kitplane01 wrote:

Right now Turkey has 48 upgraded F-4s and 245 F-16C/D. None of this is what the kids call "modern".

Turkey wanted F-35s, was approved for F-35s, and then un-approved because they bought Russian missiles.

Turkey has requested 40 new F-16s and 80 F-16 upgrade kits. The white house has unofficially said sort-of-yes, but Congress might stop the sale (or not, but 50 congress people have have written they are opposed, and Congress has not even been notified yet). It's a belief by some that Germany will stop the sale of Typhoons (or not, no official statement yet).

Russian planes are not a reasonable option. It would infuriate all of NATO, and presumably all Russian planes are headed to the Russian air force because of the war.

So the choices are

F-16 - fits with current fleet, reasonable cost, might not be politically possible, moderate performance, good delivery schedule

Typhoon - Very expensive to buy and operate, might not be politically possible, great performance

Rafale -- Very expensive to buy and operate, great performance, probably not available on a reasonable schedule

Chinese J-10 -- Super cheap, moderate performance, good delivery schedule, unknown quality of technical support

Pakistani/Chinese JF-17 -- Very Super cheap, not the same level of performance as the planes above, maybe slow delivery, unknown quality of technical support

Korean FA-50 -- Maybe not possible (American engine), very Super cheap, not the same level of performance as the planes above, maybe fast delivery

Indian Tejas -- Maybe not possible (American engine), not the same level of performance as the planes above, maybe slow delivery

So two separate questions: (1) Which will Turkey get and (2) What would you pick?

Dutchy wrote:

kitplane01 wrote:

Right now Turkey has 48 upgraded F-4s and 245 F-16C/D. None of this is what the kids call "modern".

Turkey wanted F-35s, was approved for F-35s, and then un-approved because they bought Russian missiles.

Turkey has requested 40 new F-16s and 80 F-16 upgrade kits. The white house has unofficially said sort-of-yes, but Congress might stop the sale (or not, but 50 congress people have have written they are opposed, and Congress has not even been notified yet). It's a belief by some that Germany will stop the sale of Typhoons (or not, no official statement yet).

Russian planes are not a reasonable option. It would infuriate all of NATO, and presumably all Russian planes are headed to the Russian air force because of the war.

So the choices are

F-16 - fits with current fleet, reasonable cost, might not be politically possible, moderate performance, good delivery schedule

Typhoon - Very expensive to buy and operate, might not be politically possible, great performance

Rafale -- Very expensive to buy and operate, great performance, probably not available on a reasonable schedule

Chinese J-10 -- Super cheap, moderate performance, good delivery schedule, unknown quality of technical support

Pakistani/Chinese JF-17 -- Very Super cheap, not the same level of performance as the planes above, maybe slow delivery, unknown quality of technical support

Korean FA-50 -- Maybe not possible (American engine), very Super cheap, not the same level of performance as the planes above, maybe fast delivery

Indian Tejas -- Maybe not possible (American engine), not the same level of performance as the planes above, maybe slow delivery

So two separate questions: (1) Which will Turkey get and (2) What would you pick?

Turkey will get the 40 new F-16's and 80 upgrades, in return Sweden and Finland will become new NATO-members.

ReverseFlow wrote:

I guess from 2030ish there will be the TF-X

https://www.tusas.com/en/products/new-p ... lopment/tf

Interesting who was all named in the past as partners.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TAI_TF-X

Dutchy wrote:

kitplane01 wrote:

Right now Turkey has 48 upgraded F-4s and 245 F-16C/D. None of this is what the kids call "modern".

Turkey wanted F-35s, was approved for F-35s, and then un-approved because they bought Russian missiles.

Turkey has requested 40 new F-16s and 80 F-16 upgrade kits. The white house has unofficially said sort-of-yes, but Congress might stop the sale (or not, but 50 congress people have have written they are opposed, and Congress has not even been notified yet). It's a belief by some that Germany will stop the sale of Typhoons (or not, no official statement yet).

Russian planes are not a reasonable option. It would infuriate all of NATO, and presumably all Russian planes are headed to the Russian air force because of the war.

So the choices are

F-16 - fits with current fleet, reasonable cost, might not be politically possible, moderate performance, good delivery schedule

Typhoon - Very expensive to buy and operate, might not be politically possible, great performance

Rafale -- Very expensive to buy and operate, great performance, probably not available on a reasonable schedule

Chinese J-10 -- Super cheap, moderate performance, good delivery schedule, unknown quality of technical support

Pakistani/Chinese JF-17 -- Very Super cheap, not the same level of performance as the planes above, maybe slow delivery, unknown quality of technical support

Korean FA-50 -- Maybe not possible (American engine), very Super cheap, not the same level of performance as the planes above, maybe fast delivery

Indian Tejas -- Maybe not possible (American engine), not the same level of performance as the planes above, maybe slow delivery

So two separate questions: (1) Which will Turkey get and (2) What would you pick?

Turkey will get the 40 new F-16's and 80 upgrades, in return Sweden and Finland will become new NATO-members.

texl1649 wrote:

Yes, it is a bizarre thought given the past 10 years but such is the world of Middle East/politics that perhaps the Israeli’s could help upgrade/SLEP some of the Turkish F-16s?

Dutchy wrote:

ReverseFlow wrote:

I guess from 2030ish there will be the TF-X

https://www.tusas.com/en/products/new-p ... lopment/tf

Interesting who was all named in the past as partners.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TAI_TF-X

I totally missed that they have partnered up with Pakistan in February this year.

Pakistani partnership
On 22 Feb 2022, Temel Kotil, President and CEO of TAI gave an interview revealing that Turkey was collaborating with the Pakistan military operated National University of Science and Technology (NUST) on the project, outsourcing component design to students and researchers.[51] However, TAI later said that there was a misunderstanding and there is no Pakistani partnership currently in the project.

art wrote:

Source for my post above

Pakistani partnership
On 22 Feb 2022, Temel Kotil, President and CEO of TAI gave an interview revealing that Turkey was collaborating with the Pakistan military operated National University of Science and Technology (NUST) on the project, outsourcing component design to students and researchers.[51] However, TAI later said that there was a misunderstanding and there is no Pakistani partnership currently in the project.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TAI_TF-X

TAI announcement: We are working with Pakistan on this.

Later TAI announcement: There has been a misunderstanding. We are not working with Pakistan on this.

Some misunderstanding!

The U.S. suspension of Turkey’s partnership in the F-35 program has left the country with limited options, given its fleet of F-16s will be phased out in the early 2030s. A Turkish request to acquire a new fleet of F-16 Block 70 aircraft will likely face opposition from U.S. lawmakers. In the past, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan indicated his government’s interest in Russian aircraft in place of the F-35.

One stopgap option for Turkey is to buy scores of the Eurofighter Typhoon and, in return, bargain for European know-how for its own fighter program, the TF-X.

...

One Turkish procurement official, was not authorized to speak to the press, agreed that the Typhoon could be an option, potentially involving the purchase of about 80 aircraft. “These aircraft can even be assembled in Turkey, though they would then come with a bigger price tag,” he said.

texl1649 wrote:

The F-16’s (or rather, many of them) would seem to have a lot of life left, and a lot of countries/companies know how to upgrade them. I’d be surprised if they don’t order something newish in small quantities, but also get someone to do a SLEP/upgrade on the existing F-16 fleet.

kitplane01 wrote:

texl1649 wrote:

The F-16’s (or rather, many of them) would seem to have a lot of life left, and a lot of countries/companies know how to upgrade them. I’d be surprised if they don’t order something newish in small quantities, but also get someone to do a SLEP/upgrade on the existing F-16 fleet.

They ordered 80 upgrade kits, along with 40 new F-16s. But it's not obvious that congress will allow this sale.

art wrote:

Curious... how long is it likely to take to get a yea or nay from Congress? I ask that assuming that this deal is a little contentious and will not just be rubber stamped.

bikerthai wrote:

art wrote:

Curious... how long is it likely to take to get a yea or nay from Congress? I ask that assuming that this deal is a little contentious and will not just be rubber stamped.

There first must be an evaluation by various departments stating that the sale will not adversely affect US defense.

Then if there is no overriding political issue, then the Congress will ruberstamp the approval.

As for the current situation, it may be a while. The US Congress had just completed a massive bill that they have been working since Biden took office. Then they are off to vacation recesses then get ready for rhe midterm election. Not sure if they will get to it before November.

But if LM strong arm the politicians hard enough, it may happen before the end of the year.

bt

The formal Congressional Notification period is 30 days (15 days for NATO (+5)), meaning that if no Congressional objection is raised prior to expiration of the 30-day period the sale may go forward.

Dutchy wrote:

Turkey will get the 40 new F-16's and 80 upgrades, in return Sweden and Finland will become new NATO-members.

bajs11 wrote:

Dutchy wrote:

Turkey will get the 40 new F-16's and 80 upgrades, in return Sweden and Finland will become new NATO-members.

well officially its not about those F-16 blk 70
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61971858

then again they've accused journalists and critics of their president of being terrorists

The formal Congressional Notification period is 30 days (15 days for NATO (+5)), meaning that if no Congressional objection is raised prior to expiration of the 30-day period the sale may go forward. This does not include the time Implementing Agency and DSCA take to prepare the notification and coordinate it with the DoS.

Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Bob Menendez, D-N.J., has threatened to block the F-16 sale over Turkey’s continued possession of the S-400s, its violations of Greek airspace and Cypriot waters in the eastern Mediterranean, its human rights record and ongoing attacks on U.S.-backed fighters in northeast Syria.

bajs11 wrote:

https://www.defensenews.com/pentagon/2022/08/16/us-holds-fire-on-reports-of-turkeys-second-s-400-shipment/

Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Bob Menendez, D-N.J., has threatened to block the F-16 sale over Turkey’s continued possession of the S-400s, its violations of Greek airspace and Cypriot waters in the eastern Mediterranean, its human rights record and ongoing attacks on U.S.-backed fighters in northeast Syria.

Think they will just keep pushing it until they are kicked out of the NATO.

art wrote:

bajs11 wrote:

https://www.defensenews.com/pentagon/2022/08/16/us-holds-fire-on-reports-of-turkeys-second-s-400-shipment/

Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Bob Menendez, D-N.J., has threatened to block the F-16 sale over Turkey’s continued possession of the S-400s, its violations of Greek airspace and Cypriot waters in the eastern Mediterranean, its human rights record and ongoing attacks on U.S.-backed fighters in northeast Syria.

Think they will just keep pushing it until they are kicked out of the NATO.

In my opinion...

Turkey is not going to scrap S-400 at this point
Turkey is not going to stop being an authoritarian regime and change to one respecting human rights
Turkey is not going to stop attacking Kurdish independence movements
If Menendez on his own can block supply of F-16 and upgrade kits, Turkey will not be getting them.

Turkey needs more fighters. Without a home-produced fighter becoming available until some time in the 2030's, what non-US fighter would suit Turkey best?

kitplane01 wrote:

art wrote:

bajs11 wrote:

https://www.defensenews.com/pentagon/2022/08/16/us-holds-fire-on-reports-of-turkeys-second-s-400-shipment/


Think they will just keep pushing it until they are kicked out of the NATO.

In my opinion...

Turkey is not going to scrap S-400 at this point
Turkey is not going to stop being an authoritarian regime and change to one respecting human rights
Turkey is not going to stop attacking Kurdish independence movements
If Menendez on his own can block supply of F-16 and upgrade kits, Turkey will not be getting them.

Turkey needs more fighters. Without a home-produced fighter becoming available until some time in the 2030's, what non-US fighter would suit Turkey best?

Assuming you're also excluding US made engines ...
The Rafale and Typhoon are the best two fighters available.
The Chinese J-10 is the best performance-and-cost fighter
The JF-17 is super cheap but low performance (and you'll need to accept an Isaeli radar)
After that there are no good choices

Turkey is a key strategic partner of the EU on issues such as migration, security, counter-terrorism, and the economy, but has been backsliding in the areas of democracy, rule of law and fundamental rights. In response, the General Affairs Council decided in June 2018 that accession negotiations with Turkey are effectively frozen.

bajs11 wrote:

https://www.defensenews.com/pentagon/2022/08/16/us-holds-fire-on-reports-of-turkeys-second-s-400-shipment/

Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Bob Menendez, D-N.J., has threatened to block the F-16 sale over Turkey’s continued possession of the S-400s, its violations of Greek airspace and Cypriot waters in the eastern Mediterranean, its human rights record and ongoing attacks on U.S.-backed fighters in northeast Syria.

Think they will just keep pushing it until they are kicked out of the NATO.

art wrote:

bajs11 wrote:

https://www.defensenews.com/pentagon/2022/08/16/us-holds-fire-on-reports-of-turkeys-second-s-400-shipment/

Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Bob Menendez, D-N.J., has threatened to block the F-16 sale over Turkey’s continued possession of the S-400s, its violations of Greek airspace and Cypriot waters in the eastern Mediterranean, its human rights record and ongoing attacks on U.S.-backed fighters in northeast Syria.

Think they will just keep pushing it until they are kicked out of the NATO.

In my opinion...

Turkey is not going to scrap S-400 at this point
Turkey is not going to stop being an authoritarian regime and change to one respecting human rights
Turkey is not going to stop attacking Kurdish independence movements
If Menendez on his own can block supply of F-16 and upgrade kits, Turkey will not be getting them.

Turkey needs more fighters. Without a home-produced fighter becoming available until some time in the 2030's, what non-US fighter would suit Turkey best?

art wrote:

NATO member Turkey dropped its opposition to Finland and Sweden joining NATO. If US Congress is going to block supply of US aircraft or engines to NATO member Turkey, what has Turkey received in return?

alberchico wrote:

art wrote:

bajs11 wrote:

https://www.defensenews.com/pentagon/2022/08/16/us-holds-fire-on-reports-of-turkeys-second-s-400-shipment/


Think they will just keep pushing it until they are kicked out of the NATO.

In my opinion...

Turkey is not going to scrap S-400 at this point
Turkey is not going to stop being an authoritarian regime and change to one respecting human rights
Turkey is not going to stop attacking Kurdish independence movements
If Menendez on his own can block supply of F-16 and upgrade kits, Turkey will not be getting them.

Turkey needs more fighters. Without a home-produced fighter becoming available until some time in the 2030's, what non-US fighter would suit Turkey best?

I think the long term future for the Turkish Air Force involves repairing relations with the U.S. after Edrogan is gone and re-entering the F-35 program. And they need to swallow their pride and scrap the stealth fighter program that is going to suck up tremendous amounts of money and resources. But in the meantime with their economy on the brink, they are screwed.

alberchico wrote:

I think the long term future for the Turkish Air Force involves repairing relations with the U.S. after Edrogan is gone and re-entering the F-35 program. And they need to swallow their pride and scrap the stealth fighter program that is going to suck up tremendous amounts of money and resources. But in the meantime with their economy on the brink, they are screwed.

art wrote:

alberchico wrote:

I think the long term future for the Turkish Air Force involves repairing relations with the U.S. after Edrogan is gone and re-entering the F-35 program. And they need to swallow their pride and scrap the stealth fighter program that is going to suck up tremendous amounts of money and resources. But in the meantime with their economy on the brink, they are screwed.

I imagine that the TF-X programme is a matter of national prestige. A bit like the Tejas programme in India. KF-21 in South Korea? Don't know about that one.

If the Turkish public has been fed the line that Turkey will become the Islamic source of 5G fighters and Islamic states will fall over themselves to buy it, it may not be so easy to cancel. It is due to roll out March 2023, so it should be a long way down its development path. If Turkey can make an engine with the help of a foreign OEM and the aircraft has effective Turkish systems (AESA etc), it may be attractive to Islamic states, particularly any Islamic states denied access to F-35.

kitplane01 wrote:

art wrote:

alberchico wrote:

I think the long term future for the Turkish Air Force involves repairing relations with the U.S. after Edrogan is gone and re-entering the F-35 program. And they need to swallow their pride and scrap the stealth fighter program that is going to suck up tremendous amounts of money and resources. But in the meantime with their economy on the brink, they are screwed.

I imagine that the TF-X programme is a matter of national prestige. A bit like the Tejas programme in India. KF-21 in South Korea? Don't know about that one.

If the Turkish public has been fed the line that Turkey will become the Islamic source of 5G fighters and Islamic states will fall over themselves to buy it, it may not be so easy to cancel. It is due to roll out March 2023, so it should be a long way down its development path. If Turkey can make an engine with the help of a foreign OEM and the aircraft has effective Turkish systems (AESA etc), it may be attractive to Islamic states, particularly any Islamic states denied access to F-35.

I'm not an expert, but if Turkey can make an AESA radar and medium-or-better fighter jet engine, without using controlled parts made overseas, I'm super surprised. But sometimes life does surprise me.

ASELSAN is currently developing an advanced active electronically scanned array radar which will use gallium nitride (GaN) technology for the TF-X program

With continued dilly-dallying by the United States on the sale of F-16 fighter jets to Turkey, Ankara has officially announced it would purchase Eurofighter Typhoons if the US does not come through with the Fighting Falcons.

Speaking to the local NTV news channel on September 23, Turkey’s presidential spokesperson, Ibrahim Kalin, confirmed the previously reported plan, saying, “We have negotiations with Europe regarding Eurofighter; Turkey will never be without alternatives.”

Two provisions that were set to restrict the sale of F-16 fighter jets to Türkiye in the U.S. Senate version of the 2023 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) bill have been removed, sources said Tuesday.

The U.S. Senate removed the conditions during a 2023 defense budget meeting on Tuesday.

Defence officials from the USA and Turkey met in Washington DC on 18 January for “consultations” related to Lockheed Martin’s F-35 Lightning II fifth-generation stealth fighter.

..Turkish defence minister Hulusi Akar says the talks centre on securing a small number of F-35s for his country.

art wrote:

This is a surprise - Turkey reported to be wanting some F-35

Defence officials from the USA and Turkey met in Washington DC on 18 January for “consultations” related to Lockheed Martin’s F-35 Lightning II fifth-generation stealth fighter.

..Turkish defence minister Hulusi Akar says the talks centre on securing a small number of F-35s for his country.

https://www.flightglobal.com/fixed-wing ... 53.article

art wrote:

I don't understand. I thought F-35 was cancelled to avoid its 'radar profile' to S400 becoming known.

Aesma wrote:

F-35s fly with radar reflectors when not used in a warzone so the number doesn't really matter.

Are Eurofighter a real possibility, would Germany greenlight them ?

If they became used against Greece's Rafales, that could get interesting...

alberchico wrote:

art wrote:

This is a surprise - Turkey reported to be wanting some F-35

Defence officials from the USA and Turkey met in Washington DC on 18 January for “consultations” related to Lockheed Martin’s F-35 Lightning II fifth-generation stealth fighter.

..Turkish defence minister Hulusi Akar says the talks centre on securing a small number of F-35s for his country.

https://www.flightglobal.com/fixed-wing ... 53.article

Could this be what they really want in exchange for giving Sweden a green light to join NATO? Kind of ballsy to be asking for F-35's right now.