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Silly US Election Question:

Sun Oct 31, 2004 4:14 am

Is there an exact time when the winner of the election is named? Or will this be announced as soon as the result is in? What I'd really like to know is, what time can I turn on the tv and see live when the President of the US 2004-2008 is announced?  Smile

Yes I know it's on tuesday...

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usatoeze
Posts: 348
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RE: Silly US Election Question:

Sun Oct 31, 2004 4:22 am

Normally when you wake up in Norway you should be able to know the winner...

Unless something crazy happens you will definitely be able to know by lunchtime Nov 3rd.

Hope this helps..
War is a very poor political tool
 
TheGov
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RE: Silly US Election Question:

Sun Oct 31, 2004 4:24 am

The major networks declare a winner based on exit polling. They have been asked in the past to wait until the polls close on the West Coast, usually 7 pm PST or 10 pm EST and then announce who they believe the winner might be. The actual numerical results are not know for a few days. And the election is not truly determined until it is certified by the newly elected Congress which is sworn in during the first week in January.

The above information is based upon recollections of the 2000 election.
Always a pallbearer, never a corpse.
 
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RE: Silly US Election Question:

Sun Oct 31, 2004 4:30 am

I know I will know who the winner is on Wednesday when I wake up, but one of the Norwegian TV channels here are broadcasting from the election at around 3AM local time (9PM NewYork time) so I was considering getting/staying up for that. But if there is a big chance the result won't be in until sometime during the Wednesday, I'd rather get some sleep.  Smile

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"If guns don't kill people, people kill people - does that mean toasters don't toast toast, toast toast toast?"
 
Klaus
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RE: Silly US Election Question:

Sun Oct 31, 2004 4:32 am

They will probably fall all over themselves to declare the winner in the "swing states", notably (or notoriously Wink/being sarcastic) with Florida right at the top of the list...
 
Klaus
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RE: Silly US Election Question:

Sun Oct 31, 2004 4:33 am

I certainly won´t go to sleep that night...
 
IFLYMCO
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RE: Silly US Election Question:

Sun Oct 31, 2004 4:38 am

Klaus-
Actually the networks have said that they will be much more restrained this year in terms of declaring states one way or the other. In 2000 they declared Florida (where I live) for Gore before polls in the far west of the state had closed (They are in Central time).


I'll believe it when I see it....
Now it should be "IFLYDCA"
 
prosa
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RE: Silly US Election Question:

Sun Oct 31, 2004 5:04 am

I know I will know who the winner is on Wednesday when I wake up, but one of the Norwegian TV channels here are broadcasting from the election at around 3AM local time (9PM NewYork time) so I was considering getting/staying up for that.

I would tend to doubt there'll be any decision at that time. Polls in most of the east coast states will have been closed for an hour by then, but they'll be just closing in the so-called "Inland Triangle" of Wisconsin, Minnesota and Iowa, three Central Time Zone states that look crucial to the election's outcome.
"Let me think about it" = the coward's way of saying "no"
 
dl757md
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RE: Silly US Election Question:

Sun Oct 31, 2004 5:11 am

Don't forget the result of the 2000 election wasn't really known until Dec 13th when Gore conceded. It is looking like we could go through another episode like that. Although I hope we don't.

Dl757Md
757 Most beautiful airliner in the sky!
 
Falcon84
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RE: Silly US Election Question:

Sun Oct 31, 2004 5:23 am

It will be decided when the multitudes of lawsuits that will come out in Ohio are decided in the courts.
Work Right, Fly Hard
 
N771AN
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RE: Silly US Election Question:

Sun Oct 31, 2004 5:25 am

The official winner is declared on January 6.
 
srbmod
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RE: Silly US Election Question:

Sun Oct 31, 2004 5:25 am

We'll know in time for the 2008 elections  Laugh out loud

We may possibly have a winner by Midnight Eastern Standard Time, as by this point the western states will have been closed for several hours and enough votes from those states will have been counted to really declare a winner. But if the Ohio and Florida results come out early (and clear) enough, you could quite possibly figure out the results even before California's polls close.
 
AzoresLover
Posts: 756
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RE: Silly US Election Question:

Sun Oct 31, 2004 6:49 am

Falcon84 -

Unfortunately, you are likely right!!! Unless the results should happen to be overwhelming and incontrovertible...an unexpected scenario, to be sure. I'm in Ohio, and I am COMPLETE SICK of all the ads!!!!!!!! Everyone bashing everyone, both sides using half-truths with their own particular spin.

[email protected] -

It depends on how close the election is. The 1980 election was declared not much more than an hour after the polls closed in the east. I was living in Washington State at the time, was on my way to vote, when I heard that it was all over, that Carter had already conceded...I hadn't even voted yet!! So I didn't...I just turned around and went back home!

I suspect it'll be at least a few hours before a winner is declared...I'm expecting that announcement sometime in the early morning hours of Wednesday...within 12 hours of the eastern polls closing. But that's just a personal guess...

If I were you, I'd get a normal night's sleep...I don't think you'll miss a thing!!
Those who want to do something will find a way; those who don't will find an excuse.
 
L.1011
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RE: Silly US Election Question:

Sun Oct 31, 2004 12:19 pm

Let's assume something here. Bush has about a 75% chance of winning the election. Kerry 25%. Kerry has maybe a 2% chance of winning a landslide, a 5% chance of winning by a significant amount but not a landslide (over 300 electoral), and about a 17% chance of winning a razorthin victory (under 300 electoral votes. Bush has about a 40% chance of winning something razorthin, 30% winning over 300, and 5% a landslide. (all % should add up to 100).

Presuming that, we can look at a few states in eastern time and potentially know the winner by the time the states in Eastern Time give their final results.

The states I'll use are Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Florida, and Michigan.

New Jersey has about a 70% chance of going to Kerry and a 30% chance of going to Bush. If Bush wins New Jersey, he has the election sewn up.

Pennsylvania has about a 60% chance of going to Kerry, and a 40% chance of going to Bush. If Kerry wins PA, the election will fall within the 60% of possible outcomes that favor Kerry. This makes a Bush victory most likely razorthin. If Bush wins PA, he has the election sewn up. A Kerry win means we must wait, a Bush win means you can go to bed [email protected]  Smile/happy/getting dizzy

Michigan has maybe a 55% Kerry chance and a 45% Bush chance. If Kerry wins here, a Bush victory will be down to the wire. If Bush wins here, Kerry is done.

Florida has probably a 60% chance of going to Bush, 40% Kerry. A Kerry win here will likely be part of a much larger Kerry victory. A Bush victory simply extends the election forward. I don't mention states like Ohio and New Hampshire because they are just about 50-50 and don't prove anything.

Central time has the swingers of Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa. A Kerry trio is likely a Kerry victory. A Bush trio is likely a Bush victory. A split means keep watching.

Mountain time is Bush country always, excluding New Mexico, which is really 50-50 and again won't prove anything.

If we still don't have a clear victor, Oregon in Pacific time may decide it. If we still don't have it, little Hawaii might decide it. This promises to be an exiciting election night no matter how it turns out. Please America, go out and VOTE! I hope it's for Bush (or Nader  Wink/being sarcastic ) but even if it isn't, just VOTE!
 
ltbewr
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RE: Silly US Election Question:

Sun Oct 31, 2004 12:49 pm

If I were you, I would just set your alarm clock a little early, for about 6:00 h your local time to see the preliminary call of a winner if clearly a landside is deveoping in the vote totals. If that doesn't occur, then when you get to the time for your morning coffee break, go online and check as by that time most of the votes, except hand and absentee votes, will be in and we may have a good idea of the probable winner. If by lunch time it appears their are significant vote issues in key states and difficulties in determining the votes to determine the designation of the electorial college vote majority of a given state and in turn still under the number of total votes required to win, then a rerun of Florida 2000.
 
AzoresLover
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RE: Silly US Election Question:

Sun Oct 31, 2004 1:06 pm

L.1011 -

You have WAY too much time on your hands. Get a hobby!!!

LOL
Those who want to do something will find a way; those who don't will find an excuse.
 
N6376M
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RE: Silly US Election Question:

Sun Oct 31, 2004 1:20 pm

The winner is "official" when the electoral college meets and votes. Remember, not all states require an elector to remain committed to their candidate. There's already a guy in West Virginia who has said he won't cast his vote for Bush even though he's a Bush elector.
 
IFLYMCO
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RE: Silly US Election Question:

Sun Oct 31, 2004 2:59 pm

N6376m-

The same thing happened in D.C. in 2000. An elector (for Gore) left her ballot blank to protest "Taxation without Representation". Needless to say it left some people in the district pretty upset.
Now it should be "IFLYDCA"
 
aa757first
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RE: Silly US Election Question:

Sun Oct 31, 2004 4:05 pm

N6376m is correct. While the media usually reports the result shortly after the election, its offical sometime in December. That is when the electors meet and cast their votes.

AAndrew
 
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RE: Silly US Election Question:

Sun Oct 31, 2004 10:27 pm

L.1011, if Bush wins I'll stay in my bed for a loooong time...  Smile

Anyway, I think I'll do as it was mentioned earlier, and just get up around 0600 local time to see who's won.

Thanks for the help everyone.

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"If guns don't kill people, people kill people - does that mean toasters don't toast toast, toast toast toast?"
 
Boeing7E7
Posts: 5512
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RE: Silly US Election Question:

Mon Nov 01, 2004 12:25 am

If one of the candidates takes all of the following list of states, you can go to bed early, unless Bush somehow takes CA. If they split the below states, or if the west coast polls are closed and either Flordia or Ohio are too close to call, it'll be 2000 all over again:

Florida
Wisconsin
Iowa
Ohio
 
lehpron
Posts: 6846
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RE: Silly US Election Question:

Mon Nov 01, 2004 4:09 am

Tell me something about the electoral college, does this particular someone represent anyone of their fellow voting neighbors when they do what they do? What is the point of us voting if more of them are biased enough to vote against what the state votes as a total count?

>>"And the election is not truly determined until it is certified by the newly elected Congress which is sworn in during the first week in January.
"<<

Let's say if one guy officially wins by the initial count mid november but as the count continues up until that date with other absentee ballots making it in and the count draws closer to 50-50 and then suddenly flips and turns out that the other guy offically won, will the first guy acknowledge this?

In past election the percentage was large enough such that if someone won in November, they remained winner in January. What if that is not the case this time?
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