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kitplane01
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Future of the Turkish Air Force

Thu Aug 11, 2022 6:59 am

Right now Turkey has 48 upgraded F-4s and 245 F-16C/D. None of this is what the kids call "modern".

Turkey wanted F-35s, was approved for F-35s, and then un-approved because they bought Russian missiles.

Turkey has requested 40 new F-16s and 80 F-16 upgrade kits. The white house has unofficially said sort-of-yes, but Congress might stop the sale (or not, but 50 congress people have have written they are opposed, and Congress has not even been notified yet). It's a belief by some that Germany will stop the sale of Typhoons (or not, no official statement yet).

Russian planes are not a reasonable option. It would infuriate all of NATO, and presumably all Russian planes are headed to the Russian air force because of the war.

So the choices are

F-16 - fits with current fleet, reasonable cost, might not be politically possible, moderate performance, good delivery schedule

Typhoon - Very expensive to buy and operate, might not be politically possible, great performance

Rafale -- Very expensive to buy and operate, great performance, probably not available on a reasonable schedule

Chinese J-10 -- Super cheap, moderate performance, good delivery schedule, unknown quality of technical support

Pakistani/Chinese JF-17 -- Very Super cheap, not the same level of performance as the planes above, maybe slow delivery, unknown quality of technical support

Korean FA-50 -- Maybe not possible (American engine), very Super cheap, not the same level of performance as the planes above, maybe fast delivery

Indian Tejas -- Maybe not possible (American engine), not the same level of performance as the planes above, maybe slow delivery

So two separate questions: (1) Which will Turkey get and (2) What would you pick?
 
johns624
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Re: Future of the Turkish Air Force

Thu Aug 11, 2022 12:11 pm

If the US is willing to sell them F16s, why would they stop the sale of other planes just because of US engines?
On a sidenote, I wonder if any Western eyes have checked out the Turkish S400 SAMs? Maybe they are giving the Ukes information on their capabilities.
 
LTEN11
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Re: Future of the Turkish Air Force

Thu Aug 11, 2022 12:26 pm

The best chance for the Turkish Air Force to get new Western aircraft is a change of government.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Future of the Turkish Air Force

Thu Aug 11, 2022 1:46 pm

kitplane01 wrote:
Right now Turkey has 48 upgraded F-4s and 245 F-16C/D. None of this is what the kids call "modern".

Turkey wanted F-35s, was approved for F-35s, and then un-approved because they bought Russian missiles.

Turkey has requested 40 new F-16s and 80 F-16 upgrade kits. The white house has unofficially said sort-of-yes, but Congress might stop the sale (or not, but 50 congress people have have written they are opposed, and Congress has not even been notified yet). It's a belief by some that Germany will stop the sale of Typhoons (or not, no official statement yet).

Russian planes are not a reasonable option. It would infuriate all of NATO, and presumably all Russian planes are headed to the Russian air force because of the war.

So the choices are

F-16 - fits with current fleet, reasonable cost, might not be politically possible, moderate performance, good delivery schedule

Typhoon - Very expensive to buy and operate, might not be politically possible, great performance

Rafale -- Very expensive to buy and operate, great performance, probably not available on a reasonable schedule

Chinese J-10 -- Super cheap, moderate performance, good delivery schedule, unknown quality of technical support

Pakistani/Chinese JF-17 -- Very Super cheap, not the same level of performance as the planes above, maybe slow delivery, unknown quality of technical support

Korean FA-50 -- Maybe not possible (American engine), very Super cheap, not the same level of performance as the planes above, maybe fast delivery

Indian Tejas -- Maybe not possible (American engine), not the same level of performance as the planes above, maybe slow delivery

So two separate questions: (1) Which will Turkey get and (2) What would you pick?


Turkey will get the 40 new F-16's and 80 upgrades, in return Sweden and Finland will become new NATO-members.
 
johns624
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Re: Future of the Turkish Air Force

Thu Aug 11, 2022 3:06 pm

Dutchy wrote:
kitplane01 wrote:
Right now Turkey has 48 upgraded F-4s and 245 F-16C/D. None of this is what the kids call "modern".

Turkey wanted F-35s, was approved for F-35s, and then un-approved because they bought Russian missiles.

Turkey has requested 40 new F-16s and 80 F-16 upgrade kits. The white house has unofficially said sort-of-yes, but Congress might stop the sale (or not, but 50 congress people have have written they are opposed, and Congress has not even been notified yet). It's a belief by some that Germany will stop the sale of Typhoons (or not, no official statement yet).

Russian planes are not a reasonable option. It would infuriate all of NATO, and presumably all Russian planes are headed to the Russian air force because of the war.

So the choices are

F-16 - fits with current fleet, reasonable cost, might not be politically possible, moderate performance, good delivery schedule

Typhoon - Very expensive to buy and operate, might not be politically possible, great performance

Rafale -- Very expensive to buy and operate, great performance, probably not available on a reasonable schedule

Chinese J-10 -- Super cheap, moderate performance, good delivery schedule, unknown quality of technical support

Pakistani/Chinese JF-17 -- Very Super cheap, not the same level of performance as the planes above, maybe slow delivery, unknown quality of technical support

Korean FA-50 -- Maybe not possible (American engine), very Super cheap, not the same level of performance as the planes above, maybe fast delivery

Indian Tejas -- Maybe not possible (American engine), not the same level of performance as the planes above, maybe slow delivery

So two separate questions: (1) Which will Turkey get and (2) What would you pick?


Turkey will get the 40 new F-16's and 80 upgrades, in return Sweden and Finland will become new NATO-members.
I agree. You can't just freeze them out or you'll lose them. You just don't sell them the newest toys.
 
ReverseFlow
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Re: Future of the Turkish Air Force

Thu Aug 11, 2022 4:30 pm

I guess from 2030ish there will be the TF-X

https://www.tusas.com/en/products/new-p ... lopment/tf

Interesting who was all named in the past as partners.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TAI_TF-X
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Future of the Turkish Air Force

Thu Aug 11, 2022 6:45 pm

ReverseFlow wrote:
I guess from 2030ish there will be the TF-X

https://www.tusas.com/en/products/new-p ... lopment/tf

Interesting who was all named in the past as partners.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TAI_TF-X


I totally missed that they have partnered up with Pakistan in February this year.

I guess we will have to wait till March 23, 2023, when it is supposed to be unveiled.
 
texl1649
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Re: Future of the Turkish Air Force

Thu Aug 11, 2022 10:02 pm

Realistically, Turkey faces some massive budget problems.

Practically, I could see them going all in on a new fleet/type from either Russia, or even China.

The F-4’s have to be really tired right now. IAI did much of the upgrades on those 30 and 15 years ago, right?

https://www.aviationreportglobal.com/20 ... ntom-2020/

Yes, it is a bizarre thought given the past 10 years but such is the world of Middle East/politics that perhaps the Israeli’s could help upgrade/SLEP some of the Turkish F-16s?
 
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kitplane01
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Re: Future of the Turkish Air Force

Fri Aug 12, 2022 2:28 am

Dutchy wrote:
kitplane01 wrote:
Right now Turkey has 48 upgraded F-4s and 245 F-16C/D. None of this is what the kids call "modern".

Turkey wanted F-35s, was approved for F-35s, and then un-approved because they bought Russian missiles.

Turkey has requested 40 new F-16s and 80 F-16 upgrade kits. The white house has unofficially said sort-of-yes, but Congress might stop the sale (or not, but 50 congress people have have written they are opposed, and Congress has not even been notified yet). It's a belief by some that Germany will stop the sale of Typhoons (or not, no official statement yet).

Russian planes are not a reasonable option. It would infuriate all of NATO, and presumably all Russian planes are headed to the Russian air force because of the war.

So the choices are

F-16 - fits with current fleet, reasonable cost, might not be politically possible, moderate performance, good delivery schedule

Typhoon - Very expensive to buy and operate, might not be politically possible, great performance

Rafale -- Very expensive to buy and operate, great performance, probably not available on a reasonable schedule

Chinese J-10 -- Super cheap, moderate performance, good delivery schedule, unknown quality of technical support

Pakistani/Chinese JF-17 -- Very Super cheap, not the same level of performance as the planes above, maybe slow delivery, unknown quality of technical support

Korean FA-50 -- Maybe not possible (American engine), very Super cheap, not the same level of performance as the planes above, maybe fast delivery

Indian Tejas -- Maybe not possible (American engine), not the same level of performance as the planes above, maybe slow delivery

So two separate questions: (1) Which will Turkey get and (2) What would you pick?


Turkey will get the 40 new F-16's and 80 upgrades, in return Sweden and Finland will become new NATO-members.


Maybe. But Congress would have to not vote against either the F-16s or the engines, which might happen but is not obvious.

And if there is a deal that Turkey gets American military hardware in return for Swedish/Finnish membership in NATO, that's not been made public. What *has* been made public is that the two Nordic nations also agreed not to provide any support to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) in return for Trukey allowing them into NATO.
 
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LyleLanley
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Re: Future of the Turkish Air Force

Fri Aug 12, 2022 2:42 am

texl1649 wrote:
Yes, it is a bizarre thought given the past 10 years but such is the world of Middle East/politics that perhaps the Israeli’s could help upgrade/SLEP some of the Turkish F-16s?


Admittedly, I know little of middle eastern politics, but what’s the big deal about this? Didn’t Israel update Turkey’s F-4s? Don’t they train together, extensively?
 
art
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Re: Future of the Turkish Air Force

Fri Aug 12, 2022 8:18 am

Dutchy wrote:
ReverseFlow wrote:
I guess from 2030ish there will be the TF-X

https://www.tusas.com/en/products/new-p ... lopment/tf

Interesting who was all named in the past as partners.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TAI_TF-X


I totally missed that they have partnered up with Pakistan in February this year.


The announcement of teaming up with Pakistan was quickly withdrawn/retracted/corrected. Not the case. Sorry cannot find source.
 
art
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Re: Future of the Turkish Air Force

Fri Aug 12, 2022 8:59 am

Source for my post above

Pakistani partnership
On 22 Feb 2022, Temel Kotil, President and CEO of TAI gave an interview revealing that Turkey was collaborating with the Pakistan military operated National University of Science and Technology (NUST) on the project, outsourcing component design to students and researchers.[51] However, TAI later said that there was a misunderstanding and there is no Pakistani partnership currently in the project.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TAI_TF-X

TAI announcement: We are working with Pakistan on this.

Later TAI announcement: There has been a misunderstanding. We are not working with Pakistan on this.

Some misunderstanding!
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Future of the Turkish Air Force

Fri Aug 12, 2022 11:25 am

art wrote:
Source for my post above

Pakistani partnership
On 22 Feb 2022, Temel Kotil, President and CEO of TAI gave an interview revealing that Turkey was collaborating with the Pakistan military operated National University of Science and Technology (NUST) on the project, outsourcing component design to students and researchers.[51] However, TAI later said that there was a misunderstanding and there is no Pakistani partnership currently in the project.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TAI_TF-X

TAI announcement: We are working with Pakistan on this.

Later TAI announcement: There has been a misunderstanding. We are not working with Pakistan on this.

Some misunderstanding!


Indeed.
 
art
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Re: Future of the Turkish Air Force

Sun Aug 14, 2022 2:15 pm

Spotted this article from March which suggests that Eurofighter is of interest to Turkey, should new F-16 and upgrades for existing TAF F-16 be blocked by US Congress.

The U.S. suspension of Turkey’s partnership in the F-35 program has left the country with limited options, given its fleet of F-16s will be phased out in the early 2030s. A Turkish request to acquire a new fleet of F-16 Block 70 aircraft will likely face opposition from U.S. lawmakers. In the past, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan indicated his government’s interest in Russian aircraft in place of the F-35.

One stopgap option for Turkey is to buy scores of the Eurofighter Typhoon and, in return, bargain for European know-how for its own fighter program, the TF-X.

...

One Turkish procurement official, was not authorized to speak to the press, agreed that the Typhoon could be an option, potentially involving the purchase of about 80 aircraft. “These aircraft can even be assembled in Turkey, though they would then come with a bigger price tag,” he said.


https://www.defensenews.com/global/euro ... r-efforts/

PS This article was written before Turkey dropped its veto against Finland and Sweden joining NATO
 
texl1649
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Re: Future of the Turkish Air Force

Sun Aug 14, 2022 9:16 pm

The F-16’s (or rather, many of them) would seem to have a lot of life left, and a lot of countries/companies know how to upgrade them. I’d be surprised if they don’t order something newish in small quantities, but also get someone to do a SLEP/upgrade on the existing F-16 fleet.
 
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kitplane01
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Re: Future of the Turkish Air Force

Sun Aug 14, 2022 10:19 pm

texl1649 wrote:
The F-16’s (or rather, many of them) would seem to have a lot of life left, and a lot of countries/companies know how to upgrade them. I’d be surprised if they don’t order something newish in small quantities, but also get someone to do a SLEP/upgrade on the existing F-16 fleet.


They ordered 80 upgrade kits, along with 40 new F-16s. But it's not obvious that congress will allow this sale.
 
art
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Re: Future of the Turkish Air Force

Mon Aug 15, 2022 1:01 am

kitplane01 wrote:
texl1649 wrote:
The F-16’s (or rather, many of them) would seem to have a lot of life left, and a lot of countries/companies know how to upgrade them. I’d be surprised if they don’t order something newish in small quantities, but also get someone to do a SLEP/upgrade on the existing F-16 fleet.


They ordered 80 upgrade kits, along with 40 new F-16s. But it's not obvious that congress will allow this sale.


Curious... how long is it likely to take to get a yea or nay from Congress? I ask that assuming that this deal is a little contentious and will not just be rubber stamped.
 
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bikerthai
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Re: Future of the Turkish Air Force

Mon Aug 15, 2022 1:10 am

art wrote:
Curious... how long is it likely to take to get a yea or nay from Congress? I ask that assuming that this deal is a little contentious and will not just be rubber stamped.


There first must be an evaluation by various departments stating that the sale will not adversely affect US defense.

Then if there is no overriding political issue, then the Congress will ruberstamp the approval.

As for the current situation, it may be a while. The US Congress had just completed a massive bill that they have been working since Biden took office. Then they are off to vacation recesses then get ready for rhe midterm election. Not sure if they will get to it before November.

But if LM strong arm the politicians hard enough, it may happen before the end of the year.

bt
 
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kitplane01
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Re: Future of the Turkish Air Force

Tue Aug 16, 2022 5:29 am

bikerthai wrote:
art wrote:
Curious... how long is it likely to take to get a yea or nay from Congress? I ask that assuming that this deal is a little contentious and will not just be rubber stamped.


There first must be an evaluation by various departments stating that the sale will not adversely affect US defense.

Then if there is no overriding political issue, then the Congress will ruberstamp the approval.

As for the current situation, it may be a while. The US Congress had just completed a massive bill that they have been working since Biden took office. Then they are off to vacation recesses then get ready for rhe midterm election. Not sure if they will get to it before November.

But if LM strong arm the politicians hard enough, it may happen before the end of the year.

bt


I don't think that's right. I think the sale is officially approved by the executive branch, Congress then has 90 days to vote against. If there is no vote against, approval is asumed. I understand the White House will not approve a sale if they think Congresss might disapprove, because that's embarassing to both the White House and the foreign buyer.

So practically speaking, it takes as long as the White House needs to be convinced there will be no Congresional vote against, plus a pro-forma 90 days.
 
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bikerthai
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Re: Future of the Turkish Air Force

Tue Aug 16, 2022 11:45 am

You are more or less right.

The formal Congressional Notification period is 30 days (15 days for NATO (+5)), meaning that if no Congressional objection is raised prior to expiration of the 30-day period the sale may go forward.


https://www.dsca.mil/foreign-customer-g ... pens-first

bt
 
bajs11
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Re: Future of the Turkish Air Force

Wed Aug 17, 2022 6:56 pm

Dutchy wrote:
Turkey will get the 40 new F-16's and 80 upgrades, in return Sweden and Finland will become new NATO-members.


well officially its not about those F-16 blk 70
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61971858

then again they've accused journalists and critics of their president of being terrorists
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Future of the Turkish Air Force

Wed Aug 17, 2022 7:34 pm

bajs11 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
Turkey will get the 40 new F-16's and 80 upgrades, in return Sweden and Finland will become new NATO-members.


well officially its not about those F-16 blk 70
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61971858

then again they've accused journalists and critics of their president of being terrorists


Officially there is no link......
 
art
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Re: Future of the Turkish Air Force

Wed Aug 17, 2022 7:56 pm

The formal Congressional Notification period is 30 days (15 days for NATO (+5)), meaning that if no Congressional objection is raised prior to expiration of the 30-day period the sale may go forward. This does not include the time Implementing Agency and DSCA take to prepare the notification and coordinate it with the DoS.


https://www.dsca.mil/foreign-customer-g ... pens-first

So if Implementing Agency and DSCA prepared the notification and coordinated it with the DoS, I guess enough time will have now elapsed for Turkey to be approved for the F-16 deal in the absence of congressional objection.
 
bajs11
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Re: Future of the Turkish Air Force

Mon Aug 22, 2022 6:33 pm

https://www.defensenews.com/pentagon/20 ... -shipment/
Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Bob Menendez, D-N.J., has threatened to block the F-16 sale over Turkey’s continued possession of the S-400s, its violations of Greek airspace and Cypriot waters in the eastern Mediterranean, its human rights record and ongoing attacks on U.S.-backed fighters in northeast Syria.




Think they will just keep pushing it until they are kicked out of the NATO.
 
art
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Re: Future of the Turkish Air Force

Tue Aug 23, 2022 8:24 am

bajs11 wrote:
https://www.defensenews.com/pentagon/2022/08/16/us-holds-fire-on-reports-of-turkeys-second-s-400-shipment/
Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Bob Menendez, D-N.J., has threatened to block the F-16 sale over Turkey’s continued possession of the S-400s, its violations of Greek airspace and Cypriot waters in the eastern Mediterranean, its human rights record and ongoing attacks on U.S.-backed fighters in northeast Syria.


Think they will just keep pushing it until they are kicked out of the NATO.


In my opinion...

Turkey is not going to scrap S-400 at this point
Turkey is not going to stop being an authoritarian regime and change to one respecting human rights
Turkey is not going to stop attacking Kurdish independence movements
If Menendez on his own can block supply of F-16 and upgrade kits, Turkey will not be getting them.

Turkey needs more fighters. Without a home-produced fighter becoming available until some time in the 2030's, what non-US fighter would suit Turkey best?
 
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kitplane01
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Re: Future of the Turkish Air Force

Wed Aug 24, 2022 1:56 am

art wrote:
bajs11 wrote:
https://www.defensenews.com/pentagon/2022/08/16/us-holds-fire-on-reports-of-turkeys-second-s-400-shipment/
Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Bob Menendez, D-N.J., has threatened to block the F-16 sale over Turkey’s continued possession of the S-400s, its violations of Greek airspace and Cypriot waters in the eastern Mediterranean, its human rights record and ongoing attacks on U.S.-backed fighters in northeast Syria.


Think they will just keep pushing it until they are kicked out of the NATO.


In my opinion...

Turkey is not going to scrap S-400 at this point
Turkey is not going to stop being an authoritarian regime and change to one respecting human rights
Turkey is not going to stop attacking Kurdish independence movements
If Menendez on his own can block supply of F-16 and upgrade kits, Turkey will not be getting them.

Turkey needs more fighters. Without a home-produced fighter becoming available until some time in the 2030's, what non-US fighter would suit Turkey best?


Assuming you're also excluding US made engines ...
The Rafale and Typhoon are the best two fighters available.
The Chinese J-10 is the best performance-and-cost fighter
The JF-17 is super cheap but low performance (and you'll need to accept an Isaeli radar)
After that there are no good choices
 
bajs11
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Re: Future of the Turkish Air Force

Wed Aug 24, 2022 9:58 am

kitplane01 wrote:
art wrote:
bajs11 wrote:
https://www.defensenews.com/pentagon/2022/08/16/us-holds-fire-on-reports-of-turkeys-second-s-400-shipment/


Think they will just keep pushing it until they are kicked out of the NATO.


In my opinion...

Turkey is not going to scrap S-400 at this point
Turkey is not going to stop being an authoritarian regime and change to one respecting human rights
Turkey is not going to stop attacking Kurdish independence movements
If Menendez on his own can block supply of F-16 and upgrade kits, Turkey will not be getting them.

Turkey needs more fighters. Without a home-produced fighter becoming available until some time in the 2030's, what non-US fighter would suit Turkey best?


Assuming you're also excluding US made engines ...
The Rafale and Typhoon are the best two fighters available.
The Chinese J-10 is the best performance-and-cost fighter
The JF-17 is super cheap but low performance (and you'll need to accept an Isaeli radar)
After that there are no good choices


The question is if the EU and the UK are more willing to sell fighters to Turkey.

https://neighbourhood-enlargement.ec.eu ... urkey-0_en
Turkey is a key strategic partner of the EU on issues such as migration, security, counter-terrorism, and the economy, but has been backsliding in the areas of democracy, rule of law and fundamental rights. In response, the General Affairs Council decided in June 2018 that accession negotiations with Turkey are effectively frozen.

It seems the only way for them to get European fighters is to use those millions of refuges as some kind of bargaining chip.

Wasn't Putin willing to sell them SU-57 or SU-35?
 
art
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Re: Future of the Turkish Air Force

Wed Aug 24, 2022 11:28 am

NATO member Turkey dropped its opposition to Finland and Sweden joining NATO. If US Congress is going to block supply of US aircraft or engines to NATO member Turkey, what has Turkey received in return?
 
art
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Re: Future of the Turkish Air Force

Wed Aug 24, 2022 12:54 pm

bajs11 wrote:
https://www.defensenews.com/pentagon/2022/08/16/us-holds-fire-on-reports-of-turkeys-second-s-400-shipment/
Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Bob Menendez, D-N.J., has threatened to block the F-16 sale over Turkey’s continued possession of the S-400s, its violations of Greek airspace and Cypriot waters in the eastern Mediterranean, its human rights record and ongoing attacks on U.S.-backed fighters in northeast Syria.


Think they will just keep pushing it until they are kicked out of the NATO.


This report lends weight to the suspicion that Turkey is becoming terra non grata to the US...

https://www.digitaljournal.com/business ... es/article

Prospects of getting an F-16 deal are fading, aren't they? As others have suggested, J-10 or Su-35 could be best options to keep the Turkish air force going until the Turkish TF-X is available some time in the mid or late 2030's.
 
LightningZ71
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Re: Future of the Turkish Air Force

Wed Aug 24, 2022 3:37 pm

I suspect that it is rapidly becoming apparent that Turkey will be buying the Rafale at some point as it will be the only worth while option. I don't see Turkey's administration wanting to be beholden to China for anything as important as fighters. France is willing to sell the Rafale to almost anyone that can write a good check. The Rafale is certainly a platform that is still in continual development. The only fly in that ointment is Greece, but, when it comes to Turkey, won't they always be?
 
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alberchico
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Re: Future of the Turkish Air Force

Wed Aug 24, 2022 3:47 pm

art wrote:
bajs11 wrote:
https://www.defensenews.com/pentagon/2022/08/16/us-holds-fire-on-reports-of-turkeys-second-s-400-shipment/
Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Bob Menendez, D-N.J., has threatened to block the F-16 sale over Turkey’s continued possession of the S-400s, its violations of Greek airspace and Cypriot waters in the eastern Mediterranean, its human rights record and ongoing attacks on U.S.-backed fighters in northeast Syria.


Think they will just keep pushing it until they are kicked out of the NATO.


In my opinion...

Turkey is not going to scrap S-400 at this point
Turkey is not going to stop being an authoritarian regime and change to one respecting human rights
Turkey is not going to stop attacking Kurdish independence movements
If Menendez on his own can block supply of F-16 and upgrade kits, Turkey will not be getting them.

Turkey needs more fighters. Without a home-produced fighter becoming available until some time in the 2030's, what non-US fighter would suit Turkey best?


I think the long term future for the Turkish Air Force involves repairing relations with the U.S. after Edrogan is gone and re-entering the F-35 program. And they need to swallow their pride and scrap the stealth fighter program that is going to suck up tremendous amounts of money and resources. But in the meantime with their economy on the brink, they are screwed.
 
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kitplane01
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Re: Future of the Turkish Air Force

Thu Aug 25, 2022 8:04 am

art wrote:
NATO member Turkey dropped its opposition to Finland and Sweden joining NATO. If US Congress is going to block supply of US aircraft or engines to NATO member Turkey, what has Turkey received in return?


Sweden and Finland have banned some Kurdish groups the Turkish government doesn't like. Not everyting is about the US .. Sweden and Finland are the ones who publically paid Turkey off.

(If you want to talk about hidden deals .. no one knows they are hidden.)
 
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kitplane01
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Re: Future of the Turkish Air Force

Thu Aug 25, 2022 8:07 am

alberchico wrote:
art wrote:
bajs11 wrote:
https://www.defensenews.com/pentagon/2022/08/16/us-holds-fire-on-reports-of-turkeys-second-s-400-shipment/


Think they will just keep pushing it until they are kicked out of the NATO.


In my opinion...

Turkey is not going to scrap S-400 at this point
Turkey is not going to stop being an authoritarian regime and change to one respecting human rights
Turkey is not going to stop attacking Kurdish independence movements
If Menendez on his own can block supply of F-16 and upgrade kits, Turkey will not be getting them.

Turkey needs more fighters. Without a home-produced fighter becoming available until some time in the 2030's, what non-US fighter would suit Turkey best?


I think the long term future for the Turkish Air Force involves repairing relations with the U.S. after Edrogan is gone and re-entering the F-35 program. And they need to swallow their pride and scrap the stealth fighter program that is going to suck up tremendous amounts of money and resources. But in the meantime with their economy on the brink, they are screwed.


Boy .. that sounds like nothing the current government is going to do.

But really, you seem to assume that Turkey will change direction once Edrogan is gone? Possible, but more likely is that popular opinion will produce an Edrogad-like successor (or maybe not).

If you're a current planner for the Turkish air focre, I don't think assuming everything will change is a good idea.

In the very long term, no one knows anything and we're all dead anyway.
 
art
Posts: 4965
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

Re: Future of the Turkish Air Force

Thu Aug 25, 2022 8:50 am

alberchico wrote:
I think the long term future for the Turkish Air Force involves repairing relations with the U.S. after Edrogan is gone and re-entering the F-35 program. And they need to swallow their pride and scrap the stealth fighter program that is going to suck up tremendous amounts of money and resources. But in the meantime with their economy on the brink, they are screwed.


I imagine that the TF-X programme is a matter of national prestige. A bit like the Tejas programme in India. KF-21 in South Korea? Don't know about that one.

If the Turkish public has been fed the line that Turkey will become the Islamic source of 5G fighters and Islamic states will fall over themselves to buy it, it may not be so easy to cancel. It is due to roll out March 2023, so it should be a long way down its development path. If Turkey can make an engine with the help of a foreign OEM and the aircraft has effective Turkish systems (AESA etc), it may be attractive to Islamic states, particularly any Islamic states denied access to F-35.
 
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kitplane01
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Re: Future of the Turkish Air Force

Thu Aug 25, 2022 6:50 pm

art wrote:
alberchico wrote:
I think the long term future for the Turkish Air Force involves repairing relations with the U.S. after Edrogan is gone and re-entering the F-35 program. And they need to swallow their pride and scrap the stealth fighter program that is going to suck up tremendous amounts of money and resources. But in the meantime with their economy on the brink, they are screwed.


I imagine that the TF-X programme is a matter of national prestige. A bit like the Tejas programme in India. KF-21 in South Korea? Don't know about that one.

If the Turkish public has been fed the line that Turkey will become the Islamic source of 5G fighters and Islamic states will fall over themselves to buy it, it may not be so easy to cancel. It is due to roll out March 2023, so it should be a long way down its development path. If Turkey can make an engine with the help of a foreign OEM and the aircraft has effective Turkish systems (AESA etc), it may be attractive to Islamic states, particularly any Islamic states denied access to F-35.


I'm not an expert, but if Turkey can make an AESA radar and medium-or-better fighter jet engine, without using controlled parts made overseas, I'm super surprised. But sometimes life does surprise me.
 
art
Posts: 4965
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

Re: Future of the Turkish Air Force

Thu Aug 25, 2022 9:27 pm

kitplane01 wrote:
art wrote:
alberchico wrote:
I think the long term future for the Turkish Air Force involves repairing relations with the U.S. after Edrogan is gone and re-entering the F-35 program. And they need to swallow their pride and scrap the stealth fighter program that is going to suck up tremendous amounts of money and resources. But in the meantime with their economy on the brink, they are screwed.


I imagine that the TF-X programme is a matter of national prestige. A bit like the Tejas programme in India. KF-21 in South Korea? Don't know about that one.

If the Turkish public has been fed the line that Turkey will become the Islamic source of 5G fighters and Islamic states will fall over themselves to buy it, it may not be so easy to cancel. It is due to roll out March 2023, so it should be a long way down its development path. If Turkey can make an engine with the help of a foreign OEM and the aircraft has effective Turkish systems (AESA etc), it may be attractive to Islamic states, particularly any Islamic states denied access to F-35.


I'm not an expert, but if Turkey can make an AESA radar and medium-or-better fighter jet engine, without using controlled parts made overseas, I'm super surprised. But sometimes life does surprise me.


Wiki
ASELSAN is currently developing an advanced active electronically scanned array radar which will use gallium nitride (GaN) technology for the TF-X program


I don't think Turkey can make a suitable engine for TF-X. The stated objective is to find a development partner (eg GE, RR) whereby the deal gives Turkey free access/control of the IP of the new engine, local engine production and no restriction on use of the engine (eg Turkey will be free to sell TF-X to any country it chooses using the new engine).

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