but I am feeling more and more confident that the final election numbers are going to turn out something similar to Reagan-Mondale in '84
I'm not quite that confident, but the polls are starting to show upward movement for Bush -- and as Jamesag96, this is
before the convention. In particular, Kerry's approval among veterans has
dropped by 9 points; perhaps the SVFT attacks are beginning to bite him. Their second ad is far more effective than the first and will probably begin airing in more states soon.
Something also went down this week to
spook the IEM presidential futures market on Kerry, breaking them out of a six-week trading range. I'm enough of a believer in efficient markets to suspect there's something behind it, especially since only the most hardcore political junkies trade on IEM.
If Bush can hold or gain in the polls after the convention, he will have the coveted Big M: momentum. If things continue to settle down in Iraq and the economy doesn't slip further, Bush's prospects will look pretty good. Still, the election is a long way away and plenty can happen between now and then. This one is going down to the wire.
--B2707SST