I would suggest Croatia would be a bit annoyed at France if the deal is approved and I wonder if they are voicing some sort of protest or if they have a position at all on the matter?

https://eurasiantimes.com/serbia-intere ... -typhoons/
 
mxaxai
Posts: 3213
Joined: Sat Jun 18, 2016 7:29 am

Re: Serbia and the Rafale?

Fri Apr 22, 2022 8:51 am

mig21umd wrote:
There was a report that Dassault has started negotiations and that the Serbs want a type that can fire the Strom Shadow air to air missile which has a range of 300km.

Minor correction, the Storm Shadow is a cruise missile. A2A I assume Serbia would want the Meteor. Both weapons can be equipped on either Rafale or Eurofighter.

For other smaller European countries, like the Netherlands and Belgium, I expect the fleet commonality with neighbors to be important. But for Serbia, I could see them choose the EF just to spite Croatia.

Next, we might see Bosnia buy a bunch of Gripen, Montenegro procure used F-16 and of course Slovenia with an order for F-15. This opens up an opportunity for Albanian Rafales, seeing as they don't share a border with Croatia, and Macedonian F-18, who, again, would rather not operate the same aircraft as their beloved neighbor Greece. The collection is finally completed by Kosovo getting hand-me-down F-35 once FCAS enters service. /s
 
Vintage
Posts: 482
Joined: Tue Mar 15, 2022 10:48 pm

Re: Serbia and the Rafale?

Fri Apr 22, 2022 8:58 am

I don't understand any of this talk, Serbia is in Russia's orbit.
I think there should be an EU policy against shipping them sharp knives, let alone fighter planes.
 
kelval
Posts: 131
Joined: Tue Mar 06, 2012 2:09 pm

Re: Serbia and the Rafale?

Fri Apr 22, 2022 10:05 am

Let's be honest, I'm not even sure they can afford any.
Them talking about having both Rafale and Eurofighter, two overlapping planes, is just crazy.

Plus, as they are indeed pro russian, I doubt they will get anything in the end.

EDIT: plus it's serbia claiming they want this and that, not Dassault or Airbus saying they are in negociations. Wich gives a whole different meaning to this.
 
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kitplane01
Posts: 2478
Joined: Thu Jun 16, 2016 5:58 am

Re: Serbia and the Rafale?

Tue Apr 26, 2022 4:34 am

mig21umd wrote:
Serbia has been busy modernising its military recently and in doing so they are buying more sophisticated equipment from different sources and countries around the world including anti-aircraft systems from both France and China, drones from China and Turkey, tanks and armored vehicles from Russia and they have just this week announced their intentions of buying up to 24 new built Rafale's again from France.

How easy would it be for Serbia, in light of recent events to get their hands on Rafales?

Interesting Croatia recently committed to 12 second hand Rafale's F3-R to finally replace their ageing Mig-21s with deliveries expected to start in 2023.

I wonder how much Serbia announcing their intention to buy 24 Rafale is reactionary to the Croatian purchase? Is it realistic as Serbia is seen as one of the only remaining Russian allies (apart from Belarus) in Europe? Will Croatia voice any type of protest to France if this deal looks to go ahead and will France listen?

Moving away from buying Russian aircraft could be a way for Serbia to continue to try to play both East and West sides but it is still a very surprising move and raises an interesting question of intent?. Vucic (Serbian President) seems to be a bit of a micro manager when it comes to all things in Serbia especially when it comes to buying military equipment and he usually makes many comparable remarks to Croatia when he talks about how he is improving Serbia's economy, and military.

So is the Rafale announcement by Serbia a complete reaction to the Croatian purchase? Does it seem realistic? Does it raise legitimate concerns for Croatia as a platform they can continue to rely on if the aircraft are also sold to Serbia? What would Serbia have to do politically to have this approved by the French government?

https://www.news.com.au/technology/inno ... d38fe25501

https://www.dailysabah.com/business/def ... ones-vucic


Any full scale, jet fighter war between Serbia and Croatia will be decided in a very nicely decorated room in Brussels. With no Serbians or Croats in the room. Before day three.

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