Let's assume something here. Bush has about a 75% chance of winning the election. Kerry 25%. Kerry has maybe a 2% chance of winning a landslide, a 5% chance of winning by a significant amount but not a landslide (over 300 electoral), and about a 17% chance of winning a razorthin victory (under 300 electoral votes. Bush has about a 40% chance of winning something razorthin, 30% winning over 300, and 5% a landslide. (all % should add up to 100).
Presuming that, we can look at a few states in eastern time and potentially know the winner by the time the states in Eastern Time give their final results.
The states I'll use are Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Florida, and Michigan.
New Jersey has about a 70% chance of going to Kerry and a 30% chance of going to Bush. If Bush wins New Jersey, he has the election sewn up.
Pennsylvania has about a 60% chance of going to Kerry, and a 40% chance of going to Bush. If Kerry wins PA, the election will fall within the 60% of possible outcomes that favor Kerry. This makes a Bush victory most likely razorthin. If Bush wins PA, he has the election sewn up. A Kerry win means we must wait, a Bush win means you can go to bed [email protected]
Michigan has maybe a 55% Kerry chance and a 45% Bush chance. If Kerry wins here, a Bush victory will be down to the wire. If Bush wins here, Kerry is done.
Florida has probably a 60% chance of going to Bush, 40% Kerry. A Kerry win here will likely be part of a much larger Kerry victory. A Bush victory simply extends the election forward. I don't mention states like Ohio and New Hampshire because they are just about 50-50 and don't prove anything.
Central time has the swingers of Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa. A Kerry trio is likely a Kerry victory. A Bush trio is likely a Bush victory. A split means keep watching.
Mountain time is Bush country always, excluding New Mexico, which is really 50-50 and again won't prove anything.
If we still don't have a clear victor, Oregon in Pacific time may decide it. If we still don't have it, little Hawaii might decide it. This promises to be an exiciting election night no matter how it turns out. Please America, go out and VOTE! I hope it's for Bush (or Nader
) but even if it isn't, just VOTE!