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L.1011
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The Next Five Developed Nations?

Tue Apr 12, 2005 7:39 am

Which five nations do you believe will be next to become developed nations? Why?

For the sake of continuity, let's call these the developed nations:

Canada, United States of America, Iceland, Ireland, United Kingdom, Norway, Sweden, Finland, Denmark, Portugal, Spain, Andorra, France, Monaco, Germany, Switzerland, Austria, Italy, San Marino, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Slovenia, Greece, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Israel, Japan, Republic of Korea, Republic of China, Australia, New Zealand

My Five (in alphabetical order)

Botswana: Botswana is a diamond in the rough. Ethnically homogeneous, it has avoided civil wars and other conflicts throughout its short history. A bastion of stability and democracy in a continent wracked by the opposite, it has large reserves of diamonds and other minerals. It exports beef, and has tourism as a major source of revenue. It has a very low population density and it shares it official language (English) with the movers and shakers of the world economy. Its democracy is vibrant.

Chile: Again, Chile is relatively homogenous, making it largely immune to civil conflict. Although Pinochet was a brutal dictator, he put into place many sound economic policies which continue to give Chile a strong economy. Copper, wine, fish, and agricultural products bolster the economy. Low population density and a strong democracy are in place as well.

Tunisia: Tunisia currently stands as the most liberal nation and strongest democracy within the Arab world. The social foundations of a developed nation are already there. A homogenous population and gender equality ensure stability. A long standing family planning policy has maintained low population growth. It has a well-diversified economy based on oil, gas, and tourism. Manufacturing and European investment are growing.

United Arab Emirates: Women enjoy equality, income taxes are non-existant, and poverty is rare. Freedom is extensive. Oil, natural gas, and seafood base the economy.

Uruguay: Uruguay is another liberal democracy. A blend of offshore banking, agriculture, and tourism bolster a strong economy. Population density is low.
 
MYT332
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RE: The Next Five Developed Nations?

Wed Apr 13, 2005 3:25 am

The first on my list would have to be the USA.

I'm talking mental development of course.  Wink
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Arniepie
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RE: The Next Five Developed Nations?

Wed Apr 13, 2005 3:36 am

I think maybe the BeNeLux (Belgium, Netherlands, Luxemburg)-country's might have a good chance to become(?) developed country's!
[edit post]
 
kbuf737
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RE: The Next Five Developed Nations?

Wed Apr 13, 2005 3:41 am

Quoting Arniepie (Reply 2):
think maybe the BeNeLux (Belgium, Netherlands, Luxemburg)-country's might have a good chance to become(?) developed country's

Arent they already developed?

Indonesia maybe?
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jaysit
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RE: The Next Five Developed Nations?

Wed Apr 13, 2005 3:43 am

Canada, United States of America, Iceland, Ireland, United Kingdom, Norway, Sweden, Finland, Denmark, Portugal, Spain, Andorra, France, Monaco, Germany, Switzerland, Austria, Italy, San Marino, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Slovenia, Greece, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Israel, Japan, Republic of Korea, Republic of China, Australia, New Zealand

Your list is rather ad hoc.

Singapore has a per capita income of US $ 22,000, and a standard of living that far surpasses most of the countries on that list.

Latvia, Slovakia, Lithuania, Estonia, and the Czech Republic are all in the low $ 4000s. In comparison, Thailand has a per capita income of $ 2900, and a cost of living far lower than any in Europe. So, I would say that these nations - and Chile - are next in line for First World status - in perhaps, the next 10 years.

In comparison, Uruguay is broke, with its middle class fleeing to Europe and other parts of South America. The UAE may be a First World Nation for its tiny native born population, but not for the vast majority of migrant workers (who make up the bulk of its population).
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Arniepie
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RE: The Next Five Developed Nations?

Wed Apr 13, 2005 3:45 am

Quoting KBUF737 (Reply 3):
Quoting Arniepie (Reply 2):
think maybe the BeNeLux (Belgium, Netherlands, Luxemburg)-country's might have a good chance to become(?) developed country's

Arent they already developed?

Indonesia maybe?

I was just trying to show that the list is far from complete.
[edit post]
 
Alessandro
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RE: The Next Five Developed Nations?

Wed Apr 13, 2005 3:46 am

UAE, are you kidding? It´s main income is trade, seafood sounds pretty wrong?
I think Botswana got problem with it´s neighbours unfortunatly and depend on
natural resources too much.
I consider Tunisia the DDR of Africa so I don´t think they´ll have much growth in the future.
Brazil will definitly be a 1st class nation, if it´s not already?
Uruguay and Chile don´t have the same diversity as Brazil.
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L.1011
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RE: The Next Five Developed Nations?

Wed Apr 13, 2005 3:59 am

Quoting Jaysit (Reply 4):
Singapore has a per capita income of US $ 22,000, and a standard of living that far surpasses most of the countries on that list.

My apologies on Singapore, I was just scanning over the map and unsurprisingly missed it.

Quoting Alessandro (Reply 6):
I consider Tunisia the DDR of Africa so I don´t think they´ll have much growth in the future.

What do you mean by that?
 
kbuf737
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RE: The Next Five Developed Nations?

Wed Apr 13, 2005 3:59 am

What about some other Latin American nations?

Venezuela has potential with the oil and resources however government is very unstable at the moment.

Argentina? Although their currency collapsed IIRC.
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prosa
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RE: The Next Five Developed Nations?

Wed Apr 13, 2005 3:59 am

Brazil has an advanced economy in some respects but it has far too much poverty to be considered a developed nation. India is the same.
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DIJKKIJK
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RE: The Next Five Developed Nations?

Wed Apr 13, 2005 4:22 am

Quoting L.1011 (Thread starter):
, Portugal, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Slovenia, Greece, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia,

say, what have you been smoking?  Wink

Portugal and Greece are NOWHERE near developed. They would be on par with Egypt or Lebanon if not for the MILLIONS the EU is pumping into their economies.

All the other countries too have very developing economies and have huge unemployment problems. They too are going to end up relying on EU subsidies to stay afloat.
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nycflyer
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RE: The Next Five Developed Nations?

Wed Apr 13, 2005 6:02 am

what on earth do you mean by "developed"? I work in development, and I can tell you that those terms are tough to define, and are often debated. You get on very shaky ground when you say X country is developed, and Y country isn't.

First off, what is the developed world? Most would say it's the U.S. and Canada, the EU countries, Aus/NZ, and the developed Asian economies (Japan, Korea, Taiwan, etc.)

But you could also argue that some countries are economically developed but have no political freedoms - like the Gulf Arab states (UAE, Kuwait, Qatar) - are these "developed"?

If you're talking about which countries will have the fastest growing economies moving forward from now, obviously China, India, Brazil are up there.

But if you're talking per capita income, that's a very different story. This is a tricky thread. It's too vague the way it's presented.
 
WrenchBender
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RE: The Next Five Developed Nations?

Wed Apr 13, 2005 6:10 am

I would consider Chile as a developed nation, considering that it is pretty close to being includd in NAFTA. It is a wonderful country with a diverse economy, I think it is in a better position than some of the eastern european countries you included in your 'developed list' (you know the one without Luxembourg, Belguim, Holland, Iceland or South Africa)  Wink  Big grin

WrenchBender
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SXFAN
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RE: The Next Five Developed Nations?

Wed Apr 13, 2005 8:43 am

Quoting DIJKKIJK (Reply 10):
Quoting L.1011 (Thread starter):
, Portugal, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Slovenia, Greece, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia,

say, what have you been smoking?

Portugal and Greece are NOWHERE near developed. They would be on par with Egypt or Lebanon if not for the MILLIONS the EU is pumping into their economies.

DIJKKIK you tell us first...
 
MaverickM11
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RE: The Next Five Developed Nations?

Wed Apr 13, 2005 8:48 am

"Uruguay and Chile don´t have the same diversity as Brazil.
"

Chile is miles ahead of Brazil, primarily because it has (for reasons I'm not going to get into) avoided the populist downward cycle that plagues the rest of South America.
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Arcano
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RE: The Next Five Developed Nations?

Wed Apr 13, 2005 9:00 am

Quoting WrenchBender (Reply 12):
would consider Chile as a developed nation, considering that it is pretty close to being includd in NAFTA

Not really, our PGB per capita is close to 10.000, but we still have about 1.000.000 people with low incomes and the wealth distribution is not as advanced ad developed countries.

Quoting Alessandro (Reply 6):
Uruguay and Chile don´t have the same diversity as Brazil.

Maybe bigger, but Chile has much stronger and stable institutions, almost zero corruption, lower crime rate and more efficient government. Actually, all those index are pretty close to developed nations; we just need more production and better distribution
in order: 721,146,732,763,722,343,733,320,772,319,752,321,88,83,744,332,100,738, 333, 318, 77W, 78, 773, 380, 73G, 788, 789, 346
 
L.1011
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RE: The Next Five Developed Nations?

Wed Apr 13, 2005 9:16 am

Arcano demonstrates why Chile is on my list. It probably has a decent chance of being the first on my list to join the group.
 
AeroVodochody
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RE: The Next Five Developed Nations?

Wed Apr 13, 2005 9:27 am

Quoting Jaysit (Reply 4):
Latvia, Slovakia, Lithuania, Estonia, and the Czech Republic are all in the low $ 4000s.

CZECH REPUBLIC: $11,700 US
Slovakia:$8,500 US
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L.1011
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RE: The Next Five Developed Nations?

Wed Apr 13, 2005 9:47 am

Well, here are your top fifty in per capita GDP:

1. Luxembourg $48221.20 per person
2. United States $33108.13 per person
3. Norway $29563.65 per person
4. Iceland $29558.61 per person
5. Ireland $28872.56 per person
6. Switzerland $28229.29 per person
7. Denmark $27375.46 per person
8. Belgium $27077.22 per person
9. Japan $26682.49 per person
10. Canada $26581.08 per person
11. Austria $26513.74 per person
12. Netherlands $25287.12 per person
13. Germany $25027.20 per person
14. Australia $24974.68 per person
15. Finland $24928.79 per person
16. Sweden $24250.72 per person
17. France $23705.34 per person
18. Italy $23500.66 per person
19. United Kingdom $23369.80 per person
20. Israel $20518.15 per person
21. Cyprus $20475.41 per person
22. Singapore $20353.27 per person
23. United Arab Emirates $19679.50 per person
24. New Zealand $19461.91 per person
25. Spain $19108.63 per person
26. Slovenia $17823.22 per person
27. Bahamas, The $17480.34 per person
28. Portugal $17125.28 per person
29. Korea, South $17016.28 per person
30. Malta $16732.43 per person
31. Greece $16341.66 per person
32. Bahrain $15137.02 per person
33. Barbados $14787.35 per person
34. Kuwait $14382.81 per person
35. Czech Republic $14020.58 per person
36. Equatorial Guinea $13516.87 per person
37. Saint Kitts and Nevis $12898.89 per person
38. Hungary $12383.76 per person
39. Argentina $11829.90 per person
40. Slovakia $11178.56 per person
41. Trinidad and Tobago $10595.82 per person
42. Antigua and Barbuda $10309.73 per person
43. Mauritius $9831.07 per person
44. Estonia $9797.26 per person
45. Saudi Arabia $9697.93 per person
46. South Africa $9408.75 per person
47. Chile $9141.27 per person
48. Malaysia $9136.99 per person
49. Poland $9056.85 per person
50. Uruguay $8818.37 per person
 
bill142
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RE: The Next Five Developed Nations?

Wed Apr 13, 2005 10:00 am

How can you consider China a developed country when some provinces are third world? They are developing yes, but developed no.
 
L410Turbolet
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RE: The Next Five Developed Nations?

Wed Apr 13, 2005 10:32 am

Bill,
it was REPUBLIC OF CHINA - commonly known as TAIWAN.
 
PDPsol
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RE: The Next Five Developed Nations?

Wed Apr 13, 2005 10:34 am

Guys,

Per capita income [nominal annual GDP/population] can be a flawed measure of socio-economic "development", especially when applied to a country with an overvalued currency. Pre-2002 Argentina comes to mind as a perfect example of this when its USD GDP instantly dropped from ~275 billion to ~125 billion following the collapse of the "Convertibility" regime and sovereign debt default.

Nonetheless, the GDP per capita numbers L.1011 provides above appear to be sensitized for purchasing power parity, a superior measure of evaluating economic activity.

As for the next nations to enter the ranks of the "developed world", I agree with L.1011's edited list and disagree with DIJKKIK; Portugal and Greece are widely considered to be developed nations. They have been members of the EU for several years and possess the material wealth to endow their citizens with economic security via substantial social programs.

Egypt and Lebanon, the two nations DIJKKIK compares Portugal and Greece to, do not generate nearly the level of economic activity per capita to ensure economic security for the bulk of their citizens. Also, comparing Lebanon to Egypt is an inane exercise in itself as one country [Egypt] has over 76 million people, the vast bulk living in marginal conditions and a low degree of political freedom, while the other [Lebanon] has 3.8 million inhabitants living in an increasingly free political and economic environment.

I would agree the Baltic states + Czech Republic + Hungary would be first in Europe to make the "jump", while Chile is the best positioned in Latin America to join the developed ranks [an opinion the Economist stated only last week]. Uruguay also possesses all the social criteriae to join the developed ranks and is growing out of the economic crisis Jaysit alludes to in his post [the republic successfully rescheduled its debt with private holders in 2003, has a new socialist government, and is growing quickly].

KBUF - Venezuela may possess vast crude oil and natural gas reserves, but this wealth will not translate to economic development as long as wack-jobs like Chavez are involved in the nation's chaotic political scene.

Alessandro - Brazil's population approaches 180 million and it dominates the South American continent, with the world's 11-largest economy. Also, the country's activity is diversified, with an active and growing consumer-based economy. Nonetheless, the nation's vast income disparities will take years to narrow for the bulk of Brazilians to realize middle class socio-economic conditions.
 
misbeehavin
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RE: The Next Five Developed Nations?

Wed Apr 13, 2005 11:48 am

Quoting Bill142 (Reply 19):
How can you consider China a developed country when some provinces are third world? They are developing yes, but developed no.

That was a reference to Taiwan. But South Africa surely doesn't belong on the developed list!
 
JGPH1A
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RE: The Next Five Developed Nations?

Wed Apr 13, 2005 4:41 pm

Quoting Misbeehavin (Reply 22):
But South Africa surely doesn't belong on the developed list!

Why not ? Its a very subjective list anyway, and SA is above Chile in the per capita GDP list, and Chile is developed by any sensible standard. SA has fully developed telecoms, road, rail, air traffic (including one of the few airlines in the world to fly to all inhabited continents), port and pipeline infrastructure, is a net food exporter, is a net electricity exporter, all piped water is potable everywhere in the country, has fully developed ecological policies and infrastructure, nuclear power stations (at least there used to be), a fairly capable and relatively uncorrupt civil service (thank you, Afrikaners !), and fully democratic political structures (so far). SA has a well-equipped and largely apolitical defense force capable of at least regional force projection. It is also the only nuclear power to have renounced and dismantled all its nuclear weapons.

Sure there is poverty, and AIDS is a big problem, but preventable diseases are fully controlled (you don't need yellow fever or cholera innoculations to visit SA, unlike Brazil or the rest or sub-Saharan Africa).

If SA is not "developed", it's pretty darn close !

As for Botswana - nice idea, but not really ever likely. Botwana is too closely dependent on SA, and lacks serious manufacturing and non-primary-resource based economic activity.
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AR1300
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RE: The Next Five Developed Nations?

Wed Apr 13, 2005 4:49 pm

Quoting L.1011 (Thread starter):
Uruguay: Uruguay is another liberal democracy. A blend of offshore banking, agriculture, and tourism bolster a strong economy. Population density is low.

You have no clue what you are talking about.Uruguay just came out of a crisis like we had in 2001.They don't even have an steady economy model.
And agriculture is pretty much what to do there as the industry is not very developed.Plus, half of them already crossed the pond and are here.
the only part that you got right is the tourism part.Punta del Este rocks!!

Mike.
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L410Turbolet
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RE: The Next Five Developed Nations?

Wed Apr 13, 2005 5:09 pm

I don't know what is the source of this ranking and I agree that per capita GDP does not necessarily tell everything about given country's economy. Nevertheless I find it very interesting to see that some "new" EU members have already skipped the "old" ones.

19. United Kingdom $23369.80 per person
20. Israel $20518.15 per person
21. Cyprus $20475.41 per person
22. Singapore $20353.27 per person
23. United Arab Emirates $19679.50 per person
24. New Zealand $19461.91 per person
25. Spain $19108.63 per person
26. Slovenia $17823.22 per person
27. Bahamas, The $17480.34 per person
28. Portugal $17125.28 per person
29. Korea, South $17016.28 per person
30. Malta $16732.43 per person
31. Greece $16341.66 per person
32. Bahrain $15137.02 per person
33. Barbados $14787.35 per person
34. Kuwait $14382.81 per person
35. Czech Republic $14020.58 per person
 
NUAir
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RE: The Next Five Developed Nations?

Wed Apr 13, 2005 10:05 pm

How is dividing the GDP of a nation by its population an indication of development? If you happen to have a country on a plot of land with billions of barrels of oil underneath but all the money is being spent by the royal family on Cartier while thousands of people starve it doesn't seem like a great way to measure development.

I have seen sections of Detroit and Chicago that look a lot worse off than anything I ever saw in Nigeria, Ghana or Honduras. And how many Americans don't even have health care?

If you include crime statistics and other such things I think you get a better indication of how all people are doing in a country (not just the 5% with all the money). I say use average life expectancy as that includes all aspects; access to food, housing, health care, crime, education, work environment, etc...

Here are my rankings:

1. Andorra 83.49 years
2. Macau 81.87 years
3. San Marino 81.43 years
4. Japan 80.93 years
5. Singapore 80.42 years
6. Australia 80.13 years
7. Guernsey 80.04 years
8. Switzerland 79.99 years
9. Sweden 79.97 years
10. Hong Kong 79.93 years
11. Canada 79.83 years
12. Iceland 79.8 years
13. Cayman Islands 79.67 years
14. Italy 79.4 years
15. Gibraltar 79.38 years
16. France 79.28 years
17. Monaco 79.27 years
18. Liechtenstein 79.25 years
19. Spain 79.23 years
20. Norway 79.09 years
21. Israel 79.02 years
22. Jersey 78.93 years
23. Faroe Islands 78.9 years
24. Greece 78.89 years
25. Aruba 78.83 years
26. Netherlands 78.74 years
27. Martinique 78.72 years
28. Virgin Islands 78.59 years
29. Malta 78.43 years
30. Germany 78.42 years
31. Montserrat 78.36 years
32. New Zealand 78.32 years
33. Belgium 78.29 years
34. Guam 78.27 years
35. Austria 78.17 years
36. United Kingdom 78.16 years
37. Saint Pierre and Miquelon 78.11 years
38. Man, Isle of 77.98 years
39. Finland 77.92 years
40. Jordan 77.88 years
41. Luxembourg 77.66 years
42. Guadeloupe 77.53 years
43. Bermuda 77.41 years
44. Saint Helena 77.38 years
45. Ireland 77.35 years
46. Cyprus 77.27 years
47. Puerto Rico 77.26 years
48. United States 77.14 years
49. Denmark 77.1 years
50. Taiwan 76.87 years
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ly7e7
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RE: The Next Five Developed Nations?

Wed Apr 13, 2005 11:29 pm

Quoting NUair (Reply 26):
I say use average life expectancy as that includes all aspects

You can't do that. Consider this: UK is more developed than Israel, yet life expectancy in UK is lower due to several aspects as living habits (i.e excessive drinking) and affordable medical care.
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jaysit
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RE: The Next Five Developed Nations?

Wed Apr 13, 2005 11:47 pm

I would consider Chile as a developed nation, considering that it is pretty close to being includd in NAFTA.

Mexico is in NAFTA. A party to NAFTA does not imply First World status.

Quoting Jaysit (Reply 4):
Latvia, Slovakia, Lithuania, Estonia, and the Czech Republic are all in the low $ 4000s.

CZECH REPUBLIC: $11,700 US
Slovakia:$8,500 US


Your higher numbers are purchasing power parity (PPP). Actual PCI of Slovakia and the Czech republic are in the low 4000s. If you look at India, for instance, a bonafide third world developing economy, PCI is $ 550, but purchasing power parity is about $ 2100. One marker of a first world economy is that the differences between PCI and PPP are marginal.
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prosa
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RE: The Next Five Developed Nations?

Thu Apr 14, 2005 12:21 am

Quoting NUair (Reply 26):
If you include crime statistics and other such things I think you get a better indication of how all people are doing in a country (not just the 5% with all the money). I say use average life expectancy as that includes all aspects; access to food, housing, health care, crime, education, work environment, etc...

Life expectancy indeed may be a reasonably good proxy for overall level of development, but a word of caution is in order. If a country has both a long life expectancy and a low birth rate, which often as not is the usual state of affairs, demographic pressures may lead to all sorts of troubles in the not-too-distant future, possibly even a decline in its standard of living.
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MaverickM11
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RE: The Next Five Developed Nations?

Thu Apr 14, 2005 12:32 am

Maybe it would help if someone defined "developed" before anyone continues...
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Derico
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RE: The Next Five Developed Nations?

Thu Apr 14, 2005 1:08 am

Quote by Jaysit #28:

"...One marker of a first world economy is that the differences between PCI and PPP are marginal..."



Yes and no. It's true that a relatively developed economy will have smaller differences between PPP and PCI because the currency has been stable for years and decades, and inflation is controlled, thus eliminating the distortions of mega-devaluations and the like. However, basing the PCI on the US dollar is not accurate either, like with the Czech Republic, etc.

I've said this many times, if we were to base the PCI of countries not on the US dollar but rather on the Euro and it's 2001 value (which is what they do with many PCI dollar statistics as they are not revised every year), you would discover that the US per capita income had shrunk more than 25% in the last 3-4 years.

Not many Americans, no matter how anti-Bush they might be, would say their incomes have shrunk by nearly 1/3. If that were true, the US would be in revolution mode about now. It's not their PCI that has fallen, is the purchasing power of their currency in relation to the currency used to value their PCI, in this case the Euro.

PPP is not a great assesment of overall development, but it is a fair basis to see what your salary will buy in your internal market, which is afterall all that matters to the salaried employee in the end.
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misbeehavin
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RE: The Next Five Developed Nations?

Thu Apr 14, 2005 12:25 pm

Quoting JGPH1A (Reply 23):
Why not ? Its a very subjective list anyway, and SA is above Chile in the per capita GDP list, and.... If SA is not "developed", it's pretty darn close !

Sorry, I didn't mean to offend. I've never been to South Africa, though I've gotten close: Botswana, Mozambique, Malawi, Zambia and Zimbabwe. I said ZA didn't belong on the most developed list because the many, many South African friends I have (Boers, 'English' and PDIs alike) all consider it to be a Third-World country. And the natives' opinions count for something!

I used to think Atlanta was packed full of Mexicans, Brazilians and Indians but I'm beginning to think the South Africans (or Zulu Nation as some of us affectionately call them!) will give them a run for their money!

[Edited 2005-04-14 05:38:20]
 
redngold
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RE: The Next Five Developed Nations?

Thu Apr 14, 2005 12:29 pm

Ohhhh.... Hey, Bush, I'd like my $33108.13, pleeeeeze!

PCI doesn't mean sh*t when you're below average and there's an elite class taking more than its share.


redngold
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Airlinerfreak
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RE: The Next Five Developed Nations?

Thu Apr 14, 2005 12:47 pm

I would have to say that Mexico would be first on my list because I see a great manufacturing potential in Mexico in such towns as Querataro and Monterey. I believe we will also notice that if we provide for jobs in Mexico they will stop coming up here for jobs.

Spain would also have to be high on my list with a booming economy and with the number of toursists traveling there rapidly increasing.

I would also have to say the UAE simply because

Quoting L.1011 (Thread starter):
Women enjoy equality, income taxes are non-existant, and poverty is rare. Freedom is extensive. Oil, natural gas, and seafood base the economy.

Lastly I would have to say Panama because with the increasing prices in fuel, boat is going to once again be the way of travel and all the boats going through there will bring even more money to Panama.

Lastly, I would have to pick South Africa because it is one of the most beautiful places on Earth.

[Edited 2005-04-14 05:54:39]

[Edited 2005-04-14 05:56:33]
 
prosa
Posts: 5389
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RE: The Next Five Developed Nations?

Thu Apr 14, 2005 12:57 pm

Quoting Airlinerfreak (Reply 34):
Spain would also have to be high on my list with a booming economy and with the number of toursists traveling there rapidly increasing.

Spain already is a developed country.
"Let me think about it" = the coward's way of saying "no"
 
misbeehavin
Posts: 607
Joined: Thu Mar 24, 2005 3:49 am

RE: The Next Five Developed Nations?

Thu Apr 14, 2005 12:58 pm

Quoting Airlinerfreak (Reply 34):
I also believe Japan is going to be up there because of the demand for technology that we are going to start to see.

"Going to be"? "Going to start to see?"

I'm sorry, but are you talking about Japan's future?  crazy 

Japan has been one of the most developed countries in the world for some time now!
 
jaysit
Posts: 10185
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RE: The Next Five Developed Nations?

Thu Apr 14, 2005 1:14 pm

I've said this many times, if we were to base the PCI of countries not on the US dollar but rather on the Euro and it's 2001 value (which is what they do with many PCI dollar statistics as they are not revised every year), you would discover that the US per capita income had shrunk more than 25% in the last 3-4 years.

But global economic indicators ARE based on the US dollar. Plus, the dollar/euro disparity right now is temporary. Asian central banks that have allowed the US trade deficits to increase will have to step in, because their own economies have been propped up by our burgeoning deficits.

Besides, the Euro WILL come down. If the Euro stays where it is, the US could be faced with higher inflation and interest rates with a resulting stockmarket and property market crash. Concurrently, the high euro would result in European goods priced out of world markets. If the EU can't rely on exports to the US or to Asia for that matter, the slow EU recovery would reverse itself.
Atheism is Myth Understood.
 
JGPH1A
Posts: 15079
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RE: The Next Five Developed Nations?

Thu Apr 14, 2005 7:47 pm

Quoting Misbeehavin (Reply 32):
Sorry, I didn't mean to offend. I've never been to South Africa, though I've gotten close: Botswana, Mozambique, Malawi, Zambia and Zimbabwe. I

Don't worry, I wasn't offended - just a bit surprisedd  Smile

How is it you visited all those neighbouring states without actually visiting SA - some of them are pretty hard to get to without passing through JNB at some point ! It's not impossible, I know - were you deliberately avoid SA ?

Quoting Misbeehavin (Reply 32):
South African friends I have (Boers, 'English' and PDIs alike) all consider it to be a Third-World country. And the natives' opinions count for something!

As technically a native as well, I am in two minds - while SA is definitely not first world yet, it's WAY ahead of the pack against most 3rd World countries, and should not be lumped in with the likes of Zimbabwe and Somalia. In terms of generally being fairly civilised, it's way up there.

P.S. what is a PDI ?
Young and beautiful and thin and gorgeous AND BANNED ! Cya at airspaceonline.com, losers
 
misbeehavin
Posts: 607
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RE: The Next Five Developed Nations?

Thu Apr 14, 2005 11:23 pm

Quoting JGPH1A (Reply 38):
How is it you visited all those neighbouring states without actually visiting SA - some of them are pretty hard to get to without passing through JNB at some point ! It's not impossible, I know - were you deliberately avoid SA ?

This was several years ago, when I was travelling with family. My dad's always been the extra cautious type and I think he wanted to avoid South Africa for fear of getting into trouble or something. I'm not sure of his reasons, so I'll have to check with him.

I've wanted to go there myself for a long time now and I think I might finally do it this year. I hope to visit either SA or Brazil this year!

Quoting JGPH1A (Reply 38):
P.S. what is a PDI ?

Apparently, it's an SA term! PDI - Previously Disadvantaged Individual. Talk about PC!


Whenever I'm in town, I meet up with a whole bunch of SA friends I have and we go to an SA restaurant, drink Castle and talk rubbish. It's great fun!

I asked why there were so many of them here. One of my friends, a Dutchman, said that there's a long-running joke within the SA community here: The South Africans love Atlanta because it reminds them so much of home. Both the crime and the population mix!
 
JGPH1A
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RE: The Next Five Developed Nations?

Fri Apr 15, 2005 12:39 am

Quoting Misbeehavin (Reply 39):
The South Africans love Atlanta because it reminds them so much of home. Both the crime and the population mix!

An SA friend of mine lived in Atlanta, and remarked exactly the same thing  Smile - he also noted that segregation was alive and well and living in ATL, there were just no signs up. Talk about home from home !
Young and beautiful and thin and gorgeous AND BANNED ! Cya at airspaceonline.com, losers
 
misbeehavin
Posts: 607
Joined: Thu Mar 24, 2005 3:49 am

RE: The Next Five Developed Nations?

Fri Apr 15, 2005 8:58 am

Quoting JGPH1A (Reply 40):
An SA friend of mine lived in Atlanta, and remarked exactly the same thing - he also noted that segregation was alive and well and living in ATL, there were just no signs up. Talk about home from home !

Ha ha! That must be it. I can't imagine what else it would be that would caose so many South Africans to congregate here. Or maybe a few started the trend and many others followed. "Qui se ressemble..."

It isn't so overtly bad in most parts of the city itself, but it does exist. I have noticed that it's often simply seen as a part of life. One of the reasons for it not being overt, I'm told, is that every other person is a "damn Yankee implant" (or a southern African one)!

I swear, I have more friends from SA, Namibia, Zimbabwe and Botswana than from anywhere else!
 
Russophile
Posts: 1304
Joined: Tue Jan 27, 2004 9:22 am

RE: The Next Five Developed Nations?

Fri Apr 15, 2005 11:13 am

Quoting L410Turbolet (Reply 25):
21. Cyprus $20475.41 per person

This is due in no small part to a developed nation which was left off the list -- the Russian Federation.

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 30):
Maybe it would help if someone defined "developed" before anyone continues...

There is no such definition. Each definition will differ from the other. Organisations such as the World Bank have theres, whilst others such as the OECD will have theres. There is no hard and fast rule. One thing which should be avoided is the use of "First World" and "Third World" -- these terms are an invention of the US government during the Cold War Era and really have no relevance today. During the Cold War era, developed nations such as the USSR didn't have a designation of 1st or 3rd world, but rather one of the 2nd world, a label which was basically given to all Warsaw Pact nations. A bit stupid seeing as Turkey was considered First World (due to their NATO membership), but is less developed as the USSR and the other Eastern European countries.
 
flybyguy
Posts: 1421
Joined: Sun Jun 27, 2004 12:52 pm

RE: The Next Five Developed Nations?

Fri Apr 15, 2005 4:07 pm

Quoting Alessandro (Reply 6):
Brazil will definitely be a 1st class nation, if it´s not already?

Ha... a nation full of rogue police officers and massive lawless zones? I would sooner think Antarctica was a developed nation. Also, ultra wide income disparities with the 'haves' and the 'have-nots' split solidly between racial lines. That sounds like America 150 years ago.

Quoting NUair (Reply 26):
If you include crime statistics and other such things I think you get a better indication of how all people are doing in a country (not just the 5% with all the money).

That is probably the most sane thing I've heard this week. Welcome to my respected users list. I grow weary of people using money as the ultimate measure of a country. What good is money if you lead a stressful life in poor health only to meet your maker through violent demise? Development is quality of life, safety and longevity not dollars and cents. I applaud your sensibilities NUair.
"Are you a pretender... or a thoroughbred?!" - Professor Matt Miller
 
AeroVodochody
Posts: 525
Joined: Tue Feb 22, 2005 3:24 am

RE: The Next Five Developed Nations?

Sat Apr 16, 2005 7:16 am

Quoting Russophile (Reply 42):
developed nation which was left off the list -- the Russian Federation.

How is it developed?
GDP: 3,030 USD (PPP)
Life Expectancy: 65
Infant Mortality:23/1000
Annual Population Growth Rate: -0.3%
Try not to be jealous, we can't all be Czech.
 
Russophile
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RE: The Next Five Developed Nations?

Sat Apr 16, 2005 12:08 pm

Quoting AeroVodochody (Reply 44):
How is it developed?
GDP: 3,030 USD (PPP)
Life Expectancy: 65
Infant Mortality:23/1000
Annual Population Growth Rate: -0.3%

Geez, don't forget to mention that Russia has an economy which is in the top 10 in the world. Don't forget to mention that Russia will soon overtake the UK in terms of overall GDP. And don't forget that Russia is still making the change from being a part of the USSR to a 'capitalist' nation.

GDP per capita is low at the moment. Correct. But it is increasing by a healthy percentage every year. And don't forget that the economy in 1998 collapsed due to the pisspoor management of Yeltsin. The economy is rebounding now under Putin.

Life expectancy is also low, but again is increasing every year. There is a ten year gap between the Russian female and male life expectancy. Let's see. Many Russian men smoke. Theres one major cause. Many Russian men drink (alcoholism). There's another major cause. Many Russian men have been dying in civil conflicts (i.e. Chechnya). There's another major cause. Traffic accidents kill over 30,000 people annually (mostly men). There's another major cause.

Your infant mortality rates are wrong. This info is at least several years old. And a high infant mortality rate is to be expected in a country which has gone from 'communism' to 'capitalism', especially as the once-funded national health care system collapses. But again, this rate is falling. Infant mortality rate for 2004 is estimated to be 15/1000 -- every year this figure decreases.

The population of Russia is stagnating yes. But this is because people are not breeding. To maintain the current population, the people need to maintain a figure of 2.5 children. But this rate is currently sitting at below 1.5 children. Due in no small part to the type of society that a 'capitalist' system demands. People need to work blah blah blah. And Russian women are having their children later in life because of this.

But still, none of the information you gave shows that Russia is not a developed nation.
 
qr332
Posts: 2592
Joined: Tue Apr 13, 2004 11:16 pm

RE: The Next Five Developed Nations?

Sat Apr 16, 2005 5:46 pm

Quoting Alessandro (Reply 6):
AE, are you kidding? It�s main income is trade, seafood sounds pretty wrong?

So if a country has trade as its main income, that makes it not fit to be developed? I fail to see the logic in that statment. The UAE has a high per capita income, it's economy is developing very strongly, and within what, 32 years, they have gone from being a desert country with nothing to a country that is quickly developing with more and more political freedom, an excellent economy, and high standards of living. Its 2003 GDP per capita was $23,200, which puts it as the 20th highest on L.1011's list, above Israel and below the UK. The UAE might not be a fully developed country yet, but they are definatley on the fast track to getting there.

Quoting NYCFlyer (Reply 11):
But you could also argue that some countries are economically developed but have no political freedoms - like the Gulf Arab states (UAE, Kuwait, Qatar) - are these "developed"?

They can definatley be considered economically developed, and they are developing more and more politically - Kuwait is giving much more freedom to woman, Qatar has drawn up a new constitution that has a lot of focus on freedom, the UAE I have explained above.

Quoting L.1011 (Reply 18):
Well, here are your top fifty in per capita GDP:

http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/print/qa.html

Qatar has a GDP Per Capita of $21,300 in 2003, putting it also between the UK and Israel. Qatar is definatley going to become a developed country soon, and that is if its not there already. We have very high standards of living here, political freedom that is increasing more and more, a government that is dedicated to developing Qatar's economy (and they are doing a damn good job at it). Also, if you see the universities thread, I have listed the universities that have opened here in Qatar, which is a population of 850,000 only. The government is focusing a lot on education, and they are definatley heading in the right direction.
"The greatest threat to knowledge is not ignorance, it is the illusion of knowledge."
 
ly7e7
Posts: 2233
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RE: The Next Five Developed Nations?

Sat Apr 16, 2005 8:00 pm

Russia is still struggling to establish a modern market economy and achieve strong economic growth.

In contrast to its trading partners in Central Europe - which were able within 3 to 5 years to overcome the initial production declines that accompanied the launch of market reforms - Russia saw its economy contract for five years, as the executive and legislature dithered over the implementation of many of the basic foundations of a market economy.

Russia achieved a slight recovery in 1997, but the government's stubborn budget deficits and the country's poor business climate made it vulnerable when the global financial crisis swept through in 1998. The crisis culminated in the August depreciation of the ruble, a debt default by the government, and a sharp deterioration in living standards for most of the population. The economy subsequently has rebounded, growing by an average of more than 6% annually in 1999-2002 on the back of higher oil prices and the 60% depreciation of the ruble in 1998.

These GDP numbers, along with a renewed government effort to advance lagging structural reforms, have raised business and investor confidence over Russia's prospects in its second decade of transition. Yet serious problems persist. Oil, natural gas, metals, and timber account for more than 80% of exports, leaving the country vulnerable to swings in world prices. Russia's industrial base is increasingly dilapidated and must be replaced or modernized if the country is to maintain vigorous economic growth.

Other problems include a weak banking system, a poor business climate that discourages both domestic and foreign investors, corruption, local and regional government intervention in the courts, and widespread lack of trust in institutions. In 2003 President Putin further tightened his control over the "oligarchs," especially in the realm of political expression.


Russia is certainly developing, yet it's light years away from being developed

http://www.dbresearch.com/servlet/re...93a21927a9?rwkey=u895&%24rwframe=0
2 things are endless: ignorance and space
 
Russophile
Posts: 1304
Joined: Tue Jan 27, 2004 9:22 am

RE: The Next Five Developed Nations?

Sun Apr 17, 2005 2:10 pm

Quoting LY7E7 (Reply 47):
Russia is still struggling to establish a modern market economy and achieve strong economic growth.

Who said that you have to have a market economy or economic growth to be developed? Additionally, you do not have to be 'democratic' and 'capitalist' to be 'developed'.

BTW, Russia is experiencing strong economic growth. You obviously didn't look at the information on the site you actually linked to?

Tripling of GDP in 5 years. Tripling of GDP/Capita in 5 years. Lowering of unemployment rate by 2% in 4 years.
 
flybyguy
Posts: 1421
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RE: The Next Five Developed Nations?

Sun Apr 17, 2005 2:34 pm

Quoting QR332 (Reply 46):
They can definitely be considered economically developed, and they are developing more and more politically - Kuwait is giving much more freedom to woman, Qatar has drawn up a new constitution that has a lot of focus on freedom, the UAE I have explained above.

Do more conservative countries in the Mid-East have problems with the more progressive countries such as Jordan, UAE, Qatar, Kuwait? Especially in terms of rights of women? I have always wondered why extremists have not caused trouble in these countries, but I presume it is due to good security and greater national unity.
"Are you a pretender... or a thoroughbred?!" - Professor Matt Miller

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