Breaking news at the moment.

Apparently a Russian jet has collided with a US drone over the Black Sea. The damage caused the US to crash the drone.

At a guess an RQ-4 that always had the 'Forte' callsign?
Unless there are others used.

https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/usa-meld ... 4cff1ddb83

So we'll see what happens if an unmanned vehicle gets destroyed by somebody else.
I suppose there will be blame on both sides.

Edit:


From the non-av forum (thanks petertenthije)
Apparently an MQ-9.


https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war- ... s-12541713

Not good. Not that I am surprised given the drones gather vital intelligence for the Ukrainian war but this is not a good development.

2 days ago B52s flew right to the russian border close to Finland.

Not collided. Deliberately disabled.

US news outlet says the Russian jets tried dumping fuel in front of the drone before they clipped the drones propeller.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/14/politics ... index.html

bt

Probably can't just flip the wing like a V-1 with a spitfire.

bikerthai wrote:

Not collided. Deliberately disabled.

US news outlet says the Russian jets tried dumping fuel in front of the drone before they clipped the drones propeller.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/14/politics ... index.html

bt

Wasn't the what Chinese jets did to an Australian P-8?
'Birds of a feather' and all that.

TheSonntag wrote:

Not good. Not that I am surprised given the drones gather vital intelligence for the Ukrainian war but this is not a good development.

2 days ago B52s flew right to the russian border close to Finland.

probably as payback for what happened a month ago near Alaska
https://www.reuters.com/world/russian-b ... 023-02-15/

This scenario must already be gamed out. But what will be the plan?
I don't think sending F-22s or F-35s to escort the Reapers would be a good idea, that would allow the S-400 radars to practice their detection skills and the Reapers have 10 or 12 hours endurance. But they can't let this be a win for the Russians.

bajs11 wrote:

TheSonntag wrote:

Not good. Not that I am surprised given the drones gather vital intelligence for the Ukrainian war but this is not a good development.

2 days ago B52s flew right to the russian border close to Finland.

probably as payback for what happened a month ago near Alaska
https://www.reuters.com/world/russian-b ... 023-02-15/

Not even remotely. This was a deliberate act once again demonstrating the unprofessional, reckless behavior of Russian pilots, or a rouge Russian pilot. I'll go with the former. The MQ-9 was in International Air Space. Was it gathering intel on Russian ground movements, most likely yes. So what? They would do the same if they had the anything even remotely close to the MQ-9. Same with the Chinese. Their intercepts are always unsafe and unprofessional.

We won't escalate. You can be assured another MQ-9 will be up later today.

Vintage wrote:

This scenario must already be gamed out. But what will be the plan?
I don't think sending F-22s or F-35s to escort the Reapers would be a good idea, that would allow the S-400 radars to practice their detection skills and the Reapers have 10 or 12 hours endurance. But they can't let this be a win for the Russians.

It won't be, but no way will we escalate by taking a unilateral action. This will most likely send a new weapons system to Ukraine that were holding back on. More of and indirect response. My bet would be more JDAMS.

I’d bet an F-22 flight could hawk the the drone, unseen by the Russians. Russian fighters get near the drone and surprised by the F-22s suddenly on their wing. It’s been done elsewhere, I believe.

EDIT: here’s a link to the story.

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/ ... ted-190472

glideslope wrote:

bajs11 wrote:

TheSonntag wrote:

Not good. Not that I am surprised given the drones gather vital intelligence for the Ukrainian war but this is not a good development.

2 days ago B52s flew right to the russian border close to Finland.

probably as payback for what happened a month ago near Alaska
https://www.reuters.com/world/russian-b ... 023-02-15/

Not even remotely. This was a deliberate act once again demonstrating the unprofessional, reckless behavior of Russian pilots, or a rouge Russian pilot. I'll go with the former. The MQ-9 was in International Air Space. Was it gathering intel on Russian ground movements, most likely yes. So what? They would do the same if they had the anything even remotely close to the MQ-9. Same with the Chinese. Their intercepts are always unsafe and unprofessional.

We won't escalate. You can be assured another MQ-9 will be up later today.

uh i was referring to his comment about those B-52s
as if only NATO/USA fly bombers close to Russian borders and mr Vladimir Vladimirovich is totally innocent

A few thoughts out loud:
- Wondering which part of the Sukhoi was sacrificed in order to poke at the drone's propeller.
- If it is known that the Russian jet did dump fuel, it means a camera recorded the event. How else would this detail be known?
- The USAF recently shot down a Chinese "drone" in a shape of a balloon. But this action took place over the US territory, not over international water. So the two events are not comparable.
- Wondering if the Russians planned the downing of the drone, in which case they might have anticipated its recovery. Conversely, can the US Navy bring recovery assets in the Black sea at the moment (I mean, is the blockade of the Bosphorus by Turkey only applicable to the belligerent nations of the Russian/Ukrainian war?)?

glideslope wrote:

bajs11 wrote:

TheSonntag wrote:

Not good. Not that I am surprised given the drones gather vital intelligence for the Ukrainian war but this is not a good development.

2 days ago B52s flew right to the russian border close to Finland.

probably as payback for what happened a month ago near Alaska
https://www.reuters.com/world/russian-b ... 023-02-15/

Not even remotely. This was a deliberate act once again demonstrating the unprofessional, reckless behavior of Russian pilots, or a rouge Russian pilot. I'll go with the former. The MQ-9 was in International Air Space. Was it gathering intel on Russian ground movements, most likely yes. So what? They would do the same if they had the anything even remotely close to the MQ-9. Same with the Chinese. Their intercepts are always unsafe and unprofessional.

We won't escalate. You can be assured another MQ-9 will be up later today.

Of course it was deliberate, the US and Russia are in an undeclared war. Russia knows politically the US cannot respond without it playing bad to the all important soccer mom voting block back home. Sadly I expect more of this from Russia.

GalaxyFlyer wrote:

I’d bet an F-22 flight could hawk the the drone, unseen by the Russians. Russian fighters get near the drone and surprised by the F-22s suddenly on their wing. It’s been done elsewhere, I believe.

EDIT: here’s a link to the story.

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/ ... ted-190472

Meanwhile the Russians are tweaking their radar and training their operators on an actual US stealth fighter.
That would be giving away very valuable intel.

And what would the F-22 do if a Russian jet appeared in the sky over international water?

So no one believes that this was a rouge pilot who just decided to act to protect the Motherland from spying being done from international air space, it was a deliberate act ordered by higher command?

par13del wrote:

So no one believes that this was a rouge pilot who just decided to act to protect the Motherland from spying being done from international air space, it was a deliberate act ordered by higher command?

That's how I see it. But I can't speak for everyone.
It's in line with how the North Koreans behave in the DMZ.

So where was the Reaper flying?

We see the Global Hawk doing tracks over the Black Sea all the time.

So if the Reaper is flying in international water, then the next escalation would be sending the P-8A to do the tracks.

bt

Vintage wrote:

GalaxyFlyer wrote:

I’d bet an F-22 flight could hawk the the drone, unseen by the Russians. Russian fighters get near the drone and surprised by the F-22s suddenly on their wing. It’s been done elsewhere, I believe.

EDIT: here’s a link to the story.

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/ ... ted-190472

Meanwhile the Russians are tweaking their radar and training their operators on an actual US stealth fighter.
That would be giving away very valuable intel.

And what would the F-22 do if a Russian jet appeared in the sky over international water?

I’m positive, we have a very good idea on Russian capabilities vs our planes. Mostly, it would show the Russians that their actions could be costly. We didn’t hesitate when Iran posed a threat. Deterrence requires the other side know you have the power and the will. It’s pretty obvious the Russian military isn’t even 8’ tall.

GalaxyFlyer wrote:

I’m positive, we have a very good idea on Russian capabilities vs our planes. Mostly, it would show the Russians that their actions could be costly. It’s pretty obvious the Russian military isn’t even 8’ tall.

That's all pretty vague. What would a F-22 actually do if a Russian plane flew over international water?
Bumper tag? I don't think so.

Ok, then why did the AF make the intercept on the Iranian F-4s? It’s not vague, it’s making sure an adversary knows you have the capability to stop them. Don’t have to shoot, just intercept.

Vintage wrote:

par13del wrote:

So no one believes that this was a rouge pilot who just decided to act to protect the Motherland from spying being done from international air space, it was a deliberate act ordered by higher command?

That's how I see it. But I can't speak for everyone.
It's in line with how the North Koreans behave in the DMZ.

I wouldn't be surprised if vodka had something to do with what this pilot did.

Something doesn't make sense here, or at least I've been under a wrong impression. The Global hawks that we've all been following on FR24 are the RQ-4 global Hawk, they start their missions at about 50,000ft and as they expend fuel they climb up to 56,000 feet at the end of their 12 hour missions. The drone that was brought down wasn't one of those.

The MQ-9 is a prop job that is used for mostly counterinsurgency strikes by the US, it has a max altitude of 50,000 feet and normally operates at half that altitude. What would an MQ-9 be doing over the Black Sea?

There obviously has been something going on that we haven't known about.

How about load the next Reaper with a self destruct mechanism so the resulting explosion brings down the ramming aircraft?

MohawkWeekend wrote:

How about load the next Reaper with a self destruct mechanism so the resulting explosion brings down the ramming aircraft?

Now there's an idea!
That'll work.

MohawkWeekend wrote:

How about load the next Reaper with a self destruct mechanism so the resulting explosion brings down the ramming aircraft?

But then you'll feel like a total idiot if they don't ram it. Like packing an umbrella on a sunny day.

bajs11 wrote:

glideslope wrote:

bajs11 wrote:

probably as payback for what happened a month ago near Alaska
https://www.reuters.com/world/russian-b ... 023-02-15/

Not even remotely. This was a deliberate act once again demonstrating the unprofessional, reckless behavior of Russian pilots, or a rouge Russian pilot. I'll go with the former. The MQ-9 was in International Air Space. Was it gathering intel on Russian ground movements, most likely yes. So what? They would do the same if they had the anything even remotely close to the MQ-9. Same with the Chinese. Their intercepts are always unsafe and unprofessional.

We won't escalate. You can be assured another MQ-9 will be up later today.

uh i was referring to his comment about those B-52s
as if only NATO/USA fly bombers close to Russian borders and mr Vladimir Vladimirovich is totally innocent

My apologies. I was under the impression you were discussing TU-95 Flights off Alaska. I stand corrected.

par13del wrote:

So no one believes that this was a rouge pilot who just decided to act to protect the Motherland from spying being done from international air space, it was a deliberate act ordered by higher command?

I think a rouge SU-27 pilot is very plausible as I mentioned early on. It's just as possible that such an incident is just one of the hundreds of intercepts by the Russian and Chinese pilots that go on every year breaking International Law by forcing an aircraft to deviate it's flight path in International Airspace. This one got too close. I've read a good chunk of its nose was cut off, but it landed. (unconfirmed.)

The MQ-9 is much cheaper and much more plentiful than the MQ-4, so if it does the job...

Aesma wrote:

The MQ-9 is much cheaper and much more plentiful than the MQ-4, so if it does the job...

But what was the 'job'?

Vintage wrote:

But what was the 'job'?

Reconnaissance. It's like spying, but legal.

I am sure this was not an accident, but Russian fighter pilots fly recklesly. Norwegian fighter pilots has experienced Russian pilots flying without their transponders on, being a treat to civilian airliners and also Russian pilots that has flown so close and misjudged the space between Russian and Norwegian planes. There was an incident during the cold war where a Russian plane rammed into a Norwegian P-3.

LyleLanley wrote:

Vintage wrote:

But what was the 'job'?

Reconnaissance. It's like spying, but legal.

It's stated in international airspace, which will be the same as other drones and manned recon and intel assets. Where it has come down is also international as it's likely the Black Sea that could be problematic for recovery, though the info is the operators ditched it, presumably as in the best possible position given the circumstances.

Russian bombers are also in international airspace, however this often includes, when approaching in particular the UK area of responsibility, having their transponders off in crowded skies, with no filed flight plan, hence the need to intercept them. Which is why they are doing it.

They also fly very close to NATO warships in for example the Med off Syria, so close they are warned of the risk to themselves of both collision and the power of the radars on the warships, as shown in 2018 in the Black Sea with a RN Type 45 Destroyer, in 2021 with the RN Carrier Task group.

Later that year it is thought a Russian drone, on a course to hit a US base in Syria, was shot down by a RAF Typhoon out of Cyprus.

GDB wrote:

It's stated in international airspace, which will be the same as other drones and manned recon and intel assets.

We know nothing about this drone, we have never seen an MQ-9 over the Black Sea before, and I doubt this one was broadcasting ADS-B.

This is a different situation than that of an MQ-4. The MQ-4 flies above all commercial traffic and all but the exceptional military aircraft. This one was almost certainly down among the other potential air traffic. It could not have been performing the reconnaissance task of an MQ-4, the MQ-4 has vastly more recon capability than this one would have even if it was carrying some kind of recon pod.

It might have been probing for air defense blind spots, or even taunting the S-400s to see their response. But I doubt very much that it was on an ELINT mission.

Some updates from the US Defense Department:

The US Defense Department is currently working to declassify imagery from the incident, Ryder said Tuesday

He also said that Russia has not recovered the downed drone.

Speaking with CNN’s Jake Tapper on “The Lead” on Tuesday, Kirby said the US has “taken steps to protect our equities with respect to that particular drone.”

“We obviously don’t want to see anybody getting their hands on it beyond us,” Kirby said.

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/03/14/politics/us-drone-russian-jet-black-sea/index.html

Some good initial reporting and context here, as stated this drone is a very mature system, not too mysterious and hardly the only ISR asset, just one they could target;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oxV7sFwPWo0

Along with some hair raising footage of Russian encounters with manned aircraft.

scbriml wrote:

bajs11 wrote:

TheSonntag wrote:

Not good. Not that I am surprised given the drones gather vital intelligence for the Ukrainian war but this is not a good development.

2 days ago B52s flew right to the russian border close to Finland.

probably as payback for what happened a month ago near Alaska
https://www.reuters.com/world/russian-b ... 023-02-15/

I doubt it, those Bear intercepts happen all the time and not just in the US.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/raf- ... n-aircraft

exactly
mentioning those B-52s flying close to the Russian border as some kind of justification for them to down that drone is a bit absurd.

GDB wrote:

Some good initial reporting and context here, as stated this drone is a very mature system, not too mysterious and hardly the only ISR asset, just one they could target;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oxV7sFwPWo0

Along with some hair raising footage of Russian encounters with manned aircraft.

It seems they have learned from the RQ-170 Sentinel incident.

wonder how much tech from the Sentinel were in all those Iranian drones we have been hearing about

glideslope wrote:

par13del wrote:

So no one believes that this was a rouge pilot who just decided to act to protect the Motherland from spying being done from international air space, it was a deliberate act ordered by higher command?

I think a rouge SU-27 pilot is very plausible as I mentioned early on. It's just as possible that such an incident is just one of the hundreds of intercepts by the Russian and Chinese pilots that go on every year breaking International Law by forcing an aircraft to deviate it's flight path in International Airspace. This one got too close. I've read a good chunk of its nose was cut off, but it landed. (unconfirmed.)

I wonder if this was the pilot acting unilaterally or they were actually ordered to take it down. Seems odd a pilot would actually put their own aircraft at risk just to mess with a drone, and even then why not shoot it down with guns?

GDB wrote:

It's stated in international airspace, which will be the same as other drones and manned recon and intel assets. Where it has come down is also international as it's likely the Black Sea that could be problematic for recovery, though the info is the operators ditched it, presumably as in the best possible position given the circumstances.

Agreed. They’ve been operating in that area for a long, long time, and if they weren’t in international airspace you’d hear about it from the Russians. Even if not on ADS-B they are squawking and visible, just like the Global Hawks. As a recon asset it collects the same sort of stuff the Global Hawk can, just not as much or as well.

No way would the pilot do something this dumb on his own. Sometimes the left hand doesn’t know what the right is doing, so this might not have come directly from the top, but somewhere high in the pilot’s chain-of-command.

My point simply was that this B52 flew within a mile or so of russian international waters. I actually do support show of force, but this was very close to St. Petersburg, and it was just a few days ago, so I just thought there might be some connection. I do not say this justifies what the russians did. Lets say what it was: They brought it down, dliberately.

Thank you by the way for pointing out it was a Reaper. So it is not to be confused with the Global Hawk, callsign Forte50.

I really wonder how the US will respond. This is an escalation.

Vintage wrote:

GDB wrote:

It's stated in international airspace, which will be the same as other drones and manned recon and intel assets.

We know nothing about this drone, we have never seen an MQ-9 over the Black Sea before, and I doubt this one was broadcasting ADS-B.

This is a different situation than that of an MQ-4. The MQ-4 flies above all commercial traffic and all but the exceptional military aircraft. This one was almost certainly down among the other potential air traffic. It could not have been performing the reconnaissance task of an MQ-4, the MQ-4 has vastly more recon capability than this one would have even if it was carrying some kind of recon pod.

It might have been probing for air defense blind spots, or even taunting the S-400s to see their response. But I doubt very much that it was on an ELINT mission.

I would say the area it was flying 'west of Crimea' isn't the most busy one with commercial traffic.
Nothing visible there on FR.

Just because we know nothing about it nor have seen one over the Black Sea before doesn't mean it hasn't been there before.
According to some reports there are U-2s flying daily over Europe. I've never seen one on the flight trackers. It doesn't mean it's not there. Same goes for all the fighters.

Indeed. I have been watching ADSB Global daily now, and when you press "U" you see military planes, but nowhere all of them. For example, the German fighters inside Germany (and Belgian ones) are usually visible when they fly on training missions. They are not visible in the Baltics, and they are usually not visible in Poland during live missions.

The tankers are usually visible, so are the AWACS and the Recon planes, but the fighters are not.

bajs11 wrote:

wonder how much tech from the Sentinel were in all those Iranian drones we have been hearing about

None. The Iranian drones use commercial off the shelf chips of western manufacture, but they're not "advanced" in any way. Hobbyists do better. They do the job cheaply, and Iran can't get better tech anyway, so it is what it is. Now Ukraine is using flak guns to shoot them down, not something you can do against a really modern missile or loitering munition.

Adversaries getting their hands on advanced tech is mostly an issue regarding jamming possibilities. The adversary can find ways to disrupt communications. Reverse engineering stuff you can't produce isn't very helpful. I guess they could sell it to China.

This video looks very interesting and could be realistically related to the episode.

https://m.facebook.com/video/video.php? ... 92896&_rdr

777 wrote:

This video looks very interesting and could be realistically related to the episode.

https://m.facebook.com/video/video.php? ... 92896&_rdr

That's a tough prop to have hit you accidentally.

Tugg

It's always the weaker adversary that plays these games. A stronger nation would be accused of being a bully. I know that there are many here whose first language isn't English but I found it sort of Freudian that a couple posters referred to the Russian pilot as "rouge" when they meant "rogue". Rouge is English/French for "red",

Does the US have ships I the Black Sea?

I'm not, maybe we should. Just in case another drone goes down, so we can have assets to retrieve it.

bt

bikerthai wrote:

Does the US have ships I the Black Sea?
I'm not, maybe we should. Just in case another drone goes down, so we can have assets to retrieve it.
bt

USN Ships in the Black Sea would be very vulnerable. That's probably not in the cards a least for now. Something, however, needs to be done to make it plain to Russia that this behavior must stop. This incident is a major escalation and the US must make it clear that there will be serious consequences if it were to occur again. Leave our military units operating in international airspace alone or we will use force to stop you. It is my understanding that F-22 and F-35 aircraft are now operating in the area.

I know it can't be done, but just fly a couple drones filled with explosives and if another plane hits it, let it "unfortunately explode".
Pretty sure that would cause significant issues for whatever airplane hit it.

Tugg

This sort of thing is pretty common, as an example of standard Russian practice, just the interception combination being new;
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCOWF2o ... 8eh3VaT63p